Threat Matrix 2024

Globalism / Great Reset –

The United States Department of Justice along with the United Nations is filing an official document in a U.S. federal court arguing that UN employees who took part in the Oct. 7 massacre of Israelis are immune from prosecution.

The U.N. Oversight Investigations Division confirmed that compelling evidence was presented against at least nine UNRWA workers, but no legal proceedings are pending against them. Israel claims many more UNRWA employees were complicit in the massacre.

In the document submitted to the court, the U.N. claims the UNRWA employees who participated in the massacre have immunity: “Since the U.N. has not waived their immunity in this case, its subsidiary organization, UNRWA, continues to enjoy absolute immunity from prosecution, and the lawsuit should be dismissed.”

Attorney General Merrick Garland supported the UN’s claim that these officials have immunity.

OBSERVATION - The globalists protect their minions. Even those who killed on behalf of Hamas terrorists.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Sep 12, 2024

Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo ignited social media on Wednesday after she called to “extinguish” former President Donald Trump “for good” which comes after Trump has survived multiple assassination attempts.
Raimondo made the remarks during an MSNBC interview on “Morning Joe,”

OBSERVATION - All the left’s talk about deescalating violent rhetoric is nothing but bovine excriment. Raimondo is speaking what is on the hearts of the left not only towards trump but any and all on the right as well.

***
More threats by the left

“If former President Donald Trump wins November’s election, he would pose an “existential threat” — at least according to a letter apparently from the National Association of Letter Carriers (NALC), obtained by The Federalist.
“If Donald Trump wins the upcoming election, it could prove an existential threat to our union and our contract,” the letter reads. “Your vote matters: consider how the consequences could affect you, your job, and our union when deciding how to vote.””

https://thefederalist.com/2024/09/25/exclusive-postal-union-sends-letter-calling-trump-existential-threat/

***
Placing this here as this is further evidence of a likely insider action to allow Trump to be killed, which could have sent the country into widespread violence. . . . .
The Secret Service was warned of a “credible” threat in the days leading up to the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump at a July 13 campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, but failed to act accordingly, according to a damning bipartisan Senate report released Wednesday.

The Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs released an interim report on the attack that detailed numerous “failures” by the Secret Service to secure the site and to respond to threats.

“The Committee finds that USSS failures in planning, communications, security, and allocation of resources for the July 13, 2024 Butler rally were foreseeable, preventable, and directly related to the events resulting in the assassination attempt that day,” the report said. “The Committee also finds that siloed communications and coordination problems between federal, state, and local law enforcement officials remain unaddressed and were a contributing factor to the failures at the July 13 Butler rally.”

The report said that the Secret Service Lead Advance Agent was made aware of a “credible intelligence” threat to Trump on July 9, but that she still reported that there was “no adverse intelligence” in a security planning document in preparation for the rally. In response to the threat, a Secret Service counter-sniper team was assigned to the rally, but almost no one was told of the threat.

The Lead Advance Agent told the Senators that she was told of the threat by a Secret Service official who said he couldn’t discuss specifics of the threat.

https://www.dailywire.com/news/secret-service-was-told-of-credible-threat-to-trump-days-before-butler-rally

OBSERVATION - The Keystone cops were better than the SS. The gross incompetence displayed here is appalling.

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024

(FO) An ILA strike at East and Gulf Coast ports is likely on 1 October. ILA reiterated last week that the union is prepared for a strike, and USMX said they have no meetings with the ILA scheduled this week. Acting Labor Secretary Julie Su would have to be invited by both sides to intervene, according to the Biden administration. And the White House has said it will not use the Taft-Hartley Act to ask the courts to block a strike for 80 days.

OBSERVATION - WH reluctance to step in will virtually guaranteed substantial supply chain issues that could significantly harm the economy right when such shocks would make the biggest impacts. biden et al are selling out to the unions, likely to garner additional democrats support for the elections. Damage to the economy may backfire on them though. The longer the strike persists the more significant the disruption, and the longer the economy and supply chains will take to recover.

RELATED
(FO) The U.S. National Feed and Grain Association (NFGA) and 55 other trade groups urged the White House to act immediately to avert disruptions at East and Gulf Coast ports. According to the NFGA, 40% of U.S. agricultural exports move through East and Gulf Coast ports, and ag supply chain impacts will “quickly reverberate” throughout the entire ag industry.

POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
Debates ???

Vance/walz - Oct. 1

**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****

****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****

***
Congress passed a stopgap bill to avert a partial government shutdown beginning next week, even as a large number of Republicans revolted against their leadership for failing to achieve new federal spending cuts.
The stopgap funding bill will maintain the government’s current level of roughly $1.2 trillion in annual discretionary funding through Dec. 20, avoiding the furloughing of thousands of federal workers and shutdown of a wide swath of government services just weeks before the Nov. 5 election.

***
Harris said she will back Senate Democrats’ push to remove the Senate legislative filibuster, to pass a law codifying Roe v. Wade with a simple majority.

OBSERVATION - Removal of the filibuster has been a hot/cold issue with democrats, wanting the removal to press their agenda, but defending it when republicans have threatened the same.

Biden / Harris Watch –

Harris’ latest interview on Wednesday with Stephanie Ruhle of MSNBC was another dumpster fire. One word salad response for example -

“Some of the work is gonna be through what we do in terms of giving benefits and assistance to state local governments around transit dollars and looking holistically at the connection between that and housing and looking holistically at the incentives we in the federal government can create for local and state governments to actually engage in planning in holistic manner that includes prioritizing affordable housing for working people.”

She is demonstrating that she can’t even handle scripted interviews from a friendly media type.

Japan –

A Japanese warship sailed through the Taiwan Strait between Taiwan and China for the first time, according to reports in Japanese media.
The JS Sazanami, a naval destroyer, passed through the strait from north to south on Wednesday, accompanied by ships from Australia and New Zealand.
The vessel was on its way to take part in military exercises in the South China Sea, Japanese ministers were quoted as saying.
This would be a significant move by Japan, which is thought to have avoided sailing its ships through the strait in order not to upset China, which claims self-governed Taiwan and the strait.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm28yd04xxno

Russia -

NUCLEAR THREATS –

Russia is changing its nuclear doctrine, as Putin held a security council meeting on “nuclear deterrence.” Which, according to Putin, includes expanding the category of states and military alliances subject to nuclear deterrence, adding new military threats that could trigger nuclear deterrence measures, and maintaining the right to use nuclear weapons in the event of aggression against Belarus.

He added that a confirmed air or space attack on Russia will prompt a nuclear response, and a critical threat to Russian sovereignty with conventional weapons will also justify a nuclear response. Additionally, any aggression against Russia by a non-nuclear state, if supported by a nuclear state, will be treated as a joint attack on Russia.

OBSERVATION - Analysts are noting that this represents another lowering of the nuclear bar for Russia and is designed primarily to put fear into NATO countries and their decision processes in allowing Ukraine to use western weapons systems to strike deep into Russia.

Key point - even ‘aid’ to Ukraine can cross this new red line.
This also comes after the failure of the “Satan - 2” ICBM missile test, the fourth failure in 5 tests.

Russian Personnel Issues –-

According to Forbes, Russia is sending its sailors from the aircraft carrier ‘Admiral Kuznetsov’ to the front due to a shortage of personnel.
Part of the aircraft carrier’s crew, which previously consisted of 1,500 people, was transferred to the ground forces and formed a ‘frigate’ battalion, which is participating in combat operations as part of the 1st Guards Tank Army.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 70s and fair.

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Russia continues to throw forces into this front as well as all of the Donbas sector.
Robotyne Axis -.

Outlook —

Fierce fighting across the Donbas region as Russia scrambles to capture as much terrain as possible before the winter sets in. Ukraine is grudgingly giving up terrain, but is inflicting high losses to Russian forces and equipment in the process.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- A claim of a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah played out overnight.

- IDF general warns the next phase is a ground war.

- IAF continues to hammer Hezbollah rocket related sites as well as Hezbollah command and control.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

October 2, Rosh Hashana, the Jewish New Year,

Overnight a great deal of confusion was thrown into the situation when a statement was released by the US and ‘allies’ stating that a 21 day cease fire was about to be enacted. The joint statement (inclusive of United States, Australia, Canada, European Union, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Qatar ) released by the White House calls for a ceasefire consistent with UNSCR 1701. That resolution mandates Hezbollah be disarmed south of the Litani. However, Hezbollah was not specifically named in the proposal. So Israel would be justified in saying it will agree to a ceasefire when Hezbollah has done just that.

Neither of the two statements referred to Hezbollah, a U.S.-designated terror group, which has launched thousands of rockets at the Jewish state since Oct. 8. Israel has targeted launch sites and missiles tied to Hezbollah and has not declared war on Lebanon.

Hezbollah was specifically left out of this ‘agreement’ but claimed that Lebanese government would coordinate the signing with Hezbollah. This came as a surprise to the Lebanese PM -

Office of the Prime Minister of Lebanon: “We deny the news of the Prime Minister signing the ceasefire proposal after his meeting with Blinken and Hochstein”

Unnamed ‘officials’ in Israel put out the claim that Netanyahu had signed onto the plan. In a statement, that claim was cited as false -

Prime Minister’s Office:
“The news about a ceasefire is incorrect. This is an American-French proposal, to which the Prime Minister did not even respond.”

