New week starting out rough for those in the SE US.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
Longshoremen negotiators informed the press on Sunday that talks have stalled and that the October 1 strike is going to happen Tuesday. Retailers brace for what is expected to be massive shortages affecting multiple industries.
The strike could shut down 36 ports from Maine to Texas that handle about half the goods shipped into and out of the United States. West Coast dockworkers belong to a different union and aren’t involved in the strike.
A prolonged strike would force companies to pay shippers for the delays, and goods could arrive too late for the high point of the holiday shopping season.
Jonathan Gold, vice president of supply chain and customs policy at the National Retail Federation states “A dockworkers’ strike could prove even more damaging than the pandemic-induced port congestion in 2021 and 2022, when cargo was allowed to move, albeit slowly. Eastern ports could be left at a standstill. Gold noted that carriers are already announcing surcharges on containers to address potential disruptions, a trend that could elevate inflation.
https://conservativeplaylist.com/the-port-strike-is-happening/
OBSERVATION - Red danger lights are flashing, especially if this strike is prolonged. Besides passing container surcharges to consumers will come the increased prices due to supply shortages. It will also drift over into the rail and trucking markets who’ve ramped up post wuhan now facing no cargo to deliver. Then any wage increases (IIRC something in the neighborhood of 30% - please check me on that) will also be migrated down to consumers via higher prices.
An earlier question - will this trigger a recession? If prolonged (multiple weeks) it could further accelerate the economy in that direction. On a longer term, the overall increased costs will pressure higher inflation and leveraged against an already weakened market and economy - not good news if we enter (or continue in) a recession.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The U.S. military said Sunday that it’s increasing its air support capabilities in the Middle East and putting troops on a heightened readiness to deploy to the region as it warned Iran against expanding the ongoing conflict.
The announcement came two days after President Joe Biden directed the Pentagon to adjust U.S. force posture in the Middle East amid intensifying concern that Israel’s killing of the leader of Iran-backed Hezbollah could prompt Tehran to retaliate.
“The United States is determined to prevent Iran and Iranian-backed partners and proxies from exploiting the situation or expanding the conflict,” Pentagon spokesperson Major General Patrick Ryder said in a statement.
https://www.newsmax.com/us/us-military-middle-east/2024/09/29/id/1182154/
Under the orders of Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, additional U.S. Military Units at Bases in the United States and Europe have been raised to a High State of Readiness, with them directed to prepare for Deployment to the Middle East.
The U.S. Department of Defense has announced that due to heightened tension in the region, the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) and her carrier strike group as well as the Wasp Amphibious Ready Group have been ordered to remain in the Middle East; while Squadrons of F-22, F-15E, F-16 and A-10 Combat Aircraft have increased their presence at airbases in the region, with a further reinforcement of defensive air-support capabilities said to be coming in the next few days.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
Debates ???
Vance/walz - Oct. 1
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****
***
Rumint. New leaks indicate that Tim Walz is in shambles and considering backing out of the debate altogether.
NOTE - this could also be a psyops ploy to lower expectations and lure Vance into a false sense of security too.
Moderators for the VP debate have been vocal in saying that they will not ‘fact check’ either one. This has caused the left to go into convulsions.
***
Entering the period of the nefarious “October Surprise” zone. Warning - turbulence ahead.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden just said there will be NO ADDITIONAL RESOURCES given to the areas pummeled by Hurricane Helene
Biden on Hurricane Helene:
Reporter: “Do you have any words to the victims of the hurricane?”
Biden: “We’ve given everything that we have.”
Reporter “Are there any more resources the federal government could be giving them?”
Biden: “No.”
***
Reporter: “Any comment on the strikes in Yemen?”
Biden: “I’ve spoken to both sides. They gotta settle the strike. I’m supporting the collective bargaining effort. I think they’ll settle the strike.”
Illegal Immigration –
The total cost of illegal immigration under President Joe Biden’s administration would be equivalent to the gross domestic product of the 36th largest economy in the world, according to a report from late last year that’s now getting attention on social media.
Illegal immigration under President Joe Biden’s administration has cost the country an estimated $451 billion per year, according to a report released by House Republicans in November 2023.
https://wokespy.com/cost-of-illegal-immigration-equivalent-to-36th-largest-economy-in-the-world/
***
On Friday, the same day that Kamala Harris had her photo op at the southern border, where she pretended to take the issue of border security seriously, the Biden-Harris Justice Department announced that it is suing the state of Alabama for its efforts to remove illegal immigrants from its voter rolls.
OBSERVATION - Isn’t this administration and affiliated democrats dogmatically asserting that illegals aren’t registered to vote because it is illegal?
Phillipines –
The Philippines held a joint patrol in the South China Sea that included forces from Japan, Australia, the U.S. and New Zealand on Saturday.
The joint patrol was the fourth multilateral maritime cooperative activity held to date. Participants included BRP Antonio Luna (FF-151) , BRP Emilio Jacinto (PS-35) USS Howard (DDG-83), HMAS Sydney (DDG-42) , JS Sazanami (DD-113) and HMNZS Aotearoa (A-11). Naval aviation, including three helicopters and one Royal Australian Air Force P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft, also joined the exercise. Activities, which included drills in maritime domain awareness, replenishment at sea and contact reporting, were held near the vicinity of the Philippine exclusive economic zone off Luzon.
The Australian, Japanese, and New Zealander vessels participating in the drills previously sailed through the Taiwan Strait on Wednesday to reach the South China Sea. This was the first time a Japanese ship was announced transiting the 90–mile wide strait separating Taiwan and China.
Armed Forces of the Philippines chief Gen. Romeo Brawner said the patrol was in line with international law and affirmed the right of freedom of navigation and overflight.
OBSERVATION - Chinese aggression in the region has resulted in negative consequences for it as new military alliances are forming among countries to counter Chinese efforts to capture islands in the S China Sea region.
Russia -
Kerch Bridge update –
Russia has been investing a considerable amount of resources in increasing the protection of the bridge from Ukraine attack. It is the only real avenue of resupply to most of Russian forces in southern Ukraine and Crimea. Should Ukraine take it out, supply issues would become severe by orders of magnitude.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 70s and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The Ukrainian Air Force reported on another russian missile and drone attack
Shot down:
0/1 Iskander-M ballistic missile
1/1 Kh-59/69 cruise missile
0/1 Kh-31P anti-radar missile
67/73 Shahed drones
One more Shahed flew back to Belarus, three more were lost on Ukrainian territory due to electronic warfare measures.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Nelipivka in Donetsk region of Ukraine
Russia continues to press across the whole length of the front in the Donbas Region.
Outlook —
Action is relatively static across the fronts. Russian still throwing attacks along the Donbas portions of the front with very little return on the men/equipment losses they are facing. Recent battalion sized attacks by Russia over the weekend failed with dozens of armored vehicles damaged or destroyed.
Ukraine appears to be shifting to more sustained defensive operations. Very little action by either side in Kursk or Kharkiv areas.
Russian still has a lot of Shahed drones to throw at Ukraine, but not doing very significant damage.
Europe / NATO General –
EU holds meeting to discuss latest escalation in Lebanon
***
Austria’s far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) has opened the door to a new era, its leader Herbert Kickl has told supporters, as they celebrated an unprecedented election victory.
Kickl’s party won 29.2% of the vote according to provisional results - almost three points ahead of the conservative People’s Party (ÖVP) on 26.5%, but far short of a majority.
Kickl’s victory is only the latest in a string of far-right election successes in Europe and he praised voters for their “optimism, courage and trust” in delivering a “piece of history”.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Nasrallah funeral today
- IAF destroys two key Houthi ports, cutting off critical fuel and food imports
- More and more Hamas, hezbollah and Iranian military leaders taken out
- Israeli armored forces poised at jumpopff locations olong the Lebanese border.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Activity levels still continue at fairly low levels.
An apparent uptick in airstrikes throughout Gaza.
Head of Hamas in Lebanon, Fateh Sherif Abu el-Amin, was eliminated. He was the successor of Saleh Arouri, previous head of Hamas in Lebanon, who was eliminated earlier this year.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israel appeared to be gearing up for a ground invasion of Lebanon as hundreds of tanks massed on the country’s northern border. Soldiers carrying wrenches made final preparations to their armoured vehicles as plumes of smoke rose from wildfires started by Hezbollah rockets
The IDF attacked dozens of launchers and buildings where weapons were stored in the Beqaa in Lebanon. In addition, fighter jets attacked in various areas in southern Lebanon, military buildings used by the terrorist organization Hezbollah for terrorist activities against the State of Israel.
IAF airstrike levels slightly lower than recent days. This still places nearly 200 targets being hit overnight.
The IDF estimates: Hezbollah is firing rockets at Israel to the extent of about 10% of the original planning in its war plans.
The reasons offered by the IDF for the relatively limited firing:
1. Shooting capabilities were partially damaged
2. Significant damage to commanders and difficulties in command and control
3. Confusion in decision-making in an organization that is preoccupied with its survival
***
Lebanon premier says ready to implement UN Resolution 1701. Lebanon to deploy army on Lebanon border in event of ceasefire
Naim Qassem: - Israel will not be able to strike our military capabilities, as they are strong, we have full readiness, and we will continue with human and military capabilities. What we are doing is the minimum as part of the battle plan, according to our assessment, the drawn plans, and what the field requires. We will choose a Secretary-General for the party as soon as possible
Hashem Safieddine, Hezbollah’s new leader
He previously wasn’t deemed important enough to have a pager or communication device, to be invited to any meeting of the top command, or to be present in Nasrallah’s bunker.
GROUND OFFENSIVE INDICATORS
- Israeli troops and tanks were last night seen gathering in the north, on their border with southern Lebanon, in apparent preparation for a ground invasion.
The last time Israel launched a ground offensive of Lebanon was in 2006, when 34 days of intense cross-border fighting with Hezbollah ended in a stalemate.
- Air strikes taking on a more CAS pattern in S Lebanon.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Syria: last night an Israeli airstrike targeted a 2-story building in area of Yafous border crossing with Lebanon. Casualties are reported. Reports the target was a Hezbollah member overseeing transport of Hezbollah fighters across the border. He was presumably killed
Bloomberg, citing a source: Iran is trying to transfer thousands of fighters to the border areas of Lebanon and Syria
Arab Reports:
The regime has lost contact with Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad’s brother Maher after the Israeli Air Force struck his villa near Damascus overnight.
A meeting with Iranian leaders was taking place in the villa. Maher is the commander of the Syrian Army’s 4th Division.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
IAF hit Houthi controlled ports in Yemen in retaliation for recent attacks by ballistic missiles and drones.
In the attack, the air force hit two ports - Hudaydah and Ras Issa - both of which have fuel terminals. Unlike the previous attack in July that only targeted the port of Hodeidah - this time both were hit.
Hudaydah is Yemen’s fourth largest city. Serious implications for the civilian population. The port is a lifetime for aid, food and power.
The IDF assesses: the attack in Yemen no longer allows the Houthis to bring in fuel by sea - this is a significant damage to their ability to sustain the terrorist system.
Unconfirmed reports that Mohammed Abdulsalam, the spokesperson of the Yemeni Houthi terror oganization, was killed in a helicopter accident en route from Yemen to Tehran.
Houthi called for peace and end to escalating conflict following Israel’s strikes on two ports.
Sources associated with the Houthis in Yemen report the downing of another American MQ-9 drone in the Saada district. The 11th American drone that the Houthis have shot down
——— FORECAST ————————-
Airstrike pattern and ground forces positioning strongly indicate a soon assault into S Lebanon. Previously, high intensity air strikes focused on the ‘strategic’ missile assets of Hezbollah as well as incredible number of hits on leadership. See the comments on Hashem Safieddine, the new leader of Hezbollah, to see just how far down the totem pole they’ve had to go. Analysts are trying to say that Hezbollah will successfully restore their leadership core as well as command and control - but I seriously doubt that in the present fight. Israel has the initiative and Hezbollah has to respond with untried leaders and poor command and control conditions.
Supporters of Hezbollah are dragging out the 100,000 man army they have reportedly still have. With all the airstrikes, attrition of that number is very probably equivalent to the attrition of the 150,000 rockets and missiles claimed at the start of the war. Destruction of Hezbollah high command got all the attention, while casualties to these forces have largely been underreported. The other matter is that these forces are light and now sorely lack the cover of massive rocket barrages the Hezbollah hoped would deter Israeli actions. Nearly one year to soften up Hezbollah defenses and not the more direct attacks in preparation for the ground assault, these forces are in even more dire conditions. Gone are the report of ATGM fire on Israel troops and towns.
I still anticipate the ground offensive to kick off this week. The impact of Rosh Hashana is a controlling factor IMHO.
Hamas is dropping off the threat radar fast as they’ve essentially ceased to be an effective force, now attrited down to squad sized elements with fewer places to hide and fewer weapons available. Many still attribute this to the silence from Sinwar, who could be seriously injured or dead. The biggest focus are search efforts to find any of the hostages dead or preferably alive.
Yemen got served another lesson overnight. Those ports served as a lifetime for aid, food and power. Its gonna hurt in the long run.
It is a lesson not lost to Iran, again, that Israel can easily strike its vulnerable oil and nuclear programs. The losses of effective Hamas and Hezbollah elements has created a gaping hole in Iran’s regional posture and defenses. The big question is who is going to win out in the argument over whether to respond and how big - the hardliners or the more ‘moderate’ new president. So far Pezeshkian is holding sway, but that can change in a literal heartbeat.
Currently Iran is now behind on two ‘revenges’. The next potential action window by Iran may be the actual ground assault phase by Israel. That will be the last act of desperation by Hezbollah.
Besides missile and drone threats, Iran keeps rumbling about sending forces to Syria to stage into either Lebanon or Israel. IRGC does have a lot of forces in Syria supporting Assad and engaged in N Syria against anti-Assad strongholds such as Idlib. As noted below under Syria, such a shift could create problems for Syria. Second, the movement of large forces and their equipment will be easily seen and addressed via indicatory strikes.
Lebanon’s govt is now starting to exert itself into the Hezbollah / Israel fight and would eventually be more helpful to Israel than the Hezzies. With the severe damage inflicted on Hezbollah, Lebanon’s army is in a better position to enforce disarmament and UN resolution 1701. It has been outmanned and out gunned by Hezbollah and unable to enforce 1701. I could even see an initial period of joint operations with Israel ground forces after Hezbollah’s been kicked out of the south. The military threat to the Lebanese govt maintained by Hezbollah is going away and many see the Israeli operation as a ‘liberation’ of the country.
Finally, the “Islamic Resistance” will be getting some more munitions from Iran. In the instance of the Houthis, now those munitions may not be delivered in a timely manner. The Iraqi govt may pressure the Iranian backed militias to stand down to avoid US or Israeli strikes. Both suggest that Iran’s proxy ‘shields’ are beginning to fail.
Iran –
Iranians are calling on Pezeshkian to resign over the decision not to retaliate assassination of Ismael Haniyeh. They believe this is what caused the Martyrdom of Nasrallah.
Syria -
The ongoing collapse of Hezbollah is looking to potentially threaten Bashar al-Assad’s hold on Syria.
Hezbollah forces played a part in some of the most brutal chapters of the Syrian civil war, including sieges that starved encircled communities for months, as well as operations that expelled many Sunni Muslims, who were the backbone of the anti-Assad revolt, from neighborhoods and towns.
Assad only barely managed to prevail in the long and bloody Syrian civil war, even with help from Hezbollah, Iran, and Russia. Russia now has another bloody war and quagmire in Ukraine, and probably can’t help out if a Hezbollah collapse triggers another popular uprising. Iran might have to take the field directly, but that would risk triggering a direct conflict with Israel, as they would first need to secure their position in Lebanon by reconstituting Hezbollah as their proxy.
If Assad starts looking wobbly, Ali Khamenei can’t afford to ignore that threat. If Syria slips away from Iran’s orbit, they will have almost no way to project power in the region.
https://hotair.com/ed-morrissey/2024/09/28/how-long-can-this-puppet-last-without-hezbollah-n3795118
OBSERVATION - This a secondary benefit of the ongoing defeat of Hezbollah. In Syria, even the IRGC is vulnerable to the IAF, and Israel watches that threat very closely. While Assad has had some time to regroup since the onset of civil war, he is in no way ready to deal directly with Israel.
Misc of Note –
Damage and other losses from the after affects of Hurricane Helene are staggering - particularly in N Carolina and Tennessee. 67 reported dead and over 1000 thousand missing. Vast portions of Western N Carolina continue to be cut off as FEMA and state agencies struggle to get teams and relief supplies to affected individuals.
Now biden is on record saying no further help is coming (see Biden/Harris watch above)
The disaster scenario has created a stark contrast between long time residents (hillbilly rednecks) who have a generally prepper mindset and figure that they are their own first responders versus a large number of leftists who’ve converged on and essentially converted Asheville NC into a clone of Berkeley CA. The newcomers not only ridiculed the cultural preparedness mind set, but now have been demanding that the long term locals turn over supplies to them.
Special note - Locals are not looting grocery stores but have the wherewithal to know that stores will get what they got to the people. Videos on social media show them calmly waiting in line for their turn to go into the local stores.
On a similar note - looters have been out and (surprise) many have been illegals piped into the regions by biden et al. That looting has been so far minimal is due to a strong 2A culture. The warning of “if you loot, we shoot” is paying off to some extent.
FEMA is not at its best and is failing to tap the full resources to get relief and rescue those trapped / hurt. Active duty bases are wondering why calls for military helicopters and logistics support units haven’t been made. Civilians responding to calls for help with helicopters have been grounded in many places by FEMA, along with resistance to elements of the Cajun Navy what deployed to the region.
NOTE - Biden telling them no more assistance is coming.
Urgent thing to know - DO NOT DONATE TO THE RED CROSS! Samaritans Purse or the Southern Baptist emergency funds are a far more responsive and effective organizations with your money and resources. If you know of local churches or organizations meeting the needs, fund them first. as well. Red Cross will reject local food support for those in RC shelters because it doesn’t come from authorized sources - they have forced the refugees to choose between eating or having shelter in past disasters. They also have taken donations and redirected them to non-disaster operations.
Also note - churches that have hosted RC shelters have had their ability to minister to the refugees denied because the pastors there are not from their ‘approved’ ministerial lists. And they dictate other items often contrary to the host churches.
Final note - some stories about some caught in the disaster complaining that they didn’t have the resources to get out of harms way. Folks it isn’t that complicated but you need to do some low to no cost stubby pencil work.
1 Identify the potential disasters (fire, flood, earthquake) you may face
2 Identify if you are in those zones
3 Begin to identify family / friends who live out side those area who would be willing to take you in.
4 Identify evacuation routes (plural) and plan on leaving as soon as there is evidence that a disaster is enroute (evacuation warnings, other developments) to avoid getting caught in crowds
5 Have ‘bug out’ bags, food, important papers, items, etc identified and ready to grab and go. Update on an annual basis
6 Set aside a cash stash to handle immediate expenses.
Yep, some may scoff at you, but if the disaster should strike, you’ll be safe while they wait for rescue from some roof top. Your planning has to be looked at on a long term basis. As many found out, when the crisis hits, the time for preparation is over and survival kicks in.
Thanks Godzilla
ISRAEL UPDATE
IDF:
The ground operation has begun
Interesting that they're reduced to recruiting nobodies.
Israel must have done more damage to hebollah leadership than we realized.
Or they're protecting the few they have left by promoting others to take the fall.
Nope.
I'm not spending my time and money prepping to give it away to ingrates who sneer at me but come with hands held out because they were too lazy and self-absorbed to prep for themselves.
This week is developing into another wild one. Keep alert
Globalism / Great Reset –
Lurch’s recent comments to the WEF continue to echo around the interwebs. It is clear that the globalist left that he is affiliated with (as well as those other ‘progressives’ in the US) have one thing in mind - gutting or eliminating all together the US constitution. The 1A is a critical reflection to what the british attempted to impose on the states in the early stages of the war. Ben Franklin and others had to set up clandestine printing presses to get the news out that the british forbid. In today’s scenario, the globalists are trying to institute the same censorship by growing brute force/power to force competing views off the air and internet.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Sep 21, 2024 due to threat to shoot down Trump.
Word that there is some sort of group slashing trucker tires at stops along I-40 in Tennessee. Upwards of 50 trucks have been reportedly affected.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said on Monday that interest rates may fall to a level that neither restricts nor boosts the economy, though officials are not in a rush to cut rates.
Why it matters: For now it looks likely that the U.S. economy could avoid a recession as inflation plunges and the labor market remains healthy. Powell signaled that lower rates could help guarantee a so-called “soft landing,” but some risks remain.
What he’s saying: “Looking forward, if the economy evolves broadly as expected, policy will move over time toward a more neutral stance,” Powell said in Nashville, Tenn. at a conference hosted by the National Association for Business Economics.
“Neutral” refers to the level of interest rates that does not restrain economic activity, but does not jumpstart the economy either.
Powell, however, added that the Fed is not on a “preset course.”
https://www.axios.com/2024/09/30/powell-fed-lower-interest-rates-economy
OBSERVATION - A lot of hopium in the statement. Inflation is not ‘plunging’ but in many sectors is starting to rise again. Jobs is a primary concern, not reflecting a ‘heathy’ market.
***
Dockworkers strike is expected to start today.
WH saying that the impact from the impending strike of dock workers on the east / gulf coast will be ‘limited’.
Follow up from yesterday, I misstated the wage demands of the dock workers, it wasn’t 30% but a whopping 80% wage increase.
OBSERVATION - First round of October ‘surprises’ . This strike has the potential to create severe problems for the economy.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
Debates ???
Vance/walz - Oct. 1
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****
***
Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) are scheduled to participate in a VP debate at 9pm ET at the CBS Broadcast Center in New York.
***
In a letter to Homeland Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, House Oversight Chair James Comer (R-KY) said a whistleblower came forward to the House Oversight Committee alleging serious concern among Department of Homeland Security (DHS) personnel about long standing connections between the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz.
OBSERVATION - Like most of the investigations done the past couple years, this will go no where as Mayorkas will ignore then drag his feet in releasing the material, especially before the election. No accountability.
Biden / Harris Watch –
they both are getting all kinds of heat over the nature and effectiveness of the Helene flooding response.
Cyber attacks/warfare – Moderate ALERT as of Sep 1, 2024
Alerts going out concerning more aggressive Iranian hacking of govt and political party sites and info.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 70s and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight, 29 shahed drones were launched into Ukraine. 26 of them were shot down, and 3 more were lost in Ukrainian territory likely due to to EW measures.
Russian forces have advanced deeper inside Vuhledar to the most northwestern part of the city. In addition to our report yesterday, it is now quite safe to assume Ukraine no longer holds any presence inside Vuhledar.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Russian has renewed counter attacks on Ukrainian forces.
Outlook —
Vuhledar has been a front line city for most of the past three plus years. Like many other gains, Russia’s impending capture has been pyrrhic in the losses of men and material.
Russia is also pressing along the rest of the Donbas front, nibbling out small gains in various sectors.
I expect Russia to continue to press hard to capture and consolidate territory before the winter season arrives.
Wild cards still in play are the drone/missile wars by both sides.
Europe / NATO General –
New NATO Secretary General Rutte says Ukraine is top of the list on his priorities as the new head of the military alliance. Says “we have to make sure it prevails as an independent and sovereign nation”
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Israel begins limited ground operations in S Lebanon
- All public events at the Western Wall have been cancelled.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
October 2, Rosh Hashana, the Jewish New Year,
Israeli Security Cabinet ministers were not happy that the Americans leaked Israel’s plan to enter Lebanon today.
American Defense Minister Lloyd Austin spoke overnight with Israel’s Defense Minister Galant and issued a statement supporting the IDF’s ground operation in southern Lebanon: “We agreed on the need to dismantle attack infrastructure along the border, to ensure that Hezbollah cannot carry out October 7-style attacks on Israel’s northern settlements.”
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Israel continues to hit regroupings of Hamas et al fighters.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Overnight Israel continued the massive air campaign in the hundreds of targets being hit, some key ones were -
- 7-10 blasts in Beirut on weapon depots stored under residential buildings
- Attacks in Tyre and Sidon
- 3 attacks in Damascus. The IDF conducted precise strikes on weapons manufacturing sites and infrastructure belonging to Hezbollah in Dahieh in Beirut
- Air strikes hitting radars in Syria
Overnight, Israel initiated what they call ‘limited’ operations in S Lebanon. Evacuation notices were sent out to border villages, reportedly unusual in scope: Dozens of villages in southern Lebanon are called to evacuate
IDF:
“Hezbollah had prepared to use those villages — as staging grounds for an October 7-style invasion…into Israeli homes.
An Israeli security official declined to specify how deep the forces had penetrated Lebanese territory, saying only that they were “close” to the border.
The Washington Post, citing an Israeli official: There were no reports of clashes between the army forces that entered Lebanon and Hezbollah militants.
Israeli army: We uncovered plans to invade the Galilee in Hezbollah tunnels. The current operation has exposed several underground offensive tunnels in southern Lebanon.
The Lebanese Army has pulled back 5km from the border, according to local media outlets.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israel targeted radar positions and air defense systems in the Daraa and Sawida area and Al-Thaala Military Airport in the Syrian province of Sweida. These attacks are a SEAD operation to blind Syria and Hezbollah to operations in the south.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Follow up to the recent Israeli airstrike.
Reports from Houthi-controlled Yemen indicate that all three power stations have been completely destroyed by Israel’s attack yesterday. For the foreseeable future, Houthi-controlled Yemen will be totally out of electricity
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Russia calls on Israel to withdraw its forces from Lebanon
——— FORECAST ————————-
The ground war is commencing in a manner different from that against Gaza. To understand we have to go to a pre-Oct 7 scenario and planning of Hamas/Hezbollah and Iran to conduct a surprise attack into Israel.
Hamas got too anxious and attacked early - attempting to gain the ‘glory’. Israel responded with a lot of troops being sent north instead of towards Gaza because they were aware of the plan and Hezbollah’s larger army was a greater threat.
Hezbollah for its part planned to use tunnels under the border originating from Lebanese border towns to infiltrate into Israel and facilitate rapid capture of Israeli border communities and of course, hostages. The rapid arrival of Israeli military units to the north stopped Hezbollah from executing this operation in support of Hamas.
Hezbollah had also prepared S Lebanon to be an obstacle to Israeli armored units. Construction of choke points and ATGM kill zones were at the top of the list as they were very effective in the 2008 fight. Defenses were based upon the assumption that Israel would not go pedal to the metal like they have and capitulate after heavy losses.
The ongoing ‘limited’ operations are designed to methodically clear the border village regions of Hezbollah forces and clear paths for a much larger armor push. The Israeli warnings to Lebanese to evacuate cities covers all of the territories south of the Litani River, meaning that Israel has it in its plans to move deep. These operations can also be considered to to be reconnaissance in force moves, similar to how Israel acted in Gaza. Once the way was clear and weaknesses identified, the hammer can fall.
Hezbollah had relied upon it ‘Radwan’ forces in S Lebanon for offense / defense. They were to be the shock troops of the surprised attack. The aggressive Israeli air campaign has forced many of these units northward. They are light, relying on ATGM for anti armor and did rely on rocket barrages for indirect fire support. That aspect has largely been stripped away.
With the stated military goal of making N Israel safe for citizens to return to, Israel is first working to eliminate the hezbollah tunnels and military preparations along the border. The next and larger phase is to push Hezbollah north of the Litiani River and out of rocket range for most of N Israel.
I expect to see the Israeli army exploit the gaps created by the initial forces and start to seriously push north this week. There will be a lot of external pressure on Israel not to execute this next phase, but Israel cannot attain its security goals without deeper control over lebanon.
Eyes continue to look at Iran’s options. Israel has made it abundantly clear to Iran - FAFO and Iran knows Israel can back up its warnings, whereas Iran so far has failed epically in its retaliations. Talk continues of Iran sending troops, but even that option is seemingly unlikely. US has expressed concerns that Iran may feel ‘forced’ into an April style attack, but once again, in doing so, they risk their nuclear and oil facilities. Israel is just looking for a reason to hit them, and Iran is largely unable to defend those facilities like they thought they were a year ago.
Lebanese forces are poised but I think they will keep their nose out of the scrum for now. The govt’s renewed willingness to enforce 1701 shows a big shift in the internal power struggle between Hezbollah and the rest of the country. Time will tell if Christian and none-Iranian militias will start taking action against Hezbollah. Israel has been very vocal to say the war is against Hezbollah and that Lebanon can be liberated from these terrorists. So far it seems that message is being positively received.
In summary, Israel will expand the ground ops as the week progresses. It will continue to target the ‘new’ leadership of Hezbollah as well as continue to destroy ammo dumps, production facilities, and other C3 assets.
Iran –
CNN quoting an American official: Washington believes that Iran will intervene in the conflict if it estimates that it is about to lose Hezbollah
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Iran has said it will not send troops to Lebanon or Gaza, in a sign that Tehran does not want to immediately escalate its confrontation with Israel.
“There is no need to send extra or volunteer forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” a spokesman said, adding that fighters in Lebanon and the Palestinian territories “have the capability and strength to defend themselves against the aggression”.
Iran’s foreign ministry said it had not received any request for assistance from Hezbollah and that the group does “not need the help of our forces”.
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Rumint. Israel sent a message to Iran:
It will damage Iranian nuclear and oil facilities in the event that Iran intervenes directly in the escalation with Hezbollah.
Syria -
Iran-backed militias in Iraq reportedly launched missiles at the US Victoria Base near the Baghdad Airport tonight; the missile launch pad was apparently found in the Al-A’amiriya district of Baghdad, along with several Iranian-made Fajr 1 missiles that did not launch.
Misc of Note –
Helene preparation stories continue out there. And its a mess.
Water, many areas will not have clean water for months and possibly years. Prepping rule of “3” has at the top - 3 days without water and you will die. Pretty straight forward. key prep is to have multiple ways to store, procure and purify water. Research them - life straws, filtration methods, boiling, chlorine, etc.
Second key is the loss of cellular comms and with it internet. Cellular phone network (and, by extension, any non-wifi network connectivity your phone has) is going to first be overwhelmed, and then collapse entirely in any disaster, locally and perhaps even regionally, depending on scope and scale.
That means no phone calls are getting through. No texts. No nothing. Your mapping software may or may not work, depending on if it needs internet support vs. relying solely on its GPS lock.
Having alternative comms is essential. Stop relying on your cell phone to do everything for you. Get backup means in place now. If you don’t know how to use things, like the tried and tested Baofeng UV-5R, you better learn NOW.