Posted on 01/01/2025 6:44:53 AM PST by Godzilla
I do not intend to post tomorrow unless something catastrophic happens.
Sunday - Resurrection Sunday. Jesus Christ is risen, He is risen indeed.
Today is the original Patriot Day which marks the multiple anniversary of the battles of Lexington and Concord, known as “The Shot Heard ‘Round the World”, on April 19, 1775.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
May Day - May 1st
Weekend is here. A number of rallies / protests across the country but potential for violence and vandalism is low. As always, in liberal strongholds, keep situationally alert.
***
(FO) New York Times columnist David Brooks called for mass mobilization protests as a way to stop what he describes as President Trump’s march to authoritarianism.
“It’s time for a comprehensive national civic uprising. It’s time for Americans in universities, law, business, nonprofits and the scientific community, and civil servants and beyond to form one coordinated mass movement. Trump is about power. The only way he’s going to be stopped is if he’s confronted by some movement that possesses rival power,” Brooks writes.
OBSERVATION - The drumbeat by leftists and anti-Trumpers continues with the open calls for mass ‘movements’ with ‘rival power’.
***
In a stunning move that has the DC establishment scrambling, Director of National Intelligence Gabbard just declassified what might be the most disturbing government document of the Biden era: their deceptively-named “Strategic Implementation Plan for Countering Domestic Terrorism.”
Let’s cut through the bureaucratic noise and call this what it really is: a systematic blueprint for targeting and silencing conservative Americans. While Biden was preaching “unity” from his teleprompter, his administration was quietly crafting plans to turn Big Tech into their personal censorship machine.
The scheme reads like a progressive wish list: monitoring “suspicious” online speech (translation: conservative viewpoints), expanding federal watchlists to include Americans with the “wrong” political beliefs, and – you guessed it – finding new ways to chip away at Second Amendment rights.
This wasn’t just government overreach, it was a calculated assault on the fundamental rights that make America exceptional. While the left was hyperventilating about “threats to democracy,” they were building the infrastructure for genuine governmental tyranny.
OBSERVATION - This is a ‘conspiracy theory’ that was well known by the efforts of the regime to get in enacted. By eating away at the edges and building upon the successes of govt suppression from the wuhan shut down, it would drain the will to resist thru a thousand paper cuts.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Apr 14, 2025
- Potential for soon direct conflict with Iran could activate cells in the US.
- Concern for a potential Islamic terror strike on US hospital(s) by the end of the month, first part of April. UPDATE, maintaining this part of the warning until after Holy Week is ended
Good Friday - Resurrection Sunday are upon us, the holiest days in Christendom and likely target period for islamic terror.
***
FBI Director Kash Patel just announced they have arrested the terrorist who firebombed a Kansas City, MO Tesla showroom
He’s facing 20 YEARS, and this is the SECOND anti-Tesla terrorist caught this week.
FBI apprehended Owen McIntire, a college student in Boston. He threw a Molotov cocktail at the dealership while home for spring break.
Economy- VERY HIGH Threat - as of April 4, 2025
Rough week on the Dow.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Senate and House Republicans, and the White House are drafting plans for a new top tax bracket of 40% on individuals earning more than $1 million per year. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said “everything is on the table” to get tax cuts through the congress.
OBSERVATION - Communism-lite, RINOS gotta keep RINOING
***
Considerable judicial activity overnight
Federal appeals court has BLOCKED Judge Boasberg’s plan to hold Trump officials in criminal contempt
OBSERVATION - This was expected. Boasberg was found to not have jurisdiction over the case and all associated rulings etc were powerless - even those that occurred prior to the USSC ruling.
***
In a rare late-night decision, the U.S. Supreme Court tonight by a vote of 7-2 has ordered the Trump Administration to halt the deportation of any further foreign nationals under the Alien Enemies Act of 1798. This follows a rush earlier today by the lawyers of several Venezuelan illegal immigrants to the Supreme Court, seeking an emergency order to prevent what was believed to be another round of imminent deportations to the notorious CECOT maximum-security mega-prison in El Salvador.
OBSERVATION - This is a setback, seems that a sticking point was there concern over due process / warning to permit these illegal thugs a chance to appeal the deportation orders. The actual composition of those ‘appeals’ process is not clear at the moment. Same USSC that ruled earlier that Trump was permitted to use the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 for deportations. USSC better get its act together, they just made the Judicial - Executive constitutional crisis worse with this decision.
***
A federal appeals court rejected on Friday a request by President Donald Trump’s administration to allow it to move forward with stripping temporary legal protections for about 350,000 Venezuelan migrants, exposing them to imminent deportation.
The San Francisco-based 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals declined to pause a lower-court judge’s March 31 order halting Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem’s decision to terminate the temporary protected status that was granted to Venezuelans.
OBSERVATION - “Temporary” means temporary and the court is trying to force it into being permanent.
Illegal Immigration –
A lot of the illegal aliens issues are focused on the courts. However, the action on the border continues to be down by 90+% over biden era.
Russia -
(ISW) Putin, has repeatedly stated that he is unwilling to accept any agreement that does not concede to all of Russia’s territorial and political demands for Ukraine.
Russian officials’ continued insistence on these demands has also set conditions for Russian society to expect these demands to be fulfilled in any conclusion of the war in Ukraine, and Kremlin mouthpieces stating explicitly that these demands must be met even in a peace deal favorable to Russia is a reflection of this long-term rhetorical line. Kremlin maintains its long-standing goals in Ukraine, and Russian officials continue to indicate and explicitly state that they are unwilling to compromise on these goals.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Fair, temps 50 - 70.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
At night, Russia launched a missile and drone attack.
