Posted on 01/01/2025 6:44:53 AM PST by Godzilla
Welcome to Threat Matrix 2025
For historical reference TM2024 link is
https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4207046/posts?q=1&;page=1#1
Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 24th year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.
2024 has been “historic”: - The landslide election of Trump back into the Whitehouse, and the collapse of the massive lawfare effort against him. - Assassination attempts on Trump - Stunning defeat of Hamas and Hezbollah by Israel - Israel directly hits Iran after Iranian missile strikes, eliminating Iranian missile production capabilities for several years as well as destroying most of its air defense assets. - The almost overnight overthrow of Syria’s Assad and the associated serious losses to Russia and Iran/Hezbollah
I expect 2025 to be even worse as we are facing: - Massive political infighting as the Swamp tries to thwart the Trump agenda - Potential for civil unrest and violence driven by the communist left and Antifa affiliated elements. - Potential violence as Trump implements is deportation plan for millions of illegals. - The potential for a serious and deep recession - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - Combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Russian nuclear threats - China making a move on Taiwan - Israel and Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems.
It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.
For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.
How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.
Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.
My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose – even more so following 2022.
So buckle up for the ride. This is an open thread that I want to continue as a clearing house of tidbits of intelligence contributed by the FR community so that we are all aware of what’s happening and what the impacts of those events will be. Knowledge is power
Thanks for the information on solar flares Godzilla.
Nice. I like the area where you live...sounds like a wonderful community. In Florida anyone using 'Instacart' for grocery shopping can donate directly to various Florida food banks.
Love the place, but has a lot of liberals too. According to data, 14% of the county is on SNAP/EBT, way too high given the shortage of workers for businesses here. Fortunately our ethnic mix plus general culture will minimize potential for wide spread looting should things go sideways, even most of the left here wont put up with that.
CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025
Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WARNING as of Oct 25, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WARNING as of Oct 25, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
SF Bay area - Local Threat - ADVISORY as of Oct 25, 2025.
DATES TO NOTE -
.
ONGOING - EBT and SNAP benefits are gone due to govt shutdown.
MASS BLACKOUT - Nov 26 - Dec 2. Economic boycott.
22 November rally in Washington, D.C by “Removal Coalition”
NOTE - Additional protests being announced for DC, assessing the potential for violence or other direct action.
***
Widespread pessimism about political violence is a rare, grim point of consensus in a country riven by political and cultural divisions.
A majority of Americans, 55 percent, expect political violence to increase, according to a new poll from POLITICO and Public First. That figure underscores just how much the spate of attacks — from the assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk earlier this year to the attempts on President Donald Trump’s life in 2024 — have rattled the nation.
It’s a view held by majorities of Americans all across lines like gender, age, party affiliation and level of education, though Democrats and older voters expressed particular concern.
OBSERVATION - Those under the control of the left have been targeting the sheeple in order to “normalize” political violence and that normalization has spilled out into he conservative wing as well.
***
Yesterday’s Revolutionary Communists protest to “flood” Washington, D.C. was a spectacular flop.
***
Growing evidence that police in Portland and Chicago are collecting evidence in an effort to eventually charge ICE and other federal law enforcement agents with crimes. This is a serious escalation in the conflict between state and federal law enforcement powers.
Terrorism - Threat Level - ADVISORY as of OCT 26, 2025
Downgraded due to declining global threats and middle east war
***
Today @FBIDetroit and partners arrested a third additional suspect in connection to the alleged foiled terrorist attack in Michigan last week. Our investigation suggests this individual had been providing material support in preparation for the attack, inspired by ISIS. They are now in custody.
OBSERVATION - Details of the plot are still lacking, but most assume it was to be a mass casualty event, very possibly associated with Thanksgiving or Christmas celebrations. Would fit the typical MO.
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
With the Bureau of Labor Statistics shuttered for the moment, and with questions about its accuracy and methodology still pending, ADP is about the only national metric we have for the labor market. Today, they reported that the US labor market had its best month since July in their private-sector analysis, but that only amounts to a net increase of 42,000 jobs:
“Private sector employment increased by 42,000 jobs in October and pay was up 4.5 percent year-over-year according to the October ADP National Employment Report® produced by ADP Research in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab (“Stanford Lab”).”
Payroll growth at private companies turned slightly stronger than expected in October, providing some hope that the labor market isn’t in danger of sinking, ADP reported Wednesday.
