Posted on 01/01/2025 6:44:53 AM PST by Godzilla
Welcome to Threat Matrix 2025
For historical reference TM2024 link is
https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4207046/posts?q=1&;page=1#1
Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 24th year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.
2024 has been “historic”: - The landslide election of Trump back into the Whitehouse, and the collapse of the massive lawfare effort against him. - Assassination attempts on Trump - Stunning defeat of Hamas and Hezbollah by Israel - Israel directly hits Iran after Iranian missile strikes, eliminating Iranian missile production capabilities for several years as well as destroying most of its air defense assets. - The almost overnight overthrow of Syria’s Assad and the associated serious losses to Russia and Iran/Hezbollah
I expect 2025 to be even worse as we are facing: - Massive political infighting as the Swamp tries to thwart the Trump agenda - Potential for civil unrest and violence driven by the communist left and Antifa affiliated elements. - Potential violence as Trump implements is deportation plan for millions of illegals. - The potential for a serious and deep recession - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - Combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Russian nuclear threats - China making a move on Taiwan - Israel and Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems.
It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.
For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.
How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.
Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.
My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose – even more so following 2022.
So buckle up for the ride. This is an open thread that I want to continue as a clearing house of tidbits of intelligence contributed by the FR community so that we are all aware of what’s happening and what the impacts of those events will be. Knowledge is power
Thanks for the information on solar flares Godzilla.
Nice. I like the area where you live...sounds like a wonderful community. In Florida anyone using 'Instacart' for grocery shopping can donate directly to various Florida food banks.
Love the place, but has a lot of liberals too. According to data, 14% of the county is on SNAP/EBT, way too high given the shortage of workers for businesses here. Fortunately our ethnic mix plus general culture will minimize potential for wide spread looting should things go sideways, even most of the left here wont put up with that.
CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025
Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WARNING as of Oct 25, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WARNING as of Oct 25, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
SF Bay area - Local Threat - ADVISORY as of Oct 25, 2025.
DATES TO NOTE -
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ONGOING - EBT and SNAP benefits are gone due to govt shutdown.
MASS BLACKOUT - Nov 26 - Dec 2. Economic boycott.
22 November rally in Washington, D.C by “Removal Coalition”
NOTE - Additional protests being announced for DC, assessing the potential for violence or other direct action.
***
Widespread pessimism about political violence is a rare, grim point of consensus in a country riven by political and cultural divisions.
A majority of Americans, 55 percent, expect political violence to increase, according to a new poll from POLITICO and Public First. That figure underscores just how much the spate of attacks — from the assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk earlier this year to the attempts on President Donald Trump’s life in 2024 — have rattled the nation.
It’s a view held by majorities of Americans all across lines like gender, age, party affiliation and level of education, though Democrats and older voters expressed particular concern.
OBSERVATION - Those under the control of the left have been targeting the sheeple in order to “normalize” political violence and that normalization has spilled out into he conservative wing as well.
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Yesterday’s Revolutionary Communists protest to “flood” Washington, D.C. was a spectacular flop.
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Growing evidence that police in Portland and Chicago are collecting evidence in an effort to eventually charge ICE and other federal law enforcement agents with crimes. This is a serious escalation in the conflict between state and federal law enforcement powers.
Terrorism - Threat Level - ADVISORY as of OCT 26, 2025
Downgraded due to declining global threats and middle east war
***
Today @FBIDetroit and partners arrested a third additional suspect in connection to the alleged foiled terrorist attack in Michigan last week. Our investigation suggests this individual had been providing material support in preparation for the attack, inspired by ISIS. They are now in custody.
OBSERVATION - Details of the plot are still lacking, but most assume it was to be a mass casualty event, very possibly associated with Thanksgiving or Christmas celebrations. Would fit the typical MO.
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
With the Bureau of Labor Statistics shuttered for the moment, and with questions about its accuracy and methodology still pending, ADP is about the only national metric we have for the labor market. Today, they reported that the US labor market had its best month since July in their private-sector analysis, but that only amounts to a net increase of 42,000 jobs:
“Private sector employment increased by 42,000 jobs in October and pay was up 4.5 percent year-over-year according to the October ADP National Employment Report® produced by ADP Research in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab (“Stanford Lab”).”
