Posted on 01/01/2024 5:05:22 AM PST by Godzilla
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
This could be pasted on several topic within this post, but overall, it seems to best fit here for now.
Campaigners are urging consumers to stop buying Tyson products amid its wave of closures of poultry- and meat-processing plants across Iowa, Virginia, Arkansas, Indiana, and Missouri.
They point to Tyson’s efforts to hire thousands of asylum seekers in New York, offering $16.50-an-hour wages and free immigration lawyers, accusing the firm of ditching US-born workers for cheaper migrant labor.Tyson foods is about to be in a world of hurt for firing Americans and hiring ‘asylum seekers’.
The meat-packer already employs about 42,000 immigrants among its 120,000-strong US workforce, and seeks to boost this by cooperating with the Tent Partnership for Refugees, a nonprofit, among other efforts.
‘We would like to employ another 42,000 if we could find them,’ Garrett Dolan, who leads Tyson’s social efforts, told Bloomberg recently.
In recent weeks, the company hired dozens of asylum seekers from Venezuela, Mexico, and Colombia at a job fair in New York City. They travelled to work at its poultry plant in Humboldt, Tennessee.
According to Dolan, asylum seekers fill the gaps at plants with a high turnover of staff — the company needs to fill 52,000 jobs this year.
Tyson Foods Quietly Partnered with Protix for more “Sustainable Protein Production”. Protix is the leading global insect ingredients company.
Last year, China-based Shandong Bao Shuan Group purchased a majority stake in Tyson Foods…
Through a direct equity investment, Tyson Foods will acquire a minority stake in Protix to help fund its global expansion.
In addition, Tyson Foods and Protix have entered a joint venture for the operation and construction of an insect ingredient facility in the continental United States.
OBSERVATION - Replacement ‘conspiracy’, globalist food control (you vill eatz de bugs and be happy), and Chinese overlords. These illegals will be far more willing to work as dirt cheap labor prices. But then again - food safety becomes an increasing concern.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
(FO) Poor People’s Economic Human Rights Campaign, who refer to themselves as the “Poor People’s Army,” are planning protests at the Democratic (DNC) and Republican National Conventions (RNC) this summer.
The reported plan is, following the 15 July RNC protest in Milwaukee, WI, the group is scheduled to march 100 miles to Chicago, IL for the 19 August DNC. The group will make stops along the march to spread their message that both Democrats and Republicans are “dead-end parties” pursuing corporatist policies at home and war abroad.
OBSERVATION - The nature and level of political based violence at both conventions is still speculatory. Numerous democrat groups in Chicago have been on record saying they will make things hot for democrats after having tens of thousands of illegals dumped on their front doors, taking away their govt goodies. Pro-hamas elements are likely to protest there as well - especially if the situation in the Gaza war spins up further.
Violence at the RNC is a certain given Trump’s selection as the presidential candidate. Anarchists and leftists will be out in force. Current assessment on my part is that both conventions will have to deal with serious rioting.
Terrorism -
Ramadan began March 11th.
This warning UPDATED as of March 3, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
RELATED - Israel’s National Security Council (NSC) on Wednesday issued a travel warning for Ramadan, warning of the possibility of attacks on Israeli and Western targets around the world.
POLITICAL FRONT –
March 22, second funding deadline
***
This will not be the final word on this soap opera, stay tuned for season 2.
“I think the result is utterly dishonest,” Harvard Law Professor Alan Dershowitz said Friday after Fulton County Georgia Superior Court Judge Scott McAfee ruled that, even though she committed several offenses, Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis can proceed with her election interference prosecution of Donald Trump.
“We all know there was an actual conflict of interest here,” Dershowitz said in an interview with Newsmax, adding that Judge McAfee “just didn’t have the guts to say it.”
“And this is a weaselly way out,” Dershowitz said.
Dershowitz said the ruling greatly compromises the nation’s legal system, because it’s obvious to anyone who followed the case that, at the very least, Willis’ affair, and money exchanged with, a prosecutor on the case displayed the appearance of impropriety required to remove her.
“Who are you going to believe, this judge or your lying eyes?” Dershowitz asked, rhetorically.
“If anybody believes that she (Willis) actually paid back every penny in cash (to her prosecutor-lover), I got a bridge to sell you in Brooklyn,” Dershowitz said.
People are on death row, based on weaker evidence than that against Wills, Dershowitz observed.
“There are people in prison, there are people in death row, based on evidence less strong than this.”
“This is a scandal and the judge just didn’t have the courage to do the right thing,” Dershowitz said.
***
They are still counting ballots in kalifornia to decide the Senate race for feinswines’ seat. Yep, well over a week now and they still haven’t found the boxes of ‘votes’ to put Schiff over the finish line.
***
The Republican National Committee (RNC) under new chair Lara Trump announced on Friday that they will be working closely with Scott Presler to increase voter turnout ahead of the US 2024 Presidential Election in November.
The announcement was made by the RNC’s new co-chair, Lara Trump. Scott Presler is a prominent conservative activist who has become notable for registering thousands of conservative voters and teaching at voter registration workshops across the country.
OBSERVATION - This is in addition to the jettisoning of several dozen pieces of deadwood in the RNC offices.
Illegal Immigration –
A boat carrying 25 illegal aliens from Haiti has been intercepted in waters near Florida, according to the state’s Governor, Ron DeSantis.
DeSantis told a press conference this afternoon: “They had firearms, they had drugs, they had night vision gear...That vessel was interdicted, those illegal aliens were turned over to the Coast Guard for deportation.”
Officers from the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC) were conducting a patrol near Sebastian Inlet at 7.30pm on Thursday, February 29.
They stopped a 42-foot vessel which was involved in what they described as a “human smuggling operation.”
Investigators found onboard 25 individuals, including five unaccompanied children, alongside the weapons, night vision gear and drugs.
https://www.the-express.com/news/us-news/131270/haiti-migrants-arrested-florida-guns-ron-desantis
OBSERVATION - Weapons, NVGs and drugs - just the kind of wonderful cultural enhancers biden wants for this country.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner but are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed. However, as seen in Avdiivka, when Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with 7 Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer).
*****
Russian presidential election thru March 17
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-50 range. Slight chance of snow/rain showers in extended forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The ground component of the Russian offensive appears to have stalled, combat very limited and not confirmed territorial gains. Most action was in the Avdiivka sector.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 2 of 2 Shahed drones overnight.
Ukraine drones attacked the Syzran and Novokuibyshevsky oil refineries in the Samara region, a fire broke out at both locations according to the regional governor.
Outlook —
News on the “Legion’s “ exploits have dropped off, though Bolograd remains under artillery fire.
Ukraine’s long war against Russian petroleum facilities continues with successes. As I’ve noted before, Russia is a big country with lots of targets that they are unable to cover adequately with their ADA assets. Petroleum facilities are good targets for these drones as it only takes a small amount of explosives to set off fuel storage tanks and the like, which spread damage to adjacent systems.
I’ve also been assessing reports of Russian ‘successes’ in striking key Ukrainian assets Among these are recent hits on Patriot systems, HIMARS launchers and helicopters. A lot of speculation ranging from the new national leader being less OPSEC conscience to says successfully infiltrating into Ukraine and passing time critical targeting information to dedicated Russian strategic/tactical assets.
Finally, action along the fronts is stable and on a lowered level of action. It seems that Russia has lost a serious degree of momentum and initiative. If what I’m seeing is correct, the cause may well be the massive losses Russia suffered to gain Avdiivka combined with terrible logistical support.
Belarus -
Belarus pro freedom sources are noting unusual helicopter traffic. They noted “that a camouflaged command post of the Belarusian and Russian Armed Forces is located on the territory of “Site 400. Kupol”. For the first time we told about this place on the 14th day of the war (motolko.help/en-news/is-the…). Six months later, we came to the conclusion that GPS-jamming near Minsk became a harbinger of war (motolko.help/en-news/how-gp… ). Since then, EW work near Minsk has been virtually unabated, and has only intensified in recent months.”
They don’t see any current threat of a repeat of an invasion as in 2022, but there are some parallels. There are no Russian forces in the area as in 2022, leaving Belarus military in the overall region.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 11 - April 8
Key overnight developments -
- Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave the green light on Friday for Israel to launch a ground invasion into Rafah.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
U.S. President Joe Biden said on Friday that Chuck Schumer made a “good speech” the previous day in which the Senate majority leader called for new elections in Israel and harshly criticized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as an obstacle to peace
***
Bipartisan group of 8 US senators, including SFRC chairman & ranking member, call for Qatar to expel Hamas if talks fail. “If Hamas refuses reasonable negotiations, there is no reason for Qatar to continue hosting Hamas’ political office or any of its members in Doha.”
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Some troop rotations ongoing, bringing in fresh forces.
Overnight, Israeli army artillery and air strikes hit throughout the strip non stop as well as heavy fighting.
Prime Minister Netanyahu has authorized plans for a military operation in Rafah. The IDF is gearing up for the operational aspect and the evacuation of the local population from the area.
***
Amid calls for more ‘food’ relief to enter Gaza, the actual count of trucks entering the strip have reportedly exceeded the average number pre-war. Hamas continues to hijack trucks, and then sell the food on the black market.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israel security forces arrested at least 20 Palestinians from the West Bank last night, including former prisoners.
Clashes broke out between youths and security forces inside the village of Arbouna, east of Jenin
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Senior figures from Hamas and Yemen’s Houthi rebels held a rare meeting to discuss coordinating their actions against Israel, according to a Western report citing Palestinian sources.
This comes as Houthi spokesman Nasr Al-Din Amer announced Hamas is holding the crew of a ship seized by Yemenite jihadis in November.
The Galaxy Leader cargo ship was hijacked the Red Sea 116 days ago with the jihadists having laid siege to the ship and taken hostage the ship’s crew of 17 Filipinos, two Bulgarians, three Ukrainians, two Mexicans and a Romanian.
***
The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), a Marxist-Leninist terrorist group based in Gaza, published a communique saying they “[hold] the American administration and the war criminal Biden responsible” for the anticipated Israeli military occupation of Rafah.
***
A shipment of weapons belonging to Iranian militias was destroyed by US strikes after arriving in Deir Ezzor.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Calls from various govts and international agencies for a ceasefire and two state solution continue to be made. Now the call for no attack on Rafah as well.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel continues to isolate and eliminate remaining Hamas et al cells throughout Gaza. IAF continues to uncover thousands and thousands of cumulative meters of tunnels and bunkers beneath northern and central Gaza. The pattern remains consistent, in that these tunnels tend to be located adjacent to or beneath civilian features. Clearing and destruction of these tunnels is a long process as they have to have booby traps neutralized, items of intelligence worth found and retrieved and explosives set to destroy them. And because Hamas located these tunnels under schools, mosques, hospitals and civilian apartments, the destruction of those tunnels damages/destroys the overlying surface features too.
With Israel apparently giving the military the go for Rafah operations, one can see the clear effort of Hamas to stall the effort with a disingenuous hostage plan. And there are no guarantees that Hamas will hold up their end of the bargain. It is all eyewash to project to the world that they are the victim. Movement of non-combatants out of Rafah have been ongoing for a while and with the GO order, the movement should increase substantially.
“Resistance” efforts in eastern Syria and Iraq continue on the quiet side. Houthis manage to shoot some drones/missiles off on a daily basis, but are also sustaining losses of equipment and munitions in pre-launch configuration. I don’t have the latest on the IRGC Beshar intel vessel believed to be supplying the targeting data to the Houthi, so my general inference is that the vessel continues to be in ‘safe’ harbor and not contributing to targeting efforts.
For now, things have calmed a little between Israel and Hezbollah. But i don’t believe that the calm will last for much longer. Ramadan hype and a move on Rafah by Israel may trigger a substantial attack by Hezbollah. Whether or not it reaches the level of a preemptive strike is unknown at this time. I still see Israel holding off the fight in the north until Rafah is subdued and forces/materials can be redirected to the north.
Happy wear’in of the green to all, looking forward to corn beef and cabbage (along with many rueben sandwiches next week.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
More than 140 House Democrats are demanding that the ability to bar veterans from gun purchases/ownership under certain circumstances be added back to the Military Construction, Veterans Affairs, and Related Agencies Appropriations Act.
For decades, the VA has been reporting veterans to the National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) for mental issues, and such issues include using a fiduciary to manage one’s VA benefits. But this year, the Clinton-era gun ban was rolled back in the Senate by an amendment put forward by Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA).
Following the adoption of his amendment, Kennedy said, “Unelected bureaucrats shouldn’t be able to strip veterans of their Second Amendment rights unilaterally. The Senate did the right thing for veterans and all freedom-loving Americans by passing my amendment today.”
