Relatively calm Resurrection Sunday, but things are taking off again like a rocket.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Geneva, Switzerland, 21 April 2025 – Klaus Schwab, Chairman of the Board of Trustees of the World Economic Forum, has informed the Board: “Following my recent announcement, and as I enter my 88th year, I have decided to step down from the position of Chair and as a member of the Board of Trustees, with immediate effect.”
https://www.weforum.org/press/2025/04/world-economic-forum-announces-governance-transition/
OBSERVATION - Schwab had already announced his intention to step down, at the beginning of the month, but it was understood that the process of doing so would stretch on into 2027. At this stage, it’s unclear what has prompted the sudden change from Schwab.
This also throws open the discussion of his successor, now having to be accelerated rather than worked out over the course of the next year.
***
Pope Francis died on Easter Monday, April 21, 2025, at the age of 88 at his residence in the Vatican’s Casa Santa Marta.
“Dearest brothers and sisters, with deep sorrow I must announce the death of our Holy Father Francis. At 7:35 this morning, the Bishop of Rome, Francis, returned to the house of the Father. His entire life was dedicated to the service of the Lord and His Church,” Vatican camerlengo Cardinal Kevin Farrell announced.
OBSERVATION - In poor health, the suddenness came as a surprise following his limited appearance and address on Sunday.
This and Schwab’s sudden announcement has some people wondering if there is a connection.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
May Day - May 1st
Anti-Trump rallies this weekend: produced sparse crowds of mostly older White folks, pre-printed signs, no clever chants. Low-energy protests fizzled out in hours.
OBSERVATION - An attempt to try to keep what ever enthusiasm generated from the “Hands Off” protests of a couple weeks ago. The left’s effort to mobilize is losing ground now.
OTOH, the call for violence continues to grow in some corners of the inter webs like Reddit. The failure of these weekends organized events may increase calls and efforts by the more violent elements to step up their actions.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Apr 21, 2025
- Potential for soon direct conflict with Iran could activate cells in the US.
Threatcon remans the same, only that the US / World is out of the Easter season. Iran situation still looms high.
Economy- VERY HIGH Threat - as of April 4, 2025
Markets still shaky over tariffs, and likely to become a little more unstable with the news of the Pope’s death and Schwab’s immediate resignation from the WEF.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
USS Nimitz (CVN-68) made its first port call since departing its Indo-Pacific deployment, arriving in Guam on Friday.
OBSERVATION - Should things get real spicy, the Nimitz would be sent to the middle east with great haste. How far west it goes could indicate prepositioning for a quick reinforcement of CENTCOM.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Over the weekend, the Supreme Court halted the deportation flights of Tren de Aragua members. It was a 7-2 decision. Only Justices Alito and Thomas dissented.
Earlier this month, USSC ruled was that the president has the authority to invoke the Alien Enemies Act to deport these illegal alien terrorists—members of Tren de Aragua.
For this group in Texas that was about to be shipped out, they claim no options to challenge was afforded to them. The American Civil Liberties Union raced to block these deportations.
OBSERVATION - Justice Alito lit a fire under this decision and well as the supporting justices. In essence, the new pro-illegal wing of the USSC overstepped its jurisdiction, as the case was about to undergo review by the Circuit Court of Appeal and allowed the ACLU to skip over it without allowing any counter argument from the Trump administration. As noted, the USSC had already given its OK for the law to be used, now suddenly has second thoughts. This temporary order has not cleared matters up, but have only muddied the waters even further. The USSC should have stayed in its lane and allowed the appeals court to do its business before jumping in like this.
***
The deep state is in a state of chaos after Pete Hegseth fired three Department of Defense aides who were allegedly involved in the leaking of classified government information earlier this year, along with the departure of Hegseth’s chief of staff from his role following an extended period of turmoil within the agency.
This also has another unconfirmed claim that Hegseth passed on operational information in another Signal chat room.
OBSERVATION - It was known that the pentagon embedded deep state minions were going to go all out to disrupt and stop Hegseth / Trump from changing the power structure there.
Illegal Immigration –
News from Canada that they are becoming inundated by illegals leaving the US and headed for Canada.