Shot down:
0/2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles
0/2 Onyx anti-ship missiles
0/3 Kh-31P anti-radiation missiles
33/87 Shahed drones
Another 36 drones were lost in location without inflicting negative consequences
. Russian losses per 19/04/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
+1180 men
+14 tanks
+9 AFVs
+70 artillery
+1 MLRS
+3 AD systems
Sumy -
Partial blackout in Sumy region after Russian attack at the power infrastructure
Summary —
Russia gaining terrain in some areas of the front but at this time nothing that would indicate a focus of an “offensive”. Some analysts have indicated that Ukraine’s primary defenses along the front have shifted to FPV drones and less on soldiers on the front. The analysts suggests that Russian advances tend to be the result of poor drone tactics or overwhelming Russian assault forces.
Any short term hopes for a ceasefire are dead.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Russia wants to replace Moldova’s leadership with pro-Kremlin puppets and use the country against Ukraine, warns President Maia Sandu. She emphasized that Ukraine remains Moldova’s shield — and Chișinău has a moral duty to stay out of Putin’s war.
OBSERVATION - A Russia objective from the war was to establish a “land bridge” across S Ukraine and into Moldova, essentially to take over that country as well. The sudden loss of the Russian amphibious ships and supporting combat vessels, combined with the stalling of the initial assaults and Russia being forced back across the Dniper River and away from Odessa put a stop to this plan. Russian held Transnistria continues to be a thorn in the side for both Moldova and Ukraine.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Second round of Iranian nuclear talks today
- Israel firm on preventing Iran from getting the bomb, even if it has to go it alone.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Israel has not ruled out an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities in the coming months despite President Donald Trump telling Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the US was, for now, unwilling to support such a move, according to an Israeli official and two other people familiar with the matter.
Israeli officials have vowed to prevent Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, and Netanyahu has insisted that any negotiation with Iran must lead to the complete dismantling of its nuclear program.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-850661
Israeli Defense Minister: We will do “whatever it takes” to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons
Israeli official: Reports of plans to attack Iran without US participation are untrue.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Scattered air strikes across the territory.
IDF moved deeper into Rafah, striking Hamas facilities
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem gave a speech on Friday in which he made clear that the terrorist organization will not disarm.
“Do you expect us to become defenseless and allow Israel to enter all of Lebanon? That will not happen. If anyone thinks Israel will achieve its goal, they are deceiving themselves. The resistance will remain,” Qassem declared, claiming that Hezbollah’s weapons are necessary because Lebanon itself “is unable to defend itself.”
Qassem further stated that he would be willing to discuss the issue of the organization’s weapons only after a full Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory.
“After Israel fulfills its obligations, Lebanon will begin discussing the other conditions of 1701. There are basic rules for any dialogue. The first is protecting Lebanon’s sovereignty, liberating its land, and stopping all forms of aggression against it. The second is to invest the strength of the resistance and its weapons in any defensive strategy. When we are called for dialogue, we will be ready, but it will not be under the pressure of Israel and its aggression.”
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/407045
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
US-led coalition aircraft launch several raids on the capital, Sana’a.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
In Gaza, Israel maintains full initiative on fighting and is not hampered as it has in the past. Technique of continuing to reduce Hamas controlled territory, eliminating leaders and munitions is making Hamas more desperate and inclined to release greater numbers of hostages for some sort of ceasefire.
In Lebanon, Hezbollah is talking big, like it is the govt or something. For the large part it still has significant control over the govt. In the lasts bleat above, Hezbollah is trying to reform its image as the defender of Lebanon - apart from the govt and military. This is placing them on a collision course with the govt who recently pledged to disarm and disband Hezbollah following US and European pressure to live up to the current cease fire agreement. Israel, for most of its part, is satisfied with maintaining the smaller drone strikes targeting Hezbollah leadership and arms/munitions transport in vehicles. Israel’s success is documented by the half hidden obituaries of Hezbollah leaders /fighters killed by these strikes.
Syria remains stable, but US withdrawal from northeastern Syria may create issues for Israel at a later date.
Iran is still on the front burner. We’ll see what today brings. Will it be more kissy kissy or real substantive movement.
Iran –
- May 5th - projected end of negotiation window
***
Today’s second round of nuclear talks between the United States and Iran have now begun at the Omani Embassy in Rome.
OBSERVATION - I have low expectations for this meeting. Iran showed up 30 minutes late - a political maneuver to show ‘power’ over the talks and the agenda is essentially their agenda.
***
According to Reuters, a senior Iranian official has said that Iran’s leader, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has a number of red lines that he has “mandated” to the Iranian negotiating team that must be adhered to.
Iran’s leader will not allow the dismantling of centrifuges for enriching uranium, any reductions in their stockpiles of enriched uranium below that of the deal from 2015, or any total halts in the enrichment process. Additionally, the Ayatollah has said that they will not negotiate at all on their ballistic missile program, a capability that they ignominiously claim is divorced from the nuclear discussion.
***
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi claimed on Saturday during talks with the US that Israel was the main roadblock to achieving a non-nuclear Middle East, according to Israeli media reports.
“Iran rejects weapons of mass destruction. The only obstacle to achieving a Middle East free of nuclear weapons is Israel,” Aragchi said.
***
Iran proposed a three-stage nuclear deal proposal that caps Iranian uranium enrichment but would leave the necessary infrastructure in place to enable Iran to rapidly rebuild its nuclear program if the deal collapsed
OVERALL OBSERVATION - Seems like Iran believes that the threat of military action is done and that they can resume the play at negotiation game once again. This effort recognizes that Iran is militarily very weak against any kind of an attack and they need time to restore and develop new defenses.
What is in Trump’s mind as he sees this as well as his historical dealings with them under 45? I don’t know. My gut feeling is that he is far more inclined to bring Iran’s program down by bombs if necessary, but part of his nature is the ‘negotiations ‘ a la the Art of the Deal. Iran needs to be careful not to tip this balance in their efforts to delay the denuclearization efforts. If they do or say something that shows a dishonest effort, Trump may suddenly push the button. He’s got most of the key military preparations done in that event.