OBSERVATION - We are currently well in the ‘nibbling along the edges’ stage of the final attempts to establish a totalitarian society. The left views veterans as a dangerous group to their goals and have gone after cracks in the laws to force their objectives. Vets by and large are conservative, patriotic group and when the chips are down, more likely to arm up against a degenerate govt. This was at least a step in the right direction for all our rights.
***
Judicial Watch received ATF documents showing that the CIA had multiple operators at the Capitol on J6.
OBSERVATION - Just about every govt agency and their dog were in on the activities surrounding J6 false flag. What continues to concern me is the presence of CIA - who by law is forbidden to spy on US civilians (absent a few key exemptions) and monitoring by the NSA (once again, forbidden by law to collect on US citizens except for a few narrow exemptions).
Terrorism -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
This warning UPDATED as of March 3, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
RELATED - Israel’s National Security Council (NSC) on Wednesday issued a travel warning for Ramadan, warning of the possibility of attacks on Israeli and Western targets around the world.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The Bataan Amphibious Ready Group will return home on Saturday after more than eight months deployed to the Middle East and Mediterranean Sea.
The Bataan Amphibious Ready Group – USS Bataan (LHD-5), USS Carter Hall (LSD-50) and USS Mesa Verde (LPD-19) – deployed in July, with Bataan and Mesa Verde leaving from Naval Station Norfolk, Va., while Carter Hall left from Joint Expeditionary Base Little Creek-Fort Story, Va.
OBSERVATION - This leaves the Eisenhower CSG is still operating in the Red Sea, leaving the Med without a carrier strike group or ARG.
Illegal Immigration –
NYC reevaluating its mandatory housing laws for homeless (now predominantly illegals) as space available goes to zero and costs skyrocket.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner but are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed. However, as seen in Avdiivka, when Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with 7 Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer).
*****
Russian presidential election thru March 17
***
Russia accused Ukraine on Saturday of using “terrorist activities” to try to disrupt its presidential election and former President Dmitry Medvedev decried as “traitors” the scattered protesters who have tried to set fire to voting booths and pour dye into ballot boxes.
“Voting” will be ending today and putin is a given to be reelected.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-50 range. Slight chance of snow/rain showers in extended forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 14 of 16 Shahed drones. Russian army also launched 5 S-300 missiles and 2 Kh-59 missiles.
However, it is being observed that Russia has not launched a large-scale missile strike on Ukraine for 38 days. The last large-scale missile strike was on February 7th when Russia launched 31 X-101/Kalibr cruise missiles and 7 Iskander and Kh-22 missiles at Ukraine.
Some speculate it is due to the lack of A50 support. Also, Black Sea fleet assets capable of cruise missile launches have avoided entering the Black Sea for at least a couple of weeks now.
Ukraine, OTOH, kept Russia very busy overnight with about 12 different Russian ADA sites across western Russia engaging Ukraine drones, reportedly downing 35 drones altogether. Ukraine struck an oil depot in Slavyansk-on-Kuban in Russia located 300km from the frontline with at least 7 UAVs. This is the 6th or seventh oil facility hit in as many days.
Domodedovo Airport in Moscow filled up with smoke after several Ukrainian drone strikes. It’s Moscow’s second-largest airport. Also Operation of Vnukovo, and Zhukovsky airports have been in limited operations due to the drone threat
The “Legion” reported in with Russian volunteers announcing the seizure of the administration building of the Gorkovsky settlement in the Belgorod Region.
Avdiivka -
Russia continues to press the attacks, using tank/APC formations but reports indicate that they’ve seen no success.
Outlook —
Ukraine’s prolific production of long range drones is to say the least very impressive. Its use of these drones is equally impressive. The selection of petroleum refinery facilities is particularly well chosen in that there are many of them and Russia cannot cover every one and provide coverage for the many other potential targets as well. Ukraine is also accurately hitting the fracking towers - the part of the refinery where different grades of fuel are separated. These are complex and will take a considerable time to repair. This also places stress on the Russian civilian population, both thru fear of the attacks and shortages of fuel and related products.
I’m sure Ukraine is watching closely the redeployment of Russian ADA assets to see what other openings have been created for future exploitation.
This may have a backlash thought. As noted it has been over a month since Russia’s last big missile barrage. If Ukraine is down Patriot units, they will be very suspect able to hits from the more modern Russian missiles. Why there has been such a delay is not certain. OSINT bean counters note that Russia does have limited supplies and limited production, but this in its self shouldn’t be that big a factor - unless production and stockpiles have been underestimated. I think a more critical matter may be the loss of 2 A50 AWAC platforms (potential more damaged on the ground in recent days). These aircraft would be monitoring Ukraine ADA as well as other air forces over the target areas as well as controlling Russian strategic bombers carrying cruise missiles. The Black Sea fleet has been a non-player for a longer period and probably expects substantial swarm attacks by Ukraine drone boats if they venture out to launching locations.
Russian ground operations have slowed to a virtual halt, inspire of critical ammo shortages of Ukraine forces. I still see evidence that poor tactical maneuvering, lacking logistical trains and poor leadership at the small unit level being causes that allow the Ukraine defensive positions to take these company and battalion sized assaults out before they can penetrate.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 11 - April 8
Key overnight developments -
- Israeli leaders keep preparing military and public for incursion into Rafah.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant convened a “special meeting” on the efforts to return the hostages held in the Gaza Strip this evening, his office says. Attending the meeting were senior officials in the Israeli army, Mossad, Shin Bet, and representatives of the negotiations, the Defense Ministry adds.
***
After a week of speculations, Israeli security officials confirmed on Friday that all signs indicate that Marwan Issa, Hamas’ third-most important commander, died in an Israeli airstrike on March 9, Israeli media reported. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu praised the security officials’ estimation as “a great achievement for Israel” and added, “they will all die, we will reach them all.”
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Some troop rotations ongoing, bringing in fresh forces.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The Israeli Army reports that the IAF bombed Hezbollah targets in 4 locations in southern Lebanon.
After a meeting with the head of Iran’s Quds Forces, Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah declared that his terror group would be prepared to fight alone in a full-scale war with Israel, as reported by Reuters. Nasrallah and Iran’s Quds chief discussed the damage an all-out war would do to Hezbollah and the effects a war would have on Iran.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Syrian Military sources report that IAF stuck targets in the Syrian Golan region.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israel security forces arrested at least 20 Palestinians from the West Bank last night, including former prisoners.
Israeli security forces stormed the eastern area in the city of Nablus and town of Al-Ram, north of Jerusalem
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Sec State Blinken met with Bahraini Crown Prince Salman bin Khalifa to reaffirm our shared commitment to freedom of navigation in the Red Sea and discuss U.S. efforts to secure a ceasefire of at least six weeks in Gaza
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel continues to isolate and eliminate remaining Hamas et al cells throughout Gaza.
The Rafah operation seems to be on track and will likely start in full within the next two weeks. Military preparation and readiness for action will degrade past that time.
I don’t see the hostage negotiations coming to any agreement. Hamas has too many unacceptable conditions that they are unwilling to compromise on and Israel has little patience for the delays, for they can see the end of Gaza operations in sight and can next prepare to pivot to the major threat posed by Hezbollah.
Not if you survived a heart attack you don’t.
A thirty year moratorium on any 'Palestinian' being allowed to immigrate to our country would be a nice gesture... It sends a nice message to the whole middle east. We don't want them here if they act like animals.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Relatively quiet weekend. Biggest issues have been riots/looting associated with ferals unable to control themselves on Spring Break.
Terrorism -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
This warning UPDATED as of March 18, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
RELATED - Israel’s National Security Council (NSC) on Wednesday issued a travel warning for Ramadan, warning of the possibility of attacks on Israeli and Western targets around the world.
***
A middle eastern man caught crossing the US/mexico border illegally claims to be a member of Hezbollah and was entering the country to build a bomb and launch terror attacks.
Economy-
Markets are on edge this week as Federal Reserve officials prepare to signal whether they still believe three interest rate cuts are likely in 2024.
That new projection on Wednesday will come in the form of a so-called “dot plot,” a chart updated quarterly that shows the prediction of each Fed official about the direction of the federal funds rate.
In December, the dot plot revealed a consensus among Fed officials for three cuts for 2024, the first sign that the central bank was prepared to start loosening monetary policy.
Now that projection is in question following a string of hotter-than-expected inflation readings and cautious commentary from Fed officials.
OBSERVATION - The major banking interests are looking for reductions to get the money supply flowing again. Others still express concerns over last month’s “spike” in inflation and may likely cause the Fed to hold off reductions.
POLITICAL FRONT –
March 22, second funding deadline
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Over the weekend the MSM totally soiled their diapers spreading the “bloodshed” lie. Pushback was swift and vicious as the fullness of the transcript proved them to be political hacks. The massive, across the board headlines unveiled the extent of the conspiracy and smear attack. Remember, it is this same class of arrogant ignoramuses that want to censor much of the interwebs to prevent “misinformation” from reaching the public.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Washington Post columnist Kathleen Parker is calling on Vice President Kamala Harris to step aside -
“The Kamala conundrum comes down to this: She was picked because she was Black and female, a combo tantamount to job security. Now that she has become a burden to the Democratic ticket, Biden can’t fire her. He can’t risk alienating his base. Full stop.”
***
After the release of the Hur report, Joe Biden decided it was a good idea to address the nation and throw a hissy fit. It was well after his bedtime, and it went really badly for him. Not only did he make some critical mistakes, he also blamed his staff for his having classified documents in the first place.
“Top aides to President Biden involved in his mishandling of classified documents were given plum promotions within 24 hours of the release of special counsel Robert Hur’s damning report,” reports the New York Post. “Annie Tomasini, a Biden staffer since his Senate days, was named a deputy White House chief of staff on Feb. 8 — and the next day Richard Ruffner moved into Tomasini’s old gig as director of Oval Office operations.”
Illegal Immigration –
More and more reports of illegals committing murder, rape and other serious crimes across the country after being allowed in by biden’s open border policy as well as being thrown back onto the streets with no jail and no bail requirements.
North/South Korea –
North Korea launches apparent ballistic missile, Japan Defense Ministry says. Likely one of their short ranged missiles, due to the lack of more specifics on the launch.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner but are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed. However, as seen in Avdiivka, when Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with 7 Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer).
*****
Putin has won the presidential election in Russia with winning 87% of the vote securing his position in power until 2030 or beyond.
Economic Impact –
The recent blitz of Ukrainian drone attacks has destroyed/damaged more than 30% of Russian oil production (as reported from in 2020, although most haven’t been completely taken offline - but these could be hit again).
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-50 range. Slight chance of snow/rain showers in extended forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 17 of 22 Shahed drones overnight.
Explosions were reported in Kremenchuk of Poltava region. After the explosions, a fire broke out in one of the districts of Kryvyi Rih. Unstated Russian munitions - either drones that weren’t shot down or tactical ballistic missiles.
Belgorod region continued to be hit with artillery fire. Other than that , the “Legion” was quiet in the news.
Russian Territory –
4 drones were reportedly shot down at Slavneft-Yanos refinery in Yaroslavl
Outlook —
Russia reportedly made small gains in the Avdiivka sector overnight. ISW analysts made an interesting observation on the fight reporting that a commander of a Ukrainian battalion operating near Avdiivka stated on March 15 that Russian forces near Avdiivka are innovating and changing classical Wagner Group-style infantry-led “meat assaults” with assaults using armored vehicles to increase and maintain constant pressure on Ukrainian forces.
This tactic change provides greater direct fire support, but at the same time exposed armor to destructive attacks. This likely accounts for the increase in reported destruction of tanks and APCs in recent days/weeks.
Even with the tactic change, the Russian offensive is still bearly creeping along. The only thing helping them is the critical shortage of ammunition for Ukrainian forces.
Moldova/Transnistria -
A video went sub-viral yesterday showing a MI-8 helicopter reportedly belonging to the separatist military in Transnistria being blown up by a drone. Touted as a Ukrainian attack on Transnistria forces, OSINT sleuths quickly noted that the helicopter was positioned outside of a museum and that it looked inoperative (windows broken out for example). It was also suspiciously covered by a web camera which allowed recording of the attack.
Recent calls by the breakaway region for Russian support and inclusion will likely be amplified because of this “attack”.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 11 - April 8
Key overnight developments -
- IDF forces raided the Al Shifa Hospital once again, capturing potentially 80 Hamas terrorists and killing a senior Hamas leader.
- Hostage/cease fire talks continue forward in Qatar.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
UN report: It is still possible to avoid the spread of famine in Gaza through a ceasefire and increased aid entry.
NOTE - more food trucks are entering Gaza than before the war.
