Posted on 01/01/2025 6:44:53 AM PST by Godzilla
Welcome to Threat Matrix 2025
For historical reference TM2024 link is
https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4207046/posts?q=1&;page=1#1
Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 24th year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.
2024 has been “historic”: - The landslide election of Trump back into the Whitehouse, and the collapse of the massive lawfare effort against him. - Assassination attempts on Trump - Stunning defeat of Hamas and Hezbollah by Israel - Israel directly hits Iran after Iranian missile strikes, eliminating Iranian missile production capabilities for several years as well as destroying most of its air defense assets. - The almost overnight overthrow of Syria’s Assad and the associated serious losses to Russia and Iran/Hezbollah
I expect 2025 to be even worse as we are facing: - Massive political infighting as the Swamp tries to thwart the Trump agenda - Potential for civil unrest and violence driven by the communist left and Antifa affiliated elements. - Potential violence as Trump implements is deportation plan for millions of illegals. - The potential for a serious and deep recession - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - Combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Russian nuclear threats - China making a move on Taiwan - Israel and Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems.
It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.
For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.
How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.
Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.
My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose – even more so following 2022.
So buckle up for the ride. This is an open thread that I want to continue as a clearing house of tidbits of intelligence contributed by the FR community so that we are all aware of what’s happening and what the impacts of those events will be. Knowledge is power
The FBI needs to get their computer people to start looking for 'lone wolves' among the liberal haters. If they don't people will start to wonder if rogue agents were in on the assassination attempts on Trump...
Zelenskyy is risking Ukraine being nuked by Russia... World War III? If Zelensky doesn't want to work with us we're NOT going to die for him.... he can die for himself.
Tomorrow may be a shorter post - have early morning requirements
There will be no post Monday as I will be getting a routine medical procedure that occurs every 5 years first thing in the morning.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Globalist European nations convulsing over Trump’s stand in the press conference yesterday.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
The apparent break with Ukraine may set off some pro-Ukraine protests this weekend. However, the potential for violence is low. Some leftist elements may attempt to hijack elements to forge more anti-Trump sentiments that can be used for other, more violent, actions.
Again, weekly protests on a variety of issues expected in cities across the US. Threat of violence continues to be low but some localized incidents may happen. Situational awareness is critical.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025
MARCH 15, 2025 - CR runs out on funding the govt.
***
California’s cage-free chicken regulation in the midst of a bird flu pandemic has driven the cost of a dozen eggs above $10 in the state - far above the cost in other areas of the U.S. - the USDA reports.
A USDA press release published Wednesday on efforts to combat high prices nationwide describes the inflationary impact of California’s “recent regulatory burdens” on the cost of eggs in the state:
“USDA will educate consumers and Congress on the need to fix the problem of geographical price differences for eggs, such as in California, where recent regulatory burdens, in addition to avian flu, have resulted in the price of eggs being 60% higher than other regions of the country.”
California’s Proposition 12, which went into effect in 2022, requires that all eggs sold in the state come from cage-free hens, including eggs imported from other states.
Egg prices in the state spiked dramatically over the next year, and cost consumers $23 million annually, Food Dive reported in February of 2023, noting Californians lost access to eggs from about two-thirds of the nation’s egg-laying flocks:
“After California’s law, known as Proposition 12, took effect, egg prices in that state increased dramatically. Californians paid $5.62 for a dozen eggs in early February, compared to $3.05 for non-cage free eggs in the Midwest, according to The Wall Street Journal.
“Research published in the American Journal of Agricultural Economics projected the law will result in an annual loss of $23 million for consumers in the state.
“Currently cage-free eggs make up 34.6% of the total egg-laying flocks in the U.S., according to WATT Poultry.”
https://mrctv.org/blog/craig-bannister/californias-cage-free-egg-reg-causes-prices-crack-10-dozen
OBSERVATION - This stresses other states as well, even though they don’t have the free range requirements. Competition for replacement egg laying hens will remain high, keeping prices high for the near term. Until the govt finds some way of addressing bird flu other than the mass destruction of flocks the chicken/egg market will remain stressed and costly.
POLITICAL FRONT –
MARCH 15, 2025 - CR runs out on funding the govt.
Watching weekend maneuvering on key political items, such as the Epstine documents, illegal immigration, and the budget bill. I expect a lot of bloviation regarding Ukraine on the talking heads Sunday shows.
INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –
The State Department is ending its support for Ukraine’s power grid restoration
***
Senior U.S. official says clash between Zelenskiy and Trump will likely accelerate efforts to investigate waste, fraud, and abuse in U.S. aid to Ukraine
***
Adversarial governments to the United States, including in Russia and China, are attempting to hire former federal employees who have been fired from the Trump administration after thousands of employees have been let go since President Donald Trump took office, according to CNN.
The outlet reported that four sources familiar with US intelligence being gathered on the issue said that Russia and China have been making a concerted effort to recruit those who feel they have been targeted by the administration because of getting fired or those that fear they will be fired.
“It doesn’t take a lot of imagination to see that these cast aside federal workers with a wealth of institutional knowledge represent staggeringly attractive targets to the intelligence services of our competitors and adversaries,” one source told the outlet.
Another source told reporters at CNN that China and Russia think that the staffers “are at their most vulnerable right now,” that they are “out of a job [and] bitter about being fired.”
TRUMP Watch –
February went out with a massive explosion. Ukraine’s Zelensky came to the WH with one simple task - sign a minerals agreement that would be a component to ending the war with Russia. Then he stepped on himself -
A press briefing in the Oval Office with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy turned into an all-out brawl of words, with President Donald Trump warning the European leader that he is “gambling with World War III.”
The escalation began after Zelenskyy repeatedly interrupted the President, delivered back-handed remarks, and backed out of agreeing to a ceasefire in front of reporters.
Vice President JD Vance admonished the Ukrainian President for showing clear disrespect to the United States and its leadership.
“Do you think that it’s respectful to come to the Oval Office of the United States of America and attack the administration that is trying to prevent the destruction of your country?” Vance cautioned after being questioned by Zelenskyy in the public briefing.
Zelenskyy fired back with a warning to the United States, insisting that while America has “a nice ocean” separating them from the war with Russia as opposed to Europe, “you will feel it in the future.”
“Don’t tell us what we’re going to feel,” Trump responded strongly. “We’re trying to solve a problem… Remember this: you’re in no position to dictate what we’re going to feel… You’re right now, not in a very good position. You don’t have the cards right now with us.”
“I’m not playing cards right now,” Zelenskyy rebuked, later scolding the American leaders for “speak[ing] very loudly.”
“You are playing cards,” Trump asserted. “You’re gambling with the lives of millions of people. You’re gambling with World War III, and what you’re doing is very disrespectful to the country, this country…”
Zelenskyy was also heard calling Vance a “b!tch” in Ukrainian.
Trump then commenced to show Zelenskyy door and had them ushered straight out of the WH.
Trump says Zelensky can “come back when he is ready.” “We had a very meaningful meeting in the White House today. Much was learned that could never be understood without conversation under such fire and pressure. It’s amazing what comes out through emotion, and I have determined that President Zelenskyy is not ready for Peace if America is involved, because he feels our involvement gives him a big advantage in negotiations. I don’t want advantage, I want PEACE. He disrespected the United States of America in its cherished Oval Office. He can come back when he is ready for Peace.”
***
Zelensky in an interview with Fox News.
He says he doesn’t think he did anything wrong during the exchange with Trump and therefore doesn’t feel the need to apologize to him.
The ultimate question, as Baier rightly asked, is how does this all end? Zelenskyy’s response was nothing short of stunning: “I think Europe is ready to help us with financing a big army... now we want just to find a place for our biggest strategic partner. We don’t have enough weapon to push them out and we don’t see now very big volume of new support from the United States, with all due respect, again. With security guarantee, we will be ready.”
This shows a breathtaking lack of self-awareness. Trump has long made it clear he has no interest in being Ukraine’s bank to fund an endless war that Ukraine can’t win. As Trump said in the meeting, without the aid and military equipment from the United States, the war would have ended in two weeks—and not to Ukraine’s benefit.
One thing is for sure: This is not 2022, and Americans are no longer interested in spending billions of dollars to fund Ukraine’s war effort, and yet he still wants more money.
***
“Trump had largely acquiesced to a very Ukraine-friendly deal over the last few days (including lowering the repayment amount to just $90 billion). The negotiations were over. All the Ukrainian president had to do was show up, shake hands, smile for the cameras, and sign the deal. Zelensky attempt to lecture Trump and Vance for the cameras was an ego move that he didn’t have the leverage to pull off.
By trying to embarrass and undermine the U.S. president in public, he destroyed an already frayed relationship. In doing so, he might have cost his country its war. “
OBSERVATION - Unbelievable and hard to even figure out where to begin.
Zelensky decided it’d be a great idea to try to publicly embarrass Trump and Vice President JD Vance in front of the press. He was way out of his league.
The minerals deal was a block in the efforts to end the war, giving the US a level of skin in the game that could be leveraged against putin / Russia. Zelensky wanted more blank checks for the war.
Now the ball is squarely in Europe’s court, Trump has told them time and again they have to step up for their defense needs and now it is go time for them. I don’t think Trump had this outcome planned or desired, but that is one of his goals.
Domestically, expect shrieking and gnashing of teeth by the globalists / neocons over how we’ve surrendered to Russia or something similar.
ONE LAST THING - Ukraine collaborated with the biden crime family in a significant manner over the past nearly 20 years, even resulting in an impeachment of Trump over investigation the biden involvement in criminal businesses. I think that Trump has attempted to be an honest broker going beyond this, but that attempt was broken by Zelensky.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying from single digits to the low 30s range, partly to mostly cloudy.
***
The Trump administration is considering ending all ongoing shipments of military aid to Ukraine in response to Zelensky’s remarks in the Oval Office on Friday and his perceived intransigence in the peace process, per senior administration official, - Washington Post
***
President Zelensky just got off the phone with French President Macron and now is talking to NATO secretary general Rutte.
Zelensky arrived in London this morning for high-level talks with European governments.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Beside Zelensky’s blow up at the WH -
Russia launched 154 drones. A total of 103 were shot down and another 51 were suppressed by electronic warfare.
Russian losses per 01/03/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff
+1050 men
+11 tanks
+15 AFVs
+81 artillery pieces
+1 MLRS
+1 AD systems
+107 service vehicles
Russian drones did hit Odesa and 12 Russian suicide drones on the power plant of the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv.
This brings into question the effectiveness of Russian drone reports.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Skudne and Burlatske of Donetsk region of Ukraine
Summary —
I stated yesterday -
“Politics of a ceasefire continue. Results of todays’ talks will be very important.”
We’ve seen the ‘results’ of yesterday’s talks. Zelensky totally screwed the pooch. The bigger issue to Ukraine is what will happen domestically from his diplomatic disaster? What impacts on the military and its morale in holding the line? Will Zelensky face impeachment/removal or a snap election?
On the front so far things have essentially stagnated, Russia has lost the initiative and momentum for the most part. Still throwing massive numbers of Shaheds.
However, monitoring to see if the lowered activity is reflective of Russia redeploying forces to focus on the Kostyantynivka sector and drawing down from the Pokrovsk sector. Russia has lost a lot of assets over the past few months and gained limited terrain in the effort, it may take a bit of time to reconstitute forces for a new offensive target.
Europe / NATO General –
With the exception of Hungary, there was a united howl of support for Ukraine by European countries and EU leadership, following Zelensky’s melt down at the WH yesterday. One of the key take aways from the event is that US is not going to continue to bankroll a war for Europeans.
Zelensky is scheduled to meet with European leaders this weekend and lick his wounds.
Key items I’m watching is to what extent European nations, primarily France, Germany and Great Britain, are willing to do at this stage. Dump even more weapons and money into the war or will they start deploying forces in country?
