Well, time to screw our biological clocks up again as we fall back on hour tonight.
CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025
Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WARNING as of Oct 25, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WARNING as of Oct 25, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
SF Bay area - Local Threat - ADVISORY as of Oct 25, 2025.
DATES TO NOTE -
.
CRITICAL DATE - Nov 1, 2025, EBT and SNAP benefits are gone due to govt shutdown.
Nov 5 - Revolutionary Communists to “flood” Washington, D.C. protests
MASS BLACKOUT - Nov 26 - Dec 2. Economic boycott.
22 November rally in Washington, D.C by “Removal Coalition”
NOTE - Additional protests being announced for DC, assessing the potential for violence or other direct action.
***
WEEKEND FORECAST - Still at WARNING levels and could jump to WATCH should EBT/SNAP not get refilled. This is highly likely now that the Senate has adjourned until Monday.
Apart from that very volatile potential, the announced protests are in the same old - same old realm of sign holding. Expect ICE facilities in towns noted above to have potential for night time violence with some day time directed actions.
With the wide range of potentials, best keep your ears open at the local level.
***
Are SNAP/EBT cards refilled today? I believe the answer is still no, in spite of the overnight ruling by two rogue district judges. Ambiguities in the two decisions, as well as the clear constitutional principles involved, will allow the DoJ to slow walk this as an emergency appeal is being made.
The judicial decisions may have calmed the mob for a moment, but it won’t help at the checkout line with an empty card. Potential for growing violence as the weekend progresses is still a strong possibility.
***
Secretary of War Pete Hegseth extended the deployment of National Guard troops in Washington, D.C. until February 2026. There are 2,389 National Guard troops currently deployed in Washington, D.C., and 1,427 of those troops are from Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Ohio, South Dakota and West Virginia.
***
Customs and Border Protection (CBP) Chief Greg Bovino said coordinated attacks were conducted on federal agents on Wednesday as Bovino left a federal courthouse. According to Bovino, a coordinated vehicle ramming attack was conducted against CBP agents for a period of 40 minutes, with as many as 70 vehicles attempting to ram CBP vehicles.
RELATED - Video posted to social media show a red car that rear ended an ICE vehicle transporting an illegal to detention. Three occupants of the red car then attempted to try to release the illegal before being grounded and arrested by ICE. A large flash mob surrounded the agents and vehicle cheering on the rammers. The illegal along with the three rammers were placed in the ICE vehicle and it managed to drive away.
OBSERVATION - Coordinated actions speak to a larger conspiracy to impede federal law enforcement. Also speaks to an increasing threat to ICE and other federal agents. As the example above, the anti-ICE elements have the capability to spring a flash mob as back up. It is only a matter of time before another of these leftists attempt to use firearms to gain the release of detained illegals or try to prevent the arrest in the first place.
Terrorism - Threat Level - ADVISORY as of OCT 26, 2025
Downgraded due to declining global threats and middle east war
***
The FBI has reportedly arrested five people in what is being called a thwarted terror attack planned for Halloween night in Michigan.
Five people between the ages of 16 and 20 were arrested Friday, CBS News has learned. Authorities say they were inspired by a former member of the Michigan Army National Guard (a moslem) who was arrested in May for allegedly planning an ISIS-inspired attack against a U.S. Army site in suburban Detroit.
(Just a reminder that Detroit suburbs like Dearborn Heights are majority-Muslim.)
Michigan Halloween arrests are tied to international terrorism, top federal law enforcement source tells Fox News
So far, the targets of this planned attacks have not been announced, though there is talk that Jewish synagogues or other sites were on their list.
OBSERVATION -The MSM will be sitting tight on this event because moslems are one of the ‘protected’ classes.
***
The Atlantic reported that top Trump officials and their families have been moved to military bases due to ongoing and continued physical threats.
OBSERVATION - The Doxxing of officials has been incredibly intense and in these cases leftist have actually gone to the homes of these officials in an effort to threaten and intimidate them.
