Posted on 10/23/2007 5:50:12 PM PDT by GraniteStateConservative
vs.
Curt Schilling vs. Ubaldo Jimenez
AccuScore has run more than 10,000 simulations for every World Series game for Yahoo! Sports, calculating how each team's performance changes in response to game conditions, opponent's abilities, roster moves, weather and more. Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages, player statistics and a variety of game-changing scenarios.
Boston winning 66.8 percent of World Series simulations
AccuScore simulates each playoff game and the entire playoff series 10,000 times. This season, the team that has won over 50 percent of series simulations won their series with one exception: New York won 51 percent of simulations over Cleveland. AccuScore correctly projected Colorado to upset both Philadelphia and Arizona, but in simulations vs. Boston, the Red Sox ride home-field advantage and the dominant pitching of Josh Beckett to win 66.8 percent of series simulations.
The forecast below is based on the designated starters and was run on data available as of October 23. AccuScore's proprietary algorithm weights each game's data, and as each game is played the simulation winning percentages will change. The simulation winning percentages also will change if the projected starters change.
| Game | Starters | COL | BOS | |
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| Game 1 | Francis vs. Beckett | 31.2% | 68.8% | |
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| Game 2 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 3 | Matsuzaka vs. Fogg | 52.1% | 49.2% | |
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| Game 4 | Lester vs. Cook | 56.3% | 43.7% | |
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| Game 5 | Beckett vs. Francis | 45.9% | 54.1% | |
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| Game 6 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 7 | Fogg vs. Matsuzaka | 39.0% | 61.0% |
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| WIN SERIES | 33.2% | 66.8% |
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PITCHERS (11): Josh Beckett, Manny Delcarmen, Eric Gagne, Jon Lester, Javier Lopez, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon, Curt Schilling, Kyle Snyder, Mike Timlin.
CATCHERS (2): Doug Mirabelli, Jason Varitek.
INFIELDERS (7): Alex Cora, Eric Hinske, Mike Lowell, Julio Lugo, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis.
OUTFIELDERS (5): Coco Crisp, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Bobby Kielty, Manny Ramirez.
CATCHERS (2): Chris Iannetta, Yorvit Torrealba.
INFIELDERS (5): Garrett Atkins, Jamey Carroll, Todd Helton, Kazuo Matsui, Troy Tulowitzki.
OUTFIELDERS (7): Jeff Baker, Brad Hawpe, Matt Holliday, Seth Smith, Ryan Spilborghs, Cory Sullivan, Willy Taveras.
Very very very nice play Lugo!!
Love that Lowell - hope they resign him. If not - they’re crazy.
We’re okay. DiceK can get through 5.
Dice-K!! Nice job.
Time for a few more runs....the ole dagger to the heart routine.
Betcha said that about Damon too!!
I think 3 years is reasonable offer considering his age. He might want 4 and that’s too much for the Sox. Someone out there might take him though.
I would not go more than two years on a deal with Lowell unless a third or even fourth year was an option that the club could pass on.
If this game gets out of hand, expect the Rockies to drill Manny during one of his at-bats. There were already some rumblings about this after game 1.
The tough thing is that there aren’t any FA options at 3B— A-Rod and Lowell and that’s it (and that’s assuming A-Rod doesn’t take the extension from the Yanks). If A-rod does stay put, then it’s Lowell for about 8 teams or so who would desperately want him on their team— and the Yanks could offer to make him their 1B to increase the bidding. We need Lowell to give us a nice hometown discount because he can cash in if he wants with JD Drew contract numbers.
The front office said they will offer only two years. I think someone might offer him three. I really have no problem with three years, he is only 33
No, I didnt. I thought Damon wanted too many years.
Why Manny?
thats exactly right - who the hell are they going to get to play 3rd? And please...please no one suggest Arod. ( shudder)
What’s with the broken bats tonight? seems to be an awful lot of them.
Damon plays a position the Red Sox had farm depth at and a position that usually has FA depth, too. Lowell is the only true FA 3B this offseason who isn’t total garbage.
Dice K needs a rocking chair inning.
He did plenty of damage in game 1, and the Rockies were talking about making him a little less comfortable at the plate.
where have you been, buddy? I thought maybe you flew out to Denver!
Combination of cold weather and a lot of off-speed pitches.
If you wanna do that then you don’t wait until the series is over...makes no sense.
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