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Threat Matrix 2025

Posted on 01/01/2025 6:44:53 AM PST by Godzilla

Welcome to Threat Matrix 2025

For historical reference TM2024 link is 

https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4207046/posts?q=1&;page=1#1

Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 24th year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.

2024 has been “historic”: - The landslide election of Trump back into the Whitehouse, and the collapse of the massive lawfare effort against him. - Assassination attempts on Trump - Stunning defeat of Hamas and Hezbollah by Israel - Israel directly hits Iran after Iranian missile strikes, eliminating Iranian missile production capabilities for several years as well as destroying most of its air defense assets. - The almost overnight overthrow of Syria’s Assad and the associated serious losses to Russia and Iran/Hezbollah

I expect 2025 to be even worse as we are facing: - Massive political infighting as the Swamp tries to thwart the Trump agenda - Potential for civil unrest and violence driven by the communist left and Antifa affiliated elements. - Potential violence as Trump implements is deportation plan for millions of illegals. - The potential for a serious and deep recession - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - Combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Russian nuclear threats - China making a move on Taiwan - Israel and Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems.

It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.

For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.

How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.

Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.

My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose – even more so following 2022.

So buckle up for the ride. This is an open thread that I want to continue as a clearing house of tidbits of intelligence contributed by the FR community so that we are all aware of what’s happening and what the impacts of those events will be. Knowledge is power


TOPICS: Government; Miscellaneous; Politics; Society
KEYWORDS: threatmatrix; threats; tm
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To: Godzilla
OBSERVATION - AI infrastructure being developed to allow the globalists to not only monitor, but to be able to eventually control people and narrative when the next “crisis” hits. This all goes hand in glove with the desire for a digital ID that is tied into credit and monetary controls.

I see they’re getting ready for the next control the world pandemic.

981 posted on 10/20/2025 4:06:12 PM PDT by metmom (He who testifies to these things says, “Surely I am coming soon." Amen. Come, Lord Jesus….)
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To: Godzilla
At separate “No Kings” event in Chicago, a man reportedly urged attendees to shoot U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents. “You gotta grab a gun, we gotta turn around the guns on this fascist system. These ICE agents gotta get shot and wiped out,” the man, who stood in front of a banner for the Progressive Labor Party, apparently said. “The same machinery that’s on full display right there has to get wiped out.”

Democrats know how to trigger their crazies... mix that with AI 'insights' into how to manipulate humans and we could have a mess. A psychopath is a person missing the pain that goes with a conscience. AI is NOT capable of 'feeling pain'. It's a recipe for creating a psychopath to end all psychopaths...

982 posted on 10/20/2025 7:18:48 PM PDT by GOPJ (Sicko 'doctors' that sexually mutilate children are worse than Epstein <P><I><B><big><center></B>)
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To: null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..


CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025

CRITICAL DATE - Nov 1, 2025, EBT and SNAP benefits are gone due to govt shutdown.

Authorities nabbed an armed illegal immigrant after he allegedly placed a $10,000 bounty calling for the deaths of federal immigration agents in Dallas, Texas. Agents continue to face mounting threats all across the nation.

Mexican illegal immigrant Eduardo Aguilar called for “10 dudes in Dallas with determination who aren’t afraid to [two skull emojis],” and offered “10K for each ICE agent” in an Oct. 9 TikTok post, according to the Department of Homeland Security. The latest threat comes just weeks after a sniper opened fire on an ICE facility in Dallas, killing two detainees despite intending to target federal agents.

https://www.dailywire.com/news/armed-illegal-immigrant-arrested-after-offering-bounty-of-10k-for-each-ice-agent-in-dallas

***
9th circuit court rules trump can deploy NG to Portland.

A U.S. appeals court has ruled that the U.S. government can deploy National Guard troops for federalized service in Portland. A judge had previously sided with Oregon Democrats, believing the argument that it was not needed.

OBSERVATION - Follows same transjectory as the LA decision. Expect a similar decision in the Chicago appeal. Title 10 is pretty straight forward and NG deployments fit like a hand in glove to those requirements.

OVERALL OBSERVATIONS - NK 2.0 is drifting away into he past, a big geriatric nothing burger.

Freeing up NG for Portland may likely cause violence to flair up for a short period as Antifa tests the mettle of these forces. City leadership will likely squeal and push an appeal to the full 9th circuit, but that would be a waste of taxpayer money, thought that hasn’t stopped them before.

The lack luster NK 2.0 may cause a slow down in Antifa attacks on facilities, but may result in targeted attacks /assassination attempts on officers and families. Big hit money is floating around out there (see above) providing an incentive as well.


Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

GasBuddy reports that the U.S. national average price of gasoline has dropped under $3 per gallon for the first time since 2020.

