Posted on 01/01/2025 6:44:53 AM PST by Godzilla
Welcome to Threat Matrix 2025
For historical reference TM2024 link is
https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4207046/posts?q=1&;page=1#1
Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 24th year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.
2024 has been “historic”: - The landslide election of Trump back into the Whitehouse, and the collapse of the massive lawfare effort against him. - Assassination attempts on Trump - Stunning defeat of Hamas and Hezbollah by Israel - Israel directly hits Iran after Iranian missile strikes, eliminating Iranian missile production capabilities for several years as well as destroying most of its air defense assets. - The almost overnight overthrow of Syria’s Assad and the associated serious losses to Russia and Iran/Hezbollah
I expect 2025 to be even worse as we are facing: - Massive political infighting as the Swamp tries to thwart the Trump agenda - Potential for civil unrest and violence driven by the communist left and Antifa affiliated elements. - Potential violence as Trump implements is deportation plan for millions of illegals. - The potential for a serious and deep recession - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - Combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Russian nuclear threats - China making a move on Taiwan - Israel and Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems.
It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.
For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.
How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.
Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.
My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose – even more so following 2022.
So buckle up for the ride. This is an open thread that I want to continue as a clearing house of tidbits of intelligence contributed by the FR community so that we are all aware of what’s happening and what the impacts of those events will be. Knowledge is power
I see they’re getting ready for the next control the world pandemic.
Democrats know how to trigger their crazies... mix that with AI 'insights' into how to manipulate humans and we could have a mess. A psychopath is a person missing the pain that goes with a conscience. AI is NOT capable of 'feeling pain'. It's a recipe for creating a psychopath to end all psychopaths...
CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025
Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
CRITICAL DATE - Nov 1, 2025, EBT and SNAP benefits are gone due to govt shutdown.
Authorities nabbed an armed illegal immigrant after he allegedly placed a $10,000 bounty calling for the deaths of federal immigration agents in Dallas, Texas. Agents continue to face mounting threats all across the nation.
Mexican illegal immigrant Eduardo Aguilar called for “10 dudes in Dallas with determination who aren’t afraid to [two skull emojis],” and offered “10K for each ICE agent” in an Oct. 9 TikTok post, according to the Department of Homeland Security. The latest threat comes just weeks after a sniper opened fire on an ICE facility in Dallas, killing two detainees despite intending to target federal agents.
***
9th circuit court rules trump can deploy NG to Portland.
A U.S. appeals court has ruled that the U.S. government can deploy National Guard troops for federalized service in Portland. A judge had previously sided with Oregon Democrats, believing the argument that it was not needed.
OBSERVATION - Follows same transjectory as the LA decision. Expect a similar decision in the Chicago appeal. Title 10 is pretty straight forward and NG deployments fit like a hand in glove to those requirements.
OVERALL OBSERVATIONS - NK 2.0 is drifting away into he past, a big geriatric nothing burger.
Freeing up NG for Portland may likely cause violence to flair up for a short period as Antifa tests the mettle of these forces. City leadership will likely squeal and push an appeal to the full 9th circuit, but that would be a waste of taxpayer money, thought that hasn’t stopped them before.
The lack luster NK 2.0 may cause a slow down in Antifa attacks on facilities, but may result in targeted attacks /assassination attempts on officers and families. Big hit money is floating around out there (see above) providing an incentive as well.
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
GasBuddy reports that the U.S. national average price of gasoline has dropped under $3 per gallon for the first time since 2020.
OBSERVATION - Good and bad news. Cheaper prices is wonderful, however drops like this can also be a harbinger of worsening economic conditions that could reflect a recession.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Democrats continue to refuse to cross the isle and support the clean CR. Now the republicans are putting forth separate funding bills for essential govt workers. Democrats have already rejected an earlier bill to fund the military, and will likely reject this bill as well. They will reject any CR that doesn’t contain their expensive political add ons - to include funding health care for illegals.
Things are pretty flat on the political commentary side over NK 2.0. There have been some rumblings that the actual turnout may have been in the 3 million range, but that hasn’t been confirmed. I don’t believe it was near the 7 million mark, which is likely overstated, but 3 million seems kinda low too.
TRUMP Watch –
Leftists have their underwear in a knot over renovations being done at the WH saying it is unprecedented. Sorry, FDR made substantial renovations and Truman redid the whole building for example.
Illegal Immigration –
DHS announces the start of “Operation River Wall” to secure the Rio Grande against “illegal immigration, narco-terrorists, and other criminal activity at our Southern Border. The Coast Guard will surge response boats, shallow watercraft, command and control assets, and tactical teams; beginning with more than 100 boats and hundreds of personnel.
OBSERVATION - The Rio Grande region has historically been the major smuggling axis from Mexico into the US. I’m not sure of the status of the wall in this sector, so it may still be under construction, still allowing illegal traffic.
China -
FOLLOW UP - On October 17, China’s Ministry of National Defense announced that the Communist Party’s Central Committee and Central Military Commission had, after investigations, removed nine senior officers from their posts in the People’s Liberation Army.
The stunning announcement occurred on the eve of the long-delayed Fourth Plenum of the Party’s 20th Central Committee, scheduled to start tomorrow, October 20, and continue for four days. On the agenda are crucial economic matters, including the country’s 15th Five-Year Plan, which covers the rest of the decade, 2026-2030.
OBSERVATION - Some analysts are theorizing that the removals were not directed by Xi, but by his political enemies. They point to the removal of the most senior of the nine officers axed on the 17th was General He Weidong, the second-ranked vice chairman of the Commission and Xi Jinping’s No. 1 loyalist in the PLA. The general had gained prominence as Xi’s top enforcer in the military.
Bottom line - intrigue and a very slim chance Xi will be removed. Xi has been getting increased pressure from economic failures of the past 4 years but I’m not convinced that a soft coup is going to happen.
Japan –
Its official. Japanese parliament has elected Sanae Takaichi as the first female Prime Minister of Japan.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
A planned meeting between advisors to Presidents Trump and Putin has been postponed. The delay follows a lack of progress in talks between Marco Rubio and Sergey Lavrov, who had differing expectations regarding ending the war - CNN
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 40-50 degree range with rain and rain showers
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine is ready to stop hostilities along the current front line. The current line of contact should become the starting point for negotiations, – joint statement by Zelenskyy and other European leaders
Overnight Russia launched 2 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles, 4 3-300 missiles and 98 strike drones of different types, - Ukrainian air forces
Russian losses per 21/10/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff.
