Posted on 10/23/2007 5:50:12 PM PDT by GraniteStateConservative
vs.
Curt Schilling vs. Ubaldo Jimenez
AccuScore has run more than 10,000 simulations for every World Series game for Yahoo! Sports, calculating how each team's performance changes in response to game conditions, opponent's abilities, roster moves, weather and more. Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages, player statistics and a variety of game-changing scenarios.
Boston winning 66.8 percent of World Series simulations
AccuScore simulates each playoff game and the entire playoff series 10,000 times. This season, the team that has won over 50 percent of series simulations won their series with one exception: New York won 51 percent of simulations over Cleveland. AccuScore correctly projected Colorado to upset both Philadelphia and Arizona, but in simulations vs. Boston, the Red Sox ride home-field advantage and the dominant pitching of Josh Beckett to win 66.8 percent of series simulations.
The forecast below is based on the designated starters and was run on data available as of October 23. AccuScore's proprietary algorithm weights each game's data, and as each game is played the simulation winning percentages will change. The simulation winning percentages also will change if the projected starters change.
| Game | Starters | COL | BOS | |
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| Game 1 | Francis vs. Beckett | 31.2% | 68.8% | |
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| Game 2 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 3 | Matsuzaka vs. Fogg | 52.1% | 49.2% | |
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| Game 4 | Lester vs. Cook | 56.3% | 43.7% | |
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| Game 5 | Beckett vs. Francis | 45.9% | 54.1% | |
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| Game 6 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 7 | Fogg vs. Matsuzaka | 39.0% | 61.0% |
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| WIN SERIES | 33.2% | 66.8% |
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PITCHERS (11): Josh Beckett, Manny Delcarmen, Eric Gagne, Jon Lester, Javier Lopez, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon, Curt Schilling, Kyle Snyder, Mike Timlin.
CATCHERS (2): Doug Mirabelli, Jason Varitek.
INFIELDERS (7): Alex Cora, Eric Hinske, Mike Lowell, Julio Lugo, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis.
OUTFIELDERS (5): Coco Crisp, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Bobby Kielty, Manny Ramirez.
CATCHERS (2): Chris Iannetta, Yorvit Torrealba.
INFIELDERS (5): Garrett Atkins, Jamey Carroll, Todd Helton, Kazuo Matsui, Troy Tulowitzki.
OUTFIELDERS (7): Jeff Baker, Brad Hawpe, Matt Holliday, Seth Smith, Ryan Spilborghs, Cory Sullivan, Willy Taveras.
I agree, that commercial annoys. The season is this long cause of the 2-round playoffs.
now, thats more like it.
DiceK is getting his pitch count driven up.
Sweeps are an anti-climax. When the Tigers hammered the Padres in '84, it wasn't nearly as much fun as a 7 game Series.
Lowell Spinner games are great for me. I’m live only 15 minutes away from the ballpark. I have been to Pawtucket a few times and have seen minor league games in Iowa, New York and other places. Reminds me of the way major league baseball used to be 30 years ago.
Killer AB by Helton. He’s going to gas Dice-K.
On the contrary, Dice-K just gassed Helton.
DiceK can go 120 pitches.
Damn it! Fogg got the corner plus the whole night.
BS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I kind of enjoy that mindless Risk character wreaking havoc. Anything for the “Rules to live by, little bro.”
one of the best ads I have seen in some time.
You notice that too...ump squeezing the plate on Dice.
Are you kidding me? He craps out after 85-90 nowadays. He was great against Cleveland for 3 innings then ran out of gas. His last two innings have seen him throw 44 pitches, 12 to Helton alone.
I think the Sox hitters need to be prepared to take a few pitches to give him a blow.
um....
Are they going to beat this Sergeant Major Varitek nonsense into the ground?!
YES.. They are! My son is monitoring this thread, he tells me that I am A SPED. That’s okay with me.
I am so jazzed about Dice K’ s pitching
By God, I think he’s GOT IT !
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