Tomorrow may be a shorter post - have early morning requirements
There will be no post Monday as I will be getting a routine medical procedure that occurs every 5 years first thing in the morning.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Globalist European nations convulsing over Trump’s stand in the press conference yesterday.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
The apparent break with Ukraine may set off some pro-Ukraine protests this weekend. However, the potential for violence is low. Some leftist elements may attempt to hijack elements to forge more anti-Trump sentiments that can be used for other, more violent, actions.
Again, weekly protests on a variety of issues expected in cities across the US. Threat of violence continues to be low but some localized incidents may happen. Situational awareness is critical.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025
MARCH 15, 2025 - CR runs out on funding the govt.
***
California’s cage-free chicken regulation in the midst of a bird flu pandemic has driven the cost of a dozen eggs above $10 in the state - far above the cost in other areas of the U.S. - the USDA reports.
A USDA press release published Wednesday on efforts to combat high prices nationwide describes the inflationary impact of California’s “recent regulatory burdens” on the cost of eggs in the state:
“USDA will educate consumers and Congress on the need to fix the problem of geographical price differences for eggs, such as in California, where recent regulatory burdens, in addition to avian flu, have resulted in the price of eggs being 60% higher than other regions of the country.”
California’s Proposition 12, which went into effect in 2022, requires that all eggs sold in the state come from cage-free hens, including eggs imported from other states.
Egg prices in the state spiked dramatically over the next year, and cost consumers $23 million annually, Food Dive reported in February of 2023, noting Californians lost access to eggs from about two-thirds of the nation’s egg-laying flocks:
“After California’s law, known as Proposition 12, took effect, egg prices in that state increased dramatically. Californians paid $5.62 for a dozen eggs in early February, compared to $3.05 for non-cage free eggs in the Midwest, according to The Wall Street Journal.
“Research published in the American Journal of Agricultural Economics projected the law will result in an annual loss of $23 million for consumers in the state.
“Currently cage-free eggs make up 34.6% of the total egg-laying flocks in the U.S., according to WATT Poultry.”
https://mrctv.org/blog/craig-bannister/californias-cage-free-egg-reg-causes-prices-crack-10-dozen
OBSERVATION - This stresses other states as well, even though they don’t have the free range requirements. Competition for replacement egg laying hens will remain high, keeping prices high for the near term. Until the govt finds some way of addressing bird flu other than the mass destruction of flocks the chicken/egg market will remain stressed and costly.
POLITICAL FRONT –
MARCH 15, 2025 - CR runs out on funding the govt.
Watching weekend maneuvering on key political items, such as the Epstine documents, illegal immigration, and the budget bill. I expect a lot of bloviation regarding Ukraine on the talking heads Sunday shows.
INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –
The State Department is ending its support for Ukraine’s power grid restoration
***
Senior U.S. official says clash between Zelenskiy and Trump will likely accelerate efforts to investigate waste, fraud, and abuse in U.S. aid to Ukraine
***
Adversarial governments to the United States, including in Russia and China, are attempting to hire former federal employees who have been fired from the Trump administration after thousands of employees have been let go since President Donald Trump took office, according to CNN.
The outlet reported that four sources familiar with US intelligence being gathered on the issue said that Russia and China have been making a concerted effort to recruit those who feel they have been targeted by the administration because of getting fired or those that fear they will be fired.
“It doesn’t take a lot of imagination to see that these cast aside federal workers with a wealth of institutional knowledge represent staggeringly attractive targets to the intelligence services of our competitors and adversaries,” one source told the outlet.
Another source told reporters at CNN that China and Russia think that the staffers “are at their most vulnerable right now,” that they are “out of a job [and] bitter about being fired.”
TRUMP Watch –
February went out with a massive explosion. Ukraine’s Zelensky came to the WH with one simple task - sign a minerals agreement that would be a component to ending the war with Russia. Then he stepped on himself -
A press briefing in the Oval Office with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy turned into an all-out brawl of words, with President Donald Trump warning the European leader that he is “gambling with World War III.”
The escalation began after Zelenskyy repeatedly interrupted the President, delivered back-handed remarks, and backed out of agreeing to a ceasefire in front of reporters.