+1130 men
+8 tanks
+37 AFVs
+23 artillery
Russian assault crushed near Mala Tokmachka on the Orikhiv front. Around 2 companies from the 71st Motor Rifle Regiment advanced with 26 vehicles, including tanks, BMPs, BTRs, and “Tigrs.” By 20:00, Ukrainian forces had destroyed 2 tanks, 12 BMPs, 6 BTRs, and 2 Tigrs. The rest were either wiped out or fleeing.
Analysis and Future Operations —
Low drone/missile activity, though I find it interesting of the minor change in tactics, including missiles to low numbers of drones. In the past , drone counts were much higher before substantial numbers of missiles were added to the mix.
Growing evidence that Russian attempts to force breakthroughs is failing as up to battalion sized units are being thrown against Ukraine defenses only to be soundly defeated. Not sure if the daily count of Russian losses includes the assault near Mala Tokmachka, but this is one of the highest counts of tank and APV losses I’ve seen in quite a while. This is along the southern part of the front along a road that leads eventually to Zaporizhzhia. Months ago there were rumors of a planned Russian attack in this sector. Whether or not this is part of that is uncertain at this time. If it is, then such an offensive is off to a pretty bad foot.
Russian has continued to receive heavy losses in the Pokrovsk sector, north of the fortress town. The breakthrough there earlier this summer has been decimated and only a few pockets of isolated Russian forces reportedly remain. Until now, this was the main area Russia had thrown what little tanks and armor it had available to bring relief to the isolated forces.
On a strategic level, more talk and that’s all about a ceasefire and peace settlement. Its not going to get anywhere in the near term, only when Russia feels a greater economic pinch from Ukraine petroleum strikes and stricter economic sanction will the needle start to move.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Ceasefire still continues to hold but barely.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
VP Vance in Israel on ceasefire talks and inspections
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Hamas ceasefire violations continue:
Earlier today (Monday), the IDF identified several terrorists who crossed the yellow line and approached IDF troops operating in the Shejaiya area, posing an immediate threat to them. They were taken out.
Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz instructed the IDF to send a clear message to Hamas leaders in Gaza through the American supervision mechanism:
- Every Hamas terrorist found beyond the yellow line in the territory controlled by Israel must evacuate immediately. Hamas leaders will bear responsibility for any incident.
- Anyone who remains in the area will be targeted without any further warning, in order to allow IDF forces to operate freely and immediately against any threat.
***
Following the return of the body of Tal Haimi, the bodies of 15 more deceased hostages are still in the Gaza Strip.
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
Palestinian outlets report Israeli operations tonight across nearly 20 towns and villages around Nablus
OBSERVATION - Hamas and other radical jihadists have been attempting to gain a foothold in Judea and Samaria for years now. They have been hampered in the past by the PA who views them as a threat to their rule.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
The Qatar’s Emir sharply criticized Israel and accused it of violating the ceasefire in Gaza, without mentioning the terrorist organization and the serious incident in Rafah where 2 IDF soldiers were killed
OBSERVATION - No mention of the violation and attack by Hamas causing it. Qatar again showing that they are not the honest broker to be involved in this ceasefire.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Hamas continues to walk a thin line with Israel ready to pulverize remaining areas of Gaza should a serious breach of the agreement occur again.
Nearly half of the remains of Israeli hostages have been returned. However, they do not hold the leverage that the living hostages had, but Hamas is attempting to milk as much anti-Israeli sentiment out of them as possible.
Near term, I expect Hamas to continue to probe Israel positions. The ultimate goal would be to be able to snatch some soldiers for more hostage conditions to resume. They ‘ve done similar in the past. I don’t think Hamas has enough reorganized force to go toe to toe with the IDF at this stage and will need a longer period to reconstitute its forces. In doing so, they could potentially see the wrath of Israel, with Trump’s full support, fall on them again. Trump does a lot of warning which Hamas may see as weakness, but they had better remember that same pattern of talk towards Iran just before the big bunker busters fell. That is a tool available for the US to use to directly punish Hamas. We are not going in on the ground to disarm them at this stage. However, the peace ‘partiners’ of Turkey, Egypt and Qatar are not really being forward about the effort to disarm either. Eventually, that will require a military solution as their pseudo diplomatic solution is failing.
Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025
Iran announced: The agreement with the IAEA is canceled
The Secretary of Iran’s National Security Council, Ali Larijani, announced today the cancellation of the agreement reached in Cairo last month, which was intended to allow a gradual return of supervision and inspections at nuclear sites in Iran.
OBSERVATION - That move is unlikely to cause the snapback measures to be removed, and likely will reinforce them instead.
Lebanon -
American Envoy to Lebanon and Syria, Tom Barrack:
“If Lebanon continues to hesitate on the disarmament of Hezbollah, Israel will act unilaterally.”
OBSERVATION - This has been the state of S Lebanon since the ceasefire. Israel has already continued to act unilaterally to strike Hezbollah targets. Not clear at this stage if IDF will advance northward again to clear out the region in detail or not. However, that is not off the table.
Colombia -
With the snap of a finger, Colombian President Gustavo Petro said they will need to “get rid of Trump” if the U.S. President doesn’t get rid of himself. In that snap, he made certain his words were not confused for some call for minor political action. Without directly saying the words, Petro insinuated that President Trump needs to be assassinated.
In a tense sit-down that left even the interviewer rattled, Petro declared his growing disdain for President Trump. Univision’s Daniel Coronell was at the presidential palace in Bogotá when Petro made the inflammatory remarks that are now sending shockwaves across borders. His intention was clear. The threat is real.
https://thelibertydaily.com/colombian-president-issues-not-so-veiled-threat-get/
OBSERVATION - Things have been collapsing since Trump was elected. Petro is a hard core leftist in the midst of a region that is shifting to the right.
***
Colombia has recalled its U.S. ambassador after a sharp diplomatic clash between Presidents Petro and Trump over American strikes on suspected drug boats in the Caribbean.
You can tell which governments are run by cartels by how they respond to President Trump.
Running late, post will come up after lunch today.
No post expected tomorrow - Thursday.
Most of today will be general summaries of the past couple days. I know I probably missed putting down some items but I didn’t want to ball things up that much.
CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025
Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
CRITICAL DATE - Nov 1, 2025, EBT and SNAP benefits are gone due to govt shutdown.
***
Weekend protest forecast.
With the NK 2.0 in the rear view mirror, this weekend appears to returning to a number of smaller protests covering a variety of topics across the nation. At this time, none appear to be posing a threat of violence, though conditions locally can change very rapidly.
Significant areas of violence continue to be the cities listed above as well as some in the Alameda area near the Coast Guard facility that was going to host govt agents set to take actions in San Fran.