We will have to see what pans out from today’s talks.
Syria -
(ISW)The United States will withdraw from three bases in northeastern Syria, including two positions designed to support counter-ISIS operations along the Euphrates River in Deir ez Zor Province. The US troop presence in Syria will drop from 2,000 to 1,400 under the current drawdown plan.
***
(ISW) United States reportedly brokered a ceasefire agreement between Turkey and the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) (predominantly Kurdish elements) on April 17.
Misc of Note –
Many are upset that the DoJ / FBI appear to be delaying arrests of characters involved in the political assault on Trump from the past 4 years. Calls for ‘where are the arrests’ are getting pretty loud. In my view, I’m willing to give them some more time. REMEMBER THESE KEY THINGS -
1 They have to identify and clean out the trash who participated in the anti-Trump weaponization of their departments.
2 It takes time to put together an operational team to not only focus on the first order Trump policy efforts - like DOGE and deportations - but to then delve internally to id and prosecute those who acted in an illegal manner.
3 Bringing charges takes time, grand juries need to be empaneled and prosectors loyal to the country and Trump need to investigate and develop the cases / charges to bring to grand juries.
We are just 4 months into this term. 1 and 2 above are well underway, though 2 seems to be lagging a bit. I’m willing to cut a little more slack to let them get the job done and done correctly. Going in half a$$ed will not work. But this cannot wait too long or the momentum will be lost.
Godzilla wrote:
“
***
In a rare late-night decision, the U.S. Supreme Court tonight by a vote of 7-2 has ordered the Trump Administration to halt the deportation of any further foreign nationals under the Alien Enemies Act of 1798. “
See woodpusher’s post:
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4311919/posts?page=50#50
The USSC said to wait till the ACLU case gets thru the 5th circuit court and then to them.
Let’s cut through the bureaucratic noise and call this what it really is: a systematic blueprint for targeting and silencing conservative Americans. While Biden was preaching “unity” from his teleprompter, his administration was quietly crafting plans to turn Big Tech into their personal censorship machine.
The scheme reads like a progressive wish list: monitoring “suspicious” online speech (translation: conservative viewpoints), expanding federal watchlists to include Americans with the “wrong” political beliefs, and – you guessed it – finding new ways to chip away at Second Amendment rights.
While the left was hyperventilating about “threats to democracy,” they were building the infrastructure for genuine governmental tyranny.
https://pjmedia.com/matt-margolis/2025/04/18/tulsi-exposes-a-terrifying-biden-era-program-that-was-meant-to-be-secret-n4939013
With democrats always watch what they do - NOT what they say. Words are cheap.
If Iran gets three nukes they'll destroy Israel... everyone knows that. Israel must NOT allow Iran to get the bomb. Period
Yeah, GOPJ, the document is outrageous. And the way the document is structured is very communist. Though shalt OBEY thy masters.
Happy Easter, Godzilla.
Relatively calm Resurrection Sunday, but things are taking off again like a rocket.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Geneva, Switzerland, 21 April 2025 – Klaus Schwab, Chairman of the Board of Trustees of the World Economic Forum, has informed the Board: “Following my recent announcement, and as I enter my 88th year, I have decided to step down from the position of Chair and as a member of the Board of Trustees, with immediate effect.”
https://www.weforum.org/press/2025/04/world-economic-forum-announces-governance-transition/
OBSERVATION - Schwab had already announced his intention to step down, at the beginning of the month, but it was understood that the process of doing so would stretch on into 2027. At this stage, it’s unclear what has prompted the sudden change from Schwab.
This also throws open the discussion of his successor, now having to be accelerated rather than worked out over the course of the next year.
***
Pope Francis died on Easter Monday, April 21, 2025, at the age of 88 at his residence in the Vatican’s Casa Santa Marta.
“Dearest brothers and sisters, with deep sorrow I must announce the death of our Holy Father Francis. At 7:35 this morning, the Bishop of Rome, Francis, returned to the house of the Father. His entire life was dedicated to the service of the Lord and His Church,” Vatican camerlengo Cardinal Kevin Farrell announced.
OBSERVATION - In poor health, the suddenness came as a surprise following his limited appearance and address on Sunday.
This and Schwab’s sudden announcement has some people wondering if there is a connection.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
May Day - May 1st
Anti-Trump rallies this weekend: produced sparse crowds of mostly older White folks, pre-printed signs, no clever chants. Low-energy protests fizzled out in hours.
OBSERVATION - An attempt to try to keep what ever enthusiasm generated from the “Hands Off” protests of a couple weeks ago. The left’s effort to mobilize is losing ground now.
OTOH, the call for violence continues to grow in some corners of the inter webs like Reddit. The failure of these weekends organized events may increase calls and efforts by the more violent elements to step up their actions.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Apr 21, 2025
- Potential for soon direct conflict with Iran could activate cells in the US.
Threatcon remans the same, only that the US / World is out of the Easter season. Iran situation still looms high.
Economy- VERY HIGH Threat - as of April 4, 2025
Markets still shaky over tariffs, and likely to become a little more unstable with the news of the Pope’s death and Schwab’s immediate resignation from the WEF.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
USS Nimitz (CVN-68) made its first port call since departing its Indo-Pacific deployment, arriving in Guam on Friday.
OBSERVATION - Should things get real spicy, the Nimitz would be sent to the middle east with great haste. How far west it goes could indicate prepositioning for a quick reinforcement of CENTCOM.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Over the weekend, the Supreme Court halted the deportation flights of Tren de Aragua members. It was a 7-2 decision. Only Justices Alito and Thomas dissented.
