CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
Pro-Hamxs protesters have occupied Milstein Library at Barnard College in NYC, declaring it the “Dr. Hussam Abu Safiya Liberated Zone.”
OBSERVATION - I guess that March is the start of college students trying to get cabin fever out of their systems by playing hamas and disrupting colleges/universities again. Milk-toast college president failing to stand up to these usurpers is only encouraging them. I bet full well that other colleges across the country are looking to see how this first insurrection of the season plays out.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Jan 24, 2025
A Portland far-left extremist has been arrested over the firebombing and shooting attacks on Tesla in Salem, Ore.
Adam Matthew Lansky (b. Nov 1983) has been federally charged by the DOJ with illegally possessing an unregistered destructive device. He’s accused of being part of the Jan. 20 firebombing attack on the Tesla store and the Feb. 19 shooting there. Lansky allegedly pointed a semi-automatic rifle at a witness during the first incident.
https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1897490395405156627?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
OBSERVATION - Crossover with CW2 conditions. The left is increasing attacks on Tesla retailers and owners nation wide, reflecting frenzied calls on social media sites like Reddit and others.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025
MARCH 15, 2025 - CR runs out on funding the govt.
***
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggested that the White House could reach a compromise with Canada and Mexico to cushion the tariff-driven economic blows.
In a March 4 interview with Fox Business, Lutnick revealed that he is constantly on the phone with Canadian and Mexican officials and noted that the president could meet them “in the middle some way” on March 5.
“And the president is listening because, you know, he’s very, very fair and very reasonable. So I think he’s going to work something out with them,” Lutnick said.
He later clarified to Bloomberg that some product categories, such as automobiles, could be exempted from the 25 percent tariffs.
RELATED -
Automakers received temporary reprieve Wednesday from US President Donald Trump’s tariffs targeting Canada and Mexico, as concerns mounted over consumer impacts and talks with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau yielded no immediate breakthrough.
Following discussions with the “Big Three” US automakers — Stellantis, Ford and General Motors — Trump decided to “give a one-month exemption on any autos coming through USMCA,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said, referring to the North American free trade pact.
“They made the ask, and the president is happy to do it,” Leavitt told reporters.
https://www.breitbart.com/news/us-signals-possible-exemptions-in-canada-mexico-tariffs/
POLITICAL FRONT –
MARCH 15, 2025 - CR runs out on funding the govt.
Missouri AG Andrew Bailey is calling on the DOJ to investigate whether President Biden’s cognitive decline has enabled unelected staff to advance radical policies without his informed approval.
Bailey argues that if these claims are true, the executive orders, pardons, and other actions in question would be unconstitutional and legally void.
OBSERVATION - I’ve noted that biden’s lack of mental facilities bring into question the plethora of decisions he is said to have made during his reign. If this does expand into a full investigation - things could get REALLY ugly fast.
***
Fallout against democrat behavior at the Trump address the other night continues.
***
Noting also considerable action on the lawfare front, wins/losses will continue until the USSC is FORCED of officially confront judicial overreach by lower level courts. This will take time.
Illegal Immigration –
Trump’s administration is planning to revoke temporary legal status for some 240,000 Ukrainians who fled the war, potentially putting them on a fast-track to deportation, - Reuters
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov: deployment of European troops into Ukraine would mean direct involvement of NATO in the war with Russia
Lavrov says Macron’s words about preparation of nuclear weapons is a threat against Russia(Macron proposed to talk on nuclear deterrence for Europe)
RUMINT-
Kremlin officials announced their intention of taking advantage of the suspension of US military aid and intelligence sharing to make additional battlefield gains.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Fair conditions with temperatures warming to the 30s - 50s range.
RUMINT –
Politico: “Four senior members of Donald Trump’s entourage have held secret discussions with some of Kyiv’s top political opponents to Volodymyr Zelenskyy
***
President of Ukraine Zelensky has arrived at special EU summit in Brussels
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia launched missiles and drones overnight. Out of 122 Shaheds launched, 68 were shot down and 43 were suppressed by electronic warfare. Also two Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles were launched.
Russian losses per 06/03/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
+1140 men
+5 tanks
+7 AFVs
+21 artillery systems
+2 AD systems
+94 service vehicles
Search and rescue operation has been concluded on the site of Russian missile strike in Kryvyi Rih. Final death toll: 4 killed, 32 wounded. Russia claims the hotel housed military forces.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russian milbloggers report that a Ukrainian local counteroffensive near Pokrovsk has started.
“Ukrainian forces expanded their assault today, achieving significant tactical gains. Fighting is intense, with up to two brigades attacking from Pokrovsk and one from Uspenivka. Russian forces are struggling but holding,” they add
NOTE - This attack appears to be hitting the flank of the Russian salient in the area.