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
Oil prices spiked yesterday with the rumors of an impending strike on Venezuela
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
As of October 31, the USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) is still loitering in the Ionian Sea off the coast of Italy, waiting to link up with the remainder of Carrier Strike Group Twelve (CSG-12) currently deployed to the Mediterranean Sea. Once most of the ships are together, the Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group will begin its two week or longer journey towards the Caribbean, likely arriving between November 12-17.
***
The Pentagon has given the White House a green light to provide Ukraine with tomahawk missiles following an assessment that it would not affect US stockpiles. The final decision is in Trump’s hands. - CNN
***
Secretary Hegseth confirmed that the nuclear testing order will involve the Department of Energy (DOE). The Department of Energy is in charge of the nuclear warhead stockpile through the National Nuclear Security Administration.
OBSERVATION - DOE’s involvement suggests that the testing may involve components of warheads, minus the nuclear material but doesn’t rule out actual functioning rounds as well.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Judge Kollar-Kotelly, a veteran of the Washington establishment who has presided over numerous politically charged cases, declared that the President lacked the authority to direct the U.S. Election Assistance Commission (EAC) to update federal registration forms to require documentation like a birth certificate, passport, or naturalization papers. Her decision effectively removes any verification process at the federal level for proving that a person registering to vote is actually a U.S. citizen.
The case centered on the National Voter Registration Act (NVRA), often referred to as the “Motor Voter” law, which established a standardized federal form for voter registration. The Trump administration’s executive order sought to close the loophole that allows applicants to simply check a box claiming citizenship—without providing any proof. In her ruling, however, Kollar-Kotelly sided with left-wing groups who argued that the requirement would burden potential voters.
The effect of the ruling is simple but devastating: anyone, including non-citizens, can now use the federal voter registration form without ever proving they belong in the electorate of the United States. In other words, the government is trusting the “honor system” in an age of illegal immigration, mail-in ballots, and massive voter databases riddled with errors.
Election integrity advocates say this is precisely how trust in American democracy continues to erode. “Citizenship verification isn’t voter suppression—it’s common sense,” one constitutional attorney said after the decision. “You can’t board a plane without ID. You can’t buy alcohol without ID. Yet Democrats want you to vote without proving you’re even a citizen.”
https://patriot.tv/woke-clinton-judge-scraps-proof-of-citizenship-requirement-for-federal-voter-registration/
OBSERVATION - Another activist judge who’s ruling will eventually be overturned by a higher court - most likely the USSC.
***
Two federal judges blocked the Trump administration from ceasing to pay SNAP benefits that help feed 42 million Americans during the U.S. government shutdown. They ordered the administration to use allegedly available funds in the USDA budget to load cards up.
However, the rulings from both judges conflict and neither can be fully met at the same time.
Focal point is the claim that $6 billion in contingency funds already set aside by Congress is available to continue issuing SNAP benefits. The administration is arguing that the way congress wrote the law prohibits its use in this manner.
Essentially the courts are demanding that the administration break the law to fund SNAP.
The fact clearly is that these justices have stepped way out side their boundaries to usurp Executive and Congressional authority. The administration will likely slow walk compliance with this order, demanding that the judges very clearly specify how such a funding is legal while it is appealed to higher courts. This ruling cannot be allowed to stand on simple constitutional separation of powers basis.
RELATED -
Trump said Friday his administration is seeking immediate court clarification on how to legally fund the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program during the ongoing government shutdown.
“Our Government lawyers do not think we have the legal authority to pay SNAP with certain monies we have available, and now two Courts have issued conflicting opinions on what we can and cannot do,” Trump wrote Friday night on Truth Social.
https://www.newsmax.com/politics/snap-donald-trump-chuck-schumer/2025/10/31/id/1232774/
OBSERVATION - I don’t think we’ll see EBT cards fill until well into next week. These justices are on very thin ice and likely have broken thru the separation of powers clause of the Constitution.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
Personnel Issues –
Russia has officially integrated occupied Ukrainian territories into its Southern Military District and plans to begin mobilizing 50,000 to 100,000 residents for the war effort, according to Ukraine’s National Resistance Center. Men aged 18–55, including conscripts, are reportedly targeted for forced recruitment.