Earlier this month, USSC ruled was that the president has the authority to invoke the Alien Enemies Act to deport these illegal alien terrorists—members of Tren de Aragua.
For this group in Texas that was about to be shipped out, they claim no options to challenge was afforded to them. The American Civil Liberties Union raced to block these deportations.
OBSERVATION - Justice Alito lit a fire under this decision and well as the supporting justices. In essence, the new pro-illegal wing of the USSC overstepped its jurisdiction, as the case was about to undergo review by the Circuit Court of Appeal and allowed the ACLU to skip over it without allowing any counter argument from the Trump administration. As noted, the USSC had already given its OK for the law to be used, now suddenly has second thoughts. This temporary order has not cleared matters up, but have only muddied the waters even further. The USSC should have stayed in its lane and allowed the appeals court to do its business before jumping in like this.
***
The deep state is in a state of chaos after Pete Hegseth fired three Department of Defense aides who were allegedly involved in the leaking of classified government information earlier this year, along with the departure of Hegseth’s chief of staff from his role following an extended period of turmoil within the agency.
This also has another unconfirmed claim that Hegseth passed on operational information in another Signal chat room.
OBSERVATION - It was known that the pentagon embedded deep state minions were going to go all out to disrupt and stop Hegseth / Trump from changing the power structure there.
Illegal Immigration –
News from Canada that they are becoming inundated by illegals leaving the US and headed for Canada.
China -
Some economic analysts are suggesting that China is in a deflationary downward spiral that could cause its economy to crash should the current tariff levels from Trump are maintained for any significant period of time.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Fair, temps 50 - 80s with cooling trend towards the end of the period..
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia declared a ceasefire for Easter that was only marginally effective as both sides continued fighting, though at apparently lower level in intensity. Russia’s MoD says the “truce” is officially over and combat operations have resumed.
Overnight, Russia once again attacked with Shaheds. Out of 96 drones, 42 were shot down and another 47 were lost in location without negative consequences.
Russian losses per 21/04/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff. A decrease in losses during the ‘truce’.
+670 men
+2 tanks
+2 AFVs
+10 artillery
Kursk -
Ukraine forces are losing more terrain and may soon be pushed back across the border back into Ukraine.
Summary —
Very likely that Russia used the ‘truce’ to reposition forces for impending offensive actions. In truth: in some parts of the front, it never stopped. The so-called “Easter truce” was a PR-stunt than anything else.
Fighting over the past couple days were moderate with casualties reported for Russia less than half the current daily trend.
A number of potential new offensive axises have been bantered around besides Sumy and Zaporizhzhia. Most recent is Kharkiv, which could be a supporting attack for Sumy.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Airstrikes continue to keep the pressure on in Gaza as rumors indicate a much larger ground effort is in the offing.
- Unusual number of C17 flights from the US continue to arrive at Nevatim Airbase.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Israel announced the cancellation of entry visas for 27 parliament members and left-wing activists from France, just two days before their scheduled visit to Israel and territories of the Palestinian Authority, according to a French news agency.
The Interior Ministry confirmed that “it was decided to deny their entry under Section 40 of the Entry Law (Activities against the State), after the reason for their visit became clear.” Israeli officials added that the delegation’s entry was initially approved, but once it became apparent that they intended to cause provocation in Judea and Samaria, Interior Minister Moshe Arbel ordered the cancellation of the approval.
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-77/
***
Israel is considering re-arresting terrorists freed in past hostage deals, following Hamxs’ refusal to advance a new agreement.
***
Something unusual is going on once again, on Easter Sunday a total of 8 C-17A Globemaster IIIs with the U.S. Air Force’s Air Mobility Command (AMC) were tracked flying between Ramstein Air Base in Germany and Nevatim Airbase in Southern Israel, all of which were linked with the transfer of air-defense systems and originated from either Fort Bliss or Fort Cavazos, Texas. Since April 10th, 25 C-17s have landed at Nevatim, with most attached to this same air-defense mission.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
An airstrike by Israeli warplanes targeted the Al-Mawasi area in Khan Yunis, south of the Gaza Strip.
***
Some analysts are indicating that Hamas is hiding in the refugee tent cities and not very willing to come out and confront the IDF. Further indicators are that Hama’s recruitment efforts have brought in a sizable number of young men/children with virtually no experience or training, making it difficult to coordinate ground actions against IDF.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IDF spokesman:
IDF aircraft struck launchers and Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon’s Nabatiya area. The IDF also eliminated Hezbollah’s Head of Engineering in the Al-Adaysa compound. The military called these actions a clear violation of Israeli-Lebanese understandings and a threat to Israeli security.
Hezbollah announces the killing of leader Hussein Nasr in an Israeli raid in southern Lebanon.
***
Lebanese army reports it preempted a Hezbollah rocket attack on Israel by seizing a Hezbollah position and capturing dozens of rockets and launchers.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israeli Chief of Staff: We control “key points” in Syria. Our forces have taken control of vital areas because “Syria has disintegrated.” We do not know how things will develop in Syria
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
A explosion occurred inside Nour Shams camp in Tulkarm, as the Israeli army operation continues.
Israeli security forces operation in the town of Beit Ummar, north of Hebron and in the town of Idhna, west of Hebron
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
US airstrikes continue against Houthi targets
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Lack of progress on hostage releases is triggering Israel to take the ground operation to the next level. Currently controlling 30-40% of Gaza, Israel is likely to move to take control of all of Rafah while expanding areas in the north.
Hezbollah talking tough over the weekend, but is still in a very poor position to do much about Israel. The question is just how serious the Lebanese govt and army are about disarming and disbanding hezbollah.
Iran still on count down IMHO. Some rumor that the US is ‘acting’ out as being willing to negotiate so as not to be seen as the aggressor when they drop the hammer. Israel maintains the right to strike Iran’s nuclear program indecently from the US. Combined, some think this is a psyops ploy against Iran.
