Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
Reports coming out that Oregon is in the process of shutting down small farms throughout the state.
There are two different laws that Oregon officials are using to conduct these shutdowns. One involves the state of Oregon’s broadly vague definition of a CAFO, which reads, in part, as follows:
“The State of Oregon defines CAFOs as the concentrated feeding or holding of animals or poultry, including but not limited to horse, cattle, sheep, or swine feeding areas, dairy confinement areas, and poultry and egg production facilities where the surface has been prepared with concrete, rock or fibrous material to support animals in wet weather.”
Based on this definition, a few-acre homestead with pasture and, say, two milking cows and some chickens qualifies as a CAFO if it has any area on the property where rock or gravel is used as a pathway to get to a small barn or coop. As such, they are mandated to comply with volumes of regulations and reporting, or face shutdown.
Another thing Oregon farmers are having to deal with is the state’s rules on water. The only water that farmers are legally allowed to collect in Oregon is rainwater. Everything else, including water from rivers and streams, and even groundwater on private property, is considered a public resource.
Because of this rule, Oregon farmers are not even allowed to use water from their own private wells to irrigate their crops and hydrate their animals without a permit. Coupled with the CAFO rule, this one concerning water use is being abused in such a way as to make it prohibitive, if not impossible, for farmers to run their farms.
“It has slowly rolled out to the point where market gardeners on a half-acre of land are now receiving cease-and-desist orders saying, ‘you can’t water your gardens; figure out another way.’”
https://foodfreedom.news/2024-03-20-oregon-suddenly-starts-shutting-down-small-farms.html
OBSERVATION - Remember, the WEF acolytes recently pronounced family gardening to be a major source of global warming gasses - yep - all in order to strip any degree of self reliance for food from the menu. Big farm are challenging the law, but the communistic Oregon govt wonks don’t care.
***
biden’s EPA has doubled down on the failing EV mandate, by releasing what it calls the “strongest-ever pollution standards for cars,” which it claims will “expand consumer choice in clean vehicles.”
The EPA expects plug-in electric vehicles to make up between 62% and 70% of the automotive market. But this unrealistic target ignores two key facts:
First, consumers are not lining up to purchase electric vehicles, which made up only 7.6% of 2023 vehicle sales despite heavy subsidies.
American drivers simply aren’t embracing EVs because they know these vehicles have shorter driving ranges and longer refueling times. Not to mention that they’re significantly more expensive.
The five-year cost to own an average electric vehicle is more than $92,000, according to the North American Auto Dealers Association.
https://nypost.com/2024/03/20/opinion/bidens-war-on-gas-cars-will-cost-americans-a-fortune/
OBSERVATION - The globalists have to reign in the auto industry and keep it under their thumb - because automobile ownership equals freedom of movement for the masses. It also has to force the 15-minute city concept, so if you can’t drive far in your EV before recharging (and the charging stations are few and far between) you will be contained in a tighter geographic region. And this isn’t even accounting for the drastically increased electrical demand to charge all those vehicles.
***
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released its “State of the Global Climate 2023” report on March 19, 2024, confirming 2023 as the warmest year on record. The report is published ahead of the Copenhagen Climate Ministerial on March 21 and 22, where climate leaders and ministers from around the world will gather to push for accelerated climate action.
OBSERVATION - Components of this report are highly controversial, but that doesn’t stop the broad proclamation that mankind is heating up the planet. As stated, it will be used as a club to force more of the climate change agenda on reluctant countries and sectors.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Chaos broke out at the University of Memphis after BLM protesters chased down TPUSA people who were leaving the Kyle Rittenhouse event. Police had to prevent the hostile crowd from physically attacking them.
The angry BLM crowd then tried to prevent TPUSA from leaving the parking garage at the University of Memphis. Campus and state police had to push the crowd back to allow the cars to leave.
OBSERVATION - This harkens back to the BLM/Antifa days. This should serve as a wake-up and warning call to those attending republican/conservative rallies this year. They are bringing back out the physical terror / threats playbook. Remember in those previous riots, they would also seek out and isolate small groups/individuals as they returned to their cars at near by parking - where they were assaulted.
U of Memphis is also complicit in the violence, changing rules and ticketing at the last minute in favor of the rioters. Expect more as the summer progresses.
***
(FO) The Workers World Party, a U.S.-based Marxist-Leninist political party, is proposing this year’s International Workers Day to center on action in solidarity with Palestine and be referred to as “Workers for Palestinian Resistance Day.”
A recent communique called on “the most radical and advanced sections of the movement” to “take the lead in the [Palestinian] struggle” and “bring about a political turning point.”