“The news about the supposed directive to moderate the fighting in the north is also the opposite of the truth. The Prime Minister instructed the IDF to continue the fighting with full force, and according to the plans presented to him.”

The claim from “US officials” was that the cease fire was to take effect in the next few hours (time window now past). Hezbollah ceased rocket fire and other attacks for about 20 hours and has since resumed - allegedly simulating a ‘cease fire’.

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Activity levels still continue at fairly low levels.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Overnight, the Israeli army says fighter jets struck over 280 targets across Lebanon, including rocket launchers and military infrastructure, such as weapons depots.

Fighter jets struck 60 terrorist targets belonging to Hezbollah’s intelligence directorate. The strikes destroyed intelligence-gathering tools, command centers, and additional infrastructure used by the enemy to build an intelligence situational assessment.

The Israeli army says it is continuing to strike in Lebanon to destroy Hezbollah’s capabilities.

IDF spokesman:
The Commander of the Northern Command: “We have entered another phase of the campaign, we need to be very strongly prepared for a entry ground maneuver and action”

For the first time since the beginning of Operation Northern Arrows, the Israeli Air Force is attacking Hezbollah terrorist targets in the city of Byblos, north of Beirut.

In accordance with the assessment of the situation in the IDF, it was decided to recruit two reserve brigades for operational missions in the northern sector.
According to the statement of the IDF spokesman, “their recruitment will allow the continuation of the fighting effort against the terrorist organization Hezbollah, the protection of the citizens of the State of Israel and the creation of the conditions for the safe return of the residents of the north to their homes.”

Hezbollah claims that this morning’s Attack on Tel Aviv was carried out using a “Qadr-1 or 110” Medium-Range Ballistic Missile, which is an Improved variant of the “Shahab-3” Ballistic Missile equipped with a with a 700-1,000kg Warhead and produced by Iran. While the Houthis in Yemen were previously known to posses the missile, this is the first time that it has been confirmed Hezbollah is also in possession of it.

Sheikh Muhammad Amro, commander of Hezbollah’s North Lebanon, was eliminated in an airstrike.

More than half a million south Lebanese residents have fled from their homes. Many of them are crossing into Syria.
The Shiite supporters of Hezbollah aren’t welcomed in Sunni, Druze of Christian villages of Lebanon. Syria is their only option.

PRE GROUND ATTACK INDICATORS

- IDF General specifically notes an impending ground assault

- Reserve forces called up.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Israel army said it attacked several crossing borders between Lebanon and Syria to prevent arms transfers to Hezbollah

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Iran is trying to work out a deal with Russia to supply Houthis supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Turkey preparing for possible evacuation of citizens, foreigners from Lebanon, source says

——— FORECAST ————————-

The whole soap opera of a ‘ceasefire’ played out overnight with a degree of incredibility. Let me break this down into some bullet points.

- This so called proposal follows a week of Israel bashing at the UN
- Israel has its boot to Hezbollah’s throat
- Israel on verge of ground operations into Lebanon
- The deliberate non-reference to Hezbollah in this proposal, written in a manner that suggests Israel has declared war on greater Lebanon.
- The “pause” in Hezbollah attacks faking a cease fire.
- The disinformation that was disseminated throughout Israel that Netanyahu was doing a hard 180 on his stated policies and goals.

Folks, IMHO, this was an attempt by the globalist factions to try to throw a wrench into Israel’s efforts to end Hezbollah. The unmitigated gaul of these countries to claim to have worked out a ceasefire that was agreed to by both sides - absent input from both sides - is disgusting.

The only ones who would benefit from a 21 day ceasefire would be Hezbollah - giving them breathing space to regroup while at the same time refusing to disarm from regions south of the Litani River. Israel has fallen to such a ploy over the years. At this time they have shown resistance to fall for Lucy and the football again. Nasarallah’s entire command staff has been eliminated, and only third stringers (those unworthy of pagers - as noted by another commentator) are trying to run the operation.

Also note - Hezbollah must of had some kind of heads up in order to fake a ‘ceasefire’ for about 20 hours - to increase leverage against Israel.

This was but another effort to split the Netanyahu govt up. Note that unnamed sources claimed Netanyahu was supportive of the cease fire, but those were slapped down hard by his office clearly and unmistakably shutting off talk of acceptance of the ‘proposal’.

I expect to see some protests in Israel by the left - common reactions. This may also accelerate the ground operation in the face of US et al subterfuge. Netanyahu and the country has a kind of ‘get ur done’ attitude, and with the stated primary goal of returning Israelis to their homes in the north, such a ‘ceasefire’ proposal would not accomplish that task.

I fully expect that the IAF tsunami of airstrikes on Hezbollah targets will continue and that we can now expect ground operations shortly.

Syria -

An attack targeted the US base in the Conoco gas field in Deir Ezzor Governorate.

Misc of Note –

Hurricane “Helene” is expected to rapidly intensify to a Category 4 major hurricane before making landfall on Florida’s Big Bend coast on Thursday, September 26, 2024. Catastrophic storm surge, potentially reaching 6 m (20 feet) above ground, along with destructive winds and life-threatening flash flooding, pose serious risks to the region. Residents in affected areas are urged to follow evacuation orders and complete preparations immediately.

OBSERVATION - Warnings should be heeded and preparations already laid in. This is not a drill. Of particular note is that the storm is projected to hang a left hand turn and move east along Tennessee instead of the normal path of swinging right and returning to the Atlantic. Could pose additional flooding threats.

Had errands this morning but breaking news out of Lebanon.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Sep 12, 2024

Muslim and far-left extremists, many of them holding Hamas and Hezbollah terror flags, have again shut down the streets of New York City in a direct action.
More disturbances expected today with Netanyahu speaking before the UN.

Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Sep 21, 2024 due to threat to shoot down Trump.

DEVELOPING
RUMOR: There are reports (most recently aired on Fox News) that the Secret Service has credible intelligence that Trump Force One may be the target of an assassin armed with a shoulder fired missile. As a result the Secret Service is recommending that Trump’s campaign use multiple unmarked charter jets to transport the former president and campaign staff. No one from the campaign is confirming or denying these rumors/reports.

Unconfirmed reports that nine heat-seeking surface-to-air missiles have been smuggled into the US by Mexican cartels for this purpose. And there are at least three kill teams already inside the country.

OBSERVATION - This is deep into the gray zone as far as accuracy goes. However, earlier reports of at least 5 assassination teams in country is considered very likely given the vast numbers of illegals that have poured in and the number of ID’d terrorists that have been released by DHS, not including the ‘got aways’. Cooperation with drug cartels in Mexico is also very plausible, money talks, and they have the ways and means to get something like a MANPAD system(s) into the US undetected.

Trump Force One is a very easily identifiable airplane. Included in the reported security briefing is the effort for him to switch to unmarked, more generic looking aircraft. This would add further credibility to the MANPAD threat.

IMHO, the most likely player in this would be Iran who has already openly threatened Trump’s life. There are other nations/groups out there that would also have the desire to kill Trump, but Iran is the biggest one.

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Oct 2- 5: International Bird Flu Summit in DC

Gilead Sciences has announced a recall of its antiviral drug remdesivir.
Remdesivir had a 53% mortality rate in clinical trials done in Africa. This is the same medication they forced on us while preventing us from using hydroxychloroquine & ivermectin!
(Dr Simon Gold on “X”)

POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
Debates ???

Vance/walz - Oct. 1

**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****

***

Note increased threat on Trump’s life

A New York Appellate Court panel heard oral arguments in former President Trump’s appeal in a civil case brought by New York Attorney General Letitia James. New York Judge Arthur Engoron ordered Trump to pay $454.2 million in penalties in February. Observers note that the panel appeared to be very skeptical toward the judgement and many are thinking that the verdict against trump will tossed.

China –

41 PLA aircraft and 6 PLAN vessels operating around Taiwan were detected up until 6 a.m. (UTC+8) today. 32 of the aircraft crossed the median line and entered Taiwan’s Northern, central, southwestern and eastern ADIZ.

OBSERVATION - Though these incursions have been happening on a daily basis, the number of planes involved is about twice the number of the ongoing average of intrusions.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 70s and fair.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukrainian air defense shot down 24 of 32 Shahed-type drones. Kyiv was particularly targeted

Reports that Ukraine has demolished several very large attacks in the Donbas region.

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Marynivka village of Donetsk region of Ukraine

Outlook —

No real change in the action. Russian continuing to attack across the Donbas region.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Netanyahu speaks before the UN

- Massive IAF airstrike at what is believed to be the bunker HQ of Nasrallah in Beirut.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

October 2, Rosh Hashana, the Jewish New Year,

Netanyahu addressed UN today, saying Israel will finish what it started and essentially the UN can lead, follow or get out of the way.

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Activity levels still continue at fairly low levels.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

BREAKING - At the end of Netanyahu’s UN speech, IAF launched a massive airstrike on the compound in Beirut believed to house Nasrallah’s bunker. F35s with bunker buster bombs carried out the mission. It is estimated no less than 60 bunker-penetrating missiles were launched at Hezbollah headquarters.