Iran –
- May 5th - projected end of negotiation window
***
Saturday’s 4 hour ‘negotiation’ session was once again a nothing burger. Technical working groups for both sides are to work out details on the little that has been agreed to. Iran continues to control the agenda and topics, essentially leading US negotiators around by the nose IMHO. The current framework resembles 0bama’s failed plan than it does Trump’s pronouncements.
Iran is succeeding in its goals to delay, obfuscate and spin the momentum in its favor. Unless Trump has something else up his sleeve, and he may with the unusual number of cargo flights into Israel, this is potentially a massive foreign policy failure.
Turkey –
The head of Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization (MİT), İbrahim Kalın, convened with senior Hamas members on Saturday to discuss aid routes into Gaza, according to JNS.
The agency released a statement condemning Israel following the meeting, accusing it of carrying out “genocidal activities.”
The meeting featured Muhammad Darwish, chairman of the Hamas Shura Council, though the location was not disclosed. According to MİT, the discussion centered on enabling humanitarian assistance to reach Gaza and assessing “efforts to halt Israel’s genocidal activities” while pushing for a “permanent and comprehensive ceasefire.”
“The latest situation in the efforts to halt Israel’s genocidal activities in Gaza and to reach a permanent and comprehensive ceasefire was evaluated,” the agency said, reiterating Ankara’s full support for Hamas’s stance against Israel.
“Turkey will always stand by the people of Gaza, who have shown great determination and patience to protect their lands, despite Israeli attacks targeting civilians and hunger policies implemented to displace the people,” the statement added.
Kalın’s engagement with Hamas comes amid increasingly hostile rhetoric from Turkish leadership, particularly from President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has increased his verbal attacks on Israel since the start of the war in Gaza on October 7, 2023.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/407122
OBSERVATION - Brought up numerous times is why is a NATO ally meeting and pledging support to a terror group? Disturbing is the implication that Turkey may take over supplying weapons and other material to Hamas.
This also has another unconfirmed claim that Hegseth passed on operational information in another Signal chat room.
I see these alleged *leaks* as someone wisely exposing DS operatives for the purposes of getting rid of them.
There was talk about these deep staters organizing to deter the trump initiative in the pentagon. Seeing it being played out.
Good to see it this time around.
Knowing 'protesters' are paid hacks takes the 'romance' out of protests. These aren't Americans standing up for thier rights - it's a rent a mob ...
Economy- VERY HIGH Threat - as of April 4, 2025
U.S. stock index futures rose Tuesday, bouncing back after equities tumbled in the previous session, when President Donald Trump’s criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell rattled investors.
All three major indexes ended Monday’s session down more than 2% after Trump redoubled his attacks against Powell for not cutting interest rates, sparking concern about the central bank’s independence and the future monetary policy path.
https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/stocks-corporate-earnings/2025/04/22/id/1207809/
OBSERVATION - Markets continue to be volatile. Gold has shot to new records, near $3500/oz.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is facing round two of a campaign to delegitimize him and try to force him out. New allegation of information leaks have sprung following the expulsion of 3 high level aids in his headquarters over the Signal scandal of a couple weeks ago.
Remember, there were reports shortly after Trump was elected of core elements of the Pentagon conspiring on ways to disrupt and stop Trump actions to reform and eliminate deep state assets. Hegseth poses a huge threat to those deep state assets.
NPR is claiming that Trump is looking for a replacement. Well its NPR. . . . . .
I suspect he will be able to weather this round of attacks as well, as long as he has Trump’s support and externals indicate that to be the case.
TRUMP Watch –
Trump sat with kids at the Easter Egg roll and colored a bunny blue. “I’ve never seen one colored blue” so he decided to do so with the kids.
Illegal Immigration –
Ongoing legal battles over deportations and visa revocations. USSC receiving all kinds of flack for its middle of the night restraining order preventing more Venezuelans from being deported.
China -
The Chinese government on Monday warned other countries against curbing trade with China in order to win a reprieve from American tariffs, promising to retaliate against countries that do so.
The Chinese Ministry of Commerce said it was responding to foreign media reports that President Trump’s administration was trying to pressure other countries on their trade with China as a negotiating tactic.
“Appeasement will not bring peace, and compromise will not earn respect,” the ministry said in a statement. “Seeking so-called exemptions by harming the interests of others for one’s own selfish and shortsighted gains is like negotiating with a tiger for its skin. In the end, it will only lead to a lose-lose situation.”
China “firmly opposes any party reaching a deal at the expense of China’s interests,” it said, adding that China would “resolutely take countermeasures.” (NYT)
OBSERVATION - Economically isolating China has been one of Trump’s goals, and so far it seems to be working. I read that India is now looking to side with the US against China on this. China burned a lot of bridges over the past several years with their bullying and aggression in the S China Sea region and its come back to bite them.
***
China is reporting that the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) drove a Philippine Navy corvette away from the Scarborough Shoal over the weekend. The Philippines denies China’s legality for the maneuver but did not deny the event.
And they wonder why they are not receiving support from countries in the region in their tariff war with the US. . . .
Russia -
*****
Russian President Vladimir Putin has signaled he is open to bilateral talks with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky for the first time since the early stages of the war.
Speaking to Russian state TV on Monday, Putin said Russia has “always looked positively on any peace initiatives. We hope that representatives of the Kyiv regime will feel the same way”.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Putin’s comments indicated a willingness to engage in direct talks with Ukraine about not striking civilian targets.
Zelensky did not respond directly to Putin’s comments, but said Ukraine was “ready for any conversation” that would ensure the safety of civilians.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpq7ywvw1lzo
Kremlin: A viable settlement to the Ukrainian crisis is unlikely to be reached in the short timeframe
OBSERVATION - putin playing his propaganda efforts like a master violinist.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Fair, temps 50 - 80s with cooling trend towards the end of the period..