China -
Some economic analysts are suggesting that China is in a deflationary downward spiral that could cause its economy to crash should the current tariff levels from Trump are maintained for any significant period of time.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Fair, temps 50 - 80s with cooling trend towards the end of the period..
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia declared a ceasefire for Easter that was only marginally effective as both sides continued fighting, though at apparently lower level in intensity. Russia’s MoD says the “truce” is officially over and combat operations have resumed.
Overnight, Russia once again attacked with Shaheds. Out of 96 drones, 42 were shot down and another 47 were lost in location without negative consequences.
Russian losses per 21/04/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff. A decrease in losses during the ‘truce’.
+670 men
+2 tanks
+2 AFVs
+10 artillery
Kursk -
Ukraine forces are losing more terrain and may soon be pushed back across the border back into Ukraine.
Summary —
Very likely that Russia used the ‘truce’ to reposition forces for impending offensive actions. In truth: in some parts of the front, it never stopped. The so-called “Easter truce” was a PR-stunt than anything else.
Fighting over the past couple days were moderate with casualties reported for Russia less than half the current daily trend.
A number of potential new offensive axises have been bantered around besides Sumy and Zaporizhzhia. Most recent is Kharkiv, which could be a supporting attack for Sumy.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Airstrikes continue to keep the pressure on in Gaza as rumors indicate a much larger ground effort is in the offing.
- Unusual number of C17 flights from the US continue to arrive at Nevatim Airbase.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Israel announced the cancellation of entry visas for 27 parliament members and left-wing activists from France, just two days before their scheduled visit to Israel and territories of the Palestinian Authority, according to a French news agency.
The Interior Ministry confirmed that “it was decided to deny their entry under Section 40 of the Entry Law (Activities against the State), after the reason for their visit became clear.” Israeli officials added that the delegation’s entry was initially approved, but once it became apparent that they intended to cause provocation in Judea and Samaria, Interior Minister Moshe Arbel ordered the cancellation of the approval.
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-77/
***
Israel is considering re-arresting terrorists freed in past hostage deals, following Hamxs’ refusal to advance a new agreement.
***
Something unusual is going on once again, on Easter Sunday a total of 8 C-17A Globemaster IIIs with the U.S. Air Force’s Air Mobility Command (AMC) were tracked flying between Ramstein Air Base in Germany and Nevatim Airbase in Southern Israel, all of which were linked with the transfer of air-defense systems and originated from either Fort Bliss or Fort Cavazos, Texas. Since April 10th, 25 C-17s have landed at Nevatim, with most attached to this same air-defense mission.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
An airstrike by Israeli warplanes targeted the Al-Mawasi area in Khan Yunis, south of the Gaza Strip.
***
Some analysts are indicating that Hamas is hiding in the refugee tent cities and not very willing to come out and confront the IDF. Further indicators are that Hama’s recruitment efforts have brought in a sizable number of young men/children with virtually no experience or training, making it difficult to coordinate ground actions against IDF.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IDF spokesman:
IDF aircraft struck launchers and Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon’s Nabatiya area. The IDF also eliminated Hezbollah’s Head of Engineering in the Al-Adaysa compound. The military called these actions a clear violation of Israeli-Lebanese understandings and a threat to Israeli security.
Hezbollah announces the killing of leader Hussein Nasr in an Israeli raid in southern Lebanon.
***
Lebanese army reports it preempted a Hezbollah rocket attack on Israel by seizing a Hezbollah position and capturing dozens of rockets and launchers.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israeli Chief of Staff: We control “key points” in Syria. Our forces have taken control of vital areas because “Syria has disintegrated.” We do not know how things will develop in Syria
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
A explosion occurred inside Nour Shams camp in Tulkarm, as the Israeli army operation continues.
Israeli security forces operation in the town of Beit Ummar, north of Hebron and in the town of Idhna, west of Hebron
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
US airstrikes continue against Houthi targets
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Lack of progress on hostage releases is triggering Israel to take the ground operation to the next level. Currently controlling 30-40% of Gaza, Israel is likely to move to take control of all of Rafah while expanding areas in the north.
Hezbollah talking tough over the weekend, but is still in a very poor position to do much about Israel. The question is just how serious the Lebanese govt and army are about disarming and disbanding hezbollah.
