CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
In NYC, pro-hamas elements are announcing “Palestine is Everywhere,” which is slated for March 27-30 and sponsored by the group Within Our Lifetime. Some of the ‘events’ include -
- de-occupations
- assemblies and gatherings
- public testimonies
- roving shutdowns
- sit-ins and
- slowdowns
- painting walls
- wheatpasting
- “other happenings.”
“Within Our Lifetime” has caused a lot of other problems in the past including blocking the Holland Tunnel, and the Brooklyn, Manhattan, and Williamsburg Bridges. The group also crashed the Christmas Tree Lighting ceremony at Rockefeller Plaza and was part of the mass of people who participated in a march in which patients at the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, including children, were terrorized.
OBSERVATION - Much of the agenda is to create as much of a nuisance as possible for the weekend. NOTE - This will be during the Easter Weekend. As such I would expect Christian churches and Jewish Synagogues to be particularly targeted.
Terrorism -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
This warning UPDATED as of March 18, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
POLITICAL FRONT –
March 22, second funding deadline
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Soap opera over the budget resolution - its going to pass to continue the govt spending frenzy.
Illegal Immigration –
An MS-13 Gang member, previously deported three times, with a long criminal record was repeatedly shielded from federal immigration enforcement thanks to the sanctuary jurisdictions of Prince George’s County, Maryland and Washington, DC.
The 36-year-old Salvadoran national has a documented record with the violent MS-13 Gang, had been arrested in the United States on 17 separate occasions dating back to December 2005, and was deported three times by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents before returning to the U.S. again, likely after illegally crossing the southern border for a fourth time.
Prince George’s County police arrested the gang member eight times, Baltimore police arrested him three times, U.S. Marshals in Washington, DC, arrested him twice, police in Hyattsville, Maryland arrested him once, police in North Carolina arrested him once, and police in Washington, DC, arrested him once.
On nine occasions, ICE agents filed a detainer against the gang member so they could take custody of him. Prince George’s County law enforcement declined to honor these ICE detainers a total of five times, instead freeing the gang member back into the community.
Similarly, police in Washington, DC, refused to honor the ICE detainer against the gang member and freed him instead.
OBSERVATION - This is completely deliberate actions on the loony leftists in these blue cities. The radical left wants the crime system to become overloaded and unmanageable. This is just the case of one illegal - multiply this by many, many more times.
***
Illegals temporally broke thru a fence at El Paso yesterday, with several hundred forcing their way past TX NG soldiers in an effort to get into the US. The scene was chaotic but the NG quickly got things under control and forced most of the illegals back onto the Mexican side of the fence.
OBSERVATION - New sources showed the break thru, and not the push back. NG also commenced reinforcing the fencing to prevent future attempts. Observers noted that this push was likely part of the annual spring efforts to enter the country as winter conditions shift into spring - trying to beat the summer heat. Also note that the fencing in this area was not as extensive as the Eagle’s pass area.
China –
Thirty-two Chinese warplanes were detected over Taiwan in just 24 hours, the country’s defense ministry said. the second-highest number this year
Twenty of the aircraft were detected after nightfall and included fighter jets, unmanned drones and medium-range transport aircrafts
It comes after Taiwan’s defense minister appeared to admit that US troops have been stationed on islands off the coast of China earlier this week
OBSERVATION -Now has become the typical intimidation response by China.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
*****
Yesterday, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announcing the creation of 2 new ground armies, along with 16 new brigades and 14 new divisions. Very unclear where the new numbers will come from, though there are fears of a new, post-election mobilization. Here are some points to consider
Shoigu has periodically announced these types of changes in peacetime and then not staffed them (like in 2016). This is wartime, so it’s different. Keep an eye on it, but don’t take it at face value.
One mech infantry division need not less than: 160 tanks, 210 IFV/APC, 112 SP Howitzers, 80 MLRS.... so 14 divisions means not less than: 2240 tanks 2940 IFV/APC and next 16 brigades means not less than: 496 tanks 1488 IFV/APC and lots of artillery... And where are special purpose vehicles (ARV etc) trucks, Air defense equipment,etc.