Terrorism -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
This warning UPDATED as of March 18, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
Economy-
The Fed has held rates and not cut leaving interest rates unchanged. Still looks at three cuts later this year. Fed policymakers also updated their economic forecasts, sharply upgrading the US growth outlook for this year to 2.1 per cent, from 1.4 per cent in December.
“Inflation is still too high,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell told a news conference.
But despite the recent uptick, Powell said this year’s inflation data “haven’t really changed the overall story, which is that of inflation moving down gradually on a sometimes bumpy road toward two per cent”. But now, it predicts a 2024 median inflation rate of 2.6%.
OBSERVATION - The announcement made the stock market happy. My concern is how much politics is playing into all the Fed happy talk? There are a lot of boat anchors dragging on the economy and there is some thought that any growth will be due to excessive govt spending - skewing the economy - but not in sectors that effect the common person.
***
See “Globalism / Great Reset” above on how EPA is going to destroy the auto industry.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Naval Special Warfare Command commander Rear Adm. Keith Davids relived the commodore of Naval Special Warfare Group Eight Wednesday, citing a loss of confidence.
The Special Warfare Command release does not indicate where Capt. Richard Zaszewski, who took on the command in August 2021, according to his releasable biography, will go. Deputy Commodore Capt. Stig Sanness assumed the commodore duties.
“There is no impact to NSWG-8’s mission readiness,” reads the release.
There are no additional details about what led to the loss of confidence in Zaszewski’s ability to command.
Over his career, Zaszewski has been awarded a Silver Star, three Bronze Stars and a Legion of Merit, among other commendations.
https://news.usni.org/2024/03/20/navy-removes-special-warfare-group-8-commodore-from-command
OBSERVATION - Another ‘purge’ of a probable conservative commander? Special Ops have a history of being very pro-American and anti - progressive. They are commonly listed high on the regime’s list of potential/probable “domestic terrorists”. This commander probably didn’t jump high enough for the military’s LGBT and CRT agenda for the higher ups to tolerate.
***
The U.S. Air Force announced yesterday that it had tested an air-launched hypersonic missile south of Guam on Sunday as part of weapons familiarization training.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Not aggressively reporting here, but peer reviewed scientific studies and associated papers keep coming out pointing to the dangers of the wuhan jab and in some instances indicating it should have never been administered to humans to begin with.
POLITICAL FRONT –
March 22, second funding deadline
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
With all the focus on presidential polling, attention is being shifted towards the congressional races.
Rasmussen Reports released their most recent generic Congressional preference numbers:
“With less than eight months to go before election day, Republicans have a six-point lead in their battle to maintain their narrow House majority.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that if the elections for Congress were held today, 47% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 41% would vote for the Democrat. Just four percent (4%) would vote for some other candidate, but another eight percent (8%) are not sure.”
The GOP’s advantage has narrowed slightly since January, when they led by nine points – 49% to 40% – over Democrats.
OBSERVATION - Control of congress will be critical. If biden steals the WH again and democrats take control of both houses, the flood of anti-american laws would be unstoppable. For this reason, even Elon Musk note that there has to be a red surge or America is toast. These early numbers are not a guarantee for Republican success but show that they are going to have to roll up their sleeves and get in there and fight.
***
Following the Friday decision by Fulton County Judge Scott McAfee regarding motions to disqualify District Attorney Fani Willis and her lead prosecutor (and former love interest) from the case involving former President Donald Trump and multiple other defendants over purported interference in the 2020 election, Trump and his co-defendants filed a motion seeking to have the judge’s order certified so that they could appeal it immediately.
McAfee ruled that Willis could remain on the case but that in order to do so, she must fire Nathan Wade.
The defendants then moved for certification of McAfee’s order to allow for an interlocutory appeal. (Normally, appeals may only be taken after the trial of the case is completed. However, in certain instances, a judge’s ruling may be certified/deemed appealable so that the issue can be addressed on appeal before the case proceeds.)
On Wednesday, McAfee issued a “certificate of immediate review,” thus greenlighting the immediate appeal of his order.
OBSERVATION - Some noted early on that the ‘either / or’ nature of McAfee’s order was double edged. McAfee politically was tied very, very closely to Willis and likely feared that the clear ruling kicking both off the case and recommending criminal charges would be a career ender.
So thru his ruling and this follow-up his is in effect setting up conditions for a higher court to do his dirty work and covering his rear end. I think the depth of the charges and clear perjury by Willis will make it hard for the GA court of appeals to ignore the Trump appeal.