Companies added 42,000 jobs for the month, following a decline of 29,000 in September and topping the Dow Jones consensus estimate for a gain of 22,000. A revision for September showed 3,000 fewer jobs lost, the payrolls processing firm said. …
All of the job creation came from companies employing at least 250 workers. That category added 76,000 jobs, while smaller businesses lost 34,000. The trend away from job growth at at small businesses is significant, considering they are responsible for three of every four jobs, ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said.
What caused the improvement in October? The likely answer would be action from the Federal Reserve, which finally cut its benchmark rate by a quarter point last month. If so, expect a lot of pressure on Jerome Powell and the board to take more significant action, which at least a couple of the board members wanted last month. The job market clearly wants less expensive credit before investing in job-creating activities, and with inflation still largely under control, it can afford to wait out Powell and the Fed — and probably don’t have much choice anyway. Right now, small businesses can’t afford job-creating activities at all, and only large corporations with husbanded capital had the ability to react to the incremental cut last month.
OBSERVATION - A lot to digest without coffee. Bottom line appears to be that fed must drop its rates to get the economy rolling again or face implosion.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The shutdown is now the longest on record.
***
Of yesterday’s winners, probably the biggest were Democratic Socialist candidates (DSA) - headlined by Zohran Mamdani’s win in NYC. This is a growing radical left faction in today’s democrat party who are anything but democratic. Included in this growing democrat demographic are imported moslems.
RELATED - Leftist congress creators are pushing hard to continue the shutdown believing that it helped them in yesterdays’ elections. It is already assumed that Schumer bowed to their pressure to begin with and now may be sabotaging efforts to find an offramp.
***
Health premiums in the Affordable Care Act Marketplace will rise by double-, even triple-digit percentages, according to some forecasts, while experts say the numbers can be misleading.
People with household income between 100 percent and 400 percent of the federal poverty level receive a subsidy from the federal government to help buy health coverage through the Marketplace.
The federal poverty level is based on household size and is adjusted annually.
People who earn less than 100 percent of the federal poverty level qualify for Medicaid, which has no premium. People earning less than 138 percent may qualify in the 40 states with expanded Medicaid.
The Marketplace subsidy is paid directly to the insurer, so enrollees who qualify pay only the reduced premium.
Five levels of plans are available: bronze, silver, gold, platinum, and catastrophic. The bronze plans have the lowest premium but typically have higher out-of-pocket expenses, and the platinum plans have the best coverage and the highest premium.
OBSERVATION - 0bamacare purposefully created this toxic mix of higher prices and complex accounting for one sole purpose - to crash the health care industry via insurance and force a govt administered universal health care on the nation (minus the elite, of course). Democrats set up this current time bomb on purpose, should the plan fail to push the country into universal health beforehand.
Republicans have repeatedly sought to restore sanity to the health care insurance industry, but by an large failed to have the backbone to carry it out. Thus supported subsidies as a way to paper over the problem. That time is running out.
This is one component that is at stake with the current govt shutdown
***
Heritage Foundation President Kevin Roberts came under scathing attack from his own staff and fellows who were convened for a special internal meeting Wednesday — with several castigating his leadership and calling for his resignation.
. . . one Heritage member said the organization was “bleeding” under Roberts’ leadership.
“So it’s been six days . . . where we as an organization have been unable to utter the words . . . if you want to cut through it, [that] Tucker [Carlson] is an antisemite — as we as Heritage do not want to associate with him. And we still do not have a statement about that.”
Fallout from Roberts’ actions since last week appears to be severe and growing.
OBSERVATION - Carleson has become that who he once assailed. He is dead to me now. What is of greater concern is that conservative voices like Heritage have condoned his anti semitic and anti christian diatribes.
In this case Heritage’s Roberts is either incredibly tone deaf to the damage he has caused, or complicit in efforts to split the conservative base. His mea culpa consists of blaming his chief of staff and his failure to ‘proof read’. Come on, really? A person in that level of PR activity too weak to read what he was going to say first?
It was bad enough that Roberts continued to endorse Carlson, but then doubled down by calling those who spoke out as a ‘venomous coalition.’ “
This is a fire conservatives in Heritage need to stamp out and fast. First step is that Roberts has to go. Second step is that Carleson has to be repudiated and backburnered.
***
(FO) Democrat-controlled cities and non-government organizations (NGO) urged Federal District Judge John McConnell to compel the Trump administration to fully fund the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) ahead of a Thursday hearing. President Donald Trump said the administration will only fully fund SNAP if Senate Democrats vote to reopen the federal government.
