Economy- VERY HIGH Threat - as of April 4, 2025
U.S. stock index futures rose Tuesday, bouncing back after equities tumbled in the previous session, when President Donald Trump’s criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell rattled investors.
All three major indexes ended Monday’s session down more than 2% after Trump redoubled his attacks against Powell for not cutting interest rates, sparking concern about the central bank’s independence and the future monetary policy path.
https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/stocks-corporate-earnings/2025/04/22/id/1207809/
OBSERVATION - Markets continue to be volatile. Gold has shot to new records, near $3500/oz.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is facing round two of a campaign to delegitimize him and try to force him out. New allegation of information leaks have sprung following the expulsion of 3 high level aids in his headquarters over the Signal scandal of a couple weeks ago.
Remember, there were reports shortly after Trump was elected of core elements of the Pentagon conspiring on ways to disrupt and stop Trump actions to reform and eliminate deep state assets. Hegseth poses a huge threat to those deep state assets.
NPR is claiming that Trump is looking for a replacement. Well its NPR. . . . . .
I suspect he will be able to weather this round of attacks as well, as long as he has Trump’s support and externals indicate that to be the case.
TRUMP Watch –
Trump sat with kids at the Easter Egg roll and colored a bunny blue. “I’ve never seen one colored blue” so he decided to do so with the kids.
Illegal Immigration –
Ongoing legal battles over deportations and visa revocations. USSC receiving all kinds of flack for its middle of the night restraining order preventing more Venezuelans from being deported.
China -
The Chinese government on Monday warned other countries against curbing trade with China in order to win a reprieve from American tariffs, promising to retaliate against countries that do so.
The Chinese Ministry of Commerce said it was responding to foreign media reports that President Trump’s administration was trying to pressure other countries on their trade with China as a negotiating tactic.
“Appeasement will not bring peace, and compromise will not earn respect,” the ministry said in a statement. “Seeking so-called exemptions by harming the interests of others for one’s own selfish and shortsighted gains is like negotiating with a tiger for its skin. In the end, it will only lead to a lose-lose situation.”
China “firmly opposes any party reaching a deal at the expense of China’s interests,” it said, adding that China would “resolutely take countermeasures.” (NYT)
OBSERVATION - Economically isolating China has been one of Trump’s goals, and so far it seems to be working. I read that India is now looking to side with the US against China on this. China burned a lot of bridges over the past several years with their bullying and aggression in the S China Sea region and its come back to bite them.
***
China is reporting that the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) drove a Philippine Navy corvette away from the Scarborough Shoal over the weekend. The Philippines denies China’s legality for the maneuver but did not deny the event.
And they wonder why they are not receiving support from countries in the region in their tariff war with the US. . . .
Russia -
*****
Russian President Vladimir Putin has signaled he is open to bilateral talks with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky for the first time since the early stages of the war.
Speaking to Russian state TV on Monday, Putin said Russia has “always looked positively on any peace initiatives. We hope that representatives of the Kyiv regime will feel the same way”.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Putin’s comments indicated a willingness to engage in direct talks with Ukraine about not striking civilian targets.
Zelensky did not respond directly to Putin’s comments, but said Ukraine was “ready for any conversation” that would ensure the safety of civilians.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpq7ywvw1lzo
Kremlin: A viable settlement to the Ukrainian crisis is unlikely to be reached in the short timeframe
OBSERVATION - putin playing his propaganda efforts like a master violinist.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Fair, temps 50 - 80s with cooling trend towards the end of the period..
RUMINT –
Russia has reportedly deployed 6 missile carriers to the Black Sea—total volley up to 46 Kalibrs, monitoring groups say.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight, Russia launched 54 Shahed drones of which 38 were shot down. Another 16 were lost in location.
At this moment, 20 Shaheds are inside Ukrainian airspace mainly heading for Kyiv.
About 26 Shahed-type drones are circling over Black Sea near Odesa with multiple strikes.