Biden / Harris Watch –
biden conducted a radio interview with a black radio host out of Milwaukee, Michelle Bryant, about a week ago and the audio of one of his comments on the show has now come out.
“For example, how many Black communities are in a situation where they come from a circumstance where they’re in difficult, where they have difficulty? Where the families are in real trouble? Where you have people who...even those families that are really poor don’t have any books in the house. Kids don’t hear a lot of conversation.”
What does he think goes on in a black home?
Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT
The Biden administration is warning states to be on guard for cyberattacks against water systems, citing ongoing threats from hackers linked to the governments of Iran and China.
“Disabling cyberattacks are striking water and wastewater systems throughout the United States,” Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Michael Regan and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan wrote in a letter to governors made public Tuesday. “These attacks have the potential to disrupt the critical lifeline of clean and safe drinking water, as well as impose significant costs on affected communities.”
https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-warns-cyberattacks-against-water-181349931.html
OBSERVATION - These attacks would have a short duration if responded to properly - which in the case of major metro areas would be a challenge. The hackers could adjust flow rates, change chemical additive rates, shut things down altogether. Here in my corner of the Redoubt, things are not very complex and the whole computer network can go down, with crews manually adjusting treatment. Metro areas may not have enough qualified individuals to assign to plants. In many instances, boil orders would be issued until the attack is turned or manual operations take control.
Similar relative short term effects if the cyber attack hits the electrical or natural gas systems. The electrical attack has the potential for being the most severe and longest lasting if the hacks manage to destroy some of the expensive and one of a kind mega transformers that support the grid. It would be unpleasant for a few days, but not world ending.
Illegal Immigration –
200K migrant deportation cases tossed because Biden administration didn’t file paperwork
OBSERVATION - This is not inept work - it was deliberate.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
*****
Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announcing the creation of 2 new ground armies, along with 16 new brigades and 14 new divisions. Very unclear where the new numbers will come from, though there are fears of a new, post-election mobilization.
***
Russia has accused the United States of using commercial satellite operators for its intelligence efforts — and is threatening to take military action in response.
The news comes days after Reuters released a report earlier this month, detailing a classified contract that SpaceX signed with a US intelligence agency to launch hundreds of spy satellites.
“We are aware of Washington’s efforts to attract the private sector to serve its military space ambitions,” foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told reporters, as quoted by Reuters. These systems “become a legitimate target for retaliatory measures, including military ones.”
Insider sources told Reuters that SpaceX was working on a massive constellation of spy satellites under its military-focused business unit, called Starshield. The Elon Musk-led company signed a $1.8 billion contract with the National Reconnaissance Office in 2021, as the Wall Street Journal reported last month.
Logistics –
Hard limits are appearing on Russia’s ability to continue the Ukraine war. It has begun running out of tube artillery (as opposed to rocket artillery) and light armored fighting vehicles (AFVs). The artillery shortage is because tube artillery barrels are wearing out, while the light AFV shortage is because so many have been lost in combat.
Russia’s stocks of self-propelled tube artillery pieces were eliminated by combat losses in the Ukraine, worn-out barrels or exploded from firing with worn-out barrels, and were replaced by towed artillery from its reserve stocks. Now the Russians have lost, worn out or almost worn out everything but their oldest reserve tube artillery, 50+ year-old 122mm towed guns of which they allegedly had about 4,000 in 2021. These are Russia’s last artillery reserve, are being put into service now and, when those are worn out this year, Russia’s tube artillery park will be reduced to their current production of about 200 yearly tube artillery pieces. At that point Russia can no longer continue the war unless their 2024 production increases to at least 2000 a year.
The Russians began the war with about 27,000 light armored fighting vehicles in their active army and in reserve stocks. Half of those have been lost so far. New Russian production of those has been only several hundred a year. The number of Russian light AFV in the field is now plunging because they can no longer replace losses from reserve stocks. That is shown by increasing Russian use of imported Chinese farm tractor carts (which look like big golf carts) to transport troops on roads, off roads, and through mud and heavy snow.
https://www.strategypage.com/qnd/russia/articles/20240320.aspx
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-50 range. Slight chance of snow/rain showers in extended forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
At least 9 Tu-95MS bombers launched a salvo of missiles primarily directed at Kiev. Ukraine shot down all 31 Missiles.
In total, both Kinzhal Missiles were intercepted and all 29 X-101 Cruise Missiles were intercepted.
This was the first major Russian missile attack in 44 days.
This follows a Ukrainian drone attack on the Russian airfield in Engels: according to satellite images available to Schemes, yesterday there were 11 aircraft on its territory, including 9 bombers, 6 Tu-95 and 3 Tu-160. Unconfirmed reports 2 were damaged. The bombers that participated in the missile strike flew out of Engles.
