Threat Matrix 2025

Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 24th year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.

2024 has been “historic”: - The landslide election of Trump back into the Whitehouse, and the collapse of the massive lawfare effort against him. - Assassination attempts on Trump - Stunning defeat of Hamas and Hezbollah by Israel - Israel directly hits Iran after Iranian missile strikes, eliminating Iranian missile production capabilities for several years as well as destroying most of its air defense assets. - The almost overnight overthrow of Syria’s Assad and the associated serious losses to Russia and Iran/Hezbollah

I expect 2025 to be even worse as we are facing: - Massive political infighting as the Swamp tries to thwart the Trump agenda - Potential for civil unrest and violence driven by the communist left and Antifa affiliated elements. - Potential violence as Trump implements is deportation plan for millions of illegals. - The potential for a serious and deep recession - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - Combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Russian nuclear threats - China making a move on Taiwan - Israel and Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems.

It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.

For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.

How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.

Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.

My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose – even more so following 2022.

So buckle up for the ride. This is an open thread that I want to continue as a clearing house of tidbits of intelligence contributed by the FR community so that we are all aware of what’s happening and what the impacts of those events will be. Knowledge is power

Globalism / Great Reset –

Joint Statement by Secretary of State Rubio, Secretary of Energy Wright, and Secretary of Transportation Duffy-

President Trump has made it clear that the United States will not accept any international environmental agreement that unduly or unfairly burdens the United States or harms the interests of the American people. Next week, members of the IMO will vote on the adoption of a so-called NZF aimed at reducing global carbon dioxide gas emissions from the international shipping sector. This will be the first time that a UN organization levies a global carbon tax on the world.

The Administration unequivocally rejects this proposal before the IMO and will not tolerate any action that increases costs for our citizens, energy providers, shipping companies and their customers, or tourists. The economic impacts from this measure could be disastrous, with some estimates forecasting global shipping costs increasing as much as 10% or more. We ask you to join us in rejecting adoption of the NZF at the October meeting and to work together on our collective economic and energy security.

The NZF proposal poses significant risks to the global economy and subjects not just Americans, but all IMO member states to an unsanctioned global tax regime that levies punitive and regressive financial penalties, which could be avoided. The United States is considering the following actions against nations that support this global carbon tax on American consumers:

- Pursuing investigations and considering potential regulations to combat anti-competitive practices from certain flagged countries and potential blocking vessels registered in those countries from U.S. ports;
- Imposing visa restrictions including an increase in fees and processing, mandatory re-interview requirements and/or revisions of quotas for C-1/D maritime crew member visas;
- Imposing commercial penalties stemming from U.S. government contracts including new commercial ships, liquified natural gas terminals and infrastructure, and/or other financial penalties on ships flagged under nations in favor of the NZF;
- Imposing additional port fees on ships owned, operated, or flagged by countries supporting the framework; and
- Evaluating sanctions on officials sponsoring activist-driven climate policies that would burden American consumers, among other measures under consideration.

The United States will be moving to levy these remedies against nations that sponsor this European-led neocolonial export of global climate regulations. We will fight hard to protect our economic interests by imposing costs on countries if they support the NZF. Our fellow IMO members should be on notice.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2025/10/15/taking-action-to-defend-america-from-the-uns-first-global-carbon-tax-the-international-maritime-organizations-imo-net-zero-framework-nzf/

OBSERVATION - This carbon tax by the UN has been in the works for a while and the US told them to pound sand.

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025

UPCOMING -
- “No Kings 2.0”, 18 October 2025

***
The American Federation of Government Employees (AFGE) urged furloughed federal workers to join the 18 October No Kings 2.0 demonstrations. AFGE said the protest movement has taken on more urgency with the Trump administration’s “authoritarian powergrab” during the federal government shutdown.

***
(FO) Anarchist collective Crimethinc published a call to action for anarchist affinity groups to organize anti-authoritarian blocs for the No Kings 2.0 demonstrations on 18 October. The anti-authoritarian blocs would hold post demonstration events to recruit demonstrators and teach direct action planning.

FO OBSERVATIONS (I concur)
The far left has been unable to spur mass mobilization since the 2020 election. Far left organizers likely see No Kings 2.0 as a potential catalyst for public mass mobilization and a recruiting nexus for direct actions.

***
CHICAGO -

An 8-foot security fence surrounding the Broadview, Illinois Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) processing facility has been removed at the order of a U.S. District Court judge.

Judge Lashonda Hunt ordered the removal of the security fence last Friday, claiming that the temporary fence was on municipal land without permission and allegedly violated local ordinances by blocking emergency vehicles.

Hunt had ruled that the fence violated safety code because the gate was 16 feet wide, rather than the 20-foot requirement adopted by the village under the International Fire Code.

The judge’s order stated: “DHS’s Beach Street gate creates a quasi-federal zone where the Village’s ability to respond to emergencies is hindered and only allows it to provide lifesaving services at the whims and fancies of the Federal Defendants.”

The timing of the removal of the fence has raised concerns that there will be one less barrier between ICE agents and protesters during this coming weekend’s large-scale “no kings day” protests scheduled across the nation.

https://www.americanpartisan.org/2025/10/federal-judge-orders-ice-to-take-down-security-fence-at-broadview-illinois-facility/

RELATED -
Chicago that the south side of the ICE Broadview facility has been declared a “no protest zone” - after the FENCE was forced to be taken down by a judge.

“The demonstrators are now restricted to a small zone on the northeast side, and the protestors don’t like it!”

Activist group the Coalition Against Broadview ICE Facility said it will not obey the new order, and will continue demonstrating in previous protest zones.

OBSERVATION - Being appealed, but it is being forced down for now, leaving the facility dangerously exposed. This is a new tactic the left is using via lawfare to limit ICE - enforcement of local laws and regulations.

The city of Broadview has put in new limits on where free speech areas are allowed, no longer permitting protests where the fencing has been removed. However, since when have Antifa elements bothered to follow the law.
Should Antifa renew an attack on this side of the facility, I expect that the govt will reinstall the fence, demonstrating that the local police are incapable of backing up the judge’s order or maintain security. It could also trigger deployment of the TX NG contrary to another judge’s order to secure the facility, citing real security concerns that override the judgement.

***
(FO) Chicago, IL area anarchists vandalized three U-Haul and Budget Rental trucks in an “attack back,” retaliation for federal agents using those brands’ rental trucks during a major 2 October raid on a Chicago apartment complex. The anarchists urged activists and affinity groups to scout out U-Haul and Budget Rental trucks to vandalize.

***
BOSTON -
(FO) Boston, MA prosecutors charged 13 demonstrators with “promotion of anarchy,” after a 7 October pro-Palestine rally that turned violent. Officials said the “promotion of anarchy” charges were brought after police found social media advertisements for the event that included violent imagery.

***
NATIONAL -
Mother Jones recently published an article that stated that “soft secession” could lay the groundwork for “a new confederacy”…
“With Trump provocatively sending troops into blue cities, and using recision and the shutdown to claw back congressionally appropriated funds from blue states, it’s time to turn the tables on him. Soft secession, powered by the presidential ambitions of multiple blue-state governors, could, should it come to that, be the proving ground of a new confederacy. Hopefully the threat of CalExit or a new Union will be enough. But that extreme measures might be necessary to ensure that American democracy shall not perish from the Earth is becoming more self-evident with every passing day.”

https://endoftheamericandream.com/talk-of-secession-by-blue-states-rises-as-incidents-of-violent-civil-conflict-become-more-common-in-major-u-s-cities/#google_vignette

OBSERVATION - Leftists say what they intend to do and those of us on the right seem immune to accept those threats as being real. Talk of a national divorce grew out of the 0bama days as red areas came under increasing oppression from blue sectors of the country. This was revealed in the now classical blue/urban versus red/rural standoff. Those dynamics have shifted to some degree with some red gains, however, the sentiment has changed little, nor have some of the potential dynamics.

Kalifornia, for example, is ruled by the leftists concentrated in the states large cities - SF Bay, Sacramento, LA, etc. Leave the city limits, the color quickly flips to red. On a land basis, nearly 3/4 of Kalifornia is red. Should the left in Kaliforina attempt to separate, there will likely be an internal schism as well, as the red counties will refuse to follow that leadership. There was an effort by those red areas to separate into a new state, not sure what the status of that movement currently is. But I’m confident that should kalifornia try to leave the union, it will have trouble within its borders. Should the S hit the fan big time, the blue urban areas will struggle keeping supplied as it would be easy for the red areas to enforce a blockade.

Now multiple this scenario across other “blue” states and things would get ugly fast.

Toss in the ascendant moslem movement/concentration for spice. . . . .

Are things actually moving in this direction? Recent events indicated that this movement has started in Kalifornia and Illinois in particular. Smaller levels in Chicago and Seattle.

***
Should the democrats regain power at the national level, one can expect the full militarization of the police/federal govt to lock up those who voted for Trump and followed his directives -

“The Illinois Governor is now threatening to throw ICE and other federal agents in PRISON.”

The massive Stasi actions under biden will pale under the hand of a democrat president and congress - you can bet your ammo box on it.

***
A new poll shows that the majority of voters in America support President Donald Trump’s deployment of the National Guard to defend Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) facilities across the United States.
A poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports from October 7 to October 9 shows that 52 percent of likely U.S. voters support Trump’s deployment of the National Guard to defend ICE facilities, which have faced repeated attacks by left-wing protesters over the past several months. The 52 percent of voters who support Trump’s deployment of the National Guard includes 39 percent of likely U.S. voters who strongly support the deployment of National Guard troops to defend ICE facilities.

https://americanmilitarynews.com/2025/10/majority-of-americans-support-deploying-natl-guard-to-defend-ice-facilities-poll-shows/#google_vignette

***
There is growing talk from both sides about Trump looking to implement the Insurrection Act to circumvent the current round of activist judges barring activation of NG for protection of govt facilities, namely ICE and DHS in hot bed cities.