Economic Impact –
For the first time, Russia will borrow in Chinese yuan to plug its ballooning budget deficit, Reuters reports. The finance ministry plans to issue ¥300-400 billion worth of yuan-denominated bonds domestically, after failing for over a decade to secure favorable terms from Beijing. First placements may come in December.
OBSERVATION - I think I noted years ago when China started ‘helping’ Russia that the action would eventually end up having Russia so in debt to it that it would be under China’s thumb and under great debt. This in turn would cause Russia to capitulate potentially resources and even land in far eastern Russia to the Chinese.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 40-50 degree range with rain and rain showers first part of the week.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia launched 223 attack drones overnight, including around 140 Shaheds, from multiple directions. Ukrainian air defense shot down or suppressed 206 of them using aviation, SAMs, EW units, and mobile fire groups. Seventeen drones hit targets.
Power was reportedly knocked out in the Moscow suburb of Zhukovskiy tonight after a Ukrainian drone attack.
Ukraine’s GUR successfully conducted a major sabotage operation in Moscow, successfully blowing up the main gasoline, diesel fuel, and aviation fuel pipelines for Russia’s capital.
Russian losses per 01/11/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+900 men
+6 tanks
+2 ACVs
+9 artillery
+1 MLRS
+2 AD systems
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Ukraine has reportedly launched a local counteroffensive near Pokrovsk to restore key logistics routes, The Economist reports. GUR (UH-60 Blackhawk) helicopters and special forces have landed in areas Russians consider under their control.
Fierce fighting reported around the insertion, with some reports indicating that Russian FPVs have pinned down the element.
***
Ukrainian forces marginally advanced during recent counterattacks north of Pokrovsk as Russian forces continue to infiltrate into Pokrovsk and east of Myrnohrad (east of Pokrovsk).
It is estimated that Russia now controls about half of Pokrovsk
Analysis and Future Operations —
Fighting to hold Pokrovsk continues to be fierce as both sides are doggedly determined not to let the other win. Ukraine counter attack north of the city continue to be effective. However, should the city fall, Myrnohrad will go quickly thereafter having critical supply lines lost. This battle is testing the mettle of both sides. Russia currently has a slight advantage but that depends on how long the can supply reserve forces to the fight. putin is desperate to be able to claim some sort of victory following a summer of just more of the same meat grinder.
Unconfirmed reports that Russia is looking to forcefully conscript as many as 100K from occupied regions in the south suggest that they are having more and more personnel recruiting problems. Loyalty of these conscripts may well be questionable, though there are likely Russian supporters in the civilian mix. Forcing those who still see themselves as Ukranians to fight other Ukrainians may well blow up in Russia’s face in addition to international push back for this seemingly illegitimate conscription.
On a longer term view, Russia’s economic woes continue to force it to creatively finance the war effort. Basically selling itself off to China at premium rates. This goes back to continued analysis that Russia may well hit the wall in maintaining combat tempo in 2026.
Also on a longer term view is the question of whether or not Ukraine will receive some Tomahawk cruise missiles. Russia’s use of the Novator 9M729 cruise missile, banned under the INF Treaty, may help swing that use. The Tomahawks will give Ukraine some additional time to develop their own deep strike systems, while putting hurt to criterial Russian production facilities (petroleum and military related) in the crosshairs.
Belarus -
Lukashenko is once again threatening Europe, claiming the “Oreshnik” missile system will be combat-ready in Belarus by December. “If things go bad, we’ll sit down with Putin and strike,” he said.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas released 3 bodies that were not hostages.