As I’ve noted in the past and is also reported in the link under “logistics’ below, Russia doesn’t have the mothballed stockpile or the production capacity to equip such a force expansion. While Russia still has a surplus of men, they’ve increasingly been getting recruits via mercenary contracts from affiliated countries as well as emptying out prisons.
***
Kremlin spokesperson - “We are in the state of war now. It has became a war, when The West became a party on the side of Ukraine”
“We cannot allow existence of the state, that wants to liberate Crimea and other regions under control of Russia”
Logistics –
According to the Ukrainian Stavka. Ukraine reports that Russia had lost 6,790 tanks and 13,000 other armored vehicles. The armored vehicle losses have been catastrophic. Half these armored vehicle losses occurred during the first few months of the war. That caused Russia to withdraw its troops and remaining armored vehicles from northern Ukraine and move them to eastern Ukraine, where most of the fighting has continued ever since. The Russian tanks and other armored vehicles being used now are mostly older models, including tanks produced in the 1950s and 1960s which were put into reserve in the 1970s. These storage sites were in remote parts of Russia near rail lines so the reserve tanks could be loaded on flat cars and moved to tank restoration operations and then to Ukraine. Russia is still building new tanks but in small numbers, like hundreds a year. Three or four times as many repaired new models or refurbished older model tanks are available. As the war in Ukraine went on, there were fewer Russian tanks available. There was a similar situation with the 13,000 other armored vehicles, which include troop and supply carriers as well as self-propelled artillery.
So far Russia has lost over 10,000 artillery systems. This includes howitzers and large, usually 120mm, caliber mortars. Many towed Russian howitzers were abandoned and captured by the Ukrainians. Russia also lost about a thousand MLRS (Multiple Launcher Rocket Systems), which are usually mounted on heavy trucks. Other losses include 720 air defense systems which include systems that use missiles as well as mobile systems that use smaller missiles and 30mm autocannon.
Russian combat aircraft and helicopters have also been heavy with 347 jet fighters and ground attack aircraft lost along with 325 helicopters. The jets are difficult to replace because they include a lot of imported electronics and other components from European companies which are no longer available due to sanctions for Russia’s attacks on Ukraine. With fewer traditional jet aircraft, the Russians have turned to cheaper UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) which have become used more as expendable munitions than weapons-delivery systems. Another critical loss is the 14,000 trucks for moving supplies and, in tanker trucks, fuel. Ukrainians have, since the start of the war, been particularly eager to destroy Russian supply trucks, especially if they are carrying munitions or fuel. You can always tell when one of these are hit because their cargoes explode as well in a very visible manner.
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htatrit/articles/20240322.aspx
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Two correctional facilities in the Krasnoyarsk region of Russia will soon be closed. Almost all convicts will be transferred to the armed forces to participate in the war against Ukraine. This was announced by the Commissioner for Human Rights in the Krasnoyarsk Territory Mark Denisov, reports The Insider.
***
Russian losses in Ukraine, as of March 17th, have been horrific. Russia reports lower losses, but this estimate, compiled by the Ukrainian military general staff, or Stavka, is considered more accurate. The Ukrainians are closer to the losses than the Russian general staff 850 kilometers away in Moscow. The Russian general staff reports much lower losses but the veracity of this is undermined by reports published in Russia of the thousands of Russians with severe injuries. Left out of these press releases is that the injured are Russian soldiers and the injuries occurred in Ukraine.
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htatrit/articles/20240322.aspx
Economic Impact –
The European Union is considering imposing duties on Russian grain to deprive Moscow of a “source of revenue”
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-50 range. Slight chance of snow/rain showers in extended forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
An unbelievable night of Russian missile / drone attacks. Ukrainian air defense shot down 55 Shahed drones and 37 missiles, in total Russia attacked Ukraine with 151 missiles and drones
- Dnipro hydroelectric power plant attacked and set on fire
- There are about 12 strikes on Zaporizhzhia. There are casualties. Infrastructure facilities were affected, 7 houses were completely destroyed, 35 were damaged.
