Threat Matrix 2025

Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 24th year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.

2024 has been “historic”: - The landslide election of Trump back into the Whitehouse, and the collapse of the massive lawfare effort against him. - Assassination attempts on Trump - Stunning defeat of Hamas and Hezbollah by Israel - Israel directly hits Iran after Iranian missile strikes, eliminating Iranian missile production capabilities for several years as well as destroying most of its air defense assets. - The almost overnight overthrow of Syria’s Assad and the associated serious losses to Russia and Iran/Hezbollah

I expect 2025 to be even worse as we are facing: - Massive political infighting as the Swamp tries to thwart the Trump agenda - Potential for civil unrest and violence driven by the communist left and Antifa affiliated elements. - Potential violence as Trump implements is deportation plan for millions of illegals. - The potential for a serious and deep recession - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - Combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Russian nuclear threats - China making a move on Taiwan - Israel and Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems.

It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.

For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.

How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.

Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.

My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose – even more so following 2022.

So buckle up for the ride. This is an open thread that I want to continue as a clearing house of tidbits of intelligence contributed by the FR community so that we are all aware of what’s happening and what the impacts of those events will be. Knowledge is power

Globalism / Great Reset –

Well, Bill Gates has admitted global warming isn’t the crisis he and others have made (billions) selling to the world.

Yet the powers that be consider censorship of opposition to the narrative to still be a priority. If they censor here, other censorship (like with wuhan) is a natural and are conditioning the sheeple for the next round -

No green activist operation makes clearer why they need to ban free speech and cancel scientific debate to achieve Net Zero hegemony than the Guardian newspaper. Last Saturday, we learnt from its Environment Editor Damian Carrington that campaigners had said the UK’s TV and radio regulator Ofcom was allowing GB News and others to ‘flout” accuracy rules and broadcast “climate change denial”, whatever that last phrase means. Carrington noted in response to frequent suggestions of inaccuracy in UN climate models going back to 1979, that, “in fact, UN climate models have been remarkably accurate”. How Carrington, one of three journalists of the year in 2023 at the Green Blob-funded Covering Climate Now, can write this with a straight face is anyone’s guess.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2025/10/30/guardian-ramps-up-efforts-to-ban-all-climate-dissent/

MORE GLOBALIST CENSORSHIP -

Barack Obama has a bold new proposal — actually not new at all; the social engineers have been viciously attacking independent media voices since at least 2016 following Hillary Clinton’s failed coronation — to regain control over the zeitgeist: eliminate dissident voices on social media.

“Part of what we’re going to have to do is to start experimenting with new forms of journalism and how we use social media in ways that reaffirm facts and separate facts from opinion. We want diversity of opinion. We don’t want diversity of facts*. That, I think, is one of the big tasks of social media. By the way, it will require some government, I believe, some government, um, regulatory constraints around some of these business models in a way that’s consistent with the First Amendment but that also says, look, uh, there is a difference between, uh, these platforms letting all voices be heard versus a business model that elevates the most hateful voices or the most polarizing voices or the most, uh, dangerous, in the sense of inciting violence, voices.”

https://pjmedia.com/benbartee/2025/10/30/watch-obama-demands-regulatory-constraints-of-social-media-n4945418

OBSERVATION - Obama, like other globalists, want to censor speech and allow only the govt to say what is true or not.

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WARNING as of Oct 25, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WARNING as of Oct 25, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
SF Bay area - Local Threat - ADVISORY as of Oct 25, 2025.

DATES TO NOTE -
.
CRITICAL DATE - Nov 1, 2025, EBT and SNAP benefits are gone due to govt shutdown.

Nov 5 - Revolutionary Communists to “flood” Washington, D.C. protests

MASS BLACKOUT - Nov 26 - Dec 2. Economic boycott.

22 November rally in Washington, D.C by “Removal Coalition”

NOTE - Additional protests being announced for DC, assessing the potential for violence or other direct action.

***
More info on the Nov 5 protest -
“Surround the White House. Surround the Capitol. Surround the illegitimate fascist-packed Supreme Court.”

Far-left group, Refuse Fascism, is organizing an insurrection on Nov. 5 in Washington, D.C. The plan is to besiege government buildings and streets until the U.S. government is toppled.

Refuse Fascism is headed up by members of Bob Avakian’s Revolutionary Communist Party.

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1983688658046669175?s=61&t=Ca4dYBe3FZLWI7Zi7HkShg

OBSERVATION - Their goal is to bring out millions to this protest. I don’t think they will see that level of support, but it does show the shift to direct action thinking by protest organizers, progressing in the Color revolution format.

***

They realize the only thing they can do is foment revolution. . .. They realize, as Karl Marx realized and Saul Alinsky realized, that the way you take control of a society is to destabilize it.
You destabilize it by destroying Judeo-Christian values, and you destabilize it by creating civil unrest and revolution.”

***
Well, Representative Jim Himes of Connecticut wants to warn Republicans that turnabout is fair play, and if Donald Trump wants to kill cartel members, perhaps President Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez might want to kill Republicans. Because that is the same thing, right?

Yes, that is how many Democrats think. Killing foreign terrorist cartel members, a constituency the Democrats apparently embrace, is no different than randomly killing people AOC or a different Democratic Party president doesn’t like.

https://hotair.com/david-strom/2025/10/30/connecticut-democratic-congressman-suggest-democratic-president-might-assassinate-maga-republicans-n3808352

The shift towards more over the top advocacy of violence by the left grows more every day. This is also seen more recently by liberal podcaster Jennifer Welch suggests the Dem establishment needs to get on board with wanting conservatives dead or else far-leftists will come “after you in the same way that we come after MAGA.”

https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1983292238538199398

OBSERVATION - The left has become very open in their desire for deadly violence against their political opposition. This will only drive the nut job lone wolves and Antifa inclined to act out on these desires as ‘legitimate’ forms of protest. This is an undercurrent that I think will continue to break into the open with violence, especially as midterms approach next year.

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

For the second time this year, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 0.25% This brings rates to 3.75-4.00%

The decision was widely expected by investors due to soft labor data and subdued inflation prints, with a further rate cut already being priced in by the market for December.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s blunt warning that investors need to rein in expectations for a December interest-rate cut underscored a growing tug-of-war among US policymakers who are opposed in their outlooks for jobs and inflation.

While Powell made it clear that the primary concern for some is a cooling job market, others inside the Fed are warning persistent inflation will limit room for more easing. And a freeze on the release of official economic data during the ongoing government shutdown is only hardening the divide. (Bloomberg)

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Trump announces that he has instructed the “Department of War” to resume the testing of nuclear weapons, in response to testing programs by other countries, citing both China and Russia. The last nuclear test by the United States was carried out on September 23, 1992, at the Nevada Test Site.

OBSERVATION - This has caused huge ripples across the world. It is unclear if Trump is calling for actual detonation of warhead, just components or more test firing of delivery systems. Resumption of nuclear tests would face a massive uphill fight in Congress as well as global pressure.

***
U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth announced earlier yet another drone strike carried out today against an alleged narco-trafficking vessel in the Eastern Pacific, resulted in the death of four suspected members of a Designated Terrorist Organization (DTO).

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics

Haven’t touched on the health effects of the jab in a while, but here is a new damning report -

A new peer-reviewed paper from Taipei Medical University has reported that 91 percent of Moderna mRNA-1273 recipients developed cardiovascular side effects during the observation period—within one week of receiving the Moderna mRNA-1273 vaccine.

https://x.com/Fynnderella1/status/1983221206724530470

Study -
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0014299925010234

POLITICAL FRONT –

The U.S. House Oversight Committee released its report on the investigation into former President Joe Biden’s cognitive health, resulting in referrals to the Justice Department and the D.C. Board of Medicine, citing multiple cover-ups of Biden’s cognitive decline. The report, released Tuesday morning, claims that the former president’s “inner circle” gaslit the American people on Biden’s cognitive decline. In addition to the referrals, the report argues that many of the former president’s executive actions signed by autopen could be invalid.

OBSERVATION - As much as I want it to happen, I don’t think anything will come from this report.

***
Grassley released 197 subpoenas that the Biden FBI reportedly used to gather testimony and information on over 400 Republican targets as part of the agency’s “Arctic Frost” probe.

197 subpoenas were issued by Jack Smith and his team. These subpoenas were issued to 34 individuals and 163 businesses, including financial institutions,” Grassley said, adding “Arctic Frost was the vehicle by which partisan FBI agents and DOJ prosecutors could improperly investigate the entire Republican political apparatus. Contrary to what Smith has said publicly, this was clearly a fishing expedition.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/bidens-jack-smith-enemies-list-scandal-widens-400-republican-targets-revealed

OBSERVATION - That alone is nearly 20% of Republicans in Congress. Alas, I doubt any further action will be taken apart from Smith getting nailed.

***
7th Circuit STRIKES DOWN insane leftist judge who required Border Commander Greg Bovino to appear *daily* in her court after he rightfully repelled rioters with crowd control. Judge Sarah Ellis’ order has been OVERTURNED

OBSERVATION - Quick reassertion of the separation of powers.

TRUMP Watch –

Trump said on Wednesday that he reached a trade deal with South Korea:

“South Korea has agreed to pay the USA 350 Billion Dollars for a lowering of the Tariff’s charged against them by the United States. Additionally, they have agreed to buy our Oil and Gas in vast quantities, and investments into our Country”.

***
Trump enroute back to the US after the S Korean meetings.

China -

President Trump met with China’s president Xi in South Korea. Trump called the meeting with Xi “amazing”

Trump agrees to cut China tariffs after a high-stakes South Korean summit with China’s President Xi.

Trump says China pledges to start buying U.S. soybeans and farm goods immediately — and to work “very hard” to stop fentanyl from reaching the U.S.

“Every year we’ll renegotiate the deal, but I think it’ll go on for a long time,” he adds.

But neither side has provided details of what a trade deal would look like.

North/South Korea –

The United States will share nuclear-powered submarine technology with South Korea, President Donald Trump said Thursday, marking a potentially historic expansion of military cooperation between the two allies. Trump announced the move on social media following his meeting Wednesday with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung in Seoul.

Phillipines –

U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) has ordered a “show of force” this week against recent and continuous Chinese aggression in the South China Sea, potentially involving the launch of several satellite-guided rockets by Marine Corps M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) towards the Scarborough Shoal, an atoll in the South China Sea disputed by China, Taiwan, and the Philippines, according to CBS News.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

NUCLEAR THREATS –

Putin announces successful test of Russia’s “Poseidon” nuclear-capable doomsday torpedo.

The weapon is designed to trigger radioactive tsunamis, potentially rendering entire coastal cities uninhabitable.

***

The Kremlin on Thursday reacted cautiously to President Donald Trump’s remarks about the resumption of nuclear weapons testing by the United States, saying that Russia had not tested but that Moscow would follow suit if Washington did.

Trump ordered the U.S. military on Thursday to immediately resume testing nuclear weapons after a gap of 33 years, minutes before beginning a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

“President Trump mentioned in his statement that other countries are engaged in testing nuclear weapons. Until now, we didn’t know that anyone was testing,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.

Peskov underscored that Russia’s test of the Burevestnik cruise missile on October 21 and the Poseidon nuclear-powered super torpedo on October 28 were most definitely not nuclear weapons tests.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/kremlin-trumps-nuclear-remarks-russia-has-not-tested-nuclear-weapons-2025-10-30/

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 40-50 degree range with rain and rain showers first part of the week.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukrainian air forces report overnight Russia launched 653 strike drones, 4 air-launched ballistic missile Kh-47M2 Kinzhal, 5 ballistic missiles Iskander-M/KN-23, 8 cruise missiles Kalibr, 2 cruise missiles Iskander-K, 30 cruise missiles Kh-101, 2 aviation guided missiles Kh-59/69 and 1 air-to-surface anti-radiation missile Kh-31P,

Total of 705 drones/missiles, Ukraine reports downing 623, mostly drones

Zaporizhzhia came under a combined missile and drone strike overnight, at least 20 attack drones and eight missiles. A dormitory and infrastructure facilities were partially destroyed. One person may still be trapped under the rubble. Rescue operations ongoing.

Last night, Ukrainian attack drones mounted a widespread raid deep into Russia. Ukrainian drones successfully hit the Novospassky Refinery, Mari Refinery, Budyonnovsk Gas Plant, Gvardeyskoye fuel depot, Stavrolen Zavod chemical plant, and the Novobryanskaya substation.

Russian losses per 30/10/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+960 men
+2 tanks
+3 ACVs
+25 artillery
+1 MLRS
+2 AD systems

Analysis and Future Operations —

Another massive drone/missile attack on Ukraine, focusing mostly on Western Ukraine where factories, ammo and munition dumps and power infrastructure are key targets. Big enough and close enough to Poland for them to scramble fighters to intercept any strays.

Battle for Pokrovsk is reportedly still intense, but it appears that Ukraine’s time is limited. Unconfirmed reports of a lot of finger pointing in the military.

Poland –

The Operational Command of the Polish Armed Forces reports the scramble of fighter jets with the Polish and Allied Air Forces, in response to an ongoing drone and missile attack by Russia against locations in Western Ukraine. In addition, early-warning aircraft have been deployed, and ground-based air defense systems as well as radar reconnaissance systems have reached a state of maximum readiness across Poland.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Scattered airstrikes in Gaza

——— GENERAL ——————————-

The defense minister vowed there will be “no immunity” for Hamas leaders, neither at home nor abroad. “There is and will be no immunity for anyone in the leadership of the Hamas terror organization, neither for those wearing suits nor for those hiding in tunnels. Anyone who raises a hand against IDF soldiers, his hand will be severed,” Katz declared.

***
Netanyahu visited last night the US base in southern Israel’s city of Kiryat Gat. The prime minister spoke with CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper and General Patrick Frank

“I am pleased to host our American friends here in Kiryat Gat. They are working together with us on a plan to achieve a different Gaza, a Gaza that will no longer pose a threat to Israel.”

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Israeli warplanes launched an airstrike on the electricity company building and a house in the town of Abasan, east of Khan Younis

***
Under Red Cross escort, Hamas used the hostage search as cover to uncover and retrieve weapons hidden inside an IDF-controlled zone.
(YNET)

***
IDF conducted a precise strike in the area of Beit Lahia in the northern Gaza Strip targeting a terrorist infrastructure site where weapons and aerial means were stored, intended to be used for the execution of an imminent terror attack against IDF soldiers and the State of Israel.