RUMINT –
Russia has reportedly deployed 6 missile carriers to the Black Sea—total volley up to 46 Kalibrs, monitoring groups say.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight, Russia launched 54 Shahed drones of which 38 were shot down. Another 16 were lost in location.
At this moment, 20 Shaheds are inside Ukrainian airspace mainly heading for Kyiv.
About 26 Shahed-type drones are circling over Black Sea near Odesa with multiple strikes.
NOTE - Ukraine’s numbers are not adding up.
Russian losses per 22/04/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff.
+1130 men
+4 tanks
+19 AFVs
+26 artillery
+1 AD system
This period does’t reflect the Zaporizhzhia action which should show up tomorrow.
Kursk -
Russia forces are maintaining heavy pressures to force remaining Ukraine forces out of Russia.
Kharkiv Front -
At least 12 drone strikes were reported in Kharkiv
Zaporizhzhia Axis -
A massive Russian assault in the Zaporizhzhia axis was crushed by the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade — over 300 troops and 40+ vehicles, including tanks and IFVs, advanced but were spotted early by Ukrainian drones.
Artillery and UAV strikes began 8km out, followed by fierce resistance from infantry using small arms and mortars. After a two-hour battle, 29 enemy vehicles and around 140 troops were destroyed. Not a single Ukrainian position was lost.
Summary —
New Shahed tactics have restored the value of these cheap weapons to Russia’s battle arsenal. Fewer launches are resulting in more drones getting past the air defenses that earlier, pre modified tactic months involving much higher numbers.
Besides Kyiv, it is key to note other primary targets have been Odesa, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv.
Zaporizhzhia continues to show signs of an effort to get a new Russian offensive off the ground. This appears to be the third battalion sized mechanized assault in the region in the past couple weeks. However, Ukraine’s integrated drone/artillery/anti-tank defensive effort keeps breaking up these assaults. Early detection has also been key. Russian losses in these battles are relatively well documented as the surveillance drones match the action recorded by the FPV attack drones. An attack in the Zaporizhzhia region would first be an effort to reclaim territory retaken by Ukraine a couple of years ago in its botched offensive. More terrain - more leverage in any ceasefire talks.
Terrain capture is becoming important in other areas of the front. For example, after nearly a year of trying to seize Pokrovsk, Russian forces have shifted their attacks to lesser defended areas to the southwest of the city - tactically insignificant except that it is more territory held for Russia.
And speaking of ceasefires, I don’t give much credibility to putin’s reported tastes offer for negotiation.
Final note - if the Black Sea fleet is deploying missile boats into the Black Sea, things there could get interesting soon. The fleet has been pretty much out of the picture for well over a year after losses of key vessels both in port as well as the open sea. One vessel reportedly did venture out a couple weeks ago and fire its missiles.
Ukraine is likely on high alert because the additional missiles, combined with bomber launched assets and Shahed drones, could result in a very punishing attack. Such an attack IMHO could well signal the ‘official’ start of the Russia spring offensive and indicated what the strategic and tactical objectives are.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- New Egypt/Qatar hostage/ceasefire proposal
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Qatar and Egypt have proposed a new deal to end the war in Gaza and free the hostages, the BBC reported on Tuesday, citing a senior Palestinian Arab official familiar with the negotiations.
According to the report, the mediators are proposing a five-to-seven-year halt to hostilities, the release of all Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian Arab prisoners held in Israeli jails, a formal end to the war, and a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.
The Arab official told the BBC that Hamas has indicated that it is prepared to concede governance of Gaza to “any Palestinian entity agreed upon at the national and regional level”. He noted this could be the Judea and Samaria-based Palestinian Authority (PA) or a new administrative body.
The official called the current mediation effort “serious” and said the terror organization had shown “unprecedented flexibility”.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/407188
***
CENTCOM Chief General Kurilla will visit Israel in the coming days to ensure US & Israel are aligned on Iran, Kurilla is known as a strong supporter of attacking Tehran’s nuclear program.
Israeli Air Force intensifies prep for strike in Iran, either independent or jointly with US.
(Israel Radar)
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
IDF fighter jets ended a wave of attacks in the Gaza Strip, during which dozens of tractors used by the murderous terrorist organization Hamas were attacked and destroyed.
Bulldozers, equipment, and trucks were located at the Jabalia Al-Nazla Municipality garage, north of the Gaza Strip.
NOTE - earlier, IAF was targeting white Toyota trucks used by Hamas and displayed proudly at the various hostage release ceremonies.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israeli army: We targeted Islamic Group leader Hussein Atwi in an airstrike in Lebanon.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthis continue to be hammered by US airstrikes. It also appears that the US is hitting areas critical for opposition ground actions to move in from the north and south.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
The Egypt / Qatar ceasefire proposal is just warmed up elements of other failed proposals and is unlikely to go anywhere. Very little to motivate Israel to support.
Israel continues to hit Hama et al and Hezbollah leadership. Given they are targeting vehicles carrying these leaders indicates that they have some incredible HUMINT going on.
Otherwise, I expect Israel to continue to pressure Hamas, keep Hezbollah leaders focusing one eye to the sky and Syria being held in check.
Iran is a growing boil in the region, see below.
Iran –
- May 5th - projected end of negotiation window
***
Putin signs law ratifying strategic partnership agreement with Iran
OBSERVATION - Agreements and treaties with Russia are coming fast and may work to deter any Israeli/US strike options under threat of Russian involvement.