- Kharkiv electricity facilities hit by 15 ballistic missiles from Russia, plunging the city into total blackout. Water supply disrupted, no city transportation
- In Kryvyi Rih, critical infrastructure hit. Emergency blackouts have been introduced in Dnipropetrovsk region.
- There were also attacks on critical infrastructure in Vinnitsa, Mykolayiv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Odesa, Lviv and Dnipropetrovsk regions.
- Blackouts in Sumy, Shostka and Konotop districts of Sumy region
- Russian drone attacked power infrastructure in Stryi district of Lviv region
- In Khmelnytskyi infrastructure and residential houses were damaged. There are dead and injured.
- Ukrainian electrical power company DTEK confirmed severe damage to its power plants
Outlook —
Round two of the missile attacks were remarkably intercepted by Ukraine. However, missiles are difficult critters to intercept without the right kind of system - like Patriot.
No word on the kind of missiles used. Suspect that a number of Iranian made missiles were in the mix because the damage by some of the impacts was huge - and many Iranian models carry more explosive than their Russian counterparts.
Russia targeted the electrical infrastructure by and large. The most dangerous aspect was the attack on the Dnipro hydroelectric power plant. The threat to blow another dam prior to spring runoff is a severe concern.
Ground action reports got buried, but it seems that the most action continues to be along the Avdiivka front.
Finally, a lot of talk from Russia on a massive mobilization. They could force the people into service - but as noted - where do they get the equipment? But is should also be noted that this is talk to counter the growing rumbling of France and other NATO countries edging forward to deploy into Ukraine.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 11 - April 8
Key overnight developments -
- More results from the recent Shifa Hospital raid coming out.
- US to make ceasefire resolution in the UN Security Council.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
US bringing “immediate cease-fire” resolution for a vote tomorrow morning at the UN Security Council, according to a US UN spokesperson.
US State Department: We call for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza linked to the release of detainees
US State Department: We presented a proposal for a ceasefire in Gaza, but Hamas rejected it
Blinken met with Netanyahu and will later hold a meeting with the Israeli War Council
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza.
In an image released by the Israeli army earlier this evening of some of the 358 terror operatives captured by troops at Gaza City’s Shifa Hospital apparently shows that senior Hamas official Raad Saad is among those detained. Saad has been previously reported to be the chief of Hamas operations.
More and more the raid on Shifa Hospital has struck gold for the Israeli’s and has sent shockwaves thru the remaining Hamas and affiliated islamic terror organizations still in the fight.
IDF Spokesman tell us the Shifa Hospital operation, was the largest operation IDF has conducted since 10/7. We captured the entire leadership of the PIJ in Gaza and many senior Hamas members; we will only reveal their names after their questioning so as not to reveal any intel. So far, a total of 358 have been captured, and we have killed 140 Hamas and PIJ terrorists. The operation is still ongoing.
Looks like one biggie Israel has captured is Raed Saad in Shifa Hospital, he is Major Commander in al-Qassam of Hxmas.
Islamists have been decrying the tactic of returning to the Hospital to reestablish command and control - noting that it has turned out to be a catastrophe.
Operations continue at Shifa, Hamas and Islamic Jihad gunmen are holed up in the building of Al Shifa hospital’s emergency room in Gaza, where an ongoing army raid was expected to go on for a few more days, an Israeli military spokesperson said on Thursday.
“We are evacuating the patients, around 220 patients, to another building,” Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said in a televised statement, “with appropriate medical equipment so that all the patients and doctors can be safe. We continue to call on all the gunmen in the building to surrender.”
Since Monday, the IDF has been mounting a massive military operation in an attempt to root out a resurgent Hamas presence at the compound, which Israeli forces first entered in mid-November.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Overnight and this morning, more ATGMs and mortar shells were launched from Lebanon towards Israel. Israeli army retaliated with air strikes and artillery fire.