OBSERVATION - Good and bad news. Cheaper prices is wonderful, however drops like this can also be a harbinger of worsening economic conditions that could reflect a recession.


POLITICAL FRONT –

Democrats continue to refuse to cross the isle and support the clean CR. Now the republicans are putting forth separate funding bills for essential govt workers. Democrats have already rejected an earlier bill to fund the military, and will likely reject this bill as well. They will reject any CR that doesn’t contain their expensive political add ons - to include funding health care for illegals.

Things are pretty flat on the political commentary side over NK 2.0. There have been some rumblings that the actual turnout may have been in the 3 million range, but that hasn’t been confirmed. I don’t believe it was near the 7 million mark, which is likely overstated, but 3 million seems kinda low too.


TRUMP Watch –

Leftists have their underwear in a knot over renovations being done at the WH saying it is unprecedented. Sorry, FDR made substantial renovations and Truman redid the whole building for example.


Illegal Immigration –

DHS announces the start of “Operation River Wall” to secure the Rio Grande against “illegal immigration, narco-terrorists, and other criminal activity at our Southern Border. The Coast Guard will surge response boats, shallow watercraft, command and control assets, and tactical teams; beginning with more than 100 boats and hundreds of personnel.

OBSERVATION - The Rio Grande region has historically been the major smuggling axis from Mexico into the US. I’m not sure of the status of the wall in this sector, so it may still be under construction, still allowing illegal traffic.


China -

FOLLOW UP - On October 17, China’s Ministry of National Defense announced that the Communist Party’s Central Committee and Central Military Commission had, after investigations, removed nine senior officers from their posts in the People’s Liberation Army.

The stunning announcement occurred on the eve of the long-delayed Fourth Plenum of the Party’s 20th Central Committee, scheduled to start tomorrow, October 20, and continue for four days. On the agenda are crucial economic matters, including the country’s 15th Five-Year Plan, which covers the rest of the decade, 2026-2030.

https://www.americanpartisan.org/2025/10/has-xi-jinping-lost-control-of-chinas-military-and-china-itself/

OBSERVATION - Some analysts are theorizing that the removals were not directed by Xi, but by his political enemies. They point to the removal of the most senior of the nine officers axed on the 17th was General He Weidong, the second-ranked vice chairman of the Commission and Xi Jinping’s No. 1 loyalist in the PLA. The general had gained prominence as Xi’s top enforcer in the military.

Bottom line - intrigue and a very slim chance Xi will be removed. Xi has been getting increased pressure from economic failures of the past 4 years but I’m not convinced that a soft coup is going to happen.


Japan –

Its official. Japanese parliament has elected Sanae Takaichi as the first female Prime Minister of Japan.


Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

A planned meeting between advisors to Presidents Trump and Putin has been postponed. The delay follows a lack of progress in talks between Marco Rubio and Sergey Lavrov, who had differing expectations regarding ending the war - CNN


Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 40-50 degree range with rain and rain showers

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukraine is ready to stop hostilities along the current front line. The current line of contact should become the starting point for negotiations, – joint statement by Zelenskyy and other European leaders

Overnight Russia launched 2 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles, 4 3-300 missiles and 98 strike drones of different types, - Ukrainian air forces

Russian losses per 21/10/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff.

+1130 men
+8 tanks
+37 AFVs
+23 artillery

Russian assault crushed near Mala Tokmachka on the Orikhiv front. Around 2 companies from the 71st Motor Rifle Regiment advanced with 26 vehicles, including tanks, BMPs, BTRs, and “Tigrs.” By 20:00, Ukrainian forces had destroyed 2 tanks, 12 BMPs, 6 BTRs, and 2 Tigrs. The rest were either wiped out or fleeing.

Analysis and Future Operations —

Low drone/missile activity, though I find it interesting of the minor change in tactics, including missiles to low numbers of drones. In the past , drone counts were much higher before substantial numbers of missiles were added to the mix.

Growing evidence that Russian attempts to force breakthroughs is failing as up to battalion sized units are being thrown against Ukraine defenses only to be soundly defeated. Not sure if the daily count of Russian losses includes the assault near Mala Tokmachka, but this is one of the highest counts of tank and APV losses I’ve seen in quite a while. This is along the southern part of the front along a road that leads eventually to Zaporizhzhia. Months ago there were rumors of a planned Russian attack in this sector. Whether or not this is part of that is uncertain at this time. If it is, then such an offensive is off to a pretty bad foot.

Russian has continued to receive heavy losses in the Pokrovsk sector, north of the fortress town. The breakthrough there earlier this summer has been decimated and only a few pockets of isolated Russian forces reportedly remain. Until now, this was the main area Russia had thrown what little tanks and armor it had available to bring relief to the isolated forces.

