Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Shipuilder Newport News Shipbuilding, Va., informed the Department of Justice of faulty welds that may have been made intentionally on non-critical components on in-service Navy submarines and aircraft carriers, USNI News has learned.
HII reported to the Navy that welds on new construction and in-service submarines and Ford-class aircraft carriers were made not following welding procedure, according to a Tuesday memo from Assistant Secretary of the Navy for Research, Development and Acquisition Nickolas Guertin to Secretary of the Navy Carlos Del Toro and Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Lisa Franchetti.
Guertin told SECNAV and CNO the workers did not follow proper techniques to weld the suspect joints with an early indication that some of the welding errors were intentional. Based on the Newport News assessment of the welds, the shipyard notified the Department of Justice over the issue.
OBSERVATION - Reports that some of these welds were deliberately done. People should be in jail.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Harris not getting any traction from her latest ‘interview’ with MSNBC. Dodging questions and abundant word salads are a driving factor.
Harris FINALLY showed up to to the border and exposed to the disaster she created for the past 3 years.
Illegal Immigration –
Harris/Biden ICE Director ADMITS over 425,000 known convicted criminal illegal immigrants have been RELEASED into the United States including 13,000 who were convicted of homicide and 15,000 convicted of sexual assault.
China –
China’s first Zhou-class submarine, a new nuclear-powered attack vessel, sank earlier this summer at the Wuchang shipyard in Wuhan. The sinking represents a major setback for China’s effort to expand and modernize its naval assets in what has been called an arms race with the U.S.
The sinking occurred dock-side in May or June this year, but was first reported by The Wall Street Journal on Thursday. A senior U.S. defense official, speaking on condition of anonymity, has since confirmed the incident.
https://gcaptain.com/new-chinese-nuclear-submarine-sinks-in-setback-for-navy-expansion/
OBSERVATION - Though improving, Chinese workmanship still has a lot to be desired.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 70s and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The Air Force reports on a combined missile and drone attack overnight.
Shot down:
0/2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles
2/2 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles
69/73 Shahed drones
Three more drones were lost on Ukrainian territory, likely due to electronic warfare. 15 of the drones were shot down in the Kyiv region.
(ISW). Ukrainian forces repelled a reinforced battalion-size Russian mechanized assault in the Kupyansk direction on September 26 — the first large Russian mechanized assault along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line since Winter 2024. Russian forces are likely focusing on establishing a foothold directly on the Oskil River because it would allow Russian forces to envelop Ukrainian positions on the east bank of the river both to the north and south.
Outlook —
The latest Russian larger scale assault in days and same result - taken out big time. Unconfirmed reports that Putin is pressing forces to capture Donbas by the middle of next month may be driving these assaults. The battalion sized force mentioned above had about a dozen tanks and a couple dozen APC (mostly archaic MT-LPs) - all were damaged/destroyed and put out of commission. Also noted in reports were the attack was accompanied by jammers - supposedly to protect against UAV attacks. However, they apparently didn’t work well as the UAVs picked the armor column apart.
Russia also seems to have a substantial supply of shahed style drones and are maintaining a pretty aggressive pattern of larger numbers for attacks. Missing are the more strategic ballistic and cruise missile components of past attacks.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Nasrallah dead after a bold airstrike on his Beirut HQ bunker.
- Iranian leadership heads to bunkers
- Beirut hit with more heavy bombs
——— GENERAL ——————————-
October 2, Rosh Hashana, the Jewish New Year,
Israeli officials: We are preparing for a direct attack from Iran
More details on Reserve Call ups - The IDF called up the 6th and 228th Reserve Brigades, and several additional reserve battalions to enable combat efforts to continue, target Hezbollah’s military capabilities, and create the conditions for residents of northern Israel to return safely to their homes.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Activity levels still continue at fairly low levels.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah has officially announced that its Secretary General Sayed Hasan Nasrallah was killed in the Israeli attack on Friday. This follows some pro-Hezbollah new sources initially saying he was still alive - later to delete their reports.