***
The Israeli army announces the death of 250 soldiers since the start of the ground operation in the Gaza Strip
***
Israel to offer six-week Gaza truce for 40 hostages in Qatar talks, Israeli official says.
Israel will send a high-level delegation headed by its Mossad chief to Qatar on Monday for mediated talks with Hamas designed to secure the release of 40 hostages in exchange for a six-week Gaza truce, an Israeli official said.
This stage of the negotiations could take at least two weeks, the official estimated, citing difficulties that Hamas’ foreign delegates may have in communicating with the group in the besieged enclave after more than five months of war.
Sinwar now reportedly managing hostage deal negotiations. Hamas leaders abroad have no authority to make decisions, ‘every comma, every period, will take 24-36 hours,’ source says.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza.
Israeli troops raided the compound of Gaza’s Al Shifa Hospital early on Monday in an operation that Palestinian health authorities said caused multiple casualties and set off a fierce fire in one of the buildings. Although the IDF said it achieved surprise on a group of terrorists who had returned to Shifa, it said it had both given a general warning to the medical staff there and had been following the return of terrorists for a long time.
More specifically, the IDF said it had planned the operation for a number of days, waiting for the right timing when they could most catch Hamas off guard.
During the IDF and the Shin Bet’s reinvasion of Shifa Hospital in northern Gaza on Monday, they killed Hamas’s Interior Ministry Operations Chief Faack Mabhough. Mabhough has been in charge of all of Hamas’s internal security forces both during the war and during peacetime. Israeli forces killed Mabhough during an exchange of gunfire when he resisted arrest and had been trying to hide within the Shifa complex.
IDF said it had arrested around 80 persons, some of whom are Hamas. The IDF is currently distinguishing who is among Hamas and who is a civilian or medical staff.
IDF took over Shifa in mid-November, uncovering video footage showing hostages being brought into the hospital, discovering a lot of militarily weapons and equipment as well as uncovering a significant tunnel/bunker network beneath the hospital and surrounding compound.
***
Aircraft targeting the east of the city of Rafah, south of the Gaza Strip.
Israeli Chief of Staff: We attacked senior Hamas leaders in the Nuseirat camp in Gaza, and we will continue to do so
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israeli Airstrikes in the Qalamoun region, north of Damascus
———WEST BANK——————————-
25 Palestinians were arrested in the West Bank last night.
Confrontations broke out between rioters and security forces in the town of Arora, northwest of Ramallah.
***
Israeli Police are preparing for mass terrorist infiltration from Jenin into Jewish settlements. Israel Police’s Lowlands division conducted training exercises and security assessments throughout Israel’s Northwest in recent weeks. These precautions are due to the ongoing warnings of possible Palestinian terrorist infiltrations into Jewish settlements within the region.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Islamic Resistance in Iraq - We attacked with drones an Israeli drone base in the occupied Golan.
U.S. official claims that the Houthis are unable to continue escalation.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel continues to isolate and eliminate remaining Hamas et al cells throughout Gaza.
The Rafah operation seems to be on track and will likely start in full within the next two weeks. Military preparation and readiness for action will degrade past that time.
Meanwhile, lead by the US (biden) pressure continues to dissuade Israel from cleaning out Rafah. So far Israel has flatly rejected those efforts, and barring some unforseen event, will proceed to clear out the town in the very near future.
I question the quality of the US assessment that the Houthi’s are unable to escalate their attacks. That general thought has been echoed for several months now and every time the Houthis surprise us.
Africa general –
Niger just told the US to close down its 110 million dollar drone base & 650 U.S. soldiers to leave the country.
Al-Qaida is threatening the capital city from the West while ISIS is to the north & Boko Haram to the south.
OBSERVATION - Another example of biden’s abhorrently bad foreign policy.
What what? No women and children killed? /s
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
(FO) S&P Global Vice Chair Dan Yergin said he is fundamentally concerned about the coming surge in electricity demand from the energy transition, increased data center construction, and Artificial Intelligence development.
“Is the capacity going to be there? That used to be a developing world question. Now it’s also a developed world question,” Yergin said.
OBSERVATION - Key to the WEF globalist plans is the tearing down of the ability to use power. This is contra to the parallel demand to electrify everything - especially the EV world. Cheap, abundant electricity has been one of the most effective means of enhancing longevity and industrial revolution than just about anything else in history.
IN RELATED - (FO) Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is “seriously considering” changes to the “Clean Power Plan 2.0” that will accelerate the forced shutdown of coal-fired power plants that do not install carbon capture technology.
Reportedly, Biden administration decided to change the technology standard for the emissions restrictions, no longer allowing coal-fired plants to burn hydrogen fuel and requiring carbon capture technology only.
Utilities say carbon capture technology is not viable at scale and have already opted to let coal and some LNG plants retire. This rule change will accelerate that power generation capacity loss with no likely replacement.
OBSERVATION - Killing any fossil fuel related power source. The goal of the WEF being acted upon by the marxist leftists in the WH.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
See “Central / South America General-“ below on how Haiti may replay here in the US.
****
LAPD forms a special task force to combat organized foreign gangs burglarizing homes. Increasing numbers of home breaking / thefts in rich section of the LA area have been driven by illegal gangs that take advantage of 90 day visas to enter the country and rob citizens, then returning to their country of origin with all their loot. These gangs operate a high tech operation that jams WIFI based security measures - blinding alarm systems, enabling quick penetration and exit of homes that have been pretargeted.
OBSERVATION - This is also a symptom of the overwhelmed immigration system combined with under manned law enforcement.
***
With support on the decline, observers are noting that the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), over the weekend, called for the global protest movement against Israel to intensify. The far left in the US has echoed the call.
The fervor for pro-hamas mass demonstrations have significantly declined over the past month and is not as nice and shiny to leftists of late. Here in the US i suspect that with the approaching elections, efforts will be made to more closely integrate pro-hamas based protests into anti democrat or anti Trump events - bringing with it a greater synergy and enthusiasm.
Terrorism -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
This warning UPDATED as of March 18, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The Navy fired the commander of one of its guided missile submarines on Monday — the third submarine firing in the last seven months — according to a press release on Wednesday. The commanding officer of the USS Ohio sub’s gold crew — Capt. Kurt Balagna — was relieved by Rear Adm. Nicholas Tilbrook, the commander of Submarine Group 9, “due to a loss of confidence in his ability to command,” the Navy said. Balagna appears to be the third Navy commander relieved this year. However, since last September, Navy leaders have fired the skippers of the USS Georgia and USS Alabama as well. Navy officials have previously said that in 2023, the service relieved 15 commanding officers.
OBSERVATION - We are seeing the possible combination of two forces at play. The first one being poor training of commanders due to the overlay of CRT/DEI race and gender inclusive training. The second could be a purge of politically unreliable senior officers. Both are concerning.
POLITICAL FRONT –
March 22, second funding deadline
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Trump unable to get $464m bond in New York fraud case. The former president must either pay the full amount in cash or secure a bond to continue his appeal.
***
Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson is concerned that the First Amendment is “hamstringing the Government” when it comes to censoring speech on social media. She made the comment during a hearing a lawsuit against the US govt for pressuring social sites to censor ‘misinformation’ (which has since been proven to be factual information). Uh, well, yeah, that’s literally the entire reason it was created.
OBSERVATION - She speaks the brainless concept of what the progressive left think of how the constitution does or does not operate. You can take her ‘thoughts’ and multiply it by millions of mind numbed democrats. If the government can stop what you say, why not stop who you are allowed to pray to or who you are allowed to meet or any type of protest against the government at all?
IN RELATED - USSC observers note that the court is inclined to side with the Biden administration, allowing federal agencies to restart what is effectively government censorship of online political speech just in time for the 2024 election.
***
(FO) The White House objected to House Republicans’ proposed continuing resolution (CR) to fund the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) through 30 September and requested an additional $1.56 billion in “border-related” resources. A GOP Congressional leadership aide said the additional money is a “blank check to simply ‘manage’ people into the country and bail out sanctuary cities,” and the new demand “has placed us on the brink of a shutdown.”
OBSERVATION - biden has ZERO intentions of closing the border, but intends to use as much money as possible to ACCELERATE the tidal wave of illegals into the country and plant them here under the maze of ‘regulations’ and executive orders made over the past three years.
***
Obama arrived at 10 Downing Street to meet with senior UK political and security officials. This unannounced trip comes just days after a bombshell report revealed he involved the UK’s intel agencies along with the CIA to spy on the Trump campaign and administration.
OBSERVATION - A very public entrance to 10 Downing Street. Leads credence to the rumor that he is the one pulling the strings in the biden camp.
Biden / Harris Watch –
biden has new shoes that are suppose to help his balance. OMG.
Illegal Immigration –
Supreme Court indefinitely blocks Texas from enforcing immigration law. Gov. Abbott’s response to the SCOTUS decision to indefinitely block Texas from enforcing a law to allow state officials to arrest and detain people they suspect of entering the country illegally:
“SCOTUS temporarily halted enforcement of SB 4 but Texas is still using its authority to arrest illegal immigrants for criminal trespass and other violations of law.
We continue building the wall, use NG to erect razor wire barriers to repel migrants & buoys remain in river.”
OBSERVATION - A setback for TX and America, but as Abbott notes, will not stop the arrests on other laws.
China –
Struggling Chinese property giant Evergrande and its founder, Hui Ka Yan, have been accused of inflating revenues by $78bn (£61.6bn) in the two years before the firm defaulted on its debt.
The country’s financial markets regulator has fined the company’s mainland business Hengda Real Estate $583.5m.
Mr Hui also faces being banned for life from China’s financial markets.
In January, Evergrande was ordered to liquidate by a Hong Kong court.
The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) laid much of the blame on Mr Hui, who was once China’s richest man, for allegedly instructing staff to “falsely inflate” Hengda’s annual results in 2019 and 2020.
Mr Hui was also fined $6.5m, according to a filing by the company to the Shenzhen and Shanghai stock exchanges.
Evergrande did not immediately respond to a BBC request for comment.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-68603195
OBSERVATION - The Evergrande saga is just the tip of the iceberg for China’s troubled markets as there are many other similar companies on the edge of the abyss as well.
Japan –
Japan’s central bank has raised the cost of borrowing for the first time in 17 years.
The Bank of the Japan (BOJ) increased its key interest rate from -0.1% to a range of 0%-0.1%. It comes as wages have jumped after consumer prices rose.
In 2016, the bank cut the rate below zero in an attempt to stimulate the country’s stagnating economy.
In a statement announcing the decision, the BOJ said it will keep buying “broadly the same amount” of government bonds as before and ramp up purchases in case yields rise rapidly.
Expectations that the BOJ would finally raise rates had been growing since governor Kazuo Ueda took office in April last year.
The latest official figures showed that even though the rate of price rises has been slowing, Japan’s core consumer inflation held at the bank’s 2% target in January.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner but are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed. However, as seen in Avdiivka, when Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with 7 Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer).
*****
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s election victory speech and Q&A with the press was full of familiar themes, but he used the occasion after capturing a record 87% of the vote to warn the US and Europe that a “full-scale World War III” is “possible” should any Western troops enter Ukraine.
***
The Russian government recently announced, that once they conquer Ukraine and absorb it into Russia, portions of Ukraine will be added to existing Russian provinces. This is part of a plan to exterminate Ukraine completely. Russia has already been moving Ukrainian civilians it controls to different parts of Russia where it will be easier to exterminate Ukrainian culture over a few generations. Russians are then moved into the territory formerly occupied by those Ukrainians to make those areas very Russian. There is also a plan for Russia to conquer and occupy portions of Poland and Romania that Russia believes should belong to Russia.
This latter goal will trigger war with NATO.
Logistics –
Russia has introduced a wire controlled UAV in order to have a UAV that is immune to electronic jamming. The new UAV has a spool containing ten kilometers of thin fiber-optic wire connected to a human-operated control station.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-50 range. Slight chance of snow/rain showers in extended forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian Ministry of Defense claims control over Orlivka village, west to Avdiyivka. Otherwise things appear rather static.
Reports from the Ukraine side are noting a continuation of the Russian ‘meat’ assaults, even though forces in the Avdiivka sector are noting more armor support to attacks.
Russian Territory –
Complete blackout in Grayvoron district of Belgorod region.
Outlook —
Legion forces continue to cause problems in the Belgorod region. Russia so far has failed to mobilize forces to block further advances. Belgorod has faced 6 days worth of artillery fire, in addition to drone strikes. Moscow has been keeping the effects on the locals under wrap and out of the national eye.
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
The Serbian president reportedly announced a new treaty with Russia.
Also announced that he will invade Kosovo whenever he feels like it.
