Posted on 01/01/2025 6:44:53 AM PST by Godzilla
Welcome to Threat Matrix 2025
For historical reference TM2024 link is
https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4207046/posts?q=1&;page=1#1
Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 24th year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.
2024 has been “historic”: - The landslide election of Trump back into the Whitehouse, and the collapse of the massive lawfare effort against him. - Assassination attempts on Trump - Stunning defeat of Hamas and Hezbollah by Israel - Israel directly hits Iran after Iranian missile strikes, eliminating Iranian missile production capabilities for several years as well as destroying most of its air defense assets. - The almost overnight overthrow of Syria’s Assad and the associated serious losses to Russia and Iran/Hezbollah
I expect 2025 to be even worse as we are facing: - Massive political infighting as the Swamp tries to thwart the Trump agenda - Potential for civil unrest and violence driven by the communist left and Antifa affiliated elements. - Potential violence as Trump implements is deportation plan for millions of illegals. - The potential for a serious and deep recession - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - Combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Russian nuclear threats - China making a move on Taiwan - Israel and Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems.
It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.
For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.
How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.
Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.
My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose – even more so following 2022.
So buckle up for the ride. This is an open thread that I want to continue as a clearing house of tidbits of intelligence contributed by the FR community so that we are all aware of what’s happening and what the impacts of those events will be. Knowledge is power
Means and authority? That's nice.
Do you have the will?
Globalism / Great Reset –
Joint Statement by Secretary of State Rubio, Secretary of Energy Wright, and Secretary of Transportation Duffy-
President Trump has made it clear that the United States will not accept any international environmental agreement that unduly or unfairly burdens the United States or harms the interests of the American people. Next week, members of the IMO will vote on the adoption of a so-called NZF aimed at reducing global carbon dioxide gas emissions from the international shipping sector. This will be the first time that a UN organization levies a global carbon tax on the world.
The Administration unequivocally rejects this proposal before the IMO and will not tolerate any action that increases costs for our citizens, energy providers, shipping companies and their customers, or tourists. The economic impacts from this measure could be disastrous, with some estimates forecasting global shipping costs increasing as much as 10% or more. We ask you to join us in rejecting adoption of the NZF at the October meeting and to work together on our collective economic and energy security.
The NZF proposal poses significant risks to the global economy and subjects not just Americans, but all IMO member states to an unsanctioned global tax regime that levies punitive and regressive financial penalties, which could be avoided. The United States is considering the following actions against nations that support this global carbon tax on American consumers:
- Pursuing investigations and considering potential regulations to combat anti-competitive practices from certain flagged countries and potential blocking vessels registered in those countries from U.S. ports;
- Imposing visa restrictions including an increase in fees and processing, mandatory re-interview requirements and/or revisions of quotas for C-1/D maritime crew member visas;
- Imposing commercial penalties stemming from U.S. government contracts including new commercial ships, liquified natural gas terminals and infrastructure, and/or other financial penalties on ships flagged under nations in favor of the NZF;
- Imposing additional port fees on ships owned, operated, or flagged by countries supporting the framework; and
- Evaluating sanctions on officials sponsoring activist-driven climate policies that would burden American consumers, among other measures under consideration.
The United States will be moving to levy these remedies against nations that sponsor this European-led neocolonial export of global climate regulations. We will fight hard to protect our economic interests by imposing costs on countries if they support the NZF. Our fellow IMO members should be on notice.
OBSERVATION - This carbon tax by the UN has been in the works for a while and the US told them to pound sand.
CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025
Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
UPCOMING -
- “No Kings 2.0”, 18 October 2025
***
The American Federation of Government Employees (AFGE) urged furloughed federal workers to join the 18 October No Kings 2.0 demonstrations. AFGE said the protest movement has taken on more urgency with the Trump administration’s “authoritarian powergrab” during the federal government shutdown.
***
(FO) Anarchist collective Crimethinc published a call to action for anarchist affinity groups to organize anti-authoritarian blocs for the No Kings 2.0 demonstrations on 18 October. The anti-authoritarian blocs would hold post demonstration events to recruit demonstrators and teach direct action planning.
FO OBSERVATIONS (I concur)
The far left has been unable to spur mass mobilization since the 2020 election. Far left organizers likely see No Kings 2.0 as a potential catalyst for public mass mobilization and a recruiting nexus for direct actions.
***
CHICAGO -
An 8-foot security fence surrounding the Broadview, Illinois Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) processing facility has been removed at the order of a U.S. District Court judge.
Judge Lashonda Hunt ordered the removal of the security fence last Friday, claiming that the temporary fence was on municipal land without permission and allegedly violated local ordinances by blocking emergency vehicles.
Hunt had ruled that the fence violated safety code because the gate was 16 feet wide, rather than the 20-foot requirement adopted by the village under the International Fire Code.