Some Hezbollah sources are saying Nasrallah is safe and will soon address the people. Israel believes he was present there at the time of the attack.

LATEST - Tasnim News Agency (IRGC) has now withdrawn their statement which claimed Nasrallah was alive with them now stating they can not confirm his status. The Iranians say that they don’t know what Hassan Nasrallah’s condition is “because the communication with the Dahiyeh has been cut off”.

Netanyahu is cutting short the remainder of his time in the US and is headed back to Israel.

Known fatality is one Hashem Safieddine, head of Hezbollah’s Executive council and widely considered to be the successor to Nasrallah.

Israel did not inform the US of the attack in advance.

The leader of the Christian Kataeb party in Lebanon Sami Gemayel calls on Hezbollah to immediately hand over its weapons and the south to the Lebanese army.

Hezbollah confirms 51-year-old commander Muhammad Husayn Surur was killed in Thursday’s Israeli strike in Beirut’s Dahiyeh. Member since 1986, had a prominent role in the fight in Syria, was in charge of air force (Drones) since 2020. Hezbollah leaders Abbas Ibrahim Sharaf Ad-Din and Hussein Hany were also eliminated.

IAF continues its high intensity bombing campaign, striking several hundred targets overnight.

Hezbollah managed to fire some rockets at Israel, but in highly surpassed numbers.

SURGE IN PRE GROUND ATTACK INDICATORS

- Washington Post: Israeli military convoys mass in the north in preparation for a possible ground incursion into Lebanon

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Syrian Ministry of Defense: Israeli attack at dawn on one of our military sites on the Syrian-Lebanese border near Kfir Yabous in the Damascus countryside. The aggression on the Damascus countryside led to the deaths of 5 soldiers and the injury of another

IDF confirm they have bombed bridges today that link Lebanon to Syria and which is used to transfer weapons.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Houthis launched a ballistic missile towards Tel Aviv and a drone towards Ashkelon in Israel. Both were taken out by Israeli air defenses.

Initial reports from Yemen indicate a US and UK airstrike in the Saada district in the northern part of the country.

CNN: The US military intercepted a barrage of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and UAVs at two American warships in the Bab al-Mandab Strait area

——— FORECAST ————————-

The fact that Israel targeted the main HQ for Hezbollah is astounding just in itself. The very likely fact that Nasrallah was likely there - and Israel has been very accurate on Hezbollah leaders that have been targeted so far - adds to the mix. Observers judging from the amount of damage are pretty convinced that anyone who was in the bunker at the time is dead.

The impact of the death of Nasrallah is difficult to gauge at this time. So many senior leaders of Hezbollah have been taken out over the past months that picking a successor with enough clout to be recognized as the new leader will be difficult. It will also start of chain of reestablishing links of command as well as the new leader just trying to figure out what has hit Hezbollah.

One other impact - talk of a ceasefire will be quenched for the near future.

Confirmed death will likely accelerate Israel’s preparation for a ground operation, again to strike while the iron is hot. Hezbollah will be even more fractured and demoralized is Nasrallah is dead.

Eyes again look to Iran, who so far in the face of the Israeli full on attacks has been pretty silent. It is hard to see that Iran’s golden boy threat to Israel which they have poured billions of dollars into getting ready for this confrontation being left out to dry, but so far that is what is happening.

Israel has the capability to launch a ground offensive at any time. The question is to hit before or after Rosh Hashana.

Syria -

The United States (U.S.) announces $535 million in additional humanitarian assistance to support the people in Syria

OBSERVATION - Why are we propping up Assad’s govt and its war on the people of Syria?

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Shipuilder Newport News Shipbuilding, Va., informed the Department of Justice of faulty welds that may have been made intentionally on non-critical components on in-service Navy submarines and aircraft carriers, USNI News has learned.

HII reported to the Navy that welds on new construction and in-service submarines and Ford-class aircraft carriers were made not following welding procedure, according to a Tuesday memo from Assistant Secretary of the Navy for Research, Development and Acquisition Nickolas Guertin to Secretary of the Navy Carlos Del Toro and Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Lisa Franchetti.

Guertin told SECNAV and CNO the workers did not follow proper techniques to weld the suspect joints with an early indication that some of the welding errors were intentional. Based on the Newport News assessment of the welds, the shipyard notified the Department of Justice over the issue.

https://news.usni.org/2024/09/26/doj-notified-of-suspected-intentionally-faulty-welds-on-subs-aircraft-carriers-at-newport-news-shipbuilding

OBSERVATION - Reports that some of these welds were deliberately done. People should be in jail.

Biden / Harris Watch –

Harris not getting any traction from her latest ‘interview’ with MSNBC. Dodging questions and abundant word salads are a driving factor.

Harris FINALLY showed up to to the border and exposed to the disaster she created for the past 3 years.

Illegal Immigration –

Harris/Biden ICE Director ADMITS over 425,000 known convicted criminal illegal immigrants have been RELEASED into the United States including 13,000 who were convicted of homicide and 15,000 convicted of sexual assault.

China –

China’s first Zhou-class submarine, a new nuclear-powered attack vessel, sank earlier this summer at the Wuchang shipyard in Wuhan. The sinking represents a major setback for China’s effort to expand and modernize its naval assets in what has been called an arms race with the U.S.

The sinking occurred dock-side in May or June this year, but was first reported by The Wall Street Journal on Thursday. A senior U.S. defense official, speaking on condition of anonymity, has since confirmed the incident.

https://gcaptain.com/new-chinese-nuclear-submarine-sinks-in-setback-for-navy-expansion/

OBSERVATION - Though improving, Chinese workmanship still has a lot to be desired.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 70s and fair.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

The Air Force reports on a combined missile and drone attack overnight.
Shot down:
0/2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles
2/2 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles
69/73 Shahed drones
Three more drones were lost on Ukrainian territory, likely due to electronic warfare. 15 of the drones were shot down in the Kyiv region.

(ISW). Ukrainian forces repelled a reinforced battalion-size Russian mechanized assault in the Kupyansk direction on September 26 — the first large Russian mechanized assault along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line since Winter 2024. Russian forces are likely focusing on establishing a foothold directly on the Oskil River because it would allow Russian forces to envelop Ukrainian positions on the east bank of the river both to the north and south.

Outlook —

The latest Russian larger scale assault in days and same result - taken out big time. Unconfirmed reports that Putin is pressing forces to capture Donbas by the middle of next month may be driving these assaults. The battalion sized force mentioned above had about a dozen tanks and a couple dozen APC (mostly archaic MT-LPs) - all were damaged/destroyed and put out of commission. Also noted in reports were the attack was accompanied by jammers - supposedly to protect against UAV attacks. However, they apparently didn’t work well as the UAVs picked the armor column apart.

Russia also seems to have a substantial supply of shahed style drones and are maintaining a pretty aggressive pattern of larger numbers for attacks. Missing are the more strategic ballistic and cruise missile components of past attacks.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Nasrallah dead after a bold airstrike on his Beirut HQ bunker.

- Iranian leadership heads to bunkers

- Beirut hit with more heavy bombs

——— GENERAL ——————————-

October 2, Rosh Hashana, the Jewish New Year,

Israeli officials: We are preparing for a direct attack from Iran

More details on Reserve Call ups - The IDF called up the 6th and 228th Reserve Brigades, and several additional reserve battalions to enable combat efforts to continue, target Hezbollah’s military capabilities, and create the conditions for residents of northern Israel to return safely to their homes.

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Activity levels still continue at fairly low levels.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Hezbollah has officially announced that its Secretary General Sayed Hasan Nasrallah was killed in the Israeli attack on Friday. This follows some pro-Hezbollah new sources initially saying he was still alive - later to delete their reports.

The IDF spokesman announced yesterday), in addition to killing Nasrallah, they took out Ali Karaki, the commander of the southern front in Hezbollah, and other commanders in Hezbollah.

According to Arab reports, over ten Iranians were eliminated in a building in the Dahieh area of Beirut. Reportedly, this was a senior delegation that had come for a secret meeting with Nasrallah, possibly from the IRGC Al Quds Force. It’s no surprise that a few hours after the elimination, rumors in Iran suggested that the commander of the Al Quds Force was among those killed.

In the aftermath, The IDF is asking the residents of the Dahieh neighborhood to evacuate.
This is the message of the IDF spokesman in Arabic - calling on civilians within 500 meters of the attack site to evacuate immediately! Israel then began bombing the area to take out strategic missile in storage - principally advanced anti-ship missiles - and other Hezbollah facilities.

News of his death sparked celebrations in Syria’s opposition controlled Idlib after Nasrallah was targeted by Israel

Joy in many Sunni communities in Lebanon, Syria and other places, following the news about the successful elimination of Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah!

Israel continued its stepped up attacks on Hezbollah munitions and rocket launching capabilities throughout Lebanon. Israeli army reports 140 other Hezbollah targets were hit in Lebanon last night

Hezbollah response to the loss of Nasrallah has been essentially anemic. A lot of ‘barrages” have been fired at Israel, but may consisted only of a half dozen rockets , evidence that Israel has taken most of the teeth out of that threat.