OBSERVATION - Should the judge be foolish enough to make such a ruling, this would easily lead to Trump saying no and give him a massive amount of ammo to bring to the USSC to stop this nonsense.
***
The lawsuits against the tariffs Trump has levied was heard before the USSC yesterday. MSM unanimously suggests that the court is leaning against Trump. Key argument seems to focus around whether or not this amounts to a tax on Americans or not.
China -
The latest personnel changes in the Chinese military show that Xi Jinping is seeking to tighten control by bringing its political apparatus under the authority of its disciplinary arm. The appointments also demonstrate his ongoing efforts to purge factionalism from the military.
The sweeping changes suggest that the Chinese military still struggles with corruption and instability, to the detriment of its combat readiness.
The specific evidence of Xi’s intention to tighten control of the military’s political organization are his expulsion of its chief and his promotion of a discipline inspection official to the position of vice chair of the Central Military Commission (CMC), the body that has overall control of the armed forces. The discipline inspection commission of a Chinese government organization enforces party rules and internal party discipline. This notably extends to catching corrupt officials.
Last month, nine active-duty generals were accused of serious violations and expelled from the party and the military, including CMC vice chairman He Weidong, director of the Political Work Department Miao Hua and commander of the paramiliary People’s Armed Police Wang Chunning.
Despite multiple purges and institutional reforms, recurring instability in the personnel system raises questions about the real combat readiness and cohesion of China’s armed forces.
OBSERVATION - Better details at the link. It would be challenging for China to launch a major military operation, either a full on blockade of Taiwan or even action against the Philippines in the disputed regions, if his military leadership is corrupted - and that corruption trickles downward, corroding overall combat readiness. Remember, China hasn’t mustered a modern fighting force since the Korean war, and in that instance was mostly human wave efforts. Modern warfare with high tech systems just haven’t been put to real testing yet.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 30-40 degree range, mostly cloudy with widely scattered showers
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine’s air defenses intercepted or suppressed 108 out of 135 Russian drones overnight, including around 90 Shaheds. Still, 27 drones hit targets across 13 locations.
Ukrainian drone/missile strike hit the Sterlitamak Petrochemical Plant in Bashkortostan again, early this morning.
On the evening of Nov 5, Ukraine struck a major Geran-2 (Shahed) drone base at Donetsk airport with cruise missiles and drones. An ammo depot, fuel storage, and pre-launch prep site were destroyed. Power and comms nodes damaged. Up to 1,000 drones and 1,500 warheads were reportedly on site.
Ukraine’s General Staff confirms a strike on the LUKOIL refinery in Volgograd along with three fuel depots in occupied Crimea.
Russian losses per 06/11/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1170 men
+6 ACVs
+15 artillery systems
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Not much forward on the fight - probably surpassed by OPSEC from both sides. No doubt still intense and not settled in any manner.
Analysis and Future Operations —
Brilliant stroke by Ukraine overnight, finding and hitting a Geran-2 (Shahed) drone base at Donetsk airport. From videos posted to social media, it blew up real good. From a tactical view, it wasn’t the smartest move by Russia to place such a facility so far forward.
The relative silence on Pokrovsk from my sources is good and bad. If bad, Russia would be pushing the news. If good for Ukraine, I’d expect continued silence because of continued OPSEC knowing they are not out of the woods yet in this fight. Information I do see indicates that the fighting is most intense on the southern approaches to Pokrovsk while it appears that Ukrainian counter attacks on the northern pincer have lessened action there.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Israel continues to reduce Hamas forces within its “Yellow Zone”
- Pressure building towards larger action against Hezbollah.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
IDF standing down some of the Reserve units called up for the fight in Gaza.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Israeli media: The army launched air and ground strikes this morning on several targets in the Khan Younis area, southern Gaza Strip.
***
Israeli forces have carried out a series of air raids and demolitions east of Gaza City amid the ongoing ceasefire violations by Hamas.
***
Israel has issued new restrictions along the Gaza border with Egypt due to the increase in drones attempting to bring arms and munitions to Hamas elements.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Things have reached a kind of dynamic stability with Gaza. Hamas is not going to get its forces within the “Yellow Zone” released even with some international pressure from Egypt and Qatar.