IMHO, such action by Trump would be waaaaaay to early and without substantial justification at this stage. It is better to slog thru the appeals to these judges and (re)establish his authority as CinC than to make a major jump. What would trigger that jump? Again IMHO would be mass violence on the level seen in the 2020 Floyd /BLM riots. Anything less could easily be spun as a mad power grab the “See I told you so” elements of the left.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Senate Majority Leader John Thune is looking to back Democrats into a corner by bringing a full-year Pentagon funding bill to the Senate floor on Thursday.

In doing so, Thune aims to force Democrats to take action — and perhaps move toward an end to Washington’s weeks of paralysis — as a government shutdown stretches into its third week with no end in sight.

Thune’s move marks a deliberate escalation by Senate Republicans, who hope to break the stalemate by daring Democrats to vote against military funding.

The Senate democrats have now rejected the House-passed stopgap nine times, including once on Wednesday, with another vote expected Thursday.

https://www.newsmax.com/us/shutdown-thune-democrats/2025/10/15/id/1230545/

OBSERVATION - Polls showing that public opinion is continuing to shift against the democrats on the shut down. This is a brilliant move, preserve national defense and strip a debate point from the dems at the same time.

***
Panic is worsening among Democrats after it sinks in just how many Republican House seats will be picked up through redistricting by 2026

“Democrats could lose 19 SEATS! This is a HUGE amount!”

“Florida could be a gold mine! [...] EVERYTHING left over is an advantage to the Republicans!”

“The Supreme Court is CONSIDERING the end of the Voting Rights Act!”

https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1978137851637182750

OBSERVATION - Democrats have over the years over jerry rigged the congressional districts to gain their advantage. This season’s redistricting has come with republicans in power in many of these states and courts not interfering as they have in the past. Big ticket item is the growing likelihood that the USSC will eliminate special districts based solely on race. Look to discussions from yesterday’s hearing. The shockwaves will be huge and nothing Kalifornia can do will stop the surge.

MORE RELATED -

Political analysts are saying that if the USSC overturns the sections of the Voting Rights Act,, it could lead to the redrawing of congressional districts across the south that, by some estimates, could flip more than a dozen seats from Democratic to Republican.

Do the math - redistricting alone a +19, add +12 from the USSC decision to a huge +31 pickup for the republicans.

***
In another question, the Rasmussen Reports poll asked U.S. voters, “Do you agree or disagree with this statement: ‘We have seen, over the last nine months, an ongoing legal insurrection in which district court judges … have issued rulings that are flagrantly unlawful and unconstitutional’?” In response, 56 percent of likely U.S. voters agreed with the statement, while 31 percent of likely U.S. voters disagreed with the statement.

https://americanmilitarynews.com/2025/10/majority-of-americans-support-deploying-natl-guard-to-defend-ice-facilities-poll-shows/

OBSERVATION - More public opinion running against the MSM/democrat narrative.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

The US has issued an ultimatum to Putin: “It’s time to end the war and come to the peace table — or the U.S. War Department stands ready to do our part in ways that only the United States can do,” said US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth.

https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1978488628339974332

OBSERVATION - More likely along the lines of providing military systems like the Tomahawk and intel to enhance Ukraine deep strikes against strategic targets. The only other action I can see is actual intercept and seizure of Russian ‘black fleet’ ships under sanctions.

Economic Impact –

Some Indian refiners to move away from Russian oil, sources say.

OBSERVATION - Some related rumblings suggest that Trump tariffs are squeezing Indian oil refiners and forcing them to seek other sources. If they stop buying Russian oil, the Russian economy will take another serous hit.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 30-50 degree range with widely scattered showers

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

The Ukrainian Air Force reports on the overnight drone/missile attack.

Shot down:
283/320 Shahed type drones
0/2 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles
0/26 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles
0/2 Iskander-K cruise missiles
5/7 Kh-59 cruise missiles

This includes 18 missiles that were lost by location

Russia launched drone and missile strikes hit the DTEK Naftogaz energy infrastructure. As a result, gas production facilities in Poltava region were forced to halt operations, the company reported.

Ukraine drones attacked an oil refinery in Kstovo of Nizhniy Novgorod region.
Ukraine also struck the Saratov Oil Refinery in the Saratov
Region. Saratov Oil Refinery is one of Russia’s oldest, processing 4.8 million tons of crude annually as of 2023 and supplying the Russian military.

In Volgograd region, the 500 kV “Balashovskaya” substation near Uryupinsk was hit overnight by Ukrainian drones according to Russian sources. The substation plays a key role in transferring electricity from the Volzhskaya hydroelectric plant to central Russia. Local officials confirmed the strike and resulting fire.

Russian losses per 16/10/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1080 men
+2 tanks
+9 AFVs
+42 artillery

Russian sources confirm the de-facto loss of Oleksiivka, Sumy region. Ukrainian forces are already in the center and control the southern part. Attempts to bring in Russian reserves are failing, with most units taking heavy losses before reaching the front. Russian channels admit Oleksiivka will have to be abandoned.
NOTE - This is one of the Russian penetrations from the past summer that failed to have follow on forces available to secure the flanks.

Analysis and Future Operations —

Russia ramping up for another large drone/missile strike within the next couple days. Ukraine power and oil/gas will be largely targeted as like last year.

Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to hammer Russian petro industry and power. It seems Russia is unable to provide protection for these refineries and other related sites, like oil pumping stations. Successive hits are making these big producers go off line for at least months if not longer as the parts necessary to replace are scarce and costly.

On the ground, moderately heavy fighting is indicated. Ukraine apparently is continuing to have success pinching off Russian penetrations from the summer, and inflicting heavy losses on Russian forces, both in manpower and equipment.

Recent reports of increased company and battalion sized “armor” attacks could be considered to be probing / recon in force efforts ahead of the anticipated Russian winter offensive. So far it appears that each was decimated with heavy losses.

The “winter offensive” seems to be stalling out in execution, unless waiting for the ground to freeze following the upcoming mud season. The increased conscription call up may also be delaying it, as the Russian forces need more bodies to fill out their units. It may also be stalling out due to logistical impacts, currently potential fuel shortages, and interdiction of key rail roads. With the touted Russian Summer/Fall offensive turning out to largely be a nothing burger, the stakes are higher to successfully initiate a winter campaign. Russia has lost a lot of the initiative it was able to generate with the many limited penetrations of Ukraine lines. Now that has switched as Ukraine is eliminating these penetrations, and Russia is losing forces trying to retain them. The infiltration tactics Russia used for these limited breakthroughs are being countered by Ukraine defenses, making it harder to successfully conduct more such attacks.

Poland –

A new drone incident disrupted NATO’s Falcon Autumn drills in Poland, Rzeczpospolita reports. Belarusian-plated cars were spotted near a Dutch camp site, followed by unidentified drones that jammed communications. The exercise was restructured, and Dutch EW systems were flown in. Commanders called it a “valuable lesson” in operating under electronic threat.

Europe / NATO General –

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz called for stronger European military power, stating “only strength preserves peace.” He announced a national plan to counter Russia’s hybrid warfare and reaffirmed full support for Ukraine. Merz proposed using frozen Russian assets to give Ukraine €140B in interest-free military loans.

***
Poland’s Foreign Minister warned European leaders in London yesterday that Europe needs to be preparing for Russia to conduct strikes deep into Europe. NATO Secretary-General Rutte said that NATO and the EU are working together to set up a “drone wall.” German Defense Minister Pistorius announced an $11 billion investment into European drone defense to take the lead on the project.

Pakistan / Afghanistan –
Threat Level WARNING - OCT 15, 2025 -

The Pakistani Air Force struck Kabul and Kandahar , Afghanistan overnight.

The Pakistani government and Afghanistan’s ruling Taliban on Wednesday agreed to a temporary 48-hour ceasefire after fresh clashes erupted this week and saw more than a dozen civilians and troops killed.

OBSERVATION - The Taliban have no effective air force or air defenses. Pakistan can penetrate Afghan air space at their pleasure. On the ground, Taliban may have some edge if they can effectively coordinate their actions with coreligionists in Pakistan. At present , I don’t see either country seeking territorial gains, and a war of attrition is being set up.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Two more bodies of dead hostages turned over to Israel.

- More pressure on Hamas to adhere to the full agreement.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Today marks one year since the death of the monster Sinwar. He was the leader of Hamas and mastermind of the Oct 7 massacres.

***
Israeli Defense Minister ordered the IDF to prepare a plan to defeat Hamas in Gaza if fighting resumes. If Hamas rejects the Trump plan (return hostages, disarm, etc.), Israel, with US coordination, will resume operations to destroy tunnels and terror infrastructure.

Trump to CNN: I will consider allowing Netanyahu to return to fight in Gaza if Hamas refuses to fulfill its part of the deal - “As soon as I say the word”

***
Israeli Radio, citing an official, said: Israel does not intend to begin the second phase of the agreement before the bodies of all the kidnapped soldiers are returned.

Hamas says 19 hostage bodies are unaccounted for - and will remain so, in the absence of large-scale and foreign-assisted forensic excavation

***
Based on multiple Gaza-based accounts, once the crossings open, we may see as many as 500,000 Gazans flood out of the Strip.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Israeli army updates: The Houthis in Yemen stopped launching drones and ballistic missiles at Israel with the start of the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip

The Houthi Chief of Staff targeted by the IDF has been confirmed eliminated. The Houthis only acknowledged it now — the strike occurred on August 28.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Delays in repatriating remains of hostages and refusal of Hamas to disarm and step down continue to lead the general situation. There are legitimate difficulties getting to some of the buried bodies, but Hamas had over a week to get it accomplished in preparation for the ceasefire.

Israeli / US actions against Hamas’ refusal to disarm and step aside from rulership of Gaza are likely weeks away. IIRC, the policing action falls on Egypt, Turkey and Qatar first to get this accomplished. However, only a fool will accept that Hamas will do this willingly.