Lebanese Prime Minister: The government will hold an extraordinary session this evening to discuss current developments

SURGE IN PRE GROUND ATTACK INDICATORS

- IDF: In accordance with the situational assessment, the IDF is calling up three reserve battalions for operational activities and to strengthen the defense in the Central Command.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Overnight (Friday), following IDF intelligence, the IAF struck and eliminated the terrorist Ahmad Muhammad Fahd, Head of the Hamas terrorist network in southern Syria.

Fahd was responsible for carrying out terror attacks against IDF troops and the State of Israel from the area of southern Syria, including firing projectiles toward the Golan Heights area.

———WEST BANK——————————-

Israeli army reinforces its forces in the West Bank with 3 battalions of reserve forces.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

UK Foreign Office: British citizens are required to leave Lebanon now. Working to increase the capacity for the safe evacuation of British citizens

——— FORECAST ————————-

Israel has gone into full honey badger mode and it is an incredible sight.
Historically, Israel has buckled under primarily US pressure to stop its fight and accept ceasefire conditions not in their favor. Israel has also been pressured to not to attack any sites associated with civilian facilities (ie, under them). This phase of the war Israel is going ahead to close in and destroy both Hamas and Hezbollah. The decimation of Hezbollah’s leadership has been incredible and the final blow to take out Nasrallah the capstone of some incredible intelligence work.

Some are thinking that Netanyahu’s UN address was a diversion to lull Hezbollah & Nasrallah into a false sense of security. Add to this the ceasefire hints from Netanyahu’s office were also part of the deception. If this is the case, then the skill of the Netanyahu’s staff and officers is to be saluted as well. As some commentators are noting, Israel is speaking in a clear voice the language that the arab world understands.

All eyes on Iran. The unprecedented collapse of Hezbollah over the past few weeks has put them in between a rock and a hard place. Nasrallah’s death, in addition to the decimation of almost all of the higher and mid level commanders has left Hezbollah rudderless. The destruction of comms have made matters worse. Now Iran has to fish or cut bait, so to speak. Inaction by Iran would be viewed in the arab world as a supreme sign of weakness, and to do so in front of the Israelis almost unspeakable. Iran is becoming aware that Israel is not fighting has it has in the past and is going for the jugular. With Hamas essentially gone and Hezbollah on its last legs, Iran is having to rely upon less reliable militias in Syria, Iraq and Yemen for proxy support.

As stated below “ Israel may destroy its oil industry and nuclear facilities.” Israel has many more weapons in its arsenal besides fighter/bombers to accomplish this - cruise missile carrying subs and ballistic missiles.

Iran has some capability to strike at Israel with drones, and various missiles as they did in April, but the venerability of those weapons to counter measures (and general misfires) along with threat by counter attacks may put them on continued hold. I don’t see any immediate strikes being launched by Iran before the Israeli ground offensive kicks off.

Current call ups indicate that the time for ground ops is fast approaching. To properly clear out Hezbollah from the region south of the Litiani River, ground forces have to go in. The decimation of Hezbollah’s command and control of recent days, combined with the aggressive air campaign to prepare the battlefield will greatly assist the ground assault. There will be pockets of die hard Hezbollah jihadis, but the likelihood that they will receive any support from other units are slim and will be defeated in detail.

Israel will continue to increase targeting of Hezbollah strategic systems - primarily guided and ballistic missiles - stationed further north in Lebanon. Again, loss of command and control has left operators without orders and in their efforts to try to contact higher headquarters - very prone to SIGINT detection and other OPSEC failures.

Iran –

News that the commanders of the Iranian army and the Revolutionary Guards were convened for an urgent and special meeting at his residence. Additional unconfirmed, but likely, reports are thatchy have fled to underground bunkers.

Iran is debating how to respond, on the one hand it must avenge the death of Hassan Nasrallah, but on the other hand it is still afraid of a regional war and that Israel may destroy its oil industry and nuclear facilities.

OBSERVATION - Iran is facing what was once considered inconceivable. The crumbling of Hezbollah and the willingness of Israel to strike targets once thought to be protected has thrown war plans into disarray. Israel’s demonstration in April of the ease they could destroy key Iranian targets weighs heavily too.

Misc of Note –

Hurricane Helene wreaking havoc in the southeast. Stay safe and heed warnings.

Globalism / Great Reset –

John Kerry says, “It is harder to build consensus today” because the 1st Amendment blocks the censorship of “disinformation.”

OBSERVATION - Lurch has problems with the First Amendment apparently. The cries of the necessity to censor “disinformation” have been increasingly on the rise throughout the globalist realm as well in the US political. Following Orwell.

Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Sep 21, 2024 due to threat to shoot down Trump.

RUMINT - (via X) Former Navy SEAL Shawn Ryan warns Joe Rogan that the Taliban is funneling terrorists into the U.S. through the southern border with plans for “October 7th-style attacks.”

OBSERVATION - This assessment has a degree of plausibility given the vast numbers of potential islamic fanatics (in the hundreds of thousands) that are believed to have come across the border in the past four years and the demonstrated, asymmetrical attack strategies they have employed in the past. Relatively small teams of around half a dozen men have caused a lot of damage in Europe and Russia in the past years. Imagine 10 (or more) such teams in the US!

Still a heavy thought with a normalcy biased mindset, but 100% plausible in today’s biden dumpster fire.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Over 700 Tennessee National Guard Soldiers Deploy to Kuwait

NOTE this is leaving Tennessee short handed in dealing with the ongoing floods.

Cyber attacks/warfare – Moderate ALERT as of Sep 1, 2024

The private information of almost one-third of the population of the United States has been leaked following a security lapse within a major corporation responsible for conducting background checks.

The affected company, MC2 Data, provides background check services. The company collects, organizes and analyzes data from a vast range of public sources, such as criminal records, employment histories, family data and contact details.

Cyber News reported that the total number of people affected by the data breach is 106,316,633. MC2 is being accused of leaving a database with 2.2 terabytes worth of information without a password and readily accessible on the open web, raising serious concerns regarding the ability of MC2 Data to protect the privacy and safety of people it conducts background searches on.

People and organizations who require background check services from MC2 Data have also been exposed. The data of 2,319,873 users subscribed to MC2 Data services was also leaked.

https://www.naturalnews.com/2024-09-27-data-leak-exposes-private-info-100m-americans.html

OBSERVATION - Megabreaches like this have become common over the past couple years. I expect the globalist side of world domination to try to weave these breaches into arguments for biometrical based digital ID’s in the near future. Yep, creating the problem then coming up with the solution they want.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 70s and fair.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukrainian drones attacked an airfield in Yeysk, Russia, where Kinzhal ballistic missiles might have been stored, according to Russian media. Explosions were also heard near a power plant in Volgodonsk, and an ammunition depot was likely hit in the village of Kotluban. In Voronezh, debris from a downed drone struck a residential building. Meanwhile, Russia’s Ministry of Defense claimed to have intercepted and destroyed 125 drones.

Ukrainian air defense shot down 15 of 22 Shahed-type drones overnight

Russia launched record 1312 Shahed-type drones during last 30 days, twice as much as any previous peak. Though likely using stockpiled drones in previous periods, just fixed all logistics issues. Also steady increase in usage of glide bombs, with a peak of 841 during 7 days.

Russian Ministry of Defense claimed full occupation of Makiivka village in Luhansk region of Ukraine

Outlook —

Russia is failing to retake Kursk - no movement in days there.

Russian attacks along the entire Donbas front over the past week were large and largely unsuccessful, with high personnel and equipment losses.

Both sided continue the drone wars with large numbers of attacks daily. Russia seems to be withholding its stock of more advanced ballistic and cruise missile for another large, future combined strike.

Russia’s threats of nuclear strikes earlier in week seem to have had the desired results in stopping momentum to give Ukraine the green light for deep strikes using western munitions.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Nasrallah’s replacement has already been reported as being killed in airstrikes.

- Limited recons into Lebanon by Israeli special ops reportedly occurred overnight.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

October 2, Rosh Hashana, the Jewish New Year,

Israeli Army Radio announces the assassination of Nasrallah’s advisor Samir Tawfiq Deeb. And the assassination of Nasrallah’s security unit chief Ibrahim Eini.

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Activity levels still continue at fairly low levels.

Since Sinwar has ceased communications with Hamas elements, only one minor rocket shooting occurred in Gaza over the last two weeks. Raises further questions about his health or death.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

The IDF says: “We are focused on weakening Hezbollah day after day. Every day the war plan focuses on something else - so that Hezbollah will be on the way down. We have another considerable basket of tools - to create conditions for the return of residents to the north. They are also working to kill the people who will now replace Nasrallah .”
RELATED - Hezbollah’s new leader, Kassan Khalil Yassin, who just replaced Hassan Nasrallah hours ago, has been killed by the IDF.

ABC reports Israeli Small-scale operations or “border movements” into Lebanon to take out Hezbollah positions right on the border have begun or are about to.