- Israel stepping up on clearing out Hamas targets in Khan Yunis.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Airstrikes and artillery shelling east of Khan Yunis city. This is inside Israel’s “Yellow” zone
***
After examinations at Israel’s forensic institute, it has been confirmed that, as previously presumed, all three remains transferred to Israel from Gaza last night are **not** associated with any of the 11 Israeli fallen hostages. Israel maintains that Hamas has both the knowledge and the ability to return most of them at this time but is playing games and buying time
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
Israel is approving more Israeli developments in the area.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Hamas elements in the “Yellow” zone to be severely hammered and could severely harm Hamas’ overall capabilities. At present, expansion of fighting into unoccupied area of Gaza are minimal, consisting of drone missile strikes on identified Hamas teams setting up to attack Israeli forces.
Increasing scrutiny on Hezbollah and S Lebanon as Hezbollah regroups and manages to smuggle anti-tank weaponry. I see a general pattern being used again should fighting break out again and that would be intense bombing and artillery fire - and you better know darn well the Mossad has these positions identified very well. This would be followed by methodical, Israeli ground force movements to clean out Hezbollah positions in greater detail. This was slow, but through. The Lebanese govt is already under pressure from the US to get its act together and deal with Hezbollah.
I think such an uptick in fighting will hold until after the first of the year, given that the Lebanese govt has claimed that they will have finished disarming Hezbollah by then. Seeing the failed portion of the ceasefire agreement, Israel will see itself in a position to more freely act.
Lebanon -
Lebanon accuses Israel of responding to negotiation offer by ‘Intensifying’ attacks
Israel targeted and killed two Hezbollah targets in two attacks via drone launched missiles.
Hezbollah is rearming and rebuilding its forces in violation of a cease-fire deal, raising fears of renewed conflict with Israel, according to Israeli and Arab intelligence. The group is restocking rockets, antitank missiles, and artillery with Iranian support. — WSJ
OBSERVATION - See Israel above. Lebanon’s clock is ticking down on taking care of Hezbollah themselves.
Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025
Rumors spread by the Miami Herald overnight said that the US was hours away from striking narco-terrorist facilities in Venezuela. Trump denied he was considering strikes inside Venezuela - Reuters
The rumors were also fueled by the US military operations with B52s and supporting aircraft flying close to Venezuela as well as flight restrictions south of PR.
***
Amid the threat of US attacks, Venezuela has asked Russia, China and Iran for military assistance.
Venezuela’s transport minister told an Iranian official that Venezuela was in need of “passive detection equipment,” “GPS scramblers” and “almost certainly drones with 1,000 km [600 mile] range”.
***
According to military sources cited by the Trinidad and Tobago Express, the Trinidad and Tobago Defence Force has been placed on high alert, with the same elevated readiness extended to the Trinidad and Tobago Coast Guard.
The internal alert level, referred to as “State One Posture,” represents the highest level of operational readiness within the nation’s defense structure and is believed to have been enacted as a precautionary measure.
Personnel have been placed on a heightened state of alert and ordered to report to their bases by 1800 on October 31st.
Internal messages state “This is not a drill.”
Venezuela has warned it could retaliate against Trinidad and Tobago if the island assists Washington in any attack on its territory - Miami Herald
OVERALL OBSERVATIONS - Trump has Venezuela wetting their pants with these displays of force. At present, we can strike land targets without the necessity of having boots on the ground. Any escalation of the drug war will see these strikes first. Any boots on the ground scenario will see additional battlefield preparations and shaping before insertion of US forces. This I see is way down the road.
A key window that may suggest a time when action is escalated is when the USS Ford CSG arrives in the region and the couple weeks following that as they get the feel for the region and ramped up for any operations. Again, the Ford is not expected to be on station for about 3 weeks. I would expect the Ford’s key mission to be ground support of any forces on the ground.
We have enough systems in place and that can fly in from the US to handle missile/bombing of sites.
