Free Republic
Browse · Search
Bloggers & Personal
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Momentum Swing: Trump Jumps Four Points in Yahoo News/YouGov Poll Since Vance-Walz Debate
Red State ^ | 10/07/2024 | Bob Hoge

Posted on 10/07/2024 8:06:58 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

A month ago, following his debate against Democrat appointee nominee Kamala Harris, Donald Trump fell behind the vice president by four points among likely voters—49 to 45 percent—in a September Yahoo News/YouGov poll.

The times they are a-changin'.

In their latest poll, Yahoo/YouGov has the two in a dead heat at 47 percent each among likely voters. That’s a pretty big swing:

YouGov is a reliably biased and oversampled Democrat poll…. Yikes.

pic.twitter.com/f3diyHzN2K— Dr. G. Russian Bot (@overitall69) October 7, 2024

Kamala had a brief honeymoon after her unexpectedly not terrible debate performance against the former president in September, but that bump clearly seems to have run its course. Since that debate, Trump’s running mate took on Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and wiped the floor with him, adding a momentum boost to the ticket. Meanwhile, Kamala has failed to impress in the few interviews she gives, and her meaningless word salads have become internet comedy gold. 


Related: NEW POLL: Kamala Harris Won the Debate—yet It's Trump Who Gained a Point in Voter Support

HOT TAKES: Democrats, Media Seethe As Republicans Cheer After Vance Dominates Vice Presidential Debate

Friday Funnies: Hilarious Parody Campaign Ad Beautifully Exposes Kamala's Monumental Flaws


The party might be over for the "Weird Ticket":

The #KamalaKollapse is real. It's pretty bad when a Democrat loses 4 points on YOUGOV.

pic.twitter.com/58KP3p3Eom— Kyle Becker (@kylenabecker) October 7, 2024

Other numbers in the poll show that the more the public gets to know Kamala Harris, the more they don’t like her:

Two other numbers suggest that this pattern reflects real (if modest) movement in the presidential race.

First of all, Harris’s favorable rating ticked up from 47% in August to 49% after the September presidential debate; today, it has slipped back down to 46%. Harris’s unfavorable rating, meanwhile, has climbed to 49%.

But wait, there's more! Other numbers weren't so good for Harris either:

Just over a quarter of Americans (27%) say the US is heading in the right direction, while 60% say the country is on the wrong track...

However, Harris’ job approval rating was underwater by nine percentage points (41% approve, 50% disapprove), while Trump almost broke even in assessments of his four years in office (47% approve, 48% disapprove).

As we always say, polls are just polls, and there’s only one that matters—and that’s on November 5. That being said, it’s important to note that polls in 2016 and 2020 underestimated Trump’s support; if they’re wrong on that kind of scale again, expect a yuge Trump victory.

YouGov had Biden up +10 in 2020

pic.twitter.com/wLax597Frs— Wolf White (@HvitaUlfrinn) October 7, 2024

But hey, Kamala can always go on more sex podcasts and late-night comedy shows to improve her chances:

If it's YouGov, based on their dubious polling history, this really means Trump +4 or +5 ***in the popular vote***

No worries for the Harris-Walz camp. Appearing on Colbert, Kimmel and with Howard will surely move the needle, especially in states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin https://t.co/nK85ihur42— Joe Concha (@JoeConchaTV) October 7, 2024

It’s a long way out from when the Fat Lady sings, but if I were on Team Kamala, I’d be wiping the sweat off my brow about now. There just seems to be an awful lot of signs that voters have heard enough cackling and gibberish and want an actual leader.


More--> Trump Surging Ahead in Philly - Has Harris Lost the Blue-Collar Vote?

New Swing State Polling Data and Important Data Point to Big Trouble for Harris

Polymarket and CNN's Harry Enten Tag Team With More Bad News for Kamala Harris



TOPICS: Politics; Society
KEYWORDS: 2024; poll; polls

1 posted on 10/07/2024 8:06:58 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind
From the election betting site: POLYMARKET

Trump's lead is up to 8.6% in the odds today.

He's nearing his biggest lead since Kamala Harris entered the race.


2 posted on 10/07/2024 8:09:24 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind
MORE FROM POLYMARKET
BR> BREAKING: Trump’s lead over Kamala Harris just hit an all-time high in Pennsylvania.

Odds he wins are ahead by 12%.


3 posted on 10/07/2024 8:10:47 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

I caught some of “Gutfeld” tonight on FNC. He was talking about How incompetent Harris is and again inferred that Trump will win and it won’t be close. He has previously stated that “It will be over by 10:30PM.”

I tend to agree with him.


4 posted on 10/07/2024 8:25:26 PM PDT by Signalman (I am not a snob. Ask anyone who matters.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Signalman

Correction. It was Tyrus who made this comment on the Gutfeld show.


5 posted on 10/07/2024 8:29:40 PM PDT by Signalman (I am not a snob. Ask anyone who matters.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind
Just took a look at the Oddschecker moneyline...I calculated the actual probability based on -103 Trump and +106 Harris at 51.1% Trump and 48.9% Harris. This, if good data, is the best news I've seen for Trump on Oddschecker
6 posted on 10/07/2024 8:46:54 PM PDT by PerConPat (The politician is an animal which can sit on a fence and yet keep both ears to the ground.- Mencken)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Signalman

I hope so but I also saw a post on X Kamala Harris Opens Up 16-Point Lead Over Trump Among Independents: Poll.

I know it’s Newsweek but I wonder is it real?

https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-opens-16-point-lead-over-trump-among-independents-poll-1965053


7 posted on 10/07/2024 11:56:30 PM PDT by Beowulf9
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Signalman

Well I just saw that Newsweek article is a post here on FR and the comments made mess skeptical of that poll, so I take back my original post.


8 posted on 10/08/2024 12:05:12 AM PDT by Beowulf9
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

I’m pretty sure the one that showed her up by 5 was registered voters and this great one is Likely Voters.

Likely voters are obviously far more important.

And Trump is gaining momentum in a number of polls...he should fly into the election date.


9 posted on 10/08/2024 1:45:58 AM PDT by dp0622 (Tried a coup, a fake tax story, tramp slander, Russia nonsense, impeachment and a virus. They lost.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Signalman

Implied.


10 posted on 10/08/2024 2:20:22 AM PDT by HIDEK6 (God bless Donald Trump)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
Bloggers & Personal
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson