Threat Matrix 2025

Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 24th year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.

2024 has been “historic”: - The landslide election of Trump back into the Whitehouse, and the collapse of the massive lawfare effort against him. - Assassination attempts on Trump - Stunning defeat of Hamas and Hezbollah by Israel - Israel directly hits Iran after Iranian missile strikes, eliminating Iranian missile production capabilities for several years as well as destroying most of its air defense assets. - The almost overnight overthrow of Syria’s Assad and the associated serious losses to Russia and Iran/Hezbollah

I expect 2025 to be even worse as we are facing: - Massive political infighting as the Swamp tries to thwart the Trump agenda - Potential for civil unrest and violence driven by the communist left and Antifa affiliated elements. - Potential violence as Trump implements is deportation plan for millions of illegals. - The potential for a serious and deep recession - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - Combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Russian nuclear threats - China making a move on Taiwan - Israel and Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems.

It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.

For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.

How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.

Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.

My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose – even more so following 2022.

So buckle up for the ride. This is an open thread that I want to continue as a clearing house of tidbits of intelligence contributed by the FR community so that we are all aware of what’s happening and what the impacts of those events will be. Knowledge is power

HEADS UP - My posts for the next couple weeks will continue to have the potential to be a bit sporadic as August activities take over my time.

Today contains stuff the past few days while out that caught my eye as being important.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Illinois has become the first state in the nation to require annual mental health screenings for all schoolchildren beginning in the third grade, under a new law signed by Governor J.B. Pritzker. The initiative, set to take effect in 2027, has sparked heated debate among parents, educators, medical professionals, and privacy advocates. Supporters claim it will provide critical early intervention for struggling children, while critics argue it represents an unprecedented government intrusion into the private lives of families and a potential boon for pharmaceutical companies.

Renowned psychiatrist Dr. Peter Breggin, a prominent critic of mainstream psychiatry, denounced the plan as a pathway to “mass medicalization” of children. He argued that pharmaceutical companies and organized psychiatry are colluding to create new markets by labeling children as mentally ill and prescribing them neuro-toxic drugs with severe side effects. Breggin warned that stigmatizing children with diagnoses could demoralize them and trap them in a lifelong identity as “mental patients.”

Journalist Abigail Shrier, known for exposing what she calls the harmful effects of transgender ideology on youth, also blasted the program. She predicted that large numbers of Illinois children would be falsely flagged as mentally ill and funneled into treatment systems unnecessarily, creating devastating long-term consequences for families and children alike.

https://www.naturalnews.com/2025-08-17-illinois-mandates-schools-test-students-mental-health.html

OBSERVATION - Finger of globalists continue to worm their way into willing elements across the world. In this case, Pritzker has provided an opening. The potential for abuse is pretty clear, even from the initial details. As noted a the link, particularly hard hit will be homeschooled and private schools - a great target for the globalist loving teachers unions and progressive govts.
In the end, expect massive lawsuits to spring out of this action.

***
An investigation conducted by the World Economic Forum’s board on Friday cleared the body’s founder Klaus Schwab and his wife of wrongdoing, after a probe into whistleblower complaints.

“Following a thorough review of all facts, the Board has concluded that ... there is no evidence of material wrongdoing by Klaus Schwab,” the board announced.

In April, the Wall Street Journal reported that an anonymous letter sent to the prestigious institution’s board of directors accused Schwab and his wife Hilde of mixing their personal affairs with Forum resources without proper oversight.

OBSERVATION - The white wash

RELATED -
On 15 August, with the completion of the investigation into Klaus Schwab and his wife Hilde, Brabeck-Letmathe has stepped down from his role as interim Chairman.
On the same day, the World Economic Forum announced the appointment of Larry Fink, Chairman and CEO of BlackRock, as interim co-chairman alongside André Hoffmann, Vice Chairman of pharmaceutical and diagnostic giant Roche. This appointment takes effect immediately.