Hamas is also continuing its campaign of terror by executing Gazas suspected of being favorable to Israel as well as fighting local clans for control.

If the rumors are correct, there will be a new refugee crisis should Egypt forcefully prevent these 500,000 Gazans from fleeing the war torn area. Historically, these so called ‘palestinians’ have been like locust to surrounding arab countries, causing trouble in Egypt, then Jordan and Lebanon.

Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025

Trump: “I received important intelligence indicating that Iran is once again restoring its nuclear capabilities - the US and Israel are closely monitoring these actions. If Iran continues on the path to building an atomic bomb, we will attack Iran again. Iran told us that it is acting to produce civilian, not military, nuclear material but our eyes are still on them.”

OBSERVATION - Rhetoric before action. Key is that Iran has to rebuild its uranium concentration operations to the extent necessary to get to the 60% and then fission grade 90% levels again. The stockpile of 60% enriched uranium seems to be securely buried under the rubble of the site taken out by US bunker busters. Chances are the containers have been broken and uranium is scattered about the underground facility - creating a serious radiation hazard should Iran attempt to recover what’s left.

Lebanon -

Lebanese Parliament Speaker: Lebanon adheres to Resolution 1701, and Israel must be compelled to implement the ceasefire, halt its daily attacks, and withdraw from the territories in the south.

OBSERVATION - Absent the proclamation is the fact that Lebanon has not disarmed Hezbollah as per the same agreement. Lebanon’s failure has given Israel the rights under 1701 to strike Hezbollah.

Syria -

Sky News Arabia correspondent: An agreement will be reached regarding the renewal of Russia’s control over its air and naval bases in Syria. Contracts will be signed with Russia to arm the Syrian army, especially in the field of air defense. Russian companies will contribute to the reconstruction of infrastructure in Syria. Russia will support the Syrian government in expanding its influence in the country.

OBSERVATION - Russia’s desperation to maintain those bases gave the new regime in Damascus the leverage to extract a lot of investment from Russia. One thing is for sure, the attempts to rearm Syria with air defense assets will result in routine Israeli airstrikes to turn those shiny toys into burned out hulks.

Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025

Several (3) U.S. Air Force B-52H Stratofortress long-range strategic bombers flew over the southern Caribbean Sea yesterday, approximately 300-500 km north of Venezuela’s coast. Venezuelan F-16s were reportedly scrambled in response.

***
The Trump Administration has secretly authorized the CIA to conduct covert actions, including lethal operations, in the Southern Caribbean and Venezuela, as part of the latest step in the administration’s intensifying pressure campaign against drug trafficking cartels in the region and the Venezuelan Government under Nicolás Maduro, according to senior officials who spoke with the New York Times.

***
Venezuela launched three Integral Defense Operational Zones (ZODI) in Nueva Esparta, Sucre, and Delta Amacuro in response to the U.S. military’s presence yesterday. On Monday, Venezuelan President Maduro said that he would continue activating ZODIs through each state. The ZODIs are regional tasking zones for the Venezuelan military which include protecting oil and petrochemical plants, gas pipelines, fuel storage facilities, and service stations “based on the possibility of U.S. military aggression.”

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

UPCOMING -
- “No Kings 2.0”, 18 October 2025

Weekend forecast - There is increasing potential for varying levels of violence and vandalism associated with tomorrow’s NK 2.0 event. This time around there seem to be more calls for violence - see below.

Democrats trying to tie into the current shut down to gain attendance.

NK 2.0 may spill over into anti-ICE direct actions in the usual places.

Overall, conditions are more unstable than in previous weekends.

***
NO KINGS -

It is incredible the social media blitz the left is throwing out there to rally the troops for NK 2.0. In some cases vile, others complete fabrications and repetition of points long debunked. They also seem to be followed by the bots cheering them on.

Also is a growing voice for adding violence to these protests in some manner. The previous marches did nothing to move the needle in their favor. Now, activists are reaching into the violence tool box to try to crank up the pressure. On the extreme end, some activists/influencers on the left are even calling for BLM like riots.

***
Gavin Newsom says that people attending the “No Kings” protest this weekend, need to DECLARE their independence from the US government..

OBSERVATION - As I noted earlier, this is a parallel current to the build up of the threat of violence this weekend. Borderline call for insurrection?

***
Crimethinc @Thinc_Exworkers, one of the largest and most influential violent Antifa organizing sites, has released a call-to-action for anarchist extremists to infiltrate the “No Kings” protest on Oct. 18.

The last No Kings protest was marred by deadly violence when one of the volunteer “peacekeepers” fired upon an armed far-left man, thinking the man was a MAGA threat, who was also there for “security.” The liberal “peacekeeper” shot and killed an innocent bystander. No one has been charged.

Antifa often embeds in larger liberal protests, using the crowd as human shields to commit vandalism or violence and then blend back in to evade detection. When police make arrests or use crowd control tools, lying journalists say peaceful protesters are being arrested. Antifa also uses these events to recruit and radicalize people by distributing texts or inviting attendees to training events or after-action meetings. Antifa are desperate to garner more mainstream support after President Trump announced he intends to dismantle their terror cells.

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1978924902355783875?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

***
(FO) No Kings 2.0 organizers and activists said they are preparing for potential escalation with federal agents and military personnel during the planned 18 October demonstrations. The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) said it is providing de-escalation and know-your-rights training for activists, and is preparing for demonstrations in cities currently under federal surges. Portland, OR officials said they are also preparing for potential escalations between demonstrators and federal forces.

OBSERVATION - This is part of the puzzle where elements of the NK 2.0 are looking at conducting act of violence. They will try to cover it with claims of govt initiated violence or actions.

***

ANTIFA GENERAL -

Federal prosecutors in Texas have for the first time filed terrorism charges targeting antifa, FBI Director Kash Patel said Thursday, citing President Donald Trump’s recent designation of the far-left anarchist movement as a terrorist organization.

Cameron Arnold of Dallas and Zachary Evetts of Waxahachie, Texas, were charged on Wednesday with providing support to terrorists for their alleged role in the non-fatal shooting of a police officer at an immigration detention facility. Both were arrested in July with eight others and charged with attempted murder and weapons offenses.

https://www.newsmax.com/us/prosecutors-antifa-terrorism-charges/2025/10/16/id/1230734/

OBSERVATION - This will be the first court application of the new terror designation. Will the courts allow this to stick or not.

***
Chicago -

Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker (D) said the Illinois State’s Attorney and Attorney General are considering plans to prosecute ICE agents and Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) officers over allegations of misconduct.

***

OTHER -

Socialist Rifle Association likes to portray themselves as a left wing gun rights/education organization, but they’re simply not, they’re a violent group connected to attacks including the Alvarado shooting (Benjamin Song was a member)

Also they don’t advocate gun rights, SRA chapters have directly stated their goal is disarming “those who stand in our way”

https://x.com/antifawatch2/status/1978900322920862101?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - SRA has regained some of the spotlight in recent months with leftist shooters being linked to this organization. Goal is to bring training to generally gun adverse leftists as a means to eventually develop an armed cadre for later revolutionary violence.

***
It is now being widely reported that food stamp SNAP benefits will end for many Americans starting Nov 1 if the government shutdown continues. The USDA reportedly does not have continuing authority to disperse funds, and it simply may not have the funds in the first place.

It’s not difficult to predict that if food stamp benefits are halted on November 1, we will have nationwide food riots by November 3, if not sooner.

Nine meals away from anarchy. Never forget that.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Senate Democrats on Thursday blocked a bill that would have funded the Pentagon for a full year, thwarting an effort by Republicans to restart some federal funding as the government shutdown stretched into its 16th day.

The tally was 50-44, falling short of the 60 needed to advance the measure in the 100-member Senate. The vote was largely along party lines, with President Donald Trump’s fellow Republicans voting in favor and all but three Democrats objecting.

https://www.newsmax.com/politics/shutdown/2025/10/16/id/1230686/

OBSERVATION - Democrats digging themselves in deeper.

***
I’ve been watching the developments in the New York mayoral race and Zohran Mamdani. Odds are that he will be elected in spite of all the racial marxist goals he has espoused. It seems the voters of NY have lost their minds.

The destruction of NYC as a financial center, should Mamdani get elected and have his way, will send shock waves across the country and even the world. Free everything and we’ll just tax the rich to pay for it - until the mobile rich pick up and move, along with their fortune 500 company headquarters. Then the only ones left will be the functionally poor trying to support the massive tax structure and deliberately bloated budget.

This is a clear instance of marxist/islam looking to burn everything down to damage not only the city but the country as a whole.

TRUMP Watch –

Reporter: Did Putin try to dissuade you from selling Tomahawk missiles?

President Trump: Well of course. What do you think he’s going to say, “Please sell Tomahawks?” Is he gonna say, “Please sell those Tomahawks, I really appreciate it?” I did actually say, “Would you mind if I gave a couple of thousand Tomahawks to your opposition?” I did say that to him — I said it just that way.

Reporter: And what was his response?

President Trump: He didn’t like the idea. He really didn’t like the idea. No, I said it that way — you have to be a little bit lighthearted sometimes. But no he doesn’t want Tomahawks — Tomahawk is a vicious weapon, it’s a vicious, offensive, incredibly destructive weapon. Nobody wants Tomahawks shot at them.

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1978937043339338013?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

Trump announced that in US-Russia talks on ending the war in Ukraine, the American side will be represented by Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff.

Illegal Immigration –

(FO) The Chief Justice of the Cook County, IL Circuit Court ruled that ICE cannot conduct immigration arrests in county courthouses without a judicial warrant. Chicago officials and activists urged the Illinois legislature to pass a law banning immigration arrests without judicial warrants at all Illinois courts.

OBSERVATION - A continuation of ‘lower’ level legal obstacles being thrown at ICE to thwart otherwise very legal operations. The apparent design of these activist judges is to flood the appellate and USSC with these appeals to generate a quagmire in law enforcement.