Vice President JD Vance admonished the Ukrainian President for showing clear disrespect to the United States and its leadership.
“Do you think that it’s respectful to come to the Oval Office of the United States of America and attack the administration that is trying to prevent the destruction of your country?” Vance cautioned after being questioned by Zelenskyy in the public briefing.
Zelenskyy fired back with a warning to the United States, insisting that while America has “a nice ocean” separating them from the war with Russia as opposed to Europe, “you will feel it in the future.”
“Don’t tell us what we’re going to feel,” Trump responded strongly. “We’re trying to solve a problem… Remember this: you’re in no position to dictate what we’re going to feel… You’re right now, not in a very good position. You don’t have the cards right now with us.”
“I’m not playing cards right now,” Zelenskyy rebuked, later scolding the American leaders for “speak[ing] very loudly.”
“You are playing cards,” Trump asserted. “You’re gambling with the lives of millions of people. You’re gambling with World War III, and what you’re doing is very disrespectful to the country, this country…”
Zelenskyy was also heard calling Vance a “b!tch” in Ukrainian.
Trump then commenced to show Zelenskyy door and had them ushered straight out of the WH.
Trump says Zelensky can “come back when he is ready.” “We had a very meaningful meeting in the White House today. Much was learned that could never be understood without conversation under such fire and pressure. It’s amazing what comes out through emotion, and I have determined that President Zelenskyy is not ready for Peace if America is involved, because he feels our involvement gives him a big advantage in negotiations. I don’t want advantage, I want PEACE. He disrespected the United States of America in its cherished Oval Office. He can come back when he is ready for Peace.”
***
Zelensky in an interview with Fox News.
He says he doesn’t think he did anything wrong during the exchange with Trump and therefore doesn’t feel the need to apologize to him.
The ultimate question, as Baier rightly asked, is how does this all end? Zelenskyy’s response was nothing short of stunning: “I think Europe is ready to help us with financing a big army... now we want just to find a place for our biggest strategic partner. We don’t have enough weapon to push them out and we don’t see now very big volume of new support from the United States, with all due respect, again. With security guarantee, we will be ready.”
This shows a breathtaking lack of self-awareness. Trump has long made it clear he has no interest in being Ukraine’s bank to fund an endless war that Ukraine can’t win. As Trump said in the meeting, without the aid and military equipment from the United States, the war would have ended in two weeks—and not to Ukraine’s benefit.
One thing is for sure: This is not 2022, and Americans are no longer interested in spending billions of dollars to fund Ukraine’s war effort, and yet he still wants more money.
***
“Trump had largely acquiesced to a very Ukraine-friendly deal over the last few days (including lowering the repayment amount to just $90 billion). The negotiations were over. All the Ukrainian president had to do was show up, shake hands, smile for the cameras, and sign the deal. Zelensky attempt to lecture Trump and Vance for the cameras was an ego move that he didn’t have the leverage to pull off.
By trying to embarrass and undermine the U.S. president in public, he destroyed an already frayed relationship. In doing so, he might have cost his country its war. “
OBSERVATION - Unbelievable and hard to even figure out where to begin.
Zelensky decided it’d be a great idea to try to publicly embarrass Trump and Vice President JD Vance in front of the press. He was way out of his league.
The minerals deal was a block in the efforts to end the war, giving the US a level of skin in the game that could be leveraged against putin / Russia. Zelensky wanted more blank checks for the war.
Now the ball is squarely in Europe’s court, Trump has told them time and again they have to step up for their defense needs and now it is go time for them. I don’t think Trump had this outcome planned or desired, but that is one of his goals.
Domestically, expect shrieking and gnashing of teeth by the globalists / neocons over how we’ve surrendered to Russia or something similar.
ONE LAST THING - Ukraine collaborated with the biden crime family in a significant manner over the past nearly 20 years, even resulting in an impeachment of Trump over investigation the biden involvement in criminal businesses. I think that Trump has attempted to be an honest broker going beyond this, but that attempt was broken by Zelensky.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying from single digits to the low 30s range, partly to mostly cloudy.
***
The Trump administration is considering ending all ongoing shipments of military aid to Ukraine in response to Zelensky’s remarks in the Oval Office on Friday and his perceived intransigence in the peace process, per senior administration official, - Washington Post
***
President Zelensky just got off the phone with French President Macron and now is talking to NATO secretary general Rutte.
