"I can't talk about this right now, it's too exciting,
I'm afraid I'll wet my pants."
Thanks for the post. Living here in SoFlo I will most certainly be watching this. We have preset planned schedules on when we pick up last minute "survival" stores such as gas (which we don't keep over 3 months.) We'll do gradual fills of our stores over the next week if this continues to develop.
Yep, this is about the time the real fun gets started, let's pray we're all wasting our time! ; )
Ping and good morning to our SoFlo pals...
Watching a Couple of Tropical WavesBy Accuweather.com Meteorologists Alex Sosnowski, Bob Smerbeck and Matt Keefe
At this time, there are no organized features in the Atlantic basin. However, we are watching a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic near the Cape Verde Islands and a couple of tropical waves over the western Caribbean.
Over the course of the next several days, atmospheric conditions should allow the wave in the eastern Atlantic, located roughly along 20 west and south of 20 north and moving to the west at 10-15 knots, to become better organized. This feature could even strengthen into a named storm in a couple of days or so. Most global models have been showing this wave to become a well organized tropical cyclone over the past several days. A ridge of high pressure aloft to the north of this feature should put it on a westerly track, perhaps reaching the Lesser Antilles next Thursday or Friday.
The tropical waves in the western Caribbean are located roughly along 87 west and 79 west and are tracking west at 10-15 knots. They are interacting with an upper-level trough of low pressure between Florida and the Bahamas, and the result is widespread convection from Central America northeast across the western Caribbean into Cuba. The upper trough of low pressure will track westward across the Gulf Sunday and Monday and could move across southern Texas or northeastern Mexico during the day Tuesday. The tropical wave will be trailing behind the upper trough, and it will continue to be ventilated by the upper trough, so numerous showers and thunderstorms should continue. There is some chance of a developing tropical cyclone in the southwest Gulf of Mexico by midweek. There could at least be an increased chance of rain over the lower Rio Grande Valley.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, a tropical wave is found near 32 west and south of 16 north. This wave is moving to the west at 10-15 knots and is causing little in the way of showers and thunderstorms. Another tropical wave can be found near 48 west and south of 15 north. This wave is moving westward at 10-15 knots. This wave is causing showers and thunderstorms along the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Farther west, a tropical wave is found near 71 west and south of 22 north. This wave is moving westward at about 15 knots and is currently producing thunderstorms across the southern Bahamas and northern Columbia.
I live on the East central coast of Florida.
I saw one hurricane model this morning that has this turning into Hurricane dean and following the path of 1998’s Hurricane Georges. Across the north coast of Puerto Rico and Cuba and then across the Florida Keys and on up to Mobile, Alabama.
I live in the Lower Florida Keys, right where Georges stalled offshore in 1998 and pounded us for 18 hours. Don’t wish to see a repeat of that.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 22W S OF 19N. A 1006 MB LOW PRES IS NEAR 12N22W OR ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60NM OF 12N24W.
And so begins the “Real” Hurricane Season.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC ...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1008 MB LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE...IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 150 NM SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 12.5N25W. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE E OF A CONVECTIVE MASS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 25W-30W. OVERALL...THIS SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT 15-20 KT.
Trouble Brewing in the Eastern Atlantic
By Accuweather.com Meteorologist Josh Nagelberg
A tropical wave, which emerged from the African Coast on Friday, is showing signs of life with a weak circulation center forming during the day Sunday. The low pressure center is located about 150 miles south of the southern Cape Verde Islands, near 12 north and 25 west, and is moving to the west at about 15 knots. Atmospheric conditions are favorable for this system to develop further, and it may become the first Cape Verde storm of the 2007 Atlantic season over the next few days. Several global models have been showing this wave to become a well-organized tropical cyclone, perhaps even a hurricane, over the coming week. A large region of high pressure aloft to its north put it on a westerly track, perhaps reaching the Lesser Antilles Thursday or Friday. After that, there is some uncertainty as to where the system, if it develops, may end up, but if you're in the Caribbean, on the Gulf Coast, or even on the Southeast Coast, you should pay attention to this system.
Much of the western Caribbean Sea is unsettled at this time. A tropical wave is found near 87 west, as well as another wave around 77 west. These two waves are interacting with an upper-level trough of low pressure located over the far southeastern Gulf, just west of the Florida Keys. The result of these features are scattered thunderstorms from South Florida, the Bahamas, and western Cuba into Central America. The upper trough of low pressure will track westward into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Monday and will move into northern Mexico by Tuesday night or Wednesday. The tropical wave will be trailing behind the upper trough, and it will continue to be ventilated by the upper trough, so numerous showers and thunderstorms should continue. There is a small chance of a developing tropical cyclone in the southwest Gulf of Mexico by midweek. There could at least be an increased chance of rain over deep South Texas by then.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, a tropical wave is found near 36 west and south of 14 north. This wave is moving to the west at 10-15 knots and is causing little in the way of showers and thunderstorms. Another tropical wave can be found near 43 west and south of 14 north. This wave is moving westward at 10-15 knots. This wave is causing showers and thunderstorms along the Intertropical Convergence Zone.
ping to check back later and see how accurate NOAA isn’t on their prediction.
I have asked the moderator to change the title of the thread accordingly.
000
WTNT34 KNHC 131454
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 13 2007
...FOURTH DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.6 WEST OR ABOUT 520 MILES...840 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND ABOUT 2000 MILES...3220 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...12.0 N...31.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
TD4 is now TS Dean as of the 11 am advisory (Yeaaahhh!)
...DEAN INTENSIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.9 WEST OR ABOUT 910 MILES...1465 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR... AND A MOTION BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND DEAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...13.1 N...47.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
I hava asked the moderator to change the name of this thread accordingly.