The judge’s order stated: “DHS’s Beach Street gate creates a quasi-federal zone where the Village’s ability to respond to emergencies is hindered and only allows it to provide lifesaving services at the whims and fancies of the Federal Defendants.”
The timing of the removal of the fence has raised concerns that there will be one less barrier between ICE agents and protesters during this coming weekend’s large-scale “no kings day” protests scheduled across the nation.
RELATED -
Chicago that the south side of the ICE Broadview facility has been declared a “no protest zone” - after the FENCE was forced to be taken down by a judge.
“The demonstrators are now restricted to a small zone on the northeast side, and the protestors don’t like it!”
Activist group the Coalition Against Broadview ICE Facility said it will not obey the new order, and will continue demonstrating in previous protest zones.
OBSERVATION - Being appealed, but it is being forced down for now, leaving the facility dangerously exposed. This is a new tactic the left is using via lawfare to limit ICE - enforcement of local laws and regulations.
The city of Broadview has put in new limits on where free speech areas are allowed, no longer permitting protests where the fencing has been removed. However, since when have Antifa elements bothered to follow the law.
Should Antifa renew an attack on this side of the facility, I expect that the govt will reinstall the fence, demonstrating that the local police are incapable of backing up the judge’s order or maintain security. It could also trigger deployment of the TX NG contrary to another judge’s order to secure the facility, citing real security concerns that override the judgement.
***
(FO) Chicago, IL area anarchists vandalized three U-Haul and Budget Rental trucks in an “attack back,” retaliation for federal agents using those brands’ rental trucks during a major 2 October raid on a Chicago apartment complex. The anarchists urged activists and affinity groups to scout out U-Haul and Budget Rental trucks to vandalize.
***
BOSTON -
(FO) Boston, MA prosecutors charged 13 demonstrators with “promotion of anarchy,” after a 7 October pro-Palestine rally that turned violent. Officials said the “promotion of anarchy” charges were brought after police found social media advertisements for the event that included violent imagery.
***
NATIONAL -
Mother Jones recently published an article that stated that “soft secession” could lay the groundwork for “a new confederacy”…
“With Trump provocatively sending troops into blue cities, and using recision and the shutdown to claw back congressionally appropriated funds from blue states, it’s time to turn the tables on him. Soft secession, powered by the presidential ambitions of multiple blue-state governors, could, should it come to that, be the proving ground of a new confederacy. Hopefully the threat of CalExit or a new Union will be enough. But that extreme measures might be necessary to ensure that American democracy shall not perish from the Earth is becoming more self-evident with every passing day.”
OBSERVATION - Leftists say what they intend to do and those of us on the right seem immune to accept those threats as being real. Talk of a national divorce grew out of the 0bama days as red areas came under increasing oppression from blue sectors of the country. This was revealed in the now classical blue/urban versus red/rural standoff. Those dynamics have shifted to some degree with some red gains, however, the sentiment has changed little, nor have some of the potential dynamics.
Kalifornia, for example, is ruled by the leftists concentrated in the states large cities - SF Bay, Sacramento, LA, etc. Leave the city limits, the color quickly flips to red. On a land basis, nearly 3/4 of Kalifornia is red. Should the left in Kaliforina attempt to separate, there will likely be an internal schism as well, as the red counties will refuse to follow that leadership. There was an effort by those red areas to separate into a new state, not sure what the status of that movement currently is. But I’m confident that should kalifornia try to leave the union, it will have trouble within its borders. Should the S hit the fan big time, the blue urban areas will struggle keeping supplied as it would be easy for the red areas to enforce a blockade.
Now multiple this scenario across other “blue” states and things would get ugly fast.
Toss in the ascendant moslem movement/concentration for spice. . . . .
Are things actually moving in this direction? Recent events indicated that this movement has started in Kalifornia and Illinois in particular. Smaller levels in Chicago and Seattle.
***
Should the democrats regain power at the national level, one can expect the full militarization of the police/federal govt to lock up those who voted for Trump and followed his directives -
“The Illinois Governor is now threatening to throw ICE and other federal agents in PRISON.”
The massive Stasi actions under biden will pale under the hand of a democrat president and congress - you can bet your ammo box on it.
***
A new poll shows that the majority of voters in America support President Donald Trump’s deployment of the National Guard to defend Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) facilities across the United States.
A poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports from October 7 to October 9 shows that 52 percent of likely U.S. voters support Trump’s deployment of the National Guard to defend ICE facilities, which have faced repeated attacks by left-wing protesters over the past several months. The 52 percent of voters who support Trump’s deployment of the National Guard includes 39 percent of likely U.S. voters who strongly support the deployment of National Guard troops to defend ICE facilities.
***
There is growing talk from both sides about Trump looking to implement the Insurrection Act to circumvent the current round of activist judges barring activation of NG for protection of govt facilities, namely ICE and DHS in hot bed cities.