NOTE - Ukraine’s numbers are not adding up.
Russian losses per 22/04/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff.
+1130 men
+4 tanks
+19 AFVs
+26 artillery
+1 AD system
This period does’t reflect the Zaporizhzhia action which should show up tomorrow.
Kursk -
Russia forces are maintaining heavy pressures to force remaining Ukraine forces out of Russia.
Kharkiv Front -
At least 12 drone strikes were reported in Kharkiv
Zaporizhzhia Axis -
A massive Russian assault in the Zaporizhzhia axis was crushed by the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade — over 300 troops and 40+ vehicles, including tanks and IFVs, advanced but were spotted early by Ukrainian drones.
Artillery and UAV strikes began 8km out, followed by fierce resistance from infantry using small arms and mortars. After a two-hour battle, 29 enemy vehicles and around 140 troops were destroyed. Not a single Ukrainian position was lost.
Summary —
New Shahed tactics have restored the value of these cheap weapons to Russia’s battle arsenal. Fewer launches are resulting in more drones getting past the air defenses that earlier, pre modified tactic months involving much higher numbers.
Besides Kyiv, it is key to note other primary targets have been Odesa, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv.
Zaporizhzhia continues to show signs of an effort to get a new Russian offensive off the ground. This appears to be the third battalion sized mechanized assault in the region in the past couple weeks. However, Ukraine’s integrated drone/artillery/anti-tank defensive effort keeps breaking up these assaults. Early detection has also been key. Russian losses in these battles are relatively well documented as the surveillance drones match the action recorded by the FPV attack drones. An attack in the Zaporizhzhia region would first be an effort to reclaim territory retaken by Ukraine a couple of years ago in its botched offensive. More terrain - more leverage in any ceasefire talks.
Terrain capture is becoming important in other areas of the front. For example, after nearly a year of trying to seize Pokrovsk, Russian forces have shifted their attacks to lesser defended areas to the southwest of the city - tactically insignificant except that it is more territory held for Russia.
And speaking of ceasefires, I don’t give much credibility to putin’s reported tastes offer for negotiation.
Final note - if the Black Sea fleet is deploying missile boats into the Black Sea, things there could get interesting soon. The fleet has been pretty much out of the picture for well over a year after losses of key vessels both in port as well as the open sea. One vessel reportedly did venture out a couple weeks ago and fire its missiles.
Ukraine is likely on high alert because the additional missiles, combined with bomber launched assets and Shahed drones, could result in a very punishing attack. Such an attack IMHO could well signal the ‘official’ start of the Russia spring offensive and indicated what the strategic and tactical objectives are.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- New Egypt/Qatar hostage/ceasefire proposal
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Qatar and Egypt have proposed a new deal to end the war in Gaza and free the hostages, the BBC reported on Tuesday, citing a senior Palestinian Arab official familiar with the negotiations.
According to the report, the mediators are proposing a five-to-seven-year halt to hostilities, the release of all Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian Arab prisoners held in Israeli jails, a formal end to the war, and a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.
The Arab official told the BBC that Hamas has indicated that it is prepared to concede governance of Gaza to “any Palestinian entity agreed upon at the national and regional level”. He noted this could be the Judea and Samaria-based Palestinian Authority (PA) or a new administrative body.
The official called the current mediation effort “serious” and said the terror organization had shown “unprecedented flexibility”.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/407188
***
CENTCOM Chief General Kurilla will visit Israel in the coming days to ensure US & Israel are aligned on Iran, Kurilla is known as a strong supporter of attacking Tehran’s nuclear program.
Israeli Air Force intensifies prep for strike in Iran, either independent or jointly with US.
(Israel Radar)
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
IDF fighter jets ended a wave of attacks in the Gaza Strip, during which dozens of tractors used by the murderous terrorist organization Hamas were attacked and destroyed.