***
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Andriyivka village of Donetsk region of Ukraine
Summary —
Moderate levels of fighting continue with essentially no changes to the front lines. A Ukrainian local counteroffensive near Pokrovsk would help relieve much pressure on the city and set back Russian efforts to envelope it.
Rumors of Russia attempting to take advantage and press new offensive actions are interesting given that forces in key front areas have been almost maxed out by the meat attack strategy of the past few months. I’m not sure Russia possesses enough operational reserve forces to mount anything larger than we have seen this year.
Loss of some US munitions may not be as devastating in some ways. FPV drones have become the primary weapon used along the front and are causing the greatest levels of causalities. Ukraine’s industry is cranking them out by the millions/year rate and unless Russia comes up with a more effective counter drone technology, they will continue to dominate the battlefield.
Zelensky meeting with EU leadership in the next couple days. Not sure how much he can expect other than verbal support. What is increasing concerning is the rising rhetoric of France, Britain and even Germany to some extent placing forces in Ukraine.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Trump throws down gauntlet against Hamas
- Uncertain progress on Phase 2 talks
- IDF: The Israeli Air Force in a Joint Aerial Exercise with the U.S. Air Force
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Following his meeting with surviving Hamas hostages, President Trump issued the following statement -
“Shalom Hamas” means Hello and Goodbye - You can choose. Release all of the Hostages now, not later, and immediately return all of the dead bodies of the people you murdered, or it is OVER for you. Only sick and twisted people keep bodies, and you are sick and twisted! I am sending Israel everything it needs to finish the job, not a single Hamas member will be safe if you don’t do as I say. I have just met with your former Hostages whose lives you have destroyed. This is your last warning! For the leadership, now is the time to leave Gaza, while you still have a chance. Also, to the People of Gaza: A beautiful Future awaits, but not if you hold Hostages. If you do, you are DEAD! Make a SMART decision. RELEASE THE HOSTAGES NOW, OR THERE WILL BE HELL TO PAY LATER!
DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
***
Israeli Defense Minister: We are committed to eliminating the Iranian nuclear threat
***
Incoming IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir told the high command on Thursday night that 2025 will be a year of war focused on Gaza and Iran, with other fronts also being given attention.
He said that he will emphasize the concept of “victory” as an important value, as, in recent years, the IDF had been focused on relative victory or deterrence.
Additionally, he has decided that all efforts will be made to return the hostages from Hamas, though no specific policy changes have been named.
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-844875
***
This week, the Israeli Air Force conducted a joint aerial exercise with the U.S. Air Force.
The exercise aimed to strengthen and maintain the long-standing cooperation between the forces while expanding connectivity and building integrated capabilities for a range of scenarios.
As part of the exercise, Israeli F-35i and F-15i aircraft flew alongside a U.S. B-52 strategic bomber. During the flight, the forces practiced operational coordination between the two militaries to enhance their ability to address various regional threats.
The cooperation between the IDF and CENTCOM (United States Central Command) reflects the strategic alliance and close ties that continue to develop and strengthen between the militaries over time.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Hamas spokesman Hazem Qassem says “Trump’s threats complicate issues related to the ceasefire agreement. Trump should pressure Netanyahu to start negotiations on the second phase of the Gaza agreement
***
The Israeli military confirms conducting a drone strike earlier today in northern Gaza, targeting individuals spotted planting an explosive near IDF forces. According to Palestinian media, the strike resulted in one elimination and multiple injuries.
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
Israeli army Spokesperson: 90 wanted individuals arrested and 14 weapons confiscated: Security forces activity in Judea and Samaria during the past week
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Major hurdles facing Phase 2 agreements and the clock is ticking.
Hamas’ response to Trump’s threats reflect the arab mentality of displayed strength vs rhetoric at play. Hopefully Trump recognizes this and has demonstrated it in the past in his dealings with the Taliban when he dropped a MOAB on a major Taliban facility when they were’t playing according to his rules. Taliban quickly returned to behaving correctly. What should scare Hamas is that Trump correctly links Gaza to Hamas in that Gazans have captured and held hostages, not just hamas. Would Trump drop another MOAB on a target of opportunity in Gaza - very likely.
Second thing driving Trump on this is his meeting with released hostages and hearing their first hand accounts of captivity and brutality. Trump has a strong sense of justice and may see US actions as justice toward Hamas.
As everything counts down, Israel has essentially been given a free hand in dealing with Hamas and the US may well join the effort. The next round promises potentially be very brutal for hamas.