OBSERVATION - New generation of evil doers, particularly with the emplacement of Fink. Both co-chairs have been the hands on elements of the WEF affecting the global economy. Hoffmann - big pharma gets their boy as well.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated July 26, 2025

UPCOMING - 5-day national economic and labor boycott for 16-20 September

***
Crowds of mostly older whites protested across DC yesterday, demanding that the National Guard leave the city. No significant acts of violence noted, though in some instances protestors got into the face of NG elements and blocked vehicle movements.

Other misc protests notes elsewhere as well. Violence levels remained subdued.

OBSERVATION - The left continues to search for a triggering event to hopefully spring forth a repeat of the Floyd riots. Recent NG call ups have resulted in some protests, but nothing gaining traction. The reported demographics of the DC protests - older white liberals, lacking the presence of the majority of colored classes - is not going to go very far.

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

With the majority of the tariffs now fully in place, economists watching closely for inflationary impacts.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Some Texas democrats are threatening to stay AWOL until Kalifornia’s redistricting has been completed.

TRUMP Watch –

Big show on today with European leaders and discussion on next step with Russia and Ukraine.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

Trying to make heads or tails of the much abbreviated putin/Trump meeting Friday. Theories abound about what was presented / discussed. At the roughest, putin is holding to his June 2024 demands for the surrendering a third of Ukraine to Russia, no NATO membership, and a host of other issues. Zelenskyy ( and european leaders) is unlikely to accept.

Questions of what Trump offered circle around the final surrender of Crimea and a freeze on current lines plus other items.

Trump is meeting with european heads of state, could clarify that these offers are.

Meanwhile, putin appears to have achieved an initial goal of sowing confusion and discord among Ukraine and its supporters, weakening resolve.

If putin gets his demands, there is nothing to prevent him from taking the time to regroup his military and continuing the attack at a later date.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Mostly fair with temps the 50-80 range with a cooling trend towards there end of the period

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Most recent - overnight, Russia launched 4 ballistic missiles and 140 drones against Ukraine. Air defense downed or suppressed 88 Shaheds and decoy UAVs across the north, south, east and center. Strikes were recorded at 25 locations in Donetsk, Kharkiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa and Kyiv regions.

Russian losses per 18/08/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff.

+940 men
+2 tanks
+5 AFVs
+43 artillery
+1 MLRS

Ukrainian drones attacked occupied Donetsk at night. Lots of explosions were reported, one big fire could be seen.

Ukrainian paratroopers from the 79th and 82nd Air Assault Brigades liberated the villages of Zolotyi Kolodyaz and Petrivka in Donetsk region. Russians reportedly suffered heavy losses

Summary —

Peace talks will be on the front burner today and likely the rest of the week. With all the competing views and reports, I have no clue as to which way they will go.

On the ground, local Ukrainian counter attacks have been regaining ground lost over the past week. Further evidence that Russia doesn’t have the capability to exploit and drive deeper.

Russian drone/missile attacks have been relatively low, but with the summit over, I expect some large attacks this week some time

Europe / NATO General –

These leaders are reported to attend the meetings on the Ukraine war:

- European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen
- German Chancellor Friedrich Merz
- Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni
- Finnish President Alexander Stubb
- French President Emmanuel Macron
- NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutt
- UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer
- Ukraine president Zelenskyy

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- More hostage / ceasefire movements.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Hamas terrorist organization negotiators in Egypt have reportedly eased some of the demands that previously derailed hostage talks, an Arab diplomat and an Israeli official told The Times of Israel on Friday. Speaking on condition of anonymity, the Arab leader cautioned that despite this shift, significant differences remain between the parties

Arab mediators have since conveyed to Israeli officials that Hamas may have softened its stance. However, Israeli officials reportedly responded that they are no longer interested in a partial agreement. Jerusalem has indicated that Israel will only call off its planned military operation in Gaza City if Hamas meets its key demands.

https://allisraelnews.com/hamas-signals-flexibility-regarding-hostage-talks-israel-insists-terror-group-disarms

RELATED - Hamas has received a new Gaza ceasefire proposal and will respond today, Al-Araby reports. Al-Akhbar says Palestinian factions in Cairo are reviewing Israel’s conditions: Hamas disarmament, exile of leaders, return of all hostages, Israeli security control over 25% of Gaza, and a new government excluding both Hamas and Fatah that recognizes peace with Israel. Hamas negotiator Khalil al-Hayya insists disarmament would only be possible within a political process leading to a Palestinian state.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Israel’s Defense Minister:
“We are imposing an air and naval blockade on them (Houthi) that is very painful for them, and this morning we attacked infrastructure and energy targets. This is just the beginning. The rest will be strong and painful.”