Payroll growth at private companies turned slightly stronger than expected in October, providing some hope that the labor market isn’t in danger of sinking, ADP reported Wednesday.
Companies added 42,000 jobs for the month, following a decline of 29,000 in September and topping the Dow Jones consensus estimate for a gain of 22,000. A revision for September showed 3,000 fewer jobs lost, the payrolls processing firm said. …
All of the job creation came from companies employing at least 250 workers. That category added 76,000 jobs, while smaller businesses lost 34,000. The trend away from job growth at at small businesses is significant, considering they are responsible for three of every four jobs, ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said.
What caused the improvement in October? The likely answer would be action from the Federal Reserve, which finally cut its benchmark rate by a quarter point last month. If so, expect a lot of pressure on Jerome Powell and the board to take more significant action, which at least a couple of the board members wanted last month. The job market clearly wants less expensive credit before investing in job-creating activities, and with inflation still largely under control, it can afford to wait out Powell and the Fed — and probably don’t have much choice anyway. Right now, small businesses can’t afford job-creating activities at all, and only large corporations with husbanded capital had the ability to react to the incremental cut last month.
OBSERVATION - A lot to digest without coffee. Bottom line appears to be that fed must drop its rates to get the economy rolling again or face implosion.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The shutdown is now the longest on record.
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Of yesterday’s winners, probably the biggest were Democratic Socialist candidates (DSA) - headlined by Zohran Mamdani’s win in NYC. This is a growing radical left faction in today’s democrat party who are anything but democratic. Included in this growing democrat demographic are imported moslems.
RELATED - Leftist congress creators are pushing hard to continue the shutdown believing that it helped them in yesterdays’ elections. It is already assumed that Schumer bowed to their pressure to begin with and now may be sabotaging efforts to find an offramp.
***
Health premiums in the Affordable Care Act Marketplace will rise by double-, even triple-digit percentages, according to some forecasts, while experts say the numbers can be misleading.
People with household income between 100 percent and 400 percent of the federal poverty level receive a subsidy from the federal government to help buy health coverage through the Marketplace.
The federal poverty level is based on household size and is adjusted annually.
People who earn less than 100 percent of the federal poverty level qualify for Medicaid, which has no premium. People earning less than 138 percent may qualify in the 40 states with expanded Medicaid.
The Marketplace subsidy is paid directly to the insurer, so enrollees who qualify pay only the reduced premium.
Five levels of plans are available: bronze, silver, gold, platinum, and catastrophic. The bronze plans have the lowest premium but typically have higher out-of-pocket expenses, and the platinum plans have the best coverage and the highest premium.
OBSERVATION - 0bamacare purposefully created this toxic mix of higher prices and complex accounting for one sole purpose - to crash the health care industry via insurance and force a govt administered universal health care on the nation (minus the elite, of course). Democrats set up this current time bomb on purpose, should the plan fail to push the country into universal health beforehand.
Republicans have repeatedly sought to restore sanity to the health care insurance industry, but by an large failed to have the backbone to carry it out. Thus supported subsidies as a way to paper over the problem. That time is running out.
This is one component that is at stake with the current govt shutdown
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Heritage Foundation President Kevin Roberts came under scathing attack from his own staff and fellows who were convened for a special internal meeting Wednesday — with several castigating his leadership and calling for his resignation.
. . . one Heritage member said the organization was “bleeding” under Roberts’ leadership.
“So it’s been six days . . . where we as an organization have been unable to utter the words . . . if you want to cut through it, [that] Tucker [Carlson] is an antisemite — as we as Heritage do not want to associate with him. And we still do not have a statement about that.”
Fallout from Roberts’ actions since last week appears to be severe and growing.
OBSERVATION - Carleson has become that who he once assailed. He is dead to me now. What is of greater concern is that conservative voices like Heritage have condoned his anti semitic and anti christian diatribes.