The IDF spokesman announced yesterday), in addition to killing Nasrallah, they took out Ali Karaki, the commander of the southern front in Hezbollah, and other commanders in Hezbollah.
According to Arab reports, over ten Iranians were eliminated in a building in the Dahieh area of Beirut. Reportedly, this was a senior delegation that had come for a secret meeting with Nasrallah, possibly from the IRGC Al Quds Force. It’s no surprise that a few hours after the elimination, rumors in Iran suggested that the commander of the Al Quds Force was among those killed.
In the aftermath, The IDF is asking the residents of the Dahieh neighborhood to evacuate.
This is the message of the IDF spokesman in Arabic - calling on civilians within 500 meters of the attack site to evacuate immediately! Israel then began bombing the area to take out strategic missile in storage - principally advanced anti-ship missiles - and other Hezbollah facilities.
News of his death sparked celebrations in Syria’s opposition controlled Idlib after Nasrallah was targeted by Israel
Joy in many Sunni communities in Lebanon, Syria and other places, following the news about the successful elimination of Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah!
Israel continued its stepped up attacks on Hezbollah munitions and rocket launching capabilities throughout Lebanon. Israeli army reports 140 other Hezbollah targets were hit in Lebanon last night
Hezbollah response to the loss of Nasrallah has been essentially anemic. A lot of ‘barrages” have been fired at Israel, but may consisted only of a half dozen rockets , evidence that Israel has taken most of the teeth out of that threat.
Lebanese Prime Minister: The government will hold an extraordinary session this evening to discuss current developments
SURGE IN PRE GROUND ATTACK INDICATORS
- IDF: In accordance with the situational assessment, the IDF is calling up three reserve battalions for operational activities and to strengthen the defense in the Central Command.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Overnight (Friday), following IDF intelligence, the IAF struck and eliminated the terrorist Ahmad Muhammad Fahd, Head of the Hamas terrorist network in southern Syria.
Fahd was responsible for carrying out terror attacks against IDF troops and the State of Israel from the area of southern Syria, including firing projectiles toward the Golan Heights area.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli army reinforces its forces in the West Bank with 3 battalions of reserve forces.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
UK Foreign Office: British citizens are required to leave Lebanon now. Working to increase the capacity for the safe evacuation of British citizens
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel has gone into full honey badger mode and it is an incredible sight.
Historically, Israel has buckled under primarily US pressure to stop its fight and accept ceasefire conditions not in their favor. Israel has also been pressured to not to attack any sites associated with civilian facilities (ie, under them). This phase of the war Israel is going ahead to close in and destroy both Hamas and Hezbollah. The decimation of Hezbollah’s leadership has been incredible and the final blow to take out Nasrallah the capstone of some incredible intelligence work.
Some are thinking that Netanyahu’s UN address was a diversion to lull Hezbollah & Nasrallah into a false sense of security. Add to this the ceasefire hints from Netanyahu’s office were also part of the deception. If this is the case, then the skill of the Netanyahu’s staff and officers is to be saluted as well. As some commentators are noting, Israel is speaking in a clear voice the language that the arab world understands.
All eyes on Iran. The unprecedented collapse of Hezbollah over the past few weeks has put them in between a rock and a hard place. Nasrallah’s death, in addition to the decimation of almost all of the higher and mid level commanders has left Hezbollah rudderless. The destruction of comms have made matters worse. Now Iran has to fish or cut bait, so to speak. Inaction by Iran would be viewed in the arab world as a supreme sign of weakness, and to do so in front of the Israelis almost unspeakable. Iran is becoming aware that Israel is not fighting has it has in the past and is going for the jugular. With Hamas essentially gone and Hezbollah on its last legs, Iran is having to rely upon less reliable militias in Syria, Iraq and Yemen for proxy support.
As stated below “ Israel may destroy its oil industry and nuclear facilities.” Israel has many more weapons in its arsenal besides fighter/bombers to accomplish this - cruise missile carrying subs and ballistic missiles.
Iran has some capability to strike at Israel with drones, and various missiles as they did in April, but the venerability of those weapons to counter measures (and general misfires) along with threat by counter attacks may put them on continued hold. I don’t see any immediate strikes being launched by Iran before the Israeli ground offensive kicks off.
Current call ups indicate that the time for ground ops is fast approaching. To properly clear out Hezbollah from the region south of the Litiani River, ground forces have to go in. The decimation of Hezbollah’s command and control of recent days, combined with the aggressive air campaign to prepare the battlefield will greatly assist the ground assault. There will be pockets of die hard Hezbollah jihadis, but the likelihood that they will receive any support from other units are slim and will be defeated in detail.
Israel will continue to increase targeting of Hezbollah strategic systems - primarily guided and ballistic missiles - stationed further north in Lebanon. Again, loss of command and control has left operators without orders and in their efforts to try to contact higher headquarters - very prone to SIGINT detection and other OPSEC failures.
Iran –
News that the commanders of the Iranian army and the Revolutionary Guards were convened for an urgent and special meeting at his residence. Additional unconfirmed, but likely, reports are thatchy have fled to underground bunkers.
Iran is debating how to respond, on the one hand it must avenge the death of Hassan Nasrallah, but on the other hand it is still afraid of a regional war and that Israel may destroy its oil industry and nuclear facilities.
OBSERVATION - Iran is facing what was once considered inconceivable. The crumbling of Hezbollah and the willingness of Israel to strike targets once thought to be protected has thrown war plans into disarray. Israel’s demonstration in April of the ease they could destroy key Iranian targets weighs heavily too.
Misc of Note –
Hurricane Helene wreaking havoc in the southeast. Stay safe and heed warnings.
Thanks, Godzilla.
This reeks of 'Didn't Earn It') DEI hiring practices...
Globalism / Great Reset –
John Kerry says, “It is harder to build consensus today” because the 1st Amendment blocks the censorship of “disinformation.”
OBSERVATION - Lurch has problems with the First Amendment apparently. The cries of the necessity to censor “disinformation” have been increasingly on the rise throughout the globalist realm as well in the US political. Following Orwell.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Sep 21, 2024 due to threat to shoot down Trump.
RUMINT - (via X) Former Navy SEAL Shawn Ryan warns Joe Rogan that the Taliban is funneling terrorists into the U.S. through the southern border with plans for “October 7th-style attacks.”
OBSERVATION - This assessment has a degree of plausibility given the vast numbers of potential islamic fanatics (in the hundreds of thousands) that are believed to have come across the border in the past four years and the demonstrated, asymmetrical attack strategies they have employed in the past. Relatively small teams of around half a dozen men have caused a lot of damage in Europe and Russia in the past years. Imagine 10 (or more) such teams in the US!
Still a heavy thought with a normalcy biased mindset, but 100% plausible in today’s biden dumpster fire.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Over 700 Tennessee National Guard Soldiers Deploy to Kuwait
NOTE this is leaving Tennessee short handed in dealing with the ongoing floods.
Cyber attacks/warfare – Moderate ALERT as of Sep 1, 2024
The private information of almost one-third of the population of the United States has been leaked following a security lapse within a major corporation responsible for conducting background checks.
The affected company, MC2 Data, provides background check services. The company collects, organizes and analyzes data from a vast range of public sources, such as criminal records, employment histories, family data and contact details.
Cyber News reported that the total number of people affected by the data breach is 106,316,633. MC2 is being accused of leaving a database with 2.2 terabytes worth of information without a password and readily accessible on the open web, raising serious concerns regarding the ability of MC2 Data to protect the privacy and safety of people it conducts background searches on.
