Big new asteroid has slim chance of hitting Earth

New Scientist ^ | 2 May 2006 | David Chandler

[SunkenCiv]

A newly discovered asteroid is now the biggest thing known with a possibility of hitting the Earth in this century – and it is also the one that could hit the soonest.

But the odds of impact currently stand at just one in six million, reducing the fear factor somewhat, and these odds should further diminish with additional observations. This latest addition to NASA-JPL's list of potentially hazardous asteroids was discovered on 27 April 2006.

The asteroid, called 2006 HZ51, has an estimated diameter of about 800 metres and is the one of the largest objects ever to make the list. An object of that size would cause widespread devastation if it did strike the Earth.

HZ51 also has one of the shortest lead-times to a potential impact of any such object yet found, and the shortest of any potential Earth-impactor currently on the list. The earliest of its 165 possible impact dates is just over two years away, on 21 June 2008.

[SunkenCiv]

There's some kind of asteroid manufacturing facility, the aliens run it. ;')

[SunkenCiv]

Seems like Mecca would be a great place for an asteroid impact... particularly during the Hajj.

[SlowBoat407]

Why don't you guys fix your little problem. We've got a hole to drill!

[Eaker]

Please put me on this ping list.

Thanks,
Eaker

[sully777]

Seems like Mecca would be a great place for an asteroid impact... particularly during the Hajj.

They already worship a meteorite they enshrined as the Ka'ba (alternatively called Kaaba) in Mecca. From what I've read, it is a metallic meteor that broke into three pieces. The locals set up and worshipped the meteor in Mecca long before Mohommed was a twinkle in his great great great great grandfather's eye. There was big money made in the pilgrimage/idol business that went hand in hand with the caravan trades (no oil revenue back then)

---

[SunkenCiv]

I love those annual stories out of the Middle East about hundreds who die during a stampede during some ridiculous compulsion to repeat. Most recently, a bunch of dolts throwing stones at a dead goat or something (represents Satan) got scared, turned to run, and tripped over their own luggage, then were trampled by the other dolts who saw the first group run and also got scared. Maybe American Tourister should be fighting the WOT...

[Steve Van Doorn]

According to the simulator June 21 2008 doesn’t even come close to a hit.

But May 18 2019 has very good chance.

For the fun of it I am going to let that simulator run a while see if it hits.

If that simulator is correct one day HZ51 will one day hit Mars or earth.

[Steve Van Doorn]

May 18 2019 has the best chance in 200 years of hitting anything.

[Victoria Delsoul]

The headline almost sounds disappointing...almost... ; )

Well, maybe they'll get lucky next time. :-)

[blam]

Slim? Hmmmm

[SunkenCiv]

You like the second one better? That was the second try. The first one seemed a little too large and a little too flamboyant, but it has grown on me. :') TigerLikesRooster also prefers the first one.

[Lonesome in Massachussets]

The object that caused Meteor Crater in Arizona was the size of a VW Bug. This bad boy is millions of times the size of a Nimitz Class. Not good.

[RightWhale]

This one is about half the diameter of an asteroid that would be worth mining.

[blam]

"They already worship a meteorite they enshrined as the Ka'ba (alternatively called Kaaba) in Mecca. From what I've read, it is a metallic meteor that broke into three pieces. The locals set up and worshipped the meteor in Mecca long before Mohommed was a twinkle in his great great great great grandfather's eye. There was big money made in the pilgrimage/idol business that went hand in hand with the caravan trades (no oil revenue back then) "

I've often wondered if this is the impact swarm (linked below) that produced the meteorite that the crazies worship. I suspect that the asteroid is the 'angel Gabriel.' Also, I believe Abraham had his hands on the Kaaba.

Disaster That Struck The Ancients

This impact site was discovered in the swamps of the Marsh Arabs after Saddam drained them.

[sully777]

Thanks. It is truly fascinating seeing the correlation between catastrophic events and the sudden rise of religious fervor. Also interesting seeing the events shape human history.

[SunkenCiv]

http://newton.dm.unipi.it/cgi-bin/neodys/neoibo?objects:2006HZ51;main

the following link has vanished:

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2006hz51.html

[SunkenCiv]

Aha...

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/db?name=2006+HZ51

It has been removed from the risk table, as impact has been ruled out.