Iran is fully in charge of the ‘negotiations’ and the US seems to be just fine with that. Dangerous
Yet the US continues to pump bombs and possibly ADA related materials into Israel as well as keeping bomb supplies up at Diego Garcia. Could the US being playing rope a dope with Iran, giving them enough rope to hang themselves? IDK
Egypt –
The Egyptian military announced the opening of the joint Chinese-Egyptian exercise “Eagles of Civilization 2025.” For the drill, China brought to Egypt the J-10 (Chengdu) fighter jet, which is considered a 4.5 generation aircraft.
OBSERVATION - China has in recent years been pushing to get greater influence in Africa and in particular Egypt, likely due to the control of the Suez Canal.
Syria -
During a security operation in the Qatana area of Damascus, security forces seized a warehouse containing large quantities of weapons and ammunition, including anti-tank missiles, intended for smuggling outside Syria (likely into Lebanon and to Hezbollah)
Things got crazy this morning, delaying the post. Sorry.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Klaus Schwab’s interim replacement as chairman at the World Economic Forum, is none other than Peter Brabeck-Letmathe — ex-Nestlé CEO, supporter of the 4th Industrial Revolution, food supply poisoner, and the guy who said water isn’t a human right.
Clearly another in a line of James Bond villains - check out his photo
Now add to the intrigue - WSJ reports Klaus Schwab is now under investigation by the WEF, the very organization he founded, for financial fraud and ethical misconduct just a day after stepping down.
***
The World Health Organization has announced a sweeping overhaul following significant U.S. funding cuts and its decision to move forward with the pandemic treaty—without American involvement.
WHO Director-General Tedros Ghebreyesus admitted that the funding blow will force the organization to scale down its program divisions drastically, reducing them from 10 to just four.
The financial strain is so severe that the agency may be forced to lay off up to 40% of its staff.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
May Day - May 1st
(FO) Revolutionary anarchist groups in Seattle, Washington and Portland, Oregon have announced events on 01 May, otherwise known as May Day or International Workers Day.
Portland anarchists announced a picnic from 4:30-7:00pm, while Seattle anarchists announced a bonfire that starts at 5:00pm.
FO OBSERVATION - May Day is historically a popular day/night for Antifa groups to engage in violent and disruptive direct action. Anarchist events that devolve into direct action demonstrations – things like vandalism, arson, and other criminal activity – will typically include messaging like “bring a friend, wear a mask,” implying that direct action will occur. This year’s May Day announcements are pretty bland.
Economy- VERY HIGH Threat - as of April 4, 2025
President Donald Trump said Tuesday he has no plans to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, as the president continued his pressure on the central bank to lower interest rates.
“I have no intention of firing him,” Trump said on April 22 in the Oval Office, after a swearing-in ceremony for new Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Paul Atkins. “I would like to see him be a little more active in terms of his idea to lower interest rates. This is a perfect time to lower interest rates.”
OBSERVATION - Tension between Trump and Powell caused the markets heartburn which has currently receded.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Two U.S. Air Force E-3 “Sentry” Airborne Early Warning and Control Aircraft arrived earlier today in the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area-of-responsibility, from Tinker Air Force Base, Oklahoma.
USAF 79-0001 E-3G Sentry call sign EDGY26 Hex #AE11E7
USAF 75-0556 E-3B Sentry callsign EDGY25 Hex #AE11D6
OBSERVATION - Many observers are noting that the arrival of these aircraft mark a sharp escalation of the preparations for war in the region - most likely targeting Iran. I agree. If this is a joint US / Israel operation, there are going to be a lot of aircraft up in the region and these aircraft will be very necessary to keep things orderly.
***
Airlift continues. At least 8 US Air Force heavy transport aircraft landed yesterday at Nevatim Air Base in southern Israel.
POLITICAL FRONT –
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said Sunday that he will support every sitting House Democrat in the 2026 midterms, pushing back against efforts by Democratic National Committee (DNC) Vice Chair David Hogg to replace several incumbents with younger challengers in upcoming primaries.
During an interview on ABC News’ This Week with Jonathan Karl, Jeffries made it clear he will stand by all Democratic incumbents, regardless of their position on the ideological spectrum.
“Well, I look forward to standing behind every single Democratic incumbent, from the most progressive, to the most centrist, and all points in between,” Jeffries said.
The remarks came just days after Leaders We Deserve — a political organization founded by Hogg in 2023 — announced a $20 million plan aimed at supporting younger Democratic candidates in safe blue districts, even if it means backing primary challengers against sitting Democrats.
The move has sparked significant backlash within the party, particularly among House Democrats who see the effort as undermining unity ahead of critical midterm elections.
OBSERVATION - I’ve been mentioning that there has been a lot of internal fighting within the democrat party over the resistance (or what some see as the lack thereof) to trump. This is just the most recent round. DNC Vice Chair Hogg a few days later did a 180 and said he’d support all candadates, tossing in $100 K for election efforts.
TRUMP Watch –
The White House:
Trump will visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE from May 13 to 16.
OBSERVATION - Potential link with preparations for an Iranian strike - see Israel and Iran below.
China -
China signaled openness to trade talks with the U.S. after Trump suggested cutting tariffs, but warned it won’t negotiate under threats. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said, “We don’t want a trade war, but we’re not afraid of one.” Both sides appear to be softening their tone, though a quick deal remains unlikely.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Fair, temps 50 - 80s with cooling trend towards the end of the period..
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Both U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff are no longer planning to attend tomorrow’s meeting in London with senior officials from NATO and Ukraine. Instead the meeting will be attended alone by President Trump’s Envoy to Ukraine General Keith Kellogg
Ukraine talks in London are postponed after the US pulls out amid Kyiv objections to recognize Russia’s sovereignty over Crimea
Russia launched 134 Shahed drones of which 67 were shot down. Another 47 were lost in location without negative consequences.