Zelensky arrived in London this morning for high-level talks with European governments.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Beside Zelensky’s blow up at the WH -
Russia launched 154 drones. A total of 103 were shot down and another 51 were suppressed by electronic warfare.
Russian losses per 01/03/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff
+1050 men
+11 tanks
+15 AFVs
+81 artillery pieces
+1 MLRS
+1 AD systems
+107 service vehicles
Russian drones did hit Odesa and 12 Russian suicide drones on the power plant of the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv.
This brings into question the effectiveness of Russian drone reports.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Skudne and Burlatske of Donetsk region of Ukraine
Summary —
I stated yesterday -
“Politics of a ceasefire continue. Results of todays’ talks will be very important.”
We’ve seen the ‘results’ of yesterday’s talks. Zelensky totally screwed the pooch. The bigger issue to Ukraine is what will happen domestically from his diplomatic disaster? What impacts on the military and its morale in holding the line? Will Zelensky face impeachment/removal or a snap election?
On the front so far things have essentially stagnated, Russia has lost the initiative and momentum for the most part. Still throwing massive numbers of Shaheds.
However, monitoring to see if the lowered activity is reflective of Russia redeploying forces to focus on the Kostyantynivka sector and drawing down from the Pokrovsk sector. Russia has lost a lot of assets over the past few months and gained limited terrain in the effort, it may take a bit of time to reconstitute forces for a new offensive target.
Europe / NATO General –
With the exception of Hungary, there was a united howl of support for Ukraine by European countries and EU leadership, following Zelensky’s melt down at the WH yesterday. One of the key take aways from the event is that US is not going to continue to bankroll a war for Europeans.
Zelensky is scheduled to meet with European leaders this weekend and lick his wounds.
Key items I’m watching is to what extent European nations, primarily France, Germany and Great Britain, are willing to do at this stage. Dump even more weapons and money into the war or will they start deploying forces in country?
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Hostage talks breaking down.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
State Dept just approved a $2.04 billion arms sale to Israel, including over 35,000 bombs and 4,000 bunker busters, bypassing congressional review by declaring an “emergency.” Deliveries start in 2026
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Hamas spokesman Hazem Qassem: The horizon is still available for mediators to pressure Israel to stop evading the implementation of the agreement
Hamas said on Saturday that it rejected Israel’s “formulation” of extending the first phase of the ceasefire in Gaza, on the day the first stage of the deal was set to expire.
The group’s spokesperson Hazem Qassem also told Al-Araby TV there were no current talks for a second ceasefire phase in Gaza with the group.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Lebanon’s Beirut airport authorities seized $2.5 million in cash meant for Hezbollah from a man arriving from Turkey, reports Reuters.
Israel recently accused Turkey of cooperating with Iran to smuggle funds to Hezbollah.
***
Israel has notified Lebanon that if Hezbollah continues violating the agreement, including smuggling weapons in the Harmel area, it will launch attacks on Hezbollah targets across Lebanon, including Dahya in Beirut.
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
Israeli security forces continue to aggressively move on terror targets in Samaria and Judea.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthi leader threatens: “If the war in Gaza resumes, all of Israel – and especially Tel Aviv – will be under fire.”
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Guterres: Gaza and the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, must be treated as one entity governed by a Palestinian government
Guterres: Gaza must remain an integral part of an independent, democratic and sovereign Palestinian state
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
As the dust settles with blow up with Ukraine, Israel is moving forward with its preparations for additional fighting. Hamas has totally rejected the extension of the Phase 1 conditions, and Israel will not go into Phase 2 without more hostages being released. I expect scrambling by Qatar and Egypt to get Hamas back on track, but I don’t think they’ll be successful. Probably just a few weeks before high intensity war breaks out again in Gaza.
Israel is still enraged over the treatment of hostages by Hamas and the next round of fighting will be intense and Hamas will face massive losses as they lose their ‘safe areas’ from biden’s era.