People and organizations who require background check services from MC2 Data have also been exposed. The data of 2,319,873 users subscribed to MC2 Data services was also leaked.
https://www.naturalnews.com/2024-09-27-data-leak-exposes-private-info-100m-americans.html
OBSERVATION - Megabreaches like this have become common over the past couple years. I expect the globalist side of world domination to try to weave these breaches into arguments for biometrical based digital ID’s in the near future. Yep, creating the problem then coming up with the solution they want.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 70s and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian drones attacked an airfield in Yeysk, Russia, where Kinzhal ballistic missiles might have been stored, according to Russian media. Explosions were also heard near a power plant in Volgodonsk, and an ammunition depot was likely hit in the village of Kotluban. In Voronezh, debris from a downed drone struck a residential building. Meanwhile, Russia’s Ministry of Defense claimed to have intercepted and destroyed 125 drones.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 15 of 22 Shahed-type drones overnight
Russia launched record 1312 Shahed-type drones during last 30 days, twice as much as any previous peak. Though likely using stockpiled drones in previous periods, just fixed all logistics issues. Also steady increase in usage of glide bombs, with a peak of 841 during 7 days.
Russian Ministry of Defense claimed full occupation of Makiivka village in Luhansk region of Ukraine
Outlook —
Russia is failing to retake Kursk - no movement in days there.
Russian attacks along the entire Donbas front over the past week were large and largely unsuccessful, with high personnel and equipment losses.
Both sided continue the drone wars with large numbers of attacks daily. Russia seems to be withholding its stock of more advanced ballistic and cruise missile for another large, future combined strike.
Russia’s threats of nuclear strikes earlier in week seem to have had the desired results in stopping momentum to give Ukraine the green light for deep strikes using western munitions.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Nasrallah’s replacement has already been reported as being killed in airstrikes.
- Limited recons into Lebanon by Israeli special ops reportedly occurred overnight.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
October 2, Rosh Hashana, the Jewish New Year,
Israeli Army Radio announces the assassination of Nasrallah’s advisor Samir Tawfiq Deeb. And the assassination of Nasrallah’s security unit chief Ibrahim Eini.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Activity levels still continue at fairly low levels.
Since Sinwar has ceased communications with Hamas elements, only one minor rocket shooting occurred in Gaza over the last two weeks. Raises further questions about his health or death.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The IDF says: “We are focused on weakening Hezbollah day after day. Every day the war plan focuses on something else - so that Hezbollah will be on the way down. We have another considerable basket of tools - to create conditions for the return of residents to the north. They are also working to kill the people who will now replace Nasrallah .”
RELATED - Hezbollah’s new leader, Kassan Khalil Yassin, who just replaced Hassan Nasrallah hours ago, has been killed by the IDF.
ABC reports Israeli Small-scale operations or “border movements” into Lebanon to take out Hezbollah positions right on the border have begun or are about to.
Reports Israel has commenced ground force operations into Lebanon, likely initial SF Ops and reconnaissance. A larger ground offensive is very possible whilst the Hezbollah command and control capability is significantly incapacitated
The Israeli Defense Force has begun or is about to begin a limited ground operation against Hezbollah in Lebanon, according to multiple US officials, with armored vehicles and troops reportedly entering southern Lebanon in several areas along the border.
IDF forces are deployed on the Northern border
Reuters: The body of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah was recovered from the site of the strike in the southern suburb.
RUMINT. Iran is preparing to send troops to Lebanon in the coming days, per NBC reports.
PRE GROUND ATTACK INDICATORS
- Recons penetrating into Lebanon by Israeli Special Ops.
- Israeli forces are deployed along the border and no longer in assembly areas.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Syria: area of Yafour, in West Damascus province, and close to the Lebanese border was bombed by Israel. Target still undisclosed.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The pro-Iranian militias in Iraq claim that they attacked a “vital target” in Eilat this morning with a UAV.
This is the second time within 6 hours they claim to have sent a UAV towards Eilat.
——— FORECAST ————————-
(ISW) Observers are noting that Hezbollah appears to be suffering from temporary organizational paralysis, as it has not responded to Israel in any meaningful way and has failed to stop Israel from targeting its key leadership or to take the necessary steps to protect that leadership.