Israeli media: A missile launched from Lebanon was intercepted and another fell in an open area in the Western Galilee
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
CENTCOM: a coalition aircraft successfully engaged and destroyed one unmanned surface vessel (USV) launched by Iranian backed Houthi militants from a Houthi controlled area of Yemen. Additionally, coalition forces successfully engaged and destroyed two anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs) launched by Iranian-backed Houthi militants from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen toward the Red Sea. There were no injuries or damage reported to U.S. or coalition vessels.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
“Gaza is on the verge of famine” says EU President von der Leyen after EUCO. “A catastrophic humanitarian situation. Full, rapid, safe and unhindered humanitarian access into Gaza via all routes is essential. 500 trucks or equivalent a day need to enter by land, air and sea”
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel continues to isolate and eliminate remaining Hamas et al cells throughout Gaza.
The intel gold mine of Shifa Hospital has been matched with unprecedented silence by the pro-hamas global cheerleading section.
Now the US is ready to demand a ceasefire via the UN Scty Council. Big change in support and attitude. The resolution is linked to a hostage release already rejected by Hamas. But the fact that the US would do this indicates the radical leftists in the democrat party are gaining the upper hand in their threats of walk away during the November elections - cutting off a large support base.
Iranian backed militias have been strangely silent in eastern Syria and Iraq.
Black Swans -
I responded to Laz’s thread on what is the black swan I’m looking at. Here is my latest interation
Ok laz, here it comes.
Premise that the regime is unwilling to cede the WH at any cost.
The black flag to watch out for is the assassination of Trump and other key conservative leaders.
The swamp has shown great willingness to kill Americans via the Wuhan jab - they would have no qualms about killing others.
The resulting chaos would permit the regime the excuse to impose martial law, erasing the election and permit mass arrests of opponents.
This would generate a backlash in red areas - igniting CW2.
The regime would then turn the 10 million predominantly military aged males that illegally entered the country loose.
It all goes down hill from there, economically and globally.
https://freerepublic.com/focus/chat/4225855/posts?page=135#135
So much for a restful Friday evening. Buckle up for the ride.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
Tyson Foods, one of the world’s largest food processing companies, announced last week it will invest in insect protein.
The American food giant unveiled a partnership with Netherlands-based bug food manufacturer Protix.
“In addition to a cash investment in Protix, Tyson Foods announced that the two companies have agreed to build a large facility which will be used to make bug food,” Frontline News stated.
https://100percentfedup.com/tyson-foods-working-on-new-products-with-insect-ingredients/
OBSERVATION - This announcement came out about the same time Tyson announced it was closing plants and laying off citizens only to further announce that they are looking to hire tens of thousands of illegals for their plants.
You vill eatz ze bugz and be happy.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
The job advertisement by Crowds on Demand — which provides “incentivized activism” (LOL what a euphemism) for companies and groups — is looking for individuals over 7 feet tall and weighing a minimum of 300 pounds.
Crowds on Demand is looking to enlist up to 20 of these towering figures to create an “undeniable intimidation factor,” bring a “giant to the gate,” and help ensure their “protests are taken seriously and can achieve their intended impact.”
https://notthebee.com/article/paid-protester-hire-7-foot-300-pound-giants-intimidation
OBSERVATION - Soon to come in the rent a mob market. However, i don’t expect the Antifa related mobs to utilize this resource any time soon as they have their own intimidation methods.
***
It has been revealed that the big financial backer of the Antifa related “Stop Cop City” efforts in Atlanta is Fergie Chambers, a descendant of the billionaire Cox family. Chambers estimates he’s donated “a couple million dollars” to the group. Not only has he financially supported signature gathering for the referendum, he’s sponsored buses to shuttle protesters to the site, and contributed “hundreds of thousands of dollars” to funds that paid for bail and lawyers for those who had been arrested.
He currently lives in Tunisia. Many suspect as a way to avoid answering to the legal issues his support has created. For instance, 40 of the “Stop Cop City” movement are facing RICO charges that may well entangle him as well. But in fleeing to Tanzania , he may have alienated some of his support in the group.
Terrorism -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
This warning UPDATED as of March 23, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
***
NOTE - Be additionally situationally aware over the next few weeks. If the Russian attack was ISIS based, with all the middle eastern moslems that have penetrated into the country over the past few years, similar assaults are more than possible here.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
U.S. soldiers face a quality-of-living crisis as the Pentagon’s recruitment woes persist, according to top-ranking enlisted officers from across the U.S. military.