***
The IDF conducted 10 attacks in East Khan Yunis. These are attacks on Hamas infrastructures inside the area under IDF control.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Israel being more aggressive in hitting Hamas targets when identified and not waiting for action on their part.

The reports of collaboration between the Red Cross and Hamas are very concerning, but not surprising given that Hamas has corrupted every NGO in Gaza to some extent as well as the Red Cross staying absolutely silent while Hamas tortured Israeli hostages.

Seems Israel is also ramping up strikes on Hezbollah while pressure is being put on the Lebanese govt to get it in gear and do their part to disarm Hezbollah.

Lebanon -

Hezbollah calls for support to Lebanese army in confronting Israel after the President orders to the army to “foil” any Israeli incursion

***
The Israeli army: We carried out raids on military infrastructure and a Hezbollah launch site in Al-Mahmoudiya in southern Lebanon.

***
Israeli army confirmed it carried out an “overnight operation in Blida, southern Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah infrastructure. During the raid, troops encountered a suspect inside a building and opened fire after identifying an immediate threat”

***
ISW. The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire monitoring committee has agreed to meet more frequently, likely to encourage greater dialogue between Israel and Lebanon. The ceasefire monitoring committee may seek to increase dialogue between Israel and Lebanon to resolve ongoing disagreements between the two countries over the US and Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) plans to disarm Hezbollah.

Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025

Venezuela’s military announced on Wednesday that it has destroyed two Colombian drug trafficking camps in the country. According to reports, the military has destroyed “two logistical camps used by Colombian Tancol groups” in Venezuela. The operation is believed to be a way for the country to showcase its anti-drug efforts to the United States, which has troops nearby.

OBSERVATION - Trump’s deployment of firepower to the Caribbean has really spooked Venezuela into action. In this case, it is probably too little, too late and land based narco-terror sites will soon be hit.

Misc of Note –

Interesting study that indeed could indicate that the “Big One” could be REALLY big.

A new study published recently in Geosphere finds that some of the largest earthquakes along the Cascadia subduction zone may have triggered nearly simultaneous ruptures on California’s San Andreas fault. The discovery suggests that the “really big one” in the Pacific Northwest could cascade southward, affecting much of the U.S. West Coast in a single sequence.

When the Cascadia subduction zone moves, the results are catastrophic. A rupture along its 1 000 km (620 miles) length can reach magnitude 9 or higher, shaking the entire Pacific Northwest and launching tsunamis that cross oceans. For decades, such events were thought to be confined north of Cape Mendocino, where the Juan de Fuca and Gorda plates slide beneath the continent.

South of that point, California’s San Andreas fault takes over as the main boundary between the Pacific and North American plates. It moves sideways rather than under, producing large strike-slip earthquakes such as the one that destroyed San Francisco in 1906. The meeting place of these two systems, known as the Mendocino triple junction, has long been viewed as a dividing line between distinct tectonic worlds.

However, the new study suggests the opposite. Sediments preserved off the coast of northern California record evidence that the two systems have occasionally ruptured in quick succession. That means a Cascadia megathrust earthquake might transfer enough stress to trigger movement on the northern San Andreas.

If so, a single tectonic episode could cause damaging earthquakes hundreds of kilometres apart. The entire U.S. Pacific coast could shake in sequence, creating overlapping crises from Washington to the Bay Area.

https://watchers.news/epicenter/marine-cores-record-cascadia-megathrust-earthquakes-followed-by-near-simultaneous-san-andreas-fault-rupture/

OBSERVATION - When I was an undergrad (back in the stone knives and bear skin era), the thought that a major quake could trigger another quake on a different fault zone was generally discounted. Since then, better seismic coverage and analysis has documented many such instances. However, this is on a much larger scale but the two systems are connected in that the movement on the San Andreas is the same as the Cascadia plate movement, hence a magnitude 9 would potentially transfer the stress southward.

Bottom line for those preparedness minded
- Get away from tsunami prone zones across the Pacific NW. In fact, the ‘famous’ I-5 line is still valid, given that a lot of the transportation and other infrastructure west of I-5 will be severely hammered by the 9.0+ quake, though not impacted by any tsunami.
- The Kalifornia ‘Big One’ is still pending, look to get to more stable ground (if not out of the state altogether for other reasons).

- If staying put, make sure your supplies are stored where they won’t be lost in the damage from a big one.

Final note - Even if the Cascadia doesn’t trigger the San Andraes, the disaster would create something of a magnitude the US has never seen. Economic and other effects would ripple out across the country, and especially hard in northwestern US.

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

DATES TO NOTE -
.
CRITICAL DATE - Nov 1, 2025, EBT and SNAP benefits are gone due to govt shutdown.

Nov 5 - Revolutionary Communists to “flood” Washington, D.C. protests

MASS BLACKOUT - Nov 26 - Dec 2. Economic boycott.

22 November rally in Washington, D.C by “Removal Coalition”

NOTE - Additional protests being announced for DC, assessing the potential for violence or other direct action.

***
WEEKEND FORECAST - Still at WARNING levels and could jump to WATCH should EBT/SNAP not get refilled. This is highly likely now that the Senate has adjourned until Monday.
Apart from that very volatile potential, the announced protests are in the same old - same old realm of sign holding. Expect ICE facilities in towns noted above to have potential for night time violence with some day time directed actions.
With the wide range of potentials, best keep your ears open at the local level.

***
There has been an alarming 8,000% surge in death threats targeting U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced on Thursday.

DHS Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin said ICE agents are facing a wave of threats and intimidation while carrying out their duties to remove violent criminals, including murderers, rapists, pedophiles, terrorists, and gang members.

“Our ICE law enforcement is now facing an 8,000% increase in death threats against them while they risk their lives every single day to remove the worst of the worst,” McLaughlin said.

https://www.newsmax.com/us/dhs-ice-officers/2025/10/30/id/1232509/

OBSERVATION - Cheering the violence on are democrats and other vocal, visible leftists. In Illinois and Oregon, the blues states are plotting to charge and arrest ICE agents for violating ‘their’ laws etc. Congress critters have vowed to track down ICE agents and prosecute them. These are symptoms of the tearing apart of the rule of law and legal associations between states/cities and the federal govt.

***
A former high-ranking homeland security official in the first Trump administration is launching a new online hub Wednesday to facilitate protests and other resistance efforts against President Trump and his policies.
Miles Taylor, a former chief of staff at the Department of Homeland Security, is leading a group of dozens of former national security officials, whistleblowers and a bipartisan group of former elected officials to create a website called defiance.org.

Defiance.org is described in its mission statement as a “nationwide ‘mutual aid’ pact to defend those under attack.” It aims to support nonprofit partners, and says it will join “peaceful protests and legal defense efforts.”

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/former-senior-dhs-official-miles-taylor-new-web-tool-to-plan-protests-against-trump-administration/

OBSERVATION - An outlier of the deep state who’s development appears to be paralleling the move to the second stage of a color revolution - directed action. Further, this is more evidence that resistors are still buried in govt attempting to sabotage Trump.

***
Colorado Antifa groups Front Range Antifa and Colorado Springs Antifa put out a hit list on a 19-year-old TPUSA student leader at the University of Colorado, Boulder shortly before he was beaten by someone with a hockey stick near campus. Antifa put their logos on the hit list flyer to make it clear who was responsible for the call for violent direct action. Antifa accuse the teen of being a member of various “Nazi” groups.

The flyer was shared across social media by leftists, including the communist group Boulder Students for a Democratic Society. Convicted communist terrorist Bill Ayers was a member of the SDS.

Boulder Police in Colorado have arrested a radical leftist named Taylor James Rose, of Arvada, over the Antifa beating of a TPUSA student leader at @CUBoulder. Rose allegedly beat the victim with a hockey stick and escaped on roller blades. The violent attack occurred after Antifa put out a hit list flyer on the victim. He has been charged with felony second-degree assault. Police are seeking a second person of interest.

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1984086888232173706?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - Growing ineffectiveness of protests like NK 2.0, Antifa et al are growing more restless and looking to provoke more serious attacks, singling out individuals and smaller groups.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Senators are leaving the nation’s capital without passing a bill to reopen the government, leaving funding for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program hanging in the balance. Adjourned until Monday.

***
Trump has reportedly said the republicans in the senate need to execute the ‘nuclear’ option to get the CR passed over democrat objections.

OBSERVATION - Though possible, the danger down the road is the democrats will use the same tool over a republican filibuster. At present, cracks are developing in the groups that support democrats - big time labor unions - and the financial incentives to end this shut down become more pressing as midterms grow larger on the political screen. (see below)
NOTE - They are calling for the passage of this clean CR.

***
Teamsters Union President Sean O’Brien and United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby called on Senate Democrats to end the government shutdown during a Thursday press conference at the White House.

“We took a position three weeks ago, pass a clean CR, get to the table, negotiate a deal, do not put working people in the middle of a problem they should not be in there,” O’Brien said. “We got to think about the families that are going to be affected. Think about when you have to tell your son or daughter they can’t play sports because you’re not getting paid. Think about when you can’t pay your mortgage.”

“Think about when you can’t pay your tuition. Put the politics aside, get to the table, negotiate a deal, pass a clean CR right now, and then figure out the problems moving forward,” O’Brien said.

https://thelibertydaily.com/major-industry-ceo-union-boss-demand-democrats-toss/
OBSERVATION - More démocrat based unions seeing the light and calling out Schumer and senate democrats for a damaging govt shutdown.

INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –

AP Report: The Trump administration has capped refugee admissions to 7,500, with most slots reportedly designated for white South Africans.

The AFRIKANER Act (H.R. 2607) prioritizes refugees facing documented persecution, not race. Section 2(a)(1) explicitly covers South African minorities subjected to targeted violence, requiring vetting for credible fear of harm. This aligns with America’s sovereign right to set admission criteria based on security and assimilation capacity.

The 7,500 cap reflects a shift from Biden’s reckless 125k quota that overwhelmed vetting systems. Media framing this as “white preference” ignores the bill’s merit-based structure and South Africa’s own crime statistics showing Afrikaners face disproportionate farm attacks.

OBSERVATION - In this case this is LEGAL immigration. These are likely to be contributors and not leaches on society as are so many that biden let in during his reign.

TRUMP Watch –

Trump has arrived back in DC.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

The U.S. has reportedly cancelled the planned Trump–Putin summit in Budapest, after Moscow sent a hardline memo on Ukraine and a tense call between Marco Rubio and Sergey Lavrov.

FT reports the memo outlined Russia’s “non-negotiable” demands, seen in Washington as a direct challenge to Trump’s peace push.

OBSERVATION - This meeting was already on the rocks and this just formalizes the cancellation.

NUCLEAR THREATS –

Kremlin’s spokesman Peskov says Russia will conduct nuclear tests if the U.S. does.

Kerch Bridge update –

Russia is banning electric and hybrid vehicles from crossing the Crimean Bridge starting November 3, citing fears that batteries could be used to smuggle explosives. Access is blocked from both directions. Drivers are being redirected via a longer route from Taganrog to Dzhankoy in occupied Crimea.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 40-50 degree range with rain and rain showers first part of the week.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukraine’s air defense shot down or jammed 108 targets overnight, including 1 Iskander-M ballistic missile and 107 drones (mostly Shaheds). Russia launched 145 drones from multiple directions, including Crimea and mainland Russia. Despite 36 impacts, the majority were intercepted.

Ukrainian overnight strikes involved the Oryol TPP. This key cogeneration plant supplies up to 40% of the region’s electricity and 65% of Oryol’s central heating. Any disruption affects both power and heat in the city.

750 kV substation “Vladimirskaya” in the Vladimir region, which was hit by Ukrainian drones. Multiple hits were recorded.

FIRMS data shows a fire at the Slavneft-YANOS oil refinery in Yaroslavl after Ukrainian drone strikes at night.

Kyiv reports that Russia has used the Novator 9M729 cruise missile, banned under the INF Treaty, in 23 strikes on Ukraine since August. One flew over 1,200 km. This is the same missile that triggered the US withdrawal from the treaty in 2019.

Russian losses per 31/10/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+970 men
+5 tanks
+5 ACVs
+39 artillery
+2 MLRS
+1 AD system

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi says the situation near Pokrovsk remains difficult, but Russian claims about encircling Ukrainian forces are false.
“The enemy is changing tactics, using urban cover and avoiding direct clashes. Ukraine is countering with elite assault units, drones, and tight coordination. Progress continues in the Dobropillia direction,” he said.

Analysis and Future Operations —

The fight for Pokrovsk continues to be intense. However, without injecting a significant reserve forces to counter attack, Ukraine is just buying time.

Ukraine drone attacks continue their success hitting petroleum and power supply targets. Latest estimate is that Ukraine has taken out as much as 20% of Russia’s petroleum processing capability. That is a big loss to overcome.

Pakistan / Afghanistan –
Threat Level ADVISORY - OCT 26, 2025 -

Pakistan’s defense minister on Wednesday threatened to “obliterate” the Taliban, which controls neighboring Afghanistan, after negotiations toward lasting peace between the two sides failed.

Peace talks wrapped up in Istanbul, Turkey, without a “workable solution,” according to Pakistan Information Minister Attaullah Tarar, which comes after deadly clashes this month.

Negotiations ended with a disagreement over terror groups allegedly using Afghanistan as a base to attack security forces along Pakistan’s border.

https://nypost.com/2025/10/30/world-news/pakistan-threatens-to-obliterate-taliban-after-peace-talks-fall-apart/

OBSERVATION - There could be an outbreak of more fighting in the near future. At current, force deployments to the border region haven’t appeared to have changed any.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Israel to clean out Hamas from controlled “Yellow” zone areas, resulting in increased fighting around Khan Younis.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

The security cabinet discussed last night Hezbollah’s rearmament; the US is increasing pressure on Lebanon

Senior security officials claim that time is running out and the terrorist organization is rearming with rockets and violating the ceasefire. According to them, Israel is preparing for the possibility of a round that will include several days of intense fighting in Lebanon.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

A US official said that mediators in Egypt and Qatar informed Hamas last night (Wednesday evening) that it had 24 hours to evacuate its fighters from the area behind the yellow line currently controlled by Israeli forces, according to an Axios correspondent.

From now on, Israel is authorized to enforce the agreement within its own territory.

This marks a turning point: Washington has effectively greenlighted Israeli operations in the Bani Suheila area of Khan Younis.

