Bill Melugin
Tens of thousands of illegal immigrants with sexual assault, murder convictions roaming US streets: ICE data
Had errands this morning but breaking news out of Lebanon.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Sep 12, 2024
Muslim and far-left extremists, many of them holding Hamas and Hezbollah terror flags, have again shut down the streets of New York City in a direct action.
More disturbances expected today with Netanyahu speaking before the UN.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Sep 21, 2024 due to threat to shoot down Trump.
DEVELOPING
RUMOR: There are reports (most recently aired on Fox News) that the Secret Service has credible intelligence that Trump Force One may be the target of an assassin armed with a shoulder fired missile. As a result the Secret Service is recommending that Trump’s campaign use multiple unmarked charter jets to transport the former president and campaign staff. No one from the campaign is confirming or denying these rumors/reports.
Unconfirmed reports that nine heat-seeking surface-to-air missiles have been smuggled into the US by Mexican cartels for this purpose. And there are at least three kill teams already inside the country.
OBSERVATION - This is deep into the gray zone as far as accuracy goes. However, earlier reports of at least 5 assassination teams in country is considered very likely given the vast numbers of illegals that have poured in and the number of ID’d terrorists that have been released by DHS, not including the ‘got aways’. Cooperation with drug cartels in Mexico is also very plausible, money talks, and they have the ways and means to get something like a MANPAD system(s) into the US undetected.
Trump Force One is a very easily identifiable airplane. Included in the reported security briefing is the effort for him to switch to unmarked, more generic looking aircraft. This would add further credibility to the MANPAD threat.
IMHO, the most likely player in this would be Iran who has already openly threatened Trump’s life. There are other nations/groups out there that would also have the desire to kill Trump, but Iran is the biggest one.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Oct 2- 5: International Bird Flu Summit in DC
Gilead Sciences has announced a recall of its antiviral drug remdesivir.
Remdesivir had a 53% mortality rate in clinical trials done in Africa. This is the same medication they forced on us while preventing us from using hydroxychloroquine & ivermectin!
(Dr Simon Gold on “X”)
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
Debates ???
Vance/walz - Oct. 1
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****
***
Note increased threat on Trump’s life
A New York Appellate Court panel heard oral arguments in former President Trump’s appeal in a civil case brought by New York Attorney General Letitia James. New York Judge Arthur Engoron ordered Trump to pay $454.2 million in penalties in February. Observers note that the panel appeared to be very skeptical toward the judgement and many are thinking that the verdict against trump will tossed.
China –
41 PLA aircraft and 6 PLAN vessels operating around Taiwan were detected up until 6 a.m. (UTC+8) today. 32 of the aircraft crossed the median line and entered Taiwan’s Northern, central, southwestern and eastern ADIZ.
OBSERVATION - Though these incursions have been happening on a daily basis, the number of planes involved is about twice the number of the ongoing average of intrusions.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 70s and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 24 of 32 Shahed-type drones. Kyiv was particularly targeted
Reports that Ukraine has demolished several very large attacks in the Donbas region.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Marynivka village of Donetsk region of Ukraine
Outlook —
No real change in the action. Russian continuing to attack across the Donbas region.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Netanyahu speaks before the UN
- Massive IAF airstrike at what is believed to be the bunker HQ of Nasrallah in Beirut.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
October 2, Rosh Hashana, the Jewish New Year,
Netanyahu addressed UN today, saying Israel will finish what it started and essentially the UN can lead, follow or get out of the way.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Activity levels still continue at fairly low levels.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
BREAKING - At the end of Netanyahu’s UN speech, IAF launched a massive airstrike on the compound in Beirut believed to house Nasrallah’s bunker. F35s with bunker buster bombs carried out the mission. It is estimated no less than 60 bunker-penetrating missiles were launched at Hezbollah headquarters.
Some Hezbollah sources are saying Nasrallah is safe and will soon address the people. Israel believes he was present there at the time of the attack.
LATEST - Tasnim News Agency (IRGC) has now withdrawn their statement which claimed Nasrallah was alive with them now stating they can not confirm his status. The Iranians say that they don’t know what Hassan Nasrallah’s condition is “because the communication with the Dahiyeh has been cut off”.
Netanyahu is cutting short the remainder of his time in the US and is headed back to Israel.
Known fatality is one Hashem Safieddine, head of Hezbollah’s Executive council and widely considered to be the successor to Nasrallah.
Israel did not inform the US of the attack in advance.
The leader of the Christian Kataeb party in Lebanon Sami Gemayel calls on Hezbollah to immediately hand over its weapons and the south to the Lebanese army.
Hezbollah confirms 51-year-old commander Muhammad Husayn Surur was killed in Thursday’s Israeli strike in Beirut’s Dahiyeh. Member since 1986, had a prominent role in the fight in Syria, was in charge of air force (Drones) since 2020. Hezbollah leaders Abbas Ibrahim Sharaf Ad-Din and Hussein Hany were also eliminated.
IAF continues its high intensity bombing campaign, striking several hundred targets overnight.
Hezbollah managed to fire some rockets at Israel, but in highly surpassed numbers.
SURGE IN PRE GROUND ATTACK INDICATORS
- Washington Post: Israeli military convoys mass in the north in preparation for a possible ground incursion into Lebanon
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Syrian Ministry of Defense: Israeli attack at dawn on one of our military sites on the Syrian-Lebanese border near Kfir Yabous in the Damascus countryside. The aggression on the Damascus countryside led to the deaths of 5 soldiers and the injury of another
IDF confirm they have bombed bridges today that link Lebanon to Syria and which is used to transfer weapons.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthis launched a ballistic missile towards Tel Aviv and a drone towards Ashkelon in Israel. Both were taken out by Israeli air defenses.
Initial reports from Yemen indicate a US and UK airstrike in the Saada district in the northern part of the country.
CNN: The US military intercepted a barrage of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and UAVs at two American warships in the Bab al-Mandab Strait area
——— FORECAST ————————-
The fact that Israel targeted the main HQ for Hezbollah is astounding just in itself. The very likely fact that Nasrallah was likely there - and Israel has been very accurate on Hezbollah leaders that have been targeted so far - adds to the mix. Observers judging from the amount of damage are pretty convinced that anyone who was in the bunker at the time is dead.
The impact of the death of Nasrallah is difficult to gauge at this time. So many senior leaders of Hezbollah have been taken out over the past months that picking a successor with enough clout to be recognized as the new leader will be difficult. It will also start of chain of reestablishing links of command as well as the new leader just trying to figure out what has hit Hezbollah.
One other impact - talk of a ceasefire will be quenched for the near future.
Confirmed death will likely accelerate Israel’s preparation for a ground operation, again to strike while the iron is hot. Hezbollah will be even more fractured and demoralized is Nasrallah is dead.
Eyes again look to Iran, who so far in the face of the Israeli full on attacks has been pretty silent. It is hard to see that Iran’s golden boy threat to Israel which they have poured billions of dollars into getting ready for this confrontation being left out to dry, but so far that is what is happening.
Israel has the capability to launch a ground offensive at any time. The question is to hit before or after Rosh Hashana.
Syria -
The United States (U.S.) announces $535 million in additional humanitarian assistance to support the people in Syria
OBSERVATION - Why are we propping up Assad’s govt and its war on the people of Syria?
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Shipuilder Newport News Shipbuilding, Va., informed the Department of Justice of faulty welds that may have been made intentionally on non-critical components on in-service Navy submarines and aircraft carriers, USNI News has learned.
HII reported to the Navy that welds on new construction and in-service submarines and Ford-class aircraft carriers were made not following welding procedure, according to a Tuesday memo from Assistant Secretary of the Navy for Research, Development and Acquisition Nickolas Guertin to Secretary of the Navy Carlos Del Toro and Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Lisa Franchetti.
Guertin told SECNAV and CNO the workers did not follow proper techniques to weld the suspect joints with an early indication that some of the welding errors were intentional. Based on the Newport News assessment of the welds, the shipyard notified the Department of Justice over the issue.
OBSERVATION - Reports that some of these welds were deliberately done. People should be in jail.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Harris not getting any traction from her latest ‘interview’ with MSNBC. Dodging questions and abundant word salads are a driving factor.
Harris FINALLY showed up to to the border and exposed to the disaster she created for the past 3 years.
Illegal Immigration –
Harris/Biden ICE Director ADMITS over 425,000 known convicted criminal illegal immigrants have been RELEASED into the United States including 13,000 who were convicted of homicide and 15,000 convicted of sexual assault.
China –
China’s first Zhou-class submarine, a new nuclear-powered attack vessel, sank earlier this summer at the Wuchang shipyard in Wuhan. The sinking represents a major setback for China’s effort to expand and modernize its naval assets in what has been called an arms race with the U.S.
The sinking occurred dock-side in May or June this year, but was first reported by The Wall Street Journal on Thursday. A senior U.S. defense official, speaking on condition of anonymity, has since confirmed the incident.
https://gcaptain.com/new-chinese-nuclear-submarine-sinks-in-setback-for-navy-expansion/
OBSERVATION - Though improving, Chinese workmanship still has a lot to be desired.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 70s and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The Air Force reports on a combined missile and drone attack overnight.
Shot down:
0/2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles
2/2 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles
69/73 Shahed drones
Three more drones were lost on Ukrainian territory, likely due to electronic warfare. 15 of the drones were shot down in the Kyiv region.
(ISW). Ukrainian forces repelled a reinforced battalion-size Russian mechanized assault in the Kupyansk direction on September 26 — the first large Russian mechanized assault along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line since Winter 2024. Russian forces are likely focusing on establishing a foothold directly on the Oskil River because it would allow Russian forces to envelop Ukrainian positions on the east bank of the river both to the north and south.
Outlook —
The latest Russian larger scale assault in days and same result - taken out big time. Unconfirmed reports that Putin is pressing forces to capture Donbas by the middle of next month may be driving these assaults. The battalion sized force mentioned above had about a dozen tanks and a couple dozen APC (mostly archaic MT-LPs) - all were damaged/destroyed and put out of commission. Also noted in reports were the attack was accompanied by jammers - supposedly to protect against UAV attacks. However, they apparently didn’t work well as the UAVs picked the armor column apart.
Russia also seems to have a substantial supply of shahed style drones and are maintaining a pretty aggressive pattern of larger numbers for attacks. Missing are the more strategic ballistic and cruise missile components of past attacks.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Nasrallah dead after a bold airstrike on his Beirut HQ bunker.
- Iranian leadership heads to bunkers
- Beirut hit with more heavy bombs
——— GENERAL ——————————-
October 2, Rosh Hashana, the Jewish New Year,
Israeli officials: We are preparing for a direct attack from Iran
More details on Reserve Call ups - The IDF called up the 6th and 228th Reserve Brigades, and several additional reserve battalions to enable combat efforts to continue, target Hezbollah’s military capabilities, and create the conditions for residents of northern Israel to return safely to their homes.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Activity levels still continue at fairly low levels.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah has officially announced that its Secretary General Sayed Hasan Nasrallah was killed in the Israeli attack on Friday. This follows some pro-Hezbollah new sources initially saying he was still alive - later to delete their reports.
The IDF spokesman announced yesterday), in addition to killing Nasrallah, they took out Ali Karaki, the commander of the southern front in Hezbollah, and other commanders in Hezbollah.
According to Arab reports, over ten Iranians were eliminated in a building in the Dahieh area of Beirut. Reportedly, this was a senior delegation that had come for a secret meeting with Nasrallah, possibly from the IRGC Al Quds Force. It’s no surprise that a few hours after the elimination, rumors in Iran suggested that the commander of the Al Quds Force was among those killed.
In the aftermath, The IDF is asking the residents of the Dahieh neighborhood to evacuate.
This is the message of the IDF spokesman in Arabic - calling on civilians within 500 meters of the attack site to evacuate immediately! Israel then began bombing the area to take out strategic missile in storage - principally advanced anti-ship missiles - and other Hezbollah facilities.
News of his death sparked celebrations in Syria’s opposition controlled Idlib after Nasrallah was targeted by Israel
Joy in many Sunni communities in Lebanon, Syria and other places, following the news about the successful elimination of Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah!
Israel continued its stepped up attacks on Hezbollah munitions and rocket launching capabilities throughout Lebanon. Israeli army reports 140 other Hezbollah targets were hit in Lebanon last night
Hezbollah response to the loss of Nasrallah has been essentially anemic. A lot of ‘barrages” have been fired at Israel, but may consisted only of a half dozen rockets , evidence that Israel has taken most of the teeth out of that threat.
Lebanese Prime Minister: The government will hold an extraordinary session this evening to discuss current developments
SURGE IN PRE GROUND ATTACK INDICATORS
- IDF: In accordance with the situational assessment, the IDF is calling up three reserve battalions for operational activities and to strengthen the defense in the Central Command.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Overnight (Friday), following IDF intelligence, the IAF struck and eliminated the terrorist Ahmad Muhammad Fahd, Head of the Hamas terrorist network in southern Syria.
Fahd was responsible for carrying out terror attacks against IDF troops and the State of Israel from the area of southern Syria, including firing projectiles toward the Golan Heights area.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli army reinforces its forces in the West Bank with 3 battalions of reserve forces.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
UK Foreign Office: British citizens are required to leave Lebanon now. Working to increase the capacity for the safe evacuation of British citizens
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel has gone into full honey badger mode and it is an incredible sight.
Historically, Israel has buckled under primarily US pressure to stop its fight and accept ceasefire conditions not in their favor. Israel has also been pressured to not to attack any sites associated with civilian facilities (ie, under them). This phase of the war Israel is going ahead to close in and destroy both Hamas and Hezbollah. The decimation of Hezbollah’s leadership has been incredible and the final blow to take out Nasrallah the capstone of some incredible intelligence work.
Some are thinking that Netanyahu’s UN address was a diversion to lull Hezbollah & Nasrallah into a false sense of security. Add to this the ceasefire hints from Netanyahu’s office were also part of the deception. If this is the case, then the skill of the Netanyahu’s staff and officers is to be saluted as well. As some commentators are noting, Israel is speaking in a clear voice the language that the arab world understands.
All eyes on Iran. The unprecedented collapse of Hezbollah over the past few weeks has put them in between a rock and a hard place. Nasrallah’s death, in addition to the decimation of almost all of the higher and mid level commanders has left Hezbollah rudderless. The destruction of comms have made matters worse. Now Iran has to fish or cut bait, so to speak. Inaction by Iran would be viewed in the arab world as a supreme sign of weakness, and to do so in front of the Israelis almost unspeakable. Iran is becoming aware that Israel is not fighting has it has in the past and is going for the jugular. With Hamas essentially gone and Hezbollah on its last legs, Iran is having to rely upon less reliable militias in Syria, Iraq and Yemen for proxy support.
As stated below “ Israel may destroy its oil industry and nuclear facilities.” Israel has many more weapons in its arsenal besides fighter/bombers to accomplish this - cruise missile carrying subs and ballistic missiles.
Iran has some capability to strike at Israel with drones, and various missiles as they did in April, but the venerability of those weapons to counter measures (and general misfires) along with threat by counter attacks may put them on continued hold. I don’t see any immediate strikes being launched by Iran before the Israeli ground offensive kicks off.
Current call ups indicate that the time for ground ops is fast approaching. To properly clear out Hezbollah from the region south of the Litiani River, ground forces have to go in. The decimation of Hezbollah’s command and control of recent days, combined with the aggressive air campaign to prepare the battlefield will greatly assist the ground assault. There will be pockets of die hard Hezbollah jihadis, but the likelihood that they will receive any support from other units are slim and will be defeated in detail.
Israel will continue to increase targeting of Hezbollah strategic systems - primarily guided and ballistic missiles - stationed further north in Lebanon. Again, loss of command and control has left operators without orders and in their efforts to try to contact higher headquarters - very prone to SIGINT detection and other OPSEC failures.
Iran –
News that the commanders of the Iranian army and the Revolutionary Guards were convened for an urgent and special meeting at his residence. Additional unconfirmed, but likely, reports are thatchy have fled to underground bunkers.
Iran is debating how to respond, on the one hand it must avenge the death of Hassan Nasrallah, but on the other hand it is still afraid of a regional war and that Israel may destroy its oil industry and nuclear facilities.
OBSERVATION - Iran is facing what was once considered inconceivable. The crumbling of Hezbollah and the willingness of Israel to strike targets once thought to be protected has thrown war plans into disarray. Israel’s demonstration in April of the ease they could destroy key Iranian targets weighs heavily too.
Misc of Note –
Hurricane Helene wreaking havoc in the southeast. Stay safe and heed warnings.