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Hostage talks breaking down.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
State Dept just approved a $2.04 billion arms sale to Israel, including over 35,000 bombs and 4,000 bunker busters, bypassing congressional review by declaring an “emergency.” Deliveries start in 2026
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Hamas spokesman Hazem Qassem: The horizon is still available for mediators to pressure Israel to stop evading the implementation of the agreement
Hamas said on Saturday that it rejected Israel’s “formulation” of extending the first phase of the ceasefire in Gaza, on the day the first stage of the deal was set to expire.
The group’s spokesperson Hazem Qassem also told Al-Araby TV there were no current talks for a second ceasefire phase in Gaza with the group.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Lebanon’s Beirut airport authorities seized $2.5 million in cash meant for Hezbollah from a man arriving from Turkey, reports Reuters.
Israel recently accused Turkey of cooperating with Iran to smuggle funds to Hezbollah.
***
Israel has notified Lebanon that if Hezbollah continues violating the agreement, including smuggling weapons in the Harmel area, it will launch attacks on Hezbollah targets across Lebanon, including Dahya in Beirut.
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
Israeli security forces continue to aggressively move on terror targets in Samaria and Judea.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthi leader threatens: “If the war in Gaza resumes, all of Israel – and especially Tel Aviv – will be under fire.”
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Guterres: Gaza and the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, must be treated as one entity governed by a Palestinian government
Guterres: Gaza must remain an integral part of an independent, democratic and sovereign Palestinian state
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
As the dust settles with blow up with Ukraine, Israel is moving forward with its preparations for additional fighting. Hamas has totally rejected the extension of the Phase 1 conditions, and Israel will not go into Phase 2 without more hostages being released. I expect scrambling by Qatar and Egypt to get Hamas back on track, but I don’t think they’ll be successful. Probably just a few weeks before high intensity war breaks out again in Gaza.
Israel is still enraged over the treatment of hostages by Hamas and the next round of fighting will be intense and Hamas will face massive losses as they lose their ‘safe areas’ from biden’s era.
Israel is taking a more aggressive posture towards Hezbollah, giving Lebanon notice that they are not upholding their end of the deal to demilitarize Hezbollah. Targeting the Dahya district is Beirut is a very significant warning - this is the core district of Hezbollah power in the capitol, set up initially thinking that Israel would not strike it - which they were wrong. Escalation to such strikes will see attempts by Hezbollah to strike back, further granting Israel the license to hit other targets.
Syria -
Reuters: Israel is lobbying the U.S. to keep Syria weak and decentralized, including by letting Russia keep its military bases there to counter Turkey’s growing influence in the country, four sources said.
Thanks Godzilla.
“Why, by interweaving our destiny with that of any part of Europe, entangle our peace and prosperity in the toils of European ambition, rivalship, interest, humor, or caprice?
It is our true policy to steer clear of permanent alliances with any portion of the foreign world...”
George Washington’s Farewell Adress
A bit short and abrupt today.
There will be no post Monday as I will be getting a routine medical procedure that occurs every 5 years first thing in the morning.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Jan 24, 2025
Redditors are talking about shooting JD Vance during his up coming ski trip to Vermont
Vice President JD Vance and his family were moved to an “undisclosed location” after they were met with pro-Ukrainian protesters outside of a ski resort in Vermont.
Protesters could be seen holding signs at Sugarbush Ski Resort that read “Vance is a traitor. Go ski in Russia,” and “JD Vance is Nazi scum,” according to a post on X from Nana Sajaia, an associate producer with Fox News.
***
Multiple aircraft violated airspace over Palm Beach, Florida. Three civilian aircraft were escorted out of the area by F-16 fighter jets.
The incidents occurred at 11:05 a.m., 12:10 p.m. and 12:50 p.m.
During 2 of the intercepts the fighter jets had to deploy flares.
All 3 aircraft were safely escorted from the area by USAF jets.
OBSERVATION - This is an unusually high number of incidents in one day. Some would call this ‘probing’ his security.
POLITICAL FRONT –
MARCH 15, 2025 - CR runs out on funding the govt.
“Before meeting Trump, Zelensky met with anti-Trump Democrats who advised him to reject the terms of the mineral deal the president was offering, according to Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn)”
INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –
Following yesterday’s White House events, Haltbakk Bunkers, one of Norway’s largest marine fuel companies, has reportedly announced it will stop refueling U.S. Navy vessels. The company is also calling on other European firms to deny service to American forces.
Statement from Minister of Defence Tore O. Sandvik on reports concerning naval support
“We have seen reports raising concerns about support for US Navy vessels in Norway. This is not in line with the Norwegian government’s policy.”
“I can confirm that all requested support has been provided. The U.S. and Norway maintain a close and strong defense cooperation. American forces will continue to receive the supply and support they require from Norway.”
Illegal Immigration –
Illegal border crossings have dropped to levels that have not been seen in more than two decades during President Donald Trump’s first month in office, according to government statistics.
The Border Patrol last month reported apprehending about 8,450 migrants crossing into the United States between official entry points at the U.S.-Mexico border, according to preliminary statistics, reports CBS News Saturday.
The only other time monthly apprehensions came to being that low in the past 25 years also occurred when Trump was in office, with approximately 11,000 migrants being apprehended at the southwest border in April 2017, the agency’s data shows.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/border-crossing-trump/2025/03/01/id/1200972/
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying from single digits to the low 30s range, partly to mostly cloudy.
***
Trump administration press secretary Caroline Leavitt stated that the U.S. will no longer provide military assistance to Ukraine because their priority is peace negotiations.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine’s Air Force repelled a Russian drone attack. Out of 79 launched , 63 were shot down and 16 more were lost in location, due to electronic warfare.
Russian losses per 02/03/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1110 men
+8 tanks
+25 AFVs
+51 artillery systems
+2 MLRS
+3 AD systems
+117 service vehicles
Interesting things are happening in Toretsk. Russia forces there are overstretched in an attempt to gain more terrain before negotiations, and as many predicted logistic problems start to hit. Ukraine closing it off with a pincer move. Fighting continues in the city center, and the enemy is losing control. There are reports of complete encirclement of Russian occupiers in several areas
Summary —
Zelenski FA’d, now he is in FO mode.
Ukraine appears to have caught a significant Russian element who overran their support and are in the process of cutting it off.
Saheds giving is a rest with a much lower number overnight.
Belarus -
Putin has signed a law ratifying the security treaty with Belarus. Russia can now officially deploy military bases and troops in Belarus and use nuclear weapons to defend the “Union State,” even in response to conventional attacks.
Europe / NATO General –
UK PM Starmer and French President Macron have arrived at the London summit on Ukraine, per Sky News. They will soon be joined by Zelensky and leaders from Italy, Germany, Denmark, Norway, Poland, Finland, and Romania. Representatives from Canada and Turkey are also expected to attend
UK Starmer: We need peace that guarantees Ukraine’s sovereignty, backed by strong security guarantees
Reuters- French President Emmanuel Macron has said he is ready to start discussions on nuclear deterrence for Europe, hinting France could help to protect other EU countries, given the security threats posed by Russia.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Phase 1 period is done, no movement by Hamas to extend
- The Israel calling up another 400,000 reserve soldiers.
- IDF positioning itself to protect Druze in a southern suburb of Damascus.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
The Qatari-based Al-Jazeera network published details of the negotiations that they claim took place during the last 48 hours, between the Israeli negotiating team and the mediators.
According to the report, Israel demanded that Hamas release five living hostages and 10 slain hostages - in exchange for extending the first phase by a week, the release of more terrorists from Israeli prisons, and increasing aid into Gaza, in preparation for phase two of the ceasefire.
Israel requested Hamas’ response to the proposal by midnight on Friday. However, Hamas informed the mediators of the rejection of the proposals - which it said constituted a violation of the agreement.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/404728
***
Israeli Prime Minister’s office says Israel agreed to a U.S. proposal for extending the Gaza ceasefire in return for release of hostages but claims Hamas refuses
***
The Israeli government confirms this morning - the possibility of calling up another 400,000 reserve soldiers.
***
Rubio: “I have signed a declaration to use emergency authorities to expedite the delivery of approximately $4 billion in military assistance to Israel.”
“Since taking office, the Trump Administration has approved nearly $12 billion in major FMS (Foreign Military Sales) sales to Israel.”
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Israeli Prime Minister: We have agreed to a proposal by US envoy Steve Witkoff for a temporary truce in Gaza during Ramadan
***
Senior Israeli Security Official: “Two options—all hostage release or war. If fighting resumes, it will be more aggressive with Trump’s backing
***
Netanyahu Halts Aid to Gaza After Ceasefire Phase Ends
Netanyahu:
“All goods and supplies will be stopped from entering the Gaza Strip starting this morning.”
“The decision was made with the end of the first phase of the deal and Hamas’s refusal to accept Witkoff’s plan to continue the talks.”
Hamas:
Stopping the entry of aid means Israel’s decision to starve the residents of the Strip. There must be a firm international position to pressure Israel to stop starving the residents of the Strip.”
NOTE - we all saw how famished they were during those hostage release ceremonies
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
The Syrian regime has an ultimatum to the Druze of Jermana: You have 5 days to surrender and lay down the weapons, otherwise massive reinforcements will arrive in the village.
It seems that the new Syrian regime is also on a collision course with Israel, as Netanyahu and Katz have announced that the IDF will prepare to defend the Druze.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz have instructed the Israeli army to “prepare to defend” the Druze-majority city of Jaramana on the outskirts of Damascus in Syria. A statement issued by Katz’s office says the city is “currently under attack by the forces of the Syrian regime.”
Druze leaders from Suwayda arrive in the city of Jaramana, headed by Laith al-Balous and Suleiman Abdel Baqi, to lead the truce negotiations
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Phase 1 is effectively over. Israel may extend a cease fire for anther month but is calling up forces to deal with Hamas at its conclusion. Israel giving Hamas an opportunity to release more hostages per Phase 1 mechanisms but they are refusing.
Israel may be getting into a scrum with Syrian militia elements at the very border of Damascus. Israel values the support of the Druze as an ally to be a buffer from the islamist new Syrian govt. This southern area of Syria was one of the major groups that rebelled against Assad. Now the new Syrian order — and in this case seems to be mostly islamic militia groups - are seeking to disarm and subjugate the Druze. An Israeli ground effort to support them would bring them closer to Damascus than even the Yon Kippur war.
Dragging anchor a little more than I expected, plus there is a ton of stuff happening. Lets see how much I’m able to get thru today.
BTW - I forgot the ping list on the previous post of a couple days ago - the one immediately before this one.
Globalism / Great Reset –
The pope’s health continues to deteriorate.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
A variety of protests continue across the country on a lot of topics.
There may be increased protests in and around the Capitol due to the President’s address to Congress.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Jan 24, 2025
The Federal Aviation Administration is investigating why multiple commercial flights about to land at Ronald Reagan National Airport, near Washington DC, repeatedly received midair collision alerts over the weekend when there were no other aircraft nearby.
The alerts occurred only miles from the site of the deadly January 29 midair collision of American Eagle 5342 and a US Army Blackhawk helicopter.
Several flight crews reported the mystery alerts on their Traffic Collision Avoidance System, known as TCAS, on Saturday “indicating another aircraft was nearby when no other aircraft were in the area,” the FAA said in a statement on Monday.
https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/03/us/planes-false-alerts-midair-collision/index.html
OBSERVATION - Reportedly, the electronics to create a device to spoof TCAS is readily available and likely being used by a subversive element either foreign or domestic.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025
MARCH 15, 2025 - CR runs out on funding the govt.
***
Trump’s 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico have begun, and 20% tariffs against China.
Canada will impose 25% tariffs on $107 billion in U.S. goods from Tuesday if President Trump follows through with tariffs on Canadian goods, Prime Minister Trudeau said Monday.
The premier of Ontario, Doug Ford, has threatened the U.S. over Donald Trump’s plans to impose tariffs on Canadian exports. He is threatening to shut down the electricity going down to the U.S.
Mexico expected to announce its response later
China’s Finance Ministry announced 15% and 10% retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural imports, and imposed “dual-use” export restrictions on 15 U.S. companies.