On the Iranian aspect, reports of uranium enrichment approaching the 90% levels should be making Iran’s leadership very nervous and not confident. The joint Israel/US airfares training suggests the next strike on Iran has the potential to be exceptionally brutal as well. IAF can sweep the ground of reconstituted Iranian air defenses while USAF heavy bombers lead by B2s carrying massive ground penetrating bombs hit the deepest targets.
Iranian threats to US friendly gulf nations as well as the Straits of Hormuz will need to be covered, so I’m watching to see if additional CSG assets are headed to the area as an indicator. I don’t see the USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70), currently in S Korea, making the play towards the region as Chinese threats are too high. The USS Harry Truman is still in the Red Sea region, following repairs but may soon be looking at rotation out due to duration of deployment. The USS George Washington is currently in Japan and could deploy but will require time to get the CSG to sea.
Iran –
U.S. Intelligence sources say Iran is enriching uranium above 80% purity at the Fordow Enrichment Plant
OBSERVATION - (see also discussion under Israel above) A military strike by BOTH Israel and the US may have stepped closer to becoming fact if this report is true. Announced increased enrichment amounts by Iran are already public from them and on the surface suggest the push towards 90% purity (weapons grade) is an ongoing effort.
***
Reuters report: The Trump administration is planning another move against Iran’s arms smuggling - and is preparing to stop tankers at sea under the authority of the Non-Proliferation Treaty. “You don’t have to sink ships or stop people, just delay the shipments to make people understand that it’s not worth it,” one of the sources said. The plan is to advance steps by the US and its allies to stop tankers carrying Iranian oil at key points at sea, such as the Strait of Malacca and other shipping lanes
OBSERVATION - Part of the ‘maximum pressure’ doctrine. Doing so away from the Arabian Sea and the Straits of Hormuz prevent Iranian ground based assets from interfering or defending these Iranian tankers.
Syria -
Russian jets reported seen flying over parts of Syria.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
The State Dept. revoked the first visa for a student who was cited for criminal behavior in connection with Hamas-supporting disruptions at universities.
ICE will now proceed with removing this individual from the United States.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025
MARCH 15, 2025 - CR runs out on funding the govt.
***
House Taxation Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-MO) said the debt ceiling could be breached as early as May if the U.S. government collects less tax revenue than expected this year. Finance and economic analysts said the U.S. could hit the debt ceiling between July and August.
POLITICAL FRONT –
MARCH 15, 2025 - CR runs out on funding the govt.
President Donald Trump on Thursday stripped security clearances from a law firm linked to the 2016 election investigation into his ties to Russia.
‘This is an absolute honor to sign,’ said Trump as he put his signature on an Executive Order suspending clearance from staff at Perkins Coie.
‘What they’ve done is just terrible. It’s weaponization ... you could say weaponization against a political opponent, and it should never be allowed to happen again.’
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14470515/donald-trump-security-law-perkins-coie.html
Illegal Immigration –
White House spokesperson on revocation of temporary protection status of Ukrainians in U.S.: This is more fake news from Reuters based on anonymous sources who have no idea what they are talking about. The truth: no decision has been made at this time
https://x.com/PressSec/status/1897667362897219916
***
NYC to ignore ICE detainer on illegal immigrant who set woman on fire in subway
North/South Korea –
After a South Korean court approved the revocation of the detention order against impeached South Korean President Yoon Seok-yeol, the embattled decision-maker is set to be released from a detention facility today. His political allies have decried his arrest and subsequent detention and have lauded the decision by the court.
OBSERVATION - SK politics is still in turmoil.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
Trump evaluating large scale sanctions and tariffs against Russia to start forcing them to the peace table.
OBSERVATION - Trump has been allowing Russia to think that they are getting their way, but he isn’t stupid. He knows that Russia will not agree to any peace plan without total surrender of Ukraine - something unacceptable to Trump - despite all the current rhetoric. He is working one piece of the puzzle at a time, Ukraine, Europe and now pivoting on Russia.
***
Russian MFA Spokesperson Maria Zakharova rejected the possibility of a negotiated ceasefire and the deployment of European troops to Ukraine on March 6 and claimed that Russia considers any proposal that gives Ukraine a “respite” along the frontline as unacceptable.
Lavrov and Zakharova are explicitly rejecting US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s February 12 suggestion that European and non-European countries should station troops in Ukraine to enforce any future peace agreement.
(ISW). Putin stated during a visit to the Defenders of the Fatherland Foundation’s Moscow branch on March 6 that Russia does not intend to “give in to anyone” or make any compromises in future peace negotiations.
Putin alluded to the Russian Revolution, noted that Russian society collapsed during the First World War, and urged Russians to maintain support and unity as the war continues.