Hamas continues to dodge the disarmament clause with help from Egypt et al who suggest that the peace plan doesn’t really address that point. It is in Egypt’s and many other arab counties interest to maintain an armed, anti-Israeli element in Gaza to keep Israel’s attention there and not the rest of the region. The results from the post Oct 7 wars indicate that Israel is capable of dealing with multiple fronts at the same time.
Fighting in Lebanon may break out by the end of the month. Right now the Lebanese govt and Hezbollah are only engaged in a war of words. Israel will once again show them real war. See Lebanon below for more observations.
(BTW, I’m considering reopening a Lebanon/Hezbollah section back under Israel should serious fighting breakout to keep common news together and not spread out. )
Lebanon - Threat Level - ADVISORY November 5, 2025
Threat level set separate due to growing threat from Hezbollah ruining the current ceasefire
Hezbollah has issued an open letter to Lebanon’s President, Parliament Speaker, and Prime Minister, opposing talks with Israel: “The negotiations do not serve a national interest and pose existential risks that threaten the Lebanese entity and its sovereignty.”
Sami Jamil of Lebanon’s Christian Al Kataeb party reacts to Hezbollah’s letter:
“Hezbollah insists on dragging us into a new destructive war. It is unacceptable for a minority held hostage to dictate the fate of the free majority.”.
***
Unconfirmed reports In recent hours, the United States has informed Western and Arab countries that “Israel has decided to escalate its operations in Lebanon to put pressure on Hezbollah.”
***
One person killed in an Israeli airstrike on a car in the town of Burj Rahal, southern Lebanon
***
Lebanese media reports Israeli airstrikes in the Tyre area. Israel claims it was a facility being rebuilt by Hezbollah.
OBSERVATIONS - As noted yesterday, it seems that Lebanon is being given until the end of the month to get its act together against Hezbollah. The US warning, noted above, suggests that any Israeli action would have the support of the US.
Some feedback from Israeli sources suggest that an Israeli campaign would be about a couple weeks long and very intense, with a lot of airstrikes and some expansion of ground being held in S Lebanon. Such action likely would cause Hezbollah to come out of hiding and counter attack, creating a larger target list for IAF.
Syria -
The U.S. plans a military presence at a Damascus airbase to support a Syria-Israel security agreement, Reuters reports.
OBSERVATION - US already has bases in the eastern regions of Syria as part of the fight against ISIS. A facility at the Damascus airport could result in complications should terror element use the site to store weapons and munitions like Hezbollah did, thinking they would be safe from Israeli attack.
Mexico -
Mexican President Sheinbaum again refused the U.S.’ offer for military intervention against the cartels in Mexico. Sheinbaum further called militarization a failed project “as happened with the war on drugs.”
Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025
Russia’s Deputy Chairman of their legislative defense committee said Russia is already sending weapons to Venezuela and sees no legal barrier to sending the Oreshnik intermediate range ballistic missiles.
OBSERVATION - This could generate a replay of the Cuban missile crisis. It would certainly result in US strikes on Venezuela to take out these systems as soon as they are unloaded and possibly use force or threat thereof to intercept Russian attempts to deliver via either air or sea.
Thanks Godzilla.
CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025
Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WARNING as of Oct 25, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WARNING as of Oct 25, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
SF Bay area - Local Threat - ADVISORY as of Oct 25, 2025.
DATES TO NOTE -
.
ONGOING - EBT and SNAP benefits are gone due to govt shutdown.
22 November rally in Washington, D.C by “Removal Coalition”
MASS BLACKOUT - Nov 26 - Dec 2. Economic boycott.
***
Weekend forecast for trouble hasn’t changed much. Mostly just signs and shouts. Even the Revolutionary Communist Party, USA’s that started on November 5 was weak with only about 1000 turning out.
So far, no major social events that could trigger much more violent actions. Even the SNAP/EBT threats have muted over the course of the week. There is little to suggest cards will be started to be filled any time soon, so this could change the social attitude and stimulate greater looting.
***
Mamdani’s win in NYC has opened up a significant new front in the growing CW2 matrix - moslem takeover of the nation’s largest city. Calls by moslems to flock to NYC echo similar ones that impacted London following the election of a marxist moslem there over a decade ago. Same has been observed for Dearborn MI. With a favorable moslem leader, radical moslems will aggressively enter the town and start forcing islamic practices via multiple paths- by sheer numbers, legal means and violence/threats. Mamdani is a radical’s radial in this measure.