Bulldozers, equipment, and trucks were located at the Jabalia Al-Nazla Municipality garage, north of the Gaza Strip.
NOTE - earlier, IAF was targeting white Toyota trucks used by Hamas and displayed proudly at the various hostage release ceremonies.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israeli army: We targeted Islamic Group leader Hussein Atwi in an airstrike in Lebanon.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthis continue to be hammered by US airstrikes. It also appears that the US is hitting areas critical for opposition ground actions to move in from the north and south.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
The Egypt / Qatar ceasefire proposal is just warmed up elements of other failed proposals and is unlikely to go anywhere. Very little to motivate Israel to support.
Israel continues to hit Hama et al and Hezbollah leadership. Given they are targeting vehicles carrying these leaders indicates that they have some incredible HUMINT going on.
Otherwise, I expect Israel to continue to pressure Hamas, keep Hezbollah leaders focusing one eye to the sky and Syria being held in check.
Iran is a growing boil in the region, see below.
Iran –
- May 5th - projected end of negotiation window
***
Putin signs law ratifying strategic partnership agreement with Iran
OBSERVATION - Agreements and treaties with Russia are coming fast and may work to deter any Israeli/US strike options under threat of Russian involvement.
Iran is fully in charge of the ‘negotiations’ and the US seems to be just fine with that. Dangerous
Yet the US continues to pump bombs and possibly ADA related materials into Israel as well as keeping bomb supplies up at Diego Garcia. Could the US being playing rope a dope with Iran, giving them enough rope to hang themselves? IDK
Egypt –
The Egyptian military announced the opening of the joint Chinese-Egyptian exercise “Eagles of Civilization 2025.” For the drill, China brought to Egypt the J-10 (Chengdu) fighter jet, which is considered a 4.5 generation aircraft.
OBSERVATION - China has in recent years been pushing to get greater influence in Africa and in particular Egypt, likely due to the control of the Suez Canal.
Syria -
During a security operation in the Qatana area of Damascus, security forces seized a warehouse containing large quantities of weapons and ammunition, including anti-tank missiles, intended for smuggling outside Syria (likely into Lebanon and to Hezbollah)
Things got crazy this morning, delaying the post. Sorry.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Klaus Schwab’s interim replacement as chairman at the World Economic Forum, is none other than Peter Brabeck-Letmathe — ex-Nestlé CEO, supporter of the 4th Industrial Revolution, food supply poisoner, and the guy who said water isn’t a human right.
Clearly another in a line of James Bond villains - check out his photo
Now add to the intrigue - WSJ reports Klaus Schwab is now under investigation by the WEF, the very organization he founded, for financial fraud and ethical misconduct just a day after stepping down.
***
The World Health Organization has announced a sweeping overhaul following significant U.S. funding cuts and its decision to move forward with the pandemic treaty—without American involvement.
WHO Director-General Tedros Ghebreyesus admitted that the funding blow will force the organization to scale down its program divisions drastically, reducing them from 10 to just four.
The financial strain is so severe that the agency may be forced to lay off up to 40% of its staff.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
May Day - May 1st
(FO) Revolutionary anarchist groups in Seattle, Washington and Portland, Oregon have announced events on 01 May, otherwise known as May Day or International Workers Day.
Portland anarchists announced a picnic from 4:30-7:00pm, while Seattle anarchists announced a bonfire that starts at 5:00pm.
FO OBSERVATION - May Day is historically a popular day/night for Antifa groups to engage in violent and disruptive direct action. Anarchist events that devolve into direct action demonstrations – things like vandalism, arson, and other criminal activity – will typically include messaging like “bring a friend, wear a mask,” implying that direct action will occur. This year’s May Day announcements are pretty bland.
Economy- VERY HIGH Threat - as of April 4, 2025
President Donald Trump said Tuesday he has no plans to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, as the president continued his pressure on the central bank to lower interest rates.
