Posted on 10/23/2007 5:50:12 PM PDT by GraniteStateConservative
vs.
Curt Schilling vs. Ubaldo Jimenez
AccuScore has run more than 10,000 simulations for every World Series game for Yahoo! Sports, calculating how each team's performance changes in response to game conditions, opponent's abilities, roster moves, weather and more. Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages, player statistics and a variety of game-changing scenarios.
Boston winning 66.8 percent of World Series simulations
AccuScore simulates each playoff game and the entire playoff series 10,000 times. This season, the team that has won over 50 percent of series simulations won their series with one exception: New York won 51 percent of simulations over Cleveland. AccuScore correctly projected Colorado to upset both Philadelphia and Arizona, but in simulations vs. Boston, the Red Sox ride home-field advantage and the dominant pitching of Josh Beckett to win 66.8 percent of series simulations.
The forecast below is based on the designated starters and was run on data available as of October 23. AccuScore's proprietary algorithm weights each game's data, and as each game is played the simulation winning percentages will change. The simulation winning percentages also will change if the projected starters change.
| Game | Starters | COL | BOS | |
|
|
||||
| Game 1 | Francis vs. Beckett | 31.2% | 68.8% | |
|
|
||||
| Game 2 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
|
|
||||
| Game 3 | Matsuzaka vs. Fogg | 52.1% | 49.2% | |
|
|
||||
| Game 4 | Lester vs. Cook | 56.3% | 43.7% | |
|
|
||||
| Game 5 | Beckett vs. Francis | 45.9% | 54.1% | |
|
|
||||
| Game 6 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
|
|
||||
| Game 7 | Fogg vs. Matsuzaka | 39.0% | 61.0% |
|
| WIN SERIES | 33.2% | 66.8% |
|
PITCHERS (11): Josh Beckett, Manny Delcarmen, Eric Gagne, Jon Lester, Javier Lopez, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon, Curt Schilling, Kyle Snyder, Mike Timlin.
CATCHERS (2): Doug Mirabelli, Jason Varitek.
INFIELDERS (7): Alex Cora, Eric Hinske, Mike Lowell, Julio Lugo, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis.
OUTFIELDERS (5): Coco Crisp, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Bobby Kielty, Manny Ramirez.
CATCHERS (2): Chris Iannetta, Yorvit Torrealba.
INFIELDERS (5): Garrett Atkins, Jamey Carroll, Todd Helton, Kazuo Matsui, Troy Tulowitzki.
OUTFIELDERS (7): Jeff Baker, Brad Hawpe, Matt Holliday, Seth Smith, Ryan Spilborghs, Cory Sullivan, Willy Taveras.
Cora was injected into pitcher’s spot; Paps would bat second in lineup
We shall see. Actually, strike that. The double switch was with Drew and Shorty so no issue with Papelbon needing to hit. If he does then 6 guys batted before him.
Come on Sox ....one more run.
I’m sure looking forward to it. I have never been to a Pats game and this town sure will be fun once we win the series.
Mikey wants more runs!
Payback would suck on that one.
Sox current batting order
Ellsbury
Papelbon
Youk
Manny
Lowell
Cora
Varitek
Lugo
Crisp
Smart play by mike
3rd base steal by Lowell—another free taco? I thought I heard them say that if another base was stolen there would
be one more Taco Bell giveaway
last steal of third in playoffs by Juan Beniquez of Sox
in ‘75 ALCS (I remember him!)
run scores ! 10-5
Lowell cashes in on the steal - great baseball.
Add another run. Sox back in double digits
no better time to be a sports fan in boston/new england. we have the sox, the pats the BC football and hockey i belive and the celtics are looking sharper and the bruins arent doing half bad
3 outs away from win #3
fifth time in postseason they’ve scored 10 or more runs
Helton, Atkins, and Hawpe vs. Paps the Riverdance man
That extra run was game. No way they score 5 runs off Papelbon. Red Sox about to go up 3 game to 0.
How about UConn beating South Florida today.
I think we are going to win this game.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.