As Ive noted many times before, the CW2 matrix becomes very complex from here on out. Jihad will pair with marxism for as long as it is beneficial to them, then kill it like other opponents. So in a country where the major divisions are red - blue, this moslem component in the blue areas will eventually generate a power struggle, resulting in ‘green’ zones that initially will be aligned blue, then expand to take over blue.
***
Federal officers have been met with a range of resistance from protesters, most notably in blue sanctuary cities like Portland and Chicago. Now, however, the Department of Homeland Security has announced the implementation of new rules that should give officers an advantage as they continue to do their already dangerous jobs.
Early this week, the Department of Homeland Security updated its list of prohibited and restricted conduct on federal property, and those wearing face-coverings should take note
“Wearing a mask, hood, disguise, or device that conceals the identity of the wearer when attempting to avoid detection or identification while violating any federal, state, or local law, ordinance, or regulation” is forbidden, the rules say.
Those rules will be enforced “on federal property or in areas outside federal property, that affects, threatens, or endangers federal property or persons on the federal property,” the rules state
OBSERVATION - This rule change will likely be challenged by the left as some sort of violation of the first amendment. Interestingly, Portland seems to have released a similar restriction on protestors.
***
Revolutionary Communist Party, USA’s 05 November protest event began at the National Mall in Washington, D.C. yesterday. Organizers with RevCom’s Refuse Fascism organization said 1,000 people attended the National Mall protest. The demonstration is expected to resume at George Washington University today, and move to the Supreme Court.
Terrorism - Threat Level - ADVISORY as of OCT 26, 2025
Downgraded due to declining global threats and middle east war
***
A sixth suspect has been charged in connection with an investigation into an ISIS-inspired terrorist attack in Michigan over Halloween weekend.
FBI Director Kash Patel confirmed a sixth suspect on Thursday, who was arrested in Kent, Washington. Acting U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey, Alina Habba, identified the suspect as 19-year-old Saed Ali Mirreh.
https://www.oann.com/newsroom/sixth-suspect-charged-in-connection-with-alleged-michigan-terror-plot/
UPDATE - 8 teens and young adults across Michigan, New Jersey, and Washington have been arrested so far in connection with a thwarted ISIS-linked Halloween terror plot.
***
A suspicious package was delivered to the Joint Base Andrews military base in Maryland on Thursday which caused multiple people to fall ill & be taken to the hospital.
The suspicious package included ‘unknown white powder’ and ‘political propaganda.’
(CNN)
OBSERVATION - This is serious since people fell ill and had to be hospitalized.
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
Household debt continues to rise as Americans keep spending. Increases in the cost of living have outpaced salary growth, while elevated interest rates have added to the strain.
Total U.S. household debt reached a record $18.59 trillion in Q3 2025, an increase of $197 billion from the previous quarter. Household debt is distributed across several categories, with mortgages making up the largest share.
Mortgage balances rose by $137 billion to $13.07 trillion, while credit card balances climbed by $24 billion to $1.23 trillion, an all-time high, nearly 6% higher than a year earlier.
Student loan debt also reached a record $1.65 trillion, while auto loan balances remained steady at $1.66 trillion.
By category, total household debt includes $13.07 trillion in mortgages, $1.66 trillion in auto loans, $1.65 trillion in student loans, $1.23 trillion in credit card debt, $0.55 trillion in other debt, and $0.42 trillion in home equity lines of credit (HELOCs).
While the debt itself is problematic, a more worrying economic indicator is the rise in delinquencies.
About 4.3% of total debt is now more than 30 days past due, the highest level since early 2020 but still well below the 11% recorded during the 2009 financial crisis.
OBSERVATION - These are obviously not good numbers and will burden any future growth of the economy.
***
Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said the Trump administration is preparing to cut U.S. flight capacity at the 40 largest U.S. airports by 10% to alleviate pressure on air traffic controllers. Duffy said the cuts will take effect on Friday, 07 November. Duffy added the administration could impose more flight capacity cuts if staffing shortages worsen.
OBSERVATION - Concerns are now rising over potential impacts to Thanksgiving travel should the shutdown last that long. Even the limited reductions will have substantial impacts across the whole system
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Unconfirmed reports that the USS Ford is holding position west of Gibraltar, due in part to administration reconsideration of using military strikes directly against Venezuela.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The shutdown is now the longest on record.
It looks like the radical marxist wing of senate democrats are continuing to sway the party in continuing the shutdown over perceived gains suggested by Tuesday’s voting results. Majority Leader Thune was reportedly opening up to some negotiation this week, but democrats apparently have shut that down.