On a strategic level, more talk and that’s all about a ceasefire and peace settlement. Its not going to get anywhere in the near term, only when Russia feels a greater economic pinch from Ukraine petroleum strikes and stricter economic sanction will the needle start to move.


ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Ceasefire still continues to hold but barely.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

VP Vance in Israel on ceasefire talks and inspections

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Hamas ceasefire violations continue:

Earlier today (Monday), the IDF identified several terrorists who crossed the yellow line and approached IDF troops operating in the Shejaiya area, posing an immediate threat to them. They were taken out.

Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz instructed the IDF to send a clear message to Hamas leaders in Gaza through the American supervision mechanism:

- Every Hamas terrorist found beyond the yellow line in the territory controlled by Israel must evacuate immediately. Hamas leaders will bear responsibility for any incident.

- Anyone who remains in the area will be targeted without any further warning, in order to allow IDF forces to operate freely and immediately against any threat.

***
Following the return of the body of Tal Haimi, the bodies of 15 more deceased hostages are still in the Gaza Strip.

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

Palestinian outlets report Israeli operations tonight across nearly 20 towns and villages around Nablus

OBSERVATION - Hamas and other radical jihadists have been attempting to gain a foothold in Judea and Samaria for years now. They have been hampered in the past by the PA who views them as a threat to their rule.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

The Qatar’s Emir sharply criticized Israel and accused it of violating the ceasefire in Gaza, without mentioning the terrorist organization and the serious incident in Rafah where 2 IDF soldiers were killed

OBSERVATION - No mention of the violation and attack by Hamas causing it. Qatar again showing that they are not the honest broker to be involved in this ceasefire.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Hamas continues to walk a thin line with Israel ready to pulverize remaining areas of Gaza should a serious breach of the agreement occur again.

Nearly half of the remains of Israeli hostages have been returned. However, they do not hold the leverage that the living hostages had, but Hamas is attempting to milk as much anti-Israeli sentiment out of them as possible.

Near term, I expect Hamas to continue to probe Israel positions. The ultimate goal would be to be able to snatch some soldiers for more hostage conditions to resume. They ‘ve done similar in the past. I don’t think Hamas has enough reorganized force to go toe to toe with the IDF at this stage and will need a longer period to reconstitute its forces. In doing so, they could potentially see the wrath of Israel, with Trump’s full support, fall on them again. Trump does a lot of warning which Hamas may see as weakness, but they had better remember that same pattern of talk towards Iran just before the big bunker busters fell. That is a tool available for the US to use to directly punish Hamas. We are not going in on the ground to disarm them at this stage. However, the peace ‘partiners’ of Turkey, Egypt and Qatar are not really being forward about the effort to disarm either. Eventually, that will require a military solution as their pseudo diplomatic solution is failing.


Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025

Iran announced: The agreement with the IAEA is canceled
The Secretary of Iran’s National Security Council, Ali Larijani, announced today the cancellation of the agreement reached in Cairo last month, which was intended to allow a gradual return of supervision and inspections at nuclear sites in Iran.

OBSERVATION - That move is unlikely to cause the snapback measures to be removed, and likely will reinforce them instead.


Lebanon -

American Envoy to Lebanon and Syria, Tom Barrack:

“If Lebanon continues to hesitate on the disarmament of Hezbollah, Israel will act unilaterally.”

OBSERVATION - This has been the state of S Lebanon since the ceasefire. Israel has already continued to act unilaterally to strike Hezbollah targets. Not clear at this stage if IDF will advance northward again to clear out the region in detail or not. However, that is not off the table.


Colombia -

With the snap of a finger, Colombian President Gustavo Petro said they will need to “get rid of Trump” if the U.S. President doesn’t get rid of himself. In that snap, he made certain his words were not confused for some call for minor political action. Without directly saying the words, Petro insinuated that President Trump needs to be assassinated.

In a tense sit-down that left even the interviewer rattled, Petro declared his growing disdain for President Trump. Univision’s Daniel Coronell was at the presidential palace in Bogotá when Petro made the inflammatory remarks that are now sending shockwaves across borders. His intention was clear. The threat is real.

https://thelibertydaily.com/colombian-president-issues-not-so-veiled-threat-get/

OBSERVATION - Things have been collapsing since Trump was elected. Petro is a hard core leftist in the midst of a region that is shifting to the right.

***
Colombia has recalled its U.S. ambassador after a sharp diplomatic clash between Presidents Petro and Trump over American strikes on suspected drug boats in the Caribbean.



983 posted on 10/21/2025 5:52:37 AM PDT by Godzilla (“When tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty” - Thomas Jefferson)
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To: Godzilla

You can tell which governments are run by cartels by how they respond to President Trump.


984 posted on 10/21/2025 6:32:22 AM PDT by metmom (He who testifies to these things says, “Surely I am coming soon." Amen. Come, Lord Jesus….)
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