***
SNAP -
There is a growing storm across sectors of social media of people threatening to loot and steal from stores should their SNAP benefits get cut next month. Included in this is a threat to steal from people taking their groceries to their vehicles. By far the most of these threats are coming from blacks, who historically have resorted to violence - see recent Floyd riots for example. The aggrieved left has been looking for a trigger event to up the violence, and this may be it.
STRONGLY recommend that one makes plans to enlarge their grocery purchases BEFORE Nov 1, especially in and around blue urban areas where historical rioting and looting have occurred. Do your best to avoid stores the first week of November. For you preppers out there, review your stocks for an early testing, fill in gaps in storage needs now.
It is absolutely critical that those that physically go to a grocery store, be prepared to protect themselves and their groceries on their way back to load said groceries into their vehicle.
RELATED - Kalifornia Gov Newscum has ordered the deployment of NG forces to ‘assist’ food banks in the central valley. The claim is that they will help with the logistics, but an unstated mission is facility protection from potential looting once SNAP and EBT funds are stopped next month.
***
Democrat Texas state Rep. Jolanda Jones has sparked outrage after threatening that Democrats will “wipe out” every Republican and, in a graphic metaphor, “slash” their political opponents’ throats.
Jones framed the violent rhetoric as part of a call for Democrats to fight harder for voters they are losing.
She made the remarks on CNN’s “Erin Burnett OutFront,” arguing Democrats must change tactics to regain support among black and low-income voters.
Jones said the party needs to “fight” in ways she characterized as tougher and less restrained.
“I’m from the hood, okay?!” she raged on CNN
.
https://slaynews.com/news/texas-democrat-threatens-wipe-out-republicans-slashing-throats-hood-okay/
OBSERVATION - More inflammatory rhetoric from leftists. She believes violence is the way to gain support from blacks and low income voters.
***
(FO) Rep. Robert Garcia (D-CA) said House Oversight Committee Democrats plan to host a “master ICE tracker” on the Oversight Committee website in the next few weeks. Garcia said the website will allow the public to report ICE movements and operations nationwide. Rep. Bryan Steil (R-WI) said the House Administration Committee will not allow Garcia to put the ICE tracker on any House website.
OBSERVATION - The left continues to threaten the lives of federal agents AND THEIR FAMILIES with this kind of doxxing effort.
***
Forward Observer reports what leadership of the “No Kings” is plotting next -
During an all-call yesterday, Indivisible, the country’s largest protest organizer and the main organizer behind the burgeoning Color Revolution movement discussed the following:
One organizer said the next goal is “to build a culture of defiance… [W]e basically need to make resistance cool so that people, one, want to join our movement and, two, people get socialized to these new and different tactics to fight authoritarianism.”
She added: “I do have to be real with you that this type of work is new in our toolbox and the American public needs to learn all of these new tactics and we’re going to need to be able to leverage these types of tactics at scale, en masse, if we are going to free America from rising fascism.”
In an interview, Indivisible co-executive director Ezra Levin said, “There will be more No Kings protests,” adding that boycotts will be part of the escalation. “I think we got to go into boycotts and I don’t think there’s anything more American than boycotts… Boycotts are the way that we exercise our power in between these margins. I think it’s a major tool at our disposal.”
FO ANALYSIS - Indicates that these elements are trying to shift from the Protest phase to the Resistance phase.
“direct action, on the other hand, is an attempt to directly intervene or interfere against those people or their policies. These pressure campaigns can be economic in nature (in the case of strikes and boycotts), social in the case of civil disobedience, or political in the case of mass political defiance, such as deliberately breaking relatively minor laws resulting in mass arrests, which get publicized in the media as a fascist dictatorship attacking peaceful protestors.
MORE OBSERVATIONS - They, as well as I, project these ‘direct action’ events to increase in number and intensity as the midterms approach. As noted, a key element is trying to get a key triggering event to build upon for additional support.
At this point, just what do they want to boycott? They’ve made many calls in the past, but they’ve never gained much traction. The Tesla action backfired on them ,so just who will receive their wrath this time ?
***
The Trump administration was deploying more than 100 federal agents near San Francisco, CA. However, after speaking to the mayor of SF, Trump stood down saying he’s going to let the mayor continue to deal with the crime, and the feds will monitor for now.
***
Illinois Federal District Judge Jeffrey Cummings ruled that ICE agents could face contempt of court or criminal charges for violating a Biden-era consent decree on immigration enforcement. The judge extended the consent decree, which blocks warrantless immigration arrests in Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, Missouri, Kentucky and Kansas, until February 2026.
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
The Energy Department announced Tuesday that it plans to buy oil for delivery in December and January, using a portion of the $171 million from President Donald Trump’s signature tax and spending law allotted for crude purchases.
“While this process won’t be complete overnight, these actions are an important step in strengthening our energy security and reversing the costly and irresponsible energy policies of the last administration,” Energy Secretary Chris Wright said in a statement.
West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, is down about 30% since its peak in mid-January. It traded at about $58 a barrel on Tuesday, near the lowest since 2021.
That makes it an ideal time to refill the reserve, which at 408 million bbls is only about 60% full. But the Energy Department only has $171 million to buy crude — or enough for roughly 3 million bbls, based on today’s price.
OBSERVATION - NOTE, it will take year and billions of dollars to replace the oil biden syphoned off to bolster the democrats during there last midterm elections. We are at about 394 million barrels-about 55% of capacity
Initially, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright estimated it would take $20 billion and years to accomplish Trump’s goal of refilling the reserve to its maximum capacity.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The United States reportedly carried out its eighth strike against an alleged drug-smuggling vessel Tuesday night, this time off the Pacific coast of South America.
At least two aboard the vessel were killed in the attack — the first outside the
Caribbean, where the previous seven strikes occurred since Sept. 2 — sources told CBS News.
POLITICAL FRONT –
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries just vowed to investigate the people who made private donations to President Trump’s White House ballroom project.
Jeffries said, without evidence, that the donors were probably using the donations to curry favor with the Trump administration.
“And all of this is going to have to be investigated. It will. All of this will have to be uncovered. It will. And these people are going to be held accountable, no matter how long it takes,” Jeffries continued. “And that’s a warning to all of these people participating in this scheming to manipulate taxpayer dollars and, of course, to destroy the people’s house. The White House belongs to the American people. It doesn’t belong to Donald Trump.”