By my observations, the next phase of the Israeli operation, being a ground assault, is imminent. Strong probability of special ops forces now operating in S Lebanon indicate time is short for the offensive to start. Israel’s continued hits on Hezbollah leadership and comms has maintained the confusion of the remaining Hezbollah forces, keeping them very vulnerable to the Israeli ground assault.
Hezbollah response to the death of Nasrallah continues to be uncoordinated and generally weak. Remember, Hezbollah had the capability to launch thousands of rockets a day into Israel, now reduced to less than 100. Hezbollah’s strategic guided ballistic missile forces in N Lebanon have been largely silent and under the eyes of Israeli intel to be blown up like the other elements. Again, no command authority to tell them what to do.
Iran continues to show evidence of not willing to do anything overt to give the Israelis reason to take out their oil and nuclear ambitions and infrastructure. The rumored dispatch of troops to Lebanon is highly sketchy and fraught with hazards. If they attempt to bring in by plane - Israel will shoot it down. If by ground, columns of transport vehicles would also be a juicy target for Israeli jet bombers. These Iranian forces would essentially be light foot soldiers, lacking any armor.
Syria is a potential helper, however, its forces are struggling to eliminate resistance in the Idlib region as well as keep ISIS at bay. A decade of civil war has stretched it forces out to the point where they rely on Iranian and Russian direct combat support.
Iraq based Iranian militias along with the Houthi in Yemen have attempted to step up their game. They lack the volume and quality of weapons to be a serious threat to Israel. Their attacks have mostly been at a level of annoyance.
In summary, we will be seeing the Israeli invasion into S Lebanon and the Bekkaa valley very, very soon. Netanyahu is in full honey badger mode and the momentum gained the past couple weeks will not be wasted. Once the ground invasion kicks off, Iran will be faced with another decision point - to more directly involve the country in the fight and to what extent.
Iran –
New York Times: Khamenei’s emergency meeting after Nasrallah’s killing saw divisions over how to respond.
Israel PM Netanyahu says “there is no place in Iran that we cannot reach”
***
Analysts / observers are noting that Iran is having a difficult time coming to grips with the Israeli hit on Beirut. Some conservative factions want immediate, militarily responses no matter the cost while reformist Pezeshkian, rseeks to de-escalate tensions with the U.S. and lift sanctions, warned against a harsh and quick response, urging caution to avoid falling into what he claims is Netanyahu’s trap –a bid to provoke a regional war.
Moderate council members expressed during the meeting that Israel has “crossed all red lines,” while voicing concerns that an Iranian attack on Israel might invite a direct counterstrike against critical infrastructure within the Islamic Republic. Given its current economic fragility, they argued, Iran cannot afford such a confrontation.
Analysts consulting with the New York Times suggested that Khamenei’s remarks indicate that Iran currently lacks an effective strategy to counter Israel’s assaults on its proxies. “Faced with the choice between full-scale war with Israel and ‘lowering its profile’ for self-preservation, it seems to opt for the latter,” they wrote.
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/rjvubdlcc#autoplay
Iraq -
Saudi report: “All Iraqi security forces have entered a state of maximum alertness, there is an expectation of imminent Israeli attacks in Iraq.”
Syria -
U.S. airstrikes on Syria kill 37 militants affiliated with Iranian extremist groups
An unidentified drone has targeted a military convoy belonging to the IRGC militias near the town of Al-Quriyah in eastern Deir ez-Zur countryside.
Over night airstrikes hit several IRGC-linked positions in Deir Ezzor city and area of Abukemal. An air defense position also possibly targeted.Many dead reported, including foreign fighters. Bombardment was likely carried out by US, following attack on the US Conoco base
Misc of Note –
Remnants of Helene still battering the southeast. Be alert and safe out there.
This storm should serve as a dramatic reminder that you are your own first responder in disasters.