Israel is taking a more aggressive posture towards Hezbollah, giving Lebanon notice that they are not upholding their end of the deal to demilitarize Hezbollah. Targeting the Dahya district is Beirut is a very significant warning - this is the core district of Hezbollah power in the capitol, set up initially thinking that Israel would not strike it - which they were wrong. Escalation to such strikes will see attempts by Hezbollah to strike back, further granting Israel the license to hit other targets.
Syria -
Reuters: Israel is lobbying the U.S. to keep Syria weak and decentralized, including by letting Russia keep its military bases there to counter Turkey’s growing influence in the country, four sources said.
Thanks Godzilla.
“Why, by interweaving our destiny with that of any part of Europe, entangle our peace and prosperity in the toils of European ambition, rivalship, interest, humor, or caprice?
It is our true policy to steer clear of permanent alliances with any portion of the foreign world...”
George Washington’s Farewell Adress
A bit short and abrupt today.
There will be no post Monday as I will be getting a routine medical procedure that occurs every 5 years first thing in the morning.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Jan 24, 2025
Redditors are talking about shooting JD Vance during his up coming ski trip to Vermont
Vice President JD Vance and his family were moved to an “undisclosed location” after they were met with pro-Ukrainian protesters outside of a ski resort in Vermont.
Protesters could be seen holding signs at Sugarbush Ski Resort that read “Vance is a traitor. Go ski in Russia,” and “JD Vance is Nazi scum,” according to a post on X from Nana Sajaia, an associate producer with Fox News.
***
Multiple aircraft violated airspace over Palm Beach, Florida. Three civilian aircraft were escorted out of the area by F-16 fighter jets.
The incidents occurred at 11:05 a.m., 12:10 p.m. and 12:50 p.m.
During 2 of the intercepts the fighter jets had to deploy flares.
All 3 aircraft were safely escorted from the area by USAF jets.
OBSERVATION - This is an unusually high number of incidents in one day. Some would call this ‘probing’ his security.
POLITICAL FRONT –
MARCH 15, 2025 - CR runs out on funding the govt.
“Before meeting Trump, Zelensky met with anti-Trump Democrats who advised him to reject the terms of the mineral deal the president was offering, according to Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn)”
INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –
Following yesterday’s White House events, Haltbakk Bunkers, one of Norway’s largest marine fuel companies, has reportedly announced it will stop refueling U.S. Navy vessels. The company is also calling on other European firms to deny service to American forces.
Statement from Minister of Defence Tore O. Sandvik on reports concerning naval support
“We have seen reports raising concerns about support for US Navy vessels in Norway. This is not in line with the Norwegian government’s policy.”
“I can confirm that all requested support has been provided. The U.S. and Norway maintain a close and strong defense cooperation. American forces will continue to receive the supply and support they require from Norway.”
Illegal Immigration –
Illegal border crossings have dropped to levels that have not been seen in more than two decades during President Donald Trump’s first month in office, according to government statistics.
The Border Patrol last month reported apprehending about 8,450 migrants crossing into the United States between official entry points at the U.S.-Mexico border, according to preliminary statistics, reports CBS News Saturday.
The only other time monthly apprehensions came to being that low in the past 25 years also occurred when Trump was in office, with approximately 11,000 migrants being apprehended at the southwest border in April 2017, the agency’s data shows.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/border-crossing-trump/2025/03/01/id/1200972/
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying from single digits to the low 30s range, partly to mostly cloudy.
***
Trump administration press secretary Caroline Leavitt stated that the U.S. will no longer provide military assistance to Ukraine because their priority is peace negotiations.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine’s Air Force repelled a Russian drone attack. Out of 79 launched , 63 were shot down and 16 more were lost in location, due to electronic warfare.
Russian losses per 02/03/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1110 men
+8 tanks
+25 AFVs
+51 artillery systems
+2 MLRS
+3 AD systems
+117 service vehicles
Interesting things are happening in Toretsk. Russia forces there are overstretched in an attempt to gain more terrain before negotiations, and as many predicted logistic problems start to hit. Ukraine closing it off with a pincer move. Fighting continues in the city center, and the enemy is losing control. There are reports of complete encirclement of Russian occupiers in several areas
Summary —
Zelenski FA’d, now he is in FO mode.
Ukraine appears to have caught a significant Russian element who overran their support and are in the process of cutting it off.
