Hurricane Dean approaching the Lesser Antilles

NOAA ^ | 2007-08-12 | (mariner's 1-2-3 rule chart)

[Clive]

This chart will automatically update periodically.

[NautiNurse]

I just noticed this special statement for Corpus Christi

Statement as of 4:41 AM CDT on August 14, 2007

... Heat indices between 105 and 109 degrees are expected today...
... Potential tropical system to affect south Texas Wednesday through Friday...

[varina davis]

Dean is up to 2.5/2.5 now on the Dvorak Scale. Invest 91L in the GOM is 1/0/1.0.

[Chanticleer]

We're in a no-evac zone, so I guess we're staying no matter what.

I think we'll need a canoe.

[TypeZoNegative]

[Guenevere]

Not sure what a no-evac zone is.

Usually the beachside folk have to evacuate...

..but the mainliners don't, or it's optional.

We're mainliners.

But if it's a direct hit at a Cat.4, we would leave.

[sweet_diane]

Just holding my place should I have to return to this thread...which I hope I don’t. Not that ya’ll aren’t cool and I don’t like hangin’ with ya... :)

[CindyDawg]

Looks like just a rain maker but we need to keep an eye out. It’s moving fast but could get to tropical storm status. I don’t know about yall but we have had about all the water we can handle.

[trillabodilla]

Thanks for the ping, NN.

Now to the store for pop tarts, tuna fish and bottled water.

[NautiNurse]

Now to the store for pop tarts, tuna fish and bottled water.

Hmmmm, no chocolate?

[trillabodilla]

Well, I love chocolate and all, but it’s not very good hurricane food. With the electricity out for days in the 95 degree heat, it tends to melt. [although I do like it better melted :-)]

[twin2]

Thanks for the ping. We’re off to Europe Thursday and I’m not sure if it’s good or bad. I always feel I need to stay to protect the house. Actually I am more worried about the dogs, and I still have roof problems from Wilma.

[NautiNurse]

Easy fix—consume all chocolate supplies in the hours between final storm prep and end of storm.

[SouthTexas]

Wasn’t too hot out there, rain kept us cool. :)

[SouthTexas]

We don’t need anymore either and we got some today.

[abb]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200704.public.html

Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on August 14, 2007

...Dean moving westward across the central tropical Atlantic...
Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of
Dean.
At 500 PM AST...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Dean was
located near latitude 11.6 north...longitude 41.0 west or about 1140
miles...1830 km...west of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands and
about 1390 miles...2235 km...east of the Lesser Antilles.

Dean is moving quickly toward the west near 21 mph...33 km/hr...and
this general motion is expected to continue during the next 24
hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...65 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles...55 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb...29.65 inches.

Repeating the 500 PM AST position...11.6 N...41.0 W. Movement
toward...west near 21 mph. Maximum sustained winds...40 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1004 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Landsea/Knabb

[CindyDawg]

This morning we had some wicked looking weather. The clouds were kind of a darkish green and looked very low and were stacked like pancakes. Thunder and lightning. It went right around us though. Kindy of spooky. I had not seen clouds like that before.

[abb]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200704.disc.html#a_topad

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 14, 2007

Dean’s structure has not improved during the afternoon. Convection
has waned and remains especially limited in the northeastern
semicircle...though this may be a diurnal fluctuation. Both TAFB
and SAB gave Dvorak estimates of t2.5 or 35 kt...while an AMSU pass
at 1623 UTC suggested a substantially stronger intensity. Given the
lack of convective vigor...the intensity of Dean is kept at 35 kt.
Initial motion of Dean is 265 degrees at 18 kt...a bit slower than
the last advisory. Dean is south of a deep-layered ridge which
should steer the cyclone toward the west or west-northwest for the
next few days. The model guidance shifted somewhat to the west and
faster compared to the 06 UTC runs...perhaps due to a weaker and
less digging trough off of the U.S. East Coast by day 5. The
official track forecast is to the left of and faster than the
previous advisory...but remains to the right of the consensus of
the GFS...GFDL...and hwrf. Compared to the other models...track
solutions for the NOGAPS and ECMWF are slower because they do not
appear to have a good handle on Dean’s fast initial forward speed.
Dean is currently experiencing moderate northeasterly shear...is
over 27.5c SSTs...and is within a moist environment. The shear
should drop while the SSTs warm over the next few days...so the
environment appears to be conducive for gradual intensification.
The intensity forecast is close a consensus of the hwrf...
GFDL...SHIPS...and lgem through 72 hr. Thereafter...the intensity
forecast relies primarily upon the GFDL and lgem models. By day
5...Dean is forecast to be a strengthening hurricane and could
reach major hurricane status by then.

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 14/2100z 11.6n 41.0w 35 kt
12hr VT 15/0600z 11.7n 43.6w 40 kt
24hr VT 15/1800z 12.0n 46.9w 45 kt
36hr VT 16/0600z 12.3n 50.2w 50 kt
48hr VT 16/1800z 12.6n 53.5w 60 kt
72hr VT 17/1800z 14.0n 59.5w 70 kt
96hr VT 18/1800z 15.5n 64.5w 85 kt
120hr VT 19/1800z 17.5n 69.5w 95 kt

$$
forecaster Landsea/Knabb

[abb]

[abb]

[Clive]

Accuweather summary as of 1645 EDT 2007-08014:

Tropical Storm Dean Looking to Strengthen

By AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Ken Reeves

Tropical Storm Dean continues to track westward through the central Atlantic. As of 5 p.m. EDT Tuesday, Tropical Storm Dean is positioned at 11.6 north and 41.0 west, or about 1,390 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Maximum sustained winds of Dean are 40 mph with higher gusts. Dean is moving toward the west at 21 mph and will continue on this general track during the next 48 hours. Afterwards, Dean is forecast to move more toward the west-northwest taking it into eastern Caribbean Sea later Friday or Friday night.

Some wind shear in the vicinity of Dean will continue to weaken during the next day or two, allowing for Dean to strengthen a little more quickly looking ahead toward the weekend. Dean will also move into slightly warmer waters as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. This will add to the strengthening effect of Dean. With the storm as far south as it is, the opportunity for a strike on the East Coast of the United States will diminish noticeably by the weekend. Presently, a track through the northern Caribbean seems most likely reaching Category 2 or perhaps 3 before interacting with the disrupting higher elevations of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Those in the eastern and northern Caribbean should pay especially close attention to the progress of this storm.

Another area of tropical concern exists over the southern Gulf of Mexico, where a tropical wave continues to produce widespread shower and thunderstorm activity from the eastern Yucatan Peninsula through western Cuba. An upper-level low pressure system west of the tropical wave has created some wind shear, preventing it from gaining much tropical organization. However, the upper low will be moving across Texas and Mexico over the next 24 hours, leaving more favorable conditions for development across the western Gulf. Waters in the western Gulf are charged with water temperatures approaching 90 degrees, so if the broad low-level circulation associated with this wave is able to become more compact, it could quickly strengthen into a tropical storm before moving onshore either in northern Mexico or South Texas by late Wednesday or Wednesday night. At the very least, the system will bring rain and thunderstorms from northeastern Mexico up the Texas coast, with localized flooding becoming possible. It will also bring higher waves along the coast, and if it can strengthen into a tropical storm.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, there are a couple of weak waves embedded within the Intertropical Convergence Zone, but nothing of significant concern. A new tropical wave has a weak circulation near 16 north and 22 west, moving to the west at 10-15 mph. No immediate development is expected from the wave.