OBSERVATION - Jeffries’ threat has been out there for a few days now, but it reveals the revenge mentality of the left. Should they some how regain power, the attacks on US citizens for legal actions will make Stalin’s purges pale in comparison. James (Golem) Carvel said something like he wants to see Trump supporters, arrested, put into orange jump suit and publicly marched to detention camps. We’ve already seen a sampling of this under biden and the plandemic. What they want to do for revenge will be orders of magnitude bigger.
***
Senate Democrats rejected legislation on Thursday afternoon that would have ensured U.S. service members and some federal workers do not miss a paycheck during the government shutdown.
Senators voted 54 to 45 largely along party lines to advance the bill sponsored by Republican Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson, falling short of the Senate’s 60-vote threshold. Just three Democrats — Sens. John Fetterman of Pennsylvania and Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff of Georgia — crossed party lines to back the legislation.
Johnson’s Shutdown Fairness Act would have paid military personnel and federal workers reporting to work during the shutdown, including Transportation Security Administration (TSA) agents, air traffic controllers and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers.
All federal employees are poised to miss a paycheck on Friday due to the continued funding lapse.
China -
The Chinese Communist Party formally agreed to the latest round of purges which included the former head of the Southern Theater Command, heads of the Eastern Theater Command and People’s Armed Police, and political commissars at the heads of the armed forces branches.
OBSERVATION - First, looks like Xi is riding this one out and second, the impact to Taiwan invasion planning may have taken a hit as some of these heads commander forces opposite the island and would have been involved in any invasion.
North/South Korea –
North Korea test-fired two hypersonic missiles on Wednesday, prompting protests from U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, which described the tests as unlawful and destabilizing.
State media Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on Thursday reported North Korea’s Missile Administration launched two hypersonic missiles from Ryokpho District, Pyongyang Municipality, toward the northeast. The projectiles reportedly hit the target point on the tableland of Kwesang Peak in Orang County, North Hamgyong Province.
OBSERVATION - The test comes only days prior to next week’s annual summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Forum in South Korea, which is set to be attended by a number of world leaders including U.S. President Donald J. Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
putin’s pulling the US’ chain in full effect the past few days.
- Initial discussions of Trump authorizing Tomahawks to Ukraine
- putin all forward for a meeting with Trump in Hungary
- Trump pulls back on Tomahawks thinking negotiations are working
- putin launches big strike on Ukraine
- Hungary talks cancelled.
Only this time, Trump has taken the biggest sanctions measures to date, nailing Rosneft and Lukoil. War damage from Ukraine drone strikes has significantly damaged the Russia industry, US pushing India from Russia oil and now a much more significant sanction that will definitely impact China.
Now putin’s PR is that Russia is a victim of American aggression
Economic Impact –
The U.S. Treasury has imposed new sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, citing Moscow’s refusal to pursue peace in Ukraine. Treasury says the move aims to cut Kremlin war funding and support President Trump’s push for a ceasefire.
OBSERVATION - This is a biggie, making even China pause in its Russian oil procurements.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 40-50 degree range with rain and rain showers
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
During the night of Oct 23-24, Russia launched 128 attack drones, including around 90 Shaheds, from multiple directions. Ukrainian air defense shot down or jammed 72 of them across the north, south, and east. 47 drones hit 10 locations.
Russian losses per 24/10/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+910 men
+1 tank
+5 ACVs
+34 artillery
+1 MLRS
NOTE - days missed saw a large drone / missile attack by Russia, Ukraine drones hammering key Russian oil and defense facilities and around the 1000 losses levels.
Notable strikes by Ukrainian attack drones saw them penetrating over 1,000 miles of Russian airspace to successfully hit the Plastmass explosives plant. Another attack had drones penetrated 1200 km of Russian airspace to successfully strike the Dagnotekh oil refinery.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Bolohivka of Kharkiv region and Pershotravneve(Zlahoda) of Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine, of Dronivka village of Donetsk region of Ukraine and Bolohivka of Kharkiv region and Pershotravneve(Zlahoda) of Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine
Analysis and Future Operations —
Nothing significant to change the face of the war happened the past few days. Drone/missile attack cycle continued, as well as moderately heavy fighting locally along the front. The biggest thing was watching the geopolitical play with Russia and the US. Trump is pulling out the bigger sanctions, even though they may impact some allies as well. As the war bleeds the Russian man-pool down, the assault on Russia’s bread and butter economic support -the oil industry - is seeing that bleed dry between Ukrainian strikes on refineries and pipelines on one side and now strong sanctions on the other.
Russian oil economy losses will play into analysis by many OSINT elements that 2026 will be the watershed year for the Russian military. Russia will be hard pressed to keep the numbers conscripted on the front, keep replacing tanks and other armor and pay for it without going into debt big time. At the present rate of advance, it will take Russia over a decade to seize eastern Ukraine. As long as Ukraine receives stable military support from the west, Russia has no capability at this time to speed the advance up if at all.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Ceasefire still continues to hold but barely.
- SecState Rubio meets with Netanyahu.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
US Secretary of State Rubio lands in Israel and meets with Netanyahu: “There is more work ahead of us, we intend to do the impossible – we will overcome the obstacles and get there”
***
The U.S. Central Command opened a Civil-Military Coordination Center in Israel, Oct. 17, marking the formal establishment of a main coordination hub for Gaza assistance five days after world leaders signed a U.S.-brokered plan to permanently end the war between Israel and Hamas.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Israel makes it clear it doesn’t want the PA involved in Gaza’s postwar administration.
***
Israeli PM Netanyahu warned POTUS that any Turkish presence in Gaza — military, security, or civilian — is a “red line for Israel,” reports @MaarivOnline, citing political sources.
Israel’s opposition is due to Türkiye’s strong ties to Hamas and its stances on Israel.
***
Dead hostages continue to come out of Gaza in small numbers. Israel accuses Hamas of deliberately slowing the repatriation of the remains.
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
Trump warns Netanyahu not to annex Judea and Samaria.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthi’s have been generally quiet over the past week
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
The elephant the room continues to be the resistance of Hamas to be disarmed and moved out of power. The negotiation team needs to realize this and start ramping up plan B for disarmament - military action. Until that happens, there will be no peace in the region.
Israel is continuing pressure Hezbollah throughout Lebanon. In spite of talking big, the Lebanese govt has done very little to disarm Hezbollah. Hence, Israeli drone and bomb strikes will continue into the distant future.
Lebanon -
The Israeli army carried out an airstrike on an alleged Hezbollah weapons depot in the Nabatieh region of southern Lebanon, military spokesperson Avichay Adraee said
***
An Israeli intelligence official tells Saudi Al-Arabiya that Hezbollah is ramping up efforts to rebuild its strength north of the Litani River and accuses Beirut of hesitating to act against Hezbollah. “We may act unilaterally and the consequences will be dire,” the official said.