Unlike before—when time was running out and concern for the hostages limited Israel’s actions—time now works in Israel’s favor. The IDF can consolidate full control over the 53% of Gaza already under its authority.

***

Israel launched airstrikes on Thursday evening on the towns of Abasan and Bani Suheila, east of Khan Younis, in the southern Gaza Strip, according to Palestinian media.

***
IDF expands operations in eastern Khan Yunis

Reports say Israeli forces are using booby-trapped robots to demolish buildings near Al-Awda School in Abasan al-Kabira, an untreated pocket inside the IDF-controlled zone.

A UAV strike yesterday killed Hamdi al-Barim, a Gazan operative, in the same area.

***
Two coffins containing the bodies of hostages have been handed over to the Red Cross who in turn handed them over to Israel . Hamas is still holding the dead bodies of 9 Israeli and 2 foreign hostages

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

It is going to get hot for Hamas cells within the Israeli controlled “Yellow” zone. Open season, which means more fighting and consolidation of Israeli control. This is one mechanism to force Hamas overall to cede their weapons and step down. Control over territory has been a key objective while trying to rebuild their forces. Hamas continued ceasefire violations have opened themselves up to this - they likely never saw it coming.

Attention is growing on reports that Israel is considering an additional push into Lebanon as well as a stepped up aerial campaign against Hezbollah and associated facilities. Smuggling operations thru Syria have reportedly supplied them with several hundred short ranged rockets and other munitions. Further evidence of Hezbollah rebuilding hardened storage and operational facilities. My guess is that any ground incursion would be to push Hezbollah further north while striking facilities/locations deeper in Lebanon. See further comments under Lebanon below.

Lebanon -

Israel tells Washington: Strikes in Lebanon will escalate as Hezbollah rebuilds its arsenal

OBSERVATION - US envoy and Israeli war preparations may or may not kick the Lebanese govt into high gear and become more proactive against Hezbollah. The danger is a triggering of a level of civil war between govt factions and those supporting Hezbollah. By force, Hezbollah has burrowed operatives into the Govt and has had a disproportionate role in running it on the basis of its shear military capabilities. (Remember, might makes right in the arab world). The only reason elements of the Lebanese govt are willing to speak out against Hezbollah is that they have been severely degraded by it war with Israel.

Lebanon should take very serious the threat of Israel expanding operations in S Lebanon due to ceasefire violations by Hezbollah and lack of effort by Lebanon to uphold its part of the agreement.

Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025

Unconfirmed reports that some of the land based narco-terrorist targets in Venezuela consist of govt military controlled airfields and ports. This should not surprise anyone, as the military most likely has been corrupted by the drug gangs and provides cover for their operations in this manner.

Misc of Note –

Back on a communications note. There are a lot of advertisements for small hand held radios claiming the ability to communicate across the country in the event of a disaster. Simple warning, they can only do that via cell phone towers, using a point to point methodology. In a disaster, cell phone networks will likely go down for multiple reasons, leaving the user with an expensive paperweight that cannot even communicate to local friends or mutual assistance groups.

So,. buyer beware. Even be aware of the claims of these bubble packed ‘walkie talkie” radios found in many sporting goods and other stores. Claims of 35 - 45 miles are under the exceptionally most favorable conditions. They are low powered - usually under 1 watt - and under practical conditions can’t reach more than a few miles.

For reliable, local comms today’s systems are Ham 2m radios and newer GMRS systems. Both can crank up the power to 50-75 watts and in some cases have a repeater for support, increasing coverage to as much as a hundred miles or more, depending on local conditions. Of course Ham license (Technician - minimal) is necessary for 2 meter. A free GMRS license for those systems - covers all family members.

Of course there will be those rogues who refuse to get licensed for either. However, in a disaster it is wise not to walk over those who are licensed as they have access to the support you may need. Ignorant unlicensed operators interfered with rescue operations in N Carolina last year.

Remember, curtesy is the best policy. Legitimate emergency traffic by unlicensed individuals over Ham frequencies is allowed by law. Otherwise, interference could cost someone else their life.

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

DATES TO NOTE -
.
CRITICAL DATE - Nov 1, 2025, EBT and SNAP benefits are gone due to govt shutdown.

Nov 5 - Revolutionary Communists to “flood” Washington, D.C. protests

MASS BLACKOUT - Nov 26 - Dec 2. Economic boycott.

22 November rally in Washington, D.C by “Removal Coalition”

NOTE - Additional protests being announced for DC, assessing the potential for violence or other direct action.

***
There has been an alarming 8,000% surge in death threats targeting U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced on Thursday.

“Our ICE law enforcement is now facing an 8,000% increase in death threats against them while they risk their lives every single day to remove the worst of the worst,” McLaughlin said.

https://www.newsmax.com/us/dhs-ice-officers/2025/10/30/id/1232509/

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/former-senior-dhs-official-miles-taylor-new-web-tool-to-plan-protests-against-trump-administration/

The flyer was shared across social media by leftists, including the communist group Boulder Students for a Democratic Society. Convicted communist terrorist Bill Ayers was a member of the SDS.

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1984086888232173706?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - Growing ineffectiveness of protests like NK 2.0, Antifa et al are growing more restless and looking to provoke more serious attacks, singling out individuals and smaller groups.

POLITICAL FRONT –

***
Trump has reportedly said the republicans in the senate need to execute the ‘nuclear’ option to get the CR passed over democrat objections.

***
Teamsters Union President Sean O’Brien and United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby called on Senate Democrats to end the government shutdown during a Thursday press conference at the White House.

INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –

AP Report: The Trump administration has capped refugee admissions to 7,500, with most slots reportedly designated for white South Africans.

OBSERVATION - In this case this is LEGAL immigration. These are likely to be contributors and not leaches on society as are so many that biden let in during his reign.

TRUMP Watch –

Trump has arrived back in DC.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

The U.S. has reportedly cancelled the planned Trump–Putin summit in Budapest, after Moscow sent a hardline memo on Ukraine and a tense call between Marco Rubio and Sergey Lavrov.

FT reports the memo outlined Russia’s “non-negotiable” demands, seen in Washington as a direct challenge to Trump’s peace push.

OBSERVATION - This meeting was already on the rocks and this just formalizes the cancellation.

NUCLEAR THREATS –

Kremlin’s spokesman Peskov says Russia will conduct nuclear tests if the U.S. does.

Kerch Bridge update –

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 40-50 degree range with rain and rain showers first part of the week.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

750 kV substation “Vladimirskaya” in the Vladimir region, which was hit by Ukrainian drones. Multiple hits were recorded.

FIRMS data shows a fire at the Slavneft-YANOS oil refinery in Yaroslavl after Ukrainian drone strikes at night.

Russian losses per 31/10/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+970 men
+5 tanks
+5 ACVs
+39 artillery
+2 MLRS
+1 AD system

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Analysis and Future Operations —

The fight for Pokrovsk continues to be intense. However, without injecting a significant reserve forces to counter attack, Ukraine is just buying time.

Pakistan / Afghanistan –
Threat Level ADVISORY - OCT 26, 2025 -

Pakistan’s defense minister on Wednesday threatened to “obliterate” the Taliban, which controls neighboring Afghanistan, after negotiations toward lasting peace between the two sides failed.

Peace talks wrapped up in Istanbul, Turkey, without a “workable solution,” according to Pakistan Information Minister Attaullah Tarar, which comes after deadly clashes this month.

Negotiations ended with a disagreement over terror groups allegedly using Afghanistan as a base to attack security forces along Pakistan’s border.

https://nypost.com/2025/10/30/world-news/pakistan-threatens-to-obliterate-taliban-after-peace-talks-fall-apart/

OBSERVATION - There could be an outbreak of more fighting in the near future. At current, force deployments to the border region haven’t appeared to have changed any.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Israel to clean out Hamas from controlled “Yellow” zone areas, resulting in increased fighting around Khan Younis.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

The security cabinet discussed last night Hezbollah’s rearmament; the US is increasing pressure on Lebanon

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

From now on, Israel is authorized to enforce the agreement within its own territory.

This marks a turning point: Washington has effectively greenlighted Israeli operations in the Bani Suheila area of Khan Younis.

***

Israel launched airstrikes on Thursday evening on the towns of Abasan and Bani Suheila, east of Khan Younis, in the southern Gaza Strip, according to Palestinian media.

***
IDF expands operations in eastern Khan Yunis

Reports say Israeli forces are using booby-trapped robots to demolish buildings near Al-Awda School in Abasan al-Kabira, an untreated pocket inside the IDF-controlled zone.

A UAV strike yesterday killed Hamdi al-Barim, a Gazan operative, in the same area.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Lebanon -

Israel tells Washington: Strikes in Lebanon will escalate as Hezbollah rebuilds its arsenal

Lebanon should take very serious the threat of Israel expanding operations in S Lebanon due to ceasefire violations by Hezbollah and lack of effort by Lebanon to uphold its part of the agreement.

Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025

Misc of Note –

Remember, curtesy is the best policy. Legitimate emergency traffic by unlicensed individuals over Ham frequencies is allowed by law. Otherwise, interference could cost someone else their life.

Well, time to screw our biological clocks up again as we fall back on hour tonight.

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

DATES TO NOTE -
.
CRITICAL DATE - Nov 1, 2025, EBT and SNAP benefits are gone due to govt shutdown.

Nov 5 - Revolutionary Communists to “flood” Washington, D.C. protests

MASS BLACKOUT - Nov 26 - Dec 2. Economic boycott.

22 November rally in Washington, D.C by “Removal Coalition”

NOTE - Additional protests being announced for DC, assessing the potential for violence or other direct action.

***
WEEKEND FORECAST - Still at WARNING levels and could jump to WATCH should EBT/SNAP not get refilled. This is highly likely now that the Senate has adjourned until Monday.

Apart from that very volatile potential, the announced protests are in the same old - same old realm of sign holding. Expect ICE facilities in towns noted above to have potential for night time violence with some day time directed actions.

With the wide range of potentials, best keep your ears open at the local level.

***
Are SNAP/EBT cards refilled today? I believe the answer is still no, in spite of the overnight ruling by two rogue district judges. Ambiguities in the two decisions, as well as the clear constitutional principles involved, will allow the DoJ to slow walk this as an emergency appeal is being made.

The judicial decisions may have calmed the mob for a moment, but it won’t help at the checkout line with an empty card. Potential for growing violence as the weekend progresses is still a strong possibility.

***
Secretary of War Pete Hegseth extended the deployment of National Guard troops in Washington, D.C. until February 2026. There are 2,389 National Guard troops currently deployed in Washington, D.C., and 1,427 of those troops are from Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Ohio, South Dakota and West Virginia.

***
Customs and Border Protection (CBP) Chief Greg Bovino said coordinated attacks were conducted on federal agents on Wednesday as Bovino left a federal courthouse. According to Bovino, a coordinated vehicle ramming attack was conducted against CBP agents for a period of 40 minutes, with as many as 70 vehicles attempting to ram CBP vehicles.

RELATED - Video posted to social media show a red car that rear ended an ICE vehicle transporting an illegal to detention. Three occupants of the red car then attempted to try to release the illegal before being grounded and arrested by ICE. A large flash mob surrounded the agents and vehicle cheering on the rammers. The illegal along with the three rammers were placed in the ICE vehicle and it managed to drive away.

OBSERVATION - Coordinated actions speak to a larger conspiracy to impede federal law enforcement. Also speaks to an increasing threat to ICE and other federal agents. As the example above, the anti-ICE elements have the capability to spring a flash mob as back up. It is only a matter of time before another of these leftists attempt to use firearms to gain the release of detained illegals or try to prevent the arrest in the first place.

Terrorism - Threat Level - ADVISORY as of OCT 26, 2025
Downgraded due to declining global threats and middle east war

***
The FBI has reportedly arrested five people in what is being called a thwarted terror attack planned for Halloween night in Michigan.

Five people between the ages of 16 and 20 were arrested Friday, CBS News has learned. Authorities say they were inspired by a former member of the Michigan Army National Guard (a moslem) who was arrested in May for allegedly planning an ISIS-inspired attack against a U.S. Army site in suburban Detroit.
(Just a reminder that Detroit suburbs like Dearborn Heights are majority-Muslim.)

Michigan Halloween arrests are tied to international terrorism, top federal law enforcement source tells Fox News

So far, the targets of this planned attacks have not been announced, though there is talk that Jewish synagogues or other sites were on their list.

OBSERVATION -The MSM will be sitting tight on this event because moslems are one of the ‘protected’ classes.

***
The Atlantic reported that top Trump officials and their families have been moved to military bases due to ongoing and continued physical threats.

OBSERVATION - The Doxxing of officials has been incredibly intense and in these cases leftist have actually gone to the homes of these officials in an effort to threaten and intimidate them.

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

Oil prices spiked yesterday with the rumors of an impending strike on Venezuela

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

As of October 31, the USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) is still loitering in the Ionian Sea off the coast of Italy, waiting to link up with the remainder of Carrier Strike Group Twelve (CSG-12) currently deployed to the Mediterranean Sea. Once most of the ships are together, the Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group will begin its two week or longer journey towards the Caribbean, likely arriving between November 12-17.

***
The Pentagon has given the White House a green light to provide Ukraine with tomahawk missiles following an assessment that it would not affect US stockpiles. The final decision is in Trump’s hands. - CNN

***
Secretary Hegseth confirmed that the nuclear testing order will involve the Department of Energy (DOE). The Department of Energy is in charge of the nuclear warhead stockpile through the National Nuclear Security Administration.

OBSERVATION - DOE’s involvement suggests that the testing may involve components of warheads, minus the nuclear material but doesn’t rule out actual functioning rounds as well.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Judge Kollar-Kotelly, a veteran of the Washington establishment who has presided over numerous politically charged cases, declared that the President lacked the authority to direct the U.S. Election Assistance Commission (EAC) to update federal registration forms to require documentation like a birth certificate, passport, or naturalization papers. Her decision effectively removes any verification process at the federal level for proving that a person registering to vote is actually a U.S. citizen.

The case centered on the National Voter Registration Act (NVRA), often referred to as the “Motor Voter” law, which established a standardized federal form for voter registration. The Trump administration’s executive order sought to close the loophole that allows applicants to simply check a box claiming citizenship—without providing any proof. In her ruling, however, Kollar-Kotelly sided with left-wing groups who argued that the requirement would burden potential voters.