Independent Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, told reporters Wednesday it would be “devastating” to the party if Democrats caved on the heels of the election and reopened the government for a “meaningless” subsidy extension vote.
“I think all over this country people are saying, ‘Please Democrats, you haven’t been strong in the past. Stand tall now, protect us,’” Sanders told reporters Wednesday. “The Democrats now are winning because they’re standing with working people. So, to answer your question, if they cave now and go forward with a meaningless vote, I think it will be a horrible policy decision, and I think politically, it will be devastating to Democrats.”
Another aspect of the shut down is that democrats perceive that the courts are successfully fighting for them, given the recent SNAP funding rulings. Those rulings will be overturned at appeal and higher, but it does give them something to cling to in the interim.
***
(Reuters) - A federal judge ordered U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration to fully fund this month’s food aid for 42 million low-income Americans by Friday, blocking its plan to only provide reduced benefits during the government shutdown.
U.S. District Judge John McConnell in Providence, Rhode Island accused the administration of withholding Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits, known as SNAP or food stamps, for “political reasons” as he ordered the U.S. Department of Agriculture to fund the program so people get 100% of their benefits.
The Trump administration quickly moved to appeal McConnell’s decision, leaving it unclear whether ultimately SNAP benefits would be paid out in full on Friday as the judge had ordered.
A USDA spokesperson in a statement said Senate Democrats were the ones to blame for compromising SNAP by voting 14 times against a Republican-backed stopgap funding measure that would end the government shutdown, which is now in its 37th day.
OBSERVATION - Activist judge completely out of line with this order. The hard fact is that SNAP will not be reloaded today. SNAP funding is dependent on congressional appropriation - which there are none currently. Hugely unconstitutional ruling, and one where the administration can legitimately strike hard on appeal. If a judge can make this order hold, then other activities judges can order other components of the shut down full funded as well, again, in gross violation of the law and constitution.
***
Fallout from Mamdani’s win in NYC is beginning to develop with reports of businesses preparing to move their operations out of town as well as dramatically increased inquires to moving firms and real estate people in nearby states. Much of this developing migration is being lead by the rich - the very ones Mamdani is counting on taxing into poverty.
Keep in mind only 14% of the city’s population voted Tuesday to create this tyranny of the minority.
Reports also suggest vast numbers of city employees looking to leave as well, in particular bus and other metro drivers should the ‘free’ fares go into effect. Small businesses concerned new taxation and other laws will put them out of business.
How big the bleed out of NYC will be is yet to be determined. Much of Mamdani’s agenda is questionable and overreach of his authority, which may dampen things a bit, but the pressure will be on once he takes office.
Illegal Immigration –
The number of detainees in ICE custody increased to 66,000 this week, setting a new record high as U.S. President Donald Trump intensifies his crackdown on illegal immigration, according to internal Department of Homeland Security data. - CBS
***
(FO) New York City Mayor-Elect Zohran Mamdani is planning to allocate $165 million to illegal aliens’ legal defenses when Mamdani takes office in January 2026. Mamdani’s plan would significantly increase funding to New York’s Rapid Response Legal Collaborative, a joint city and state program which provides legal services for illegal aliens. Mamdani said he also plans to end any New York City government collaboration or cooperation with ICE.
***
Federal agents have just rounded up 1,500 ILLEGAL ALIENS in Houston — including over a dozen sexual predators and 17 gang members.
China -
China’s October’s export figures have revealed a sharp and unexpected contraction, marking the first decline since February and underscoring the devastating impact of renewed U.S.-China trade tensions under President Donald Trump.
As tariffs bite deeper and front-loaded shipments to America dry up, Beijing’s manufacturing machine is sputtering, raising alarms about a potential cascade of economic fallout that could ripple across the world.
Shipments to the United States, China’s largest single export destination, cratered by a staggering 25.17%, highlighting America’s outsized role in propping up Chinese trade—accounting for over $400 billion annually. Without the U.S., exports to the rest of the world managed a modest 3.1% increase, but this proved insufficient to stem the overall decline.
OBSERVATION - This is huge. China’s economy has already been staggering for the past couple of years following the close out of wuhan related stoppages and the damages those shutdowns caused. This makes China’s military buildup more difficult and costly overall. While the tariff war may hurt us here, it will hit China even harder.