In this case Heritage’s Roberts is either incredibly tone deaf to the damage he has caused, or complicit in efforts to split the conservative base. His mea culpa consists of blaming his chief of staff and his failure to ‘proof read’. Come on, really? A person in that level of PR activity too weak to read what he was going to say first?
It was bad enough that Roberts continued to endorse Carlson, but then doubled down by calling those who spoke out as a ‘venomous coalition.’ “
This is a fire conservatives in Heritage need to stamp out and fast. First step is that Roberts has to go. Second step is that Carleson has to be repudiated and backburnered.
***
(FO) Democrat-controlled cities and non-government organizations (NGO) urged Federal District Judge John McConnell to compel the Trump administration to fully fund the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) ahead of a Thursday hearing. President Donald Trump said the administration will only fully fund SNAP if Senate Democrats vote to reopen the federal government.
OBSERVATION - Should the judge be foolish enough to make such a ruling, this would easily lead to Trump saying no and give him a massive amount of ammo to bring to the USSC to stop this nonsense.
***
The lawsuits against the tariffs Trump has levied was heard before the USSC yesterday. MSM unanimously suggests that the court is leaning against Trump. Key argument seems to focus around whether or not this amounts to a tax on Americans or not.
China -
The latest personnel changes in the Chinese military show that Xi Jinping is seeking to tighten control by bringing its political apparatus under the authority of its disciplinary arm. The appointments also demonstrate his ongoing efforts to purge factionalism from the military.
The sweeping changes suggest that the Chinese military still struggles with corruption and instability, to the detriment of its combat readiness.
The specific evidence of Xi’s intention to tighten control of the military’s political organization are his expulsion of its chief and his promotion of a discipline inspection official to the position of vice chair of the Central Military Commission (CMC), the body that has overall control of the armed forces. The discipline inspection commission of a Chinese government organization enforces party rules and internal party discipline. This notably extends to catching corrupt officials.
Last month, nine active-duty generals were accused of serious violations and expelled from the party and the military, including CMC vice chairman He Weidong, director of the Political Work Department Miao Hua and commander of the paramiliary People’s Armed Police Wang Chunning.
Despite multiple purges and institutional reforms, recurring instability in the personnel system raises questions about the real combat readiness and cohesion of China’s armed forces.
OBSERVATION - Better details at the link. It would be challenging for China to launch a major military operation, either a full on blockade of Taiwan or even action against the Philippines in the disputed regions, if his military leadership is corrupted - and that corruption trickles downward, corroding overall combat readiness. Remember, China hasn’t mustered a modern fighting force since the Korean war, and in that instance was mostly human wave efforts. Modern warfare with high tech systems just haven’t been put to real testing yet.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 30-40 degree range, mostly cloudy with widely scattered showers
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine’s air defenses intercepted or suppressed 108 out of 135 Russian drones overnight, including around 90 Shaheds. Still, 27 drones hit targets across 13 locations.
Ukrainian drone/missile strike hit the Sterlitamak Petrochemical Plant in Bashkortostan again, early this morning.
On the evening of Nov 5, Ukraine struck a major Geran-2 (Shahed) drone base at Donetsk airport with cruise missiles and drones. An ammo depot, fuel storage, and pre-launch prep site were destroyed. Power and comms nodes damaged. Up to 1,000 drones and 1,500 warheads were reportedly on site.
Ukraine’s General Staff confirms a strike on the LUKOIL refinery in Volgograd along with three fuel depots in occupied Crimea.
Russian losses per 06/11/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1170 men
+6 ACVs
+15 artillery systems
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Not much forward on the fight - probably surpassed by OPSEC from both sides. No doubt still intense and not settled in any manner.
Analysis and Future Operations —
Brilliant stroke by Ukraine overnight, finding and hitting a Geran-2 (Shahed) drone base at Donetsk airport. From videos posted to social media, it blew up real good. From a tactical view, it wasn’t the smartest move by Russia to place such a facility so far forward.