The effect of the ruling is simple but devastating: anyone, including non-citizens, can now use the federal voter registration form without ever proving they belong in the electorate of the United States. In other words, the government is trusting the “honor system” in an age of illegal immigration, mail-in ballots, and massive voter databases riddled with errors.

Election integrity advocates say this is precisely how trust in American democracy continues to erode. “Citizenship verification isn’t voter suppression—it’s common sense,” one constitutional attorney said after the decision. “You can’t board a plane without ID. You can’t buy alcohol without ID. Yet Democrats want you to vote without proving you’re even a citizen.”
https://patriot.tv/woke-clinton-judge-scraps-proof-of-citizenship-requirement-for-federal-voter-registration/

OBSERVATION - Another activist judge who’s ruling will eventually be overturned by a higher court - most likely the USSC.

***
Two federal judges blocked the Trump administration from ceasing to pay SNAP benefits that help feed 42 million Americans during the U.S. government shutdown. They ordered the administration to use allegedly available funds in the USDA budget to load cards up.

However, the rulings from both judges conflict and neither can be fully met at the same time.

Focal point is the claim that $6 billion in contingency funds already set aside by Congress is available to continue issuing SNAP benefits. The administration is arguing that the way congress wrote the law prohibits its use in this manner.
Essentially the courts are demanding that the administration break the law to fund SNAP.

The fact clearly is that these justices have stepped way out side their boundaries to usurp Executive and Congressional authority. The administration will likely slow walk compliance with this order, demanding that the judges very clearly specify how such a funding is legal while it is appealed to higher courts. This ruling cannot be allowed to stand on simple constitutional separation of powers basis.

RELATED -
Trump said Friday his administration is seeking immediate court clarification on how to legally fund the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program during the ongoing government shutdown.

“Our Government lawyers do not think we have the legal authority to pay SNAP with certain monies we have available, and now two Courts have issued conflicting opinions on what we can and cannot do,” Trump wrote Friday night on Truth Social.

https://www.newsmax.com/politics/snap-donald-trump-chuck-schumer/2025/10/31/id/1232774/

OBSERVATION - I don’t think we’ll see EBT cards fill until well into next week. These justices are on very thin ice and likely have broken thru the separation of powers clause of the Constitution.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****
Personnel Issues –

Russia has officially integrated occupied Ukrainian territories into its Southern Military District and plans to begin mobilizing 50,000 to 100,000 residents for the war effort, according to Ukraine’s National Resistance Center. Men aged 18–55, including conscripts, are reportedly targeted for forced recruitment.

Economic Impact –

For the first time, Russia will borrow in Chinese yuan to plug its ballooning budget deficit, Reuters reports. The finance ministry plans to issue ¥300-400 billion worth of yuan-denominated bonds domestically, after failing for over a decade to secure favorable terms from Beijing. First placements may come in December.

OBSERVATION - I think I noted years ago when China started ‘helping’ Russia that the action would eventually end up having Russia so in debt to it that it would be under China’s thumb and under great debt. This in turn would cause Russia to capitulate potentially resources and even land in far eastern Russia to the Chinese.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 40-50 degree range with rain and rain showers first part of the week.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Russia launched 223 attack drones overnight, including around 140 Shaheds, from multiple directions. Ukrainian air defense shot down or suppressed 206 of them using aviation, SAMs, EW units, and mobile fire groups. Seventeen drones hit targets.

Power was reportedly knocked out in the Moscow suburb of Zhukovskiy tonight after a Ukrainian drone attack.

Ukraine’s GUR successfully conducted a major sabotage operation in Moscow, successfully blowing up the main gasoline, diesel fuel, and aviation fuel pipelines for Russia’s capital.

Russian losses per 01/11/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+900 men
+6 tanks
+2 ACVs
+9 artillery
+1 MLRS
+2 AD systems

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Ukraine has reportedly launched a local counteroffensive near Pokrovsk to restore key logistics routes, The Economist reports. GUR (UH-60 Blackhawk) helicopters and special forces have landed in areas Russians consider under their control.

Fierce fighting reported around the insertion, with some reports indicating that Russian FPVs have pinned down the element.

***
Ukrainian forces marginally advanced during recent counterattacks north of Pokrovsk as Russian forces continue to infiltrate into Pokrovsk and east of Myrnohrad (east of Pokrovsk).

It is estimated that Russia now controls about half of Pokrovsk

Analysis and Future Operations —

Fighting to hold Pokrovsk continues to be fierce as both sides are doggedly determined not to let the other win. Ukraine counter attack north of the city continue to be effective. However, should the city fall, Myrnohrad will go quickly thereafter having critical supply lines lost. This battle is testing the mettle of both sides. Russia currently has a slight advantage but that depends on how long the can supply reserve forces to the fight. putin is desperate to be able to claim some sort of victory following a summer of just more of the same meat grinder.

Unconfirmed reports that Russia is looking to forcefully conscript as many as 100K from occupied regions in the south suggest that they are having more and more personnel recruiting problems. Loyalty of these conscripts may well be questionable, though there are likely Russian supporters in the civilian mix. Forcing those who still see themselves as Ukranians to fight other Ukrainians may well blow up in Russia’s face in addition to international push back for this seemingly illegitimate conscription.

On a longer term view, Russia’s economic woes continue to force it to creatively finance the war effort. Basically selling itself off to China at premium rates. This goes back to continued analysis that Russia may well hit the wall in maintaining combat tempo in 2026.

Also on a longer term view is the question of whether or not Ukraine will receive some Tomahawk cruise missiles. Russia’s use of the Novator 9M729 cruise missile, banned under the INF Treaty, may help swing that use. The Tomahawks will give Ukraine some additional time to develop their own deep strike systems, while putting hurt to criterial Russian production facilities (petroleum and military related) in the crosshairs.

Belarus -

Lukashenko is once again threatening Europe, claiming the “Oreshnik” missile system will be combat-ready in Belarus by December. “If things go bad, we’ll sit down with Putin and strike,” he said.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Hamas released 3 bodies that were not hostages.

- Israel stepping up on clearing out Hamas targets in Khan Yunis.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Airstrikes and artillery shelling east of Khan Yunis city. This is inside Israel’s “Yellow” zone

***
After examinations at Israel’s forensic institute, it has been confirmed that, as previously presumed, all three remains transferred to Israel from Gaza last night are **not** associated with any of the 11 Israeli fallen hostages. Israel maintains that Hamas has both the knowledge and the ability to return most of them at this time but is playing games and buying time

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

Israel is approving more Israeli developments in the area.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Hamas elements in the “Yellow” zone to be severely hammered and could severely harm Hamas’ overall capabilities. At present, expansion of fighting into unoccupied area of Gaza are minimal, consisting of drone missile strikes on identified Hamas teams setting up to attack Israeli forces.

Increasing scrutiny on Hezbollah and S Lebanon as Hezbollah regroups and manages to smuggle anti-tank weaponry. I see a general pattern being used again should fighting break out again and that would be intense bombing and artillery fire - and you better know darn well the Mossad has these positions identified very well. This would be followed by methodical, Israeli ground force movements to clean out Hezbollah positions in greater detail. This was slow, but through. The Lebanese govt is already under pressure from the US to get its act together and deal with Hezbollah.

I think such an uptick in fighting will hold until after the first of the year, given that the Lebanese govt has claimed that they will have finished disarming Hezbollah by then. Seeing the failed portion of the ceasefire agreement, Israel will see itself in a position to more freely act.

Lebanon -

Lebanon accuses Israel of responding to negotiation offer by ‘Intensifying’ attacks

Israel targeted and killed two Hezbollah targets in two attacks via drone launched missiles.

Hezbollah is rearming and rebuilding its forces in violation of a cease-fire deal, raising fears of renewed conflict with Israel, according to Israeli and Arab intelligence. The group is restocking rockets, antitank missiles, and artillery with Iranian support. — WSJ

OBSERVATION - See Israel above. Lebanon’s clock is ticking down on taking care of Hezbollah themselves.

Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025

Rumors spread by the Miami Herald overnight said that the US was hours away from striking narco-terrorist facilities in Venezuela. Trump denied he was considering strikes inside Venezuela - Reuters

The rumors were also fueled by the US military operations with B52s and supporting aircraft flying close to Venezuela as well as flight restrictions south of PR.

***
Amid the threat of US attacks, Venezuela has asked Russia, China and Iran for military assistance.

Venezuela’s transport minister told an Iranian official that Venezuela was in need of “passive detection equipment,” “GPS scramblers” and “almost certainly drones with 1,000 km [600 mile] range”.

***
According to military sources cited by the Trinidad and Tobago Express, the Trinidad and Tobago Defence Force has been placed on high alert, with the same elevated readiness extended to the Trinidad and Tobago Coast Guard.

The internal alert level, referred to as “State One Posture,” represents the highest level of operational readiness within the nation’s defense structure and is believed to have been enacted as a precautionary measure.

Personnel have been placed on a heightened state of alert and ordered to report to their bases by 1800 on October 31st.
Internal messages state “This is not a drill.”

Venezuela has warned it could retaliate against Trinidad and Tobago if the island assists Washington in any attack on its territory - Miami Herald

OVERALL OBSERVATIONS - Trump has Venezuela wetting their pants with these displays of force. At present, we can strike land targets without the necessity of having boots on the ground. Any escalation of the drug war will see these strikes first. Any boots on the ground scenario will see additional battlefield preparations and shaping before insertion of US forces. This I see is way down the road.

A key window that may suggest a time when action is escalated is when the USS Ford CSG arrives in the region and the couple weeks following that as they get the feel for the region and ramped up for any operations. Again, the Ford is not expected to be on station for about 3 weeks. I would expect the Ford’s key mission to be ground support of any forces on the ground.

We have enough systems in place and that can fly in from the US to handle missile/bombing of sites.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Danish cows are producing less milk and collapsing, with farmers placing the blame on a controversial new feed additive that’s supposed to reduce their methane emissions.

Since 1 October, farmers in Denmark have begun adding Bovaer into their cows’ feed to reduce their production of the greenhouse gas methane as they graze.
Environmentalists say methane emissions from livestock are one of the major contributors to global warming.

Danish newspaper Jyllands-Posten reported on Friday that it had spoken to a number of farmers who believe Bovaer is harming their herds.
“We have so many people who call us and are unhappy about what is happening in their herds,” said Kjartan Poulsen, chairman of the National Association of Danish Dairy Producers.

Farmers have reported lower yields of milk, and in some cases that the animals have collapsed. Some have even had to be euthanized.

Bovaer is manufactured by the Dutch company DSM and was approved by European Commission as an addition to cattle feed in 2022. The European Food Safety Authority has said the additive poses no risk to the health of cows.
Some of the farmers who spoke to Jyllands-Posten said they had removed Bovaer from the feed and their animals recovered.

The National Association of Danish Dairy Producers has now begun an investigation into the reports.

OBSERVATION - Not surprising. Globalists continuing to focus on sabotaging our food supply.

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

DATES TO NOTE -
.
CRITICAL DATE - Nov 1, 2025, EBT and SNAP benefits are gone due to govt shutdown.

Nov 5 - Revolutionary Communists to “flood” Washington, D.C. protests

MASS BLACKOUT - Nov 26 - Dec 2. Economic boycott.

22 November rally in Washington, D.C by “Removal Coalition”

NOTE - Additional protests being announced for DC, assessing the potential for violence or other direct action.

***
WEEKEND FORECAST - Still at WARNING levels and could jump to WATCH should EBT/SNAP not get refilled. This is highly likely now that the Senate has adjourned until Monday.

With the wide range of potentials, best keep your ears open at the local level.

***
Things seem relatively quiet on the SNAP/EBT side, with no substantial reports of mass looting of grocery stores, just the standard levels of attempts at shoplifting. I think things may pick up next week as the rogue judges try to press the administration to violate the law to fund payments.

Here is another mitigating factor. EBT payments for SNAP benefits are typically issued on a monthly schedule, with specific dates assigned based on the last digit of the head of household’s ID number. This means that benefits are spread throughout the month, allowing recipients to access their funds at different times. So we are not seeing the entire 42 million being zeroed out at the same time, but a fraction of them.
But lets be real, the class of people will willingly join in looting stores even if they have money in their cards.

***

Antifa actions at ICE facilities in Portland and Chicago continued at various levels of activity.

Yesterday Illinois State Troopers have declared an unlawful assembly outside the ICE Broadview facility near Chicago. They warned that those who refuse to leave will face chemical munitions and arrest.

In Portland, federal law enforcement agents arrested Antifa forces - in black bloc - who were trying to block access to the ICE facility.

Terrorism - Threat Level - ADVISORY as of OCT 26, 2025
Downgraded due to declining global threats and middle east war

***
An explosion which was reportedly “intentional” occurred Saturday morning at Harvard Medical School.

The Harvard Crimson reported that a device exploded inside the Goldenson Building at Harvard’s Longwood medical campus on the morning of Nov. 1. The details came from a Harvard University Police Department (HUPD) message to affiliates of the university.

An officer who responded shortly before 3 a.m. observed two individuals fleeing the building, according to the email sent by HUPD spokesperson Steven G. Catalano this afternoon.

The Boston Fire Department Arson Unit responded to the incident and determined the explosion to be intentional.

https://pjmedia.com/catherinesalgado/2025/11/01/breaking-intentional-explosion-rocks-harvard-n4945507

OBSERVATION - Further details have not come out, such as type of a device, motivation, etc.

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Another strike on drug smugglers in the Caribbean.

POLITICAL FRONT –

FBI Director Kash Patel has reportedly removed one of the senior agents who led the controversial “Operation Arctic Frost” investigation into President Donald Trump.

According to reports from MSNBC, Patel has ousted Aaron Tapp, a Special Agent in Charge who led the FBI’s San Antonio Field Office and played a central role in the Arctic Frost operation.

https://www.lifezette.com/2025/11/fbi-director-patel-purges-leadership-after-arctic-frost-scandal-exposed-watch/

OBSERVATION - I expect more to come. It would be foolish of him to keep agents so willing to violate the constitution in a witch hunt employed in the agency.

***
A court-ordered distribution of emergency SNAP funds would require the Trump administration to break the law. They’ve asked for clarity from the woke judge who demanded it.

Brooke Rollins, Secretary of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), explained why SNAP cannot be sustained absent new congressional funding. She noted that while there is a so-called contingency fund, that fund “is only allowed to flow if the underlying appropriation is approved.” In other words: Congress must first appropriate the funds; otherwise even the reserve pot is off-limits.