Pakistan –
Clashes between the Pakistani army and Islamic Emirate forces are currently taking place in the Paktika province of Afghanistan.
The conflict started last night following airstrikes conducted by Pakistani planes on civilian residences in Paktika and Khost, Afghanistan, leading to the tragic deaths of five women and three children.
The Afghan Taliban have announces that they are attacking Pakistani military positions across the border in revenge for the Pakistani airstrikes against the Pakistani Taliban in Afghanistan which killed 8 a few hours ago.
Significant escalation taking place.
OBSERVATION - There have been increasing skirmishes between the two countries lately.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 11 - April 8
Key overnight developments -
- Operations in and around Shifa Hospital continue
- IDF took out a warehouse in the Damascus area reportedly loaded with advanced munitions sent by Iran for Hezbollah.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
The White House - Biden and Netanyahu discussed by phone the situation in Rafah and efforts to increase aid to the Gaza Strip
***
The United States has issued its strongest public warning yet to Israel against invading the crowded city of Rafah in the Gaza Strip, saying that such a ground operation would deepen the humanitarian crisis in the besieged enclave.
US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters on Monday that, while President Joe Biden remains committed to the goal of defeating Hamas, he communicated to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that a major assault on Rafah would be a “mistake”.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/3/18/biden-warns-netanyahu-against-mistake-of-invading-rafah-white-house?traffic_source=rss
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza.
More Israeli bombing of the vicinity of the Shifa Hospital in Gaza.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Syrian Defense Ministry accuses Israel of striking military targets near Damascus. A Hezbollah weapon warehouse was targeted in an Israeli missile attack in Syria early on Tuesday, according to the Saudi channel Al-Hadath, citing The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. According to N12, citing reports, the advanced weapons located in the warehouse had arrived from Iran and were supposed to be transferred to Hezbollah.
***
OSINT observers are noting that Russian forces are moving closer to the Israel-Syria border. This is placing them in the line of fire between Israel and Hezbollah/Iranian facilities in Syria. In the past, Israel has gone out of the way to warn Russia of some impending strikes so that Russia can get its personnel out of harms way. Now Russia has been threatening Israel if strikes endanger its forces. This 180 seems to also coincide with the growth of the relationship between Russia and Iran.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Authorities arrested 15 Palestinians last night from the West Bank, including a journalist and former prisoners
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
United States Central Command (CENTCOM) forces successfully engaged and destroyed seven anti-ship missiles, three unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), and three weapons storage containers in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel continues to isolate and eliminate remaining Hamas et al cells throughout Gaza. The Shifa Hospital operation was a surprise to many - especially Hamas.
Houthi have been quiet of late, but if I had the ability to check, I’ll bet the Iranian spy ship has not been in the Red Sea lately. US is recommending ships shut their transponders off - especially US affiliated one.
Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -
See “Pakistan” above for latest skirmishes.
Mexico -
There are reports that Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is preparing to seize and nationalize a U.S.-owned quarry and port on the Mexican Caribbean coast.
Central / South America General-
PORT-AU-PRINCE, Haiti — Gangs attacked two upscale neighborhoods in Haiti’s capital early Monday in a rampage that left at least a dozen people dead in surrounding areas.
Gunmen looted homes in the communities of Laboule and Thomassin before sunrise, forcing residents to flee as some called radio stations pleading for police. The neighborhoods had remained largely peaceful despite a surge in violent gang attacks across Port-au-Prince that began on Feb. 29.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/18/gang-attacks-haiti-capital-deaths-00147707
OBSERVATION - I’ve commented in the CW2 section on how the feral inner city minorities will go after settling scores, raping and plundering food, drugs/alcohol/merchandise etc when the world goes sideways. Then they will attempt to expand into the suburbs and beyond in order to gain more ‘resources’. These neighborhoods noted in the article are the more upper class ‘suburbs’. What little police forces that are left are defending them.
The situation in Haiti continues to spiral into a Mad Max world . Multiple gangs are fighting it out for control of dwindling resources on the island. The apparent strongest gang lead by Barbecue claims to have united Port-au-Prince’s notoriously quarrelsome gangs in a coalition called Viv Ansanm (Live Together). However, the near civil war conditions have the balance of power shifting on short notice.
***
Protests and unrest amid blackouts and food shortages has hit Cuba. Cuba is accusing there US of causing the problems. Not expected at this stage to become significant.
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
We can all feel safe knowing our 'protectors' were chosen for their jobs based on DEI standard of WOKE idiocy: Kolor, Kink and/or Kin...
I’m more concerned about submarine captains being replaced... Since I feel there’s a good chance WOKE’s weakening our military intentionally this action would make it easier for our enemies to take us out with nukes. Sub captains can launch their nukes on their own. Take out the subs and we’re toast.
I dread that we are seeing Chinese style military purges (soft). Boomer capts have a big moral responsibility- and to replace them so quickly is concerning
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
Canada is moving to link bank accounts to a new social awareness/status database, a step towards digital currency and control over what one spends money on.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Progressive and socialist activists have started a Seattle Police complaint campaign that amounts to little more than harassment. They’re taking advantage of the anti-cop leader of the Office of Police Accountability (OPA) who vowed to investigate officers who commit traffic violations, even while responding to emergencies.
https://mynorthwest.com/3954882/rantz-activists-seattle-police-complaint-campaign-harass-cops/
OBSERVATION - Now using bogus ‘traffic violation’ claims to further harass police. All part of the extremist Antifa elements to tie the hands of police and allow them unfettered actions across the Seattle metro area.
***
MSNBC host Keith Olbermann has sparked fury after saying there’s ‘always the hope’ Donald Trump will be assassinated.
The ex-SportsCenter host, 65, was reacting to a video posted by a Biden-Harris campaign account where Trump spoke about how he was like former President Abraham Lincoln at an Ohio rally Saturday.
OBSERVATION - These liberal mouthpieces continue to encourage followers to endorse the assassination of Trump - conditioning the minds and wills of the extremists.
I really don’t think he realizes the holy hell that will break out if a leftist attempts to assassinate Trump (or any other important conservative, like Justice Thomas).
Terrorism -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
This warning UPDATED as of March 18, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
RELATED - Israel’s National Security Council (NSC) maintaining travel warning for Ramadan, warning of the possibility of attacks on Israeli and Western targets around the world.
***
German police arrested 2 Islamists suspected of preparing a terrorist attack against the Swedish parliament
Economy-
Lawrence Summers, Treasury Secretary under Clinton and economic advisor to Obama, is likely getting himself into trouble once again with the Left.
He essentially is saying what consumers have been saying for the past several year - the numbers put out by the govt are lying to you.
Summers explains why: the way the numbers have been calculated has changed so much since the 1970s and 80s that they don’t capture the true misery that people are feeling anymore.
The difference? Rises in interest rates, which increase the cost of purchasing goods, if not the goods themselves, are no longer measured as part of inflation.
OBSERVATION - See link for greater details and discussion. The govt began to fudge the numbers all the way back in the clinton era and that move has accelerated over the more recent years. If anyone should know about the start of the number fudging, it should be Summers.
That is why pundits are mystified that the sheep don’t embrace bidenomics - because it is based on cherry picked numbers to make it look all shiny. This is also why I question some economists who ‘forecast’ happy days when standards of economic health used in the “Before Years” are ignored.
POLITICAL FRONT –
March 22, second funding deadline
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon has instructed Special Counsel Jack Smith to hand over ALL classified materials to a jury for scrutiny or risk a Trump acquittal by refusing to do so.
OBSERVATION - Smith has strenuously fought against the jury seeing the alleged documents, likely because he believes they will be sufficient to vindicate Trump.
Illegal Immigration –
TX’s ability to enforce SB4 whiplashed back and forth overnight. Following an indefinite stay of the law, the USSC ruled 6-3 that TX can continue to enforce the law. That lasted a few hours until a three-judge panel at the Fifth Circuit voted to freeze the ruling as it hears the appeal.
Where this bouncing ball ends up is anyone’s guess. Some think the 6-3 vote indicates the court is inclined in favor of the law when it finally reached the court formally.
The Mexican foreign ministry said in a statement on Tuesday: “Mexico categorically rejects any measure that allows state or local authorities to exercise immigration control, and to arrest and return nationals or foreigners to Mexican territory.”
OBSERVATION - This puts things back to a fall back - TX can still arrest Illegals for trespassing - just not with the full force SB4 gives them.
North/South Korea –
There are some concerns that Kim’ s dangerous sister is threatening a chemical or biological attack on the South in her latest rantings.
Kim Yo Jong is now raising the threat level in revenge for North Korean defectors launching balloons that are wafting propaganda over the North. That’s how, she says, COVID-19 got into North Korea after the North had been denying a single case since closing its borders entirely in early 2020 after the pandemic was first reported in Wuhan, China.
“Our countermeasure must be a deadly retaliatory one,” she warned in a speech carried live on North Korean TV. “If the enemy persists in such dangerous deeds as fomenting the inroads of virus into our republic,” according to the English-language translation put out by Pyongyang’s Korean Central News Agency, “we will respond to it by not only exterminating the virus but also wiping out the South Korean authorities.”
In the Korean-language version, as translated by NK News, a website in Seoul, she resorted to foul language that’s still more intimidating. “If the enemies continue to conduct dangerous s***that might bring virus into DPRK [Democratic People’s Republic of Korea], we will answer that by exterminating not only those viruses but also South Korean authorities, those little b*****s,” NK News quotes her as saying. Worse still, “We are already reviewing various response measures. It has to be a very strong, retaliatory response.”
Kim Jong Un is no more likely to wage biological or chemical warfare against the South anymore than he’s going to order a nuclear strike. The North hasn’t staged an underground nuclear test since September 2017, and Kim evidently has delayed a seventh test. While waiting for whatever he might do next, however, one can’t ignore his sister’s words against what we know about the North’s biological and chemical programs.
OBSERVATION - She is one SCARY woman. Glacial ice cold blooded nut job who’d start a new war at the drop of a hat. So far Kim Jong Un has kept her reigned in, but one has to remember, she gets her que’s from her brother.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner but are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed. However, as seen in Avdiivka, when Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with 7 Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer).
*****
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s election victory speech and Q&A with the press was full of familiar themes, but he used the occasion after capturing a record 87% of the vote to warn the US and Europe that a “full-scale World War III” is “possible” should any Western troops enter Ukraine.
***
Chief of Russian Foreign Intelligence service Naryshkin claims France is preparing 2000 soldiers as the first stage to deploy in Ukraine, claims many French were killed in Ukraine. Says French troops will be priority target for Russian stirkes
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-50 range. Slight chance of snow/rain showers in extended forecast.
RUMINT –
A lot of talk about France moving combat troops into Ukraine. France would not be alone in the action as other NATO nations have been rumbling about the same.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia made gains in the Avdiivka sector. The “Legion” forces, though details are sketchy, apparently are having some degree of success in their push towards Belgorod.
Russian Territory –
Russia just announced 9000 ppl will be evacuated from Belgorod due to daily Ukrainian strikes.
In Engels, Russia, explosions rang out at night after the city was attacked by drones. A strategic aviation base is located in Engels, where Tu-160 and Tu-95MS bombers are located, which are used in mass missile attacks on Ukraine. Russian Ministry of defense claimed 4 drones were shot down in Saratov region.
Starting March 20, entry into the territory of Kozinka, Glotovo, Gora-Podol, Grayvoronovo, Novostroevka 1st and 2nd, Bezymeno will be limited, and roadblocks will be set up - Governor of the Belgorod Region Gladkov
Partial blackout in Kursk as a power substation was damaged
Russian air defense shot down 11 aerial objects over Belgorod region, - local authorities, S-200 missile over Kursk region
Outlook —
Fighting on the Avdiivka front will continue to be intense as it appears that Russia is trying to reinforce the successes of recent days.
“Legion” forces continue to create disruptions in the Belgorod region.
Ukraine has paused its deep attacks on Russian oil production/refinement. May be evaluating other targets as Russia tries to shuffle ADA assets to provide more protection.
I’m looking at how valid the claims of French forces moving into Ukraine are. This could be a dangerous event that would definitely expand the war into most of eastern Europe and involve NATO forces. Putin for his part hasn’t lessened the concerns of NATO nations with his latest pronouncements on how he is planning to carve up Ukraine after a Russian ‘victory’ and how his military ambitions are likely to continue westward.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 11 - April 8
Key overnight developments -
- Operations in and around Shifa Hospital continue
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza.
IDF, Shin Bet killed 90 terrorists in Shifa Hospital area.
Israeli security forces have so far detained about 350 Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorists during the operation at Shifa Hospital, most of whom surrendered.