“We’ve had a break in trust with our American people,” said Master Chief James Honea, the top enlisted adviser to Navy leadership, in a Wednesday congressional hearing. “We have to do much better at taking care” of our service members, Honea said, adding that he doesn’t want the military to “reach a breaking point” where more people decide to leave the military.
Officers and members of Congress highlighted poorly maintained barracks, food insecurity, sexual violence, and limited access to healthcare and childcare as key problems facing U.S. soldiers today. Economic problems are particularly acute among military families, who often struggle to find jobs for civilian spouses and proper food and healthcare for their children.
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/military-recruitment/
OBSERVATION - We have returned to the levels of the Jimmy Carter military - a near complete shambles. Food ‘insecurity’ angers me because bases have commissaries to provide discounted food to the military. Guess what, those commissaries (as well as BX/PX) have succumbed to local pressures not to discount food in an anticompetitive manner. Prices are near the same levels as off post grocery stores. One needs to reprioritize the purpose of these facilities.
POLITICAL FRONT –
March 22, second funding deadline
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
On Friday, the House voted 286-134 in favor of a comprehensive $1.2 trillion government funding bill to avert a government shutdown. The bill now goes to the Senate. Latest word was that the Senate bypassed opposition and got the bill passed, averting a govt shutdown.
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) is reportedly so unhappy that she has (or is going to) filed a motion to remove Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) from his position.
Rumors abound that House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has assured Johnson of democrat support as long as he puts the Ukraine funding bill up for an immediate vote.
The republican control of the House has been made worse by the snap announcement of Rep Mike Gallagher (RINO) resignation from congress. It will be effective April 19th. It appears to have been carefully timed. Under Wisconsin law, congressional vacancies occurring “prior to the 2nd Tuesday in April” in an election year get filled on a faster timeline. An April 19th resignation will keep Gallagher’s seat vacant until November
This places the republican house majority closing in on just one vote. During the last speakership tussle, there were strong rumors that some republicans would jump ship and support Jeffries as speaker. That dangerous path is still up for play.
OBSERVATION - Its apparent that the democrats have the republican house leadership by their private parts. The grave danger is for democrats to take control of the speakership and all the nasty bills they want to enact with their Benedict Arnold class of RINOs inhabiting the House.
***
Republican voters see it. Independent voters see it. And now, even half of Democrat voters agree that the news media are simply regurgitating Pres. Joe Biden’s talking points, a new survey reveals.
In a national poll of U.S. likely voters, conducted March 18-20, Rasmussen asked the following question:
“How likely is it that the major news media’s political coverage is dictated by talking points from the Biden campaign?”
Nearly two-thirds (63%) of all voters say it’s at least “somewhat likely” that Biden is dictating the contents of political news being fed to Americans, including 42% who consider it to be “very” likely.
Sixty-one (61%) of Republican voters say it’s “very” likely that Biden’s dictating the news – and more than three in four (78%) call it at least “somewhat” likely.
Independent voters also see Biden pulling the media’s puppet strings, with 61% calling it likely and 42% saying it’s “very” likely.
https://mrctv.org/blog/craig-bannister/half-democrat-voters-say-news-being-dictated-biden-campaign
OBSERVATION - Use polls with caution. However, I think Rasmussen has hit on a nerve that in part as a fallout of the misinformation jammed down our throats during the wuhan plandemic - the public is far more skeptical towards the media. One very large facet is the large divide between what ‘bidenomics’ is claiming and what peoples pocket books are saying. People hear how robust our economy is, while standing in line at the grocery story looking to pay outrageous prices for items that were far less expensive just 3 years ago.
***
Confirming what many have thought, former RNC party chair Ronna McDaniel has signed on as a commentator for NBC News and MSNBC.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Many Americans believe the country is becoming a virtual dictatorship with a solid majority saying President Joe Biden wants to put former President Donald Trump in jail to stop his electoral chances, a new McLaughlin poll finds.