Stock markets in the US, UK and Asia have since fallen, with analysts warning the tariffs could push up prices for American households and have a knock-on effect on consumers around the world
OBSERVATION - The impact to Canada and Mexico in particular will be big given the shallowness of their economies - it will bite hard. China faces similar problems, since its economy has been very sluggish since wuhan plandemic and its own internal financial crisis’ . There will be some increase in costs to the US, but I suspect that Canada and Mexico will continue to scramble to appease Trump by tightening the border and dealing with illegal drugs crossing the border into the US.
***
U.S. manufacturing expanded at its fastest pace since mid-2022 in February, according to the latest S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI, which rose to 52.7 from 51.2 in January.
The report signals an acceleration in the sector’s recovery, driven by stronger new orders and increased production. This marks two consecutive months of expansion, coinciding with Donald Trump’s return to the presidency.
OBSERVATION - Some what related to tariffs, showing US growing its domestic production, action that will offset to a degree limited price increased on imported materials and items.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70) pulled in to Busan Naval Base, South Korea on Sunday for a scheduled port visit, marking the first visit of a U.S. carrier to a foreign port during the second Trump administration.
NOTE - See North/South Korea for NK’s response.
POLITICAL FRONT –
MARCH 15, 2025 - CR runs out on funding the govt.
House Speaker Mike Johnson said on March 2 that he prefers passing a clean government funding extension to prevent a government shutdown through September before working towards including cuts recommended by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) in fiscal year 2026 legislation.
Johnson’s plan may help reduce the chance of a government shutdown looming ahead of a March 14 funding deadline. Republicans previously sought to incorporate the DOGE cuts immediately in an appropriations bill, which likely would have been opposed by Democrats.
“We’re looking to pass a clean [continuing resolution] to freeze funding at current levels to make sure that the government can stay open while we begin to incorporate all these savings that we’re finding through the DOGE effort and these other sources of revenue,” Johnson during an interview with NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday.
OBSERVATION - This action confirms how many perceive Johnson - a spineless wimp who would buckle to democrat demands. This resolution would continue many of the extravagant funding that DOGE is cutting - thus it works against the President’s efforts to cut waste and abuse. The time is now to strike while the iron is hot, and Johnson is underperforming right when we need someone with backbone.
***
Attorney General Pam Bondi announced that the Bureau had dropped off a “truckload” of Jeffrey Epstein files after she’d set a hard deadline for their turnover.
This follows New York FBI Field Office head James Dennehy being forced to resign. Dennehy had previously sent a defiant email to his staff on Feb 2, 2025 urging them to “dig in” and remain calm, that they were in the “middle of a battle” in response to the Trump administration’s efforts to remove FBI officials involved in the Jan 6, 2021 investigations.
OBSERVATION - Bondi oversold and underperformed on the previous ‘release’. Clock is ticking on her competence with dealing with this insurrection and the release of the information as promised, this time.
TRUMP Watch –
President Trump will deliver an address to both houses of Congress on March 4, his first in five years and since his return to the White House.
In a March 3 morning post on his social network, Truth Social, Trump wrote in capital letters: “Tomorrow night will be big.” He said he would “tell it like it is” throughout the address.
The evening will give Trump a chance to go over his agenda and the many sweeping policy changes he has enacted since his second inauguration last month.
OBSERVATION - This is not a State of the Union address. Joint addresses give a newly sworn-in president an opportunity to discuss an agenda moving forward.
I expect that many democrats will not attend and that they may try to place as many hecklers in the galleries as possible in their place.
Illegal Immigration –
Federal agents arrested two Guatemalan men on Friday accused of operating one of the largest human smuggling operations in the United States. A third is on the run.
The two were picked up near downtown Los Angeles and are accused of moving 20,000 illegal immigrants into the U.S. from Guatemala since 2019.
***
The Pentagon is deploying a Stryker Brigade Combat Team and a General Support Aviation Battalion to the southwestern border, accelerating efforts to fulfill President Trump’s directive to bolster military support in securing the U.S. – Mexico border. The units, equipped with wheeled vehicle and air capabilities, are set to reinforce border operations in the coming weeks, Pentagon Press Secretary Sean Parnell announced over the weekend.
China –
North/South Korea –
The sister of North Korea leader Kim Jong Un has said the country will respond to a US aircraft carrier’s arrival in South Korea and other military activities.
“The DPRK is also planning to carefully examine the option for increasing the actions threatening the security of the enemy at the strategic level to cope with the fact that the deployment of U.S. strategic assets in the Korean Peninsula has become a vicious habit and adversely affects the security of the DPRK,”
OBSERVATION - She is one scary, cold blooded person. If anything happens to Kim, but your bars she will ascend to the throne, not Kim’s prodigy .
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Fair conditions with temperatures warming to the 30s - 50s range.
***
Zelenskyy says end of war with Russia is ‘very, very far away’”
“This is the worst statement that could have been made by Zelenskyy, and America will not put up with it for much longer!” President Donald Trump declared Monday, reacting to the comment made by Zelenskyy above.
The United States is pausing all U.S. military aid to Ukraine until President Trump determines the Ukrainians show a commitment to good faith peace negotiations, a senior Trump administration official tells Fox News.
“This is not permanent termination of aid, it’s a pause,” the official emphasized. “The orders are going out right now.”
The official said this is in response to Ukrainian President Zelensky’s conduct over the last week.
A senior Pentagon official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told Bloomberg that the halt to military aid to Ukraine includes all military aid in transit and waiting in transit areas in Poland
Polish PM Donald Tusk says that reports from the Polish-Ukrainian border and the lack of activity at the PL/US logistics hub in Jesionka near Ukrainian border confirms that the US decision to suspend aid for Ukraine has been implemented.
Polish Foreign Ministry spokesperson Paweł Wroński confirmed that the U.S. has suspended military assistance to Ukraine, calling it a “very important decision” with “serious implications,” according to Rzeczpospolita.
Wroński stated that Washington did not inform NATO allies or the Ramstein group before making the decision. The matter is now under discussion at the EU Council.
Ukraine authorities claim they have enough stockpiled to continue the fight for 6-12 months by its self.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine repelled another Shahed drone attack overnight. Out of 99 launched, 66 were shot down and another 32 were suppressed by electronic warfare.
Russian losses per 04/03/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff.
+1340 men
+3 tanks
+8 AFVs
+45 artillery pieces
+1 AD system
+101 service vehicles
Summary —
Drones and fighting on the front are at a lowered level. Front lines are essentially static. Ukraine claimed it has over 800,000 in uniform versus 650,000 Russian forces in theatre. In the event of a total US arms shut down, Ukraine says it has stockpiles that could last a year.
See Europe below, but the help Zelenski was expecting from Europe appear to have petered out very quickly when they had to face reality of supporting a war without the US’ checkbook.
Impact to Ukraine’s morale and combat readiness remain to be seen with the pausing of US support and the lack of European backfill.
Europe / NATO General –
Ursula Von Der Leyen:We are living in dangerous times. Europe‘s security is threatened in a very real way. Today I present ReArm Europe. A plan for a safer and more resilient Europe. ReArm means: More fiscal space for national public funding for defence through the escape clause; A new instrument for loans to EU countries for defence capabilities most needed; More flexible use of EU funding towards defence investment; More private capital mobilized via the Savings and Investment Union and the EIB
***
MY OBSERVATIONS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS -
Zelenski met with European leaders to discuss the war and continuing support. Following the blow-up at the WH, most of Europe’s leaders were pounding their chests in support of Ukraine. These meeting forced them to realize they are naked without US support for the war. Suddenly these European allies are calling on Zelenzki to “reset” with Washington/Trump. However, they forgot to tell Zelinsky to put the shovel down, as he continued to dig himself (and Ukraine) into a deeper hole.
Trump demands a public apology - not just a formatted mia culpa. The freezing of arms - even those in transport to Ukraine - is going to put the screws even tighter on both Ukraine and European allies to put up or shut up.
I think the European leaders - particularly the globalist inclined that support Ukraine - are having a FO moment. How this all pans out is yet to be seen.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Israeli officials are making clear the war in Gaza will resume in the coming days, if the hostages aren’t released under the new Witkoff plan
- Israel has stopped shipments of goods into Gaza.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
US President Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, plans to return to the region in the coming days, a State Department spokesperson said on Monday, according to Reuters.
“Special Envoy Witkoff plans to return to the region in the coming days to work out either a way to extend Phase I or advance to Phase II,” the spokesperson said.
Hamas on the weekend rejected Witkoff’s proposal for a temporary ceasefire during the Ramadan and Passover periods.
On Saturday night, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Office announced that the Israeli government had agreed to adopt Witkoff’s proposal.
As part of the agreement, half of the hostages - alive and dead - will return to Israel on the first day of the agreement and at the end of the period, if an agreement for a permanent ceasefire is reached, the rest of the hostages, living and dead, will return to Israel.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/404821
***
Political sources in Jerusalem estimate that the Arab summit in Cairo, which is convening yesterday, will reject President Trump’s plan, which aims to bring about the migration of Palestinians from the Gaza Strip to Egypt and Jordan, and will support the Egyptian plan to reconstruct the Strip without the migration of its residents.
Reconstruction Plan (as reported by Qatari Al-Arabi):
•$53 billion reconstruction plan for the Gaza Strip.
•Committee to manage Gaza for 6 months, preparing for the return of the Palestinian Authority.
•UN Security Council to consider deploying international forces in Gaza.
•Total timeline: 5 years.
•Early recovery (6 months): Debris removal, temporary housing.
• Phase 1 (2 years): 200,000 housing units ($20 billion)
• Phase 2 (2.5 years): 200,000 more units, Gaza airport ($30 billion)
Senior Hamxs official Sami Abu Zuhri dismissed the Arab Summit’s proposed Gaza reconstruction plan, stating:
“We will not trade our weapons for reconstruction or the entry of aid.”
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz: “If Hamas does not release the hostages soon, the gates of Gaza will be locked and the gates of hell will be opened – we will return to fighting, and they will face the Israeli army with forces and methods they have never encountered before.”
NOTE - A dead line of 10 days was floating around Israeli sources yesterday.
***
Israel’s finance minister is warning that all power and water supplied from Israel may soon be cut off if Hamas doesn’t return all hostages soon.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israel airstrikes in South Governorate of Lebanon 10km from border. Strike in Lebanon was against a vehicle and killed a Radawan commander
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: “We are submitting to the Government a decision on a new, unprecedented, 5-year plan, for the Druze sector. We are talking about over NIS 3 billion. There has never been such a thing; this will advance the Druze sector. It will help close gaps.”
***
Israeli army spokesperson: The Israeli army recently attacked the Qardha area in Syria, a military site where weapons of the previous Syrian regime were stored. Due to recent developments in the area, it was decided to attack infrastructure at the site. The Israeli army continues to monitor what is happening in the Syrian arena and will do whatever is necessary to protect the citizens of the State of Israel.
The site raided by Israeli troops is Tell Al-Mal, a fortified hill on border between Quneitra and Daraa provinces. It was a former SAA base. Loud explosions suggest it was detonated before the withdrawal
***
Israel asked US to stop the establishment of three new Turkish bases in Syria, Israel Hayom reports, citing sources
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Unconfirmed report that the Houthis shot down a U.S. Air Force MQ-9 Reaper drone last night in Yemen’s Hodeidah district, with the wreckage reportedly falling into the Red Sea.
According to the group, this marks the 15th drone of its kind they have downed.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Looks like end game for Phase 1 extension is fast approaching. In as little as 10 days, Hamas must release all hostages (living and dead) or Israel will unleash war with a greater intensity than previous.
Witkoff’s efforts may well be in vain as Hamas is refusing all proposals from the many participants in negotiations. Trump has already OK’d any action by Israel that it sees fit - including the current cut off of aid convoys. Witkoff’s efforts are only at the grace of Israel and not an obligation.
One of Witkoff’s measures is a ceasefire for Ramadan / Passover timeframe (about one month). It doesn’t appear to be gaining traction with Israel absent positive movement by Hamas.
Israel has cocked the hammer and barring any last minute breakthroughs, it is going to fall hard on Hamas and Gaza.
