Posted on 10/23/2007 5:50:12 PM PDT by GraniteStateConservative
vs.
Curt Schilling vs. Ubaldo Jimenez
AccuScore has run more than 10,000 simulations for every World Series game for Yahoo! Sports, calculating how each team's performance changes in response to game conditions, opponent's abilities, roster moves, weather and more. Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages, player statistics and a variety of game-changing scenarios.
Boston winning 66.8 percent of World Series simulations
AccuScore simulates each playoff game and the entire playoff series 10,000 times. This season, the team that has won over 50 percent of series simulations won their series with one exception: New York won 51 percent of simulations over Cleveland. AccuScore correctly projected Colorado to upset both Philadelphia and Arizona, but in simulations vs. Boston, the Red Sox ride home-field advantage and the dominant pitching of Josh Beckett to win 66.8 percent of series simulations.
The forecast below is based on the designated starters and was run on data available as of October 23. AccuScore's proprietary algorithm weights each game's data, and as each game is played the simulation winning percentages will change. The simulation winning percentages also will change if the projected starters change.
| Game | Starters | COL | BOS | |
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| Game 1 | Francis vs. Beckett | 31.2% | 68.8% | |
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| Game 2 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 3 | Matsuzaka vs. Fogg | 52.1% | 49.2% | |
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| Game 4 | Lester vs. Cook | 56.3% | 43.7% | |
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| Game 5 | Beckett vs. Francis | 45.9% | 54.1% | |
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| Game 6 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 7 | Fogg vs. Matsuzaka | 39.0% | 61.0% |
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| WIN SERIES | 33.2% | 66.8% |
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PITCHERS (11): Josh Beckett, Manny Delcarmen, Eric Gagne, Jon Lester, Javier Lopez, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon, Curt Schilling, Kyle Snyder, Mike Timlin.
CATCHERS (2): Doug Mirabelli, Jason Varitek.
INFIELDERS (7): Alex Cora, Eric Hinske, Mike Lowell, Julio Lugo, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis.
OUTFIELDERS (5): Coco Crisp, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Bobby Kielty, Manny Ramirez.
CATCHERS (2): Chris Iannetta, Yorvit Torrealba.
INFIELDERS (5): Garrett Atkins, Jamey Carroll, Todd Helton, Kazuo Matsui, Troy Tulowitzki.
OUTFIELDERS (7): Jeff Baker, Brad Hawpe, Matt Holliday, Seth Smith, Ryan Spilborghs, Cory Sullivan, Willy Taveras.
He came up big!!
Thank You.
Come on Pap ... 3 more outs.
As long as Pap pitches the 9th.
I like the total dominance of a sweep. Besides, not sure my heart can take a real squeaker.
Night all.. Red Sox Rule!
The Sox swept a Cardinals team in 04 that had won 105 games, so the Rockies shouldn’t be much trouble.
Go Red Sox...bring it on home!!
Not many guys left on the Red Sox that also played for the 2004 team.
Jaysus. You never know when to stop do you?
This should be a K.
So what sort of pen do we have available tomorrow? You realize that Francona has Snyder and Gagne as possible choices.
If ya gunna dish it ya better be able to take it.
Thanks! It isn’t easy but consider that to all of us baseball is STILL the grand ‘ol game, it’s hard not to be watching.
Tribe will be there next year. $61 mill payroll gives us some options.
What I found startling is 16 of Colorado’s 25-man roster was home grown in their system. By contrast the Indians had 9, and Boston 7.
Joe Buck said it best- experience and depth have aided the Sox tonight.
i found hilarious myself
AND THE FINAL SCORE
BOSTON RED SOX 10
COLORADO ROCKIES 5
Boston has 3-0 lead in the ‘07 WS
Next game Sun night 8:30 pm
There will be riverdancing in the mile high tonight
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