The IDF is using an entire corridor in the hospital to hold the terrorists, which is serving as a temporary detention facility for the military intelligence and Shin Bet for interrogating terrorists, to obtain intelligence from them as quickly as possible.
An IDF source told Army Radio that “we are sitting on a gold mine.”
Among the detainees were medium level Hamas commanders, including the Gaza Brigade Commander Izz a-Din al-Haddad.
One of the detainees, an Islamic Jihad terrorist, recently fired rockets at the settlements surrounding the Gaza Strip. During his interrogation, he said, “We left Shifa – we fired at Sderot – and returned to Shifa, because we understood it was a safe area.”
Also, during the activity at the hospital, the forces seized Hamas military archives and binders stolen by Hamas from the Erez crossing on October 7, including sensitive COGAT unit information.
The IDF assesses that Hamas may have tried in recent months to re-excavate and rehabilitate the underground tunnel system under Shifa, but that the system, which was already destroyed during the war, does not enable terrorists to stay or escape.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/387048
***
In Gaza, it is reported that Mohammed Salah al-Darawish, the deputy president of Hxmas’s Supreme Court, has been eliminated.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Rockets were fired towards the Israeli Al-Samaqa site in the Kafr Shuba hills in southern Lebanon
———WEST BANK——————————-
Clashes broke out between youths and security forces in the Jabal Al-Tawil area in the city of Al-Bireh
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthis, claim to have broken thru Israel’s missile defense shield. IDF has confirmed a cruise missile penetrated on Sunday night. It landed north of Eilat in an unoccupied area. Israeli ADA response standards don’t waste missiles on targets that are impacting on empty ground.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Canada will stop sending arms to Israel, Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly says: Toronto Star.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel continues to isolate and eliminate remaining Hamas et al cells throughout Gaza.
The Shifa Hospital operation was a surprise to many - especially Hamas. It permitted Israel to corral a considerable number of terrorists in one fell swoop. But it also shows the tenacity of some Hamas fighters to regroup in areas previously cleared and why operations continue in Northern and central Gaza. The intelligence related materials captured are a gold mine and may assist in accelerating the destruction of remaining Hamas stronghold/hideouts.
US is continuing to pressure Israel not to enter Rafah, or if they do then they need to do it the way Washington wants them to. This is a very tone deaf non-starter.
Black Swans -
Ron Paul and Gen Flynn have recently warned about an impending Black Swan event(s) in this year. In social media, followers of these two claim that they’ve been fully accurate with their predictions in the past. I’ve put little into their past statements, finding little support from other sources.
However, by its definition a Black Swan is something that is unthinkable which occurs and their warning is causing me to monitor their claims much more closely. Who would have thought that our govt and medical professional community would lie to the extent they did during the wuhan plandemic. Who would have thought our law enforcement would so blatantly violate the law and behave like the Stazi. And there are many other ‘unthinkable’ things going on out there.
So, I’m looking closer at their so far generic claims. Yes, if you’ve followed my meanderings you’d note that many of the potential threats to our country and freedom are rooted in potential false flag (black swan) operations or the implosion of our society in general from the deliberate open borders, caustic economic policies, forced climate change standards, identifying half of America as ‘domestic terrorists’ , etc. So even before I listened to their warnings, I was pretty set on something bad happening - because I’ve searched and assessed other sources, conditions and trends.
There are many things that could be triggered for a Black Swan against us. And as the election approaches and it becomes evident that Trump will take down biden, the leftist may pull the trigger on one or more Black Swan style events in order to stay in power. Pretty pessimistic outlook, but IMHO one grounded in reality outside of normalcy bias.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
Reports coming out that Oregon is in the process of shutting down small farms throughout the state.
There are two different laws that Oregon officials are using to conduct these shutdowns. One involves the state of Oregon’s broadly vague definition of a CAFO, which reads, in part, as follows:
“The State of Oregon defines CAFOs as the concentrated feeding or holding of animals or poultry, including but not limited to horse, cattle, sheep, or swine feeding areas, dairy confinement areas, and poultry and egg production facilities where the surface has been prepared with concrete, rock or fibrous material to support animals in wet weather.”
Based on this definition, a few-acre homestead with pasture and, say, two milking cows and some chickens qualifies as a CAFO if it has any area on the property where rock or gravel is used as a pathway to get to a small barn or coop. As such, they are mandated to comply with volumes of regulations and reporting, or face shutdown.
Another thing Oregon farmers are having to deal with is the state’s rules on water. The only water that farmers are legally allowed to collect in Oregon is rainwater. Everything else, including water from rivers and streams, and even groundwater on private property, is considered a public resource.
Because of this rule, Oregon farmers are not even allowed to use water from their own private wells to irrigate their crops and hydrate their animals without a permit. Coupled with the CAFO rule, this one concerning water use is being abused in such a way as to make it prohibitive, if not impossible, for farmers to run their farms.
“It has slowly rolled out to the point where market gardeners on a half-acre of land are now receiving cease-and-desist orders saying, ‘you can’t water your gardens; figure out another way.’”
https://foodfreedom.news/2024-03-20-oregon-suddenly-starts-shutting-down-small-farms.html
OBSERVATION - Remember, the WEF acolytes recently pronounced family gardening to be a major source of global warming gasses - yep - all in order to strip any degree of self reliance for food from the menu. Big farm are challenging the law, but the communistic Oregon govt wonks don’t care.
***
biden’s EPA has doubled down on the failing EV mandate, by releasing what it calls the “strongest-ever pollution standards for cars,” which it claims will “expand consumer choice in clean vehicles.”
The EPA expects plug-in electric vehicles to make up between 62% and 70% of the automotive market. But this unrealistic target ignores two key facts:
First, consumers are not lining up to purchase electric vehicles, which made up only 7.6% of 2023 vehicle sales despite heavy subsidies.
American drivers simply aren’t embracing EVs because they know these vehicles have shorter driving ranges and longer refueling times. Not to mention that they’re significantly more expensive.
The five-year cost to own an average electric vehicle is more than $92,000, according to the North American Auto Dealers Association.
https://nypost.com/2024/03/20/opinion/bidens-war-on-gas-cars-will-cost-americans-a-fortune/
OBSERVATION - The globalists have to reign in the auto industry and keep it under their thumb - because automobile ownership equals freedom of movement for the masses. It also has to force the 15-minute city concept, so if you can’t drive far in your EV before recharging (and the charging stations are few and far between) you will be contained in a tighter geographic region. And this isn’t even accounting for the drastically increased electrical demand to charge all those vehicles.
***
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released its “State of the Global Climate 2023” report on March 19, 2024, confirming 2023 as the warmest year on record. The report is published ahead of the Copenhagen Climate Ministerial on March 21 and 22, where climate leaders and ministers from around the world will gather to push for accelerated climate action.
OBSERVATION - Components of this report are highly controversial, but that doesn’t stop the broad proclamation that mankind is heating up the planet. As stated, it will be used as a club to force more of the climate change agenda on reluctant countries and sectors.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Chaos broke out at the University of Memphis after BLM protesters chased down TPUSA people who were leaving the Kyle Rittenhouse event. Police had to prevent the hostile crowd from physically attacking them.
The angry BLM crowd then tried to prevent TPUSA from leaving the parking garage at the University of Memphis. Campus and state police had to push the crowd back to allow the cars to leave.
OBSERVATION - This harkens back to the BLM/Antifa days. This should serve as a wake-up and warning call to those attending republican/conservative rallies this year. They are bringing back out the physical terror / threats playbook. Remember in those previous riots, they would also seek out and isolate small groups/individuals as they returned to their cars at near by parking - where they were assaulted.
U of Memphis is also complicit in the violence, changing rules and ticketing at the last minute in favor of the rioters. Expect more as the summer progresses.
***
(FO) The Workers World Party, a U.S.-based Marxist-Leninist political party, is proposing this year’s International Workers Day to center on action in solidarity with Palestine and be referred to as “Workers for Palestinian Resistance Day.”
A recent communique called on “the most radical and advanced sections of the movement” to “take the lead in the [Palestinian] struggle” and “bring about a political turning point.”
Terrorism -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
This warning UPDATED as of March 18, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
Economy-
The Fed has held rates and not cut leaving interest rates unchanged. Still looks at three cuts later this year. Fed policymakers also updated their economic forecasts, sharply upgrading the US growth outlook for this year to 2.1 per cent, from 1.4 per cent in December.
“Inflation is still too high,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell told a news conference.
But despite the recent uptick, Powell said this year’s inflation data “haven’t really changed the overall story, which is that of inflation moving down gradually on a sometimes bumpy road toward two per cent”. But now, it predicts a 2024 median inflation rate of 2.6%.
OBSERVATION - The announcement made the stock market happy. My concern is how much politics is playing into all the Fed happy talk? There are a lot of boat anchors dragging on the economy and there is some thought that any growth will be due to excessive govt spending - skewing the economy - but not in sectors that effect the common person.
***
See “Globalism / Great Reset” above on how EPA is going to destroy the auto industry.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Naval Special Warfare Command commander Rear Adm. Keith Davids relived the commodore of Naval Special Warfare Group Eight Wednesday, citing a loss of confidence.
The Special Warfare Command release does not indicate where Capt. Richard Zaszewski, who took on the command in August 2021, according to his releasable biography, will go. Deputy Commodore Capt. Stig Sanness assumed the commodore duties.
“There is no impact to NSWG-8’s mission readiness,” reads the release.
There are no additional details about what led to the loss of confidence in Zaszewski’s ability to command.
Over his career, Zaszewski has been awarded a Silver Star, three Bronze Stars and a Legion of Merit, among other commendations.
https://news.usni.org/2024/03/20/navy-removes-special-warfare-group-8-commodore-from-command
OBSERVATION - Another ‘purge’ of a probable conservative commander? Special Ops have a history of being very pro-American and anti - progressive. They are commonly listed high on the regime’s list of potential/probable “domestic terrorists”. This commander probably didn’t jump high enough for the military’s LGBT and CRT agenda for the higher ups to tolerate.
***
The U.S. Air Force announced yesterday that it had tested an air-launched hypersonic missile south of Guam on Sunday as part of weapons familiarization training.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Not aggressively reporting here, but peer reviewed scientific studies and associated papers keep coming out pointing to the dangers of the wuhan jab and in some instances indicating it should have never been administered to humans to begin with.
POLITICAL FRONT –
March 22, second funding deadline
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
With all the focus on presidential polling, attention is being shifted towards the congressional races.
Rasmussen Reports released their most recent generic Congressional preference numbers:
“With less than eight months to go before election day, Republicans have a six-point lead in their battle to maintain their narrow House majority.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that if the elections for Congress were held today, 47% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 41% would vote for the Democrat. Just four percent (4%) would vote for some other candidate, but another eight percent (8%) are not sure.”
The GOP’s advantage has narrowed slightly since January, when they led by nine points – 49% to 40% – over Democrats.
OBSERVATION - Control of congress will be critical. If biden steals the WH again and democrats take control of both houses, the flood of anti-american laws would be unstoppable. For this reason, even Elon Musk note that there has to be a red surge or America is toast. These early numbers are not a guarantee for Republican success but show that they are going to have to roll up their sleeves and get in there and fight.
***
Following the Friday decision by Fulton County Judge Scott McAfee regarding motions to disqualify District Attorney Fani Willis and her lead prosecutor (and former love interest) from the case involving former President Donald Trump and multiple other defendants over purported interference in the 2020 election, Trump and his co-defendants filed a motion seeking to have the judge’s order certified so that they could appeal it immediately.
McAfee ruled that Willis could remain on the case but that in order to do so, she must fire Nathan Wade.
The defendants then moved for certification of McAfee’s order to allow for an interlocutory appeal. (Normally, appeals may only be taken after the trial of the case is completed. However, in certain instances, a judge’s ruling may be certified/deemed appealable so that the issue can be addressed on appeal before the case proceeds.)
On Wednesday, McAfee issued a “certificate of immediate review,” thus greenlighting the immediate appeal of his order.
OBSERVATION - Some noted early on that the ‘either / or’ nature of McAfee’s order was double edged. McAfee politically was tied very, very closely to Willis and likely feared that the clear ruling kicking both off the case and recommending criminal charges would be a career ender.
So thru his ruling and this follow-up his is in effect setting up conditions for a higher court to do his dirty work and covering his rear end. I think the depth of the charges and clear perjury by Willis will make it hard for the GA court of appeals to ignore the Trump appeal.
Biden / Harris Watch –
biden conducted a radio interview with a black radio host out of Milwaukee, Michelle Bryant, about a week ago and the audio of one of his comments on the show has now come out.