IMHO, such action by Trump would be waaaaaay to early and without substantial justification at this stage. It is better to slog thru the appeals to these judges and (re)establish his authority as CinC than to make a major jump. What would trigger that jump? Again IMHO would be mass violence on the level seen in the 2020 Floyd /BLM riots. Anything less could easily be spun as a mad power grab the “See I told you so” elements of the left.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Senate Majority Leader John Thune is looking to back Democrats into a corner by bringing a full-year Pentagon funding bill to the Senate floor on Thursday.
In doing so, Thune aims to force Democrats to take action — and perhaps move toward an end to Washington’s weeks of paralysis — as a government shutdown stretches into its third week with no end in sight.
Thune’s move marks a deliberate escalation by Senate Republicans, who hope to break the stalemate by daring Democrats to vote against military funding.
The Senate democrats have now rejected the House-passed stopgap nine times, including once on Wednesday, with another vote expected Thursday.
https://www.newsmax.com/us/shutdown-thune-democrats/2025/10/15/id/1230545/
OBSERVATION - Polls showing that public opinion is continuing to shift against the democrats on the shut down. This is a brilliant move, preserve national defense and strip a debate point from the dems at the same time.
***
Panic is worsening among Democrats after it sinks in just how many Republican House seats will be picked up through redistricting by 2026
“Democrats could lose 19 SEATS! This is a HUGE amount!”
“Florida could be a gold mine! [...] EVERYTHING left over is an advantage to the Republicans!”
“The Supreme Court is CONSIDERING the end of the Voting Rights Act!”
https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1978137851637182750
OBSERVATION - Democrats have over the years over jerry rigged the congressional districts to gain their advantage. This season’s redistricting has come with republicans in power in many of these states and courts not interfering as they have in the past. Big ticket item is the growing likelihood that the USSC will eliminate special districts based solely on race. Look to discussions from yesterday’s hearing. The shockwaves will be huge and nothing Kalifornia can do will stop the surge.
MORE RELATED -
Political analysts are saying that if the USSC overturns the sections of the Voting Rights Act,, it could lead to the redrawing of congressional districts across the south that, by some estimates, could flip more than a dozen seats from Democratic to Republican.
Do the math - redistricting alone a +19, add +12 from the USSC decision to a huge +31 pickup for the republicans.
***
In another question, the Rasmussen Reports poll asked U.S. voters, “Do you agree or disagree with this statement: ‘We have seen, over the last nine months, an ongoing legal insurrection in which district court judges … have issued rulings that are flagrantly unlawful and unconstitutional’?” In response, 56 percent of likely U.S. voters agreed with the statement, while 31 percent of likely U.S. voters disagreed with the statement.
OBSERVATION - More public opinion running against the MSM/democrat narrative.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
The US has issued an ultimatum to Putin: “It’s time to end the war and come to the peace table — or the U.S. War Department stands ready to do our part in ways that only the United States can do,” said US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth.
https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1978488628339974332
OBSERVATION - More likely along the lines of providing military systems like the Tomahawk and intel to enhance Ukraine deep strikes against strategic targets. The only other action I can see is actual intercept and seizure of Russian ‘black fleet’ ships under sanctions.
Economic Impact –
Some Indian refiners to move away from Russian oil, sources say.
OBSERVATION - Some related rumblings suggest that Trump tariffs are squeezing Indian oil refiners and forcing them to seek other sources. If they stop buying Russian oil, the Russian economy will take another serous hit.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 30-50 degree range with widely scattered showers
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The Ukrainian Air Force reports on the overnight drone/missile attack.
Shot down:
283/320 Shahed type drones
0/2 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles
0/26 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles
0/2 Iskander-K cruise missiles
5/7 Kh-59 cruise missiles
This includes 18 missiles that were lost by location
Russia launched drone and missile strikes hit the DTEK Naftogaz energy infrastructure. As a result, gas production facilities in Poltava region were forced to halt operations, the company reported.
Ukraine drones attacked an oil refinery in Kstovo of Nizhniy Novgorod region.
Ukraine also struck the Saratov Oil Refinery in the Saratov
Region. Saratov Oil Refinery is one of Russia’s oldest, processing 4.8 million tons of crude annually as of 2023 and supplying the Russian military.
In Volgograd region, the 500 kV “Balashovskaya” substation near Uryupinsk was hit overnight by Ukrainian drones according to Russian sources. The substation plays a key role in transferring electricity from the Volzhskaya hydroelectric plant to central Russia. Local officials confirmed the strike and resulting fire.