Thanks Godzilla
Globalism / Great Reset –
Danish cows are producing less milk and collapsing, with farmers placing the blame on a controversial new feed additive that’s supposed to reduce their methane emissions.
Since 1 October, farmers in Denmark have begun adding Bovaer into their cows’ feed to reduce their production of the greenhouse gas methane as they graze.
Environmentalists say methane emissions from livestock are one of the major contributors to global warming.
Danish newspaper Jyllands-Posten reported on Friday that it had spoken to a number of farmers who believe Bovaer is harming their herds.
“We have so many people who call us and are unhappy about what is happening in their herds,” said Kjartan Poulsen, chairman of the National Association of Danish Dairy Producers.
Farmers have reported lower yields of milk, and in some cases that the animals have collapsed. Some have even had to be euthanized.
Bovaer is manufactured by the Dutch company DSM and was approved by European Commission as an addition to cattle feed in 2022. The European Food Safety Authority has said the additive poses no risk to the health of cows.
Some of the farmers who spoke to Jyllands-Posten said they had removed Bovaer from the feed and their animals recovered.
The National Association of Danish Dairy Producers has now begun an investigation into the reports.
OBSERVATION - Not surprising. Globalists continuing to focus on sabotaging our food supply.
CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025
Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WARNING as of Oct 25, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WARNING as of Oct 25, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
SF Bay area - Local Threat - ADVISORY as of Oct 25, 2025.
DATES TO NOTE -
.
CRITICAL DATE - Nov 1, 2025, EBT and SNAP benefits are gone due to govt shutdown.
Nov 5 - Revolutionary Communists to “flood” Washington, D.C. protests
MASS BLACKOUT - Nov 26 - Dec 2. Economic boycott.
22 November rally in Washington, D.C by “Removal Coalition”
NOTE - Additional protests being announced for DC, assessing the potential for violence or other direct action.
***
WEEKEND FORECAST - Still at WARNING levels and could jump to WATCH should EBT/SNAP not get refilled. This is highly likely now that the Senate has adjourned until Monday.
Apart from that very volatile potential, the announced protests are in the same old - same old realm of sign holding. Expect ICE facilities in towns noted above to have potential for night time violence with some day time directed actions.
With the wide range of potentials, best keep your ears open at the local level.
***
Things seem relatively quiet on the SNAP/EBT side, with no substantial reports of mass looting of grocery stores, just the standard levels of attempts at shoplifting. I think things may pick up next week as the rogue judges try to press the administration to violate the law to fund payments.
Here is another mitigating factor. EBT payments for SNAP benefits are typically issued on a monthly schedule, with specific dates assigned based on the last digit of the head of household’s ID number. This means that benefits are spread throughout the month, allowing recipients to access their funds at different times. So we are not seeing the entire 42 million being zeroed out at the same time, but a fraction of them.
But lets be real, the class of people will willingly join in looting stores even if they have money in their cards.
***
Antifa actions at ICE facilities in Portland and Chicago continued at various levels of activity.
Yesterday Illinois State Troopers have declared an unlawful assembly outside the ICE Broadview facility near Chicago. They warned that those who refuse to leave will face chemical munitions and arrest.
In Portland, federal law enforcement agents arrested Antifa forces - in black bloc - who were trying to block access to the ICE facility.
Terrorism - Threat Level - ADVISORY as of OCT 26, 2025
Downgraded due to declining global threats and middle east war
***
An explosion which was reportedly “intentional” occurred Saturday morning at Harvard Medical School.
The Harvard Crimson reported that a device exploded inside the Goldenson Building at Harvard’s Longwood medical campus on the morning of Nov. 1. The details came from a Harvard University Police Department (HUPD) message to affiliates of the university.
An officer who responded shortly before 3 a.m. observed two individuals fleeing the building, according to the email sent by HUPD spokesperson Steven G. Catalano this afternoon.