Iran –
Reports that Russian missile ‘experts’ have been going to Iran starting in 2024. These are allegedly senior military officials. The extent of help and support is unknown.
I agree with all your observations.
Thanks!
Globalism / Great Reset –
Pope condition continues to get progressively worse.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
Antifa “protestors” threatened to block President Trump’s motorcade en route to the Capitol, so Secret Service caught them off guard and sent a full DECOY motorcade
Meanwhile, President Trump took the back way
***
Trump is now announcing that he is cutting off federal funding to any American college, school, or university that authorizes illegal protests on their premises.
The instigators will be imprisoned or sent to their countries of origin, Trump announced.
Trump added that American students involved in such protests will be expelled without the possibility of return or will be arrested.
***
Despite calls for an “economic blackout” targeting major retailers on Friday, February 28, early data reveals Amazon sales actually increased during the boycott period.
***
(FO) Indivisible, probably the country’s largest Trump Resistance 2.0 protest organization, recently published an updated guide to pressuring Republican and Democrat members of Congress during the March recess.
OBSERVATION - This group has recently astroturfed protests at various Republican town halls, misrepresenting themselves as disenchanted republicans. Goal is to try to rally democrats in tight republican districts to flip the seats at the midterms.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Jan 24, 2025
Monitors of Reddit channels continue to note an increase in calls for violence and assassination against Trump and the administration. Growing calls for civil war. To a degree these threats can be written off by slobs living in their mother’s basements. However, there are plenty of nut jobs out there willing to put the calls into action.
One case was Reditt calls to vandalize Tesla charging stations. Later, reports of a Tesla station being burned down was reported.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025
MARCH 15, 2025 - CR runs out on funding the govt.
***
Trump: ‘Please explain to Governor Trudeau, of Canada, that when he puts on a Retaliatory Tariff on the U.S., our Reciprocal Tariff will immediately increase by a like amount!’
OBSERVATION - Canada currently has significant tariffs on US goods, many in the 100% range. Canada doesn’t have the economic strength to handle a prolonged tariff war.
U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnik: Tariffs on Canada and Mexico will be lifted if they halt fentanyl flow into the U.S.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Unconfirmed. Israel and US holding major military exercises simulating joint strike operations, Kan News reports; dozens of aircraft take part including fighter jets, strategic bombers & refueling planes.
POLITICAL FRONT –
MARCH 15, 2025 - CR runs out on funding the govt.
President Donald Trump’s joint address to Congress on Tuesday night proved to be an optics nightmare for Democrats as one of their own was booted from the House chamber by the sergeant at arms and social media lit up over liberal lawmakers’ refusal to stand for a boy with cancer being made a member of the Secret Service
Johnson banged the speaker’s gavel as Democrats disrupted Trump’s speech, before instructing them to follow decorum and ordering Green’s removal.
“Members are directed to uphold and maintain decorum in the House and to cease any further disruptions,” Johnson said. “That’s your warning. Members are engaging in willful and continuing breach of decorum, and the chair is prepared to direct the sergeant at arms to restore order to the joint session. Mr. Green, take your seat. Take your seat, sir. Take your seat. Finding that members continue to engage in willful and concerted disruption of proper decorum, the chair now directs the sergeant at arms to restore order. Remove this gentleman from the chamber.”
Shortly after Johnson’s order to remove Green from the chamber, Trump said, “This is my fifth such speech to Congress, and once again, I look at the Democrats in front of me, and I realize there is absolutely nothing I can say to make them happy or to make them stand or smile or applaud, nothing I can do.
“I could find a cure to the most devastating disease, a disease that would wipe out entire nations or announce the answers to the greatest economy in history, or the stoppage of crime to the lowest levels ever recorded. And these people sitting right here will not clap, will not stand, and certainly will not cheer for these astronomical achievements. They won’t do it, no matter what — five times I’ve been up here, it’s very sad, and it just shouldn’t be this way,” he continued.
https://justthenews.com/government/congress/trumps-big-speech-proves-be-optics-nightmare-democrats
Trump’s speech was the longest presidential address in history before both houses of Congress
OBSERVATION - I will only touch on the President’s speech last night as there is so much to it. But the opening actions by democrats and the initial statements by the President indicate the tone for the night. The democrats acted like a bunch of children with their disruptive actions, and the President owned them for every minute.
***
In his speech to Congress on Tuesday night, President Donald Trump delivered a modicum of justice to the American troops hung out to dry at the Kabul airport in 2021.
Trump announced that the U.S. had finally arrested an ISIS-K planner involved in the Abbey Gate terrorist attack.
Trump said that America, with the help of Pakistan, got this terrorist and was extraditing him to the U.S. “to face the swift sword of American justice.” We saw what you did there, POTUS.
TRUMP Watch –
Liberals heads are exploding today over Trump’s speech last night. Even leftist leaning polling shows the support for Trump
CBS instant poll of Trump’s speech:
76% approve
23% disapprove
CNN instant poll of Trump’s speech:
69% positive
31% negative
These are HUGE numbers
China –
Chinese Embassy in US:
“If war is what the U.S. wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we’re ready to fight till the end.”
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Fair conditions with temperatures warming to the 30s - 50s range.
***
Trump: Got a letter from President Zelensky of Ukraine - ready to work under President Trump. I appreciate he sent this letter. Russia is ready for peace
Reuters report: The US and Ukraine may sign the minerals agreement today. Trump told his advisers that he wants to announce the signing of the agreement in his speech tonight to both houses of Congress
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine’s Air Force again faced another Russian missile and drone attack.
Shot down:
?/3 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles
?/1 S-300 ballistic missile
115/181 Shahed drones
In addition, 55 Russian drones were suppressed by electronic warfare. Ukraine’s Air Force does not always report the results of combat operations against Russian missiles.
Russian forces struck an energy facility in Odesa region, says DTEK.
This marks the 4th attack on the region’s energy system in two weeks.
Russian losses per 05/03/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff
+1250 men
+1 tank
+6 AFVs
+23 artillery systems
+84 service vehicles
Summary —
Ground fighting continues at lower levels. Russia is resorting to more leg infantry assaults, noting the lack of tanks/APC being destroyed. Exposed infantry to Ukraine drones - not a good situation for Russia infantry, hence lowered tempo there as well. Situation remains an essential stalemate.
Geopolitical maneuvering continues. Zelensky apparently is trying to reset relations with Washington and Trump, issuing a sorta apology that Trump last night appeared to be accepting.
Europe / NATO General –
French President Miterand may accompany Zelensky to DC in a soon return to DC to see Trump.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas continues to reject plans for Gaza and hostage releases.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Mediators have informed Israel that Hamas is refusing to show flexibility or engage in talks based on the framework proposed by the U.S. envoy to the region. While fighting in Gaza could resume as early as next week, officials in Jerusalem hope that a series of measures currently under consideration will ultimately push Hamas toward compromise
Despite Hamas’ refusal, Israeli officials remain hopeful that the terror group will soften its stance at the last moment, knowing that Israel is moving closer to resuming military operations. Jerusalem believes that as Hamas recognizes Israel’s full coordination with Washington and the strong backing of the U.S. president, it will opt for compromise.
While Israeli officials estimate that military operations may not resume immediately, they do not rule out the possibility of renewed fighting as early as next week.
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/bkpfewhj1l
***
The White House rejected the Gaza reconstruction plan proposed by Egypt and adopted by the Arab League.
White House National Security Council spokesman Brian Hughes said, “The current proposal does not address the reality that Gaza is uninhabitable, and its residents cannot live there humanely when it is covered in rubble and unexploded bombs.”
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The Israeli army says it identified a group of suspects loading up vehicles with weapons in the Naqoura area of southern Lebanon earlier today. One of the vehicles was targeted in a drone strike, the military says. “The activity of the suspects is a violation of the understandings between Israel and Lebanon,” the Israeli army adds.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israeli support to Druze communities in S Syria has essentially forced the Syrian govt to negotiate. Druze leaders escorted Syrian representatives into their communities for negotiations.
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
The IDF announced that during the night, security forces expanded the operation in northern Samaria to additional areas in Jenin.
The operation began with security forces’ efforts to arrest the head of the Hamas terrorist organization in Jenin. During the operation and after an exchange of fire, the fighters killed Ayser al-Saadi, the head of the organization, and another terrorist, and arrested three wanted individuals.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The U.S. State Department officially reclassified the Houthis in Yemen as a foreign terrorist organization on Tuesday. This move comes a little more than a month after U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order calling on the department to issue the reclassification.
“Today’s action taken by the State Department demonstrates the Trump administration’s commitment to protecting our national security interests, the safety of the American people and the security of the United States,” U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said.
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-64/
OBSERVATION - Terrorist designation allows a great deal more flexibility to deal with them.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi announces that the emergency Arab summit in Cairo adopts Egypt’s plan for Gaza reconstruction.
Note - Hamas has already said no.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
The clock continues to count down to resumption of the war in Gaza. Hamas is sending mixed signals. On one hand, statement suggest they recognize the peril they are facing should Israel resume offensive operations. OTOH, they continue to demand Phase 2 conditions and that they continue to control Gaza.
It is expected that Israel will strike harder and deeper than the first phase of the war with the backing of Trump. That should cause second thoughts by Hamas.
The arab ‘plan’ is not gaining any traction and Trump is in charge of any initiative. The plan, put forward by Egypt, keeps Gazans in Gaza. We know why - leverage for arab nations to continue to press for a two state solution as well as they don’t want these troublemakers in their countries.
Lebanon is still relatively unstable and their govt acknowledged that Israel has forces a 2 km buffer zone in the south. As long as Israel perceives a Hezbollah threat, they will not pull back.
Israeli influence in Druze S Syria is providing those groups leverage to maintain a level of independence from the islamic govt. Druze in Israel have been a very loyal element and has benefitted a lot. Fellow Druze in Syria see this and want a piece of the action as well.
BUMP
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
Pro-Hamxs protesters have occupied Milstein Library at Barnard College in NYC, declaring it the “Dr. Hussam Abu Safiya Liberated Zone.”
OBSERVATION - I guess that March is the start of college students trying to get cabin fever out of their systems by playing hamas and disrupting colleges/universities again. Milk-toast college president failing to stand up to these usurpers is only encouraging them. I bet full well that other colleges across the country are looking to see how this first insurrection of the season plays out.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Jan 24, 2025
A Portland far-left extremist has been arrested over the firebombing and shooting attacks on Tesla in Salem, Ore.
Adam Matthew Lansky (b. Nov 1983) has been federally charged by the DOJ with illegally possessing an unregistered destructive device. He’s accused of being part of the Jan. 20 firebombing attack on the Tesla store and the Feb. 19 shooting there. Lansky allegedly pointed a semi-automatic rifle at a witness during the first incident.
https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1897490395405156627?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
OBSERVATION - Crossover with CW2 conditions. The left is increasing attacks on Tesla retailers and owners nation wide, reflecting frenzied calls on social media sites like Reddit and others.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025
MARCH 15, 2025 - CR runs out on funding the govt.
***
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggested that the White House could reach a compromise with Canada and Mexico to cushion the tariff-driven economic blows.
In a March 4 interview with Fox Business, Lutnick revealed that he is constantly on the phone with Canadian and Mexican officials and noted that the president could meet them “in the middle some way” on March 5.
“And the president is listening because, you know, he’s very, very fair and very reasonable. So I think he’s going to work something out with them,” Lutnick said.
He later clarified to Bloomberg that some product categories, such as automobiles, could be exempted from the 25 percent tariffs.
RELATED -
Automakers received temporary reprieve Wednesday from US President Donald Trump’s tariffs targeting Canada and Mexico, as concerns mounted over consumer impacts and talks with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau yielded no immediate breakthrough.
Following discussions with the “Big Three” US automakers — Stellantis, Ford and General Motors — Trump decided to “give a one-month exemption on any autos coming through USMCA,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said, referring to the North American free trade pact.