Kyiv suffered some damage from falling debris, setting off fires across the region.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims control over Tonenke village west to Avdiyivka and Alebastrova railway station near Kurdyumivka
Russian Territory –
Authorities in Grayvoron of Belgorod region asking citizens to evacuate to Yaroslavl region
Outlook —
Fighting on the Avdiivka front will continue to be intense as it appears that Russia is trying to reinforce the successes of recent days.
The overnight cruise missile attack by Russian did very little to Ukraine. Cruise missiles that are expected are easy to detect and take down - especially Russian ones. Russia did very little to saturate Ukrainian ADA assets, allowing them to focus on the missiles. They didn’t do a combined attack with drones and ballistic missiles at the same time. So they just threw away a lot of money and a scarce resource.
The targeting of Kyiv was an attempt at intimidation and retribution for the “Legion’s” actions in the Belgorod region as well as recent deep strikes on Russian petroleum facilities. The attack had no other strategically significant target.
It is increasingly possible that some NATO countries will soon be moving forces into Ukraine. One of the current stated objectives of the French appear to be to prevent crossing of the Dniper River - the major obstacle for Russian forces to press further west, should Ukraine defenses collapse completely . Other countries are stating that they are preparing to join France.
By positioning forces outside the disputed zones, back from the front may be an attempt to mitigate Russian threats of attack. The only systems Russia would have to hit these NATO units would be drones and missiles. These NATO forces would probably bring ADA with them, making Russia’s task harder.
Another escalation could be NATO warplanes flying CAP over these units - avoiding the combat areas and essentially creating a no - fly zone over the western half of the country.
The third worrisome issue would be whether or not Russia would risk direct strikes on participating countries. That would guarantee an Art 5 response and blow the whole region up into a much larger war.
Action/response cycle will be critical to monitor in the coming days.
Belarus -
The threat of missile strikes from Belarus against Ukraine remains until June 30, 2024.
Flight restriction zone for flights of all types of civil aircraft (including UAVs) at altitude from 0 to 19,800 meters in the south of Belarus is extended according to NOTAMN O0159/24 from 00:00 of April 1 until 23:59 of June 30, 2024.
The ban on flights over the southern part of Belarus was introduced on February 24, 2022, with the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Missiles were launched against the territory of Ukraine from the south of Belarus and those launched from Russia transited through this part of the country (including UAVs). Since the beginning of the war, at least 721 missiles have been launched from the territory of Belarus on Ukrainian cities. The last missile launch against Ukraine from Belarus’ airspace was recorded on October 6, 2022.
Europe / NATO General –
(FO) France is prepared to send 20,000 troops into Ukraine and could command up to 40,000 allied troops, according to their Chief of the Army, Pierre Schill.
Meanwhile, the Russian government claims 2,000 French troops are already in Ukraine.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 11 - April 8
Key overnight developments -
- More results from the recent Shifa Hospital raid coming out.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
State Dept confirms that Sec Blinken will visit Israel on Friday, listing a whole host of issues he will cover, including the US pressing that a possible Rafah operation must protect civilians & not hinder humanitarian assistance, which will be covered in Washington meetings next week
***
A new poll of Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza shows that 71% still approve of the terror attack by Hamas on October 7 — a result that is almost unchanged since the same poll was taken late last year
The poll found that respondents were unaware of Hamas atrocities:
As we have found in the previous poll, almost all Palestinians think Israel is committing war crimes while almost all believe Hamas is not committing war crimes in the current war. Moreover, more than 90% believe that Hamas did not commit any atrocities against Israel civilians during its October the 7th offensive.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza.
Just cleared for announcement by the IDF is that during the IDF’s operation this week at the Shifa Hospital in the Gaza Strip, Mahmoud Kwasama, a senior Hamas official responsible for the kidnapping and murder of three Israeli teenagers in 2014, was arrested.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The Israeli Army: We bombed two Hezbollah military compounds in southern Lebanon
———WEST BANK——————————-
Heavy internal fighting going on between the Palestinians in Jenin tonight, as tensions boiled over after the earlier Israeli strike in Jenin today which killed 3 terrorists.
The Israeli army says it has wrapped up its brigade-level counter-terrorism operation in the West Bank’s Nur Shams refugee camp, close to Tulkarem.The raid was launched late last night, and began with a deadly airstrike on two Palestinians who were allegedly hurling explosive devices
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
CENTCOM - on March 20, a coalition aircraft successfully engaged and destroyed one unmanned aerial vehicle and United States Central Command successfully engaged and destroyed one unmanned surface vessel, both launched by Iranian-backed Houthi militants from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel continues to isolate and eliminate remaining Hamas et al cells throughout Gaza.