Reports Israel has commenced ground force operations into Lebanon, likely initial SF Ops and reconnaissance. A larger ground offensive is very possible whilst the Hezbollah command and control capability is significantly incapacitated

The Israeli Defense Force has begun or is about to begin a limited ground operation against Hezbollah in Lebanon, according to multiple US officials, with armored vehicles and troops reportedly entering southern Lebanon in several areas along the border.

IDF forces are deployed on the Northern border

Reuters: The body of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah was recovered from the site of the strike in the southern suburb.

RUMINT. Iran is preparing to send troops to Lebanon in the coming days, per NBC reports.

PRE GROUND ATTACK INDICATORS

- Recons penetrating into Lebanon by Israeli Special Ops.

- Israeli forces are deployed along the border and no longer in assembly areas.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Syria: area of Yafour, in West Damascus province, and close to the Lebanese border was bombed by Israel. Target still undisclosed.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

The pro-Iranian militias in Iraq claim that they attacked a “vital target” in Eilat this morning with a UAV.
This is the second time within 6 hours they claim to have sent a UAV towards Eilat.

——— FORECAST ————————-

(ISW) Observers are noting that Hezbollah appears to be suffering from temporary organizational paralysis, as it has not responded to Israel in any meaningful way and has failed to stop Israel from targeting its key leadership or to take the necessary steps to protect that leadership.

By my observations, the next phase of the Israeli operation, being a ground assault, is imminent. Strong probability of special ops forces now operating in S Lebanon indicate time is short for the offensive to start. Israel’s continued hits on Hezbollah leadership and comms has maintained the confusion of the remaining Hezbollah forces, keeping them very vulnerable to the Israeli ground assault.

Hezbollah response to the death of Nasrallah continues to be uncoordinated and generally weak. Remember, Hezbollah had the capability to launch thousands of rockets a day into Israel, now reduced to less than 100. Hezbollah’s strategic guided ballistic missile forces in N Lebanon have been largely silent and under the eyes of Israeli intel to be blown up like the other elements. Again, no command authority to tell them what to do.

Iran continues to show evidence of not willing to do anything overt to give the Israelis reason to take out their oil and nuclear ambitions and infrastructure. The rumored dispatch of troops to Lebanon is highly sketchy and fraught with hazards. If they attempt to bring in by plane - Israel will shoot it down. If by ground, columns of transport vehicles would also be a juicy target for Israeli jet bombers. These Iranian forces would essentially be light foot soldiers, lacking any armor.

Syria is a potential helper, however, its forces are struggling to eliminate resistance in the Idlib region as well as keep ISIS at bay. A decade of civil war has stretched it forces out to the point where they rely on Iranian and Russian direct combat support.

Iraq based Iranian militias along with the Houthi in Yemen have attempted to step up their game. They lack the volume and quality of weapons to be a serious threat to Israel. Their attacks have mostly been at a level of annoyance.

In summary, we will be seeing the Israeli invasion into S Lebanon and the Bekkaa valley very, very soon. Netanyahu is in full honey badger mode and the momentum gained the past couple weeks will not be wasted. Once the ground invasion kicks off, Iran will be faced with another decision point - to more directly involve the country in the fight and to what extent.

Iran –

New York Times: Khamenei’s emergency meeting after Nasrallah’s killing saw divisions over how to respond.

Israel PM Netanyahu says “there is no place in Iran that we cannot reach”

***
Analysts / observers are noting that Iran is having a difficult time coming to grips with the Israeli hit on Beirut. Some conservative factions want immediate, militarily responses no matter the cost while reformist Pezeshkian, rseeks to de-escalate tensions with the U.S. and lift sanctions, warned against a harsh and quick response, urging caution to avoid falling into what he claims is Netanyahu’s trap –a bid to provoke a regional war.

Moderate council members expressed during the meeting that Israel has “crossed all red lines,” while voicing concerns that an Iranian attack on Israel might invite a direct counterstrike against critical infrastructure within the Islamic Republic. Given its current economic fragility, they argued, Iran cannot afford such a confrontation.

Analysts consulting with the New York Times suggested that Khamenei’s remarks indicate that Iran currently lacks an effective strategy to counter Israel’s assaults on its proxies. “Faced with the choice between full-scale war with Israel and ‘lowering its profile’ for self-preservation, it seems to opt for the latter,” they wrote.

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/rjvubdlcc#autoplay

Iraq -

Saudi report: “All Iraqi security forces have entered a state of maximum alertness, there is an expectation of imminent Israeli attacks in Iraq.”

Syria -

U.S. airstrikes on Syria kill 37 militants affiliated with Iranian extremist groups

An unidentified drone has targeted a military convoy belonging to the IRGC militias near the town of Al-Quriyah in eastern Deir ez-Zur countryside.

Over night airstrikes hit several IRGC-linked positions in Deir Ezzor city and area of Abukemal. An air defense position also possibly targeted.Many dead reported, including foreign fighters. Bombardment was likely carried out by US, following attack on the US Conoco base

Misc of Note –

Remnants of Helene still battering the southeast. Be alert and safe out there.
This storm should serve as a dramatic reminder that you are your own first responder in disasters.

New week starting out rough for those in the SE US.

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024

Longshoremen negotiators informed the press on Sunday that talks have stalled and that the October 1 strike is going to happen Tuesday. Retailers brace for what is expected to be massive shortages affecting multiple industries.
The strike could shut down 36 ports from Maine to Texas that handle about half the goods shipped into and out of the United States. West Coast dockworkers belong to a different union and aren’t involved in the strike.

A prolonged strike would force companies to pay shippers for the delays, and goods could arrive too late for the high point of the holiday shopping season.

Jonathan Gold, vice president of supply chain and customs policy at the National Retail Federation states “A dockworkers’ strike could prove even more damaging than the pandemic-induced port congestion in 2021 and 2022, when cargo was allowed to move, albeit slowly. Eastern ports could be left at a standstill. Gold noted that carriers are already announcing surcharges on containers to address potential disruptions, a trend that could elevate inflation.

https://conservativeplaylist.com/the-port-strike-is-happening/

OBSERVATION - Red danger lights are flashing, especially if this strike is prolonged. Besides passing container surcharges to consumers will come the increased prices due to supply shortages. It will also drift over into the rail and trucking markets who’ve ramped up post wuhan now facing no cargo to deliver. Then any wage increases (IIRC something in the neighborhood of 30% - please check me on that) will also be migrated down to consumers via higher prices.
An earlier question - will this trigger a recession? If prolonged (multiple weeks) it could further accelerate the economy in that direction. On a longer term, the overall increased costs will pressure higher inflation and leveraged against an already weakened market and economy - not good news if we enter (or continue in) a recession.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The U.S. military said Sunday that it’s increasing its air support capabilities in the Middle East and putting troops on a heightened readiness to deploy to the region as it warned Iran against expanding the ongoing conflict.
The announcement came two days after President Joe Biden directed the Pentagon to adjust U.S. force posture in the Middle East amid intensifying concern that Israel’s killing of the leader of Iran-backed Hezbollah could prompt Tehran to retaliate.

“The United States is determined to prevent Iran and Iranian-backed partners and proxies from exploiting the situation or expanding the conflict,” Pentagon spokesperson Major General Patrick Ryder said in a statement.

https://www.newsmax.com/us/us-military-middle-east/2024/09/29/id/1182154/

Under the orders of Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, additional U.S. Military Units at Bases in the United States and Europe have been raised to a High State of Readiness, with them directed to prepare for Deployment to the Middle East.

The U.S. Department of Defense has announced that due to heightened tension in the region, the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) and her carrier strike group as well as the Wasp Amphibious Ready Group have been ordered to remain in the Middle East; while Squadrons of F-22, F-15E, F-16 and A-10 Combat Aircraft have increased their presence at airbases in the region, with a further reinforcement of defensive air-support capabilities said to be coming in the next few days.

POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
Debates ???

Vance/walz - Oct. 1

**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****

***

Rumint. New leaks indicate that Tim Walz is in shambles and considering backing out of the debate altogether.
NOTE - this could also be a psyops ploy to lower expectations and lure Vance into a false sense of security too.

Moderators for the VP debate have been vocal in saying that they will not ‘fact check’ either one. This has caused the left to go into convulsions.

***
Entering the period of the nefarious “October Surprise” zone. Warning - turbulence ahead.

Biden / Harris Watch –

Biden just said there will be NO ADDITIONAL RESOURCES given to the areas pummeled by Hurricane Helene

Biden on Hurricane Helene:
Reporter: “Do you have any words to the victims of the hurricane?”
Biden: “We’ve given everything that we have.”
Reporter “Are there any more resources the federal government could be giving them?”
Biden: “No.”

***
Reporter: “Any comment on the strikes in Yemen?”

Biden: “I’ve spoken to both sides. They gotta settle the strike. I’m supporting the collective bargaining effort. I think they’ll settle the strike.”

Illegal Immigration –

The total cost of illegal immigration under President Joe Biden’s administration would be equivalent to the gross domestic product of the 36th largest economy in the world, according to a report from late last year that’s now getting attention on social media.