In practical terms: if Congress fails to pass a continuing resolution or appropriation for the program, the Antideficiency Act prohibits federal agencies from obligating or expending funds for that program.

https://economiccollapse.report/why-snap-benefits-cant-be-funded-without-congressional-action/

OBSERVATION - This really strikes at the heart of these rogue judges - now demanding the administration VIOLATE the law so that the left’s socialist agenda can be maintained. As I’ve previously mentioned, the administration is going to slow walk compliance by forcing these judges to explain why the administration can just violate the law to meet their judgements.

***
The number of unions and trade associations calling for Senate Democrats to pass a “clean” continuing resolution – one identical to the one they voted for that expired on October 1, has been swelling.
Among them:

- Allied Federal Workers Union
- International Brotherhood of Teamsters
- National Retail Federation
- U.S. Chamber of Congress
- U.S. Travel Association
- American Hotel & Lodging Association
- Associated General Contractors of America
- Association of Equipment Manufacturers
- Business Roundtable
- Financial Services Forum
- National Association of Wholesale-Distributors
- National Electrical Manufacturers Association
- Allied Pilots Association
- Coalition of Airline Pilots Association
- NetJet Association of Shared Aircraft Pilots
- Southwest Airlines Pilots Association
- American Bankers Association
- National Association of Home Builders
- National Association of Manufacturers
- National Association of Realtors
- Airlines for America
- Information Technology Industry Council

https://newsbusters.org/blogs/cnsnews/craig-bannister/2025/10/31/list-democrat-strongholds-calling-party-end-shutdown-grows

OBSERVATION - My question is will these organization go the next step and pull funding from the democrats?

***
The Obama-nominated chief judge of the United States District Court for D.C. now faces impeachment articles that Rep. Brandon Gill (R-Tex.) filed, thanks to explosive revelations surrounding Operation Arctic Frost—a coordinated effort that saw 197 subpoenas unleashed against Republicans in Congress and citizens during the Biden administration.

Previous impeachment efforts stalled in Congress, but the landscape has shifted. There’s genuine possibility that accountability—real accountability—could finally arrive for a judge who’s weaponized his position against political opponents rather than administering justice fairly. Make no mistake about it, momentum for impeachment is growing, and according to Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.), articles of impeachment are being filed.

https://pjmedia.com/matt-margolis/2025/11/01/rogue-judge-boasberg-may-finally-be-impeached-n4945495

OBSERVATION - I hope this one gains traction among the generally spineless republican house. His key position in Operation Arctic Frost should be the final straw. We’re waiting to see.

***
The White House has tightened press access after reports that some journalists tried eavesdropping near Karoline Leavitt’s office during Cabinet talks, citing “security and privacy concerns.”

OBSERVATION - Of course, the MSM urinalists are whining and complaining over this ‘restriction’ to their 1st amendment ‘rights’. Sorry, unauthorized access to sensitive or classified material or discussion is illegal and attempts to secretly collect same is espionage.

Japan –

Russia just filed a formal protest after Japan ran war games near the Kuril Islands, which both countries claim like a decades-long breakup fight.

Moscow says the drills were “provocative” and warned they might take “compensatory measures” to protect their turf.

They’re especially salty about a U.S. missile system deployed to Japan since last year.

https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/1984442770397020165

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 40-50 degree range with rain and rain showers first part of the week.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

On the night of November 2, Russia launched 79 attack drones and two Iskander-M ballistic missiles at Ukraine. Around 50 of the drones were Shaheds. Ukrainian air defenses shot down or jammed 67 drones. One missile and 12 drones hit targets at six locations, with debris falling in two others.

Russian losses per 02/11/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+940 men
+4 ACVs
+25 artillery

Ukrainian hit the oil terminal in the Russian Black Sea Port of Tuapse overnight. The facility, used to export Russian oil products, is ablaze. Two tankers loading Russian oil, were also set ablaze.

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Pokrovsk update: There are hard fights inside Pokrovsk center. Russians are trying to advance but the AFU has also gained some advantage at places. Meanwhile Russians try to advance northwest of Pokrovsk. Several groups were repelled.

Ukrainian forces have improved their tactical position in several blocks of Pokrovsk, according to the 7th Army Corps. Over the past week, 85 Russian troops were eliminated in the city. A successful non-parachute airborne landing was carried out, involving air defense, electronic warfare, and drone units.

Analysis and Future Operations —

All eyes continue to be focused on Pokrovsk as all indicators show the battle there continues to be intense. The mixture of forces have no real defined front line, adding to the confusion. Fog of war and OPSEC cover the rest.

From the reports and analysis I’ve looked at, Ukraine may have been successful at blunting the initial attack but lost a fair amount of ground in the process. Russia continues to work to encircle the town/area, but are receiving high casualties in the effort. Another factor seems to be that Russia may be running out of reserves to throw into the fight. Although the capture of this town has been high priority for Russia for over a year, they’ve gotten pretty well chewed up in the process.

FPV drones from both sides have turned the area into a very lethal environment.

Ukraine continues to chip away at Russia’s oil operations, nailing a significant port facilities overnight. Repairing the damage is one of Russia’s highest priorities, but the levels of damage in over the past few months have been higher than in the past, stressing both Russian budget and industrial capabilities to repair them.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Israel continues to reduce Hamas presence within the “Yellow” zone.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) published footage from October 31, captured by a U.S. Air Force MQ-9 “Reaper” Surveillance Drone operating over the Gaza Strip as part of the American-led Civil-Military Coordination Center (CMCC), showing militants, likely members of Hamas, attacking and looting an aid truck traveling as part of a humanitarian convoy delivering needed assistance from international partners to Palestinians in Khan Yunis.

***
RUMINT. There are growing accusations in southern Gaza that the Hamas leadership has abandoned its fighters in the southern brigades.
There are reportedly hundreds of fighters trapped underground in Israeli controlled areas behind the Trump “yellow line”, mainly in the Tel al Sultan, Shabboura, and eastern Khan Younis regions.
The families of these fighters,many of whose are in camps in the Muwassi area, have received desperate calls from their trapped sons claiming they were abandoned by the leadership and are voicing outrage toward the Hamas movement leadership for failing to assist them and effectively cutting their hope for survival.

OBSERVATION - I would not be surprised if this report is largely true. With no more hostages, and the green light given to Israel to clean up Hamas forces within its “Yellow” zone, means a short life expectancy for Hamas forces. See below

***
Twelve airstrikes targeted an underground tunnel east of Khan Yunis, Gaza.
Multiple terrorists and weapons were inside.
The area had remained untouched until a few weeks ago due to the presence of live hostages.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Israel has rejected plans to send Turkish forces to Gaza, despite U.S. pressure for a compromise. Washington is now weighing options like an unarmed mission or Turkish participation in rebuilding efforts. Turkey’s President has repeatedly said he will conquer Israel’s capital and Israel will cease to exist.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Israel will continue for the next weeks to clean out Hamas elements trapped within the Yellow Zone. Trapped and encircled, they are running out of supplies and time. And Israel is no longer hamstrung in striking the identified underground facilities.

Hamas continues to fail to return hostage remains.

The international coalition that is suppose to be compelling Hamas to disarm is failing miserably to do so. Thus I expect to see continued precise Israeli targeting of Hamas outside the ‘yellow zone’ should there be any potential threat to IDF elements.

Things continue to heat up against Hezbollah. I suspect that Israel will continue to let Lebanon try to uphold their end of the deal while selectively targeting Hezbollah leadership and sites to keep the pressure on. I think that after the first of the year, Israel may initiate ground action again.

Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Al Jazeera that Tehran has “no intention” of holding talks with the United States and “cannot halt uranium enrichment.” He said Washington’s proposals were “unacceptable and impossible,” and warned Israel of “severe consequences” if it carries out any future attacks.

This threat follows a report that the US was ready to resume discussions with Iran over its nuclear program. Iran talked big like this before the 12 day war, and we all see what that got them.

Lebanon -

U.S. Envoy Tom Barrack painted a grim picture of Lebanon’s collapse, contrasting the country’s institutions with Hezbollah’s growing dominance.

“There’s no central bank. The banking system is bust. There’s no electricity, people rely on private generators. For water and education, you need private providers. So what’s the state? The state is Hezbollah,” Barrack said.

He continued, “In the south, Hezbollah provides water, education. It has 40,000 soldiers; the LAF has 60,000. But Hezbollah soldiers make $2,200 a month, LAF soldiers $275. Hezbollah has 15–20,000 rockets and missiles; LAF soldiers have old jeeps and AK-47s. What’s happening here?”

https://x.com/osint613/status/1984681906693394493?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - Now this is after the US has funneled millions in aid to Lebanon to correct this deficiency

Syria -

Envoy Tom Barrack made an interesting revelation: Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa will visit Washington on November 10 and will meet with President Trump. This will be the first ever visit of a Syrian president to the White House.

Barrack also noted that a fifth round of direct negotiations between Israel and Syria, mediated by the US, is expected to take place after al-Sharaa’s visit to Washington, with the goal of trying to reach a security agreement on the border between the countries by the end of the year.

Nigeria – Threat Level - ADVISORY Nov 2, 2025

Added to the watch list due to moslems murdering Christian and orders to prepare to attack them by Pres Trump.

***
President Donald Trump on Saturday said he’s ordered the Pentagon to begin planning for potential military action in Nigeria as he stepped up his criticism that the government is failing to rein in the persecution of Christians in the West African country.

“If the Nigerian Government continues to allow the killing of Christians, the U.S.A. will immediately stop all aid and assistance to Nigeria, and may very well go into that now disgraced country, ‘guns-a-blazing,’ to completely wipe out the Islamic Terrorists who are committing these horrible atrocities,” Trump posted on social media.

“I am hereby instructing our Department of War to prepare for possible action. If we attack, it will be fast, vicious, and sweet, just like the terrorist thugs attack our CHERISHED Christians!”

The warning of possible military action came after Nigeria’s President Bola Ahmed Tinubu earlier Saturday pushed back after Trump announced a day earlier that he was designating the West African country “a country of particular concern” for allegedly failing to rein in the persecution of Christians.

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/nigeria-christian-genocide-trump/2025/11/01/id/1232849/

OBSERVATION -
I don’t expect we will see the 82nd Airborne deployed to Nigeria, but a pause in foreign aid payments could well be in the offing. This will also be a challenge as the terrorists here are the Boko Haram/ISIS in Nigeria.
The US has special forces in the region helping with anti ISIS operations that could assist in coordination of actions, but are too few to actually commence ground operations. Developing.

Globalism / Great Reset –

The United States will not send any ministers or other high-ranking representatives to the COP30 climate summit in Brazil later in November, the White House confirms to The Guardian.

It underscores the skeptical stance of President Donald Trump’s administration towards measures to stop global warming.

“President Trump will not jeopardize our country’s economic and national security to pursue vague climate goals that kill other countries,” White House spokesman Taylor Rogers said in a statement to The Guardian.

Rogers emphasizes that Trump’s energy policy is about “common sense” with a focus on “liquid gold” (oil), energy infrastructure, and bringing down costs for households and businesses.

COP30 begins on November 10 in Belém, Brazil, and runs until November 21.

https://swedenherald.com/article/no-american-ministers-at-climate-meeting

OBSERVATION - These COPs are nothing but money grabs and attempts to freeze the population to death in the dark.

Trump’s election and economic realities have hit the COP really hard as countries, especially European ones, are finding it impossible to meet goals and not burn their economies to the ground.

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

DATES TO NOTE -
.
CRITICAL DATE - Nov 1, 2025, EBT and SNAP benefits are gone due to govt shutdown.

Nov 5 - Revolutionary Communists to “flood” Washington, D.C. protests

MASS BLACKOUT - Nov 26 - Dec 2. Economic boycott.

22 November rally in Washington, D.C by “Removal Coalition”

NOTE - Additional protests being announced for DC, assessing the potential for violence or other direct action.

***
Seems to have been a relatively quiet weekend in spite of the looming SNAP/EBT chaos.

***
A Portland far-left Trantifa group named “Degenerates Against Fascism” is asking for cash donations as it announces a direct action against @ICEgov on Nov. 9 at 2 p.m. They’re meeting at a nearby park and then marching to the building.

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1985111137126322554?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - The Trans and fuzzy freak show coming to an ICE near you.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

New tests of the U.S. nuclear weapons system ordered up by President Donald Trump will not include nuclear explosions, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Sunday.

It was the first clarity from the Trump administration since the president took to social media last week to say he had “instructed the Department of War to start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis.”

“I think the tests we’re talking about right now are system tests,” Wright said in an interview on Fox News’ “Sunday Briefing.” “These are not nuclear explosions. These are what we call noncritical explosions.”

https://www.newsmax.com/us/trump-nuclear-weapons-testing-explosions/2025/11/02/id/1232910/

OBSERVATION - As I noted, non-critical explosions are tests of the warhead minus the nuclear material, to ensure that these triggers are functioning at the designed and necessary level to trigger a nuclear explosion should the nuclear material be present.

***
Continued military buildup in the Caribbean region - See Venezuela below

POLITICAL FRONT –

The Trump administration is waiting to hear from the courts on funding food stamp benefits for low-income Americans during the ongoing government shutdown, and payments could restart by Nov. 5 per a court order, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

Bessent was asked by CNN’s “State of the Union” on Nov. 2 about the recent federal court ruling in Rhode Island that ordered the Trump administration to make full Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) food aid benefit payments available by Nov. 3 or partial payments by Nov. 5.

When asked whether payments could resume by Nov. 5, he said they “could be.”

“[President Donald Trump] needs to hear from the courts how this is going to be done,” Bessent said.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/food-stamp-payments-could-restart-by-wednesday-as-ordered-by-judge-bessent-5938664?utm_source=IB&src_src=IB&utm_campaign=mb-2025-11-03&src_cmp=mb-2025-11-03&utm_medium=EmailMk&autoemail= href=”mailto:vwbrown2015@att.net”>vwbrown2015@att.net&autoRWsuccess=1

OBSERVATION - Back to the courts to require the judges to clarify how the administration is suppose to break the law in order to meet the judicial demand to continue funding. Even though there is a category for emergency fund, IIRC, the law is very specific in stating that there must be an apparition in place - ie. a CR of passed budget. Technically, refusal to pass the CR results in no appropriations - hence those ‘funds’ cannot be used. A second point I keep hearing is that this fund is primarily for natural disaster response, which the current shut down is not.

If the DoJ attorneys do their job, they could get these judges tied up in knots over how they justify breaking the law - which in other instances they would have slammed the administration for.

