Hurricane Dean approaching the Lesser Antilles

NOAA ^ | 2007-08-12 | (mariner's 1-2-3 rule chart)

[Clive]

This chart will automatically update periodically.

[Ditter]

We live in Houston, no danger from the storm surge and I have no problem with staying here during a hurricane, even a direct hit on Galveston/Houston. It is the aftermath that I can’t stand, specifically the week or so without electricity and A/C. It has been over 20 years since that happened here and the heat and humidity almost killed me. We couldn’t even buy and ice cube. I am too old for that again, we’ll ride the storm out and take a trip to someplace with A/C. (I know I’m a weenie, you don’t need to remind me)

[PeteB570]

I’m in the Cape Fear region of the Carolinas. The big ones seem to smack us around mid-September.

I’ll test crank the 5kw generator, check over the emergency supplies and clean out the pine straw from the gutters next weekend.

That’s good for the long run. If one looks like it’s a couple of days out I’ll fill all the gas containers and top off the vehicles. I’m usually a good 24 hours ahead of the last minute store stampeders in getting my perishables

[Caipirabob]

Well here's to hoping that the big ones wither and move on out to sea before they hit...for all our sakes.

In 2003, 2004 and 2005 with Wilma, we experienced power outages from 4 days, to 9 days to 11 days with Wilma, the last big one to hit us. We had been blessed to be able to prepare so well, most everyone in the neighborhood had generators and portable A/C units. We spent the week repairing our neighbor's roofs and clearing trees from yards.

Sure don't feel the need to repeat any of that, but we should be more ready than ever if another one hits. Can't blame you for a second, either! Sign me up for the "weenie" club, I can be the "moral officer" like after Wilma, where we passed out all of our cold beer so we could make room for important food in the working fridge...lol!

[Ditter]

We live in a heavily wooded area (lots of trees down in any kind of storm) in the center of Houston and our power loop is small, so we are always last to have our power restored. The power company told me they take care of the most first and the least last. That’s us, the least. ~sigh~

[LadyPilgrim]

Afternoon...on this wonderful Lord’s Day! ;-)

We’re south of Bham and would appreciate some of that wet stuff coming our way also.
I pray for no wind.....but the rain we need desperately!

[eastforker]

We were without power for a day last week when one of the power lines fried in two pieces. Got the generator out and fired her up to power a window unit and the fridge. Probably need to stock up on about 50 gallons of gas just in case.

[PeteB570]

And if the generator isn’t needed you and put some oil in the gas, put the mixture in the boat and go out and catch some more fish.

Loved your home profile page pictures. So, are the big ones as good to eat as the little ones?

[eastforker]

So, are the big ones as good to eat as the little ones?...............They sure are, just ask some of the HAT chapter members that attended this springs annual Texas Cowboy memorial shoot.

[Clive]

Extract from NOAA Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC ...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1008 MB LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE...IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 150 NM SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 12.5N25W. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE E OF A CONVECTIVE MASS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 25W-30W. OVERALL...THIS SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT 15-20 KT.

[Recovering_Democrat]

Weather Underground Models for this system:

[Guenevere]

If this is a ping list, put me on!

[Clive]

Accuweather update 1945 EDT 2007-08-12:

Trouble Brewing in the Eastern Atlantic

By Accuweather.com Meteorologist Josh Nagelberg

A tropical wave, which emerged from the African Coast on Friday, is showing signs of life with a weak circulation center forming during the day Sunday. The low pressure center is located about 150 miles south of the southern Cape Verde Islands, near 12 north and 25 west, and is moving to the west at about 15 knots. Atmospheric conditions are favorable for this system to develop further, and it may become the first Cape Verde storm of the 2007 Atlantic season over the next few days. Several global models have been showing this wave to become a well-organized tropical cyclone, perhaps even a hurricane, over the coming week. A large region of high pressure aloft to its north put it on a westerly track, perhaps reaching the Lesser Antilles Thursday or Friday. After that, there is some uncertainty as to where the system, if it develops, may end up, but if you're in the Caribbean, on the Gulf Coast, or even on the Southeast Coast, you should pay attention to this system.

Much of the western Caribbean Sea is unsettled at this time. A tropical wave is found near 87 west, as well as another wave around 77 west. These two waves are interacting with an upper-level trough of low pressure located over the far southeastern Gulf, just west of the Florida Keys. The result of these features are scattered thunderstorms from South Florida, the Bahamas, and western Cuba into Central America. The upper trough of low pressure will track westward into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Monday and will move into northern Mexico by Tuesday night or Wednesday. The tropical wave will be trailing behind the upper trough, and it will continue to be ventilated by the upper trough, so numerous showers and thunderstorms should continue. There is a small chance of a developing tropical cyclone in the southwest Gulf of Mexico by midweek. There could at least be an increased chance of rain over deep South Texas by then.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, a tropical wave is found near 36 west and south of 14 north. This wave is moving to the west at 10-15 knots and is causing little in the way of showers and thunderstorms. Another tropical wave can be found near 43 west and south of 14 north. This wave is moving westward at 10-15 knots. This wave is causing showers and thunderstorms along the Intertropical Convergence Zone.

[Caipirabob]

Wow, then prudence dictates we at least start on some of the perishables tomorrow. I'll probably start by filling up some of the spare gas cans. Don't want to get caught in the huge lines that build up a day or so out now.

Thanks, I'll be posting the plot at work for the guys to see. Usually the first one of us to hear a hint of this will do that. We also need to prep our HA systems for transfer. Going to be a fun week!

[SilvieWaldorfMD]

Thanks for the info and the ping, Clive... I’ll see if I can send more info when I’m in Puerto Rico, starting tomorrow through Friday.

[SilvieWaldorfMD]

Thanks for the WU model.

On what day do you see this thing hovering over or around Puerto Rico?

[spotbust1]

ping to check back later and see how accurate NOAA isn’t on their prediction.

[Guenevere]

Thanks

[Clive]

See my the Accuweather summary in my Reply 32 which forecasts it to cross the Lesser Antilles on or about Friday.

[SilvieWaldorfMD]

There’s going to be a mad rush of passengers leaving the smaller Lesser Antilles (Barbados, St. Lucia, etc.) into San Juan (the American Airlines Caribbean hub) in order to return to the mainland U.S. on Friday if or when it develops into a TS... UGH!... it’s going to be worse than rounding cattle at the SJ airport...

[Clive]

This potential tropical cyclone has now become Tropical Depression Four.

I have asked the moderator to change the title of the thread accordingly.