Iran still on count down IMHO. Some rumor that the US is ‘acting’ out as being willing to negotiate so as not to be seen as the aggressor when they drop the hammer. Israel maintains the right to strike Iran’s nuclear program indecently from the US. Combined, some think this is a psyops ploy against Iran.
Iran –
- May 5th - projected end of negotiation window
***
Saturday’s 4 hour ‘negotiation’ session was once again a nothing burger. Technical working groups for both sides are to work out details on the little that has been agreed to. Iran continues to control the agenda and topics, essentially leading US negotiators around by the nose IMHO. The current framework resembles 0bama’s failed plan than it does Trump’s pronouncements.
Iran is succeeding in its goals to delay, obfuscate and spin the momentum in its favor. Unless Trump has something else up his sleeve, and he may with the unusual number of cargo flights into Israel, this is potentially a massive foreign policy failure.
Turkey –
The head of Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization (MİT), İbrahim Kalın, convened with senior Hamas members on Saturday to discuss aid routes into Gaza, according to JNS.
The agency released a statement condemning Israel following the meeting, accusing it of carrying out “genocidal activities.”
The meeting featured Muhammad Darwish, chairman of the Hamas Shura Council, though the location was not disclosed. According to MİT, the discussion centered on enabling humanitarian assistance to reach Gaza and assessing “efforts to halt Israel’s genocidal activities” while pushing for a “permanent and comprehensive ceasefire.”
“The latest situation in the efforts to halt Israel’s genocidal activities in Gaza and to reach a permanent and comprehensive ceasefire was evaluated,” the agency said, reiterating Ankara’s full support for Hamas’s stance against Israel.
“Turkey will always stand by the people of Gaza, who have shown great determination and patience to protect their lands, despite Israeli attacks targeting civilians and hunger policies implemented to displace the people,” the statement added.
Kalın’s engagement with Hamas comes amid increasingly hostile rhetoric from Turkish leadership, particularly from President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has increased his verbal attacks on Israel since the start of the war in Gaza on October 7, 2023.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/407122
OBSERVATION - Brought up numerous times is why is a NATO ally meeting and pledging support to a terror group? Disturbing is the implication that Turkey may take over supplying weapons and other material to Hamas.
This also has another unconfirmed claim that Hegseth passed on operational information in another Signal chat room.
I see these alleged *leaks* as someone wisely exposing DS operatives for the purposes of getting rid of them.
Knowing 'protesters' are paid hacks takes the 'romance' out of protests. These aren't Americans standing up for thier rights - it's a rent a mob ...
Economy- VERY HIGH Threat - as of April 4, 2025
U.S. stock index futures rose Tuesday, bouncing back after equities tumbled in the previous session, when President Donald Trump’s criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell rattled investors.
All three major indexes ended Monday’s session down more than 2% after Trump redoubled his attacks against Powell for not cutting interest rates, sparking concern about the central bank’s independence and the future monetary policy path.
https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/stocks-corporate-earnings/2025/04/22/id/1207809/
OBSERVATION - Markets continue to be volatile. Gold has shot to new records, near $3500/oz.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is facing round two of a campaign to delegitimize him and try to force him out. New allegation of information leaks have sprung following the expulsion of 3 high level aids in his headquarters over the Signal scandal of a couple weeks ago.
Remember, there were reports shortly after Trump was elected of core elements of the Pentagon conspiring on ways to disrupt and stop Trump actions to reform and eliminate deep state assets. Hegseth poses a huge threat to those deep state assets.
NPR is claiming that Trump is looking for a replacement. Well its NPR. . . . . .
I suspect he will be able to weather this round of attacks as well, as long as he has Trump’s support and externals indicate that to be the case.
TRUMP Watch –
Trump sat with kids at the Easter Egg roll and colored a bunny blue. “I’ve never seen one colored blue” so he decided to do so with the kids.
Illegal Immigration –
Ongoing legal battles over deportations and visa revocations. USSC receiving all kinds of flack for its middle of the night restraining order preventing more Venezuelans from being deported.