The Boston Fire Department Arson Unit responded to the incident and determined the explosion to be intentional.
OBSERVATION - Further details have not come out, such as type of a device, motivation, etc.
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Another strike on drug smugglers in the Caribbean.
POLITICAL FRONT –
FBI Director Kash Patel has reportedly removed one of the senior agents who led the controversial “Operation Arctic Frost” investigation into President Donald Trump.
According to reports from MSNBC, Patel has ousted Aaron Tapp, a Special Agent in Charge who led the FBI’s San Antonio Field Office and played a central role in the Arctic Frost operation.
OBSERVATION - I expect more to come. It would be foolish of him to keep agents so willing to violate the constitution in a witch hunt employed in the agency.
***
A court-ordered distribution of emergency SNAP funds would require the Trump administration to break the law. They’ve asked for clarity from the woke judge who demanded it.
Brooke Rollins, Secretary of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), explained why SNAP cannot be sustained absent new congressional funding. She noted that while there is a so-called contingency fund, that fund “is only allowed to flow if the underlying appropriation is approved.” In other words: Congress must first appropriate the funds; otherwise even the reserve pot is off-limits.
In practical terms: if Congress fails to pass a continuing resolution or appropriation for the program, the Antideficiency Act prohibits federal agencies from obligating or expending funds for that program.
https://economiccollapse.report/why-snap-benefits-cant-be-funded-without-congressional-action/
OBSERVATION - This really strikes at the heart of these rogue judges - now demanding the administration VIOLATE the law so that the left’s socialist agenda can be maintained. As I’ve previously mentioned, the administration is going to slow walk compliance by forcing these judges to explain why the administration can just violate the law to meet their judgements.
***
The number of unions and trade associations calling for Senate Democrats to pass a “clean” continuing resolution – one identical to the one they voted for that expired on October 1, has been swelling.
Among them:
- Allied Federal Workers Union
- International Brotherhood of Teamsters
- National Retail Federation
- U.S. Chamber of Congress
- U.S. Travel Association
- American Hotel & Lodging Association
- Associated General Contractors of America
- Association of Equipment Manufacturers
- Business Roundtable
- Financial Services Forum
- National Association of Wholesale-Distributors
- National Electrical Manufacturers Association
- Allied Pilots Association
- Coalition of Airline Pilots Association
- NetJet Association of Shared Aircraft Pilots
- Southwest Airlines Pilots Association
- American Bankers Association
- National Association of Home Builders
- National Association of Manufacturers
- National Association of Realtors
- Airlines for America
- Information Technology Industry Council
OBSERVATION - My question is will these organization go the next step and pull funding from the democrats?
***
The Obama-nominated chief judge of the United States District Court for D.C. now faces impeachment articles that Rep. Brandon Gill (R-Tex.) filed, thanks to explosive revelations surrounding Operation Arctic Frost—a coordinated effort that saw 197 subpoenas unleashed against Republicans in Congress and citizens during the Biden administration.
Previous impeachment efforts stalled in Congress, but the landscape has shifted. There’s genuine possibility that accountability—real accountability—could finally arrive for a judge who’s weaponized his position against political opponents rather than administering justice fairly. Make no mistake about it, momentum for impeachment is growing, and according to Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.), articles of impeachment are being filed.
https://pjmedia.com/matt-margolis/2025/11/01/rogue-judge-boasberg-may-finally-be-impeached-n4945495
OBSERVATION - I hope this one gains traction among the generally spineless republican house. His key position in Operation Arctic Frost should be the final straw. We’re waiting to see.
***
The White House has tightened press access after reports that some journalists tried eavesdropping near Karoline Leavitt’s office during Cabinet talks, citing “security and privacy concerns.”
OBSERVATION - Of course, the MSM urinalists are whining and complaining over this ‘restriction’ to their 1st amendment ‘rights’. Sorry, unauthorized access to sensitive or classified material or discussion is illegal and attempts to secretly collect same is espionage.