***
Additional rumors that democrats are now waiting until after the Tuesday elections in some areas - key ones being mayor of NYC and governorship in NJ and Virginia, before bailing on the continued filibuster of the CR. I guess they don’t want to anger their rabid left wing and keep them from voting.

TRUMP Watch –

President Trump just CLAPPED BACK at 60 Minutes after they asked if prosecuting Comey and Bolton is “political retribution”

“You know what? You know who got indicted? The man you’re looking at! I got indicted and I was INNOCENT! And here I am because I was able to beat all of the nonsense that was thrown at me.”

OBSERVATION - 60 Minutes must be a glutton for punishment.

Illegal Immigration –

A group of illegals occupying Chicago apartment buildings have formed a “union” and are refusing to pay rent, citing ICE raids and fear of working outside the house for their inability to pay the hikes under the new landlord.

OBSERVATION - Well, shut off power and gas, see how well the works for them.

***
ICE to bring on 10,000 new agents

OBSERVATION - IIRC, some 150K have applied for ICE jobs.

China -

The USS Nimitz, a cruiser, and four destroyers have entered the South China Sea near the disputed Scarborough Shoal, possibly the largest U.S. deployment there in over 25 years, following Secretary of War Pete Hegseth’s pledge to counter Chinese gray-zone tactics.

OBSERVATION - US has become increasingly aggressive in its presence and actions in the region. See also Philippines below.

Phillipines –

American and Philippine defense secretaries unveiled a task force designed to deter Chinese coercion in the South China Sea and enhance alliance defense cooperation.

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Philippine Secretary of National Defense Gilbert Teodoro announced “Task Force Philippines” on Friday at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ Defense Ministers Meeting Plus in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

“We’re publicly announcing the Task Force Philippines, here with you today, which will be another step in our cooperation. Increasing interoperability, exercising and preparedness for contingencies―so that we can decisively respond to crisis or aggression and reestablish deterrence in the South China Sea,” Hegseth said.

During his joint presser with Teodoro, Hegseth noted American and Philippine attention to Scarborough Shoal, which has become a flashpoint for aggressive exchanges between Philippine and Chinese forces.

https://news.usni.org/2025/10/31/u-s-unveils-philippine-task-force-to-deter-chinese-coercion

OBSERVATION - I’ve said many times that I believe the first actual shots in a war with China will be fired in the S China Sea and associated with aggression in the Scharborough Shoals area, and not Taiwan.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

NUCLEAR THREATS –

Russia revealed the launching of a new nuclear submarine designed to be able to carry the Posidion nuclear “tsunami” weapon. It was suppose to have been completed several years ago, but the Ukraine war, sanctions and construction issues intervened.

Quite honestly, it would be almost scary to be stationed on such a beast given the short cuts Russia has had to take over the years.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 30-40 degree range, mostly cloudy with widely scattered showers

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight, Russia launched an aerial attack: 3 Kinzhal missiles, 4 Iskander-Ms, 5 S-300/S-400s, and 138 drones, around 80 of them Shaheds. Ukraine’s air defense shot down or jammed 116 targets, including 1 Kinzhal and 115 drones. Missile and drone strikes hit 11 locations.

Fires burn and explosions were seen emitting from the Saratov Oil Refinery in the Saratov Oblast, one of the largest and oldest oil refinery facilities in Russia, following a drone attack overnight against the refinery and other infrastructure sites by Ukraine.

A fuel depot in temporarily occupied Shakhtarsk, Donetsk region, has been reported hit. Lots of explosions are heard.

Russian losses per 03/11/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1160 men
+5 tanks
+6 ACVs
+45 artillery

Analysis and Future Operations —

OSINT analysis continues to indicate that the fight at Pokrovsk continues to be fierce. OPSEC and fog of war make it hard to go beyond that. Both sides are reportedly taking ground. Direct pressure on Pokrovsk appears to be coming from the south where Russian forces have established a hold on that part of the town. Ukraine defenses appear to be holding the railroad line that passes thru the southern third of the city, preventing the main Russian troop concentrations from linking up with infiltration units.

For the time, Ukraine’s reinforced defenses appear to be reforming to a degree. Still a lot of heavy fighting as putin is increasingly desperate to come up with a victory of some sort to sustain his PR campaign in Russia.

Europe / NATO General –

Unknown drones have been spotted in Belgium conducting surveillance on F-16s and ammunition stockpiles, according to Belgian Defense Minister Theo Francken. He hinted that Russia is likely behind the airspace violations, suggesting the drones were gathering strategic intelligence.

https://x.com/noelreports/status/1985097300062912854?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Negotiations regarding trapped Hamas elements within the Israeli “Yellow” zone.

- Bodies of three hostages repatriated overnight.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Netanyahu’s office confirms identification of the bodies of the three hostages handed over by Hamas
8 bodies remain

***
Tomorrow, the Knesset’s National Security Committee holds a first reading on a bill to impose a mandatory death sentence for terrorists convicted of murder motivated by nationalist or racist reasons.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

FOLLOW UP -
Roughly 200 Hamas operatives are trapped inside tunnels beneath Rafah and Khan Younis, beyond the yellow line, including in an area where IDF troops were attacked in recent days. Negotiations are underway with mediators to secure their release, Hamas sources tell Al-Arabiya.

Unconfirmed reports that Israel will allow Hamas fighters to cross the Yellow Line into Hamas-controlled parts of Gaza, but without weapons, according to Israeli media

Israel Finance Minister, Bezalel Smotrich:

“For several months now, the IDF has been surrounding and pursuing Hamas terrorists hiding in a ‘pocket’ in the Rafah area — terrorists who just in recent days killed three of our heroic soldiers. Allowing them to leave safely right before our troops are about to capture or

The Office of the Minister of National Security Itamar Ben Gvir: Minister Ben Gvir has appealed to the Prime Minister with a demand to eliminate or imprison all 200 terrorists who are trapped on Israel’s side of the Green Line.

“This is an opportunity to destroy or arrest - not to release them under ridiculous conditions”

OBSERVATION - Israel seem to be getting pressure from the US to effect a ‘release’, but the hard line is that they carry no weapons out. That may be a bridge these terrorist will refuse to cross. If that is the case, Israel has all the more reason to send them to the 72 virgins.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Member of the Houthi Political Office in Yemen, Muhammad al-Bukhaiti, reacting to Netanyahu’s threats yesterday: “We will respond to any Israeli aggression immediately and with force. We prefer a direct confrontation with the entity because the cost of that is less than internal wars and it strengthens the unity of the nation.”

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

A senior Egyptian official told Al-Akhbar that Cairo has warned Washington it won’t tolerate Israel’s continued demands without honoring its commitments. He added that Egypt postponed the Gaza reconstruction conference due to unclear Israeli and U.S. positions, noting, “Israel has delivered far less than what was agreed.”

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

These trapped Hamas forces should either be eliminated or captured and prisoned. To allow them to leave is projecting weakness to Hamas who will only use it to become more resistant to following the ceasefire agreement.

Hamas would not let the reverse happen, you can bet you latte on that.

Israel’s increasing aggressive posture towards Hezbollah seems to be pushing Lebanon towards reining in Hezbollah, but not quickly enough. See Lebanon below.

Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said today in an interview with Qatar’s Al Jazeera channel:

“We place no trust whatsoever in the statements coming from the Israeli regime claiming it does not seek war. We always assume the possibility of deception. Our friends in Russia conveyed this message to us, but even they expressed doubts about the sincerity of Netanyahu’s words.

We heard the message, yet our preparations remain strong — in fact, they have advanced and intensified since then. The uranium enriched to 60% remains buried beneath the rubble, but it has not been moved. It is still unclear how much of the 400 kilograms remains intact, as access to the site is currently impossible.

Significant damage was inflicted on buildings and equipment, but our technology and determination were not destroyed — on the contrary, they have only grown stronger since the war.”

OBSERVATION - More tough talk, but an interesting revelation that seems to confirm other analysis. That is the Iranian stockpile of 60% enriched uranium is buried and inaccessible for processing to the weapons grade 90% level any time soon.

Iraq -

Iraq will hold parliamentary elections on November 11, with analysts saying Iran will be watching closely as it hopes to retain influence over its neighbour after losing regional leverage during the Gaza war.

OBSERVATION - Iran has maintained a dominating presence in Iraq, fielding multiple militias that involved themselves in attacking Israel. Remember - the appearance of power is mega in arab politics, so will Iran’s drumming during the 12 Day war resulted in loss of stature and influence? My guess is yes, especially in the standing down of many of these Iranian-backed militias in the face of Israeli threats.

Lebanon -

Lebanese media - Unconfirmed : The Israeli army is advancing into the Kroum al-Marah area on the outskirts of the town of Mays al-Jabal in the south of the country.

***
Al-Hadath reports that the Israeli strike in al-Sharqiya, southern Lebanon, targeted senior Hezbollah commander Mohammad Ali Hadid. The vehicle destroyed in the attack was reportedly registered to a foreign national.

OVERALL OBSERVATIONS - Israel is putting the screws to the Lebanese govt to get their part of the ceasefire agreement accomplished before Hezbollah is able to rebuild enough to counter the govt forces. US and others continue to encourage and try to pressure Israel to hold off, and for now it seems that Israel is doing so with the exception of some recons in force to test Hezbollah and Lebanese army responses.

Syria -

Reports that key elements of the new Syrian military and intelligence services have been attempting to restore relations with Iran to establish military coordination. The objective is to create independent leverage against the West and Israel as negotiations stall.

OBSERVATION - There are likely holdovers in the intelligence services that benefitted from Iran and would like to see that gravy train resumed. Big question is just how resistant Turkey will be of the move.

This could trigger down the road a larger Israeli response should such a ‘coordination’ result in the shipment of arms and material to the Hezbollah.

Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025

The US sends another missile-launching ship, the USS Gettysburg, to the Caribbean amid warnings of upcoming attacks on Venezuela

The U.S. is revamping its former Roosevelt Roads Naval Station in Puerto Rico, adding runway upgrades, aircraft facilities, and ammunition storage. Recent F-35 deployments and nearby naval activity point to a growing military presence about 500 miles from Venezuela. Source: Reuters

OBSERVATION - Trump has said he is not at this time looking at any attacks on ground based narco-terror sites. That doesn’t mean that the military isn’t preparing for the action.

One other thing to keep in mind about this build up and that is a US Monroe doctrine resurgence to counter Russian, Chinese and Iranian actions in the region. Russia has threatened to place nuclear capable missiles in Cuba and Venezuela. China has invested considerable money to influence economies as well as establish large intel facilities in Cuba. Iran at the moment is following on their coattails - an enemy of my enemy is my friend.

Election day in parts of the country. Most critical are NYC mayoral race, and the Virginia / New Jersey governor races.

Globalism / Great Reset –

EU environment ministers have yet to reach agreement on a 2040 target for cutting carbon emissions following a first round of interventions at their emergency meeting in Brussels this morning.
Diplomats have said the Danish presidency of the EU is still short of securing the weighted majority of member states needed to reach agreement on a text that will potentially require a 90% reduction in carbon emissions over 1990 levels by 2040.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2025/1104/1541994-eu-emissions-targets/

OBSERVATION - The globalist juggernaut continues to be anchored by the european bureaucrats pushing an agenda guaranteed to crash the economies of those nations and even push their development back a hundred years or more.

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

DATES TO NOTE -
.
CRITICAL DATE - Nov 1, 2025, EBT and SNAP benefits are gone due to govt shutdown.

Nov 5 - Revolutionary Communists to “flood” Washington, D.C. protests

MASS BLACKOUT - Nov 26 - Dec 2. Economic boycott.

22 November rally in Washington, D.C by “Removal Coalition”

NOTE - Additional protests being announced for DC, assessing the potential for violence or other direct action.

***
(FO) According to a new poll by Politico and Public First, 24% of Americans said there are some instances where political violence is justified.
More than one-third of people under 45 years old polled agreed that political violence is justified.
According to the poll, 55% of Americans across demographic lines said they expect political violence in the U.S. to increase. 51% of Trump voters and 53% of Kamala Harris voters said they expect a political candidate to be assassinated within the next five years.
“We’re not on the brink of [political violence], we’re firmly in the grip of it,” and the U.S. is in an era of “violent populism,” University of Chicago Professor Robert Pape said.

OBSERVATION - This poll follows others showing that the left is becoming increasingly violence oriented and now being conditioned (“normalized”) into responding in violence.

***
A district judge has prohibited call up of Oregon NG to protect the Portland ICE facility. It will be appealed.

***
EBT/SNAP riots still simmering but on hold except for a few isolated incidents of increased shoplifting. There have also been a few scattered poster protests supporting EBT as well, though poorly manned.

Terrorism - Threat Level - ADVISORY as of OCT 26, 2025
Downgraded due to declining global threats and middle east war

***
Suspects identified in alleged Dearborn, Michigan, terror plot; Mohmed Ali and Majed Mahmoud accused of stockpiling weapons for ISIS-inspired attack, according to FBI affidavit

OBSERVATION - Yep, moslems. There are others under investigation in this as well.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) was spotted on maritime tracking minutes ago in the Alboran Sea, roughly 200 miles from the Strait of Gibraltar, with the ship expected to cross into the Atlantic sometime in the next 24-48 hours, beginning its journey — alongside the rest of Carrier Strike Group Twelve (CSG-12) — towards the Caribbean Sea.

***
The USS George H. W. Bush (CVN-77) departed Naval Station Norfolk in Virginia earlier today, for a brief underway period off the East Coast, as preparations continue for her upcoming deployment to Europe and the Middle East, which is currently scheduled for early 2026. The Bush completed her Composite Training Unit Exercise or COMPTUEX last month, which serves as a kind of “dress rehearsal” prior to the deployment of a Carrier Strike Group.

OBSERVATION - There is no US carrier group in CENTCOM area at present.

POLITICAL FRONT –

U.S. Department of Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said that her agency has found massive fraud in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. It must be reformed, she added. Rollins said that the program gives food benefits to illegal aliens, and others abuse the system meant to feed hungry, low-income families.

“The Democrat Party has turned its back on working Americans and built its entire strategy around protecting illegal aliens. They know if the handouts stop, those illegals will go back home, and Democrats will lose 20+ seats after the next census,” Rollins said. “There’s a new sheriff in town. @POTUS will not tolerate waste, fraud, or abuse while hardworking Americans go hungry.”