“I have no intention of firing him,” Trump said on April 22 in the Oval Office, after a swearing-in ceremony for new Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Paul Atkins. “I would like to see him be a little more active in terms of his idea to lower interest rates. This is a perfect time to lower interest rates.”
OBSERVATION - Tension between Trump and Powell caused the markets heartburn which has currently receded.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Two U.S. Air Force E-3 “Sentry” Airborne Early Warning and Control Aircraft arrived earlier today in the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area-of-responsibility, from Tinker Air Force Base, Oklahoma.
USAF 79-0001 E-3G Sentry call sign EDGY26 Hex #AE11E7
USAF 75-0556 E-3B Sentry callsign EDGY25 Hex #AE11D6
OBSERVATION - Many observers are noting that the arrival of these aircraft mark a sharp escalation of the preparations for war in the region - most likely targeting Iran. I agree. If this is a joint US / Israel operation, there are going to be a lot of aircraft up in the region and these aircraft will be very necessary to keep things orderly.
***
Airlift continues. At least 8 US Air Force heavy transport aircraft landed yesterday at Nevatim Air Base in southern Israel.
POLITICAL FRONT –
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said Sunday that he will support every sitting House Democrat in the 2026 midterms, pushing back against efforts by Democratic National Committee (DNC) Vice Chair David Hogg to replace several incumbents with younger challengers in upcoming primaries.
During an interview on ABC News’ This Week with Jonathan Karl, Jeffries made it clear he will stand by all Democratic incumbents, regardless of their position on the ideological spectrum.
“Well, I look forward to standing behind every single Democratic incumbent, from the most progressive, to the most centrist, and all points in between,” Jeffries said.
The remarks came just days after Leaders We Deserve — a political organization founded by Hogg in 2023 — announced a $20 million plan aimed at supporting younger Democratic candidates in safe blue districts, even if it means backing primary challengers against sitting Democrats.
The move has sparked significant backlash within the party, particularly among House Democrats who see the effort as undermining unity ahead of critical midterm elections.
OBSERVATION - I’ve been mentioning that there has been a lot of internal fighting within the democrat party over the resistance (or what some see as the lack thereof) to trump. This is just the most recent round. DNC Vice Chair Hogg a few days later did a 180 and said he’d support all candadates, tossing in $100 K for election efforts.
TRUMP Watch –
The White House:
Trump will visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE from May 13 to 16.
OBSERVATION - Potential link with preparations for an Iranian strike - see Israel and Iran below.
China -
China signaled openness to trade talks with the U.S. after Trump suggested cutting tariffs, but warned it won’t negotiate under threats. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said, “We don’t want a trade war, but we’re not afraid of one.” Both sides appear to be softening their tone, though a quick deal remains unlikely.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Fair, temps 50 - 80s with cooling trend towards the end of the period..
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Both U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff are no longer planning to attend tomorrow’s meeting in London with senior officials from NATO and Ukraine. Instead the meeting will be attended alone by President Trump’s Envoy to Ukraine General Keith Kellogg
Ukraine talks in London are postponed after the US pulls out amid Kyiv objections to recognize Russia’s sovereignty over Crimea
Russia launched 134 Shahed drones of which 67 were shot down. Another 47 were lost in location without negative consequences.
There is significant damage in Odesa, Poltava, Kharkiv and Kyiv
Russian losses per 23/04/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff
+1210 men
+8 tanks
+11 AFVs
+85 artillery
+1 MLRS
+1 AD system
Russian Territory –
Russia’s 51st GRAU arsenal suffered a violent series of explosions this yesterday as a mix of stored munitions cooked off. following what appears to have been a large-scale drone attack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The depot appears to have been completely destroyed, with the fireballs and billowing smoke being seen all the way from the outskirts of Moscow.
The facility, just northeast of Moscow, suddenly exploded around 4:00 PM local.