Turkey –
The Turkish parliament has voted in favor of extending the Turkish military deployment to Iraq and Syria for another three years
Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025
Air defense batteries have been deployed along the Caribbean coast.
Two U.S. Air Force B-1B bombers flew a training mission over the Caribbean Sea on Thursday, marking the second time in a week that long-range U.S. bombers have flown over the region, according to two sources familiar with the operation.
OBSERVATION - The B1s were accompanied by F35s and had a C3 bird in the air as well. Definitely designed to raise the pucker factor of Venezulan forces. Additioanlly, Trump mentioned action on the ‘ground’, raising concerns of a strike on Venezuelan territory and not just at sea.
Seems that lots of democrats think that way, too.
CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025
Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WARNING as of Oct 25, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WARNING as of Oct 25, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
SF Bay area - Local Threat - ADVISORY as of Oct 25, 2025.
CRITICAL DATE - Nov 1, 2025, EBT and SNAP benefits are gone due to govt shutdown.
NOTE - Addition of the SF Bay area and downgrade in Portland and Seattle.
***
Weekend protest forecast.
With the NK 2.0 in the rear view mirror, this weekend appears to returning to a number of smaller protests covering a variety of topics across the nation. At this time, none appear to be posing a threat of violence, though conditions locally can change very rapidly.
Significant areas of violence continue to be the cities listed above as well as some in the Alameda area near the Coast Guard facility that was going to host govt agents set to take actions in San Fran.
***
A federal appeals court on Friday temporarily blocked President Trump from deploying Oregon National Guard troops to Portland after a judge issued a Temporary Retraining Order (TRO).
The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals temporarily reinstated Judge Karin Immergut’s TRO on Friday after it halted an order issued by a three-judge panel from the court earlier in the week.
OBSERVATION - More judicial activism attempts to stop Trump’s legal activation of the NG units. They probably fear a USSC stomping and are looking to cover their rears.
***
Emergency funds held by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cannot be used to keep the food stamp program going if members of Congress don’t reach a funding agreement, according to a memorandum obtained by The Epoch Times.
The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), which provides food stamps to some 42 million Americans living in low-income households, is set to run out of allocated money on Nov. 1.
The USDA, which had declined to say whether it would utilize the estimated $6 billion in contingency funds it has if Congress does not clear new funding, said in the new memo that “contingency funds are not legally available to cover regular benefits.”
OBSERVATION - Unlike other areas that Trump has been able to shift funds for, SNAP and EBT appear to be stuck. Social media continues to see ample numbers of threats to loot and rob if these funds are not renewed on the first.
***
From a couple days ago. Officers opened fire on a U-Haul truck that reversed toward security personnel outside Coast Guard Base Alameda during protests over a planned immigration crackdown. The driver was wounded and taken for physical and mental evaluation. The FBI is leading the investigation.
OBSERVATIONS - Even overnight there has been follow-on unrest in the bay area with more direct action protests. This U-Haul incident is interesting in that they tried to BACK the truck into the gate, possibly thinking that it would provide adequate protection from bullets until the breach was made. The driver FAFO’d and discovered the thin aluminum provided very little protection. The tactic did show the attempt at far greater aggression. Currently any surge in NG or federal forces is on hold due to Trump’s conversation with the Mayor and major business leaders (many friends in a way with Trump) who convinced him to let current law enforcement efforts to continue.
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
Americans who view economy as the top problem has PLUMMETED since President Trump took office
“A drop of 20 POINTS! Across ALL political groups!”
“Last year, 43% at this time...24% now!”
“It has been FALLING through the FLOOR...the percentage of Americans who say inflation is the top problem is ALSO falling! That’s surprising, given all the news we hear about the economy!”
In the average midterm election, 35% say economy is top problem. Today? 24%.
“It’s lower than we’ve historically been - despite the news that the economy is SUPPOSEDLY ‘softening.’”
https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1981739443875696867
OBSERVATION - Data from CNN (phewy) So either they totally screwed up the poll or something has shifted. What is lacking is just what IS the top problem.
***
In good news for American consumers, the September inflation rate came in at 3 percent, lower than expected and “smashing economists’ expectations” according to the Rapid Response X account.
These readings will also bolster the Trump administration’s argument that inflation is under control and tariffs aren’t triggering a cost-of-living surge.”
OBSERVATION - This will place more pressure on the Fed to lower rates more. They will not be happy with 3% but combined with the growing crisis in the labor market they should have no excuse not to lower.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has ordered an aircraft carrier strike group currently stationed in Europe to the Caribbean region amid a massive buildup of US military forces in the region.
The Gerald R. Ford strike group and its associated air wing are being sent to “dismantle Transnational Criminal Organizations and counter narco-terrorism,” Pentagon Press Secretary Sean Parnell said in a statement posted on X.
The Ford group was docked near the harbor of Split, Croatia on October 21. That would leave the ships more than 5,000 miles from the Caribbean, meaning it would take days for the group to be in position to launch any strikes.
OBSERVATION - That is one heck of a big stick forming in the Caribbean and it also leaves the Middle East without a carrier group for the first time in years.
***
According to an exclusive report from Aviation Week, the U.S. Army has ordered its fleet of experimental, high-altitude, business jet-based intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance aircraft, consisting of the Airborne Reconnaissance Targeting Exploitation Mission Intelligence System (ARTEMIS), the Airborne Reconnaissance and Electronic Warfare System (ARES) and the Army Theater-Level High-Altitude Expeditionary Next Airborne Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ATHENA), built into highly-modified variants of the Bombardier Global 6500, to the U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) Area-of-Responsibility. The aircraft will be recalled from ongoing deployments to Europe and the Indo-Pacific, tasked with supporting the Trump Administration’s escalating campaign against drug trafficking cartels across Latin America, as well as the Maduro Regime in Venezuela.
OBSERVATION - That giant sucking sound is that of all the SIGINT being collected by these platforms.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Top Democrats in both the Senate and House wasted no time twisting the truth. On Thursday, they seized on a single quote from the White House press secretary, ripped it out of context, and used it as ammunition in a blatantly dishonest attack on President Donald Trump. The move fits a familiar pattern from the left — distort what’s said, spread it through friendly media outlets, and hope the lie sticks before anyone notices the facts.
According to various Democrats, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt claimed that the ballroom addition is Trump’s “main priority” right now.
Here’s what happened: At Thursday’s press briefing, Leavitt gave what should have been an uncontroversial answer to a question about White House renovations. A reporter asked, “In addition to the ballroom and the Rose Garden patio, is the president looking at any other renovations or significant kind of projects here at the White House?”