China -
The Chinese government on Monday warned other countries against curbing trade with China in order to win a reprieve from American tariffs, promising to retaliate against countries that do so.
The Chinese Ministry of Commerce said it was responding to foreign media reports that President Trump’s administration was trying to pressure other countries on their trade with China as a negotiating tactic.
“Appeasement will not bring peace, and compromise will not earn respect,” the ministry said in a statement. “Seeking so-called exemptions by harming the interests of others for one’s own selfish and shortsighted gains is like negotiating with a tiger for its skin. In the end, it will only lead to a lose-lose situation.”
China “firmly opposes any party reaching a deal at the expense of China’s interests,” it said, adding that China would “resolutely take countermeasures.” (NYT)
OBSERVATION - Economically isolating China has been one of Trump’s goals, and so far it seems to be working. I read that India is now looking to side with the US against China on this. China burned a lot of bridges over the past several years with their bullying and aggression in the S China Sea region and its come back to bite them.
***
China is reporting that the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) drove a Philippine Navy corvette away from the Scarborough Shoal over the weekend. The Philippines denies China’s legality for the maneuver but did not deny the event.
And they wonder why they are not receiving support from countries in the region in their tariff war with the US. . . .
Russia -
*****
Russian President Vladimir Putin has signaled he is open to bilateral talks with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky for the first time since the early stages of the war.
Speaking to Russian state TV on Monday, Putin said Russia has “always looked positively on any peace initiatives. We hope that representatives of the Kyiv regime will feel the same way”.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Putin’s comments indicated a willingness to engage in direct talks with Ukraine about not striking civilian targets.
Zelensky did not respond directly to Putin’s comments, but said Ukraine was “ready for any conversation” that would ensure the safety of civilians.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpq7ywvw1lzo
Kremlin: A viable settlement to the Ukrainian crisis is unlikely to be reached in the short timeframe
OBSERVATION - putin playing his propaganda efforts like a master violinist.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Fair, temps 50 - 80s with cooling trend towards the end of the period..
RUMINT –
Russia has reportedly deployed 6 missile carriers to the Black Sea—total volley up to 46 Kalibrs, monitoring groups say.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight, Russia launched 54 Shahed drones of which 38 were shot down. Another 16 were lost in location.
At this moment, 20 Shaheds are inside Ukrainian airspace mainly heading for Kyiv.
About 26 Shahed-type drones are circling over Black Sea near Odesa with multiple strikes.
NOTE - Ukraine’s numbers are not adding up.
Russian losses per 22/04/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff.
+1130 men
+4 tanks
+19 AFVs
+26 artillery
+1 AD system
This period does’t reflect the Zaporizhzhia action which should show up tomorrow.
Kursk -
Russia forces are maintaining heavy pressures to force remaining Ukraine forces out of Russia.
Kharkiv Front -
At least 12 drone strikes were reported in Kharkiv
Zaporizhzhia Axis -
A massive Russian assault in the Zaporizhzhia axis was crushed by the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade — over 300 troops and 40+ vehicles, including tanks and IFVs, advanced but were spotted early by Ukrainian drones.
Artillery and UAV strikes began 8km out, followed by fierce resistance from infantry using small arms and mortars. After a two-hour battle, 29 enemy vehicles and around 140 troops were destroyed. Not a single Ukrainian position was lost.
Summary —
New Shahed tactics have restored the value of these cheap weapons to Russia’s battle arsenal. Fewer launches are resulting in more drones getting past the air defenses that earlier, pre modified tactic months involving much higher numbers.
Besides Kyiv, it is key to note other primary targets have been Odesa, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv.
Zaporizhzhia continues to show signs of an effort to get a new Russian offensive off the ground. This appears to be the third battalion sized mechanized assault in the region in the past couple weeks. However, Ukraine’s integrated drone/artillery/anti-tank defensive effort keeps breaking up these assaults. Early detection has also been key. Russian losses in these battles are relatively well documented as the surveillance drones match the action recorded by the FPV attack drones. An attack in the Zaporizhzhia region would first be an effort to reclaim territory retaken by Ukraine a couple of years ago in its botched offensive. More terrain - more leverage in any ceasefire talks.
