Posted on 10/23/2007 5:50:12 PM PDT by GraniteStateConservative
vs.
Curt Schilling vs. Ubaldo Jimenez
AccuScore has run more than 10,000 simulations for every World Series game for Yahoo! Sports, calculating how each team's performance changes in response to game conditions, opponent's abilities, roster moves, weather and more. Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages, player statistics and a variety of game-changing scenarios.
Boston winning 66.8 percent of World Series simulations
AccuScore simulates each playoff game and the entire playoff series 10,000 times. This season, the team that has won over 50 percent of series simulations won their series with one exception: New York won 51 percent of simulations over Cleveland. AccuScore correctly projected Colorado to upset both Philadelphia and Arizona, but in simulations vs. Boston, the Red Sox ride home-field advantage and the dominant pitching of Josh Beckett to win 66.8 percent of series simulations.
The forecast below is based on the designated starters and was run on data available as of October 23. AccuScore's proprietary algorithm weights each game's data, and as each game is played the simulation winning percentages will change. The simulation winning percentages also will change if the projected starters change.
| Game | Starters | COL | BOS | |
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| Game 1 | Francis vs. Beckett | 31.2% | 68.8% | |
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| Game 2 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 3 | Matsuzaka vs. Fogg | 52.1% | 49.2% | |
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| Game 4 | Lester vs. Cook | 56.3% | 43.7% | |
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| Game 5 | Beckett vs. Francis | 45.9% | 54.1% | |
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| Game 6 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 7 | Fogg vs. Matsuzaka | 39.0% | 61.0% |
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| WIN SERIES | 33.2% | 66.8% |
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PITCHERS (11): Josh Beckett, Manny Delcarmen, Eric Gagne, Jon Lester, Javier Lopez, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon, Curt Schilling, Kyle Snyder, Mike Timlin.
CATCHERS (2): Doug Mirabelli, Jason Varitek.
INFIELDERS (7): Alex Cora, Eric Hinske, Mike Lowell, Julio Lugo, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis.
OUTFIELDERS (5): Coco Crisp, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Bobby Kielty, Manny Ramirez.
CATCHERS (2): Chris Iannetta, Yorvit Torrealba.
INFIELDERS (5): Garrett Atkins, Jamey Carroll, Todd Helton, Kazuo Matsui, Troy Tulowitzki.
OUTFIELDERS (7): Jeff Baker, Brad Hawpe, Matt Holliday, Seth Smith, Ryan Spilborghs, Cory Sullivan, Willy Taveras.
A Nice time in Beantown tomorrow, when the Red Sox win the World Series.
I am annoyed, but I always watch the Series. It’s the last games we’ll get for 5-6 months.
Not terrible if he hits his spots. Didn’t hit his spots + batter didn’t bite. Sucks being a pitcher sometimes.
BTW, the first thing I saw after getting home from work was Holliday’s HR. The gloat was unintentional.
I don't think I'm going to make it through this one!!!!!
Hope Pap can get it done.
This means that if the Sox get anything going in their half of the 9th (and they might need it the way this game is going) Papelbon is 5th batter due up.
Damn you Delcarmen. Trust your stuff and throw strikes.
One pitch—caught—and it’s John Denver on the bumper
music. To the ninth!
Big out!!!!
You work this late on a Saturday? That certainly sux.
...
Ohhhhh....Holliday bit....
I’m looking forward to hearing “Dirty Water” as bumper music at the end of the next inning. ;-)
Pap’s going deep!
No, he’ll walk up there without a bat, as he should.
Helton will be the big out to get. If you get through him then the rest of the line up is easier to take out since he is the big .OBP guy for that team.
Pap swings the bat...you never no.
LaTroy Hawkins in to pitch
(La Troy? Sounds like LaChoy—remember those old ads,
“LaTroy makes Chinese food...swing American”)
LaCHOY that should say (in jingle)
Mikey!
And risk Pap getting hit?
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