In our new national poll 56% of all voters think Biden really wants to stop Trump from winning by putting him in jail. The national poll of 1,000 likely voters with plus or minus 3.1% at the 95% confidence interval was completed between March 9 and March 14.
Only 30% say it’s not true that Biden is trying to jail Trump.
A supermajority of Republicans, 86%, agree that Biden is weaponizing the justice system against Trump.
This is also not a partisan issue.
Independents agree 50% to 33% that Biden is seeking to jail Trump for political reasons, with moderates agreeing 48% to 32%.
https://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/National-March-Presentation-RELEASE-3-18-24.pdf
OBSERVATION - For comparison - Putin just won reelection after first jailing his leading political opponent, Alexei Navalny, and many of his supporters.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
*****
The terrorist attack in Crocus City Hall is generating secondary and tertiary shockwaves across the globe. The attacked by 4 - 6 individuals have at last count at least 115 people are known to have been killed in the attack.
The death toll made it one of the worst attacks on Russia since the 2004 Beslan school siege, when Islamist militants took more than 1,000 people hostage, including hundreds of children.
More than 140 others were wounded and 16 of those people are still in an “extremely serious condition”, including one child, Russian authorities say. They set fire to the shopping mall -theatre complex, destroying it. Security cameras revealed that the shooters coldly and calmly proceeded through the mall making precision shots and not just spraying bullets everywhere. Rumors indicate that they had gasoline in their backpacks that they used to accelerate the fire in the structure.
The shooters reportedly escaped the police dragnet set up around the center.
Some responses included Galereya and Nevsky Center shopping centers evacuated in St. Petersburg. All visitors of rapper Dani Kashin’s concert evacuated in Moscow - “Moscow with fire”. A number of other Russian cities, have started to cancel all mass events - statements of local authorities
Who done it? It is still relatively unclear this morning. Initial response was that this was a false flag? Some associate it with similar events in the past such as Nord-Ost in 2002? Blowing up houses, shooting at concert halls to fuel military actions in Chechnya. Some elements in Russia were quick to associate it with Ukraine.
Ukraine has been quick to distance itself from being associated with it. Ukrainian Military Intelligence calls terror attack in Moscow a provocation by Putin’s regime, aimed to justify more brutal strikes against Ukraine and total mobilization
ISIS has openly claimed responsibility - a claim that US and european intelligence sources concur. In fact, John Kirby warned Americans to avoid Russian concerts and shopping malls in a press conference two weeks ago. Apparently the branch of ISIS associated with the claim is the Afghanistan branch, making this the work of the ISIS-K or the Khorsan group.
Initial reports that the shooters were from predominantly moslem Tajikistan. They were registered in Russian Yaroslavl, Ivanovo and Samara regions. Russian Telegram channels publish a list of six alleged suspects in the terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall.
It should be noted that OSINT inter web folks have taken the released photos of the suspects and have found them linked to militants who were killed during a shootout in Ingushetia back in early March.
Recent - The Russian FSB claims four suspected shooters were detained in the Bryansk region within a few hours of each other. The weapons that were used during the attack on the Crocus City Hall in Moscow, were prepared in advance in a cache. After the attack, the shooters intended to cross the border of the Russian on Federation and Ukraine and had relevant contacts on the Ukrainian side.
OBSERVATION - What to make of this terror attack and associated mess. I think a lot goes towards putin and to see if he is going to effectively try to link it to Ukraine or not.
One interesting link is the Ingushetia claim. Ingushetia is in the North Caucasus shares land borders with Georgia to its south and the Russian republics of North Ossetia-Alania and Chechnya to its west and east.
Anyone catch that - Chechnya? A lot of bad blood with Russia there. The 2004 Beslan school siege was by Chechnians as well.
Chechnians are also very prominent members of the “Legion” efforts in the Belgorod region.
An ISIS - Chechnian linkage is very likely. ISIS has grown bolder under biden’s lack a dazical foreign policy, reflected in the disastrous pull out of Afghanistan.