Russian losses per 16/10/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1080 men
+2 tanks
+9 AFVs
+42 artillery
Russian sources confirm the de-facto loss of Oleksiivka, Sumy region. Ukrainian forces are already in the center and control the southern part. Attempts to bring in Russian reserves are failing, with most units taking heavy losses before reaching the front. Russian channels admit Oleksiivka will have to be abandoned.
NOTE - This is one of the Russian penetrations from the past summer that failed to have follow on forces available to secure the flanks.
Analysis and Future Operations —
Russia ramping up for another large drone/missile strike within the next couple days. Ukraine power and oil/gas will be largely targeted as like last year.
Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to hammer Russian petro industry and power. It seems Russia is unable to provide protection for these refineries and other related sites, like oil pumping stations. Successive hits are making these big producers go off line for at least months if not longer as the parts necessary to replace are scarce and costly.
On the ground, moderately heavy fighting is indicated. Ukraine apparently is continuing to have success pinching off Russian penetrations from the summer, and inflicting heavy losses on Russian forces, both in manpower and equipment.
Recent reports of increased company and battalion sized “armor” attacks could be considered to be probing / recon in force efforts ahead of the anticipated Russian winter offensive. So far it appears that each was decimated with heavy losses.
The “winter offensive” seems to be stalling out in execution, unless waiting for the ground to freeze following the upcoming mud season. The increased conscription call up may also be delaying it, as the Russian forces need more bodies to fill out their units. It may also be stalling out due to logistical impacts, currently potential fuel shortages, and interdiction of key rail roads. With the touted Russian Summer/Fall offensive turning out to largely be a nothing burger, the stakes are higher to successfully initiate a winter campaign. Russia has lost a lot of the initiative it was able to generate with the many limited penetrations of Ukraine lines. Now that has switched as Ukraine is eliminating these penetrations, and Russia is losing forces trying to retain them. The infiltration tactics Russia used for these limited breakthroughs are being countered by Ukraine defenses, making it harder to successfully conduct more such attacks.
Poland –
A new drone incident disrupted NATO’s Falcon Autumn drills in Poland, Rzeczpospolita reports. Belarusian-plated cars were spotted near a Dutch camp site, followed by unidentified drones that jammed communications. The exercise was restructured, and Dutch EW systems were flown in. Commanders called it a “valuable lesson” in operating under electronic threat.
Europe / NATO General –
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz called for stronger European military power, stating “only strength preserves peace.” He announced a national plan to counter Russia’s hybrid warfare and reaffirmed full support for Ukraine. Merz proposed using frozen Russian assets to give Ukraine €140B in interest-free military loans.
***
Poland’s Foreign Minister warned European leaders in London yesterday that Europe needs to be preparing for Russia to conduct strikes deep into Europe. NATO Secretary-General Rutte said that NATO and the EU are working together to set up a “drone wall.” German Defense Minister Pistorius announced an $11 billion investment into European drone defense to take the lead on the project.
Pakistan / Afghanistan –
Threat Level WARNING - OCT 15, 2025 -
The Pakistani Air Force struck Kabul and Kandahar , Afghanistan overnight.
The Pakistani government and Afghanistan’s ruling Taliban on Wednesday agreed to a temporary 48-hour ceasefire after fresh clashes erupted this week and saw more than a dozen civilians and troops killed.
OBSERVATION - The Taliban have no effective air force or air defenses. Pakistan can penetrate Afghan air space at their pleasure. On the ground, Taliban may have some edge if they can effectively coordinate their actions with coreligionists in Pakistan. At present , I don’t see either country seeking territorial gains, and a war of attrition is being set up.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Two more bodies of dead hostages turned over to Israel.
- More pressure on Hamas to adhere to the full agreement.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Today marks one year since the death of the monster Sinwar. He was the leader of Hamas and mastermind of the Oct 7 massacres.
***
Israeli Defense Minister ordered the IDF to prepare a plan to defeat Hamas in Gaza if fighting resumes. If Hamas rejects the Trump plan (return hostages, disarm, etc.), Israel, with US coordination, will resume operations to destroy tunnels and terror infrastructure.
Trump to CNN: I will consider allowing Netanyahu to return to fight in Gaza if Hamas refuses to fulfill its part of the deal - “As soon as I say the word”
***
Israeli Radio, citing an official, said: Israel does not intend to begin the second phase of the agreement before the bodies of all the kidnapped soldiers are returned.
Hamas says 19 hostage bodies are unaccounted for - and will remain so, in the absence of large-scale and foreign-assisted forensic excavation
***
Based on multiple Gaza-based accounts, once the crossings open, we may see as many as 500,000 Gazans flood out of the Strip.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Israeli army updates: The Houthis in Yemen stopped launching drones and ballistic missiles at Israel with the start of the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip
The Houthi Chief of Staff targeted by the IDF has been confirmed eliminated. The Houthis only acknowledged it now — the strike occurred on August 28.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Delays in repatriating remains of hostages and refusal of Hamas to disarm and step down continue to lead the general situation. There are legitimate difficulties getting to some of the buried bodies, but Hamas had over a week to get it accomplished in preparation for the ceasefire.
Israeli / US actions against Hamas’ refusal to disarm and step aside from rulership of Gaza are likely weeks away. IIRC, the policing action falls on Egypt, Turkey and Qatar first to get this accomplished. However, only a fool will accept that Hamas will do this willingly.
Hamas is also continuing its campaign of terror by executing Gazas suspected of being favorable to Israel as well as fighting local clans for control.
If the rumors are correct, there will be a new refugee crisis should Egypt forcefully prevent these 500,000 Gazans from fleeing the war torn area. Historically, these so called ‘palestinians’ have been like locust to surrounding arab countries, causing trouble in Egypt, then Jordan and Lebanon.
Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025
Trump: “I received important intelligence indicating that Iran is once again restoring its nuclear capabilities - the US and Israel are closely monitoring these actions. If Iran continues on the path to building an atomic bomb, we will attack Iran again. Iran told us that it is acting to produce civilian, not military, nuclear material but our eyes are still on them.”
OBSERVATION - Rhetoric before action. Key is that Iran has to rebuild its uranium concentration operations to the extent necessary to get to the 60% and then fission grade 90% levels again. The stockpile of 60% enriched uranium seems to be securely buried under the rubble of the site taken out by US bunker busters. Chances are the containers have been broken and uranium is scattered about the underground facility - creating a serious radiation hazard should Iran attempt to recover what’s left.
Lebanon -
Lebanese Parliament Speaker: Lebanon adheres to Resolution 1701, and Israel must be compelled to implement the ceasefire, halt its daily attacks, and withdraw from the territories in the south.
OBSERVATION - Absent the proclamation is the fact that Lebanon has not disarmed Hezbollah as per the same agreement. Lebanon’s failure has given Israel the rights under 1701 to strike Hezbollah.
Syria -
Sky News Arabia correspondent: An agreement will be reached regarding the renewal of Russia’s control over its air and naval bases in Syria. Contracts will be signed with Russia to arm the Syrian army, especially in the field of air defense. Russian companies will contribute to the reconstruction of infrastructure in Syria. Russia will support the Syrian government in expanding its influence in the country.
OBSERVATION - Russia’s desperation to maintain those bases gave the new regime in Damascus the leverage to extract a lot of investment from Russia. One thing is for sure, the attempts to rearm Syria with air defense assets will result in routine Israeli airstrikes to turn those shiny toys into burned out hulks.
Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025
Several (3) U.S. Air Force B-52H Stratofortress long-range strategic bombers flew over the southern Caribbean Sea yesterday, approximately 300-500 km north of Venezuela’s coast. Venezuelan F-16s were reportedly scrambled in response.
***
The Trump Administration has secretly authorized the CIA to conduct covert actions, including lethal operations, in the Southern Caribbean and Venezuela, as part of the latest step in the administration’s intensifying pressure campaign against drug trafficking cartels in the region and the Venezuelan Government under Nicolás Maduro, according to senior officials who spoke with the New York Times.
***
Venezuela launched three Integral Defense Operational Zones (ZODI) in Nueva Esparta, Sucre, and Delta Amacuro in response to the U.S. military’s presence yesterday. On Monday, Venezuelan President Maduro said that he would continue activating ZODIs through each state. The ZODIs are regional tasking zones for the Venezuelan military which include protecting oil and petrochemical plants, gas pipelines, fuel storage facilities, and service stations “based on the possibility of U.S. military aggression.”
Then its time to arm up with more than pepper spray and tazers.
If antifa is putting lives in danger, those people have the full right to defend themselves.
Trump's making the world sane again... standing up to the world's blackmailers... nice move.
CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025
Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
UPCOMING -
- “No Kings 2.0”, 18 October 2025
Weekend forecast - There is increasing potential for varying levels of violence and vandalism associated with tomorrow’s NK 2.0 event. This time around there seem to be more calls for violence - see below.
Democrats trying to tie into the current shut down to gain attendance.
NK 2.0 may spill over into anti-ICE direct actions in the usual places.
Overall, conditions are more unstable than in previous weekends.
***
NO KINGS -
It is incredible the social media blitz the left is throwing out there to rally the troops for NK 2.0. In some cases vile, others complete fabrications and repetition of points long debunked. They also seem to be followed by the bots cheering them on.
Also is a growing voice for adding violence to these protests in some manner. The previous marches did nothing to move the needle in their favor. Now, activists are reaching into the violence tool box to try to crank up the pressure. On the extreme end, some activists/influencers on the left are even calling for BLM like riots.
***
Gavin Newsom says that people attending the “No Kings” protest this weekend, need to DECLARE their independence from the US government..