***
Chicago, IL activist group Belmont Cragin United is hosting “Whistlemania” training events. At the events, local activists assemble kits that include whistles, Know Your Rights guides, and community resource guides for illegal aliens to alert neighbors when federal immigration operations are nearby.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

On Thursday, following his conversation with Trump, Putin gathered the permanent members of the Russian Security Council in the Kremlin and provided a detailed account of the meeting, - according to Ushakov.

***
Trump: It was a very productive conversation with Putin. We spent a great deal of time talking about Trade between Russia and the U.S. when the War with Ukraine is over. At the conclusion of the call, we agreed that there will be a meeting of our High Level Advisors, next week. The United States’ initial meetings will be led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, together with various other people, to be designated. A meeting location is to be determined. President Putin and I will then meet in an agreed upon location, Budapest, Hungary, to see if we can bring this “inglorious” War, between Russia and Ukraine, to an end.

President Trump says he will meet Vladimir Putin in Budapest “within two weeks” for talks on ending the war in Ukraine, following what he called a “very productive” 2.5-hour phone call. Hungary’s withdrawal from the ICC allows Putin to visit despite his arrest warrant.

OBSERVATION - Trump now focusing on the Ukraine war now that Gaza is handled for at least the short term. After Alaska, I think Trump will be more aggressive this time around and not yield the initiative to putin.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 30-50 degree range with widely scattered showers

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight on October 17, Russia launched 70 attack drones, including Shaheds, Gerans, and other types, from multiple directions including Millerovo, Kursk, Primorsko-Akhtarsk, and occupied Crimea. Ukrainian air defenses shot down or jammed 35 drones so far, mostly over northern and eastern regions.

Ukrainian attack drones successfully struck the Gvardeyskoye fuel depot in Russian-occupied Crimea, setting the facility ablaze. The depot supplie(d) fuel to a large portion of Crimea.

Overnight, Ukraine drones struck the “Vladimirskaya” substation in the Energetik suburb of Vladimir. This 750 kV energy hub is a critical node in Russia’s central power grid, essential for electricity transmission and supply stability across the Vladimir region and beyond.

Russian losses per 17/10/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+730 men
+5 tanks
+10 AFVs
+35 artillery
+1 AD system

***

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Unconfirmed. Russia blew up an ammonia pipeline to poison Ukrainian defenders, then watched its massive relief column get obliterated anyway.

Russian commanders hoped the toxic cloud would clear a path for a massive assault column to reach trapped soldiers near Pokrovsk, deploying six tanks, over 40 armored vehicles, and hundreds of troops.

Instead, Ukrainian drone operators turned the advance into a massacre, destroying over 60 vehicles and killing more than 100 troops in a matter of hours.

By nightfall, the road to Volodymyrivka had become another “road of death” littered with burning wrecks, and the trapped Russian forces remained cut off.

Russians launched a large-scale Russian mechanized assault toward Dobropillia on 16 Oct, using 22 armored vehicles and IFVs. UKR destroyed 9 vehicles and damaged 4 with artillery, FPV drones, minefields, and coordinated counter-attacks.

Analysis and Future Operations —

The fight on the northern flank of the Pokrovsk salient is developing into a substantial short term turning point in favor of Ukraine. The extent of Russian losses here may be part of the driving factor of elevated numbers over the course of the past month.

Russia managed a minor breakthrough in the area north of Pokrovsk, threatening encirclement from the north as well as interdiction of key supply routes. As with so many Russian operations, they failed to have sufficient follow up forces to secure the flanks and Ukraine pounced in counter attacks to cut the Russian forces off. OSINT analysts indicate that the Russian forces have been isolated into three pockets. The farthest pocket - Dobropillia - was the objective of the most recent Russia effort. They drove right into a trap and faced the Ukrainian buzz saw.

The Pokrovsk region in general is one of the axis Russia has rumored to be looking at as one of their objective areas for their ‘winter’ offensive. Not sure if current losses are playing into any Russian changes in planning, but clearly Russia will be facing some pretty smart Ukrainian commanders and troops should they try to push this sector.

Europe / NATO General –

Sweden will start filing up its silos with food for the first time since the Cold War amid fears of a war with Russia.
After ending its long-standing policy of military non-alignment and joining Nato in 2024, the Scandinavian country is taking some drastic measures to ‘build strength in the new total defence.’

Its government announced plans to invest £45 million (575 million kronor) – as part of the 2026 budget – to set up the grain reserves.

Civil defence minister Carl-Oskar said: ‘We are well aware that the risk of Sweden becoming completely cut off is very low, but the risk of complex supply chains being disrupted with major and unpredictable consequences in the event of war and conflict is unfortunately more likely.’

Bohlin said in a statement that the first emergency grain stocks will be in the north of Sweden, a region that risks being isolated in a conflict.

https://metro.co.uk/2025/10/15/sweden-begin-stockpiling-food-first-time-since-cold-war-24432144/

OBSERVATION - This goes along with other preparations by other countries to try to prepare the population for a war.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- IAF hammers Hezbollah sites in S Lebanon
- Israel and other nations place pressure on Hamas to recover the remains of dead hostages.
- Hamas continues its reign of terror against Gazans.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

President Donald Trump issued his sternest warning yet of Hamas terrorists amid the tentative ceasefire enacted Monday.
“If Hamas continues to kill people in Gaza, which was not the Deal, we will have no choice but to go in and kill them,” Trump wrote Thursday on Truth Social. “Thank you for your attention to this matter!”

https://www.newsmax.com/politics/hamas-donald-trump-terror/2025/10/16/id/1230669/

***
Jerusalem Post: Israel has blocked the entry of a Turkish delegation that includes rescue teams and heavy machinery from entering the Gaza Strip. Israeli officials said, “Hamxs can immediately return the bodies of the abducted; there’s no reason to allow Turkish crews into Gaza.”
Senior Israeli officials added that Hamxs knows the location of most of the hostages’ remains. In many cases, they said, Hamxs is aware of where the bodies are buried and can reach them, though in some instances heavy equipment would be needed for recovery.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain reportedly sent a message to the Trump administration warning that Qatar can’t be trusted in its role in Gaza, and that they won’t put any money toward Gaza’s reconstruction until Hamas is actually disarmed.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Potential for injection force to stop the indiscriminate killing of Gazans by Hamas is growing. Trump’s use of “we” not really firm - US alone or allowing Israel to launch strikes. Optimal would be Israel working with some of the clans fighting Hamas to use drone strikes on these groups of Hamas. They have made themselves easier to identify by dusting off their uniforms. Israel could justify on the basis that Hamas is violating the agreement to disarm.and that the weapons being used against Gazans can easily be used against them. Lets not forget, Turkey threatened to invade Israel not too long ago.

As noted before, hamas refusal to disarm will likely be the action that takes the whole peace plan down. With no living hostages to hide behind, Israel will be able to be far more aggressive in their push back into Gaza City.

Israel’s push back to Turkish assets going into Gaza is a clear display of who’s in charge. Turkish elements would only mess up the situation, should things go hot again. This is Israeli controlled territory and they are calling the shots. Israel further points out that at least half of the remaining bodies are easily accessible to Hamas.

Lebanon -

The Israeli army says it carried out airstrikes against several Hezbollah sites near the southern Lebanon village of Mazraat Sinay, which were being used by the terror group to restore its capabilities. Among the targets was a quarry where Hezbollah produced concrete to rebuild its facilities that were destroyed during the fighting last year, according to the IDF.

OBSERVATION - Once again, this activity is what the Lebanese govt is suppose to be preventing, but isn’t.

Syria -

The Syrian government and the main Kurdish-led force in the country’s northeast have agreed in principle on a plan to merge the U.S.-backed force as a cohesive group into the national army, SDF commander Mazloum Abdi told @Hogir_Abdo for the @AP

Thousands of SDF members join new army under deal

OBSERVATION - Very touchy move. With Turkish backing the govt, they could use this as an excuse to force Syria to try to disarm the SDF, making it easier for it to attack Kurdish elements in Northern Syria. It also doesn’t reduce pressure by the AQ related supporters of the Syrian govt who are separate from the military.

Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025

The U.S. military carried out a new strike in Caribbean against suspected drug vessel, there are survivors. - Reuters

OK, today I remembered to add the ping list :)

Globalism / Great Reset –

US-led alliance wins a year’s delay in adoption of green shipping deal

The IMO’s Net-Zero Framework will be up for approval again in October 2026, after the US and Saudi Arabia persuaded countries not to vote on it as planned

Joe Lo News editor

…
In April 2025, governments provisionally agreed the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) Net-Zero Framework (NZF), which would penalise high-emitting ships around the world and use the money to fund the transition to cleaner vessels and fuels.
…
The NZF was scheduled to set emissions reduction targets for ships starting in 2028. But this – and the rest of the framework’s timeline – have now been plunged into doubt. Although some technical work can continue, political progress will have to wait until October 2026 when delegates will next take up the issue of whether to adopt the NZF.

Why a deferral rather than a cancellation?

Green obsessed member states and UN officials are likely still clinging to the hope they can shift the political landscape in favour of supporting this new tax on prosperity.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2025/10/17/winning-global-shipping-carbon-tax-one-year-deferral/

OBSERVATION - They will never give up their goals and are very willing to play a long game to get what they want, just like the delays in the WHO’s pandemic ‘treaty’, which only moved incrementally forward this year. For them, shifting the political landscape means finding some way to neuter Trump and the US will not be be under such a tax scam.

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

UPCOMING -
- “No Kings 2.0”, 18 October 2025

Democrats trying to tie into the current shut down to gain attendance. The organizers of the “No Kings” protests say that gatherings will take place at more than 2,500 locations around the US.

NK 2.0 may spill over into anti-ICE direct actions in the usual places.

Overall, conditions are more unstable than in previous weekends.