***
China has officially put its newest and most advanced aircraft carrier, the Fujian, into service. The conventionally powered Type 003 carrier Fujian, is a true flattop sporting electromagnetic catapults and other advanced technologies previously existent only on western aircraft carriers. It is however is not as big as the Ford class.
OBSERVATION - Edge US has is that all carriers are nuclear powered. Secondly, China is still very new at carrier operations. The Fujian has seen sea deployments over the past months, even participating in some exercises simulating a blockade of Taiwan. But sustaining combat operations and the stresses involved are unproven. Good at regional force projection but poor in projection of power beyond that.
China and other nations have touted the vulnerability of US carriers. China has yet to fully develop protection and actions for its carriers.
North/South Korea –
North Korea has launched a ballistic missile in the direction of the Sea of Japan, according to the Japanese Defense Ministry.
OBSERVATION - First in many months and is among other recent tests.
Phillipines –
(FO) The Philippines began a drill on Monday for defending the northern islands from invasion by the Chinese. The drill involves thousands of troops, coast guardsmen, and police as a whole-of-nation defense.
OBSERVATION - I still see the first bullets fired against the Philippines and not Taiwan.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
NUCLEAR THREATS –
The Russian President has instructed senior officials in his government to examine the state of preparedness of its nuclear weapons establishment to perform a live test — which could be the first in over 30 years, given the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty — if it were deemed necessary. The conversation took place during a meeting of Putin’s Security Council which, a Russian newspaper claims, was supposed to be on road safety but which got diverted into nuclear weapons instead.
Russian broadsheet Ведомости (‘The Record’) reports that during the meeting, Russia’s Putin stated that he would not resume nuclear tests unilaterally and would only do so in response to an American live nuclear test. He is reported to have said: “In my 2023 address to the Federal Assembly, I stated that if the United States or other countries conduct such tests, Russia will be required to take appropriate retaliatory measures”.
OBSERVATION - I think Trump’s remarks were unexpected and caught the Kremlin off guard. putin has been used to threatening nuclear escalation so far and now the reverse card has been played on him.
Economic Impact –
Alcohol prices in Russia are set to rise sharply from January 1, 2026, as the government approves higher excise taxes across the board. Vodka will go up 11.4%, beer by 10%, and wine by as much as 30%. Some shelves may empty by December as producers rush output. Analysts expect a 10% drop in sales.
OBSERVATION - Russia needs more money, so they are starting to expand taxes and increases.
***
Russia’s top tank maker Uralvagonzavod is slashing around 10% of its workforce and freezing all new hires by February. Insider reports suggest some divisions could lose up to 50% of staff, pointing to a steep drop in military orders or state funding (most likely)
OBSERVATION - This is a very significant action if found true. Losing production of military equipment in the middle of a significant war is generally unheard of. Especially as Russia is rumored to be trying to rebuild armor corps as the war continues. Something serious is happening, and it doesn’t appear to be playing out well for Russia. Increases the focus on 2026 being a threshold year for the war.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 30-40 degree range, mostly cloudy with widely scattered showers
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight, Russia launched 128 attack drones of various types, including around 80 Shaheds, from multiple directions including Kursk, Orel, and occupied Crimea. As of 9:00 AM, Ukrainian air defense shot down or jammed 94 of them. Strikes were recorded at 11 locations.
Ukrainian SOF drones struck multiple fuel depots in occupied Crimea. A fully loaded RVS-400 tank at the Hvardiiske oil facility was destroyed, along with two fuel trains at a nearby loading rack. Additional hits were reported on fuel storage sites in Simferopol and the village of Bityumne, triggering widespread fires.
Confirmed by Reuters: The Volgograd oil refinery has halted operations after overnight Ukrainian drone strikes. The AVT-5 unit (3.3M tons/year) caught fire, and the hydrocracker was damaged, cutting the refinery’s capacity by around 20%. This marks the sixth confirmed hit on the facility, the last one on August 14.
Russian losses per 07/11/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1170 men
+1 tank
+2 ACVs
+13 artillery
+1 AD system
Analysis and Future Operations —
Only propaganda outlets speaking on the action at Pokrovsk, much is still under a cloud. This makes reports very questionable at the moment. It appears that Russia has been unable to seal the deal in the face of Ukraine active defensive measures. The outcome is still hanging with intense fighting indicated.