Terrain capture is becoming important in other areas of the front. For example, after nearly a year of trying to seize Pokrovsk, Russian forces have shifted their attacks to lesser defended areas to the southwest of the city - tactically insignificant except that it is more territory held for Russia.
And speaking of ceasefires, I don’t give much credibility to putin’s reported tastes offer for negotiation.
Final note - if the Black Sea fleet is deploying missile boats into the Black Sea, things there could get interesting soon. The fleet has been pretty much out of the picture for well over a year after losses of key vessels both in port as well as the open sea. One vessel reportedly did venture out a couple weeks ago and fire its missiles.
Ukraine is likely on high alert because the additional missiles, combined with bomber launched assets and Shahed drones, could result in a very punishing attack. Such an attack IMHO could well signal the ‘official’ start of the Russia spring offensive and indicated what the strategic and tactical objectives are.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- New Egypt/Qatar hostage/ceasefire proposal
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Qatar and Egypt have proposed a new deal to end the war in Gaza and free the hostages, the BBC reported on Tuesday, citing a senior Palestinian Arab official familiar with the negotiations.
According to the report, the mediators are proposing a five-to-seven-year halt to hostilities, the release of all Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian Arab prisoners held in Israeli jails, a formal end to the war, and a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.
The Arab official told the BBC that Hamas has indicated that it is prepared to concede governance of Gaza to “any Palestinian entity agreed upon at the national and regional level”. He noted this could be the Judea and Samaria-based Palestinian Authority (PA) or a new administrative body.
The official called the current mediation effort “serious” and said the terror organization had shown “unprecedented flexibility”.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/407188
***
CENTCOM Chief General Kurilla will visit Israel in the coming days to ensure US & Israel are aligned on Iran, Kurilla is known as a strong supporter of attacking Tehran’s nuclear program.
Israeli Air Force intensifies prep for strike in Iran, either independent or jointly with US.
(Israel Radar)
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
IDF fighter jets ended a wave of attacks in the Gaza Strip, during which dozens of tractors used by the murderous terrorist organization Hamas were attacked and destroyed.
Bulldozers, equipment, and trucks were located at the Jabalia Al-Nazla Municipality garage, north of the Gaza Strip.
NOTE - earlier, IAF was targeting white Toyota trucks used by Hamas and displayed proudly at the various hostage release ceremonies.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israeli army: We targeted Islamic Group leader Hussein Atwi in an airstrike in Lebanon.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthis continue to be hammered by US airstrikes. It also appears that the US is hitting areas critical for opposition ground actions to move in from the north and south.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
The Egypt / Qatar ceasefire proposal is just warmed up elements of other failed proposals and is unlikely to go anywhere. Very little to motivate Israel to support.
Israel continues to hit Hama et al and Hezbollah leadership. Given they are targeting vehicles carrying these leaders indicates that they have some incredible HUMINT going on.
Otherwise, I expect Israel to continue to pressure Hamas, keep Hezbollah leaders focusing one eye to the sky and Syria being held in check.
Iran is a growing boil in the region, see below.
Iran –
- May 5th - projected end of negotiation window
***
Putin signs law ratifying strategic partnership agreement with Iran
OBSERVATION - Agreements and treaties with Russia are coming fast and may work to deter any Israeli/US strike options under threat of Russian involvement.
Iran is fully in charge of the ‘negotiations’ and the US seems to be just fine with that. Dangerous
Yet the US continues to pump bombs and possibly ADA related materials into Israel as well as keeping bomb supplies up at Diego Garcia. Could the US being playing rope a dope with Iran, giving them enough rope to hang themselves? IDK
Egypt –
The Egyptian military announced the opening of the joint Chinese-Egyptian exercise “Eagles of Civilization 2025.” For the drill, China brought to Egypt the J-10 (Chengdu) fighter jet, which is considered a 4.5 generation aircraft.
OBSERVATION - China has in recent years been pushing to get greater influence in Africa and in particular Egypt, likely due to the control of the Suez Canal.
Syria -
During a security operation in the Qatana area of Damascus, security forces seized a warehouse containing large quantities of weapons and ammunition, including anti-tank missiles, intended for smuggling outside Syria (likely into Lebanon and to Hezbollah)