“For example, how many Black communities are in a situation where they come from a circumstance where they’re in difficult, where they have difficulty? Where the families are in real trouble? Where you have people who...even those families that are really poor don’t have any books in the house. Kids don’t hear a lot of conversation.”
What does he think goes on in a black home?
Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT
The Biden administration is warning states to be on guard for cyberattacks against water systems, citing ongoing threats from hackers linked to the governments of Iran and China.
“Disabling cyberattacks are striking water and wastewater systems throughout the United States,” Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Michael Regan and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan wrote in a letter to governors made public Tuesday. “These attacks have the potential to disrupt the critical lifeline of clean and safe drinking water, as well as impose significant costs on affected communities.”
https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-warns-cyberattacks-against-water-181349931.html
OBSERVATION - These attacks would have a short duration if responded to properly - which in the case of major metro areas would be a challenge. The hackers could adjust flow rates, change chemical additive rates, shut things down altogether. Here in my corner of the Redoubt, things are not very complex and the whole computer network can go down, with crews manually adjusting treatment. Metro areas may not have enough qualified individuals to assign to plants. In many instances, boil orders would be issued until the attack is turned or manual operations take control.
Similar relative short term effects if the cyber attack hits the electrical or natural gas systems. The electrical attack has the potential for being the most severe and longest lasting if the hacks manage to destroy some of the expensive and one of a kind mega transformers that support the grid. It would be unpleasant for a few days, but not world ending.
Illegal Immigration –
200K migrant deportation cases tossed because Biden administration didn’t file paperwork
OBSERVATION - This is not inept work - it was deliberate.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
*****
Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announcing the creation of 2 new ground armies, along with 16 new brigades and 14 new divisions. Very unclear where the new numbers will come from, though there are fears of a new, post-election mobilization.
***
Russia has accused the United States of using commercial satellite operators for its intelligence efforts — and is threatening to take military action in response.
The news comes days after Reuters released a report earlier this month, detailing a classified contract that SpaceX signed with a US intelligence agency to launch hundreds of spy satellites.
“We are aware of Washington’s efforts to attract the private sector to serve its military space ambitions,” foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told reporters, as quoted by Reuters. These systems “become a legitimate target for retaliatory measures, including military ones.”
Insider sources told Reuters that SpaceX was working on a massive constellation of spy satellites under its military-focused business unit, called Starshield. The Elon Musk-led company signed a $1.8 billion contract with the National Reconnaissance Office in 2021, as the Wall Street Journal reported last month.
Logistics –
Hard limits are appearing on Russia’s ability to continue the Ukraine war. It has begun running out of tube artillery (as opposed to rocket artillery) and light armored fighting vehicles (AFVs). The artillery shortage is because tube artillery barrels are wearing out, while the light AFV shortage is because so many have been lost in combat.
Russia’s stocks of self-propelled tube artillery pieces were eliminated by combat losses in the Ukraine, worn-out barrels or exploded from firing with worn-out barrels, and were replaced by towed artillery from its reserve stocks. Now the Russians have lost, worn out or almost worn out everything but their oldest reserve tube artillery, 50+ year-old 122mm towed guns of which they allegedly had about 4,000 in 2021. These are Russia’s last artillery reserve, are being put into service now and, when those are worn out this year, Russia’s tube artillery park will be reduced to their current production of about 200 yearly tube artillery pieces. At that point Russia can no longer continue the war unless their 2024 production increases to at least 2000 a year.
The Russians began the war with about 27,000 light armored fighting vehicles in their active army and in reserve stocks. Half of those have been lost so far. New Russian production of those has been only several hundred a year. The number of Russian light AFV in the field is now plunging because they can no longer replace losses from reserve stocks. That is shown by increasing Russian use of imported Chinese farm tractor carts (which look like big golf carts) to transport troops on roads, off roads, and through mud and heavy snow.
https://www.strategypage.com/qnd/russia/articles/20240320.aspx
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-50 range. Slight chance of snow/rain showers in extended forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
At least 9 Tu-95MS bombers launched a salvo of missiles primarily directed at Kiev. Ukraine shot down all 31 Missiles.
In total, both Kinzhal Missiles were intercepted and all 29 X-101 Cruise Missiles were intercepted.
This was the first major Russian missile attack in 44 days.
This follows a Ukrainian drone attack on the Russian airfield in Engels: according to satellite images available to Schemes, yesterday there were 11 aircraft on its territory, including 9 bombers, 6 Tu-95 and 3 Tu-160. Unconfirmed reports 2 were damaged. The bombers that participated in the missile strike flew out of Engles.
Kyiv suffered some damage from falling debris, setting off fires across the region.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims control over Tonenke village west to Avdiyivka and Alebastrova railway station near Kurdyumivka
Russian Territory –
Authorities in Grayvoron of Belgorod region asking citizens to evacuate to Yaroslavl region
Outlook —
Fighting on the Avdiivka front will continue to be intense as it appears that Russia is trying to reinforce the successes of recent days.
The overnight cruise missile attack by Russian did very little to Ukraine. Cruise missiles that are expected are easy to detect and take down - especially Russian ones. Russia did very little to saturate Ukrainian ADA assets, allowing them to focus on the missiles. They didn’t do a combined attack with drones and ballistic missiles at the same time. So they just threw away a lot of money and a scarce resource.
The targeting of Kyiv was an attempt at intimidation and retribution for the “Legion’s” actions in the Belgorod region as well as recent deep strikes on Russian petroleum facilities. The attack had no other strategically significant target.
It is increasingly possible that some NATO countries will soon be moving forces into Ukraine. One of the current stated objectives of the French appear to be to prevent crossing of the Dniper River - the major obstacle for Russian forces to press further west, should Ukraine defenses collapse completely . Other countries are stating that they are preparing to join France.
By positioning forces outside the disputed zones, back from the front may be an attempt to mitigate Russian threats of attack. The only systems Russia would have to hit these NATO units would be drones and missiles. These NATO forces would probably bring ADA with them, making Russia’s task harder.
Another escalation could be NATO warplanes flying CAP over these units - avoiding the combat areas and essentially creating a no - fly zone over the western half of the country.
The third worrisome issue would be whether or not Russia would risk direct strikes on participating countries. That would guarantee an Art 5 response and blow the whole region up into a much larger war.
Action/response cycle will be critical to monitor in the coming days.
Belarus -
The threat of missile strikes from Belarus against Ukraine remains until June 30, 2024.
Flight restriction zone for flights of all types of civil aircraft (including UAVs) at altitude from 0 to 19,800 meters in the south of Belarus is extended according to NOTAMN O0159/24 from 00:00 of April 1 until 23:59 of June 30, 2024.
The ban on flights over the southern part of Belarus was introduced on February 24, 2022, with the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Missiles were launched against the territory of Ukraine from the south of Belarus and those launched from Russia transited through this part of the country (including UAVs). Since the beginning of the war, at least 721 missiles have been launched from the territory of Belarus on Ukrainian cities. The last missile launch against Ukraine from Belarus’ airspace was recorded on October 6, 2022.
Europe / NATO General –
(FO) France is prepared to send 20,000 troops into Ukraine and could command up to 40,000 allied troops, according to their Chief of the Army, Pierre Schill.
Meanwhile, the Russian government claims 2,000 French troops are already in Ukraine.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 11 - April 8
Key overnight developments -
- More results from the recent Shifa Hospital raid coming out.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
State Dept confirms that Sec Blinken will visit Israel on Friday, listing a whole host of issues he will cover, including the US pressing that a possible Rafah operation must protect civilians & not hinder humanitarian assistance, which will be covered in Washington meetings next week
***
A new poll of Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza shows that 71% still approve of the terror attack by Hamas on October 7 — a result that is almost unchanged since the same poll was taken late last year
The poll found that respondents were unaware of Hamas atrocities:
As we have found in the previous poll, almost all Palestinians think Israel is committing war crimes while almost all believe Hamas is not committing war crimes in the current war. Moreover, more than 90% believe that Hamas did not commit any atrocities against Israel civilians during its October the 7th offensive.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza.
Just cleared for announcement by the IDF is that during the IDF’s operation this week at the Shifa Hospital in the Gaza Strip, Mahmoud Kwasama, a senior Hamas official responsible for the kidnapping and murder of three Israeli teenagers in 2014, was arrested.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The Israeli Army: We bombed two Hezbollah military compounds in southern Lebanon
———WEST BANK——————————-
Heavy internal fighting going on between the Palestinians in Jenin tonight, as tensions boiled over after the earlier Israeli strike in Jenin today which killed 3 terrorists.
The Israeli army says it has wrapped up its brigade-level counter-terrorism operation in the West Bank’s Nur Shams refugee camp, close to Tulkarem.The raid was launched late last night, and began with a deadly airstrike on two Palestinians who were allegedly hurling explosive devices
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
CENTCOM - on March 20, a coalition aircraft successfully engaged and destroyed one unmanned aerial vehicle and United States Central Command successfully engaged and destroyed one unmanned surface vessel, both launched by Iranian-backed Houthi militants from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel continues to isolate and eliminate remaining Hamas et al cells throughout Gaza.
The Shifa Hospital raid continues to make news with the arrest of Mahmoud Kwasama. It makes it very clear that Hamas will use hospitals and other facilities to shelter its forces and direct the battle. The surprise raid may have set Hamas back on its heels and further quicken the liquidation of assets and troops in the northern half of Gaza.
Israel continues to make preparations for its assault into Rafah. biden is clearly against it but Israel is set to go even if US munitions are not allowed.
Things have quieted down on the Lebanese border, but can explode in an instant.
It appears our legislators make laws to help the highest bidder - the one who can afford the best lobbyists... Either WE THE PEOPLE remind them that they're there to serve the needs of citizens, or we hire our own lobbyists or we quit throwing away money to pay for state legislators. This is the same problem we have with squatters... the laws aren't there to protect citizens they're there to protect criminals, or the Chinese, or the scum in DC... Only Trump and DeSantis can take on the thugs and goons and filth that have taken over our legal system.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
In NYC, pro-hamas elements are announcing “Palestine is Everywhere,” which is slated for March 27-30 and sponsored by the group Within Our Lifetime. Some of the ‘events’ include -
- de-occupations
- assemblies and gatherings
- public testimonies
- roving shutdowns
- sit-ins and
- slowdowns
- painting walls
- wheatpasting
- “other happenings.”
“Within Our Lifetime” has caused a lot of other problems in the past including blocking the Holland Tunnel, and the Brooklyn, Manhattan, and Williamsburg Bridges. The group also crashed the Christmas Tree Lighting ceremony at Rockefeller Plaza and was part of the mass of people who participated in a march in which patients at the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, including children, were terrorized.
OBSERVATION - Much of the agenda is to create as much of a nuisance as possible for the weekend. NOTE - This will be during the Easter Weekend. As such I would expect Christian churches and Jewish Synagogues to be particularly targeted.
Terrorism -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
This warning UPDATED as of March 18, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
POLITICAL FRONT –
March 22, second funding deadline
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Soap opera over the budget resolution - its going to pass to continue the govt spending frenzy.
Illegal Immigration –
An MS-13 Gang member, previously deported three times, with a long criminal record was repeatedly shielded from federal immigration enforcement thanks to the sanctuary jurisdictions of Prince George’s County, Maryland and Washington, DC.
The 36-year-old Salvadoran national has a documented record with the violent MS-13 Gang, had been arrested in the United States on 17 separate occasions dating back to December 2005, and was deported three times by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents before returning to the U.S. again, likely after illegally crossing the southern border for a fourth time.
Prince George’s County police arrested the gang member eight times, Baltimore police arrested him three times, U.S. Marshals in Washington, DC, arrested him twice, police in Hyattsville, Maryland arrested him once, police in North Carolina arrested him once, and police in Washington, DC, arrested him once.
On nine occasions, ICE agents filed a detainer against the gang member so they could take custody of him. Prince George’s County law enforcement declined to honor these ICE detainers a total of five times, instead freeing the gang member back into the community.
Similarly, police in Washington, DC, refused to honor the ICE detainer against the gang member and freed him instead.
OBSERVATION - This is completely deliberate actions on the loony leftists in these blue cities. The radical left wants the crime system to become overloaded and unmanageable. This is just the case of one illegal - multiply this by many, many more times.
***
Illegals temporally broke thru a fence at El Paso yesterday, with several hundred forcing their way past TX NG soldiers in an effort to get into the US. The scene was chaotic but the NG quickly got things under control and forced most of the illegals back onto the Mexican side of the fence.
OBSERVATION - New sources showed the break thru, and not the push back. NG also commenced reinforcing the fencing to prevent future attempts. Observers noted that this push was likely part of the annual spring efforts to enter the country as winter conditions shift into spring - trying to beat the summer heat. Also note that the fencing in this area was not as extensive as the Eagle’s pass area.