Illegal immigration under President Joe Biden’s administration has cost the country an estimated $451 billion per year, according to a report released by House Republicans in November 2023.

https://wokespy.com/cost-of-illegal-immigration-equivalent-to-36th-largest-economy-in-the-world/

***
On Friday, the same day that Kamala Harris had her photo op at the southern border, where she pretended to take the issue of border security seriously, the Biden-Harris Justice Department announced that it is suing the state of Alabama for its efforts to remove illegal immigrants from its voter rolls.

https://pjmedia.com/matt-margolis/2024/09/28/after-kamalas-border-visit-biden-harris-admin-sues-to-keep-illegals-on-voter-rolls-n4932917#google_vignette

OBSERVATION - Isn’t this administration and affiliated democrats dogmatically asserting that illegals aren’t registered to vote because it is illegal?

Phillipines –

The Philippines held a joint patrol in the South China Sea that included forces from Japan, Australia, the U.S. and New Zealand on Saturday.

The joint patrol was the fourth multilateral maritime cooperative activity held to date. Participants included BRP Antonio Luna (FF-151) , BRP Emilio Jacinto (PS-35) USS Howard (DDG-83), HMAS Sydney (DDG-42) , JS Sazanami (DD-113) and HMNZS Aotearoa (A-11). Naval aviation, including three helicopters and one Royal Australian Air Force P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft, also joined the exercise. Activities, which included drills in maritime domain awareness, replenishment at sea and contact reporting, were held near the vicinity of the Philippine exclusive economic zone off Luzon.

The Australian, Japanese, and New Zealander vessels participating in the drills previously sailed through the Taiwan Strait on Wednesday to reach the South China Sea. This was the first time a Japanese ship was announced transiting the 90–mile wide strait separating Taiwan and China.

Armed Forces of the Philippines chief Gen. Romeo Brawner said the patrol was in line with international law and affirmed the right of freedom of navigation and overflight.

https://news.usni.org/2024/09/29/warships-from-the-philippines-australia-new-zealand-u-s-and-japan-sail-in-joint-south-china-sea-patrol

OBSERVATION - Chinese aggression in the region has resulted in negative consequences for it as new military alliances are forming among countries to counter Chinese efforts to capture islands in the S China Sea region.

Russia -

Kerch Bridge update –

Russia has been investing a considerable amount of resources in increasing the protection of the bridge from Ukraine attack. It is the only real avenue of resupply to most of Russian forces in southern Ukraine and Crimea. Should Ukraine take it out, supply issues would become severe by orders of magnitude.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 70s and fair.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

The Ukrainian Air Force reported on another russian missile and drone attack
Shot down:
0/1 Iskander-M ballistic missile
1/1 Kh-59/69 cruise missile
0/1 Kh-31P anti-radar missile
67/73 Shahed drones
One more Shahed flew back to Belarus, three more were lost on Ukrainian territory due to electronic warfare measures.

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Nelipivka in Donetsk region of Ukraine

Russia continues to press across the whole length of the front in the Donbas Region.

Outlook —

Action is relatively static across the fronts. Russian still throwing attacks along the Donbas portions of the front with very little return on the men/equipment losses they are facing. Recent battalion sized attacks by Russia over the weekend failed with dozens of armored vehicles damaged or destroyed.

Ukraine appears to be shifting to more sustained defensive operations. Very little action by either side in Kursk or Kharkiv areas.

Russian still has a lot of Shahed drones to throw at Ukraine, but not doing very significant damage.

Europe / NATO General –

EU holds meeting to discuss latest escalation in Lebanon

***
Austria’s far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) has opened the door to a new era, its leader Herbert Kickl has told supporters, as they celebrated an unprecedented election victory.

Kickl’s party won 29.2% of the vote according to provisional results - almost three points ahead of the conservative People’s Party (ÖVP) on 26.5%, but far short of a majority.
Kickl’s victory is only the latest in a string of far-right election successes in Europe and he praised voters for their “optimism, courage and trust” in delivering a “piece of history”.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Nasrallah funeral today
- IAF destroys two key Houthi ports, cutting off critical fuel and food imports
- More and more Hamas, hezbollah and Iranian military leaders taken out
- Israeli armored forces poised at jumpopff locations olong the Lebanese border.

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Activity levels still continue at fairly low levels.

An apparent uptick in airstrikes throughout Gaza.

Head of Hamas in Lebanon, Fateh Sherif Abu el-Amin, was eliminated. He was the successor of Saleh Arouri, previous head of Hamas in Lebanon, who was eliminated earlier this year.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Israel appeared to be gearing up for a ground invasion of Lebanon as hundreds of tanks massed on the country’s northern border. Soldiers carrying wrenches made final preparations to their armoured vehicles as plumes of smoke rose from wildfires started by Hezbollah rockets

The IDF attacked dozens of launchers and buildings where weapons were stored in the Beqaa in Lebanon. In addition, fighter jets attacked in various areas in southern Lebanon, military buildings used by the terrorist organization Hezbollah for terrorist activities against the State of Israel.

IAF airstrike levels slightly lower than recent days. This still places nearly 200 targets being hit overnight.

The IDF estimates: Hezbollah is firing rockets at Israel to the extent of about 10% of the original planning in its war plans.
The reasons offered by the IDF for the relatively limited firing:
1. Shooting capabilities were partially damaged
2. Significant damage to commanders and difficulties in command and control
3. Confusion in decision-making in an organization that is preoccupied with its survival

***
Lebanon premier says ready to implement UN Resolution 1701. Lebanon to deploy army on Lebanon border in event of ceasefire

Naim Qassem: - Israel will not be able to strike our military capabilities, as they are strong, we have full readiness, and we will continue with human and military capabilities. What we are doing is the minimum as part of the battle plan, according to our assessment, the drawn plans, and what the field requires. We will choose a Secretary-General for the party as soon as possible

Hashem Safieddine, Hezbollah’s new leader
He previously wasn’t deemed important enough to have a pager or communication device, to be invited to any meeting of the top command, or to be present in Nasrallah’s bunker.

GROUND OFFENSIVE INDICATORS
- Israeli troops and tanks were last night seen gathering in the north, on their border with southern Lebanon, in apparent preparation for a ground invasion.
The last time Israel launched a ground offensive of Lebanon was in 2006, when 34 days of intense cross-border fighting with Hezbollah ended in a stalemate.
- Air strikes taking on a more CAS pattern in S Lebanon.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Syria: last night an Israeli airstrike targeted a 2-story building in area of Yafous border crossing with Lebanon. Casualties are reported. Reports the target was a Hezbollah member overseeing transport of Hezbollah fighters across the border. He was presumably killed

Bloomberg, citing a source: Iran is trying to transfer thousands of fighters to the border areas of Lebanon and Syria

Arab Reports:
The regime has lost contact with Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad’s brother Maher after the Israeli Air Force struck his villa near Damascus overnight.
A meeting with Iranian leaders was taking place in the villa. Maher is the commander of the Syrian Army’s 4th Division.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

IAF hit Houthi controlled ports in Yemen in retaliation for recent attacks by ballistic missiles and drones.

In the attack, the air force hit two ports - Hudaydah and Ras Issa - both of which have fuel terminals. Unlike the previous attack in July that only targeted the port of Hodeidah - this time both were hit.
Hudaydah is Yemen’s fourth largest city. Serious implications for the civilian population. The port is a lifetime for aid, food and power.
The IDF assesses: the attack in Yemen no longer allows the Houthis to bring in fuel by sea - this is a significant damage to their ability to sustain the terrorist system.

Unconfirmed reports that Mohammed Abdulsalam, the spokesperson of the Yemeni Houthi terror oganization, was killed in a helicopter accident en route from Yemen to Tehran.

Houthi called for peace and end to escalating conflict following Israel’s strikes on two ports.

Sources associated with the Houthis in Yemen report the downing of another American MQ-9 drone in the Saada district. The 11th American drone that the Houthis have shot down

——— FORECAST ————————-

Airstrike pattern and ground forces positioning strongly indicate a soon assault into S Lebanon. Previously, high intensity air strikes focused on the ‘strategic’ missile assets of Hezbollah as well as incredible number of hits on leadership. See the comments on Hashem Safieddine, the new leader of Hezbollah, to see just how far down the totem pole they’ve had to go. Analysts are trying to say that Hezbollah will successfully restore their leadership core as well as command and control - but I seriously doubt that in the present fight. Israel has the initiative and Hezbollah has to respond with untried leaders and poor command and control conditions.

Supporters of Hezbollah are dragging out the 100,000 man army they have reportedly still have. With all the airstrikes, attrition of that number is very probably equivalent to the attrition of the 150,000 rockets and missiles claimed at the start of the war. Destruction of Hezbollah high command got all the attention, while casualties to these forces have largely been underreported. The other matter is that these forces are light and now sorely lack the cover of massive rocket barrages the Hezbollah hoped would deter Israeli actions. Nearly one year to soften up Hezbollah defenses and not the more direct attacks in preparation for the ground assault, these forces are in even more dire conditions. Gone are the report of ATGM fire on Israel troops and towns.

I still anticipate the ground offensive to kick off this week. The impact of Rosh Hashana is a controlling factor IMHO.