OBSERVATION - As I noted earlier, this is a parallel current to the build up of the threat of violence this weekend. Borderline call for insurrection?
***
Crimethinc @Thinc_Exworkers, one of the largest and most influential violent Antifa organizing sites, has released a call-to-action for anarchist extremists to infiltrate the “No Kings” protest on Oct. 18.
The last No Kings protest was marred by deadly violence when one of the volunteer “peacekeepers” fired upon an armed far-left man, thinking the man was a MAGA threat, who was also there for “security.” The liberal “peacekeeper” shot and killed an innocent bystander. No one has been charged.
Antifa often embeds in larger liberal protests, using the crowd as human shields to commit vandalism or violence and then blend back in to evade detection. When police make arrests or use crowd control tools, lying journalists say peaceful protesters are being arrested. Antifa also uses these events to recruit and radicalize people by distributing texts or inviting attendees to training events or after-action meetings. Antifa are desperate to garner more mainstream support after President Trump announced he intends to dismantle their terror cells.
https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1978924902355783875?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
***
(FO) No Kings 2.0 organizers and activists said they are preparing for potential escalation with federal agents and military personnel during the planned 18 October demonstrations. The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) said it is providing de-escalation and know-your-rights training for activists, and is preparing for demonstrations in cities currently under federal surges. Portland, OR officials said they are also preparing for potential escalations between demonstrators and federal forces.
OBSERVATION - This is part of the puzzle where elements of the NK 2.0 are looking at conducting act of violence. They will try to cover it with claims of govt initiated violence or actions.
***
ANTIFA GENERAL -
Federal prosecutors in Texas have for the first time filed terrorism charges targeting antifa, FBI Director Kash Patel said Thursday, citing President Donald Trump’s recent designation of the far-left anarchist movement as a terrorist organization.
Cameron Arnold of Dallas and Zachary Evetts of Waxahachie, Texas, were charged on Wednesday with providing support to terrorists for their alleged role in the non-fatal shooting of a police officer at an immigration detention facility. Both were arrested in July with eight others and charged with attempted murder and weapons offenses.
https://www.newsmax.com/us/prosecutors-antifa-terrorism-charges/2025/10/16/id/1230734/
OBSERVATION - This will be the first court application of the new terror designation. Will the courts allow this to stick or not.
***
Chicago -
Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker (D) said the Illinois State’s Attorney and Attorney General are considering plans to prosecute ICE agents and Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) officers over allegations of misconduct.
***
OTHER -
Socialist Rifle Association likes to portray themselves as a left wing gun rights/education organization, but they’re simply not, they’re a violent group connected to attacks including the Alvarado shooting (Benjamin Song was a member)
Also they don’t advocate gun rights, SRA chapters have directly stated their goal is disarming “those who stand in our way”
https://x.com/antifawatch2/status/1978900322920862101?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
OBSERVATION - SRA has regained some of the spotlight in recent months with leftist shooters being linked to this organization. Goal is to bring training to generally gun adverse leftists as a means to eventually develop an armed cadre for later revolutionary violence.
***
It is now being widely reported that food stamp SNAP benefits will end for many Americans starting Nov 1 if the government shutdown continues. The USDA reportedly does not have continuing authority to disperse funds, and it simply may not have the funds in the first place.
It’s not difficult to predict that if food stamp benefits are halted on November 1, we will have nationwide food riots by November 3, if not sooner.
Nine meals away from anarchy. Never forget that.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Senate Democrats on Thursday blocked a bill that would have funded the Pentagon for a full year, thwarting an effort by Republicans to restart some federal funding as the government shutdown stretched into its 16th day.
The tally was 50-44, falling short of the 60 needed to advance the measure in the 100-member Senate. The vote was largely along party lines, with President Donald Trump’s fellow Republicans voting in favor and all but three Democrats objecting.
https://www.newsmax.com/politics/shutdown/2025/10/16/id/1230686/
OBSERVATION - Democrats digging themselves in deeper.
***
I’ve been watching the developments in the New York mayoral race and Zohran Mamdani. Odds are that he will be elected in spite of all the racial marxist goals he has espoused. It seems the voters of NY have lost their minds.
The destruction of NYC as a financial center, should Mamdani get elected and have his way, will send shock waves across the country and even the world. Free everything and we’ll just tax the rich to pay for it - until the mobile rich pick up and move, along with their fortune 500 company headquarters. Then the only ones left will be the functionally poor trying to support the massive tax structure and deliberately bloated budget.
This is a clear instance of marxist/islam looking to burn everything down to damage not only the city but the country as a whole.
TRUMP Watch –
Reporter: Did Putin try to dissuade you from selling Tomahawk missiles?
President Trump: Well of course. What do you think he’s going to say, “Please sell Tomahawks?” Is he gonna say, “Please sell those Tomahawks, I really appreciate it?” I did actually say, “Would you mind if I gave a couple of thousand Tomahawks to your opposition?” I did say that to him — I said it just that way.