***
The IDF says air defenses intercepted a Houthi ballistic missile fired at Israel.

***
A missile fired by an Israeli naval vessel struck a Houthi power plant, setting it on fire

Local reports in Yemen indicate that leaders of the Houthis were present in the control room of the power station when it was attacked this morning by the Israeli Navy.
(The Telegraph)

OBSERVATIONS - Houthi influence has been minimal lately. Could be the cumulative effects of the economic strikes taking their toll as there are critical shortages of electricity and drinking water.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

The recent hostage/ceasefire rumblings are unlikely to get anywhere in the short term. Evidence that Hamas is losing control over the famine narrative and is trying to play its hostage card in an effort to delay the next phase of Israeli action in Gaza.

Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025

A senior Iranian lawmaker declared that Iran now possesses the capability to strike targets across the globe - including the United States and Canada - using advanced long-range missiles, which he claimed are capable of inflicting devastation equivalent to nuclear weaponry.

“When we say that the Khorramshahr-5 [missile] has been upgraded, and has a range of 12,000 km, a velocity of several Machs, and a 2-ton payload, and that it can hit a target with precision - do you know what this means? It means that the kind of [damage] normally caused by 2-3 nuclear bombs could also be achieved with 10 Khorramshahr-5 missiles. This is deterrence. If the U.S. or Canada or any other country plans to attack you, you can strike them back, [on their soil],” Zohrevand said.

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/413442

OBSERVATION - One of Irans long range goals is to develop reliable missiles that can strike the US. The current US defense missile system was designed based on that growing threat.

Another part of the interview notes that Iran is threatening to move some sort of naval asset within range of the US and fire from sea. The potential for a shipping container based missile platform has been one bantered around for many years now and there are prototypes out there. It has been considered to also be a platform for a nuclear weapon, smuggled into the US, hence radiation surveying equipment at US ports.

***
Iran’s Water Resources Management Company:
In 12 important and central dams in Iran for supplying drinking water and agricultural water, the water reserves are below 10%.
(Iran International)

OBSERVATION - Not only facing loss of drinking water but an agricultural disaster as well.

Imagine
- 125 degrees
- no power
- no water

But the ruling mullahs have both.

***
Explosion and large fire at Behran oil storage facility in Baqerabad Refinery, Shahr-e Rey The second explosion at an oil refinery in Iran today (yesterday)

OBSERVATION - Doesn’t have to be sabotage, but conditions are ripe.

Iraq -

The Iraqi News Agency, citing an advisor to the Prime Minister, reports that the mission of the international coalition forces in Baghdad and at Ain al-Asad base will conclude in September.

Lebanon -

Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem threatens civil war, threatens there will be “no life” in Lebanon if the government tries to disarm Hezbollah.
He added that Hezbollah and the Amal Movement were delaying street protests while there is still room for a political resolution.

Lebanese PM Nawaf Salam reiterates slams Hezbollah for threatening civil war, reiterates that no non-state parties in Lebanon are authorized to carry weapons.

Western diplomatic sources responded this evening to threats by Hezbollah Secretary-General Naeem Qassem on the “Al-Jadeed” channel: “Hezbollah must understand that it lost the war and cannot impose its conditions to stop it. Lebanon must commit to an international agenda to gain support and recover.”

OBSERVATION - The potential for a limited civil war remains, however, Hezbollah will continue to face Israeli strikes on weapons and munitions storages sites, harming Hezbollah’s capabilities.

Syria -
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 25, 2025

The new Syrian regime has agreed to allow a humanitarian corridor from Quneitra, near the Israel–Syria border, to the Druze province of As-Suwayda.

OBSERVATION - As previously noted, the Syrian govt has essentially sought to completely isolate the Druze region in S Syria with essentially a blockade. How willing the govt is to keep the route secure is another thing. Special note is the origin near Israel.

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