Hamas is dropping off the threat radar fast as they’ve essentially ceased to be an effective force, now attrited down to squad sized elements with fewer places to hide and fewer weapons available. Many still attribute this to the silence from Sinwar, who could be seriously injured or dead. The biggest focus are search efforts to find any of the hostages dead or preferably alive.

Yemen got served another lesson overnight. Those ports served as a lifetime for aid, food and power. Its gonna hurt in the long run.

It is a lesson not lost to Iran, again, that Israel can easily strike its vulnerable oil and nuclear programs. The losses of effective Hamas and Hezbollah elements has created a gaping hole in Iran’s regional posture and defenses. The big question is who is going to win out in the argument over whether to respond and how big - the hardliners or the more ‘moderate’ new president. So far Pezeshkian is holding sway, but that can change in a literal heartbeat.

Currently Iran is now behind on two ‘revenges’. The next potential action window by Iran may be the actual ground assault phase by Israel. That will be the last act of desperation by Hezbollah.

Besides missile and drone threats, Iran keeps rumbling about sending forces to Syria to stage into either Lebanon or Israel. IRGC does have a lot of forces in Syria supporting Assad and engaged in N Syria against anti-Assad strongholds such as Idlib. As noted below under Syria, such a shift could create problems for Syria. Second, the movement of large forces and their equipment will be easily seen and addressed via indicatory strikes.

Lebanon’s govt is now starting to exert itself into the Hezbollah / Israel fight and would eventually be more helpful to Israel than the Hezzies. With the severe damage inflicted on Hezbollah, Lebanon’s army is in a better position to enforce disarmament and UN resolution 1701. It has been outmanned and out gunned by Hezbollah and unable to enforce 1701. I could even see an initial period of joint operations with Israel ground forces after Hezbollah’s been kicked out of the south. The military threat to the Lebanese govt maintained by Hezbollah is going away and many see the Israeli operation as a ‘liberation’ of the country.

Finally, the “Islamic Resistance” will be getting some more munitions from Iran. In the instance of the Houthis, now those munitions may not be delivered in a timely manner. The Iraqi govt may pressure the Iranian backed militias to stand down to avoid US or Israeli strikes. Both suggest that Iran’s proxy ‘shields’ are beginning to fail.

Iran –

Iranians are calling on Pezeshkian to resign over the decision not to retaliate assassination of Ismael Haniyeh. They believe this is what caused the Martyrdom of Nasrallah.

Syria -

The ongoing collapse of Hezbollah is looking to potentially threaten Bashar al-Assad’s hold on Syria.

Hezbollah forces played a part in some of the most brutal chapters of the Syrian civil war, including sieges that starved encircled communities for months, as well as operations that expelled many Sunni Muslims, who were the backbone of the anti-Assad revolt, from neighborhoods and towns.

Assad only barely managed to prevail in the long and bloody Syrian civil war, even with help from Hezbollah, Iran, and Russia. Russia now has another bloody war and quagmire in Ukraine, and probably can’t help out if a Hezbollah collapse triggers another popular uprising. Iran might have to take the field directly, but that would risk triggering a direct conflict with Israel, as they would first need to secure their position in Lebanon by reconstituting Hezbollah as their proxy.

If Assad starts looking wobbly, Ali Khamenei can’t afford to ignore that threat. If Syria slips away from Iran’s orbit, they will have almost no way to project power in the region.

https://hotair.com/ed-morrissey/2024/09/28/how-long-can-this-puppet-last-without-hezbollah-n3795118

OBSERVATION - This a secondary benefit of the ongoing defeat of Hezbollah. In Syria, even the IRGC is vulnerable to the IAF, and Israel watches that threat very closely. While Assad has had some time to regroup since the onset of civil war, he is in no way ready to deal directly with Israel.

Misc of Note –

Damage and other losses from the after affects of Hurricane Helene are staggering - particularly in N Carolina and Tennessee. 67 reported dead and over 1000 thousand missing. Vast portions of Western N Carolina continue to be cut off as FEMA and state agencies struggle to get teams and relief supplies to affected individuals.

Now biden is on record saying no further help is coming (see Biden/Harris watch above)

The disaster scenario has created a stark contrast between long time residents (hillbilly rednecks) who have a generally prepper mindset and figure that they are their own first responders versus a large number of leftists who’ve converged on and essentially converted Asheville NC into a clone of Berkeley CA. The newcomers not only ridiculed the cultural preparedness mind set, but now have been demanding that the long term locals turn over supplies to them.

Special note - Locals are not looting grocery stores but have the wherewithal to know that stores will get what they got to the people. Videos on social media show them calmly waiting in line for their turn to go into the local stores.
On a similar note - looters have been out and (surprise) many have been illegals piped into the regions by biden et al. That looting has been so far minimal is due to a strong 2A culture. The warning of “if you loot, we shoot” is paying off to some extent.

FEMA is not at its best and is failing to tap the full resources to get relief and rescue those trapped / hurt. Active duty bases are wondering why calls for military helicopters and logistics support units haven’t been made. Civilians responding to calls for help with helicopters have been grounded in many places by FEMA, along with resistance to elements of the Cajun Navy what deployed to the region.
NOTE - Biden telling them no more assistance is coming.

Urgent thing to know - DO NOT DONATE TO THE RED CROSS! Samaritans Purse or the Southern Baptist emergency funds are a far more responsive and effective organizations with your money and resources. If you know of local churches or organizations meeting the needs, fund them first. as well. Red Cross will reject local food support for those in RC shelters because it doesn’t come from authorized sources - they have forced the refugees to choose between eating or having shelter in past disasters. They also have taken donations and redirected them to non-disaster operations.

Also note - churches that have hosted RC shelters have had their ability to minister to the refugees denied because the pastors there are not from their ‘approved’ ministerial lists. And they dictate other items often contrary to the host churches.

Final note - some stories about some caught in the disaster complaining that they didn’t have the resources to get out of harms way. Folks it isn’t that complicated but you need to do some low to no cost stubby pencil work.

1 Identify the potential disasters (fire, flood, earthquake) you may face
2 Identify if you are in those zones
3 Begin to identify family / friends who live out side those area who would be willing to take you in.
4 Identify evacuation routes (plural) and plan on leaving as soon as there is evidence that a disaster is enroute (evacuation warnings, other developments) to avoid getting caught in crowds
5 Have ‘bug out’ bags, food, important papers, items, etc identified and ready to grab and go. Update on an annual basis
6 Set aside a cash stash to handle immediate expenses.

Yep, some may scoff at you, but if the disaster should strike, you’ll be safe while they wait for rescue from some roof top. Your planning has to be looked at on a long term basis. As many found out, when the crisis hits, the time for preparation is over and survival kicks in.

This week is developing into another wild one. Keep alert

Globalism / Great Reset –

Lurch’s recent comments to the WEF continue to echo around the interwebs. It is clear that the globalist left that he is affiliated with (as well as those other ‘progressives’ in the US) have one thing in mind - gutting or eliminating all together the US constitution. The 1A is a critical reflection to what the british attempted to impose on the states in the early stages of the war. Ben Franklin and others had to set up clandestine printing presses to get the news out that the british forbid. In today’s scenario, the globalists are trying to institute the same censorship by growing brute force/power to force competing views off the air and internet.

Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Sep 21, 2024 due to threat to shoot down Trump.

Word that there is some sort of group slashing trucker tires at stops along I-40 in Tennessee. Upwards of 50 trucks have been reportedly affected.

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024

Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said on Monday that interest rates may fall to a level that neither restricts nor boosts the economy, though officials are not in a rush to cut rates.

Why it matters: For now it looks likely that the U.S. economy could avoid a recession as inflation plunges and the labor market remains healthy. Powell signaled that lower rates could help guarantee a so-called “soft landing,” but some risks remain.
What he’s saying: “Looking forward, if the economy evolves broadly as expected, policy will move over time toward a more neutral stance,” Powell said in Nashville, Tenn. at a conference hosted by the National Association for Business Economics.

“Neutral” refers to the level of interest rates that does not restrain economic activity, but does not jumpstart the economy either.
Powell, however, added that the Fed is not on a “preset course.”

https://www.axios.com/2024/09/30/powell-fed-lower-interest-rates-economy

OBSERVATION - A lot of hopium in the statement. Inflation is not ‘plunging’ but in many sectors is starting to rise again. Jobs is a primary concern, not reflecting a ‘heathy’ market.

***
Dockworkers strike is expected to start today.

WH saying that the impact from the impending strike of dock workers on the east / gulf coast will be ‘limited’.

Follow up from yesterday, I misstated the wage demands of the dock workers, it wasn’t 30% but a whopping 80% wage increase.

OBSERVATION - First round of October ‘surprises’ . This strike has the potential to create severe problems for the economy.

POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
Debates ???

Vance/walz - Oct. 1

**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****

***

Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) are scheduled to participate in a VP debate at 9pm ET at the CBS Broadcast Center in New York.

***
In a letter to Homeland Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, House Oversight Chair James Comer (R-KY) said a whistleblower came forward to the House Oversight Committee alleging serious concern among Department of Homeland Security (DHS) personnel about long standing connections between the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz.