“Many people have their windows blown out. And the explosions are not stopping. There is an ongoing sound of rockets whistling in all directions,” locals report about the attack on the 51th GRAU arsenal. Explosions in Vladimir region heard were over 60+ km away.
NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) shows nearly the entirety of the 51st Main Missile and Artillery Directorate’s (GRAU) Arsenal in the Vladimir Oblast of Western Russia engulfed in flames, following today’s drone attack by Ukraine.
Russia’s 51st GRAU ammo depot in Vladimir Oblast burned through the night and is still on fire. Preliminary estimates suggest up to 80% of stored munitions may have been destroyed.
Summary —
Nasty hit on the Russian ammo depot - one of Russia’s largest ones.
Otherwise, same old same old on the front.
Europe / NATO General –
European Commission: Russia must end its war of aggression, withdraw its forces, and return territory to Ukraine.
Pakistan / India –
New Delhi — At least 26 people were killed and many others injured Tuesday, the vast majority of them tourists, when suspected militants opened fire on civilians in Indian-controlled Kashmir, according to Indian authorities in the region. Tens of thousands of Indian security forces spread out across Kashmir a day after the attack, as police, army and paramilitary forces continued their manhunt for the perpetrators.
The attack took place in South Kashmir’s Pahalgam area, a scenic destination dotted with meadows and glaciers that attracts hundreds of thousands of Indian and foreign tourists every summer.
“Our reports say that two-three militants appeared and opened indiscriminate fire at the tourists,” The Indian Express newspaper quoted a senior police officer as saying, without naming him.
The brutal attack occurred days after an aggressive speech by the Pakistani army chief, who declared: “Those who do not live by Sharia law are not true Pakistanis.”
Prime Minister Modi rushed back to India after the terror attack with his plane avoiding Pakistan airspace.
OBSERVATION - About a year ago tensions were high in this region due to pakistani terrorists that caused India to launch attacks on terrorist bases. Indicators are this group of terrorists have govt backing. Area has been in dispute for decades and this event has the danger of ramping up to a serious military confrontation.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Yesterday’s Egypt/Qatar hostage/ceasefire proposal rejected by Hamas
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Trump: I’ve just spoken to Prime Minister of Israel, Bibi Netanyahu, relative to numerous subjects including Trade, Iran, etc. The call went very well— We are on the same side of every issue.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Israel Hayom, citing sources: The Chief of Staff presented the cabinet ministers with a military plan to continue the operation in Gaza.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
U.S. military strikes in Yemen in recent weeks have killed at least 500 Houthi fighters, including senior commanders, a Saudi newspaper reported on Tuesday, based on interviews with U.S. officials and Yemen’s information minister.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/u-s-military-strikes-yemen/2025/04/22/id/1207838/
***
Houthi fired a ballistic missile at Israel, the first in about four days. It was successfully intercepted.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Israel continues the pressure on Hamas, taking more terrain and hitting more leaders
Lebanon and Syria stable
Iran still on the edge with more US assets positioning into the region. Especially AWACS.
Iran –
- May 5th - projected end of negotiation window Perhaps extended to May 16th due to Trump visit to the region.
***
The United States Treasury issued fresh Iran-related sanctions on Tuesday, the Department’s website showed, amid ongoing talks between the two countries on Tehran’s nuclear program
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said the new U.S. energy sanctions expose the hypocrisy of Washington’s calls for dialogue with Tehran.
***
Trump’s visit to visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE from May 13 to 16 may indicate the extent that he has given Iran an extension of his “window” to negotiate a nuclear weapons deal. Initially estimated to end around May 5th, is unlikely Trump would visit the region after a major airstrike on Iran. This trip is likely to tell these countries as to what is going to happen and some other details necessary to maintain their support for the operation. Qatar is unlikely to be very supportive, as home to the Hamas elites.
Arrival of AWACS to the region is a significant sign that preparations are going forward and that Trump’s delay to give Iran room to negotiate is fast coming to an end.