“They made the ask, and the president is happy to do it,” Leavitt told reporters.
https://www.breitbart.com/news/us-signals-possible-exemptions-in-canada-mexico-tariffs/
POLITICAL FRONT –
MARCH 15, 2025 - CR runs out on funding the govt.
Missouri AG Andrew Bailey is calling on the DOJ to investigate whether President Biden’s cognitive decline has enabled unelected staff to advance radical policies without his informed approval.
Bailey argues that if these claims are true, the executive orders, pardons, and other actions in question would be unconstitutional and legally void.
OBSERVATION - I’ve noted that biden’s lack of mental facilities bring into question the plethora of decisions he is said to have made during his reign. If this does expand into a full investigation - things could get REALLY ugly fast.
***
Fallout against democrat behavior at the Trump address the other night continues.
***
Noting also considerable action on the lawfare front, wins/losses will continue until the USSC is FORCED of officially confront judicial overreach by lower level courts. This will take time.
Illegal Immigration –
Trump’s administration is planning to revoke temporary legal status for some 240,000 Ukrainians who fled the war, potentially putting them on a fast-track to deportation, - Reuters
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov: deployment of European troops into Ukraine would mean direct involvement of NATO in the war with Russia
Lavrov says Macron’s words about preparation of nuclear weapons is a threat against Russia(Macron proposed to talk on nuclear deterrence for Europe)
RUMINT-
Kremlin officials announced their intention of taking advantage of the suspension of US military aid and intelligence sharing to make additional battlefield gains.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Fair conditions with temperatures warming to the 30s - 50s range.
RUMINT –
Politico: “Four senior members of Donald Trump’s entourage have held secret discussions with some of Kyiv’s top political opponents to Volodymyr Zelenskyy
***
President of Ukraine Zelensky has arrived at special EU summit in Brussels
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia launched missiles and drones overnight. Out of 122 Shaheds launched, 68 were shot down and 43 were suppressed by electronic warfare. Also two Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles were launched.
Russian losses per 06/03/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
+1140 men
+5 tanks
+7 AFVs
+21 artillery systems
+2 AD systems
+94 service vehicles
Search and rescue operation has been concluded on the site of Russian missile strike in Kryvyi Rih. Final death toll: 4 killed, 32 wounded. Russia claims the hotel housed military forces.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russian milbloggers report that a Ukrainian local counteroffensive near Pokrovsk has started.
“Ukrainian forces expanded their assault today, achieving significant tactical gains. Fighting is intense, with up to two brigades attacking from Pokrovsk and one from Uspenivka. Russian forces are struggling but holding,” they add
NOTE - This attack appears to be hitting the flank of the Russian salient in the area.
***
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Andriyivka village of Donetsk region of Ukraine
Summary —
Moderate levels of fighting continue with essentially no changes to the front lines. A Ukrainian local counteroffensive near Pokrovsk would help relieve much pressure on the city and set back Russian efforts to envelope it.
Rumors of Russia attempting to take advantage and press new offensive actions are interesting given that forces in key front areas have been almost maxed out by the meat attack strategy of the past few months. I’m not sure Russia possesses enough operational reserve forces to mount anything larger than we have seen this year.
Loss of some US munitions may not be as devastating in some ways. FPV drones have become the primary weapon used along the front and are causing the greatest levels of causalities. Ukraine’s industry is cranking them out by the millions/year rate and unless Russia comes up with a more effective counter drone technology, they will continue to dominate the battlefield.
Zelensky meeting with EU leadership in the next couple days. Not sure how much he can expect other than verbal support. What is increasing concerning is the rising rhetoric of France, Britain and even Germany to some extent placing forces in Ukraine.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Trump throws down gauntlet against Hamas
- Uncertain progress on Phase 2 talks
- IDF: The Israeli Air Force in a Joint Aerial Exercise with the U.S. Air Force
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Following his meeting with surviving Hamas hostages, President Trump issued the following statement -
“Shalom Hamas” means Hello and Goodbye - You can choose. Release all of the Hostages now, not later, and immediately return all of the dead bodies of the people you murdered, or it is OVER for you. Only sick and twisted people keep bodies, and you are sick and twisted! I am sending Israel everything it needs to finish the job, not a single Hamas member will be safe if you don’t do as I say. I have just met with your former Hostages whose lives you have destroyed. This is your last warning! For the leadership, now is the time to leave Gaza, while you still have a chance. Also, to the People of Gaza: A beautiful Future awaits, but not if you hold Hostages. If you do, you are DEAD! Make a SMART decision. RELEASE THE HOSTAGES NOW, OR THERE WILL BE HELL TO PAY LATER!
DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
***
Israeli Defense Minister: We are committed to eliminating the Iranian nuclear threat
***
Incoming IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir told the high command on Thursday night that 2025 will be a year of war focused on Gaza and Iran, with other fronts also being given attention.
He said that he will emphasize the concept of “victory” as an important value, as, in recent years, the IDF had been focused on relative victory or deterrence.
Additionally, he has decided that all efforts will be made to return the hostages from Hamas, though no specific policy changes have been named.
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-844875
***
This week, the Israeli Air Force conducted a joint aerial exercise with the U.S. Air Force.
The exercise aimed to strengthen and maintain the long-standing cooperation between the forces while expanding connectivity and building integrated capabilities for a range of scenarios.
As part of the exercise, Israeli F-35i and F-15i aircraft flew alongside a U.S. B-52 strategic bomber. During the flight, the forces practiced operational coordination between the two militaries to enhance their ability to address various regional threats.
The cooperation between the IDF and CENTCOM (United States Central Command) reflects the strategic alliance and close ties that continue to develop and strengthen between the militaries over time.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Hamas spokesman Hazem Qassem says “Trump’s threats complicate issues related to the ceasefire agreement. Trump should pressure Netanyahu to start negotiations on the second phase of the Gaza agreement
***
The Israeli military confirms conducting a drone strike earlier today in northern Gaza, targeting individuals spotted planting an explosive near IDF forces. According to Palestinian media, the strike resulted in one elimination and multiple injuries.
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
Israeli army Spokesperson: 90 wanted individuals arrested and 14 weapons confiscated: Security forces activity in Judea and Samaria during the past week
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Major hurdles facing Phase 2 agreements and the clock is ticking.
Hamas’ response to Trump’s threats reflect the arab mentality of displayed strength vs rhetoric at play. Hopefully Trump recognizes this and has demonstrated it in the past in his dealings with the Taliban when he dropped a MOAB on a major Taliban facility when they were’t playing according to his rules. Taliban quickly returned to behaving correctly. What should scare Hamas is that Trump correctly links Gaza to Hamas in that Gazans have captured and held hostages, not just hamas. Would Trump drop another MOAB on a target of opportunity in Gaza - very likely.
Second thing driving Trump on this is his meeting with released hostages and hearing their first hand accounts of captivity and brutality. Trump has a strong sense of justice and may see US actions as justice toward Hamas.
As everything counts down, Israel has essentially been given a free hand in dealing with Hamas and the US may well join the effort. The next round promises potentially be very brutal for hamas.
On the Iranian aspect, reports of uranium enrichment approaching the 90% levels should be making Iran’s leadership very nervous and not confident. The joint Israel/US airfares training suggests the next strike on Iran has the potential to be exceptionally brutal as well. IAF can sweep the ground of reconstituted Iranian air defenses while USAF heavy bombers lead by B2s carrying massive ground penetrating bombs hit the deepest targets.
Iranian threats to US friendly gulf nations as well as the Straits of Hormuz will need to be covered, so I’m watching to see if additional CSG assets are headed to the area as an indicator. I don’t see the USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70), currently in S Korea, making the play towards the region as Chinese threats are too high. The USS Harry Truman is still in the Red Sea region, following repairs but may soon be looking at rotation out due to duration of deployment. The USS George Washington is currently in Japan and could deploy but will require time to get the CSG to sea.
Iran –
U.S. Intelligence sources say Iran is enriching uranium above 80% purity at the Fordow Enrichment Plant
OBSERVATION - (see also discussion under Israel above) A military strike by BOTH Israel and the US may have stepped closer to becoming fact if this report is true. Announced increased enrichment amounts by Iran are already public from them and on the surface suggest the push towards 90% purity (weapons grade) is an ongoing effort.
***
Reuters report: The Trump administration is planning another move against Iran’s arms smuggling - and is preparing to stop tankers at sea under the authority of the Non-Proliferation Treaty. “You don’t have to sink ships or stop people, just delay the shipments to make people understand that it’s not worth it,” one of the sources said. The plan is to advance steps by the US and its allies to stop tankers carrying Iranian oil at key points at sea, such as the Strait of Malacca and other shipping lanes
OBSERVATION - Part of the ‘maximum pressure’ doctrine. Doing so away from the Arabian Sea and the Straits of Hormuz prevent Iranian ground based assets from interfering or defending these Iranian tankers.
Syria -
Russian jets reported seen flying over parts of Syria.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
The State Dept. revoked the first visa for a student who was cited for criminal behavior in connection with Hamas-supporting disruptions at universities.
ICE will now proceed with removing this individual from the United States.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025
MARCH 15, 2025 - CR runs out on funding the govt.
***
House Taxation Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-MO) said the debt ceiling could be breached as early as May if the U.S. government collects less tax revenue than expected this year. Finance and economic analysts said the U.S. could hit the debt ceiling between July and August.
POLITICAL FRONT –
MARCH 15, 2025 - CR runs out on funding the govt.
President Donald Trump on Thursday stripped security clearances from a law firm linked to the 2016 election investigation into his ties to Russia.
‘This is an absolute honor to sign,’ said Trump as he put his signature on an Executive Order suspending clearance from staff at Perkins Coie.
‘What they’ve done is just terrible. It’s weaponization ... you could say weaponization against a political opponent, and it should never be allowed to happen again.’
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14470515/donald-trump-security-law-perkins-coie.html
Illegal Immigration –
White House spokesperson on revocation of temporary protection status of Ukrainians in U.S.: This is more fake news from Reuters based on anonymous sources who have no idea what they are talking about. The truth: no decision has been made at this time
https://x.com/PressSec/status/1897667362897219916
***
NYC to ignore ICE detainer on illegal immigrant who set woman on fire in subway
North/South Korea –
After a South Korean court approved the revocation of the detention order against impeached South Korean President Yoon Seok-yeol, the embattled decision-maker is set to be released from a detention facility today. His political allies have decried his arrest and subsequent detention and have lauded the decision by the court.
OBSERVATION - SK politics is still in turmoil.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
Trump evaluating large scale sanctions and tariffs against Russia to start forcing them to the peace table.
OBSERVATION - Trump has been allowing Russia to think that they are getting their way, but he isn’t stupid. He knows that Russia will not agree to any peace plan without total surrender of Ukraine - something unacceptable to Trump - despite all the current rhetoric. He is working one piece of the puzzle at a time, Ukraine, Europe and now pivoting on Russia.
***
Russian MFA Spokesperson Maria Zakharova rejected the possibility of a negotiated ceasefire and the deployment of European troops to Ukraine on March 6 and claimed that Russia considers any proposal that gives Ukraine a “respite” along the frontline as unacceptable.
Lavrov and Zakharova are explicitly rejecting US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s February 12 suggestion that European and non-European countries should station troops in Ukraine to enforce any future peace agreement.
(ISW). Putin stated during a visit to the Defenders of the Fatherland Foundation’s Moscow branch on March 6 that Russia does not intend to “give in to anyone” or make any compromises in future peace negotiations.
Putin alluded to the Russian Revolution, noted that Russian society collapsed during the First World War, and urged Russians to maintain support and unity as the war continues.
Putin stated that Russia “will not give up” its “own” territory in future peace negotiations — likely referring to illegally annexed territory in occupied Ukraine.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Fair conditions with temperatures warming to the 30s - 50s range.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia attacked Ukraine with a large amount of missiles and drones overnight. The Air Force reports that both F-16’s and Mirage-2000 jets were involved in repelling the attack. This is the first time, French-supplied Mirage 2000-5F fighters in Ukrainian service engaged Russian drones and cruise missiles.