China –
Thirty-two Chinese warplanes were detected over Taiwan in just 24 hours, the country’s defense ministry said. the second-highest number this year
Twenty of the aircraft were detected after nightfall and included fighter jets, unmanned drones and medium-range transport aircrafts
It comes after Taiwan’s defense minister appeared to admit that US troops have been stationed on islands off the coast of China earlier this week
OBSERVATION -Now has become the typical intimidation response by China.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
*****
Yesterday, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announcing the creation of 2 new ground armies, along with 16 new brigades and 14 new divisions. Very unclear where the new numbers will come from, though there are fears of a new, post-election mobilization. Here are some points to consider
Shoigu has periodically announced these types of changes in peacetime and then not staffed them (like in 2016). This is wartime, so it’s different. Keep an eye on it, but don’t take it at face value.
One mech infantry division need not less than: 160 tanks, 210 IFV/APC, 112 SP Howitzers, 80 MLRS.... so 14 divisions means not less than: 2240 tanks 2940 IFV/APC and next 16 brigades means not less than: 496 tanks 1488 IFV/APC and lots of artillery... And where are special purpose vehicles (ARV etc) trucks, Air defense equipment,etc.
As I’ve noted in the past and is also reported in the link under “logistics’ below, Russia doesn’t have the mothballed stockpile or the production capacity to equip such a force expansion. While Russia still has a surplus of men, they’ve increasingly been getting recruits via mercenary contracts from affiliated countries as well as emptying out prisons.
***
Kremlin spokesperson - “We are in the state of war now. It has became a war, when The West became a party on the side of Ukraine”
“We cannot allow existence of the state, that wants to liberate Crimea and other regions under control of Russia”
Logistics –
According to the Ukrainian Stavka. Ukraine reports that Russia had lost 6,790 tanks and 13,000 other armored vehicles. The armored vehicle losses have been catastrophic. Half these armored vehicle losses occurred during the first few months of the war. That caused Russia to withdraw its troops and remaining armored vehicles from northern Ukraine and move them to eastern Ukraine, where most of the fighting has continued ever since. The Russian tanks and other armored vehicles being used now are mostly older models, including tanks produced in the 1950s and 1960s which were put into reserve in the 1970s. These storage sites were in remote parts of Russia near rail lines so the reserve tanks could be loaded on flat cars and moved to tank restoration operations and then to Ukraine. Russia is still building new tanks but in small numbers, like hundreds a year. Three or four times as many repaired new models or refurbished older model tanks are available. As the war in Ukraine went on, there were fewer Russian tanks available. There was a similar situation with the 13,000 other armored vehicles, which include troop and supply carriers as well as self-propelled artillery.
So far Russia has lost over 10,000 artillery systems. This includes howitzers and large, usually 120mm, caliber mortars. Many towed Russian howitzers were abandoned and captured by the Ukrainians. Russia also lost about a thousand MLRS (Multiple Launcher Rocket Systems), which are usually mounted on heavy trucks. Other losses include 720 air defense systems which include systems that use missiles as well as mobile systems that use smaller missiles and 30mm autocannon.
Russian combat aircraft and helicopters have also been heavy with 347 jet fighters and ground attack aircraft lost along with 325 helicopters. The jets are difficult to replace because they include a lot of imported electronics and other components from European companies which are no longer available due to sanctions for Russia’s attacks on Ukraine. With fewer traditional jet aircraft, the Russians have turned to cheaper UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) which have become used more as expendable munitions than weapons-delivery systems. Another critical loss is the 14,000 trucks for moving supplies and, in tanker trucks, fuel. Ukrainians have, since the start of the war, been particularly eager to destroy Russian supply trucks, especially if they are carrying munitions or fuel. You can always tell when one of these are hit because their cargoes explode as well in a very visible manner.
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htatrit/articles/20240322.aspx
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Two correctional facilities in the Krasnoyarsk region of Russia will soon be closed. Almost all convicts will be transferred to the armed forces to participate in the war against Ukraine. This was announced by the Commissioner for Human Rights in the Krasnoyarsk Territory Mark Denisov, reports The Insider.
***
Russian losses in Ukraine, as of March 17th, have been horrific. Russia reports lower losses, but this estimate, compiled by the Ukrainian military general staff, or Stavka, is considered more accurate. The Ukrainians are closer to the losses than the Russian general staff 850 kilometers away in Moscow. The Russian general staff reports much lower losses but the veracity of this is undermined by reports published in Russia of the thousands of Russians with severe injuries. Left out of these press releases is that the injured are Russian soldiers and the injuries occurred in Ukraine.
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htatrit/articles/20240322.aspx
Economic Impact –
The European Union is considering imposing duties on Russian grain to deprive Moscow of a “source of revenue”
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-50 range. Slight chance of snow/rain showers in extended forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
An unbelievable night of Russian missile / drone attacks. Ukrainian air defense shot down 55 Shahed drones and 37 missiles, in total Russia attacked Ukraine with 151 missiles and drones
- Dnipro hydroelectric power plant attacked and set on fire
- There are about 12 strikes on Zaporizhzhia. There are casualties. Infrastructure facilities were affected, 7 houses were completely destroyed, 35 were damaged.
- Kharkiv electricity facilities hit by 15 ballistic missiles from Russia, plunging the city into total blackout. Water supply disrupted, no city transportation
- In Kryvyi Rih, critical infrastructure hit. Emergency blackouts have been introduced in Dnipropetrovsk region.
- There were also attacks on critical infrastructure in Vinnitsa, Mykolayiv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Odesa, Lviv and Dnipropetrovsk regions.
- Blackouts in Sumy, Shostka and Konotop districts of Sumy region
- Russian drone attacked power infrastructure in Stryi district of Lviv region
- In Khmelnytskyi infrastructure and residential houses were damaged. There are dead and injured.
- Ukrainian electrical power company DTEK confirmed severe damage to its power plants
Outlook —
Round two of the missile attacks were remarkably intercepted by Ukraine. However, missiles are difficult critters to intercept without the right kind of system - like Patriot.
No word on the kind of missiles used. Suspect that a number of Iranian made missiles were in the mix because the damage by some of the impacts was huge - and many Iranian models carry more explosive than their Russian counterparts.
Russia targeted the electrical infrastructure by and large. The most dangerous aspect was the attack on the Dnipro hydroelectric power plant. The threat to blow another dam prior to spring runoff is a severe concern.
Ground action reports got buried, but it seems that the most action continues to be along the Avdiivka front.
Finally, a lot of talk from Russia on a massive mobilization. They could force the people into service - but as noted - where do they get the equipment? But is should also be noted that this is talk to counter the growing rumbling of France and other NATO countries edging forward to deploy into Ukraine.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 11 - April 8
Key overnight developments -
- More results from the recent Shifa Hospital raid coming out.
- US to make ceasefire resolution in the UN Security Council.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
US bringing “immediate cease-fire” resolution for a vote tomorrow morning at the UN Security Council, according to a US UN spokesperson.
US State Department: We call for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza linked to the release of detainees
US State Department: We presented a proposal for a ceasefire in Gaza, but Hamas rejected it
Blinken met with Netanyahu and will later hold a meeting with the Israeli War Council
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza.
In an image released by the Israeli army earlier this evening of some of the 358 terror operatives captured by troops at Gaza City’s Shifa Hospital apparently shows that senior Hamas official Raad Saad is among those detained. Saad has been previously reported to be the chief of Hamas operations.
More and more the raid on Shifa Hospital has struck gold for the Israeli’s and has sent shockwaves thru the remaining Hamas and affiliated islamic terror organizations still in the fight.
IDF Spokesman tell us the Shifa Hospital operation, was the largest operation IDF has conducted since 10/7. We captured the entire leadership of the PIJ in Gaza and many senior Hamas members; we will only reveal their names after their questioning so as not to reveal any intel. So far, a total of 358 have been captured, and we have killed 140 Hamas and PIJ terrorists. The operation is still ongoing.
Looks like one biggie Israel has captured is Raed Saad in Shifa Hospital, he is Major Commander in al-Qassam of Hxmas.
Islamists have been decrying the tactic of returning to the Hospital to reestablish command and control - noting that it has turned out to be a catastrophe.
Operations continue at Shifa, Hamas and Islamic Jihad gunmen are holed up in the building of Al Shifa hospital’s emergency room in Gaza, where an ongoing army raid was expected to go on for a few more days, an Israeli military spokesperson said on Thursday.
“We are evacuating the patients, around 220 patients, to another building,” Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said in a televised statement, “with appropriate medical equipment so that all the patients and doctors can be safe. We continue to call on all the gunmen in the building to surrender.”
Since Monday, the IDF has been mounting a massive military operation in an attempt to root out a resurgent Hamas presence at the compound, which Israeli forces first entered in mid-November.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Overnight and this morning, more ATGMs and mortar shells were launched from Lebanon towards Israel. Israeli army retaliated with air strikes and artillery fire.
Israeli media: A missile launched from Lebanon was intercepted and another fell in an open area in the Western Galilee
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
CENTCOM: a coalition aircraft successfully engaged and destroyed one unmanned surface vessel (USV) launched by Iranian backed Houthi militants from a Houthi controlled area of Yemen. Additionally, coalition forces successfully engaged and destroyed two anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs) launched by Iranian-backed Houthi militants from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen toward the Red Sea. There were no injuries or damage reported to U.S. or coalition vessels.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
“Gaza is on the verge of famine” says EU President von der Leyen after EUCO. “A catastrophic humanitarian situation. Full, rapid, safe and unhindered humanitarian access into Gaza via all routes is essential. 500 trucks or equivalent a day need to enter by land, air and sea”
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel continues to isolate and eliminate remaining Hamas et al cells throughout Gaza.
The intel gold mine of Shifa Hospital has been matched with unprecedented silence by the pro-hamas global cheerleading section.
Now the US is ready to demand a ceasefire via the UN Scty Council. Big change in support and attitude. The resolution is linked to a hostage release already rejected by Hamas. But the fact that the US would do this indicates the radical leftists in the democrat party are gaining the upper hand in their threats of walk away during the November elections - cutting off a large support base.
Iranian backed militias have been strangely silent in eastern Syria and Iraq.
Black Swans -
I responded to Laz’s thread on what is the black swan I’m looking at. Here is my latest interation
Ok laz, here it comes.
Premise that the regime is unwilling to cede the WH at any cost.
The black flag to watch out for is the assassination of Trump and other key conservative leaders.
The swamp has shown great willingness to kill Americans via the Wuhan jab - they would have no qualms about killing others.
The resulting chaos would permit the regime the excuse to impose martial law, erasing the election and permit mass arrests of opponents.
This would generate a backlash in red areas - igniting CW2.
The regime would then turn the 10 million predominantly military aged males that illegally entered the country loose.
It all goes down hill from there, economically and globally.
https://freerepublic.com/focus/chat/4225855/posts?page=135#135
So much for a restful Friday evening. Buckle up for the ride.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
Tyson Foods, one of the world’s largest food processing companies, announced last week it will invest in insect protein.
The American food giant unveiled a partnership with Netherlands-based bug food manufacturer Protix.
“In addition to a cash investment in Protix, Tyson Foods announced that the two companies have agreed to build a large facility which will be used to make bug food,” Frontline News stated.
https://100percentfedup.com/tyson-foods-working-on-new-products-with-insect-ingredients/
OBSERVATION - This announcement came out about the same time Tyson announced it was closing plants and laying off citizens only to further announce that they are looking to hire tens of thousands of illegals for their plants.
You vill eatz ze bugz and be happy.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
The job advertisement by Crowds on Demand — which provides “incentivized activism” (LOL what a euphemism) for companies and groups — is looking for individuals over 7 feet tall and weighing a minimum of 300 pounds.
Crowds on Demand is looking to enlist up to 20 of these towering figures to create an “undeniable intimidation factor,” bring a “giant to the gate,” and help ensure their “protests are taken seriously and can achieve their intended impact.”
https://notthebee.com/article/paid-protester-hire-7-foot-300-pound-giants-intimidation
OBSERVATION - Soon to come in the rent a mob market. However, i don’t expect the Antifa related mobs to utilize this resource any time soon as they have their own intimidation methods.
***
It has been revealed that the big financial backer of the Antifa related “Stop Cop City” efforts in Atlanta is Fergie Chambers, a descendant of the billionaire Cox family. Chambers estimates he’s donated “a couple million dollars” to the group. Not only has he financially supported signature gathering for the referendum, he’s sponsored buses to shuttle protesters to the site, and contributed “hundreds of thousands of dollars” to funds that paid for bail and lawyers for those who had been arrested.