Leavitt responded candidly: “Not to my knowledge, no. But he’s a builder at heart, clearly. And so his heart and his mind is always churning about how to improve things here on the White House grounds. But at this moment in time, of course, the ballroom is really the president’s main priority.”
OBSERVATION - In today’s fast news cycle realm, it is quick to be debunked and democrats just don’t get it. They are stuck in older news cycle models and as a result continue to get their rear ends handed to them when they try to do a ‘gotcha’ like this.
TRUMP Watch –
Trump is enroute for the ASEAN summit in Malaysia. There he hopes to meet with Xi to break thru trade and tariff issues.
Illegal Immigration –
ICE and DHS continue to go after violent illegals and haul them off for deportation in spite of leftists efforts to stop them.
China -
Political situation must be stable enough in China following the latest military purge for Xi to feel comfortable enough to travel out of country.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
Soap opera continues as Russia pours on the PR and propaganda threats against the west. In part to deflect blame for peace talk failures and to try to strip support from NATO nations to Ukraine.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 40-50 degree range with rain and rain showers
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight, Russia launched 9 Iskander-M missiles and 62 attack drones, including around 40 Shaheds. Ukraine’s air defense downed or jammed 54 targets, 4 ballistic missiles and 50 drones. Strikes hit 11 locations, with debris falling in 4 more.
Russian losses per 25/10/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+910 men
+4 tanks
+1 ACV
+15 artillery
Analysis and Future Operations —
Again, a relatively high number of missiles launched with small drone numbers. Action on the ground show moderately heavy action. OSINT observers noting that the Pokrovsk area has been receiving the focus by Russia and slight gains reported.
Weather continues to play a factor, and I think the window for a lot of action is closing as soon as enough rain has hit to turn the fields into a quagmire, giving Ukraine more advantage.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Sec State Rubio - UNRWA has not place in current peace efforts
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Secretary of State Marco Rubio is currently in Israel and made an announcement today that did not please the United Nations. During a press briefing, Rubio said that UNRWA, the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees, would not play any role in aid distribution within Gaza. He explained that “UNRWA became a subsidiary of Hamas.”
That came to a head on Wednesday of this week when the International Court of Justice (ICJ), whose authority the US does not recognize, issued an opinion stating that the US must allow UNRWA to provide aid to Gaza.
OBSERVATION - The UNRWA has been totally corrupted by Hamas and has actively participated in terror against Israel. ICJ also has no jurisdiction over Israel nor has the UN participated in any meaningful manner to stop Hama’s terror war and free any hostages. Both the ICJ and UNRWA have been told to pound sand some where else. BTW, the US is moving to totally stop any funding to UNRWA.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Now 5 days since the last time Hamas handed over the bodies of Israeli captives.
13 bodies of captives are still held in the Gaza Strip.
OBSERVATION - Hamas is stalling even though it could have handed over at least 5 additional bodies in its possession.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Hamas has not launched any further attacks on Israeli forces, but are still refusing to disarm as agreed to. They also appear to be deliberately slowing the repatriation of the bodies of hostages, as agreed too.
This present stale mate is allowing Hamas to regroup and rearm to a degree as the cease fire guarantors gaggle with a way to force them to relinquish both arms and control of the remaining third of Gaza.
Short an overt act by Hamas, things will remain at a dynamic tension. Israel is ready to drop the hammer as its INTEL collection continues to map and identify choice Hamas facilities, open to attack now that the living hostages have been released.
Lebanon -
More IAF targeted drone strikes on Hezbollah leaders in the south.
Colombia -
The U.S. Department of the Treasury today issued sanctions against Colombian President Gustavo Petro, as well as several of his supporters, including his wife, his son, and a close associate, alleging that under Petro, cocaine production in Colombia has exploded to the highest rate in decades, flooding the United States and poisoning Americans. Today’s sanctions follow several weeks of criticism by President Petro against the Trump Administration and its ongoing strike campaign against suspected narco-terrorist vessels in the Caribbean Sea.
OBSERVATION - Looks like Venezuela is first in line, with Colombia right after. Watching to see if forces build in the Pacific. Colombia borders both the Caribbean and Pacific.
Great news and the actions of the left actually validate the actions of the DHS and ICE.
Leavitt responded candidly: “Not to my knowledge, no. But he’s a builder at heart, clearly. And so his heart and his mind is always churning about how to improve things here on the White House grounds. But at this moment in time, of course, the ballroom is really the president’s main priority.”
Trump's such a breath of fresh air in a stale world. The ballroom will be great and won't cost much more than Obama's basketball court....
My guess is the friendly media is pressing the democrats for CWII. If it bleeds, it leads.
CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025
Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WARNING as of Oct 25, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WARNING as of Oct 25, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
SF Bay area - Local Threat - ADVISORY as of Oct 25, 2025.
CRITICAL DATE - Nov 1, 2025, EBT and SNAP benefits are gone due to govt shutdown.
NOTE - Addition of the SF Bay area and downgrade in Portland and Seattle.
***
Weekend protest forecast.
With the NK 2.0 in the rear view mirror, this weekend so far has seen smaller protests covering a variety of topics across the nation. At this time, none appear to be posing a threat of violence, though conditions locally can change very rapidly.
Significant areas of violence has been seen at the Portland ICE facility as part of the ongoing siege by Antifa et al.
***
Portland saw more minor violence overnight as Antifa et al attempted to blockade the ICE facility and got into fights with Trump supporters. Portland police continued to allow protestors to block the city streets citing that is their 1st amendment right.
***
Former Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot announced that she is forming a nonprofit organization called the “ICE Accountability Project,” designed to collect and publish identifying information about federal immigration enforcement agents operating in the Chicago area.
The initiative, Lightfoot said, is aimed at tracking agents from U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) as part of the ongoing Operation Midway Blitz.
OBSERVATION - Part of the ongoing efforts by leftists to threaten the lives of agents and their families with violence.
***
Department of Justice Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche fired off a warning letter to several prominent California Democrats, noting that recent threats to arrest federal ICE agents could prompt an investigation and prosecution.
The letter came in response to Democrat Rep. Nancy Pelosi’s (CA-11) public suggestion that local or state police could detain ICE agents if they are found to have violated state laws.
Blanche hammered Democrats for not supporting federal immigration officers in their efforts to enforce the law and instead threatening them with their own arrests. Additionally, he essentially warned them to back off.
“The Department of Justice views any arrests of federal agents and officers in the performance of their official duties as both illegal and futile,” he wrote. “Numerous federal laws prohibit interfering with and impeding immigration or other law-enforcement operations.”
