Replies

This week is developing into another wild one. Keep alert

Globalism / Great Reset –

Lurch’s recent comments to the WEF continue to echo around the interwebs. It is clear that the globalist left that he is affiliated with (as well as those other ‘progressives’ in the US) have one thing in mind - gutting or eliminating all together the US constitution. The 1A is a critical reflection to what the british attempted to impose on the states in the early stages of the war. Ben Franklin and others had to set up clandestine printing presses to get the news out that the british forbid. In today’s scenario, the globalists are trying to institute the same censorship by growing brute force/power to force competing views off the air and internet.

Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Sep 21, 2024 due to threat to shoot down Trump.

Word that there is some sort of group slashing trucker tires at stops along I-40 in Tennessee. Upwards of 50 trucks have been reportedly affected.

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024

Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said on Monday that interest rates may fall to a level that neither restricts nor boosts the economy, though officials are not in a rush to cut rates.

Why it matters: For now it looks likely that the U.S. economy could avoid a recession as inflation plunges and the labor market remains healthy. Powell signaled that lower rates could help guarantee a so-called “soft landing,” but some risks remain.
What he’s saying: “Looking forward, if the economy evolves broadly as expected, policy will move over time toward a more neutral stance,” Powell said in Nashville, Tenn. at a conference hosted by the National Association for Business Economics.

“Neutral” refers to the level of interest rates that does not restrain economic activity, but does not jumpstart the economy either.
Powell, however, added that the Fed is not on a “preset course.”

https://www.axios.com/2024/09/30/powell-fed-lower-interest-rates-economy

OBSERVATION - A lot of hopium in the statement. Inflation is not ‘plunging’ but in many sectors is starting to rise again. Jobs is a primary concern, not reflecting a ‘heathy’ market.

***
Dockworkers strike is expected to start today.

WH saying that the impact from the impending strike of dock workers on the east / gulf coast will be ‘limited’.

Follow up from yesterday, I misstated the wage demands of the dock workers, it wasn’t 30% but a whopping 80% wage increase.

OBSERVATION - First round of October ‘surprises’ . This strike has the potential to create severe problems for the economy.

POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
Debates ???

Vance/walz - Oct. 1

**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****

****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****

***

Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) are scheduled to participate in a VP debate at 9pm ET at the CBS Broadcast Center in New York.

***
In a letter to Homeland Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, House Oversight Chair James Comer (R-KY) said a whistleblower came forward to the House Oversight Committee alleging serious concern among Department of Homeland Security (DHS) personnel about long standing connections between the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz.

OBSERVATION - Like most of the investigations done the past couple years, this will go no where as Mayorkas will ignore then drag his feet in releasing the material, especially before the election. No accountability.

Biden / Harris Watch –

they both are getting all kinds of heat over the nature and effectiveness of the Helene flooding response.

Cyber attacks/warfare – Moderate ALERT as of Sep 1, 2024

Alerts going out concerning more aggressive Iranian hacking of govt and political party sites and info.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 70s and fair.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight, 29 shahed drones were launched into Ukraine. 26 of them were shot down, and 3 more were lost in Ukrainian territory likely due to to EW measures.

Russian forces have advanced deeper inside Vuhledar to the most northwestern part of the city. In addition to our report yesterday, it is now quite safe to assume Ukraine no longer holds any presence inside Vuhledar.

Ukraine Kursk Offensive-

Russian has renewed counter attacks on Ukrainian forces.

Outlook —

Vuhledar has been a front line city for most of the past three plus years. Like many other gains, Russia’s impending capture has been pyrrhic in the losses of men and material.

Russia is also pressing along the rest of the Donbas front, nibbling out small gains in various sectors.

I expect Russia to continue to press hard to capture and consolidate territory before the winter season arrives.

Wild cards still in play are the drone/missile wars by both sides.

Europe / NATO General –

New NATO Secretary General Rutte says Ukraine is top of the list on his priorities as the new head of the military alliance. Says “we have to make sure it prevails as an independent and sovereign nation”

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Israel begins limited ground operations in S Lebanon

- All public events at the Western Wall have been cancelled.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

October 2, Rosh Hashana, the Jewish New Year,

Israeli Security Cabinet ministers were not happy that the Americans leaked Israel’s plan to enter Lebanon today.

American Defense Minister Lloyd Austin spoke overnight with Israel’s Defense Minister Galant and issued a statement supporting the IDF’s ground operation in southern Lebanon: “We agreed on the need to dismantle attack infrastructure along the border, to ensure that Hezbollah cannot carry out October 7-style attacks on Israel’s northern settlements.”

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Israel continues to hit regroupings of Hamas et al fighters.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Overnight Israel continued the massive air campaign in the hundreds of targets being hit, some key ones were -

- 7-10 blasts in Beirut on weapon depots stored under residential buildings

- Attacks in Tyre and Sidon

- 3 attacks in Damascus. The IDF conducted precise strikes on weapons manufacturing sites and infrastructure belonging to Hezbollah in Dahieh in Beirut

- Air strikes hitting radars in Syria

Overnight, Israel initiated what they call ‘limited’ operations in S Lebanon. Evacuation notices were sent out to border villages, reportedly unusual in scope: Dozens of villages in southern Lebanon are called to evacuate
IDF:

“Hezbollah had prepared to use those villages — as staging grounds for an October 7-style invasion…into Israeli homes.

An Israeli security official declined to specify how deep the forces had penetrated Lebanese territory, saying only that they were “close” to the border.

The Washington Post, citing an Israeli official: There were no reports of clashes between the army forces that entered Lebanon and Hezbollah militants.

Israeli army: We uncovered plans to invade the Galilee in Hezbollah tunnels. The current operation has exposed several underground offensive tunnels in southern Lebanon.

The Lebanese Army has pulled back 5km from the border, according to local media outlets.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Israel targeted radar positions and air defense systems in the Daraa and Sawida area and Al-Thaala Military Airport in the Syrian province of Sweida. These attacks are a SEAD operation to blind Syria and Hezbollah to operations in the south.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Follow up to the recent Israeli airstrike.
Reports from Houthi-controlled Yemen indicate that all three power stations have been completely destroyed by Israel’s attack yesterday. For the foreseeable future, Houthi-controlled Yemen will be totally out of electricity

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Russia calls on Israel to withdraw its forces from Lebanon

——— FORECAST ————————-

The ground war is commencing in a manner different from that against Gaza. To understand we have to go to a pre-Oct 7 scenario and planning of Hamas/Hezbollah and Iran to conduct a surprise attack into Israel.

Hamas got too anxious and attacked early - attempting to gain the ‘glory’. Israel responded with a lot of troops being sent north instead of towards Gaza because they were aware of the plan and Hezbollah’s larger army was a greater threat.

Hezbollah for its part planned to use tunnels under the border originating from Lebanese border towns to infiltrate into Israel and facilitate rapid capture of Israeli border communities and of course, hostages. The rapid arrival of Israeli military units to the north stopped Hezbollah from executing this operation in support of Hamas.

Hezbollah had also prepared S Lebanon to be an obstacle to Israeli armored units. Construction of choke points and ATGM kill zones were at the top of the list as they were very effective in the 2008 fight. Defenses were based upon the assumption that Israel would not go pedal to the metal like they have and capitulate after heavy losses.

The ongoing ‘limited’ operations are designed to methodically clear the border village regions of Hezbollah forces and clear paths for a much larger armor push. The Israeli warnings to Lebanese to evacuate cities covers all of the territories south of the Litani River, meaning that Israel has it in its plans to move deep. These operations can also be considered to to be reconnaissance in force moves, similar to how Israel acted in Gaza. Once the way was clear and weaknesses identified, the hammer can fall.

Hezbollah had relied upon it ‘Radwan’ forces in S Lebanon for offense / defense. They were to be the shock troops of the surprised attack. The aggressive Israeli air campaign has forced many of these units northward. They are light, relying on ATGM for anti armor and did rely on rocket barrages for indirect fire support. That aspect has largely been stripped away.

With the stated military goal of making N Israel safe for citizens to return to, Israel is first working to eliminate the hezbollah tunnels and military preparations along the border. The next and larger phase is to push Hezbollah north of the Litiani River and out of rocket range for most of N Israel.

I expect to see the Israeli army exploit the gaps created by the initial forces and start to seriously push north this week. There will be a lot of external pressure on Israel not to execute this next phase, but Israel cannot attain its security goals without deeper control over lebanon.

Eyes continue to look at Iran’s options. Israel has made it abundantly clear to Iran - FAFO and Iran knows Israel can back up its warnings, whereas Iran so far has failed epically in its retaliations. Talk continues of Iran sending troops, but even that option is seemingly unlikely. US has expressed concerns that Iran may feel ‘forced’ into an April style attack, but once again, in doing so, they risk their nuclear and oil facilities. Israel is just looking for a reason to hit them, and Iran is largely unable to defend those facilities like they thought they were a year ago.

Lebanese forces are poised but I think they will keep their nose out of the scrum for now. The govt’s renewed willingness to enforce 1701 shows a big shift in the internal power struggle between Hezbollah and the rest of the country. Time will tell if Christian and none-Iranian militias will start taking action against Hezbollah. Israel has been very vocal to say the war is against Hezbollah and that Lebanon can be liberated from these terrorists. So far it seems that message is being positively received.

In summary, Israel will expand the ground ops as the week progresses. It will continue to target the ‘new’ leadership of Hezbollah as well as continue to destroy ammo dumps, production facilities, and other C3 assets.

Iran –

CNN quoting an American official: Washington believes that Iran will intervene in the conflict if it estimates that it is about to lose Hezbollah

***
Iran has said it will not send troops to Lebanon or Gaza, in a sign that Tehran does not want to immediately escalate its confrontation with Israel.
“There is no need to send extra or volunteer forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” a spokesman said, adding that fighters in Lebanon and the Palestinian territories “have the capability and strength to defend themselves against the aggression”.
Iran’s foreign ministry said it had not received any request for assistance from Hezbollah and that the group does “not need the help of our forces”.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/09/30/israel-hezbollah-hamas-war-gaza-latest-news/?fbclid=IwY2xjawFngTlleHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHRSdtT6DQfcWBsKevCBDwZ-Kn-EyYFhLJP-7bVKkBWXJEdbakNl0agoJ0Q_aem_80VWNsRXoiKPYKs6FYfYng

***
Rumint. Israel sent a message to Iran:
It will damage Iranian nuclear and oil facilities in the event that Iran intervenes directly in the escalation with Hezbollah.

Syria -

Iran-backed militias in Iraq reportedly launched missiles at the US Victoria Base near the Baghdad Airport tonight; the missile launch pad was apparently found in the Al-A’amiriya district of Baghdad, along with several Iranian-made Fajr 1 missiles that did not launch.

Misc of Note –

Helene preparation stories continue out there. And its a mess.

Water, many areas will not have clean water for months and possibly years. Prepping rule of “3” has at the top - 3 days without water and you will die. Pretty straight forward. key prep is to have multiple ways to store, procure and purify water. Research them - life straws, filtration methods, boiling, chlorine, etc.

Second key is the loss of cellular comms and with it internet. Cellular phone network (and, by extension, any non-wifi network connectivity your phone has) is going to first be overwhelmed, and then collapse entirely in any disaster, locally and perhaps even regionally, depending on scope and scale.

That means no phone calls are getting through. No texts. No nothing. Your mapping software may or may not work, depending on if it needs internet support vs. relying solely on its GPS lock.

Having alternative comms is essential. Stop relying on your cell phone to do everything for you. Get backup means in place now. If you don’t know how to use things, like the tried and tested Baofeng UV-5R, you better learn NOW.

Oh boy, global chaos took it to a new level yesterday and overnight.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Sep 12, 2024

The Iranian attack on Israel may generate pro-hamas/Hezbollah demonstrations over the next few days. Likely to be relatively tame. However, if Israel follows its promise to nail Iran, protests could become more violent - particularly in the standard urban strongholds of these and other Antifa related groups.

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024

President Joe Biden’s administration heaped pressure on U.S. port employers to raise their offer to secure a labor deal with dockworkers on strike for a second day Wednesday, choking half the country’s ocean shipping.

USMX had offered the union a 50% wage hike, but the ILA’s leader, Harold Daggett said the union is pushing for more (79%), including a $5 per hour raise for each year of the new six-year contract and an end to port automation projects that threaten union jobs.

OBSERVATION - Shortage fears have already hit parts of the east coast with some Costcos reported being out of toilet paper (our new disaster metric). Biden is unwilling to interject further to invoke Taff to force an 80 day cooling off period. People wailed that Trump/republicans wanted a govt shut down, here biden and democrats want a far more devastating shutdown that could potentially hamstring the economy to the tune of over $5 billion per day.

***
In commenting on the Institute for Supply Management (ISM)’s latest report on the manufacturing sector of the U.S. economy, Timothy Fiore, the chairman of the committee responsible for the report issued on Tuesday, said it all:
- U.S. manufacturing activity contracted again in September, and at the same rate compared to last month.
- Demand continues to be weak, output declined….
- New Orders Index remain[ed] in contraction territory….
- New Export Orders Index contract[ed] at a faster rate….
- Backlog of Orders Index stay[ed] in strong contraction territory….
- Output (measured by the Production and Employment indexes) continued in contraction….
- Employment shrunk at a faster rate.

ISM’s factory index “has been in contraction territory for 22 of the past 23 months.”

https://thenewamerican.com/us/economy/u-s-manufacturing-shrinks-for-sixth-month-in-a-row/

OBSERVATION - Information not being spread to the public because the ‘narrative’ is that manufacturing sector is doing well and booming.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

See US naval vessels engaging Iranian missiles under Israel below.

POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th

**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****

***

Even liberal media had to concede the Vance trounced Walz, was far more poised and unrufflable and had a better grasp on policy and reality.

It was so bad for Walz, that ABC moderators violated their agreement not to ‘fact check’ candidates as the ABC News moderators “fact-checked” Trump (and Trump alone) during his debate with Harris. And yet when it came to the famous Haitian immigrants of Springfield, Ohio, Brennan chimed in to chide Vance’s reference to the illegal immigration facilitated by the Biden/Harris administration: “Just to clarify for our viewers, Springfield, Ohio does have a large number of Haitian migrants who have legal status.”

Vance responded: “The rules were that you guys weren’t going to fact check, and since you’re fact checking me, I think it’s important to say what’s actually going on.” Vance sought to seize the opportunity to explicate the new meaning of legal status under the regime of Biden and Harris: “So there’s an application called the CBP One app, where you can go on as an illegal migrant, apply for asylum or apply for parole, and be granted legal status at the wave of a Kamala Harris open border wand.” CBS then cut Vance’s microphone.

Problem for Brennan was that Vance showed up with the receipts and they couldn’t handle it. The cutting off of his mike was a statement of censorship and unwillingness to let a truth be made know.

In its editorial this morning, the New York Post observes that when Walz “told the howler that ‘illegal border crossings are down compared to when Donald Trump left office,’ which is not even close to true, no one let out of a peep. Some ‘facts’ are too good to check.”

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2024/10/after-last-night-62.php

Many say that the VP debates really don’t move the needle much. This may well be a different case. The media has so far been covering for harris and obfuscating her policies, and the public has a desire to know what’s she offering. As her VP, Walz has to be prepared to define and defend those policies. Again, by all counts he failed epically, even with moderator help.

***
Restoration of electrical power in areas hit by Helene may be long delayed due to the fact that the administration shipped a substantial amount of the national reserve of power transformers to Ukraine, making virtually none available for disasters like this. Transformers, particularly the large ones, take a long time to build and there are very few plants that do so. Many factories are staged overseas.

Biden / Harris Watch –

biden receiving flack for his seemingly being out of the loop in the current escalation between Israel and Iran.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 70s and fair. Increasing chances of showers towards the end of the forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Russia launched 32 Shaheds into Ukraine overnight. Air defense shot down 11, 4 Shaheds returned to Russia, and another 10 were downed as a result of electronic warfare.

Ukrainian defense forces have withdrawn from Vuhledar, - Khortytsa operative command

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Verkhnokamyanske in Donetsk region of Ukraine

Ukraine Kursk Offensive-

Russian has renewed counter attacks on Ukrainian forces. Ukraine conducted attacks in the western portion of the salient.

Outlook —

Russian ground forces are making painfully small gains along the Donbas region. There are continued attempts to muster larger size assault forces equipped with available tanks and armor, but these have met with disastrous results. The drivers and leaders are essentially untrained and Ukraine takes quick advantage of that by hitting lead elements, causing follow on vehicles to suddenly cluster and then scramble to retreat as the drones and artillery zoom in.

Kursk is seemingly becoming active again by both Russia and Ukraine.

I don’t see much change in the situation on the ground. The bigger show is the deep war of drones and missiles. Ukraine may soon not need US ATACMS or British Storm Shadow cruise missiles as it appears that they have developed their own deep strike missiles.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Iran launched a large attack using 181 ballistic missiles, some of which managed to penetrate Israeli missile defenses

- Two terrorists killed 7 at a light rail station in Jerusalem.

- Israel expanding its movement into S Lebanon

——— GENERAL ——————————-

October 2, Rosh Hashana, the Jewish New Year,

(ISW). Iran launched a two-wave ballistic missile attack that targeted Israel from Iranian territory on October 1. Iran likely intended to inflict significant damage on Israel by oversaturating Israeli air defenses, particularly in central Israel.

Iranian Armed Forces General Staff-affiliated media claimed that Iran targeted three Israeli airbases and geolocated footage also showed Iranian ballistic missiles impacting at least three other locations. Iran fired tens of missiles on Israel’s Dimona nuclear reactor. All were intercepted (source: N12)

The attack killed one Palestinian in the West Bank & injured two Israelis in Tel Aviv.

The IDF reported that Israel and its allies intercepted the “majority” of the Iranian ballistic missiles launched at Israel.

NOTE - very little information on the number of missiles that got thru the missile defense umbrella. From video on social media observing the airfields and Tel Aviv and others, a rough guess on my part is that 10-15% of the missiles found their target. Post strike OSINT BDA hampered overnight by clouds obscuring much of Israel from commercial satellite imagery passes. It is unlikely Israel will provide any detailed info in order to maintain OPSEC and deny Iran valuable targeting data.

***
Netanyahu: “Iran made a big mistake tonight - and it will pay for it. The regime in Iran does not understand our determination to defend ourselves and our determination to retaliate against our enemies. Sinwar and Def did not understand this, Nasrallah and Mohsen did not understand this, and there are probably those in Tehran who do not understand this. They will understand We will stand by the rule we have established: whoever attacks us - we will attack him”

Israel last week sent messages to Iran saying that if Tehran attacked, Israel would retaliate against Iran’s nuclear or oil facilities — WSJ

U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan, claimed there’d be “severe consequences for this attack, and we will work with Israel to make that the case.”
NOTE - The use of “we” in the statement, implying US participation to some extent.

***
The IDF summarizes the Iranian attack:
About 180 missiles were launched from Iran in several volleys at 7:31PM, a large and effective number of interceptions were carried out, and there are a few hits in the center and south. NOTE - early reports were higher numbers - fog of war

The IDF clarifies: there is no damage to the air force’s competence, the planes or the defense systems. The Air Force will continue to attack tonight in the Middle East in a powerful way.

IDF: Iran is pushing the Middle East to escalate, tonight’s event will have consequences. We will do everything necessary to protect the security of the citizens of Israel.

***
The Arleigh Burke guided-missile destroyers USS Bulkeley and USS Cole fired roughly a dozen interceptors at Iranian ballistic missiles launched towards Israel tonight, per the Pentagon. They were operating in the eastern Mediterranean Sea .

***
Israel’s gas platform in the Mediterranean Sea may have been hit.

***
At least eight people are dead and as many as a dozen wounded after two gunman opened fire on Israeli citizens on a light rail train in Tel Aviv during a missile attack from Iran. The gunmen were ‘neutralized’ on the scene by a bystander.

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

A fight developed when and estimated force of 80 Terrorists some armed tried to storm the Natzer corridor in central Gaza. IDF dealt with the group.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Overnight Israel continued the massive air campaign. Recent Israeli airstrikes in the southern suburb of Beirut, a Hezbollah stronghold known as Dahiyeh, targeted weapon manufacturing sites, the Israeli army says. The military had warned civilians to flee from the sites ahead of the strikes

The IDF estimates: the ground maneuver in southern Lebanon will last a few weeks - in order to complete the task of destroying and neutralizing Radwan infrastructure in the villages

40 rockets were fired from Lebanon at the city of Safed, northern Israel, in addition to other rockets fired overnight.

Resistance by Hezbollah forces have increased along the border via numerous ambushes of Israeli forces.

The Israeli army says another division is being deployed to southern Lebanon for ground operations against Hezbollah. The 36th Division is now joining the 98th Division, which had entered Lebanon on Monday night

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Syrian army sources: Israeli air defenses shot down dozens of Iranian missiles flying over southern Syria

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Jordan allowed American forces to use its airspace to shoot down Iranian missiles — NBC quoting an American official and a Jordanian official

Spanish Ministry of Defense: We will send two military planes to Lebanon to evacuate our citizens

Cyprus has fully activated a mechanism to allow third-country nationals evacuating the Middle East safe passage through the island as the crisis in the region worsens, its government spokesperson said

Statement by the French Presidency: Macron called on Israel to end its military operations in Lebanon as soon as possible

Elysee: Macron condemns in the strongest terms Iran’s attacks on Israel

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

I was surprised that Iran choose to launch this long awaited attack. I noted yesterday that “Iran may feel ‘forced’ into an April style attack, but once again, in doing so, they risk their nuclear and oil facilities.’

Red flags were there
- US issued more warnings of an imminent attack. However, they’ve been issuing similar for the past couple months and IMHO reached the boy crying wolf stage.
- Israel canceled events at the Western Wall.
- Multiple warnings by Israel that any attack would open up a can of hurt on Iran.

Best report is that Iran launched 181 missiles. In comparison, the attack in April: 300 launches from Yemen, Iran, Iraq and Lebanon. Of that, about 100 ballistic missiles and 170 unmanned aerial vehicles. 99 percent of the targets were successfully intercepted! This attack saw no drones/cruise missiles or substantial fire from Iraq, Yemen or even Lebanon.

No real assessment on how many made it thru the defenses. As I noted above, rough guesstimate from videos is 10-15%. Israel will likely be tight lipped if any of the declared targets were hit and what damages were sustained. Claims of airfield strikes don’t seem to have affected the tempo of attacks on Hezbollah targets. It appears that the increase in the success was based in part to missile not self destructing over Iran/Iraq as in April. Possibly due to Iran using its newer models and not the older stock.

This attack has reset the whole regional calculations on the extent of combat. Israel has been given the justification to do what it has been wanting to do for a long time - nail the Iranian nuclear program and cripple it economically. Israel may well add an attempt to take out the mullahs to that wish list.

Israel likely is just polishing off its target list but high on that list is probably Kargh Island, the oil port that 95% of all exported oil passes thru. Add refineries and other processing sites and the Iranian economy takes a major hit.

There are dozens of sites scattered across Iran engaged in various stages and components of the development of a nuclear weapon. Many are ‘hardened’ by placement underground other not so much. However, even hardened sites are not invulnerable, entrance portals and above ground power sites can be hit and that damage can cascade inside.

Systems available to Israel will likely be heavily weighted to cruise and ballistic missiles. I don’t know if they have the capability to refuel the F35s for a stealth attack on facilities in the interior of Iran. They may be used in the Persian Gulf to hit oil targets, and perhaps a capital ship or two. I do not see Israel resorting to nukes at this stage, too great a risk at global pushback and potentially direct Russian involvement (coming to the aid of its new ally)

Sullivan’s use of the “we” in his statement infers that the US may directly participate with Israel as part of a retaliatory counter strike. Interesting position and one that could massively hurt Iran even more. Remember, Arab world recognizes strength and Iran went a few steps to regain their honor. A massive counterstrike could put them back to square one.

Risk of another Iranian missile assault would remain high. They have a lot of missiles still in storage and though Israel may target some of those stockpiles, it would be difficult for Israel to mount an ongoing assault to take them out like they have been able to do with Hezbollah. Iran may launch in a preemptive manner to disrupt the Israeli strike or sometime after the strike.

So how’s this going to play out? My best estimate is that Israel (potentially with US involvement) will hit and hit hard by the end of the week. If they attack on Oct 7 it would be very symbolic to all in the region, and 5 days is a good period to be used by Israel to get all the ‘I’s dotted an the ’t’s crossed for the attack. I expect that Israel will follow on with their word to hit oil and nuclear development sites, with a potential attempt to nail the mullah’s in their hidey holes.

Will it escalate? Will the US put munitions on Iran and widen the scope of the conflict. Will Iran attempt another missile strike? We won’t know much until after the smoke clears from the counter strike.

***
Before I forget, action in S Lebanon. Israel moving more forces into Lebanon. Hezbollah has claimed successfully driving Israeli forces back, but Hama made similar claims during the initial incursions in Gaza. As I said, these are reconnaissance in force operations - partly to identify stronghold for elimination when the hard core ground operation kicks off. Ground ops will grow by the weekend and Hezbollah will have their hands full. Israel has been preparing for this rematch for decades now. Exchanges at a strategic level with Iran will have little effect on this effort.

Iran –

Iranian government spokeswoman: Operation True Promise 2 was in defense of our national interests within the framework of international laws

Iranian government spokeswoman: We committed to self-restraint for two months in the hope of achieving a ceasefire in Gaza

The Revolutionary Guards in an official announcement: We attacked in the heart of the occupied territories in response to the elimination of Nasrallah and Abbas Nilproshan. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claiming to use the newly developed Fattah-1 (allegedly a hypersonic missile).

Iran warned Israel and the United States against any reaction to its massive missile strike against the Jewish State on Tuesday night.
“Should the Zionist regime dare to respond or commit further acts of malevolence, a subsequent and crushing response will ensue,” Iran’s mission to the United Nations wrote in a post on X.

Iranian sources state that the mullahs have been moved to a secure location

State TV: Iranian president leaves Tehran for Qatar on scheduled visit

Videos on social media show everyday Iranians in a near panic as long lines queued up at gasoline stations and ATM machines in anticipation of an economy destroying attack by Israel.

Misc of Note –

I spent a lot of space dealing with the Iranian attack on Israel and impending actions. We also face threats of supply disruptions by rabid union on the east coast — right when the region is trying to recover from Helene. And a presidential race that is ratcheting up the heat.

Keep your ears to the ground.