He currently lives in Tunisia. Many suspect as a way to avoid answering to the legal issues his support has created. For instance, 40 of the “Stop Cop City” movement are facing RICO charges that may well entangle him as well. But in fleeing to Tanzania , he may have alienated some of his support in the group.
Terrorism -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
This warning UPDATED as of March 23, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
***
NOTE - Be additionally situationally aware over the next few weeks. If the Russian attack was ISIS based, with all the middle eastern moslems that have penetrated into the country over the past few years, similar assaults are more than possible here.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
U.S. soldiers face a quality-of-living crisis as the Pentagon’s recruitment woes persist, according to top-ranking enlisted officers from across the U.S. military.
“We’ve had a break in trust with our American people,” said Master Chief James Honea, the top enlisted adviser to Navy leadership, in a Wednesday congressional hearing. “We have to do much better at taking care” of our service members, Honea said, adding that he doesn’t want the military to “reach a breaking point” where more people decide to leave the military.
Officers and members of Congress highlighted poorly maintained barracks, food insecurity, sexual violence, and limited access to healthcare and childcare as key problems facing U.S. soldiers today. Economic problems are particularly acute among military families, who often struggle to find jobs for civilian spouses and proper food and healthcare for their children.
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/military-recruitment/
OBSERVATION - We have returned to the levels of the Jimmy Carter military - a near complete shambles. Food ‘insecurity’ angers me because bases have commissaries to provide discounted food to the military. Guess what, those commissaries (as well as BX/PX) have succumbed to local pressures not to discount food in an anticompetitive manner. Prices are near the same levels as off post grocery stores. One needs to reprioritize the purpose of these facilities.
POLITICAL FRONT –
March 22, second funding deadline
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
On Friday, the House voted 286-134 in favor of a comprehensive $1.2 trillion government funding bill to avert a government shutdown. The bill now goes to the Senate. Latest word was that the Senate bypassed opposition and got the bill passed, averting a govt shutdown.
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) is reportedly so unhappy that she has (or is going to) filed a motion to remove Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) from his position.
Rumors abound that House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has assured Johnson of democrat support as long as he puts the Ukraine funding bill up for an immediate vote.
The republican control of the House has been made worse by the snap announcement of Rep Mike Gallagher (RINO) resignation from congress. It will be effective April 19th. It appears to have been carefully timed. Under Wisconsin law, congressional vacancies occurring “prior to the 2nd Tuesday in April” in an election year get filled on a faster timeline. An April 19th resignation will keep Gallagher’s seat vacant until November
This places the republican house majority closing in on just one vote. During the last speakership tussle, there were strong rumors that some republicans would jump ship and support Jeffries as speaker. That dangerous path is still up for play.
OBSERVATION - Its apparent that the democrats have the republican house leadership by their private parts. The grave danger is for democrats to take control of the speakership and all the nasty bills they want to enact with their Benedict Arnold class of RINOs inhabiting the House.
***
Republican voters see it. Independent voters see it. And now, even half of Democrat voters agree that the news media are simply regurgitating Pres. Joe Biden’s talking points, a new survey reveals.
In a national poll of U.S. likely voters, conducted March 18-20, Rasmussen asked the following question:
“How likely is it that the major news media’s political coverage is dictated by talking points from the Biden campaign?”
Nearly two-thirds (63%) of all voters say it’s at least “somewhat likely” that Biden is dictating the contents of political news being fed to Americans, including 42% who consider it to be “very” likely.
Sixty-one (61%) of Republican voters say it’s “very” likely that Biden’s dictating the news – and more than three in four (78%) call it at least “somewhat” likely.
Independent voters also see Biden pulling the media’s puppet strings, with 61% calling it likely and 42% saying it’s “very” likely.
https://mrctv.org/blog/craig-bannister/half-democrat-voters-say-news-being-dictated-biden-campaign
OBSERVATION - Use polls with caution. However, I think Rasmussen has hit on a nerve that in part as a fallout of the misinformation jammed down our throats during the wuhan plandemic - the public is far more skeptical towards the media. One very large facet is the large divide between what ‘bidenomics’ is claiming and what peoples pocket books are saying. People hear how robust our economy is, while standing in line at the grocery story looking to pay outrageous prices for items that were far less expensive just 3 years ago.
***
Confirming what many have thought, former RNC party chair Ronna McDaniel has signed on as a commentator for NBC News and MSNBC.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Many Americans believe the country is becoming a virtual dictatorship with a solid majority saying President Joe Biden wants to put former President Donald Trump in jail to stop his electoral chances, a new McLaughlin poll finds.
In our new national poll 56% of all voters think Biden really wants to stop Trump from winning by putting him in jail. The national poll of 1,000 likely voters with plus or minus 3.1% at the 95% confidence interval was completed between March 9 and March 14.
Only 30% say it’s not true that Biden is trying to jail Trump.
A supermajority of Republicans, 86%, agree that Biden is weaponizing the justice system against Trump.
This is also not a partisan issue.
Independents agree 50% to 33% that Biden is seeking to jail Trump for political reasons, with moderates agreeing 48% to 32%.
https://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/National-March-Presentation-RELEASE-3-18-24.pdf
OBSERVATION - For comparison - Putin just won reelection after first jailing his leading political opponent, Alexei Navalny, and many of his supporters.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
*****
The terrorist attack in Crocus City Hall is generating secondary and tertiary shockwaves across the globe. The attacked by 4 - 6 individuals have at last count at least 115 people are known to have been killed in the attack.
The death toll made it one of the worst attacks on Russia since the 2004 Beslan school siege, when Islamist militants took more than 1,000 people hostage, including hundreds of children.
More than 140 others were wounded and 16 of those people are still in an “extremely serious condition”, including one child, Russian authorities say. They set fire to the shopping mall -theatre complex, destroying it. Security cameras revealed that the shooters coldly and calmly proceeded through the mall making precision shots and not just spraying bullets everywhere. Rumors indicate that they had gasoline in their backpacks that they used to accelerate the fire in the structure.
The shooters reportedly escaped the police dragnet set up around the center.
Some responses included Galereya and Nevsky Center shopping centers evacuated in St. Petersburg. All visitors of rapper Dani Kashin’s concert evacuated in Moscow - “Moscow with fire”. A number of other Russian cities, have started to cancel all mass events - statements of local authorities
Who done it? It is still relatively unclear this morning. Initial response was that this was a false flag? Some associate it with similar events in the past such as Nord-Ost in 2002? Blowing up houses, shooting at concert halls to fuel military actions in Chechnya. Some elements in Russia were quick to associate it with Ukraine.
Ukraine has been quick to distance itself from being associated with it. Ukrainian Military Intelligence calls terror attack in Moscow a provocation by Putin’s regime, aimed to justify more brutal strikes against Ukraine and total mobilization
ISIS has openly claimed responsibility - a claim that US and european intelligence sources concur. In fact, John Kirby warned Americans to avoid Russian concerts and shopping malls in a press conference two weeks ago. Apparently the branch of ISIS associated with the claim is the Afghanistan branch, making this the work of the ISIS-K or the Khorsan group.
Initial reports that the shooters were from predominantly moslem Tajikistan. They were registered in Russian Yaroslavl, Ivanovo and Samara regions. Russian Telegram channels publish a list of six alleged suspects in the terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall.
It should be noted that OSINT inter web folks have taken the released photos of the suspects and have found them linked to militants who were killed during a shootout in Ingushetia back in early March.
Recent - The Russian FSB claims four suspected shooters were detained in the Bryansk region within a few hours of each other. The weapons that were used during the attack on the Crocus City Hall in Moscow, were prepared in advance in a cache. After the attack, the shooters intended to cross the border of the Russian on Federation and Ukraine and had relevant contacts on the Ukrainian side.
OBSERVATION - What to make of this terror attack and associated mess. I think a lot goes towards putin and to see if he is going to effectively try to link it to Ukraine or not.
One interesting link is the Ingushetia claim. Ingushetia is in the North Caucasus shares land borders with Georgia to its south and the Russian republics of North Ossetia-Alania and Chechnya to its west and east.
Anyone catch that - Chechnya? A lot of bad blood with Russia there. The 2004 Beslan school siege was by Chechnians as well.
Chechnians are also very prominent members of the “Legion” efforts in the Belgorod region.
An ISIS - Chechnian linkage is very likely. ISIS has grown bolder under biden’s lack a dazical foreign policy, reflected in the disastrous pull out of Afghanistan.
This mess may or may not get cleared up in the coming days. However, the big concern is that putin may try to tie it to Ukraine and do something very rash.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Some analysts are concluding that Russia’s top brass are appeared to be building up reserve forces to “backfill” heavy battlefield losses so that a summer offensive can be launched w/o “taking a significant operational pause” from more limited spring attacks.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-50 range. Slight chance of snow/rain showers in extended forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The aftershocks from the terror attack in Russia are rippling into Ukraine. See Russia above. Advisor to the Ukrainian president: Kyiv has nothing to do with the shooting in Moscow
Much quieter night with Ukrainian air defense shooting down 31 of 34 Shahed drones. Drones were targeting the Kharkiv and Kremenchuk (near where the dam was hit yesterday) areas.
Explosions and fire at the Novokuibyshevsk Refinery in Samara Oblast of Russia, were reported in what appears to be yet another Ukrainian drone strike on Russian oil infrastructure. Novokuibyshevsk is located around 900km from the border with Ukraine. This would be the 2nd time in just two weeks it has been struck.
In Russia, Local authorities in Belgorod region reporting a drone attack against an enterprise in Staryi Oskol district
Belgorod has been hit with more artillery fire for the 10th day in a row.
Outlook —
There is a black cloud on the horizon if putin decides to use the terror attack as justification to do something very nasty to Ukraine. The fact that the narrative continues to try to tie Ukraine in with the terrorists should be very concerning to all. I’m talking about a tactical nuke level of concern.
Now to hedge myself a bit, I don’t see a high probably of a tactical strike in the near future, only that if putin can cement some kind of a linkage to Ukraine, he can justify to the Russian people the use of those weapons.
However, putin is not totally dumb, but knows full well the ramifications of such an act and potential NATO responses. And that would include a quick escalation to a regional/global nuclear exchange.
Otherwise, Russia seems to be trying to get its ducks in a row for a long term pressing of the offensive through summer - if it can muster the forces to replace the ongoing losses. This is now matching the rhetoric of the past several months. The question continues to be what will they be able to arm these replacements with?
Ukraine has resumed the attacks on Russian petroleum production. I have to wonder if this will cause Russia to shift its attention enough to open a window to strike at the Kerch Strait bridge.
ISRAEL –
Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 11 - April 8
Key overnight developments -
- Russia and China veto US ceasefire resolution.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
Russia and China veto’d the US resolution calling for an “immediate cease-fire”
Hamas leadership reportedly contacted both countries and expressed their gratitude.
***
Iran’s foreign minister had separate phone conversations with Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Palestinian Islamic Jihad leader Ziyad Al-Nakhalah, discussing the situation in Gaza and Palestine
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Intensive IAF bombing of central Gaza overnight.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IAF and artillery strikes on numerous Hezbollah targets near the border.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces continue operations to arrest terror suspects.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Yemeni media: American-British bombing targets Houthi sites in the Yemeni capital and Hodeidah
Houthi media: 5 new American and British raids on Hodeidah in western Yemen
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel continues to isolate and eliminate remaining Hamas et al cells throughout Gaza. The Shifa Hospital operation just brings to light how Hamas has been infiltrating back into areas previously cleared by IDF. This is forcing Israel to re-sweep areas. In many cases, these Hamas elements are small teams that can be quickly taken out but are lethal enough to cause serious damage to unsuspecting or unalert Israeli forces.
The overnight strikes on Houthi positions are an interesting development. And the very much lowered levels of Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping suggest that the announcement by the State dept earlier in the week that the Houthi are no longer able to conduct sustained attacks have a jewel of truth in them. Time will tell.
Israel continues to prepare for the Rafah incursion and appears to be undeterred by biden’s threats of non-support.
Venezuela -
Venezuelan has declared the oil-rich land in between their country and Guyana a new “state” - defying an ICJ ruling against such actions.
Guyana insists it won’t give up the region without a fight, and reportedly stands ready to defend its borders…. with help from the West.
OBSERVATION - It is highly unlikely that Guyana will get any timely outside military support against Venezuela. A former British colony, Britain has declared support, but is currently tied up with Ukraine related efforts and doesn’t have the current capability to project military power in the region. The US has said they would support the country, but our military is ill prepared to deal with any fighting.
Ping.
At least our thugs and intelligence goons aren't throwing opponents out of tall building windows... yet.
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