Reporter: And what was his response?
President Trump: He didn’t like the idea. He really didn’t like the idea. No, I said it that way — you have to be a little bit lighthearted sometimes. But no he doesn’t want Tomahawks — Tomahawk is a vicious weapon, it’s a vicious, offensive, incredibly destructive weapon. Nobody wants Tomahawks shot at them.
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1978937043339338013?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
Trump announced that in US-Russia talks on ending the war in Ukraine, the American side will be represented by Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff.
Illegal Immigration –
(FO) The Chief Justice of the Cook County, IL Circuit Court ruled that ICE cannot conduct immigration arrests in county courthouses without a judicial warrant. Chicago officials and activists urged the Illinois legislature to pass a law banning immigration arrests without judicial warrants at all Illinois courts.
OBSERVATION - A continuation of ‘lower’ level legal obstacles being thrown at ICE to thwart otherwise very legal operations. The apparent design of these activist judges is to flood the appellate and USSC with these appeals to generate a quagmire in law enforcement.
***
Chicago, IL activist group Belmont Cragin United is hosting “Whistlemania” training events. At the events, local activists assemble kits that include whistles, Know Your Rights guides, and community resource guides for illegal aliens to alert neighbors when federal immigration operations are nearby.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
On Thursday, following his conversation with Trump, Putin gathered the permanent members of the Russian Security Council in the Kremlin and provided a detailed account of the meeting, - according to Ushakov.
***
Trump: It was a very productive conversation with Putin. We spent a great deal of time talking about Trade between Russia and the U.S. when the War with Ukraine is over. At the conclusion of the call, we agreed that there will be a meeting of our High Level Advisors, next week. The United States’ initial meetings will be led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, together with various other people, to be designated. A meeting location is to be determined. President Putin and I will then meet in an agreed upon location, Budapest, Hungary, to see if we can bring this “inglorious” War, between Russia and Ukraine, to an end.
President Trump says he will meet Vladimir Putin in Budapest “within two weeks” for talks on ending the war in Ukraine, following what he called a “very productive” 2.5-hour phone call. Hungary’s withdrawal from the ICC allows Putin to visit despite his arrest warrant.
OBSERVATION - Trump now focusing on the Ukraine war now that Gaza is handled for at least the short term. After Alaska, I think Trump will be more aggressive this time around and not yield the initiative to putin.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 30-50 degree range with widely scattered showers
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight on October 17, Russia launched 70 attack drones, including Shaheds, Gerans, and other types, from multiple directions including Millerovo, Kursk, Primorsko-Akhtarsk, and occupied Crimea. Ukrainian air defenses shot down or jammed 35 drones so far, mostly over northern and eastern regions.
Ukrainian attack drones successfully struck the Gvardeyskoye fuel depot in Russian-occupied Crimea, setting the facility ablaze. The depot supplie(d) fuel to a large portion of Crimea.
Overnight, Ukraine drones struck the “Vladimirskaya” substation in the Energetik suburb of Vladimir. This 750 kV energy hub is a critical node in Russia’s central power grid, essential for electricity transmission and supply stability across the Vladimir region and beyond.
Russian losses per 17/10/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+730 men
+5 tanks
+10 AFVs
+35 artillery
+1 AD system
***
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Unconfirmed. Russia blew up an ammonia pipeline to poison Ukrainian defenders, then watched its massive relief column get obliterated anyway.
Russian commanders hoped the toxic cloud would clear a path for a massive assault column to reach trapped soldiers near Pokrovsk, deploying six tanks, over 40 armored vehicles, and hundreds of troops.
Instead, Ukrainian drone operators turned the advance into a massacre, destroying over 60 vehicles and killing more than 100 troops in a matter of hours.
By nightfall, the road to Volodymyrivka had become another “road of death” littered with burning wrecks, and the trapped Russian forces remained cut off.
Russians launched a large-scale Russian mechanized assault toward Dobropillia on 16 Oct, using 22 armored vehicles and IFVs. UKR destroyed 9 vehicles and damaged 4 with artillery, FPV drones, minefields, and coordinated counter-attacks.
Analysis and Future Operations —
The fight on the northern flank of the Pokrovsk salient is developing into a substantial short term turning point in favor of Ukraine. The extent of Russian losses here may be part of the driving factor of elevated numbers over the course of the past month.
Russia managed a minor breakthrough in the area north of Pokrovsk, threatening encirclement from the north as well as interdiction of key supply routes. As with so many Russian operations, they failed to have sufficient follow up forces to secure the flanks and Ukraine pounced in counter attacks to cut the Russian forces off. OSINT analysts indicate that the Russian forces have been isolated into three pockets. The farthest pocket - Dobropillia - was the objective of the most recent Russia effort. They drove right into a trap and faced the Ukrainian buzz saw.