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/scott-mcclallen/2025/11/02/usda-secretary-brooke-rollins-says-there-is-n2665828

OBSERVATION - The speed at which these changes will happen may have been accelerated with the current SNAP/EBT crisis. Proof of citizenship would be one key aspect. This is not going to eventually end well for democrats.

RELATED - Trump has announced that the administration will scrap together enough money to fund SNAP/EBT at about 50% levels - that would be about 4 billion dollars - for November. No word yet if that is deemed acceptably by the royal district judges.

***
Key elections in NYC, Virginia and NJ - all deep blue regions - will be spun wildly to say Trump’s support is falling apart. Typical politician MO for both sides. Will the growing undercurrent against the marxist moslem carry the day in NYC? Will Virginia and NJ come to their senses and go with a republican governor? Those races are close.

In Kalifornia, the move to pass Prop 50 presses on and I’ll bet my bars there will a lot of questionable voting issues. However, gruesome’s effort to swing more democrat seats in the house is rapidly being swamped by redistricting across the country as well as the looming possibility of removing the counting of illegals to determine population for seat distribution - causing Kalifornia to lose seats when it is all said and done.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 30-40 degree range, mostly cloudy with widely scattered showers

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight, Russia launched one Iskander-M, six S-300s, and 130 attack drones, including around 80 Shaheds, from multiple directions. As of 09:00, air defenses downed or jammed 92 drones across northern, southern, and eastern regions.

A Ukraine drone attack hit the 500 kV Frolovskaya substation in Russia’s Volgograd region. This high-voltage facility is a key node in the regional power grid.

Social media posts show thick black smoke rises and several fires seen burning following a number of Ukrainian drone strikes overnight against the Sterlitamak Petrochemical Plant in the Republic of Bashkortostan, Southern Russia, which is over 700 miles from Ukraine.
The Sterlitamak Plant produces synthetic rubbers, aviation fuel additives, and phenolic antioxidants that feed directly into Russia’s industrial and defense manufacturing base. Its rubbers are essential for tires, seals, and components used in military vehicles.

Overnight, a Ukraine drone strike hit the Lukoil refinery in Kstovo, Nizhny Novgorod, one of Russia’s five largest, processing 340,000 barrels per day. Located 800 km from Ukraine, the facility had already been targeted in previous attacks.

Russian losses per 04/11/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+840 men
+5 tanks
+1 ACV
+42 artillery
+1 MLRS

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Ukrainian forces are advancing near Dobropillia to divert Russian attention from Pokrovsk, according to General Syrskyi. Pressure is mounting on the Dobropillia salient, with ongoing clearing ops forcing Russians to stretch its forces and preventing them from focusing fully on the Pokrovsk area.

Rumint. Another Russian failed river crossing, with multiple armored vehicles lost.

***
ISW. Russian forces continue to advance in the Pokrovsk direction and appear to be operating with increasing comfort within Pokrovsk itself.

Ukrainian forces continue defensive efforts and counterattacks in the Pokrovsk direction.

Ukrainian forces have liberated a significant portion of the Russian penetration in the Dobropillya direction on the eastern flank of the Pokrovsk effort.

Ukrainian efforts to cut off the Russian salient east of Dobropillya are likely generating tactical effects on Russian efforts to encircle the Ukrainian pocket near Pokrovsk.

https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1985538266926354630?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

Analysis and Future Operations —

The dynamics of the fight for Pokrovsk are evolving. Ukraine is taking advantage of tactical gains north of the city to press towards cutting off the Russian salient in that area. As noted, this is forcing Russia to divert forces to meet this challenge. Over the past couple months Ukrainian forces cut off the Russian salient that developed northwest of the area and those forces are continuing the attack.

Fighting in Pokrovsk proper is a jigsaw puzzle of forces. Russia has been throwing a lot of its reserves into the fight over the past few months and I wonder if they have very many more they can pull off the bench without jeopardizing other sectors of the front.

Tactical maneuvering may eventually be the key here. So far, Russia has taken months to develop this encirclement. Ukraine’s counter attack in the north only weeks.

Notice this tidbit in the rapidly developing tactical situation. Ukraine and now to a lesser extent Russia, are using fish nets to protect routes and equipment. Lighter and just as effective as metal mesh/fencing, these fish nets are creating protected roads for resupply. In Ukraine’s case, they have been able to disarm and repurpose snagged Russian FPV drones back against Russian forces now.

In the course of this war we saw the rise of the Baktar missile carrying drones, then civilian drones modified to carry grenades and mortar rounds to highly complex FPV now using fiber optics. Ukraine is also rolling out AI powered anti drone drones to combat the mobs of Shahed and related drones, at a very cheap price compared to air defense missiles.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Israeli govt soundly rejecting calls to permit trapped Hamas elements free passage out of the “Yellow Zone”.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

The U.S. sent UN Security Council members a draft resolution on Monday for the establishment of an international force in Gaza for a duration of at least two years, according to a copy of the draft

***
Israel’s position firmly rejects permitting terrorists to transit from Khan Younis and Rafah deep in Israeli-held territory to Hamas areas. In contacts held in recent days, effectively since the IDF force attack and death of Master Sgt. Yona Efraim Feldbaum last week in Rafah, Hamas demanded passage of several dozen terrorists, between 100 and 200, back to its ranks.

These terrorists became trapped in tunnels in the two southern cities. They are surrounded but attempt periodically to attack IDF soldiers. Since the ceasefire started, they have succeeded in killing three soldiers and wounding others. The IDF has eliminated many attackers, but many others remain in the tunnels. At the beginning of contacts, Hamas demanded passage in its own vehicles that would enter IDF territory and be escorted by the Red Cross to prevent harm. Subsequently, it agreed they would be transferred in Red Cross vehicles but demanded they keep their weapons.

https://www.israelhayom.com/2025/11/03/hamas-terrorists-demand-safe-passage-khan-younis-rafah-ceasefire/

Netanyahu refuses the safe passage of 200 Hamas terrorists from tunnels underneath the IDF-controlled area to the one controlled by Hamas

OBSERVATION - Surrender or die.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine terrorist organization:
“The approval of the death penalty law in the National Security Committee in the Knesset is a war crime.
The approval of the law will not pass without a Palestinian response.
Harming our prisoners will be met with escalation on all fronts.”

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Biggest issue continues to be the saga of the trapped Hamas elements. These same elements have attacked and recently killed some Israeli soldiers, so the calls for their release are falling of deaf ears. Surrender or die is the proper stance and so far Netanyahu appears to be holding that approach. A second factor is the rumor that some of these bunkers may hold remains of Israeli hostages, holding Israel back a bit. Trapped or not, Hamas has the obligation to turn those bodies over if they they have them. THEN, their final disposition can be discussed.

Other Gaza news is the continuing soap opera about who will administer the govt of the area and who will participate in any kind of peacekeeping force. Big spoiler, Hamas still thinks it will be the main player and as long as the “peace partners” all them to remain armed and in place, this will be the case going forward.

Pressure continues to grow on Lebanon and getting Hezbollah rooted out. I think Lebanese forces lost their chance and that Hezbollah had enough remaining forces and weapons to reconstitute a resistance to the army.

Though Israel could strike into Lebanon in a greater way at any time, I still see the window opening after the first of the year as Lebanon has until then to uphold their part of the ceasefire.

Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025

A little old, but Iran has been receiving tons of components for solid rocket fuel over the past months from China. I don’t know if they’ve been able to replace the hardware necessary to mix and form these components for engines though.

Nigeria – Threat Level - ADVISORY Nov 2, 2025

Added to the watch list due to threats against moslems who’ve murdering Christian by Pres Trump.

***
The State Department on Monday officially updated its designation for Nigeria as a “Country of Particular Concern” for its alleged severe violations of religious freedom and persecution of Christians.

Globalism / Great Reset –

President Trump’s administration stood firm against the United Nations’ attempt to impose a worldwide carbon tax through the International Maritime Organization’s laughable “net zero framework.” The message couldn’t be clearer: America’s energy policy is made in Washington—not dictated by unelected global bureaucrats.

But while the global carbon tax was stopped abroad, the same idea is being smuggled in here at home—through the courts. Environmental activists and their trial lawyer allies are attempting to do in the U.S. what the U.N. could not: force a carbon tax on working families.

As the Supreme Court weighs an appeal in Boulder’s climate case, a key attorney behind the lawsuit made a shocking admission about the true aims of the lawsuit.

David Bookbinder, who served for years as part of the legal team representing the Colorado municipalities – and who still remains “privy to the communications and deliberations of the legal team” today – acknowledged during a recent Federalist Society panel that these climate cases aren’t really about “accountability” at all:

“Tort liability is an indirect carbon tax. You sue an oil company, an oil company is liable. The oil company then passes that liability on to the people who are buying its products. In some sense, it is the most efficient way. The people who buy those products are now going to be paying for the cost imposed by those products. … [This is] somewhat of a convoluted way to achieve the goals of a carbon tax.”

The timing of Bookbinder’s comments is striking. His admission comes as the DOJ, 26 states, and now over 100 members of Congress urged the Supreme Court this week to review Boulder’s case, warning that it “upends the constitutional balance” and could “bankrupt the U.S. energy sector” by allowing local courts to dictate national energy policy.

It also fits a larger pattern of candor from Boulder officials themselves. In 2021, a senior city official admitted the lawsuit was meant to drive “fundamental systems-level change,” while another attorney involved with the case told the press in 2020 that one aim was to “raise the price of the products” created by energy companies so they become too expensive to use.

Bookbinder went further, adding that lawsuits like Boulder’s might be the “most efficient way” to implement a carbon tax, a stunning admission that fundamentally contradicts what climate plaintiffs typically plead in court. He then acknowledged what the rest of the campaign only hints at – these costs would inevitably be passed along to consumers, raising fuel prices for everyone else.

This admission aligns neatly with what activists first outlined at the now-infamous 2012 La Jolla strategy session, where lawyers, funders, and academics kickstarted the effort to use courts to force climate policy change. Over a decade later, it seems nothing has changed for the Rockefeller-backed activists pushing these cases.

https://eidclimate.org/attorney-involved-with-boulder-climate-case-admits-suit-is-a-backdoor-carbon-tax-as-scotus-considers-appeal/

OBSERVATION - Globalist minions as the local level across the globe push their agenda on an aggressive scale. Vigilance is necessary on all levels.

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

DATES TO NOTE -
.
Ongoing - EBT and SNAP benefits are gone due to govt shutdown.

Nov 5 - Revolutionary Communists to “flood” Washington, D.C. protests TODAY

MASS BLACKOUT - Nov 26 - Dec 2. Economic boycott.

22 November rally in Washington, D.C by “Removal Coalition”

NOTE - Additional protests being announced for DC, assessing the potential for violence or other direct action.

***
Food banks across the country are reporting increased demand based in part by increased cost of food and now SNAP/EBT loss.

Side note - here in my corner of the Redoubt we are preparing for one of the largest, single day food drives in the region. Concern over EBT/SNAP is triggering early campaigning for food donations, as the local food bank is feeling the increase in applications too.

However, violence and looting are not occurring on a national basis, but on an isolated and on a small scale.

***
Today is the day that communists are suppose to ‘flood’ DC, laying siege to the WH, the Capitol and the USSC. Not much showing up on the radar for these ‘millions’ that are suppose to participate.

Terrorism - Threat Level - ADVISORY as of OCT 26, 2025
Downgraded due to declining global threats and middle east war

***
All flights in and out of Reagan National Airport are currently halted due to a bomb threat on a flight, a source familiar with the situation tells me. The plane is isolated on the east end of the field. Later cleared.

***
2 men arrested in connection with Nov. 1 Harvard Medical School explosion, FBI announced are: Logan David Patterson, 18, and Dominick Frank Cardoza, 20,

The charging documents allege that the suspects ignited a roman candle outside the facility before placing a cherry bomb inside a locker on the fourth floor. The device later detonated, triggering a fire alarm and prompting a response from university and city police.

OBSERVATION - Appears to have been a very stupid prank by a couple low intelligence knuckleheads. The left’s quick grab on the event showing anti-israel support is still concerning as the political background of the two hasn’t been revealed and this may still have a link to leftist anarchy.

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said the Trump administration could shut down U.S. airspace if risks to air travel increase during the ongoing federal government shutdown. Duffy said the administration is not at the point of ordering an airspace shutdown yet, but the ongoing government shutdown is increasing air travel risks.

OBSERVATION - Recent week has seen numerous halts to air traffic due to shortages in ATCs. Remember, democrats have stated that they will not support the CR until planes start falling out of the sky. Flight delays can create havoc over the entire nation given the interrelationship between routes, hubs and carriers.

RELATED - ATC union slamming democrats for continuing the shutdown, threatening airline safety.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78), along with her lone escort USS Bainbridge (DDG-96), passed westbound through the Strait of Gibraltar earlier this morning, bound for the Caribbean Sea. At the time of her crossing, the Ford was making roughly 15kn, with her likely to reach the U.S. Southern Command’s (SOUTHCOM) Area-of-Responsibility by this upcoming Monday, November 10.

The remaining ships of Carrier Strike Group Twelve (CSG-12) and Destroyer Squadron 2 are currently scattered across Europe and the Middle East, with the USS Mitscher (DDG-57) and USS Forrest Sherman (DDG-98) currently operating in the Red Sea, while the USS Mahan (DDG-72) and USS Winston S. Churchill (DDG-81) have been awaiting the arrival of the Ford in Rota, Spain and the Western Mediterranean.

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1985739185475453061?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - I am concerned that the Ford only has one escort at this time. SOUTHCOM should be dispatching some of its destroyer and frigate assets to at least meet up with the Ford in mid Atlantic.

POLITICAL FRONT –

The shutdown is now the longest on record.

***
One month into the federal government shutdown, United, Delta, American and Southwest airlines are each calling on Congress to approve a Republican-backed “clean” funding bill to reopen the government.

***
Bad night for republicans, but that was expected with voting in majority blue areas. As I noted yesterday, MSM and democrats are already touting the results as a referendum on the Trump agenda.

Of course the vote was riddled with all kinds of efforts to disenfranchise voters - primarily directed against republicans. Voting machine ‘breaks downs’, shortages of ballots at red precincts, bomb threats and even SWATTING. Folks, this is just a precursor to the chaos the left is planning for midterms and this was just a dry run for that.

***
The extreme left wing of the democrat party - the socialist democrats - got a win in NYC with Mamdani’s win. He wasted no time in challenging Trump and the rest of America.