***
Governors in Texas and Virginia have activated their state’s National Guard troops, however it is unclear how visible the military presence will be.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c93xgyp1zv4o

OBSERVATION - In TX, potential threats of Antifa related violence is one reason for activation. Most likely area would be Austin, a hotbed of violent liberal activity.

***
Antifa have been posting flyers around the ICE facility in Portland calling for their violent militants to embed within the “No Kings” protest and agitate for violence. The call for that direct action originates on the Antifa online collective, Crimethinc.

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1979175581099987322?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

***
George Soros’ foundations are funding the “No Kings” protests that Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and tens of thousands of protesters will be participating in on Saturday.

Soros, a billionaire investor and notorious Democratic Party donor, is founder of the Open Society Foundations.

In 2023, the foundation, through the Open Society Action Fund, issued a two-year grant of $3 million to the Indivisible organization. The grant was “to support the grantee’s social welfare activities,” according to the Open Society Foundation’s website.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/soros-foundation-helping-fund-anti-trump-no-kings-protests-nationwide

MORE RELATED -
The Democratic Party’s dark-money NGO network, bankrolled by left-wing billionaires, is reportedly preparing to activate a coordinated, color-revolution-style mobilization across the U.S. this weekend - a replay of failed agitation attempts seen earlier this year targeting President Trump and Elon Musk. The operation, marketed under the “No Kings” banner and portrayed publicly as a grassroots movement, in reality functions as a professionalized protest-industrial complex. Its composition includes a blend of paid activists, white boomers suffering from Stage 4 Trump Derangement Syndrome, and a smaller contingent of organic, unhinged leftists who recite MSNBC talking points by heart.

Drilling down into the dark-money network funding No Kings are investigative researchers Peter Schweizer and Seamus Bruner of the Government Accountability Institute. Their new bombshell report exposes how the protest-industrial complex, dubbed “Riot, Inc.,” is, in their words, “FUELED BY BILLIONAIRES.”

“We traced $294,487,641 to the official No Kings 2.0 partners & organizers...all funneled through the same “Riot Inc.” dark-money networks: Arabella network $79.7M+ Soros network $72.1M+ Ford network $51.7M+, Tides $45.5M+, Rockefeller $28.6M+, and Buffett $16.6M+,” Bruner wrote on X.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/fueled-billionaires-no-kings-prepares-color-revolution-style-mobilization-against-trump

OBSERVATION - The big buck communistic billionaires who’ve been funding these ‘protests’ has been pretty well known, and without their support, this ‘grass roots’ movement would never have gotten off the ground.

***
Fired CNN host Don Lemon argued that “black people and brown people” need to start carrying guns in the event that they’re swept up in an ICE raid - and indicated that it’s his belief that this is what the Founding Fathers had in mind when they crafted the Amendment.

Lemon made the comment on “The Left Hook with Wajahat Ali,” where he claimed that he was not “condoning or promoting violence” but that he was tired of “the niceties” while ICE agents were “rounding [people] up off the street without due process” and “sending them off to a gulag.”

“If you believe in the Second Amendment, if you believe in the Constitution, Black people, Brown people of all stripes, whether you’re an Indian American or a Mexican American or whoever you are, go out in your place where you live and get a gun legally. Get a license to carry legally,” Lemon said. “Because when you have people knocking on your door and taking you away without due process as a citizen, isn’t that what the Second Amendment was written for?”

“Nobody is illegal,” Lemon argued, pretending to not understand that being an “illegal” alien pertains to their immigration status, not their status as a human being. “It is a misdemeanor to cross the border.”

https://silverloch.com/crazy-don-lemon-now-calling-on-people-to-arm-themselves-against-ice

OBSERVATION - Lemon is a wash out, but is still dangerous as the extremists of the left still follow him. He is speaking what they already want and plan to do. As such he is a useful idiot.

***
More Incitement (Stoicastric violence?)
Democrat governor who called Republicans “Nazis” and U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) “Gestapo” accused the White House of hate speech Thursday.

Responding to a social media post of comments by White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, Governor Tim Walz (D-MN) accused the administration of inciting hate:

“The White House says outrageous things to make you hate your neighbor.
“Your neighbor isn’t the problem. The White House is.”

Department for Homeland Security Assistant Secretary for Public Affairs Tricia McLaughlin said in a statement that Walz’s “Gestapo” comments were “sickening,” and claimed similar rhetoric and demonization of ICE officers has led to a 413% increase in assaults on immigration officers.

In February, Gov. Walz was caught on camera accusing Republicans of being “fascists and Nazis” who are “stealing” the U.S.:

“I see the pundits on TV — ‘What’s wrong with the Democratic Party?’ What’s wrong is our country is being stolen by fascists and Nazis.”

Gov. Walz refused to apologize for the remark.

https://newsbusters.org/blogs/cnsnews/craig-bannister/2025/10/17/gov-tim-walz-gop-are-nazis-who-say-divisive-things-ice

OBSERVATION - Incitement to violence as the leftists are trying to normalize the characterization of their opponents as a group seen to be inhuman, thus justifying any violence directed against them.

***
Assassination culture.

That is where the Democratic Party is today.

Yet another example comes from Winnebago County, Wisconsin. The OshKosh Democrats put up a booth at the local farmer’s market, and among the things they handed out were bracelets with “Is he dead yet?” printed on them.

(NYPost) Wisconsin Democrats were tossed from a farmers market after a vile volunteer handed out “Is he dead yet?” bracelets — including to a young child — in an apparent reference to President Trump.
The Winnebago County Democratic Party will no longer host a table at the Oshkosh Farmers Market as incendiary rhetoric against Trump and his allies has ramped up since the Republican returned to the White House this year.
The latest instance of menacing words came when a volunteer handed out the hateful bracelet to an 8-year-old child, who then showed it to their mother on Sunday, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported.

https://hotair.com/david-strom/2025/10/17/democratic-party-hands-out-is-he-dead-yet-bracelets-in-wisconsin-n3807956

OBSERVATION - More attempts to normalize violence directed against Trump and his supporters.

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

The U.S. budget deficit edged lower for 2025 as record-setting tariff collections helped offset what also were unprecedented numbers for payments on the spiraling national debt.
The red ink would have been worse had it not been for a massive surge in customs duties and a September surplus of $198 billion that also set a record for the month.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/16/us-budget-deficit-lower-in-2025-tariffs-debt-payments-both-at-records.html

OBSERVATION - We’ve not seen tariffs of this magnitude in our lifetimes, therefore, the impacts are hard to predict. They have put the brakes on the deficit, temporally.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The New York Times reports Head of the U.S. Military’s Southern Command Is Stepping Down

The officer, Adm. Alvin Holsey, is leaving his job as head of the U.S. Southern Command, which oversees all operations in Central and South America, even as the Pentagon has rapidly built up some 10,000 forces in the region in what it says is a major counterdrug and counterterrorism mission.

It was unclear why Admiral Holsey is suddenly departing, less than a year into what is typically a three-year job, and in the midst of the biggest operation in his 37-year career. But one current and one former U.S. official, both of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss personnel matters, said that Admiral Holsey had raised concerns about the mission and the attacks on the alleged drug boats.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-masses-10000-troops-near-venezuela-top-admiral-resigns

OBSERVATION - There are two ongoing theories of the reason behind his stepping down. The first is apparent from the article - he didn’t support the president’s policy in the Caribbean. But there is a second rumor that this general was deep into DEI and apparently was unwilling, again, to follow the new direction of national leadership. For both he was probably given the option to leave the easy way or the hard.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Former special counsel Jack Smith was referred to the Department of Justice office that deals with professional misconduct — as well as for disbarment by two state panels — following “deeply disturbing revelations” that he surreptitiously obtained congressional Republicans’ call logs.

A Friday letter to Attorney General Pam Bondi led by Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) accused former President Joe Biden’s DOJ of having “spied on duly elected members of Congress” and demanding that Smith be investigated by the department’s Office of Professional Responsibility.

The elected officials also accused Smith — whose eventual federal cases against President Trump received materials from the FBI’s “Arctic Frost” probe — of having infringed on the constitutional rights of elected officials and “trampled on this separation of powers principle that underlies our system of government.”

https://nypost.com/2025/10/17/us-news/ex-trump-special-counsel-jack-smith-referred-to-doj-for-probe-on-professional-misconduct-potential-state-disbarment/

OBSERVATION - The “No Kingers” clearly overlook this abuse of govt power. This is just the tip of the iceberg on this scumbag.

China -

Chinese military leadership was thrown into chaos after Chinese President Xi Jinping fired a slew of his top military leaders in an ongoing purge, the Chinese Ministry of Defense announced Thursday.

Xi ousted nine military officials from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Friday after the government accused the officials of “serious violations of party discipline,” according to the Defense Ministry. The purge has reportedly shaken the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to its core as Xi moves to tighten his iron grip on power in the nation and its bureaucracy.

“In accordance with the Party regulations and national laws, the CPC Central Committee decided to expel the nine from the Party and transfer their suspected criminal matters to military procuratorial authorities for further review,” the Chinese Ministry of Defense said in a statement.

https://thelibertydaily.com/peoples-liberation-army-shaken-its-core-as-xi/

OBSERVATION - Xi seems to be nervous about the loyalty of his military in the face of severe economic conditions and his goals of a military build up. One obvious question is whether the shake up provides more competent leadership, or more boot lickers.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 40-50 degree range with rain and rain showers

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight Russia launched 164 strike drones of different types and 3 S-300 missiles, - Ukrainian air forces

Ukraine drones successfully struck the 500 kV Veshkama substation, an essential node linking the Urals and central Russia’s power grids. Explosions were also reported overnight in the Moscow region. Airports in Nizhny Novgorod, Penza, Samara, Tambov, Sochi, Kaluga, Ulyanovsk, and Ufa temporarily halted air traffic.