There is significant damage in Odesa, Poltava, Kharkiv and Kyiv
Russian losses per 23/04/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff
+1210 men
+8 tanks
+11 AFVs
+85 artillery
+1 MLRS
+1 AD system
Russian Territory –
Russia’s 51st GRAU arsenal suffered a violent series of explosions this yesterday as a mix of stored munitions cooked off. following what appears to have been a large-scale drone attack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The depot appears to have been completely destroyed, with the fireballs and billowing smoke being seen all the way from the outskirts of Moscow.
The facility, just northeast of Moscow, suddenly exploded around 4:00 PM local.
“Many people have their windows blown out. And the explosions are not stopping. There is an ongoing sound of rockets whistling in all directions,” locals report about the attack on the 51th GRAU arsenal. Explosions in Vladimir region heard were over 60+ km away.
NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) shows nearly the entirety of the 51st Main Missile and Artillery Directorate’s (GRAU) Arsenal in the Vladimir Oblast of Western Russia engulfed in flames, following today’s drone attack by Ukraine.
Russia’s 51st GRAU ammo depot in Vladimir Oblast burned through the night and is still on fire. Preliminary estimates suggest up to 80% of stored munitions may have been destroyed.
Summary —
Nasty hit on the Russian ammo depot - one of Russia’s largest ones.
Otherwise, same old same old on the front.
Europe / NATO General –
European Commission: Russia must end its war of aggression, withdraw its forces, and return territory to Ukraine.
Pakistan / India –
New Delhi — At least 26 people were killed and many others injured Tuesday, the vast majority of them tourists, when suspected militants opened fire on civilians in Indian-controlled Kashmir, according to Indian authorities in the region. Tens of thousands of Indian security forces spread out across Kashmir a day after the attack, as police, army and paramilitary forces continued their manhunt for the perpetrators.
The attack took place in South Kashmir’s Pahalgam area, a scenic destination dotted with meadows and glaciers that attracts hundreds of thousands of Indian and foreign tourists every summer.
“Our reports say that two-three militants appeared and opened indiscriminate fire at the tourists,” The Indian Express newspaper quoted a senior police officer as saying, without naming him.
The brutal attack occurred days after an aggressive speech by the Pakistani army chief, who declared: “Those who do not live by Sharia law are not true Pakistanis.”
Prime Minister Modi rushed back to India after the terror attack with his plane avoiding Pakistan airspace.
OBSERVATION - About a year ago tensions were high in this region due to pakistani terrorists that caused India to launch attacks on terrorist bases. Indicators are this group of terrorists have govt backing. Area has been in dispute for decades and this event has the danger of ramping up to a serious military confrontation.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Yesterday’s Egypt/Qatar hostage/ceasefire proposal rejected by Hamas
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Trump: I’ve just spoken to Prime Minister of Israel, Bibi Netanyahu, relative to numerous subjects including Trade, Iran, etc. The call went very well— We are on the same side of every issue.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Israel Hayom, citing sources: The Chief of Staff presented the cabinet ministers with a military plan to continue the operation in Gaza.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
U.S. military strikes in Yemen in recent weeks have killed at least 500 Houthi fighters, including senior commanders, a Saudi newspaper reported on Tuesday, based on interviews with U.S. officials and Yemen’s information minister.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/u-s-military-strikes-yemen/2025/04/22/id/1207838/
***
Houthi fired a ballistic missile at Israel, the first in about four days. It was successfully intercepted.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Israel continues the pressure on Hamas, taking more terrain and hitting more leaders
Lebanon and Syria stable
Iran still on the edge with more US assets positioning into the region. Especially AWACS.
Iran –
- May 5th - projected end of negotiation window Perhaps extended to May 16th due to Trump visit to the region.
***
The United States Treasury issued fresh Iran-related sanctions on Tuesday, the Department’s website showed, amid ongoing talks between the two countries on Tehran’s nuclear program
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said the new U.S. energy sanctions expose the hypocrisy of Washington’s calls for dialogue with Tehran.
***
Trump’s visit to visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE from May 13 to 16 may indicate the extent that he has given Iran an extension of his “window” to negotiate a nuclear weapons deal. Initially estimated to end around May 5th, is unlikely Trump would visit the region after a major airstrike on Iran. This trip is likely to tell these countries as to what is going to happen and some other details necessary to maintain their support for the operation. Qatar is unlikely to be very supportive, as home to the Hamas elites.
Arrival of AWACS to the region is a significant sign that preparations are going forward and that Trump’s delay to give Iran room to negotiate is fast coming to an end.
WAR ALERT
Situation between India and Pakistan is deteriorating. Receiving reports that India is expelling all Pakistanis while the Pakistani army has reportdly gone to full alert status.
These are nuclear armed nations folks, though at this stage nuclear conflict is not anticipated, but potentially a replay of historic Kashmir battles.
If they do not fight to a conventional stalemate....watch for nukes to be used...very dicey.
Let’s hope it disrupts both the grooming gangs in England and the H1-Bs over in the States.
Political theater.
The financial strain is so severe that the agency may be forced to lay off up to 40% of its staff.
GOOD!!!!
This year’s May Day announcements are pretty bland.
Yeah, about that..... When your kids get really quiet all of a sudden, you go check what they're up to because it' s something they know they shouldn't be doing and they're trying to hide it.
OBSERVATION - I’ve been mentioning that there has been a lot of internal fighting within the democrat party over the resistance (or what some see as the lack thereof) to trump. This is just the most recent round. DNC Vice Chair Hogg a few days later did a 180 and said he’d support all candadates, tossing in $100 K for election efforts.
Infighting couldn't happen to a nicer group. I wonder where Hogg is getting the money......
India seems more willing to deal ruthlessly with muslims than we are.
Which is necessary.
This could be a really bad war - sometimes things get out of control quickly. Thanks for the alert.
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