Mamdani:

“I’m Muslim. I’m a democratic socialist. And most damning of all, I refuse to apologize for any of this”

Mamdani: So Donald Trump, since I know you’re watching. I have four words for you: Turn the volume up.

Trump : And so it begins

Pro-Trump hackers displayed “Trump is your president,” flashing it during Mamdani’s victory rally.

The political fight in NYC has great potential to bolster Trump as the next big event is the 2026 midterms. Mamdani may well take the little tyrant approach to get his agenda thru - and there is plenty of time for the reaction, mostly negative, to slam NYC.

***
California’s Proposition 50 redistricting vote will pass, according to ABC.
Redistricting will help net the Democrats 5 seats next year in the midterm elections, was a response to redistricting attempts in Republican states.

OBSERVATION - This effort will not swing enough new seats to the democrats to stop the large redistricting efforts of red states. Democrats still stand to potentially lose up to a dozen seats on redistricting alone, in addition to dozens more if the census data removes illegals from the state population counts.

***
SNAP saga continues to play out.

After initially saying he’d work with the court Earlier today, Trump explicitly refused to budge on SNAP until Democrats voted to open the government:

Yesterday, the USDA and Department of Justice told the court they would comply with the Friday order, albeit with insufficient funds for the month’s benefits. It might take a while to create an equitable plan for disbursements, given the limited funds available. The time frame looks pretty similar to an outright refusal:

The $4.65 billion that remains in the contingency fund would cover about half of the benefits for November, according to a declaration from Patrick Penn, the deputy undersecretary for the USDA’s Food Nutrition and Consumer Services.
The DOJ said in another filing it would soon produce a “table” for states to calculate the reduced benefits available for each household, and that it would begin disbursing the funds once that table is produced.

Penn wrote it could take states “anywhere from a few weeks to up to several months” to update their systems to distribute reduced benefits.

In other words, the partial distribution might not take place until after the first of the year, thanks to the necessity of creating entirely different tables to calculate benefits. It’s not an appeal, but the use of bureaucratic inertia accomplishes the same outcome. Nothing will move until Senate Democrats pass the clean CR.

So if I understand the current situation - SNAP cards are not being refilled nor are expected to even receive a partial payment any time soon. Hence Trump is now saying the the program will not see funds in the near future and most likely until the shutdown is over.

Another note - records now coming out that show that the SNAP program nearly quadrupled under biden - much of the increase attributed to the flood of lllegals as well as the thousands his wuhan shutdowns and economic disasters put working americans on the unemployment lines.

Illegal Immigration –

The Illinois state legislature passed SB 2339 last week, which will expand Illinois’s Right to Privacy in the Workplace Act to restrict employers from firing immigrant employees based on identity and work authorization discrepancies. The bill also increases penalties on employers, and gives labor unions the power to sue employers for violating the state law.

OBSERVATION - This runs straight into the federal supremacy clause which requires by law employers to screen for citizenship and not to hire them.

China -

China’s Ambassador reiterated China’s Four Red Lines (the Taiwan question, democracy and human rights, China’s path and system, and China’s development right) as matters to avoid if the two nations want a trade truce. Chinese President Xi declared these to be “guardrails and safety nets for China-U.S. relations” last year.

North/South Korea –

New intelligence from the National Intelligence Service of South Korea indicates that up to 10 000 troops from North Korea are now posted near the Russia‑Ukraine border, with about 5000 of them identified as construction units moved into Russia since September to help rebuild war‑damaged infrastructure.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

Personnel Issues –

Putin has signed a law mandating year-round military conscription in Russia. Starting next year, citizens not in reserve can be called up any time from January 1 to December 31. However, deployments to service units will still occur twice annually.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 30-40 degree range, mostly cloudy with widely scattered showers

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight Russia launched 80 strike drones, - Ukrainian air forces. 61 were taken down.

Ukraine’s GUR confirms it coordinated with Air Force and SOF pilots to strike the oil refinery in Nizhny Novgorod region. Over 50 Ukrainian-made drones, including Bober/Beaver and FP-1 models, were used. The attack hit during repairs on the rectification column, already damaged in earlier strikes.

The 750 kV “Vladimirskaya” substation, one of the most powerful in Russia, has again been successfully targeted. Ukraine has repeatedly struck this key node in Russia’s energy grid, critical for power transmission and stability across the Vladimir region.

Russian losses per 05/11/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+900
+3 tanks
+3 ACVs
+24 artillery systems
+2 AD systems

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

There is no encirclement or blockade in the Pokrovsk-Mirnograd agglomeration at the moment, - the spokesman for the General Staff Kovalev. He also added that none of the garrison units are surrounded. A comprehensive operation to identify and destroy enemy forces in Pokrovsk continues

Analysis and Future Operations —

The fight for Pokrovsk continues to be intense with ground truth smothered by the fog of war and OPSEC, with a heaping dose of propaganda for good measure. I’m assessing Ukraine’s counterattacks on the flank of Russia’s northern pincer. OSINT suggests that Russia’ lines are pretty thin here, with main forces diverted to the south. A good tactic provided Ukraine has the forces to deal with the main fighting, showing a broader understanding of maneuver to nullify a threat versus just brute force/numbers along the actual defensive line.

Russia is increasingly becoming ‘creative’ in trying to increase manpower for the war effort - See Russia above. Casualities, defection and draft dodging are a growing load on the war machine. Inability to pay the inflated bonuses, growing efforts to recruit other friendly countries to supply manpower, etc, continue to point to 2026 becoming a critical year for Russia’s war effort.

Europe / NATO General –

Flights were halted twice yesterday at Brussels Airport in Belgium due to drone sightings, officials said.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Tensions building towards S Lebanon.

- Plans developing for administration of Gaza.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Hamas returned the body of the last American hostage overnight. 7 bodies of hostages still remain in Gaza

***
Prime Minister Netanyahu clarified in closed-door discussions:

“The Hamas terrorists in the tunnels have only two options - either they surrender, or they stay underground. Hamas must return all the bodies of the deceased hostages, exactly as stated in the framework. There will be no deal.”

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

See Iraq below regarding Iranian militias

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

First-draft of U.S. UN resolution for Gaza leaked to Al-Quds Al-Araby.

Key takeaways:

- The draft endorses the Comprehensive Plan to End the Conflict and welcomes Trump’s Oct 13 declaration.
- Proposes a “Peace Council”, an international transitional body to oversee Gaza’s redevelopment and vet the PA’s reforms.
- Authorizes a temporary International Stabilization Force (ISF) in Gaza under unified command, with a mandate to demilitarize, protect civilians, secure humanitarian corridors, and train vetted Palestinian police.
- ISF and civilian presence would be authorized until Dec 31, 2027 (extendable).
- Reconstruction funding to be coordinated via donors and institutions (World Bank, trust fund); aid diversion would carry consequences.

This is a first draft, changes likely before a Security Council vote. Major implications: international control over Gaza’s security and governance, long-term foreign military presence, and tight strings on aid and reconstruction.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

As noted below under Lebanon, pressure is being put on Lebanon to fulfill its requirement to disarm Hezbollah. Hezbollah, realizing it has a short window, has been aggressively trying to rebuild. I’ve been thinking that all out attacks by Israel would wait until the first of the year, but it may happen sooner. By all indicators, Trump will not stand in the way of Israel on this.

Hamas continues to refuse to disarm, so there will soon have to be an accounting to forcibly disarm them. Israel is aggressively clearing out pockets within the “Yellow Zone”. Hamas has become more careful in targeting Israel from within the territory they still hold. Israel hit Gaza City pretty hard last time and Hamas doesn’t likely want a repeat any time soon.

AFA the resolution to govern Gaza post Hamas, well like many UN associated efforts it will unlikely be worth the paper it is printed on. Trump is trying to get other nations to buy into the plan, but the biggest barrier continues to be Hamas. Until they are put down, support will be very weak for this plan.

Iraq -

(FO) Iraqi media has reports of numerous armed groups mobilizing in support of a potential war between Iran and Israel. The Iraqi Defense minister claims War Secretary Hegseth ordered him to prevent the armed groups from interfering in any operations. The Defense Minister further claims that Hegseth said “you know very well how the current administration will respond” to failure.

OBSERVATION - These Iranian backed militias were largely ineffective and hardly contributed anything to attacking Israel. Being able to be resupplied and directed relatively easily from Iran, they may be getting reinforced to replace Hezbollah/Hamas elements as the new direct strike proxy for them. Secondary mission would be to attack US forces and interests within Iraq, something they’ve done on a relatively regular basis over the years.

Lebanon - Threat Level - ADVISORY November 5, 2025
Threat level set separate due to growing threat from Hezbollah ruining the current ceasefire

Israeli drone strike on Burj Rahal town in Tyre district, southern Lebanon. These are pretty much a daily occurrence.

***
During a security briefing convened by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, senior defense officials issued grave warnings that Hezbollah is undergoing a rapid process of rearmament and infrastructure reconstruction in southern Lebanon.

Officials revealed that the terrorist organization is smuggling short-range rockets from Syria and deploying terrorists in villages near the Israeli border.

According to security sources, Hezbollah is actively rebuilding structures damaged in previous strikes and continues to station loyal operatives throughout the area.

Meanwhile, US Middle East envoy Tom Barrack conveyed a stern message to the Lebanese government, warning that if Hezbollah’s deployment near the border is not significantly altered by the end of November, Israel will be entitled to take military action - and the United States would understand such a move.

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/417301

Despite its losses in the war—according to Israeli assessments, it lost more than 80 percent of its pre-war arsenal by November 2024—Hezbollah still possesses a considerable arsenal, Neriah (Col. (ret.) Jacques Neriah, an analyst at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs and a former deputy head for assessment of Israeli Military Intelligence) assessed. “In today’s data, they also say it has something like 30,000 projectiles left, which is not a small amount. Some of these are long-range projectiles and most are short-range rockets,” he said.

He warned that this military buildup is paired with a sophisticated political strategy to seize control of the Lebanese state. “The next mission is to take over the parliament. How? During the time of Michel Aoun, the previous Lebanese president, they passed a law that the Lebanese diaspora abroad will not vote for the 128 parliament members that exist on the various lists, but they will vote for six separate additional seats,” Neriah said.

https://www.prophecynewswatch.com/article.cfm?recent_news_id=9063

***
Reports indicate that the U.S. has given Lebanon a deadline until the end of the month to disarm Hezbollah — or face the consequences of a broad Israeli strike.

OBSERVATION - See assessment under Israel above.

Saudi Arabia –

Reuters reports that the Trump administration is weighing a major arms deal that could see up to 48 F-35 fighter jets sold to Saudi Arabia, worth billions. The plan has reportedly passed an important Pentagon review ahead of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s U.S. visit. If approved, the deal would represent a major policy change and raise questions about Washington’s pledge to preserve Israel’s “qualitative military edge” in the Middle East.

OBSERVATION - SA already has up to date F15s in their fleet. Most of the military is oriented toward threats from Iran, and not so much from Israel. In an F35 scrum with Israel, Israel would hold the overwhelming advantage due to pilot experience in combat.

Syria -

Germany will start deporting Syrian refugees, Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced, saying “the civil war in Syria is over” and there are “absolutely no grounds for asylum in Germany.” Voluntary returns are encouraged, but those with criminal records may face forced deportation. Around 951,000 Syrians currently live in Germany.

Mexico -

Growing unconfirmed reports that the US is preparing to place CIA and Special Ops forces on the ground in Mexico targeting narco-terrorists. Said to be working through issues not to interfere with Mexican sovernity.

Misc of Note –

A solar flare of extraordinary intensity erupted from Active Region 10486 at 19:29 UTC on November 4, 2003, overwhelming every X-ray detector in orbit and leaving scientists temporarily blind to its true scale. Only later would they learn it reached about X45 — the most powerful ever measured in the Space Age. Its radiative power rivaled that of the 1859 Carrington Event, yet most of its debris was ejected harmlessly sideways into space. Had Active Region 10486 faced Earth, researchers estimate the geomagnetic index Dst could have dropped below –850 nanoteslas — enough to trigger a planetary-scale power-grid collapse.

One of the enduring mysteries of solar physics is why some of the most violent eruptions occur not at the height of a solar cycle but as it begins to wane. The 2003 flare erupted late in Solar Cycle 23, months after maximum activity had passed.

This “late-cycle giant” phenomenon has appeared repeatedly: in the closing years of Cycles 19, 21, 22 and 23. Forecasters now treat it as a significant indicator of elevated risk. As Solar Cycle 25 enters its descending phase, large magnetically twisted sunspot groups similar to AR 10486 have already reappeared, reminding observers that the pattern persists.

OBSERVATION - Cycle 25 is in the descending phase, and space watchers are reporting that a cluster of sunspots that are soon to be earth oriented have tosses several X class flares already. X1s and so are big, but don’t often make significant impacts. These X45 monsters OTOH, are potential modern living killers.

An example would be the March 1989 geomagnetic storm caused a nine-hour outage of Hydro-Québec’s electricity transmission system. It was the result of a X15-class solar flare. Utilities have supposedly upped their protection of power lines, substations, power plants, etc so that a flare of that magnitude won’t impact power in the future. But a X45 is an entirely different beast.

Flares are classified according to their strength. The smallest ones are B-class, followed by C, M and X, the largest. Similar to the Richter scale for earthquakes, each letter represents a ten-fold increase in energy output. So an X is 10 times an M and 100 times a C. Within each letter class, there is a finer scale from 1 to 9. Although X is the last letter, there are flares more than 10 times the power of an X1, so X-class flares can go higher than 9. Within the X class, the higher the number, the stronger the flare, with an X2 flare releasing about twice as much energy as an X1 flare.

https://www.bgr.com/1998306/what-is-solar-flare-classifications-explained/

It is for these reasons that as part of my preparedness scans of the global news that I pay attention to solar activity. Studies have shown that even bigger ones have hit before recorded history. This study has me reevaluating steps I would need to take to protect home items.

NOTE - the EMP pulse from solar flares IS NOT THE SAME as those created by a nuclear device. A nuclear EMP is a more energetic and has a shorter burst. A solar flare EMP may also be referred to as a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) or a geomagnetic storm. Thus a nuclear EMP may directly hit electronic components, while a solar EMP uses power and rail lines for example, to collect the electrical charge and overwhelm larger systems. The Carrington event was noted for numerous fires started in telegraph stations and along rail road lines.

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