Blanche, pointing to the Supremacy Clause as an example, warns that the DOJ will “investigate and prosecute any state or local official” who attempts to defy federal statutes.
The letter was addressed to Pelosi, California Governor Gavin Newsom, Attorney General Rob Bonta, and San Francisco District Attorney Brooke Jenkins, all Democrats.
Blanche goes on to advise the recipients to “preserve all written and electronic communications and records related to any attempts or efforts to impede or obstruct federal law enforcement officials,” strongly suggesting they “publicly abandon” threats against ICE agents.
OBSERVATION - State and local threats to arrest and prosecute federal agents going about their tasks is growing evidence of a governmental split with DC / Trump. Setting up alternative, competing governmental structures and laws.
Of course, the associated calls for violence against agents is more than bad enough, and there are enough nut jobs out there that will take that encouragement to violence seriously.
Terrorism - Threat Level - ADVISORY as of OCT 26, 2025
Downgraded due to declining global threats and middle east war
***
Axios reported on Friday that White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles called the Secret Service to her office to chew them out over a major security breach last month when Hamas-supporting Code Pink radicals were allowed to get within feet of President Donald Trump at a restaurant during what was supposed to be a surprise night out on the town in Washington, D.C., with senior officials to highlight the success of the Trump administration’s crime-fighting surge in the nation’s capital.
Two major concerns about the incident were
- who tipped off Code Pink and
- that there were knives on the table between Trump and the protesters.
Two advance White House staffers ushered the protesters away. (Not Secret Service!)
The protest by Hamas-supporting Code Pink radicals at the restaurant appearance by President Trump took place on September 9. The next day, close Trump ally Charlie Kirk was assassinated by a sniper at a public appearance in Utah.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/10/secret-service-chewed-susie-wiles-after-hamas-supporting/
OBSERVATION - Very serious security breach last month. Even worse, the lack of action by SS once the threat was obvious. Hopefully, since this was over a month ago, underperforming SS agents have been reassigned janitorial positions and leaks ID’d and silenced. Trump has had at least 3 assassination attempts, one of which was nearly successful. Can’t tolerate security failures of this sort.
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
Retail goliath Walmart this week announced the return of its famous Thanksgiving Basket meal, including a turkey and all of the fixings, that it says will serve 10 people for less than $4 per person. Turkey at lowest price since 2019 at $0.90/lb.
OBSERVATION - Much of the costs reduction reflects back on the multiple years of bird flu that caused US flocks to decimated by culling, creating shortages. Hopefully will see prices for chicken start falling lower as well.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Observers are noting that about 20% of the deployed US Navy fleet is, or will be, in the USSOUTHCOM area of responsibility within the next few weeks.
More warships are assigned to SOUTHCOM than EUCOM or CENTCOM.
OBSERVATION - This is going way beyond a show of force into something more significant.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Wrangling continues over the govt shutdown. Democrats keep refusing selective CRs to fund key sectors of govt, such as military pay and even SNAP/EBT. Conventional wisdom was that they would pass the CR shortly after the NK 2.0, but so far have doubled and tripled down against attempts to move the needle. PA Senator Fetterman may be key in moving some moderate democrats away from the leftists and voting for the CR.
Do democrats really believe that instigating SNAP/EBT riots and looting is going to garner support for their cause? If they believe their press releases they do.
INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –
Trump has announced that he will be raising all tariffs on Canada by 10%, in response to an anti-tariff ad paid for by the Government of Ontario which was played last night during the World Series and used snippets of a radio address on free and fair trade given by President Ronald Reagan on April 25, 1987.
TRUMP Watch –
Trump at ASEAN summit in Malaysia. Key milestones so far:
- Treaty between Cambodia and Thailand
- Movement towards trade agreement and meeting with Xi
China -
Economic officials from China and the U.S. reached a preliminary consensus after discussions on a range of issues including the extension of their trade truce, fentanyl and export controls. The second day of trade talks between the U.S. and China was paving the way for a “productive meeting” between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping, Washington’s top trade envoy said in Kuala Lumpur on Sunday, raising hopes of a deal between the world’s two largest economies.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/trump-china-trade/2025/10/26/id/1231872/
Asia General –
Cambodia/Thailand -
The leaders of Thailand and Cambodia have signed a ceasefire agreement in the presence of U.S. President Donald Trump.
The accord was concluded roughly three months after five days of cross-border fighting between the two nations. During the clashes, President Trump called for an immediate halt to hostilities and suspended trade talks with both countries.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Russia has successfully tested its nuclear-powered Burevestnik cruise missile, a nuclear-capable weapon Moscow says can evade any defence system, and will move towards deploying the weapon, President Vladimir Putin said on Sunday.
Russia’s top general, Valery Gerasimov, chief of the general staff of Russia’s armed forces, told Putin that the missile travelled 14,000 km (8,700 miles) and was in the air for about 15 hours when it was tested on October 21.
Russia says the 9M730 Burevestnik (Storm Petrel) – dubbed the SSC-X-9 Skyfall by Nato – is “invincible” to current and future missile defences, with an almost unlimited range and unpredictable flight path.
OBSERVATION - Russia has had many failed tests, so the singular ‘successful’ test maybe just an outlier. Even yet, this beast may not see much production. Much of the capabilities stated are propaganda.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 40-50 degree range with rain and rain showers
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight, Russia launched 101 attack drones, including around 60 Shaheds, from multiple directions. Ukraine’s air defense shot down or jammed 90 of them across the north, south, and east. Hits were recorded at 4 locations, with debris falling in 5 more. The worst hit is the Desnianskyi district, where a Shahed drone struck a 9-story residential building, collapsing multiple floors. At least 26 people were injured there, including five children.
Russian losses per 26/10/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+900 men
+4 tanks
+18 ACVs
+15 artillery
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
This morning near Volodymyrivka, Russian forces tried to break through the 33rd Mech Brigade’s line with five armored vehicles from Novotoretske. Three got stuck in the mud, forcing troops to dismount into water. Ukrainian artillery and HIMARS quickly struck the exposed infantry. Three vehicles sank, two were destroyed. Confirmed Russian losses: 1 MT-LB, 1 motorcycle, 4 KIA, 2 WIA.
Russian forces reportedly were attempting to take advantage of fog in the area.
General Staff of Armed forces of Ukraine: Ukrainian military had liberated Sukhetske village in Donetsk region, Pokrovsk sector
Reports that Ukraine has regained control over Kucheriv Yar and the surrounding area, ending the Russian encirclement there, Russian troops were either killed or captured. Ukraine also recaptured territory east of Vilne and Nove Shakhove, and liberated Sukhets’ke and Zatyshok. Fighting continues for Fedorivka, while Russian pushes toward Shakhove and Volodymyrivka have failed. Pressure is growing on Russian units west of Shakhove.