Ukraine’s General Staff confirms a wave of precision strikes on Russian military and fuel-energy infrastructure in occupied Crimea overnight. Targets hit include an oil depot in Hvardiiske (RVS-2000 tank struck), the “Hvardiysky” Rosrezerv site in Karierne, a fuel depot in Dzhankoi, and a Nebo-U radar in Yevpatoria.

Russian losses per 18/10/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1150 men
+1 tank
+2 AFVs
+41 artillery
+2 MLRS

Zelensky met with Trump yesterday in what BBC News described as a “friendly atmosphere”. As for the Tomahawks, those talks have been paused for now, according to Ukrainian officials.
Trump said he hopes to end the conflict without having to resort to releasing Tomahawks to Ukraine.

***

Analysis and Future Operations —

We’ll have to see how serious putin is to meet with Trump again.

Of note on strikes against major power stations. They contain major transformers that in some cases are one of a kind or have small stockpiles (at best). This is a similar weakness the US power grid has as well. Russia and Ukraine may be able to do some limited work arounds, but that will place stresses on the grids that later strikes can quickly eliminate.

Pakistan / Afghanistan –
Threat Level WARNING - OCT 15, 2025 -

Delegations from Pakistan and Afghanistan’s Taliban government are set to hold talks in the Qatari capital, Doha, after a week of fighting that left dozens dead and hundreds injured.

A 48-hour truce on Wednesday halted the clashes, but fresh fighting has since erupted.

Central to the dispute is Pakistan’s accusation that Afghanistan harbors militants responsible for attacks on its soil, a charge the Taliban government denies.

https://www.dw.com/en/pakistan-and-afghanistan-set-for-crisis-talks-in-doha/a-74408862?maca=en-rss-en-top-1022-rdf

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- More hostage remains returned to Israel

- IAF hits Hezbollah in S Lebanon.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Israel says body of hostage handed over by Hamas to the Red Cross overnight and subsequently transferred to Israel has been identified as Eliyahu Margalit

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

The current question I have is how long will Israel wait for Hamas to start being disarmed before they act? With the sudden reappearance of uniformed Hamas, surveillance activities (both HUMINT and IMINT) will provide a good data base to see where these terrotisivt are now operating out from.

A lot probably depends on Trump’s perception of Hamas’ intransigence against the ceasefire agreement.

Otherwise, I expect just more of the same. IAF hitting Hezbollah targets in S Lebanon as the govt there fails to up hold its end of the deal to disarm and remove them from the region.

Things in Syria seem to be settling down, but that can quickly change.

Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025

Iran says it is no longer bound by the “restrictions” related to its nuclear program — AFP

OBSERVATION - Well, now its official. They never felt bound by any restrictions or agreement in the past.

Lebanon -

Over the past 24 hours, the IDF struck dozens of Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, officials said Saturday.

After residents near the Lebanon border reported Hezbollah operatives approaching the fence, the Galilee Division commander reassured locals while Israel launched major airstrikes and prepared for its biggest divisional drill since the war began.

IDF is intensifying pressure on Hezbollah amid the militant group’s attempts to rebuild its capabilities. Over the past 24 hours, the IDF struck dozens of Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, officials said Saturday.

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/sjgvjwlrgl

***
The Lebanese government promised to disarm Hezbollah by the end of 2025, as part of this agreement Israel included they would target infrastructure related to Hezbollah activities.

OBSERVATION - Well, we’re waiting.

Misc of Note –

I wanted to separate this out here so it wasn’t buried in the CW2 section — as it is important in its on stand.

Forward Observer analysts note the following in association with NK 2.0 today -

According to social media posts and their website, Indivisible and the No Kings protest campaign have chosen YELLOW as their unity color.

A color is an integral part of a Color Revolution because it’s a symbol of national unity against, in many cases, a dictator or autocratic regime. Of the nine classic Color Revolutions since 2000, six have coincided with challenged national elections (on the ground they were stolen), one occurred following the assassination of a prime minister, and two were triggered following the illegal expansion of executive authority.

There are three phases of this current movement:

protest >
resistance >
evolution.

We’re currently in the protest phase and transitioning into the resistance phase, which will feature both protests and nonviolent actions like civil disobedience, occupations, boycotts, and strikes, among other tactics. Protest organizers have previously said they would soon call on protestors and activists to “escalate” their tactics (presumably from protest to resistance) “in the months ahead.” Finally, the revolution phase is the unspoken part of this movement, with revolution remaining an available course of action dependent on the outcome and perceived legality of the 2028 election.

Incorporated into these phases are attacks on key sectors of society -

The Six Pillars describe the underlying foundations that keep a government functioning. They are: Business, Labor, Faith, Education, Civil Service, and Military/Police. Gene Sharp — the godfather of Color Revolutions — explains:
“By themselves, rulers cannot collect taxes, enforce repressive laws and regulations, keep trains running on time, prepare national budgets, direct traffic, manage ports, print money, repair roads, keep markets supplied with food, make steel, build rockets, train the police and army, issue postage stamps or even milk a cow. People provide these services… If people would stop providing these skills, the ruler could not rule.”

In short, a government — a dictator, an autocracy, even a legitimately elected president — depends on these lines of support to function. When a resistance movement convinces elements of these pillars with withdraw their support, the regime collapses.

Think boycotts and other directed protests/actions.

Indivisible and the No Kings protest campaign said they selected YELLOW for their movement because it’s “bright and unmistakable,” and because of yellow’s historical significance. Protestors have worn yellow in Hong Kong, South Korea, and Ukraine to signify their national resistance and opposition to autocracy and invasion.

Protesters at this weekend’s No Kings 2.0 national day of resistance are being asked to wear yellow as a sign of unity and solidarity against the perceived injustices being committed by the Trump administration.

OBSERVATION -
I’m no color expert, but the phrase and organization has been used quite a lot over the past couple decades, focused on Europe and the middle east. I’m doing my homework on this subject so I can see things developing better.

To me the progression listed above depends a lot on the radicalization of the left. Escalation depends a lot on the willingness of the supporters to expose themselves to leverage more pressure on an administration - in this developing case Trump. This radicalization also depends upon the left gain more popular support over the policies of Trump. Right now, nationally Trump is experiencing some of the highest approval levels of any recent president - now surpassing even 0bama. To sway public opinion, the left has continued to blast blatant falsehoods and misrepresentations of Trump policies and actions over its MSM resources and blitzing social media. A prime example is the attempt to switch credit for the ceasefire in Gaza to biden over Trump. Other actions are too numerous to mention, but they’ve been documented many here in FR and TM over the months and years.

This brings about a whole new urgency to target financial support by leftist billionaires going to violent groups like Antifa and allied groups. As that funding chain gets broken up, links further up get disrupted as well and the funding that this early stage of a color revolution hits a speed bump.

What is the path were are on?

Let me double back on the three phases of this current movement: protest > resistance > revolution.

We are well into the “protest” phase, where Indivisible and affiliated leftist groups are trying to gain support and growing ‘peaceful’ protests. They are trying to build legitimacy for passive and active resistance.

Resistance phase is still in its infancy giving that traction is still developing under “protest”. There have been civil disobedience and other directed efforts to sway the “pillars” of the society and embarrass the Trump administration. Their goal is to trigger Trump to over react and give them fuel for further actions. Hence the side discussions of actions against ICE triggering declaration of the Insurrection Act to “prove” the King is a tyrant and is moving to martial law for the whole country. FO analysts suggest that over the next two years this phase my increase - given the midterms and their outcome. At this time looking into the crystal ball, the democrats are in a pickle and stand to loose a substantial number of seats in the House. Outcome from the Schumer shutdown may endanger Senate democrats. The left could seize on the results as illegitimate to bolster their protests. Part of this claim to illegitimacy is revealed in the current redistricting wars that may cause the democrats to lose as many as 30 seats in the House.

The final phase - revolution - would fit the next presidential election cycle. Legitimacy of the MAGA revolution to pass the baton to probably Vance and turmoil generated during the campaign season and beyond would add fire to the revolution.

I think that one must accept what the leftists are saying at face value. The fact that organizers of NK 2.0 have announced a selection of a color - YELLOW - to symbolize their movement is pretty clear that they are operating under a color revolution design and organization. It is important that we recognize this and the actions associated with each stage so that we can track and possibly disrupt their efforts.

Finally, in the light of this understanding of a broader organization of rebellion, the actions of Antifa, marxist moslems and other radical elements make some more sense. They are tied into the goals and efforts of these color revolutionary leaders.

I’m working to understand this better.

Phew - so glad I woke up and there was no king in America today.

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

“No Kings 2.0” Initial Summary

Multiple, though subjective, observations on NK 2.0 suggest that the turnout wasn’t anywhere near what was projected. According to a press release, No Kings says approximately 7 million people participated in yesterday’s marches across the United States, calling it “one of the largest single-day nationwide demonstrations in U.S. history” This is far short of the 10-12 million hoped for.
It was so bad that the left was circulating a 2017 image of a protest in Boston. According to Grok, NBC is using footage from 2017 and labeling it as Live. Observers noted that this 2017 rally was larger than today’s turnout.

In NYC, crowds rapidly broke up after 1 PM local - like the end of the pay for the participants.

Demographics suggested no enlargement of their movement. As observed in 1.0, the majority of the participants were gray haired, white, retiree aged people. NBC Boston had to call it like it is upon observing the “No Kings” crowd...
“An OLDER crowd! A LOT of white hair! You see Q-tips...not a lot of young people!”

Q-tip - now Ive heard it all. I don’t think I have enough gray hair on my head to even come close to making a good Q-tip.

More radical elements were trying to use this event to recruit activists that could be swung to violence at a later date were likely sadly disappointed in their efforts. Aged hippies from the 60s and 70s don’t do well in a scrum.

Though touting the cry that they were defending democracy, speeches and signs throughout the 2700 sites speak a different story. It has already been demonstrated that Soros and other leftist/globalist billionaires provided the funding for this event.