Japan –
Russia just filed a formal protest after Japan ran war games near the Kuril Islands, which both countries claim like a decades-long breakup fight.
Moscow says the drills were “provocative” and warned they might take “compensatory measures” to protect their turf.
They’re especially salty about a U.S. missile system deployed to Japan since last year.
https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/1984442770397020165
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 40-50 degree range with rain and rain showers first part of the week.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
On the night of November 2, Russia launched 79 attack drones and two Iskander-M ballistic missiles at Ukraine. Around 50 of the drones were Shaheds. Ukrainian air defenses shot down or jammed 67 drones. One missile and 12 drones hit targets at six locations, with debris falling in two others.
Russian losses per 02/11/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+940 men
+4 ACVs
+25 artillery
Ukrainian hit the oil terminal in the Russian Black Sea Port of Tuapse overnight. The facility, used to export Russian oil products, is ablaze. Two tankers loading Russian oil, were also set ablaze.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Pokrovsk update: There are hard fights inside Pokrovsk center. Russians are trying to advance but the AFU has also gained some advantage at places. Meanwhile Russians try to advance northwest of Pokrovsk. Several groups were repelled.
Ukrainian forces have improved their tactical position in several blocks of Pokrovsk, according to the 7th Army Corps. Over the past week, 85 Russian troops were eliminated in the city. A successful non-parachute airborne landing was carried out, involving air defense, electronic warfare, and drone units.
Analysis and Future Operations —
All eyes continue to be focused on Pokrovsk as all indicators show the battle there continues to be intense. The mixture of forces have no real defined front line, adding to the confusion. Fog of war and OPSEC cover the rest.
From the reports and analysis I’ve looked at, Ukraine may have been successful at blunting the initial attack but lost a fair amount of ground in the process. Russia continues to work to encircle the town/area, but are receiving high casualties in the effort. Another factor seems to be that Russia may be running out of reserves to throw into the fight. Although the capture of this town has been high priority for Russia for over a year, they’ve gotten pretty well chewed up in the process.
FPV drones from both sides have turned the area into a very lethal environment.
Ukraine continues to chip away at Russia’s oil operations, nailing a significant port facilities overnight. Repairing the damage is one of Russia’s highest priorities, but the levels of damage in over the past few months have been higher than in the past, stressing both Russian budget and industrial capabilities to repair them.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Israel continues to reduce Hamas presence within the “Yellow” zone.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) published footage from October 31, captured by a U.S. Air Force MQ-9 “Reaper” Surveillance Drone operating over the Gaza Strip as part of the American-led Civil-Military Coordination Center (CMCC), showing militants, likely members of Hamas, attacking and looting an aid truck traveling as part of a humanitarian convoy delivering needed assistance from international partners to Palestinians in Khan Yunis.
***
RUMINT. There are growing accusations in southern Gaza that the Hamas leadership has abandoned its fighters in the southern brigades.
There are reportedly hundreds of fighters trapped underground in Israeli controlled areas behind the Trump “yellow line”, mainly in the Tel al Sultan, Shabboura, and eastern Khan Younis regions.
The families of these fighters,many of whose are in camps in the Muwassi area, have received desperate calls from their trapped sons claiming they were abandoned by the leadership and are voicing outrage toward the Hamas movement leadership for failing to assist them and effectively cutting their hope for survival.
OBSERVATION - I would not be surprised if this report is largely true. With no more hostages, and the green light given to Israel to clean up Hamas forces within its “Yellow” zone, means a short life expectancy for Hamas forces. See below
***
Twelve airstrikes targeted an underground tunnel east of Khan Yunis, Gaza.
Multiple terrorists and weapons were inside.