Looking at Russian drone/missile attacks, the pattern is pointing to a likely large attack some time in the next couple days.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Heavy air strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon
- Continued ops in Gaza
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Continued ops with overnight air strikes near the “Yellow Line”, suggesting IDF located Hamas elements potentially preparing to attack Israeli forces.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The political bureau of the Houthis in Yemen responded to the Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon by saying that the Lebanese government’s weakness and failure to respond to Israel’s repeated attacks have allowed Israel to deepen its violation of Lebanon’s sovereignty and abandon its commitments.
The statement says the Houthis reaffirm Yemen’s support for Lebanon, its people, its army, and Hezbollah, and back their right to curb “Israeli aggression.” It adds that resisting Israeli attacks is a legitimate right on religious, moral, and humanitarian grounds.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
See discussion on Lebanon below regarding the overnight airstrikes. Suffice it to say Israel is ramping up for more substantial attacks in the near future.
Israel continues to reduce Hamas presence within the “Yellow Zone” as well as hitting targets in Hamas controlled area. Actions in the yellow zone continue to methodical, focusing on the identification and elimination of underground defenses and tunnels.
Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025
Iranian President Pezeshkian says Tehran may soon have to be evacuated due to a deteriorating water crisis, says water rationing will start soon
Not a single millimeter of rain has dropped in Tehran province since September, and Tehran’s dams water reserves are down to 5%.
OBSERVATION - Evacuate to where? Nearly all of Iran is suffering from a severe drought.
Lebanon - Threat Level - ADVISORY November 5, 2025
Threat level set separate due to growing threat from Hezbollah ruining the current ceasefire
Israel issued evacuation notices for 5 areas overnight before carrying out an intensified wave of strikes in and around the coastal city of Tyre, hitting targets located deep within civilian areas. Hezbollah is known to place its weapons among homes in southern Lebanese villages, using residents as human shields. The IDF issued more than five evacuation notices to Lebanese civilians in the region during the same day.
https://www.ynetnews.com/opinions-analysis/article/skpkp11i111e#autoplay
Lebanese civilians, including members of the Lebanese army, evacuated areas designated by the IDF ahead of incoming strikes.
Powerful secondary explosions seen after an IDF strikes confirming the presence of hidden weapons caches.
***
Under Maj. Gen. Rafi Milo, the IDF says it will keep up the offensive in southern Lebanon to prevent Hezbollah from rearming and to protect northern communities. He told mayors and local leaders on the border:
“We understand that we must be determined and continue to attack, strike and destroy in order to keep Hezbollah weakened,” says Milo to mayors and leaders of local councils on the northern border.
“We will not allow Hezbollah to establish itself and reorganize on our borders, we will not let it recover. We will continue to attack and operate in the security area and on the front, as a buffer before the residents, and above all we will continue to monitor every threat we see and act against it,” he tells the officials.
Milo adds that the IDF “will continue to operate intensively and in an offensive and persistent manner as we have operated over the last year, and as we acted today, for the continued maintenance of civilian routine in the communities and the growth of the north.”
OVERALL OBSERVATIONS - These overnight strikes have been the largest in many weeks. This is in line with growing warnings of increased Israeli action against Hezbollah in the absence of Lebanese moving against them. Looks like unless things change, things will seriously break out next month. Hezbollah is still believed to have some missiles and rockets available that may come out of hiding if that happens. That is why Israel is hitting those likely storage locations. Sizable secondary explosions from videos posted on social media are evidence that pretty substantial stores of explosives were hit - likely rockets.
So far, silence from the Trump administration gives the appearance that the administration is condoning these strikes - part of warnings they gave Lebanon earlier in the week.
Syria -
Syria denied a Reuters report on Thursday, November 6, that the United States was preparing to establish a military presence at an airbase in the Syrian capital, Damascus, to help facilitate a security agreement that Washington is working to broker between Syria and Israel.
***
The UN Security Council has lifted sanctions on Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa. The EU is expected to lift similar in the next few days.
Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025
Reports suggest Venezuelan President Maduro may step down if the U.S. offers amnesty, removes his $50M bounty, and ensures exile. Talks revive amid U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean
OBSERVATION - These reports of Maduro wetting himself continue to surprise and perplex me. It is apparent that the US threat of boots on the ground only really extend to small elements hitting narco-terror operations. Efforts to militarily overthrow the country would require a substantially larger force than is out in the Caribbean region. Maduro sees the threat being much larger.
Now this follows rumors that Trump is reconsidering ground operations in Venezuela.
Thanks Godzilla.
Democrats will find continuous reasons to keep the shutdown going until they get what they want.
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