The national organizers of the protests circulated a “Songs and Chants” sheet online, outlining the themes and messages that participants are expected to chant during marches in cities including Washington, D.C., New York City, and Portland.

The chants emphasize opposition to private education, property ownership, and capitalist structures, framing the demonstrations as a demand for “economic justice.”

One of the chants listed reads, “Education is a right. That’s why today we stand and fight. Oh oh oh oh oh, privatization’s got to go.”

The message calls for ending private education and expanding publicly funded systems, a recurring theme in the protests’ materials.

Other chants include, “I went down to the rich man’s house. And I took back what he stole from me. Took back my dignity, took back my humanity,” and “Protect the land and water. What do we want – protect our future.”
The lyrics for the latter chant note that “future” can be substituted with phrases such as “housing for all people” or “public education,” depending on the march’s focus.

https://www.lifezette.com/2025/10/soros-funded-no-kings-protests-demand-end-to-private-schools-nationwide-watch/

This is blatant promotion of socialism - and completely incompatible with democracy or this US constitution (which they also claimed they were protecting).

Overall, there was very little violence associated with the main protests, however, that didn’t stop speakers from advocating violence. The Chicago mayor accused President Donald Trump of wanting a ‘Civil War’ rematch during a No Kings protest.

“Mayor Brandon Johnson ignited the crowd on Saturday by telling liberals to be ‘ready to defend this democracy’ and to be ‘ready to fight fascism.’
‘Are you prepared to destroy authoritarianism once and for all? We’ll let the world hear you, no kings!’ he said in an impassioned speech. “

“He warned Chicago residents to be prepared for a ‘rematch of the Civil War.’
‘The attempt to divide and conquer this nation will not prevail because when the people are united, justice always prevails,’ he said. “

“’If my ancestors, as slaves, can lead the greatest general strike in the history of this country, taking it to the ultra-rich and big corporations, we can do the same today.’”

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15204165/no-kings-protests-national-guard.html

The most aggressive Antifa action associated with NK 2.0 was once again at the Portland ICE facility.

Antifa had posted flyers around Portland with addresses of other federal properties for their comrades to attack. The goal is to strike elsewhere while federal resources are focused on the ICE facility. Democrats have sued to block troops from protecting federal property in the state.

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1979650931814719762?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

Crowd grew so that by 4 PM the protest had shifted to a riot with federal agents using tear gas on rioters who were assaulting agents.

Final note for today. 2.0 lacked the motivation organizers were hoping for, growing a movement that could politically move the needle towards the left’s favor. In reality, it looks like protest fatigue is settling in. First the Indivisible protests, then NK 1.0 now NK 2.0 - all within a year.

***
The terror Antifa propaganda site “It’s Going Down” has officially announced it will be shutting down.

This coincides with the Trump administration’s crackdown on organized crime within Antifa networks. Over the years, “It’s Going Down” has posted numerous claims of responsibility for domestic terrorist attacks, including an attempt by an Antifa militant to derail a train, which led to the website being mentioned in a federal criminal complaint. The website has also posted manuals on carrying out crimes and evading detection for terrorist attacks.

OBSERVATIONS - Designation as a terrorist organization is causing Antifa et al to go to ground. The internet never forgets.

POLITICAL FRONT –

I expect the leftists will try to leverage the NK 2.0 to political advantage on today’s talk shows. However the themes and claims echoed there have long been put down and is nothing fresh, so expect more regurgitation of spoiled talking points.

Mix in more about the govt shutdown. Some have thought Schumer is going to relent on the CR after the protest. Will he or won’t he? May get some better feeling today.

TRUMP Watch –

Trump and other agencies have officially signed on to bluesky, the uber leftist answer to “X” and have been raising a storm of trolling. Immensely funny memes and comments that instantly caused the liberal heads to explode. As much as I hold AI off at arms length, Trump’s crew masterfully uses it for video clips nailing the democrats.

Illegal Immigration –

Federal agents just wrapped up a major sweep in Massachusetts, hauling in over 1,400 illegal aliens who had no business being on American streets. Operation Patriot 2.0, running from early September through the end of the month, zeroed in on the worst offenders hiding out in sanctuary strongholds like Boston. Agents nabbed murderers, rapists, child predators, drug dealers, and hardened gangbangers from outfits like MS-13 and Tren de Aragua.

The tally speaks for itself: 1,406 arrests, with more than 600 carrying rap sheets loaded with violent crimes. Six were confirmed members of transnational gangs, and others were tight associates. Then there are the 277 who thumbed their noses at deportation orders, plus three flagged as known or suspected terrorists. Several came with Interpol Red Notices or warrants from their home countries for serious felonies.

https://discern.tv/massive-number-of-illegal-alien-murderers-rapists-and-gang-members-arrested-by-ice-in-boston/

OBSERVATION - Boston’s mayor resisted (and continues to do so) ICE efforts in Boston. Out of those numbers were uncounted self deportations or departures from the Boston area.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 40-50 degree range with rain and rain showers

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight Russia launched 62 strike drones, 40 shot down or taken out by EW(?) - Ukrainian air forces

Ukrainian attack drones just struck Russia’s Novokuibyshevsk oil refinery, reportedly setting part of the complex ablaze. The fire can be seen from the nearby city of Samara.

Ukraine drones also hit the Orenburg gas processing plant

Analysis and Future Operations —

Pretty standard day of fighting. With the continued low drone count, I expect the nest Russian blitz to be very soon.

Some OSINT observers and analysts are suggesting that the Russian effort in the Pokrovsk has cost Russian dearly. They note that it has pushed causalities back into the 35 - 42 K range / month while only being able to backfill 30 - 32K / month.

Europe / NATO General –

Europol and Latvian law enforcement dismantled five servers and seized 1,200 SIM box devices along with 40,000 active SIM cards

The criminal network was connected to more than 1,700 cyber fraud cases in Austria and 1,500 in Latvia, resulting in losses of several million euros - including €4.5 million in Austria and €420,000 in Latvia

OBSERVATION - This is becoming a grave concern. Two similar facilities were found in the US over the past few months. This suggests that there are many more floating around out there.

Pakistan / Afghanistan –
Threat Level WARNING - OCT 15, 2025 -

Ceasefire appears to be holding.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Hamas carried out multiple attacks across the “Yellow” line on IDF elements

- Netanyahu in talks with council on broader response to those attacks

- Remains of two more hostages released by Hamas.

- Hamas totally redefines the ceasefire agreement.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

US State Dep.: “The US has informed the guarantor nations of the Gaza peace agreement of credible reports indicating an imminent ceasefire violation by Hamas against the people of Gaza” This planned attack against Palestinian civilians would constitute a direct and grave violation of the ceasefire agreement and undermine the significant progress achieved through mediation efforts. The guarantors demand Hamas uphold its obligations under the ceasefire terms.

Should Hamas proceed with this attack, measures will be taken to protect the people of Gaza and preserve the integrity of the ceasefire.

The United States and the other guarantors remain resolute in our commitment to ensuring the safety of civilians, maintaining calm on the ground, and advancing peace and prosperity for the people of Gaza and the region as a whole.

Hamas: We call on the US administration to stop repeating the misleading narrative and to address its repeated violations of the ceasefire agreement, most notably its support for these groups and the provision of safe havens for them within the areas under its control.

***

The Israeli military said on Sunday that Hamas terrorists have carried out “multiple attacks” against Israeli forces beyond the “yellow line” buffer zone, including a rocket-propelled grenade and sniper fire, calling it a “blatant violation” of the ceasefire.

The IDF has confirmed two terrorists killed in Jabalia and believes at least one of the attacks was an attempted kidnapping of soldiers. Reports also indicate injuries among Israeli troops.

Israeli aircraft are now hitting terror targets in the Rafah area.

Prime Minister Netanyahu is holding a situation assessment following the serious incident this morning in Rafah.

Discussions are focused on resuming airstrikes and possibly scaling back aid, pending coordination with Trump.

***
Hamas leader Mohammad Nazzal in Qatar:
“Hamas will never surrender its weapons. This is non-negotiable.…We will gain either victory or martyrdom.”

“Hamas will not disarm. We will maintain control over Gaza’s security. This ceasefire is only a temporary ‘hudna’, a pause to rebuild our strength and regain some breathing room.”

***
Hamas transferred the bodies of two hostages to Israel

Netanyahu’s office: The Rafah crossing will not open until Hamas fulfills its commitments to return the bodies of the kidnapped soldiers

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

The situation in southern Gaza is rapidly deteriorating. The attack overnight was coordinated and serious. Trump is already upset over Hamas killing Gazan civilians and their refusal to adhere to the signed peace agreement. With this act, he may allow Netanyahu to unleash the dogs once again. Trump may also urge Israeli restraint, instead pressuring Qatar to put Mohammad Nazzal in a head lock and force them back into line from their end. I don’t expect much from Qatar, they have been big Hamas supporters for so long. But if Qatar fails to reign in Hamas at this stage, their credibility will be further shot to pieces.

Until coordinator between Netanyahu and Trump is completed, I expect Israel to target Hamas elements in the Rafah area in a weapon’s free manner. Spreading it to other parts of Gaze could be next. This time around it will be substantially different since the living hostages have been returned to safety and are no longer an operational deterrent to the IDF.

Many have recognized the Hamas attempt at “hudna” in this fight. Problem is the agreement they signed would prevent it, were it to be followed.

What did Hama gain with their actions the past couple of weeks. Well, a limited time and breather space to reorganize and regroup. Shift of refugees back into N Gaza may complicate things, but not to the extent they might have wanted. Hamas doesn’t have the support it had and with this attack is beginning to burn bridges with Egypt, Qatar and Turkey - all of which signed on as guarantors of the peace. Hamas is flipping them the bird.

Syria -

Netanyahu:
“We will remain on Mount Hermon and in the areas we entered in Syria.”
“We will not allow attacks on the Druze in Syria.”
“The agreement will be about the demilitarization of southern Syria.”

