Posted on 10/23/2007 5:50:12 PM PDT by GraniteStateConservative
vs.
Curt Schilling vs. Ubaldo Jimenez
AccuScore has run more than 10,000 simulations for every World Series game for Yahoo! Sports, calculating how each team's performance changes in response to game conditions, opponent's abilities, roster moves, weather and more. Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages, player statistics and a variety of game-changing scenarios.
Boston winning 66.8 percent of World Series simulations
AccuScore simulates each playoff game and the entire playoff series 10,000 times. This season, the team that has won over 50 percent of series simulations won their series with one exception: New York won 51 percent of simulations over Cleveland. AccuScore correctly projected Colorado to upset both Philadelphia and Arizona, but in simulations vs. Boston, the Red Sox ride home-field advantage and the dominant pitching of Josh Beckett to win 66.8 percent of series simulations.
The forecast below is based on the designated starters and was run on data available as of October 23. AccuScore's proprietary algorithm weights each game's data, and as each game is played the simulation winning percentages will change. The simulation winning percentages also will change if the projected starters change.
| Game | Starters | COL | BOS | |
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| Game 1 | Francis vs. Beckett | 31.2% | 68.8% | |
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| Game 2 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 3 | Matsuzaka vs. Fogg | 52.1% | 49.2% | |
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| Game 4 | Lester vs. Cook | 56.3% | 43.7% | |
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| Game 5 | Beckett vs. Francis | 45.9% | 54.1% | |
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| Game 6 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 7 | Fogg vs. Matsuzaka | 39.0% | 61.0% |
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| WIN SERIES | 33.2% | 66.8% |
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PITCHERS (11): Josh Beckett, Manny Delcarmen, Eric Gagne, Jon Lester, Javier Lopez, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon, Curt Schilling, Kyle Snyder, Mike Timlin.
CATCHERS (2): Doug Mirabelli, Jason Varitek.
INFIELDERS (7): Alex Cora, Eric Hinske, Mike Lowell, Julio Lugo, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis.
OUTFIELDERS (5): Coco Crisp, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Bobby Kielty, Manny Ramirez.
CATCHERS (2): Chris Iannetta, Yorvit Torrealba.
INFIELDERS (5): Garrett Atkins, Jamey Carroll, Todd Helton, Kazuo Matsui, Troy Tulowitzki.
OUTFIELDERS (7): Jeff Baker, Brad Hawpe, Matt Holliday, Seth Smith, Ryan Spilborghs, Cory Sullivan, Willy Taveras.
Lugo!
A sensational catch by Julio.
on back to back plays the Rockies DIDN’T hit ‘em where they ain’t. They found the gloves of Jacoby and Julio instead.
6-2 Sox
LUGO!!
The ump has decided that the outer part of the plate is no longer a strike.
Damn, that could've been three runs. Timlin is lucky...
Some Sargent Major!
You know it when things are going your way when something like that catch is made.
415 feet is a lo.....o...n...g out. Nice play by Julio to end the inning.
No joke!
Some Sargent Major!
Exactly right.... he's been doing the same thing all season long.
And the General is too afraid to criticize the Sargent Major...
He’s started calling pitches balls that he was giving strikes to earlier.
Chris Carter is a very mediocre fielder. He’s WMP with an option year to hang out in Pawtucket.
Out bats have done nothing the past 4 innings....
Only had 1 big inning.
Grrr... I hate Matt Herges!
That’s all the Sox should need. Just bring in the arms.
He’s been very effective this series.
Sox need a shut down inning from Timlin/Delcarmen so they can get a PH in for the #9 spot and not have to burn Okijima. Problem is the PH choices we have are not great. Kielty, Hinske, Cora or Crisp and if you use Crisp then you have to double switch Manny out of the line up and replace his slot with the pitcher.
Colorado has finally woken up.
Sucks when your starter can’t go more than 5 plus. Burns out the pen.
However, I think the Red Sox bullpen should hold onto this 4 run lead with 3 innings left.
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