Saheds giving is a rest with a much lower number overnight.
Belarus -
Putin has signed a law ratifying the security treaty with Belarus. Russia can now officially deploy military bases and troops in Belarus and use nuclear weapons to defend the “Union State,” even in response to conventional attacks.
Europe / NATO General –
UK PM Starmer and French President Macron have arrived at the London summit on Ukraine, per Sky News. They will soon be joined by Zelensky and leaders from Italy, Germany, Denmark, Norway, Poland, Finland, and Romania. Representatives from Canada and Turkey are also expected to attend
UK Starmer: We need peace that guarantees Ukraine’s sovereignty, backed by strong security guarantees
Reuters- French President Emmanuel Macron has said he is ready to start discussions on nuclear deterrence for Europe, hinting France could help to protect other EU countries, given the security threats posed by Russia.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Phase 1 period is done, no movement by Hamas to extend
- The Israel calling up another 400,000 reserve soldiers.
- IDF positioning itself to protect Druze in a southern suburb of Damascus.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
The Qatari-based Al-Jazeera network published details of the negotiations that they claim took place during the last 48 hours, between the Israeli negotiating team and the mediators.
According to the report, Israel demanded that Hamas release five living hostages and 10 slain hostages - in exchange for extending the first phase by a week, the release of more terrorists from Israeli prisons, and increasing aid into Gaza, in preparation for phase two of the ceasefire.
Israel requested Hamas’ response to the proposal by midnight on Friday. However, Hamas informed the mediators of the rejection of the proposals - which it said constituted a violation of the agreement.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/404728
***
Israeli Prime Minister’s office says Israel agreed to a U.S. proposal for extending the Gaza ceasefire in return for release of hostages but claims Hamas refuses
***
The Israeli government confirms this morning - the possibility of calling up another 400,000 reserve soldiers.
***
Rubio: “I have signed a declaration to use emergency authorities to expedite the delivery of approximately $4 billion in military assistance to Israel.”
“Since taking office, the Trump Administration has approved nearly $12 billion in major FMS (Foreign Military Sales) sales to Israel.”
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Israeli Prime Minister: We have agreed to a proposal by US envoy Steve Witkoff for a temporary truce in Gaza during Ramadan
***
Senior Israeli Security Official: “Two options—all hostage release or war. If fighting resumes, it will be more aggressive with Trump’s backing
***
Netanyahu Halts Aid to Gaza After Ceasefire Phase Ends
Netanyahu:
“All goods and supplies will be stopped from entering the Gaza Strip starting this morning.”
“The decision was made with the end of the first phase of the deal and Hamas’s refusal to accept Witkoff’s plan to continue the talks.”
Hamas:
Stopping the entry of aid means Israel’s decision to starve the residents of the Strip. There must be a firm international position to pressure Israel to stop starving the residents of the Strip.”
NOTE - we all saw how famished they were during those hostage release ceremonies
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
The Syrian regime has an ultimatum to the Druze of Jermana: You have 5 days to surrender and lay down the weapons, otherwise massive reinforcements will arrive in the village.
It seems that the new Syrian regime is also on a collision course with Israel, as Netanyahu and Katz have announced that the IDF will prepare to defend the Druze.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz have instructed the Israeli army to “prepare to defend” the Druze-majority city of Jaramana on the outskirts of Damascus in Syria. A statement issued by Katz’s office says the city is “currently under attack by the forces of the Syrian regime.”
Druze leaders from Suwayda arrive in the city of Jaramana, headed by Laith al-Balous and Suleiman Abdel Baqi, to lead the truce negotiations
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Phase 1 is effectively over. Israel may extend a cease fire for anther month but is calling up forces to deal with Hamas at its conclusion. Israel giving Hamas an opportunity to release more hostages per Phase 1 mechanisms but they are refusing.
Israel may be getting into a scrum with Syrian militia elements at the very border of Damascus. Israel values the support of the Druze as an ally to be a buffer from the islamist new Syrian govt. This southern area of Syria was one of the major groups that rebelled against Assad. Now the new Syrian order — and in this case seems to be mostly islamic militia groups - are seeking to disarm and subjugate the Druze. An Israeli ground effort to support them would bring them closer to Damascus than even the Yon Kippur war.