The situation in Pokrovsk is difficult, the General Staff acknowledges. Around ~200 Russians have already infiltrated into the city center, where street battles have emerged. Ukrainian sources also confirm the situation is deteriorating.
Analysis and Future Operations —
As noted above, action in the Pokrovsk sector has increased significantly over the past few days. Ukrainian successes have been in the northern portion where a Russia sailent was created trying to envelope Pokrovsk from the north. That salient is mostly eliminated now. Infiltration of Russians from the south into Pokrovsk reflects the current tactic, getting a toehold behind defenses and causing a break down of logistics and command / control. Key will be just how quickly Ukraine can get control of these infiltrators and fill the gaps in the defenses they snuck in thru.
Also on note - vehicles involved in the assault near Volodymyrivka, (from above) were “stuck in the mud” Indicators that the infamous Ukrainian mud season is developing and will severely limit Russian tank/armor/vehicle support for future assaults.
Pakistan / Afghanistan –
Threat Level ADVISORY - OCT 26, 2025 -
Ceasefire continues to hold, lowering Threat Level accordingly
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas accused of deliberately delaying the release of dead hostages.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
US President Donald Trump on Saturday night called on the Hamas terror group to immediately return the bodies of deceased hostages.
He noted, “Some of the bodies are hard to reach, but others they can return now and, for some reason, they are not.”
“Perhaps it has to do with their disarming, but when I said, ‘Both sides would be treated fairly,‘ that only applies if they comply with their obligations. Let’s see what they do over the next 48 hours. I am watching this very closely.”
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-105/
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
US military has been flying ISR missions over Gaza in recent days to monitor ceasefire commitments on both sides, per US officials
***
Israeli Defense Minister: 60% of Hamas’ tunnels remain in place, and I have instructed the army to make their destruction a central mission in areas under our control.
NOTE - The Hamas tunnel network is larger than the subway network under London by most accounts.
***
An Israeli security official says that as part of the efforts to recover the bodies of the deceased hostages, the Israeli political leadership approved Egypt’s request to allow an Egyptian team with equipment to enter Gaza in order to assist in the effort to locate the bodies. The team and equipment have entered the Gaza Strip, the official says
***
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said U.S. officials are getting input on a possible UN resolution or international agreement to authorize a multinational force in Gaza and will discuss the issue in Qatar on Sunday.
“Many of the countries that have expressed an interest in participating at some level — whether it be monetary or personnel or both — are going to need that (a UN resolution or international agreement) because their domestic laws require it,” Rubio told reporters traveling on his plane between Israel and Qatar en route to Asia.
“So we have a whole team working on that outline of it.”
OBSERVATION - Israel has stated it will have some degree of veto over what nations participate.
***
Following the IDF’s new deployment along the yellow line, four Gazan militias / clans now operate against Hamas, all within areas under IDF control
- Ashraf Al-Mansi – Beit Lahia (North Gaza)
- Rami Khalas – East Gaza City (North Gaza)
- Husayn Al-Astal – Central Khan Yunis (South Gaza)
- Yasser Abu Shabab – East Rafah (South Gaza)
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Hamas is using the delay in releasing the remains of hostages as a means to avoid in the short term moving to Phase 2 of the agreement which includes disarmament. Most likely even after all the remains have been returned, Hamas will refuse to disarm. This is one hurdle that will likely require Israel to resume combat operations.
IDF has been nurturing relations to militias/clans that oppose Hamas, now coming to fruition. These elements can directly engage Hamas beyond the ‘Yellow Line” that Israel can’t cross. This should help reduce Hamas attempts to cross the line and launch attacks against IDF.
Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025
Tehran moves to reassure depositors after Ayandeh Bank collapse, transferring assets to state-owned Bank Melli amid mounting economic pressure and renewed international sanctions.
Iran has declared one of its largest private banks bankrupt and transferred its assets to a state-owned institution, Iranian state media reported on Saturday, in what appears to be a rare financial failure in the heavily sanctioned country.
According to the Turkish daily “Türkiye Today”, Ayandeh Bank collapsed under mounting debt. The bank, which was established in 2012, operated 270 branches nationwide, including 150 in Tehran. It reportedly accumulated losses of approximately $5.2 billion and had liabilities of some $2.9 billion, the ISNA news agency said.
Long lines formed outside Ayandeh branches in Tehran on Saturday as police were deployed to manage crowds, AFP reported.
Bank Melli, a state-owned lender, has assumed control of Ayandeh’s assets following a decision by the Central Bank of Iran. Officials sought to reassure depositors that their funds remained secure.
Ayandeh clients ‘have nothing to worry about’
“The transfer from Ayandeh Bank to Bank Melli has now been completed,” said bank director Abolfazl Najjarzadeh in an interview broadcast on Iranian state television. Economy Minister Ali Madanizadeh stated earlier in the week that Ayandeh clients “have nothing to worry about.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/iran-declares-major-private-bank-083923303.html
Associate reports of crowds flooding the streets of Tehran after word got out that Ayandeh Bank was officially declared bankrupt, leaving billions in savings at risk. Scenes outside branches turned chaotic, elderly Iranians begging for access to their life savings, police in riot gear trying to contain the crowds.
OBSERVATION - Iranian banks are on edge due to the same conditions that took Ayandeh down. Nothing says economic freefall than bank failures.
Lebanon -
The latest drone strike targeted an excavator in the town of Blida, south Lebanon.
***
The Israeli army said it killed Hezbollah leader Zein al-Abidin Hussein Futouni in an airstrike on the Jebchit area in southern Lebanon.
Misc of Note –
The sudden slowing of action globally has not eased by concerns of something major happing in the near future. It has generated a general unease to me. Can’t put my finger on it, but something global in magnitude is on the horizon. Many options out there including financial meltdown, natural disaster(s) or other political turmoil.
Top of my list is resurgent Globalist and deep state actions - they’ve been quiet for too long.
As big of a threat that it is, the impeding EBT/SNAP riots are not in that mix. But they may serve as a precursor.
Admittedly, I am a pessimist by nature, which drives me to scour the inter webs for early warnings.
A lot of people are feeling that sense of a major global event happening soon.
You’re not alone.
And what with winter coming, it behooves us to be prepared for whatever may happen, including being well stocked with essentials at home and the means to protect it.
This is a good time of year for prepping as most stores have sales for holiday cooking.
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