Shot down:
25/35 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles
8/8 Kalibr cruise missiles
0/3 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles
0/4 S-300 ballistic missiles
1/8 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles
186/194 Shahed drones (100 shot down, 86 suppressed)
Russian missiles, mainly aimed for Ukraine’s gas and energy infrastructure. Explosions in Poltava, Kharkiv, Ternopil, Vinnytsia, Ivano-Frankivsk and other regions.
Russian losses per 07/03/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1150 men
+3 tanks
+23 AFVs
+16 artillery systems
Summary —
Moderate fighting indicated along the eastern front. With rumors that Russia is planning to refocus its offensive efforts against Kostyantynivka region, the down grade in fighting may reflect a tactical ‘pause’ to permit readjustment of forces to that region, while continuing to fix Ukraine forces in place. I don’t have the info yet to confirm.
Bigger story is that Russia integrated cruse missiles into the mass firing of Shahed drones, obtaining a degree of success due to saturation of air defense assets. Attack likely in response to recent successful Ukraine attacks on Russian petroleum refinery and related targets.
In spite of vocal support, EU is incapable of supplying the materials necessary for Ukraine in the long run. Zelensky now appears to be doing 180s on his policies and goals for the war on nearly an hourly basis.
OTOH, Trump may be pivoting against Russia (see above) to bring them inline with his thoughts for peace in the region.
Europe / NATO General –
EU foreign policy chief: We are working to ramp up arms production to speed up deliveries to Ukraine
European Council President: We need to support Ukraine and ensure a just and lasting peace in cooperation with our international partners
OBSERVATION - Europe at this stage can only offer words of encouragement to Ukraine.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Extension of Phase 1 ceasefire and Phase 2 have hit a stalemate.
- Hamas rejected the “Wittkoff Outline”
- Saturday marks the first day of Ramadan, the ninth and ‘holiest’ month of the Muslim calendar.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
There is definitely a deadline for returning to fighting in the Gaza Strip, according to President Donald Trump’s Mideast envoy, “but I’m not at liberty to discuss it,” he told White House reporters on Thursday.
Steve Wtikoff’s statements come a day after Trump issued another threat to Hamas about facing “hell to pay” if the terrorist organization does not release the hostages. Witkoff repeated those words on Thursday, saying that “it is time for Hamas to start acting in a responsible and reasonable way.”
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/sy3fofpjkl#autoplay
Hamas is insisting on a complete Israeli withdrawal from the Strip and a permanent ceasefire in conjunction with the release of the hostages.
(The Washington Post)
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
World Bank estimates: Lebanon reconstruction project will cost $11 billion, Kan News reports.
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
March 7, 2025: In 2025 the United States threatened to halt $336 million is aid to the Palestinian Authority/PA if the Palestinians did not halt their Pay for Slay payments. Recent payments were substantial, with some Palestinian terrorists receiving over a million dollars. The most recent payment totaled $142 million for 738 Palestinian terrorists. That averages $193,000 per terrorist.
Last year the PA continued using its Pay For Slay program to reward Palestinian terrorists. Since October 2023, the PA declared nearly 10,000 imprisoned Palestinian and Hamas terrorists as eligible for Pay for Slay money. The PA also recognized an additional 39,000 families of dead terrorists as eligible for Pay for Slay payments. While the PA agreed to the American demands, it is believed that the PA will seek to find a way to make the payments anyway. The Americans have been through this before and this time the PA deceptions may not work.
The PA has long used foreign aid money to run their pay-for-slay program. Since the 1970s the PA has diverted nearly half a billion dollars in foreign aid to pay Palestinian terrorists for killing Israeli civilians and soldiers. There is an elaborate system for paying the families of dead Palestinian terrorists as well as lesser payments for those imprisoned for attacks on Israelis.
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htworld/articles/2025030702912.aspx#gsc.tab=0
***
UNRWA Commissioner-General: Refugee camps in Jenin and Tulkarm evacuated, civilian infrastructure destroyed
***
Hamas: We call on our people in the West Bank, Jerusalem and the occupied interior to escalate the resistance and head to Al-Aqsa and the Ibrahimi Mosque
***
IDF troops in Tulkarem uncovered and destroyed a bomb-making lab and a drone production site used by Palestinian terrorists. The raid, led by the Kfir Brigade’s Shimshon Battalion, seized 100 pipe bombs, makeshift mines, and detonator systems. Several terror-related buildings were also demolished.
***
Israeli forces rescued 10 foreign workers overnight from the West Bank, where they had been held for more than a month. Reports indicate that Palestinians lured the Indian workers with job offers, then confiscated their passports.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Saudi sources say Riyadh is deeply disappointed with the Cairo summit, feeling its position was ignored. While not a full-blown crisis, anger toward Egypt is evident, with MBS skipping the meeting.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE refuse to fund Gaza reconstruction unless Hamxs is disarmed and removed from power. The Saudis welcome U.S.-Hamxs talks, believing Trump can apply the pressure needed to eliminate the terror group.
Saudi and the UAE are supposed to finance the $53 Billion Gaza reconstruction. But MBS insists Hamas cannot remain in power.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
“There is definitely a deadline for returning to fighting in the Gaza Strip. . . “
Words that should chill Hamas’ blood. There has been abundant evidence that Trump and Netanyahu have been working together on this issue, so at this stage it isn’t surprising. What I think will surprise the world will be the intensity of the attack on Hamas. Egypt, Saudi Arabia and other arab countries may have gotten a hint, hence their accelerated efforts to come to some end game for Gaza. Hamas is returning to full jihadi mode and would prefer to die than show any kind of capitulation. They may soon get their chance.
Continued reports of increased Iranian purification of uranium getting more attention. The countdown to an eventual strike against Iran is on.
In Lebanon, though delayed, popular support for Hezbollah is dropping fast. Massively expensive rebuilding of the country is necessary and now reports that Hezbollah fighters are seeking other employment.
Iran –
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA): Iran succeeds in enriching enough material for 6 nuclear bombs.
Iran’s 60%-level enriched uranium stockpile has increased to 275 kilograms, or about one full nuclear weapon’s worth per month since December, International Atomic Energy Agency Director-General Rafael Grossi said Monday.
The IAEA has found that Tehran has enough 60%-enriched uranium – which could be quickly converted to the 90% weaponized level – to make six nuclear weapons if it decided to do so.
OBSERVATION - Initially misleading headline, but approaching the red zone for Israel. There is currently nothing standing in the way of Iran taking the final steps to process the material to the 90% level. Unanswered questions are do they have a device that they can put the uranium into and create a bomb? Israel and the US appear to be on track to strike Iran in the near future to prevent that from happening.
Syria -
A new civil war is evolving in Syria overnight. In the town of Jableh, which lies in Syria’s coastal Latakia province, pro-Assad forces ambushed and killed 16 members of the regime’s security forces. In the ensuing retaliation, 28 pro-Assad militants and four civilians died, according to the London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR). Latakia hold the highest concentration of Alawites — the minority sect of Islam that’s principally found in Syria, with the Assad family themselves being the most prominent members. Alawites comprise about 10% of the country’s population. Notably, the province is also home to the Russian-operated Khmeimim air base.
Fighters from the “Syrian Military Council for the Freedom of Syria” (SMC) have took control of the outskirts of Jableh, Latakia, western Syria; the fighters also seem to have captured a Soviet-made, T-55 Main Battle Tank
The Syrian security forces and army control most of the areas of the Syrian coast. The northern countryside of Latakia / Damsarkho. Ras Al-Shamra. Al-Qanjara. Janata. Saqoubin Sinjwan. Basnada
OBSERVATION - I don’t think the rebellion will be able to last for long. No supply lines and no tactical support available from Russia. May degrade to a low grade guerrilla war.
The fight is desperate as the pro-Syrian govt islamic elements have been essentially conduction a genocide of the Alawites, in revenge for Assad’s rule.
Africa general –
S Africa -
Trump: The U.S. is to halt all federal funding to South Africa and offering South African farmers and their families a fast-track to U.S. citizenship for safety. The process starts immediately.
OBSERVATION - The black govt of S Africa has put into law the complete seizure of any properties owned by whites through out the country - without compensation.
Discussions by whites in the past suggest that such a move has been anticipated and that their response will be to burn everything to the ground, - crops and infrastructure - and bug out of country. They have an organized volunteer defense force organized to facilitate that withdrawal.
With the disaster of Zimbabue as an example, S Africa will face an accelerated dive into sub- 3d world conditions as they have already demonstrated they cannot operate and maintain the infrastructure they’ve already obtained. Now will face the loss of that which has kept them fed and marginally civilized.
Thanks, Godzilla.
EXCELLENT!
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
Sunny Hostin told her co-hosts Friday on ABC’s “The View” that President Donald Trump’s second term was an “existential crisis,” so Democratic lawmakers must be willing to “fight and die.”
OBSERVATION - I’ve been pointing out over the past year the increasing call for violence from the left in response to Trump. Loud mouths like those on the “view” are not just speaking out of ignorance, but deliberately trying edge their mind-numbed viewers towards violence. The big question is will this jell into a much larger, active move of violence?
***
US federal authorities on Friday announced the cancellation of $400 million in grants and contracts with New York’s Columbia University due to campus antisemitism.
The cuts marked the most significant action yet taken by the Trump administration in its planned crackdown on anti-Jewish discrimination at universities.
The statement said the cuts were the “first round of action” and more cancellations are expected, noting that the university has more than $5 billion in federal grant commitments.
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-64/
OBSERVATION - Colombia has been very reluctant to deal with the bands of hamas loving “students” that have been disrupting the campus and threatening Jewish students. They have gone as far as trying to appease these ‘protestors’. Now the hammer is dropping as ICE is identifying foreign student participants as well as hitting the pocket book - hard.
Strong response now will likely throw cold water on future protests on other college/university campuses
***
Weekend here again, numerous protests scattered across the nation under a variety of grievances. No overt threats of violence, but as always, local acts along with vandalism can occur. Keep up to date on local news and avoid protest areas.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Jan 24, 2025
Another Tesla dealer ship in the Portland OR area was hit by vandalism. This makes it the third one in a week.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025
MARCH 15, 2025 - CR runs out on funding the govt.
Federal Reserve’s Vice Chair for Supervision, Michael Barr, has resigned ahead of expected audit by DOGE, per POLITICO.
OBSERVATION - This makes one want to say Hmmmmm.
***
The United States added 151,000 jobs in February despite nearly 10,000 federal workers losing their positions, a new report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates.
In Friday’s report, the BLS reported a slight increase in the unemployment rate from 4% in January to 4.1% in February.
The report was relatively unremarkable, as thousands of government workers lost their jobs in February. At least in President Donald Trump’s first full month in office, there were few noticeable changes in the overall U.S. workforce.
OBSERVATION - They say unremarkable, but in part it is since the last several years govt hiring has kept the numbers high. Now, private jobs are growing enough to counter fed job losses.
***
French shipping giant CGM CMA said it will invest $20 billion in U.S. shipping logistics, infrastructure, and shipping terminals. CGM CMA said it will also triple the size of its U.S.-flagged cargo ship fleet.
OBSERVATION - Trump once again drawing foreign investment back into the US, bolstering our economy.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
About two weeks after the Secretary of the Air Force Public Affairs published the first-ever in-orbit image captured by Boeing’s X-37 spaceplane, the US Space Force revealed early Friday that the top-secret spaceplane has returned to Earth.
Space Force announced the X-37B Orbital Test Vehicle-7 (OTV-7) “successfully deorbited and landed” at Vandenberg Space Force Base, California, on early Friday around 0222 local time.
Images posted on X by the space agency show military personnel in laboratory protective suits, like NBC and/or BSL-4 suits, approaching the X-37 after touchdown at Vandenberg.
X-37B, concluded its seventh mission in orbit, operating in space for 434 days.
POLITICAL FRONT –
MARCH 15, 2025 - CR runs out on funding the govt.