This mess may or may not get cleared up in the coming days. However, the big concern is that putin may try to tie it to Ukraine and do something very rash.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Some analysts are concluding that Russia’s top brass are appeared to be building up reserve forces to “backfill” heavy battlefield losses so that a summer offensive can be launched w/o “taking a significant operational pause” from more limited spring attacks.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-50 range. Slight chance of snow/rain showers in extended forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The aftershocks from the terror attack in Russia are rippling into Ukraine. See Russia above. Advisor to the Ukrainian president: Kyiv has nothing to do with the shooting in Moscow
Much quieter night with Ukrainian air defense shooting down 31 of 34 Shahed drones. Drones were targeting the Kharkiv and Kremenchuk (near where the dam was hit yesterday) areas.
Explosions and fire at the Novokuibyshevsk Refinery in Samara Oblast of Russia, were reported in what appears to be yet another Ukrainian drone strike on Russian oil infrastructure. Novokuibyshevsk is located around 900km from the border with Ukraine. This would be the 2nd time in just two weeks it has been struck.
In Russia, Local authorities in Belgorod region reporting a drone attack against an enterprise in Staryi Oskol district
Belgorod has been hit with more artillery fire for the 10th day in a row.
Outlook —
There is a black cloud on the horizon if putin decides to use the terror attack as justification to do something very nasty to Ukraine. The fact that the narrative continues to try to tie Ukraine in with the terrorists should be very concerning to all. I’m talking about a tactical nuke level of concern.
Now to hedge myself a bit, I don’t see a high probably of a tactical strike in the near future, only that if putin can cement some kind of a linkage to Ukraine, he can justify to the Russian people the use of those weapons.
However, putin is not totally dumb, but knows full well the ramifications of such an act and potential NATO responses. And that would include a quick escalation to a regional/global nuclear exchange.
Otherwise, Russia seems to be trying to get its ducks in a row for a long term pressing of the offensive through summer - if it can muster the forces to replace the ongoing losses. This is now matching the rhetoric of the past several months. The question continues to be what will they be able to arm these replacements with?
Ukraine has resumed the attacks on Russian petroleum production. I have to wonder if this will cause Russia to shift its attention enough to open a window to strike at the Kerch Strait bridge.
ISRAEL –
Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 11 - April 8
Key overnight developments -
- Russia and China veto US ceasefire resolution.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
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Russia and China veto’d the US resolution calling for an “immediate cease-fire”
Hamas leadership reportedly contacted both countries and expressed their gratitude.
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Iran’s foreign minister had separate phone conversations with Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Palestinian Islamic Jihad leader Ziyad Al-Nakhalah, discussing the situation in Gaza and Palestine
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Intensive IAF bombing of central Gaza overnight.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IAF and artillery strikes on numerous Hezbollah targets near the border.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces continue operations to arrest terror suspects.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Yemeni media: American-British bombing targets Houthi sites in the Yemeni capital and Hodeidah
Houthi media: 5 new American and British raids on Hodeidah in western Yemen
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel continues to isolate and eliminate remaining Hamas et al cells throughout Gaza. The Shifa Hospital operation just brings to light how Hamas has been infiltrating back into areas previously cleared by IDF. This is forcing Israel to re-sweep areas. In many cases, these Hamas elements are small teams that can be quickly taken out but are lethal enough to cause serious damage to unsuspecting or unalert Israeli forces.
The overnight strikes on Houthi positions are an interesting development. And the very much lowered levels of Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping suggest that the announcement by the State dept earlier in the week that the Houthi are no longer able to conduct sustained attacks have a jewel of truth in them. Time will tell.
Israel continues to prepare for the Rafah incursion and appears to be undeterred by biden’s threats of non-support.
Venezuela -
Venezuelan has declared the oil-rich land in between their country and Guyana a new “state” - defying an ICJ ruling against such actions.
Guyana insists it won’t give up the region without a fight, and reportedly stands ready to defend its borders…. with help from the West.
OBSERVATION - It is highly unlikely that Guyana will get any timely outside military support against Venezuela. A former British colony, Britain has declared support, but is currently tied up with Ukraine related efforts and doesn’t have the current capability to project military power in the region. The US has said they would support the country, but our military is ill prepared to deal with any fighting.