The Pokrovsk region in general is one of the axis Russia has rumored to be looking at as one of their objective areas for their ‘winter’ offensive. Not sure if current losses are playing into any Russian changes in planning, but clearly Russia will be facing some pretty smart Ukrainian commanders and troops should they try to push this sector.
Europe / NATO General –
Sweden will start filing up its silos with food for the first time since the Cold War amid fears of a war with Russia.
After ending its long-standing policy of military non-alignment and joining Nato in 2024, the Scandinavian country is taking some drastic measures to ‘build strength in the new total defence.’
Its government announced plans to invest £45 million (575 million kronor) – as part of the 2026 budget – to set up the grain reserves.
Civil defence minister Carl-Oskar said: ‘We are well aware that the risk of Sweden becoming completely cut off is very low, but the risk of complex supply chains being disrupted with major and unpredictable consequences in the event of war and conflict is unfortunately more likely.’
Bohlin said in a statement that the first emergency grain stocks will be in the north of Sweden, a region that risks being isolated in a conflict.
https://metro.co.uk/2025/10/15/sweden-begin-stockpiling-food-first-time-since-cold-war-24432144/
OBSERVATION - This goes along with other preparations by other countries to try to prepare the population for a war.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- IAF hammers Hezbollah sites in S Lebanon
- Israel and other nations place pressure on Hamas to recover the remains of dead hostages.
- Hamas continues its reign of terror against Gazans.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
President Donald Trump issued his sternest warning yet of Hamas terrorists amid the tentative ceasefire enacted Monday.
“If Hamas continues to kill people in Gaza, which was not the Deal, we will have no choice but to go in and kill them,” Trump wrote Thursday on Truth Social. “Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
https://www.newsmax.com/politics/hamas-donald-trump-terror/2025/10/16/id/1230669/
***
Jerusalem Post: Israel has blocked the entry of a Turkish delegation that includes rescue teams and heavy machinery from entering the Gaza Strip. Israeli officials said, “Hamxs can immediately return the bodies of the abducted; there’s no reason to allow Turkish crews into Gaza.”
Senior Israeli officials added that Hamxs knows the location of most of the hostages’ remains. In many cases, they said, Hamxs is aware of where the bodies are buried and can reach them, though in some instances heavy equipment would be needed for recovery.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain reportedly sent a message to the Trump administration warning that Qatar can’t be trusted in its role in Gaza, and that they won’t put any money toward Gaza’s reconstruction until Hamas is actually disarmed.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Potential for injection force to stop the indiscriminate killing of Gazans by Hamas is growing. Trump’s use of “we” not really firm - US alone or allowing Israel to launch strikes. Optimal would be Israel working with some of the clans fighting Hamas to use drone strikes on these groups of Hamas. They have made themselves easier to identify by dusting off their uniforms. Israel could justify on the basis that Hamas is violating the agreement to disarm.and that the weapons being used against Gazans can easily be used against them. Lets not forget, Turkey threatened to invade Israel not too long ago.
As noted before, hamas refusal to disarm will likely be the action that takes the whole peace plan down. With no living hostages to hide behind, Israel will be able to be far more aggressive in their push back into Gaza City.
Israel’s push back to Turkish assets going into Gaza is a clear display of who’s in charge. Turkish elements would only mess up the situation, should things go hot again. This is Israeli controlled territory and they are calling the shots. Israel further points out that at least half of the remaining bodies are easily accessible to Hamas.
Lebanon -
The Israeli army says it carried out airstrikes against several Hezbollah sites near the southern Lebanon village of Mazraat Sinay, which were being used by the terror group to restore its capabilities. Among the targets was a quarry where Hezbollah produced concrete to rebuild its facilities that were destroyed during the fighting last year, according to the IDF.
OBSERVATION - Once again, this activity is what the Lebanese govt is suppose to be preventing, but isn’t.
Syria -
The Syrian government and the main Kurdish-led force in the country’s northeast have agreed in principle on a plan to merge the U.S.-backed force as a cohesive group into the national army, SDF commander Mazloum Abdi told @Hogir_Abdo for the @AP
Thousands of SDF members join new army under deal
OBSERVATION - Very touchy move. With Turkish backing the govt, they could use this as an excuse to force Syria to try to disarm the SDF, making it easier for it to attack Kurdish elements in Northern Syria. It also doesn’t reduce pressure by the AQ related supporters of the Syrian govt who are separate from the military.
Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025
The U.S. military carried out a new strike in Caribbean against suspected drug vessel, there are survivors. - Reuters
ping above
Fine. Deport them.
Thanks Godzilla.
Prayers this report (post), of Yours, will be widely read. Thank You !!! Excellent information.
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