This is gaining some legs and worthy of watching. Missouri Attorney General Bailey is demanding documents to know if Biden was competent enough to make decisions during his administration. Follow on investigations indicate that Biden “signatures” on nearly every document from his administration were from using an auto-pen, not his actual signature. A smoking gun so to speak is a comparison of his memo dropping out of the race - his actual signature in comparison to auto- pen. Not hard to see the large difference. Thus, he who controlled the auto pen controlled the WH.
If Biden was not mentally able to be President, then who was acting on his behalf? A number of WH staffers have been identified in addition to Jill and Hunter biden, as potentially controlling the auto pen.
Constitutional crisis grows as the question is being asked - was Biden competent enough to make those decisions?
More -
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/03/report-nearly-all-bidens-official-signatures-were-autopens/
***
OPINION (Washington Times):
Uncle Sam goes broke next Friday, unless Congress acts. We’ve seen this Kabuki play out many times, and the ending never changes. To get enough votes to pass a continuing resolution (CR), lawmakers load the must-pass bill with sufficient pork to sate wastrels on both sides of the aisle, and the government expands.
Donald Trump has created a plot twist for this familiar tale. He’s insisting on a clean CR through September—without the pork—while continuing to put the entire federal bureaucracy on a diet. House Speaker Mike Johnson likes the idea and could have a CR on the floor as early as Tuesday.
But it’s 2025, and federal agencies are no longer run by intentional obstructionists. The new management decides who qualifies as an essential employee. If handled properly, nothing important will close this time.
. . . . a funding lapse would mean those non-essential employees couldn’t be put back on the job. In this way, a shutdown would bypass meddling jurists while giving the Supreme Court more time to weigh in on the extent of the president’s executive power under Article II of the Constitution.
OBSERVATION - Interesting view on the upcoming budget fight. From the beginning, it was one that the democrats were going to lose, since they have lost control of the news cycle. Gives Trump the ability to keep fired govt workers off the job and the courts to clean up the messy district judges activism.
***
The Transportation Security Administration just announced that it is ending collective bargaining for more than 40,000 TSA employees. A TSA press release makes the case that the union protects low performing employees who game the system to avoid work.
TSA has more people doing full-time union work than we have performing screening functions at 86% of our airports. Of the 432 federalized airports, 374 airports have fewer than 200 TSA Officers to preform screening functions.
Nearly 200 TSA Officers are paid by the government but work full-time on union matters. These people do not retain certification to perform screening functions. Additionally, in a recent TSA employee survey, over 60% said poor performers are allowed to stay employed and, not surprisingly, continue to not perform…
https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2025/03/07/dhs-ends-collective-bargaining-for-the-tsa-n3800535
OBSERVATION - IMHO, there should be no unions for govt workers. Since its inception, TSA has been inept and with the biden illegal migration efforts, they allowed undocumented and actual criminal aliens full access to our airlines - while citizens had to stand and wait for their tedious scanning.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
putin hints that a ‘pause’ in Russian operations may be in order in response to Trump’s threat to escalate sanctions.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Fair conditions with temperatures warming to the 30s - 50s range.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine’s Air Force reported on another large Shahed drone and missile attack overnight.
Shot down:
0/2 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles
1/1 Iskander-K cruise missiles
133/145 Shahed drones (79 shot down and 54 suppressed by electronic warfare)
Russian losses per 08/03/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1000 men
+4 tanks
+12 AFVs
+24 artillery systems
+1 MLRS
+3 AD systems
+113 service vehicles
Ukraine drones struck the Kinef oil refinery in Leningrad region of Russia
Kursk Front -
Russia has launched a major counteroffensive in the region. In Kursk region Ukrainian forces have repelled 26 Russian army assaults overnight. This follows over 30 the previous day, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims control of Staraya Sorochina, Nikolaevka and Viktorovka in Kursk region (northern end of the salient)
Summary —
Things are getting tight in Kursk, though it seems that Ukraine has some what stabilized the situation. putin may have prioritized recapture of the region over taking more Ukraine terrain as the specter of peace talks grow. This may be reflected in the noticeable drop in Russian action in the Pokrovsk Region. Daily Russia casualties don’t reflect the significant uptick in Russian action.
Russia also continuing the massive Shahed attacks on Ukraine, now mixing cruise and some short ranged ballistic missiles into the mix. An effort to wear down Ukrainian defenses. Could be a build up to the next, more massive blitz by Russia using cruise/ballistic missiles.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Ramadan stressing Israeli security of the Temple Mount
- IAF hit numerous targets in S Lebanon.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
The Muslim holy month of Ramadan has typically been a period of increased security challenges and terrorism for the Israeli authorities, particularly during a time of war.
Several days after the start of Ramadan this year, tensions rose to a first peak with this week’s Friday prayers in the Al Aqsa Mosque on the Temple Mount in Jerusalem.
Israeli media reported that around 90,000 Muslim worshippers gathered for prayer at the Temple Mount, with no clashes or security incidents reported at the time of publication.
On Thursday evening, the Israeli government issued security instructions for the Friday morning prayers, approving recommendations from security services to impose a limit on the number of Palestinians from Judea and Samaria who would be permitted to enter.
“Men aged 55 and over, women aged 50 and over, and children up to the age of 12, will be able to enter the Temple Mount – subject to receiving a permit and an advance security assessment,” the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) stated.
“The entry of worshippers will be via the regular crossings following a full security check prior to entering Israel. It is emphasized that there is no limitation regarding Israeli Arabs.”
OBSERVATION - Ground zero for many of the protests and in part for the current Gaza war, the Temple mount is used by islamists to generate fervor against Israel.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Hamas launched a rocket from Gaza. The launch failed and fell in the Gaza Strip.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IDF: A short while ago, the IDF conducted intelligence-based strikes on military sites in southern Lebanon belonging to the Hezbollah terrorist organization in which weapons and rocket launchers belonging to Hezbollah were identified.
The weapons and the rocket launchers in the military sites posed a threat to the State of Israel and constituted a blatant violation of the understandings between Israel and Lebanon.
The Lebanese Al-Manar channel affiliated with Hezbollah reports that at least 20 targets were in the last hour by Israeli warplanes.
Other Lebanese sources report that approximately 30 targets were attacked within 20 minutes and claim that this was the most extensive wave of attacks since the beginning of the ceasefire in Lebanon.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz accused Syrian government forces of massacring Alawites in the Syrian amid circulating videos of public executions: “Jolani (President Al-Sharaa) has removed his mask and revealed his true face: a jihadist terrorist from Al-Qaeda who commits atrocities against the civilian population. Israel will defend itself against any threat from Syria.”
***
Israeli forces enter the town of Jamla in the western countryside of Daraa and carry out a raid on a number of houses in the town
***
An armed organization calling itself the “Islamic Resistance Front in Syria” has demanded that Israeli forces withdraw from southern Syria and the demilitarized zone in the Golan Heights, claiming responsibility for several recent attacks against the Israel Defense Forces (IDF).
The Iran-backed group, formerly known as the “Southern Liberation Front,” has emerged as a new force to oppose Israel, which borders Syria’s southern region. On Tuesday, the nascent militant organization announced that it has become a permanent front aimed at countering attempts at “division and displacement.”
According to its statement, the “resistance” group seeks to be a “unifying force for all segments of Syrian society,” regardless of religion, while prioritizing the protection of the country’s security and territorial integrity, Iraqi-based Shafaq News reported.
“The establishment of The Islamic Resistance Front in Syria is still in its infancy, and it’s unclear how the group is structured, what other armed organizations have joined its cause, and if it is a legitimate threat to Israeli troops operating on the Syrian border,” Sharawi and Truzman explained in the Long War Journal, an FDD publication.
https://www.algemeiner.com/2025/03/07/new-iran-backed-group-emerges-syria-confront-israel/
OBSERVATION - It remains to be seen how tolerant the Sunni regime in Syria is going to be towards a shia militia operating in its southern region, particularly one openly receiving support from Iran.
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
Senior Palestine Liberation Organization Executive Council member, Ahmed Majdalani, said the Palestinian Authority (PA) will cut ties with the United States if President Donald Trump moves forward with his proposal to take control of the Gaza Strip, relocate its residents, and turn the area into “the Riviera of the Middle East.”
In an interview with the Times of Israel, Majdalani said Trump’s proposal for Gaza represents an “existential threat” to the Palestinian cause with its call for the “expulsion” of the Strip’s residents.
When asked repeatedly whether the Palestinian Authority would sever ties with the U.S., Majdalani answered, “Of course.”
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Yemen: The Leader of the Ansar Allah movement, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi: “We announce to the whole world that we will give the mediators a 4-day deadline, then we will resume our naval operations against the enemy, if it does not allow humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip, and we will meet the siege with a siege.”
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Talks on Gaza continue to go no where. Will Israel wait until Ramadan is over before launching the fight to take out Hamas once and for all?
Similar question for Iran - how much time do they have left?
Israeli taking control over sections of S Syria are making more and more sense after observing how the Joleni regime has massacred many in the Latakia. Many say you can put a suit and tie on a jihadist, but he remains a jihadist.
This “Islamic Resistance Front in Syria” may be facing more challenges in their effort to confront Israel than just being an Iranian offshoot militia. They will be forced to operate in Druze territory, a group that has drawn close to Israel and that Israel has reciprocated. Druze suffered under Iranian backed Assad and may not have much tolerance for another Iranian backed element in their lands.
Finally, Israel is taking more liberties in striking Hezbollah targets in Lebanon as the govt there is lax concerning holding up its end of the bargain and demilitarizing Hezbollah and removing their presence to the north of the Litiani River.
Syria -
The uprising has turned into a chaotic mass murdering event as Syrian “outlaw groups” swarmed into Latakia, killing all they deemed to be infidels - Christians and other smaller sects besides Alwaite civilians. Death count is in the multiple hundreds.
Reports in Syria of no fewer than 2,400 Alawite civilians being massacred in coastal cities by the armed forces of the new Syrian regime.
Govt forces (also participated in the slaughter) are now trying to put things back into control.
A military group from the popular forces was arrested for violating instructions and committing violations against civilians. The internal public security forces also began sending security convoys towards the Latakia countryside to protect the residents. The public security worked to close the roads leading to the coast and return people not assigned to military duties.
The Russian Air Force base in Khmeimim has opened its doors to hundreds of Alawite families who have fled from the militants of the Syrian regime of Ahmed al-Shara’a who are threatening to exterminate them.
OBSERVATION - The Syrian govt has tried to project the image of a more moderate force that is willing to extend protections to minority sects. This massive response to a pro-assad uprising that is resulting in massive brutality and mass murder of innocents is seriously tarnishing that front. From a radical islamist point of view, the supporters of Syria’s new govt view their slaughter as completely justifiable and their unrestrained fury evidence that the new regime has a lot of work to do IF they want to be a more moderate govt.
Thanks. BTTT.
For those of you struggling thru your sixth cup of coffee this morning - I salute you. Democrats are calling for a congressional investigation into how Trump stole an hour overnight.
Globalism / Great Reset –
The pope is reportedly stable to slightly improving.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
A UCLA criminal law professor , Peter Arenella is calling for a “violent resistance”.
OBSERVATION - Continued progressive drumbeat calling for violence.
***
Weekend here again, numerous protests scattered across the nation under a variety of grievances. No overt threats of violence, but as always, local acts along with vandalism can occur. Keep up to date on local news and avoid protest areas.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Jan 24, 2025
On Tuesday (SOTU) a House staffer gained entry into one of the House office buildings that leads to the U.S. Capitol. That staffer was in possession of a gun. He was eventually caught and arrested. What makes the problem even worse I’m told the staffer asked (after his arrest) what the problem was with this as no one said anything to him about him bringing the gun in the previous day.
This is the fourth instance of a gun being brought in a building policed by USCP Chief J Thomas Manger since Trump was elected President. What is frightening to me is that both dates that President Trump attended events at the Capitol it was on a date where a gun made it in one of the buildings and I’m told one of the guns made it in a room where President Trump was actually in and only feet away from him.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/03/breaking-house-staffer-gained-entry-one-house-office/
OBSERVATION - Very concerning given the heavy numbers of leftist staffers in the Capitol. Did a guard deliberately ‘miss’ the gun?