Putin stated that Russia “will not give up” its “own” territory in future peace negotiations — likely referring to illegally annexed territory in occupied Ukraine.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Fair conditions with temperatures warming to the 30s - 50s range.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia attacked Ukraine with a large amount of missiles and drones overnight. The Air Force reports that both F-16’s and Mirage-2000 jets were involved in repelling the attack. This is the first time, French-supplied Mirage 2000-5F fighters in Ukrainian service engaged Russian drones and cruise missiles.
Shot down:
25/35 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles
8/8 Kalibr cruise missiles
0/3 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles
0/4 S-300 ballistic missiles
1/8 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles
186/194 Shahed drones (100 shot down, 86 suppressed)
Russian missiles, mainly aimed for Ukraine’s gas and energy infrastructure. Explosions in Poltava, Kharkiv, Ternopil, Vinnytsia, Ivano-Frankivsk and other regions.
Russian losses per 07/03/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1150 men
+3 tanks
+23 AFVs
+16 artillery systems
Summary —
Moderate fighting indicated along the eastern front. With rumors that Russia is planning to refocus its offensive efforts against Kostyantynivka region, the down grade in fighting may reflect a tactical ‘pause’ to permit readjustment of forces to that region, while continuing to fix Ukraine forces in place. I don’t have the info yet to confirm.
Bigger story is that Russia integrated cruse missiles into the mass firing of Shahed drones, obtaining a degree of success due to saturation of air defense assets. Attack likely in response to recent successful Ukraine attacks on Russian petroleum refinery and related targets.
In spite of vocal support, EU is incapable of supplying the materials necessary for Ukraine in the long run. Zelensky now appears to be doing 180s on his policies and goals for the war on nearly an hourly basis.
OTOH, Trump may be pivoting against Russia (see above) to bring them inline with his thoughts for peace in the region.
Europe / NATO General –
EU foreign policy chief: We are working to ramp up arms production to speed up deliveries to Ukraine
European Council President: We need to support Ukraine and ensure a just and lasting peace in cooperation with our international partners
OBSERVATION - Europe at this stage can only offer words of encouragement to Ukraine.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Extension of Phase 1 ceasefire and Phase 2 have hit a stalemate.
- Hamas rejected the “Wittkoff Outline”
- Saturday marks the first day of Ramadan, the ninth and ‘holiest’ month of the Muslim calendar.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
There is definitely a deadline for returning to fighting in the Gaza Strip, according to President Donald Trump’s Mideast envoy, “but I’m not at liberty to discuss it,” he told White House reporters on Thursday.
Steve Wtikoff’s statements come a day after Trump issued another threat to Hamas about facing “hell to pay” if the terrorist organization does not release the hostages. Witkoff repeated those words on Thursday, saying that “it is time for Hamas to start acting in a responsible and reasonable way.”
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/sy3fofpjkl#autoplay
Hamas is insisting on a complete Israeli withdrawal from the Strip and a permanent ceasefire in conjunction with the release of the hostages.
(The Washington Post)
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
World Bank estimates: Lebanon reconstruction project will cost $11 billion, Kan News reports.
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
March 7, 2025: In 2025 the United States threatened to halt $336 million is aid to the Palestinian Authority/PA if the Palestinians did not halt their Pay for Slay payments. Recent payments were substantial, with some Palestinian terrorists receiving over a million dollars. The most recent payment totaled $142 million for 738 Palestinian terrorists. That averages $193,000 per terrorist.
Last year the PA continued using its Pay For Slay program to reward Palestinian terrorists. Since October 2023, the PA declared nearly 10,000 imprisoned Palestinian and Hamas terrorists as eligible for Pay for Slay money. The PA also recognized an additional 39,000 families of dead terrorists as eligible for Pay for Slay payments. While the PA agreed to the American demands, it is believed that the PA will seek to find a way to make the payments anyway. The Americans have been through this before and this time the PA deceptions may not work.
The PA has long used foreign aid money to run their pay-for-slay program. Since the 1970s the PA has diverted nearly half a billion dollars in foreign aid to pay Palestinian terrorists for killing Israeli civilians and soldiers. There is an elaborate system for paying the families of dead Palestinian terrorists as well as lesser payments for those imprisoned for attacks on Israelis.
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htworld/articles/2025030702912.aspx#gsc.tab=0
***
UNRWA Commissioner-General: Refugee camps in Jenin and Tulkarm evacuated, civilian infrastructure destroyed
***
Hamas: We call on our people in the West Bank, Jerusalem and the occupied interior to escalate the resistance and head to Al-Aqsa and the Ibrahimi Mosque
***
IDF troops in Tulkarem uncovered and destroyed a bomb-making lab and a drone production site used by Palestinian terrorists. The raid, led by the Kfir Brigade’s Shimshon Battalion, seized 100 pipe bombs, makeshift mines, and detonator systems. Several terror-related buildings were also demolished.