OBSERVATION - Nothing really new here, but a continued, clear statement of Israeli goals and policy. A demilitarized S Syria keeps the jihadist radicals that support the regime in Damascus at bay. The result being a more peaceful border area for Israel.

Globalism / Great Reset –

The World Health Organization has introduced a major overhaul of its global monitoring network, unveiling an AI-powered platform that tracks online conversations and media activity in real time.

Known as Epidemic Intelligence from Open Sources 2.0 (EIOS), the system is being presented as a new step in “pandemic preparedness,” but its reach extends well beyond disease surveillance.

The upgrade is part of a growing merger between health monitoring, digital tracking, and centralized information control.

While this is described as a tool for early warning, it effectively allows a global health authority to observe the world’s digital conversations under the banner of safety.

https://reclaimthenet.org/who-eios-ai-surveillance-public-health-monitoring

OBSERVATION - AI infrastructure being developed to allow the globalists to not only monitor, but to be able to eventually control people and narrative when the next “crisis” hits. This all goes hand in glove with the desire for a digital ID that is tied into credit and monetary controls.

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

CRITICAL DATE - Nov 1, 2025, EBT and SNAP benefits are gone due to govt shutdown.

MORE NK 2.0 FALLOUT

Crowing by the NK leadership was pretty muted yesterday. The 7 million claim for Saturday is weak compared to the estimated five million people participated in the June 14 event. Observers note that the turnout wasn’t dominated by unhinged young leftists or gender-confused woke warriors, but rather by white baby-boomer liberals (Q-tips).

In traditional overseas regime-change operations, the CIA and State Department typically rely on young folks for color revolutions against ‘Kings’. Yet in the Democratic Party’s regime change operation to sway sentiment polls and ignite nationwide protests/riots. As I noted yesterday, Saturday was to be a step in the development of a much larger color revolution in the US.

The left (more than 200 left-wing groups, from the ACLU and Antifa to Indivisible, have helped organize the events ) burned through tens of millions of dollars via their NGO network to support protests this weekend, and apparently got very little for their money.

***
Clashes broke out in downtown Los Angeles on Saturday as “No Kings” protesters refused to disperse after repeated orders from law enforcement, leading to at least one arrest.

The demonstration was part of nationwide “No Kings” protests aimed at opposing President Donald Trump and his administration’s policies. While the event began peacefully, tensions escalated when some protesters stayed in the streets after police declared an unlawful assembly.

Los Angeles police formed a skirmish line and issued dispersal orders, warning protesters they would be arrested if they did not leave. According to ABC 7, at least one person was taken into custody as officers in riot gear on horseback moved in near the federal building downtown to push the crowd back.

Police said nearly 100 agitators marched toward Aliso and Alameda streets, with some using lasers and flashlights against officers and even targeting an LAPD pilot.

https://thepostmillennial.com/la-no-kings-protest-turns-into-riot-at-least-one-arrested-as-violent-crowd-refuses-to-disperse#google_vignette

***
Social media was flooded with interviews with participants of NK 2.0. A large number of them were advocating more assassinations of Trump and associated staff.

At separate “No Kings” event in Chicago, a man reportedly urged attendees to shoot U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents.
“You gotta grab a gun, we gotta turn around the guns on this fascist system. These ICE agents gotta get shot and wiped out,” the man, who stood in front of a banner for the Progressive Labor Party, apparently said. “The same machinery that’s on full display right there has to get wiped out.”

Another “No Kings” protester in Chicago seemingly made a “neck shot” gesture after passing a TPUSA counter protestors. She was later identified as a school teacher - with action being taken.

OVERALL OBSERVATIONS - The NK leadership may likely need to go back to the drawing board to try to generate ways to motivate protestor turnout. Not mentioned above was the abundance of paid protestors who received between $200-$500 to show up. The current political environment shows the tone deafness of the left. The general population is happy with the Trump actions on illegals, the economy and making our country safer. They are finding it gather traction in that environment.

Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
- Iran could activate cells in the US.

***

The FBI is investigating after the Secret Service found a suspicious hunting stand with a direct line of sight to where President Trump exits Air Force One at Palm Beach International Airport - FOX News

OBSERVATION - Doubt that this is a coincidence, but a deliberate placement for an opportunity to take another shot at Trump at a future date. Indicates a substantial intel effort to identify recurring patterns in Trump’s travels and try to covertly establish shooting positions.

POLITICAL FRONT –

As noted above, NK 2.0 was pretty much a flop. Talking heads Sunday didn’t seem to pressure republicans on the point.

Now back to the govt shutdown. Among other looming factors, a big one is on the horizon and that is the loss of EBT and SNAP for low income types. Should the dems continue to block the CR, they may unleash a broad wave of civil unrest as an unintended consequence. I think Schumer et al didn’t think the republicans would remain monolithic against the democrat ‘compromise’.

TRUMP Watch –

Leftists heads were exploding over the memes put out with Trump as king.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

Putin has reportedly hinted he’s willing to return occupied parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson to Ukraine, in exchange for full Russian control over Donetsk, according to The Washington Post. He told Trump this would be a condition for ending the war. The report also says Trump’s envoy, Witkoff, pressured the Ukrainian side to accept this deal.

Trump denies ever telling Zelensky to give up Donbas. “I never discussed that,” he said, adding the U.S. believes both sides should freeze the war along current front lines.

OBSERVATION - If Witcoff thinks that Russian speaking presence in Donbas is justification for turn over to Russia - he better pull his head out of his you know what. Russian control of the state effectively penetrates and deeply so, Ukraine’s eastern defensive system and move the Russia front dangerously close to Kyiv and other major Ukrainian towns. There is no guarantee that Russia wont violate any agreement and launch a new attack at a later date, after putin has been able to reconstruct the Russia army.

Personnel Issues –

Some OSINT analysts suggest that Russian casualties have recently been underestimated, especially in the Pokrovsk front. Recent numbers believed to be as high as 50K over the past month or so due largely to the focused efforts in that sector.

Also, observations that Russia is losing the ability to get replacements from their population and are increasingly looking to other countries to fill the gap in manning the war effort.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 40-50 degree range with rain and rain showers

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight on October 20, Russia launched 3 Iskander-M ballistic missiles and 60 attack drones, including around 40 Shaheds, from occupied Crimea and Russian territory. Ukrainian air defenses, jets, SAMs, EW units, and mobile fire teams, intercepted or jammed 38 drones. However, 3 missiles and 20 drones struck 12 locations.

Russian losses per 20/10/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff.

+890 men
+2 tanks
+45 artillery
+1 AD system

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Lenino(Molodetske) of Donetsk region of Ukraine

Ukrainian military had liquidated Russian saboteur group that infiltrated area of railway station in Pokrovsk

Analysis and Future Operations —

Seemingly minor ebb in the flow of battle, both in the air and on the ground. Noting the weather forecast, this could be due in part to deteriorating conditions.

Noting an interesting evolution in Ukrainian defense against Shahed’s - the development and deployment of kinetic kill drones. These cheap (about $1000 ea) are designed to take down drones via impact. Cost benefit being a big savings over more expensive missiles and allowing those missiles to be used to protect more critical areas.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Israel reopened access for aid to Gaza

- IAF airstrikes hit underground targets avoided earlier over concerns of the presence of hostages

——— GENERAL ——————————-

President Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One that the U.S. thinks rogue Hamas militants might be behind the shooting in Rafah on Sunday. “We think maybe the leadership isn’t involved in that, that it’s some rebels within. It’s going to be handled toughly, but properly”

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Following yesterday’s Hamas attack on IDF, aircraft struck with vengeance.

Summary of the wave of attacks in the Gaza Strip: Dozens of fighter jets attacked about 83 Hamas targets (using approximately 120 munitions), including terror infrastructures and many tunnels, with an emphasis on Rafah and a significant infrastructure in Nuseirat.

Several targeted eliminations by drones were carried out in the central and northern Gaza Strip - dozens of terrorists were successfully killed.

Netanyahu decided to close all crossings to the Gaza Strip and halt the delivery of humanitarian aid in response to Hamas’ violation of the ceasefire. The closure was later lifted

The Air Force attacked a number of terrorists who posed a danger to forces east of Khan Yunis this morning.

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

Israeli forces launch a campaign of raids and arrests in the village of Al-Mughayyir, northeast of Ramallah

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Probably with Trump’s urging, Israel has scaled back its retaliatory strikes against Hamas. A very key observation is the reports that Israel hit major underground bases they avoided during previous fighting because of the presence of living hostages. Those hostages are no longer there and I’ll bet my bars that those hostages provided substantial info on locations of those bases to Israeli Intel. As I’ve said before, Israel will be more lethal towards these underground sites now that the living hostages are safe.

Trump’s comments that this was an act of rogue Hamas elements has the taste of PR to it. Hamas leadership has clearly stated they will not lay down their arms and ceasefire attacks like this are a common event among their group. Perhaps Trump is offering a face saving cover to Hamas to bring them back on line.

The next couple of days will decide if Hamas is going to pull back from the brink or go full metal jihad again. Israel has already shown they are more than ready to rain death on Hamas.

Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced Sunday that the United States conducted a strike against a seventh boat Friday as the Trump administration ramps up its war on alleged drug smuggling.

Central / South America General-

It looks like Bolivia is done with socialism. For the first time since 2005, the country has officially elected a candidate who is not a part of Evo Morales’ Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party. This comes as Bolivia faces a serious economic crisis — something that seems to go hand-in-hand with years of socialism.

OBSERVATION - More shifting to the right in central/south america. This win also puts a barrier to continued push by China, Russia, and Iran into the region.

Colombia -

President Trump announced, “AS OF TODAY, THESE PAYMENTS, OR ANY OTHER FORM OF PAYMENT OR SUBSIDIES, WILL NO LONGER BE MADE TO COLOMBIA,” citing President Gustavo Petro’s encouragement of massive drug production that ends up in the U.S.

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