POLITICAL FRONT –
MARCH 15, 2025 - CR runs out on funding the govt.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has dismissed three additional supervisors involved in Hurricane Milton’s response, in which aid workers were instructed to bypass homes displaying Trump signs.
Former FEMA Acting Administrator Deanne Criswell had initially told the House Oversight Committee that only one employee was involved. That brings the total number of FEMA employees given the boot to four. The terminations follow weeks of “exhaustive investigation” in which the agency determined that the errant supervisors failed to “meet our standards of conduct” which involves avoiding any partisan behavior.
China –
Three Chinese PLA Navy warships have been sailing for weeks near Australia and New Zealand, in a situation both governments are closely monitoring. The Australian Navy has been monitoring the PLA movements by deploying their own vessels to at times shadow.
The movement is being widely described in regional media as an unprecedented circumnavigation of Australia by the PLA Navy.
As of Thursday, Australia’s military had monitored the flotilla’s movement some 630 nautical miles (1,166km) northwest of Perth, and soon the warships are expected to transit the Sunda Strait, to reenter the South China Sea.
https://thelibertydaily.com/chinese-warships-sail-near-australian-base-hosting-us/
OBSERVATION - Interesting and brash act by China
North/South Korea –
North Korea today unveiled what is believed to be their first ever nuclear-powered strategic guided-missile submarine, under construction at an “undisclosed” shipyard alongside several other semi-modern to modern naval vessels. Moon Keun-sik, a South Korean submarine expert, said that the vessel appeared to be a 6,000-ton-class or 7,000-ton-class submarine which can carry about 10 missiles, stating that the term “strategic guided-missile” suggested that it would carry nuclear-capable ballistic missiles. Despite North Korea possessing an aging fleet of roughly 70 diesel-powered submarines, it is not known how such a heavily sanctioned country could have obtained a nuclear reactor, though it is believed it was likely provided or they had assistance from Russia, possibly in exchange for them recently joining Russia’s war against Ukraine.
OBSERVATION - Most likely Russia supplying either the reactor, or technical staff supporting NK’s construction of one.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Fair conditions with temperatures warming to the 30s - 50s range.
RUMINT – Ukraine focusing on a new effort to take down the Kersch Strait Bridge.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine’s Air Force reports on a Shahed drone attack overnight by Russia. Out of 119 Shaheds launched, 73 were shot down and another 37 were suppressed by electronic warfare and were locationally lost.
Kyiv and southern Ukraine reported Shahed strikes.
Russian losses per 09/03/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1180 men
+6 tanks
+14 AFVs
+58 artillery pieces
+3 MLRS
+2 AD systems
+142 service vehicles
Toretsk
The AFU continued their advance inside the city and has retaken a big part of Zabalka microdistrict, effectively making the Russian corridor to the north of the city closer and closer. If this advance continues, Russians will be forced to retreat or get surrounded.
Ukraine drones attacked an oil refinery in Ryazan and an ethanol plant in Buturlinovka of Voronezh region
Kursk Front -
Between 80 and 100 Russian Special Forces Operators were eliminated earlier today in the Kursk Oblast of Western Russia, after attempting to infiltrate Ukrainian frontline positions near the Town of Sudzha, using tunnels linked to a nearby underground gas pipeline. Russian Special Forces carried out a similar covert-operation during the battle of Avdiivka, which was successful and contributed to the fall of the city.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Sector very active overnight.
Summary —
Numbers and information are fading into an OPSEC fog of war situation by both sides. Casualties being reported do not match the reported intensity of the Russian attack in the Kursk region. Ukraine appears to have been staggered a bit in Kursk and may have lost enough territory to see supply lines challenged. Russia may have used the apparent pause in the south to shift forces north for this attack.
This may account for some of Ukraine’s apparent success in Toretsk.
As Ukraine and Russia are being maneuvered/forced into cease fire and peace talks, fighting in Kursk may increase as well as other sectors as both sides attempt to secure terrain for bargaining chips.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Status of hostage talks / cease fire is uncertain
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Israeli Prime Minister’s office says Israeli negotiators will travel to Doha on Monday for talks on the Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal
Israeli source: It appears that Trump envoy’s talks with Hamas to release American hostages have failed
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
A massive fire erupted earlier today inside an aid warehouse on al-Nasr Street in Gaza City within the Northern Gaza Strip, which quickly spread to a number of warehouses containing food, water and medical supplies, resulting in their total destruction.
***
The Israeli security cabinet is expected to greenlight an expanded voluntary exit program for Palestinians in Gaza during its meeting on Sunday. Defense Minister Israel Katz will establish a new authority to oversee the initiative, aimed at enabling large-scale departures to third countries.
This move follows remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump, who emphasized the importance of allowing Palestinians to leave Gaza if they choose. Until now, Israel has permitted limited exits for medical and humanitarian reasons. The new plan seeks to significantly increase the number of Palestinians able to relocate.
Under the proposal, the newly established authority will manage the safe and controlled movement of Palestinians through Israel to their destination countries. It will oversee security, create designated travel routes, and set up pedestrian checkpoints at Gaza border crossings. Additionally, infrastructure will be developed to facilitate travel by land, sea, and air.
Preparations are already underway to enable departures via Ashdod Port and Ramon Airport. Some sources suggest that once operational, “thousands of Palestinians will leave Gaza every day.”
https://x.com/osint613/status/1898474799208227178?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
OBSERVATION - Fleeing Gazans have the potential to strip a lot of support for Hamas in many ways. This move may also be in anticipation of the next round of fighting which is on the near horizon. Israel may limit ‘safe’ areas, thus increase demands for gazans to get out of dodge.
***
Hamas spokesman Hazem Qassem:
“We have outlined three demands for the negotiations: a prisoner exchange, a full Israeli withdrawal from the Strip, and a commitment not to resume hostilities.
“We have informed mediators that we reject any extension of the first phase of the ceasefire agreement. We are prepared to negotiate a prisoner exchange under new terms in the second phase.
“We have no objection to meeting with U.S. administration representatives, as we recognize their influence in pressuring Israel. While we do not oppose releasing Israeli hostages who hold U.S. citizenship, it will only be done as part of a broader, comprehensive agreement.”
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
Israeli security forces conducting operations across Samaria and meeting localized, violent resistance.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Qatar submits to the U.N. a demand to place all Israeli nuclear facilities under IAEA control and to disarm from its nuclear weapons
***
Qatar’s Prime Minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani, strongly opposed military action on Iran’s nuclear facilities, cautioning of grave repercussions.
Labeling any attack on Iran as a potential “regional catastrophe,” Qatar warned it could destabilize the Gulf and trigger widespread consequences.
Doha also stressed that targeting sites like Bushehr could release contamination into the Persian Gulf, crippling desalination plants and jeopardizing fresh water supplies across the region.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
“Negotiations” with Hamas continue to run hot and cold. However, their demands above are unacceptable to both the US and Israel. Hamas’ efforts to continue to try to get more ‘negotiations’ is only a delaying tactic. Israel’s and the US’ patience is near an end and IF Trump and Netanyahu have agreed to a date for resumption of fighting, Hamas will have to shift their position significantly.
Qatar is in the process of FAFO in regards to ‘demands’ on Israel and any potential strike on Iran’s nuclear program. They have been portraying themselves as moderate, neutral negotiators in the Gaza conflict, but that was just a smoke screen for their real bias. They have been supporting and probably in many ways helping to bankroll Hamas for some time now. All the major political leaders of Hamas live the life of luxury in Qatar. However, recently they have been largely cut out of negotiations, replaced by Egypt and Saudi Arabia, so the latest bleat on Israel’s nuclear capabilities and attacks on Iran may be an attempt to bring them back into the lime light and a place at the negotiating table. However, they have definitely lost any cover of impartiality with these recent demands.
Once again, with the genocidal chaos in Syria, Israel’s steps to expand a security zone into Syria are all the more sensible.
Iran –
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei responds to Trump’s letter: We will not negotiate under pressure from a “bullying” country
Tehran will never accept demands to curb its missile program.
The issue will not be limited to the nuclear file, but they will raise new files and expectations, and we will reject them.
No matter the threats, we should not back down
President Trump: “There’ll be some interesting days ahead. That’s all I can tell you. We’re down to final strokes with Iran.”
“We are at the final moments, we can’t allow them to have nuclear weapons”
OBSERVATION - Some saying Trump is all talk on this, but fail to realize similar talk about the executive actions he’s taken so far. Trump knows his words carry weight and he’s not going to waste credibility saying something his is not willing or planning on carrying out.
***
IRGC official: “True Promise 2 had some flaws that we’re addressing for True Promise 3… There’s no doubt the operation will happen, but only when we can maximize its impact.”
True Promise 2 was the repeatedly postponed attack on Israel on October 1, 2024, involving 200 ballistic missiles—an assault Iran falsely framed as an act of “self-defense.”
***
Continued unprecedented military build-up in Chabahar region. It is a free port situated on the coast of the Gulf of Oman, and is Iran’s southernmost city after Konarak.
Iraq -
The Trump administration has informed the Iraqi government that it will no longer be able to purchase electricity from Iran.
The US administration rescinded a waiver on Saturday that had allowed Iraq to pay Iran for electricity, as part of President Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Tehran.
Syria -
The 77th Division of the Syrian Ministry of Defense is deployed on the Syrian-Lebanese border in anticipation of any move by the Lebanese Hezbollah.
***
The EU condemns the Assadists:
“The European Union strongly condemns the recent attacks by “”pro-Assad elements”” on Jolani government forces in the coastal areas of Syria, and all violence against civilians.”
***
Syrian military and security forces have resumed their counter-insurgence operation in and around the Latakia Governorate in the northwest of the country after a brief pause, as Pro-Assad militias supported by Hezbollah and other Iranian elements continue to launch ambushes on forces under the Syrian Transitional Government. Thousands of civilians have fled to Russia’s Khmeimim Air Base as they attempt to the get away from the fighting, specifically near the city of Jableh, where clashes have grown in intensity over the last 48 hours. Fox News: The death toll in the new civil war in Syria in the last two days is 4,000, and counting.
OBSERVATION - The massive slaughter, is giving the new govt massive PR problems. Of particular note, the Russian air base is still manned by Russians who haven’t been pulled out, potentially indicating Russia’s attempts to keep the facility as they negotiate with the new regime in Damascus.
Misc of Note –
Michael Snyder, a popular doom porn poster is raising fears of an imminent eruption of the Yellowstone super volcano. Must be a slow news day for him. Every few months or so some knucklehead cries the volcano is going to blow, and though they toss a lot of jargon and technical sounding statements, they just simply don’t know what they are talking about.
Lets look at the facts -
Yellowstone is defined as a dormant volcano - so yes there is the potential for a future eruption that could reach massive levels.
Yellowstone is heavily monitored, tracking the activity and movement of magma in the large chambers beneath the volcano. Such movement would be a precursor to a major eruption. So far, no magma movement of concern is noted.
The most dangerous condition at the park is the potential for steam explosions. Most spectacularly, on July 23, 2024, an explosion of hot water, mud, and rock occurred from Black Diamond Pool in Biscuit Basin, Yellowstone National Park, only about 2 miles northwest of Old Faithful. No precursors to the event were detected by monitoring instruments. I drove by the site this past fall - the rock blown out was spectacular and large. Similar exploding occurs annually, though most reportedly occur in the backcountry, away from heavily touristed areas. In 2024, one of these hit Norris Geyser Basin. The April 15 explosion, which left a crater about 10 feet across along with an area of disrupted ground. The explosion was not witnessed because few people were in the park during the seasonal closure, but it was detected in acoustic and seismic monitoring,
So when doom porn providers start warning that Yellowstone super volcano is ‘roaring back to life’, take it with a grain of salt.
LOL - wasn't expecting the punchline ... but you're probably right - they and their MSM thugs are checking...
Iran's going to be a tough nut to crack - that said, you're right - Trump's words carry weight... as they should.
He can’t half step it. When the bombs drop he just can’t declare victory but continue to totally rubble the whole program.
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