***
Israeli forces rescued 10 foreign workers overnight from the West Bank, where they had been held for more than a month. Reports indicate that Palestinians lured the Indian workers with job offers, then confiscated their passports.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Saudi sources say Riyadh is deeply disappointed with the Cairo summit, feeling its position was ignored. While not a full-blown crisis, anger toward Egypt is evident, with MBS skipping the meeting.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE refuse to fund Gaza reconstruction unless Hamxs is disarmed and removed from power. The Saudis welcome U.S.-Hamxs talks, believing Trump can apply the pressure needed to eliminate the terror group.
Saudi and the UAE are supposed to finance the $53 Billion Gaza reconstruction. But MBS insists Hamas cannot remain in power.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
“There is definitely a deadline for returning to fighting in the Gaza Strip. . . “
Words that should chill Hamas’ blood. There has been abundant evidence that Trump and Netanyahu have been working together on this issue, so at this stage it isn’t surprising. What I think will surprise the world will be the intensity of the attack on Hamas. Egypt, Saudi Arabia and other arab countries may have gotten a hint, hence their accelerated efforts to come to some end game for Gaza. Hamas is returning to full jihadi mode and would prefer to die than show any kind of capitulation. They may soon get their chance.
Continued reports of increased Iranian purification of uranium getting more attention. The countdown to an eventual strike against Iran is on.
In Lebanon, though delayed, popular support for Hezbollah is dropping fast. Massively expensive rebuilding of the country is necessary and now reports that Hezbollah fighters are seeking other employment.
Iran –
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA): Iran succeeds in enriching enough material for 6 nuclear bombs.
Iran’s 60%-level enriched uranium stockpile has increased to 275 kilograms, or about one full nuclear weapon’s worth per month since December, International Atomic Energy Agency Director-General Rafael Grossi said Monday.
The IAEA has found that Tehran has enough 60%-enriched uranium – which could be quickly converted to the 90% weaponized level – to make six nuclear weapons if it decided to do so.
OBSERVATION - Initially misleading headline, but approaching the red zone for Israel. There is currently nothing standing in the way of Iran taking the final steps to process the material to the 90% level. Unanswered questions are do they have a device that they can put the uranium into and create a bomb? Israel and the US appear to be on track to strike Iran in the near future to prevent that from happening.
Syria -
A new civil war is evolving in Syria overnight. In the town of Jableh, which lies in Syria’s coastal Latakia province, pro-Assad forces ambushed and killed 16 members of the regime’s security forces. In the ensuing retaliation, 28 pro-Assad militants and four civilians died, according to the London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR). Latakia hold the highest concentration of Alawites — the minority sect of Islam that’s principally found in Syria, with the Assad family themselves being the most prominent members. Alawites comprise about 10% of the country’s population. Notably, the province is also home to the Russian-operated Khmeimim air base.
Fighters from the “Syrian Military Council for the Freedom of Syria” (SMC) have took control of the outskirts of Jableh, Latakia, western Syria; the fighters also seem to have captured a Soviet-made, T-55 Main Battle Tank
The Syrian security forces and army control most of the areas of the Syrian coast. The northern countryside of Latakia / Damsarkho. Ras Al-Shamra. Al-Qanjara. Janata. Saqoubin Sinjwan. Basnada
OBSERVATION - I don’t think the rebellion will be able to last for long. No supply lines and no tactical support available from Russia. May degrade to a low grade guerrilla war.
The fight is desperate as the pro-Syrian govt islamic elements have been essentially conduction a genocide of the Alawites, in revenge for Assad’s rule.
Africa general –
S Africa -
Trump: The U.S. is to halt all federal funding to South Africa and offering South African farmers and their families a fast-track to U.S. citizenship for safety. The process starts immediately.
OBSERVATION - The black govt of S Africa has put into law the complete seizure of any properties owned by whites through out the country - without compensation.
Discussions by whites in the past suggest that such a move has been anticipated and that their response will be to burn everything to the ground, - crops and infrastructure - and bug out of country. They have an organized volunteer defense force organized to facilitate that withdrawal.
With the disaster of Zimbabue as an example, S Africa will face an accelerated dive into sub- 3d world conditions as they have already demonstrated they cannot operate and maintain the infrastructure they’ve already obtained. Now will face the loss of that which has kept them fed and marginally civilized.