OBSERVATION - Like most of the investigations done the past couple years, this will go no where as Mayorkas will ignore then drag his feet in releasing the material, especially before the election. No accountability.

Biden / Harris Watch –

they both are getting all kinds of heat over the nature and effectiveness of the Helene flooding response.

Cyber attacks/warfare – Moderate ALERT as of Sep 1, 2024

Alerts going out concerning more aggressive Iranian hacking of govt and political party sites and info.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 70s and fair.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight, 29 shahed drones were launched into Ukraine. 26 of them were shot down, and 3 more were lost in Ukrainian territory likely due to to EW measures.

Russian forces have advanced deeper inside Vuhledar to the most northwestern part of the city. In addition to our report yesterday, it is now quite safe to assume Ukraine no longer holds any presence inside Vuhledar.

Ukraine Kursk Offensive-

Russian has renewed counter attacks on Ukrainian forces.

Outlook —

Vuhledar has been a front line city for most of the past three plus years. Like many other gains, Russia’s impending capture has been pyrrhic in the losses of men and material.

Russia is also pressing along the rest of the Donbas front, nibbling out small gains in various sectors.

I expect Russia to continue to press hard to capture and consolidate territory before the winter season arrives.

Wild cards still in play are the drone/missile wars by both sides.

Europe / NATO General –

New NATO Secretary General Rutte says Ukraine is top of the list on his priorities as the new head of the military alliance. Says “we have to make sure it prevails as an independent and sovereign nation”

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Israel begins limited ground operations in S Lebanon

- All public events at the Western Wall have been cancelled.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

October 2, Rosh Hashana, the Jewish New Year,

Israeli Security Cabinet ministers were not happy that the Americans leaked Israel’s plan to enter Lebanon today.

American Defense Minister Lloyd Austin spoke overnight with Israel’s Defense Minister Galant and issued a statement supporting the IDF’s ground operation in southern Lebanon: “We agreed on the need to dismantle attack infrastructure along the border, to ensure that Hezbollah cannot carry out October 7-style attacks on Israel’s northern settlements.”

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Israel continues to hit regroupings of Hamas et al fighters.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Overnight Israel continued the massive air campaign in the hundreds of targets being hit, some key ones were -

- 7-10 blasts in Beirut on weapon depots stored under residential buildings

- Attacks in Tyre and Sidon

- 3 attacks in Damascus. The IDF conducted precise strikes on weapons manufacturing sites and infrastructure belonging to Hezbollah in Dahieh in Beirut

- Air strikes hitting radars in Syria

Overnight, Israel initiated what they call ‘limited’ operations in S Lebanon. Evacuation notices were sent out to border villages, reportedly unusual in scope: Dozens of villages in southern Lebanon are called to evacuate
IDF:

“Hezbollah had prepared to use those villages — as staging grounds for an October 7-style invasion…into Israeli homes.

An Israeli security official declined to specify how deep the forces had penetrated Lebanese territory, saying only that they were “close” to the border.

The Washington Post, citing an Israeli official: There were no reports of clashes between the army forces that entered Lebanon and Hezbollah militants.

Israeli army: We uncovered plans to invade the Galilee in Hezbollah tunnels. The current operation has exposed several underground offensive tunnels in southern Lebanon.

The Lebanese Army has pulled back 5km from the border, according to local media outlets.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Israel targeted radar positions and air defense systems in the Daraa and Sawida area and Al-Thaala Military Airport in the Syrian province of Sweida. These attacks are a SEAD operation to blind Syria and Hezbollah to operations in the south.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Follow up to the recent Israeli airstrike.
Reports from Houthi-controlled Yemen indicate that all three power stations have been completely destroyed by Israel’s attack yesterday. For the foreseeable future, Houthi-controlled Yemen will be totally out of electricity

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Russia calls on Israel to withdraw its forces from Lebanon

——— FORECAST ————————-

The ground war is commencing in a manner different from that against Gaza. To understand we have to go to a pre-Oct 7 scenario and planning of Hamas/Hezbollah and Iran to conduct a surprise attack into Israel.

Hamas got too anxious and attacked early - attempting to gain the ‘glory’. Israel responded with a lot of troops being sent north instead of towards Gaza because they were aware of the plan and Hezbollah’s larger army was a greater threat.

Hezbollah for its part planned to use tunnels under the border originating from Lebanese border towns to infiltrate into Israel and facilitate rapid capture of Israeli border communities and of course, hostages. The rapid arrival of Israeli military units to the north stopped Hezbollah from executing this operation in support of Hamas.

Hezbollah had also prepared S Lebanon to be an obstacle to Israeli armored units. Construction of choke points and ATGM kill zones were at the top of the list as they were very effective in the 2008 fight. Defenses were based upon the assumption that Israel would not go pedal to the metal like they have and capitulate after heavy losses.

The ongoing ‘limited’ operations are designed to methodically clear the border village regions of Hezbollah forces and clear paths for a much larger armor push. The Israeli warnings to Lebanese to evacuate cities covers all of the territories south of the Litani River, meaning that Israel has it in its plans to move deep. These operations can also be considered to to be reconnaissance in force moves, similar to how Israel acted in Gaza. Once the way was clear and weaknesses identified, the hammer can fall.

Hezbollah had relied upon it ‘Radwan’ forces in S Lebanon for offense / defense. They were to be the shock troops of the surprised attack. The aggressive Israeli air campaign has forced many of these units northward. They are light, relying on ATGM for anti armor and did rely on rocket barrages for indirect fire support. That aspect has largely been stripped away.

With the stated military goal of making N Israel safe for citizens to return to, Israel is first working to eliminate the hezbollah tunnels and military preparations along the border. The next and larger phase is to push Hezbollah north of the Litiani River and out of rocket range for most of N Israel.

I expect to see the Israeli army exploit the gaps created by the initial forces and start to seriously push north this week. There will be a lot of external pressure on Israel not to execute this next phase, but Israel cannot attain its security goals without deeper control over lebanon.

Eyes continue to look at Iran’s options. Israel has made it abundantly clear to Iran - FAFO and Iran knows Israel can back up its warnings, whereas Iran so far has failed epically in its retaliations. Talk continues of Iran sending troops, but even that option is seemingly unlikely. US has expressed concerns that Iran may feel ‘forced’ into an April style attack, but once again, in doing so, they risk their nuclear and oil facilities. Israel is just looking for a reason to hit them, and Iran is largely unable to defend those facilities like they thought they were a year ago.

Lebanese forces are poised but I think they will keep their nose out of the scrum for now. The govt’s renewed willingness to enforce 1701 shows a big shift in the internal power struggle between Hezbollah and the rest of the country. Time will tell if Christian and none-Iranian militias will start taking action against Hezbollah. Israel has been very vocal to say the war is against Hezbollah and that Lebanon can be liberated from these terrorists. So far it seems that message is being positively received.

In summary, Israel will expand the ground ops as the week progresses. It will continue to target the ‘new’ leadership of Hezbollah as well as continue to destroy ammo dumps, production facilities, and other C3 assets.

Iran –

CNN quoting an American official: Washington believes that Iran will intervene in the conflict if it estimates that it is about to lose Hezbollah

***
Iran has said it will not send troops to Lebanon or Gaza, in a sign that Tehran does not want to immediately escalate its confrontation with Israel.
“There is no need to send extra or volunteer forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” a spokesman said, adding that fighters in Lebanon and the Palestinian territories “have the capability and strength to defend themselves against the aggression”.
Iran’s foreign ministry said it had not received any request for assistance from Hezbollah and that the group does “not need the help of our forces”.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/09/30/israel-hezbollah-hamas-war-gaza-latest-news/?fbclid=IwY2xjawFngTlleHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHRSdtT6DQfcWBsKevCBDwZ-Kn-EyYFhLJP-7bVKkBWXJEdbakNl0agoJ0Q_aem_80VWNsRXoiKPYKs6FYfYng

***
Rumint. Israel sent a message to Iran:
It will damage Iranian nuclear and oil facilities in the event that Iran intervenes directly in the escalation with Hezbollah.

Syria -

Iran-backed militias in Iraq reportedly launched missiles at the US Victoria Base near the Baghdad Airport tonight; the missile launch pad was apparently found in the Al-A’amiriya district of Baghdad, along with several Iranian-made Fajr 1 missiles that did not launch.

Misc of Note –

Helene preparation stories continue out there. And its a mess.

Water, many areas will not have clean water for months and possibly years. Prepping rule of “3” has at the top - 3 days without water and you will die. Pretty straight forward. key prep is to have multiple ways to store, procure and purify water. Research them - life straws, filtration methods, boiling, chlorine, etc.

Second key is the loss of cellular comms and with it internet. Cellular phone network (and, by extension, any non-wifi network connectivity your phone has) is going to first be overwhelmed, and then collapse entirely in any disaster, locally and perhaps even regionally, depending on scope and scale.

That means no phone calls are getting through. No texts. No nothing. Your mapping software may or may not work, depending on if it needs internet support vs. relying solely on its GPS lock.

Having alternative comms is essential. Stop relying on your cell phone to do everything for you. Get backup means in place now. If you don’t know how to use things, like the tried and tested Baofeng UV-5R, you better learn NOW.

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