The relative silence on Pokrovsk from my sources is good and bad. If bad, Russia would be pushing the news. If good for Ukraine, I’d expect continued silence because of continued OPSEC knowing they are not out of the woods yet in this fight. Information I do see indicates that the fighting is most intense on the southern approaches to Pokrovsk while it appears that Ukrainian counter attacks on the northern pincer have lessened action there.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Israel continues to reduce Hamas forces within its “Yellow Zone”
- Pressure building towards larger action against Hezbollah.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
IDF standing down some of the Reserve units called up for the fight in Gaza.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Israeli media: The army launched air and ground strikes this morning on several targets in the Khan Younis area, southern Gaza Strip.
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Israeli forces have carried out a series of air raids and demolitions east of Gaza City amid the ongoing ceasefire violations by Hamas.
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Israel has issued new restrictions along the Gaza border with Egypt due to the increase in drones attempting to bring arms and munitions to Hamas elements.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Things have reached a kind of dynamic stability with Gaza. Hamas is not going to get its forces within the “Yellow Zone” released even with some international pressure from Egypt and Qatar.
Hamas continues to dodge the disarmament clause with help from Egypt et al who suggest that the peace plan doesn’t really address that point. It is in Egypt’s and many other arab counties interest to maintain an armed, anti-Israeli element in Gaza to keep Israel’s attention there and not the rest of the region. The results from the post Oct 7 wars indicate that Israel is capable of dealing with multiple fronts at the same time.
Fighting in Lebanon may break out by the end of the month. Right now the Lebanese govt and Hezbollah are only engaged in a war of words. Israel will once again show them real war. See Lebanon below for more observations.
(BTW, I’m considering reopening a Lebanon/Hezbollah section back under Israel should serious fighting breakout to keep common news together and not spread out. )
Lebanon - Threat Level - ADVISORY November 5, 2025
Threat level set separate due to growing threat from Hezbollah ruining the current ceasefire
Hezbollah has issued an open letter to Lebanon’s President, Parliament Speaker, and Prime Minister, opposing talks with Israel: “The negotiations do not serve a national interest and pose existential risks that threaten the Lebanese entity and its sovereignty.”
Sami Jamil of Lebanon’s Christian Al Kataeb party reacts to Hezbollah’s letter:
“Hezbollah insists on dragging us into a new destructive war. It is unacceptable for a minority held hostage to dictate the fate of the free majority.”.
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Unconfirmed reports In recent hours, the United States has informed Western and Arab countries that “Israel has decided to escalate its operations in Lebanon to put pressure on Hezbollah.”
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One person killed in an Israeli airstrike on a car in the town of Burj Rahal, southern Lebanon
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Lebanese media reports Israeli airstrikes in the Tyre area. Israel claims it was a facility being rebuilt by Hezbollah.
OBSERVATIONS - As noted yesterday, it seems that Lebanon is being given until the end of the month to get its act together against Hezbollah. The US warning, noted above, suggests that any Israeli action would have the support of the US.
Some feedback from Israeli sources suggest that an Israeli campaign would be about a couple weeks long and very intense, with a lot of airstrikes and some expansion of ground being held in S Lebanon. Such action likely would cause Hezbollah to come out of hiding and counter attack, creating a larger target list for IAF.
Syria -
The U.S. plans a military presence at a Damascus airbase to support a Syria-Israel security agreement, Reuters reports.
OBSERVATION - US already has bases in the eastern regions of Syria as part of the fight against ISIS. A facility at the Damascus airport could result in complications should terror element use the site to store weapons and munitions like Hezbollah did, thinking they would be safe from Israeli attack.
Mexico -
Mexican President Sheinbaum again refused the U.S.’ offer for military intervention against the cartels in Mexico. Sheinbaum further called militarization a failed project “as happened with the war on drugs.”
Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025
Russia’s Deputy Chairman of their legislative defense committee said Russia is already sending weapons to Venezuela and sees no legal barrier to sending the Oreshnik intermediate range ballistic missiles.
OBSERVATION - This could generate a replay of the Cuban missile crisis. It would certainly result in US strikes on Venezuela to take out these systems as soon as they are unloaded and possibly use force or threat thereof to intercept Russian attempts to deliver via either air or sea.
Thanks Godzilla.
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