The area had remained untouched until a few weeks ago due to the presence of live hostages.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Israel has rejected plans to send Turkish forces to Gaza, despite U.S. pressure for a compromise. Washington is now weighing options like an unarmed mission or Turkish participation in rebuilding efforts. Turkey’s President has repeatedly said he will conquer Israel’s capital and Israel will cease to exist.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Israel will continue for the next weeks to clean out Hamas elements trapped within the Yellow Zone. Trapped and encircled, they are running out of supplies and time. And Israel is no longer hamstrung in striking the identified underground facilities.
Hamas continues to fail to return hostage remains.
The international coalition that is suppose to be compelling Hamas to disarm is failing miserably to do so. Thus I expect to see continued precise Israeli targeting of Hamas outside the ‘yellow zone’ should there be any potential threat to IDF elements.
Things continue to heat up against Hezbollah. I suspect that Israel will continue to let Lebanon try to uphold their end of the deal while selectively targeting Hezbollah leadership and sites to keep the pressure on. I think that after the first of the year, Israel may initiate ground action again.
Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Al Jazeera that Tehran has “no intention” of holding talks with the United States and “cannot halt uranium enrichment.” He said Washington’s proposals were “unacceptable and impossible,” and warned Israel of “severe consequences” if it carries out any future attacks.
This threat follows a report that the US was ready to resume discussions with Iran over its nuclear program. Iran talked big like this before the 12 day war, and we all see what that got them.
Lebanon -
U.S. Envoy Tom Barrack painted a grim picture of Lebanon’s collapse, contrasting the country’s institutions with Hezbollah’s growing dominance.
“There’s no central bank. The banking system is bust. There’s no electricity, people rely on private generators. For water and education, you need private providers. So what’s the state? The state is Hezbollah,” Barrack said.
He continued, “In the south, Hezbollah provides water, education. It has 40,000 soldiers; the LAF has 60,000. But Hezbollah soldiers make $2,200 a month, LAF soldiers $275. Hezbollah has 15–20,000 rockets and missiles; LAF soldiers have old jeeps and AK-47s. What’s happening here?”
https://x.com/osint613/status/1984681906693394493?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
OBSERVATION - Now this is after the US has funneled millions in aid to Lebanon to correct this deficiency
Syria -
Envoy Tom Barrack made an interesting revelation: Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa will visit Washington on November 10 and will meet with President Trump. This will be the first ever visit of a Syrian president to the White House.
Barrack also noted that a fifth round of direct negotiations between Israel and Syria, mediated by the US, is expected to take place after al-Sharaa’s visit to Washington, with the goal of trying to reach a security agreement on the border between the countries by the end of the year.
Nigeria – Threat Level - ADVISORY Nov 2, 2025
Added to the watch list due to moslems murdering Christian and orders to prepare to attack them by Pres Trump.
***
President Donald Trump on Saturday said he’s ordered the Pentagon to begin planning for potential military action in Nigeria as he stepped up his criticism that the government is failing to rein in the persecution of Christians in the West African country.
“If the Nigerian Government continues to allow the killing of Christians, the U.S.A. will immediately stop all aid and assistance to Nigeria, and may very well go into that now disgraced country, ‘guns-a-blazing,’ to completely wipe out the Islamic Terrorists who are committing these horrible atrocities,” Trump posted on social media.
“I am hereby instructing our Department of War to prepare for possible action. If we attack, it will be fast, vicious, and sweet, just like the terrorist thugs attack our CHERISHED Christians!”
The warning of possible military action came after Nigeria’s President Bola Ahmed Tinubu earlier Saturday pushed back after Trump announced a day earlier that he was designating the West African country “a country of particular concern” for allegedly failing to rein in the persecution of Christians.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/nigeria-christian-genocide-trump/2025/11/01/id/1232849/
OBSERVATION -
I don’t expect we will see the 82nd Airborne deployed to Nigeria, but a pause in foreign aid payments could well be in the offing. This will also be a challenge as the terrorists here are the Boko Haram/ISIS in Nigeria.
The US has special forces in the region helping with anti ISIS operations that could assist in coordination of actions, but are too few to actually commence ground operations. Developing.