The Shifa Hospital raid continues to make news with the arrest of Mahmoud Kwasama. It makes it very clear that Hamas will use hospitals and other facilities to shelter its forces and direct the battle. The surprise raid may have set Hamas back on its heels and further quicken the liquidation of assets and troops in the northern half of Gaza.
Israel continues to make preparations for its assault into Rafah. biden is clearly against it but Israel is set to go even if US munitions are not allowed.
Things have quieted down on the Lebanese border, but can explode in an instant.
It appears our legislators make laws to help the highest bidder - the one who can afford the best lobbyists... Either WE THE PEOPLE remind them that they're there to serve the needs of citizens, or we hire our own lobbyists or we quit throwing away money to pay for state legislators. This is the same problem we have with squatters... the laws aren't there to protect citizens they're there to protect criminals, or the Chinese, or the scum in DC... Only Trump and DeSantis can take on the thugs and goons and filth that have taken over our legal system.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
In NYC, pro-hamas elements are announcing “Palestine is Everywhere,” which is slated for March 27-30 and sponsored by the group Within Our Lifetime. Some of the ‘events’ include -
- de-occupations
- assemblies and gatherings
- public testimonies
- roving shutdowns
- sit-ins and
- slowdowns
- painting walls
- wheatpasting
- “other happenings.”
“Within Our Lifetime” has caused a lot of other problems in the past including blocking the Holland Tunnel, and the Brooklyn, Manhattan, and Williamsburg Bridges. The group also crashed the Christmas Tree Lighting ceremony at Rockefeller Plaza and was part of the mass of people who participated in a march in which patients at the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, including children, were terrorized.
OBSERVATION - Much of the agenda is to create as much of a nuisance as possible for the weekend. NOTE - This will be during the Easter Weekend. As such I would expect Christian churches and Jewish Synagogues to be particularly targeted.
Terrorism -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
This warning UPDATED as of March 18, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
POLITICAL FRONT –
March 22, second funding deadline
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Soap opera over the budget resolution - its going to pass to continue the govt spending frenzy.
Illegal Immigration –
An MS-13 Gang member, previously deported three times, with a long criminal record was repeatedly shielded from federal immigration enforcement thanks to the sanctuary jurisdictions of Prince George’s County, Maryland and Washington, DC.
The 36-year-old Salvadoran national has a documented record with the violent MS-13 Gang, had been arrested in the United States on 17 separate occasions dating back to December 2005, and was deported three times by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents before returning to the U.S. again, likely after illegally crossing the southern border for a fourth time.
Prince George’s County police arrested the gang member eight times, Baltimore police arrested him three times, U.S. Marshals in Washington, DC, arrested him twice, police in Hyattsville, Maryland arrested him once, police in North Carolina arrested him once, and police in Washington, DC, arrested him once.
On nine occasions, ICE agents filed a detainer against the gang member so they could take custody of him. Prince George’s County law enforcement declined to honor these ICE detainers a total of five times, instead freeing the gang member back into the community.
Similarly, police in Washington, DC, refused to honor the ICE detainer against the gang member and freed him instead.
OBSERVATION - This is completely deliberate actions on the loony leftists in these blue cities. The radical left wants the crime system to become overloaded and unmanageable. This is just the case of one illegal - multiply this by many, many more times.
***
Illegals temporally broke thru a fence at El Paso yesterday, with several hundred forcing their way past TX NG soldiers in an effort to get into the US. The scene was chaotic but the NG quickly got things under control and forced most of the illegals back onto the Mexican side of the fence.
OBSERVATION - New sources showed the break thru, and not the push back. NG also commenced reinforcing the fencing to prevent future attempts. Observers noted that this push was likely part of the annual spring efforts to enter the country as winter conditions shift into spring - trying to beat the summer heat. Also note that the fencing in this area was not as extensive as the Eagle’s pass area.
China –
Thirty-two Chinese warplanes were detected over Taiwan in just 24 hours, the country’s defense ministry said. the second-highest number this year
Twenty of the aircraft were detected after nightfall and included fighter jets, unmanned drones and medium-range transport aircrafts
It comes after Taiwan’s defense minister appeared to admit that US troops have been stationed on islands off the coast of China earlier this week
OBSERVATION -Now has become the typical intimidation response by China.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
*****
Yesterday, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announcing the creation of 2 new ground armies, along with 16 new brigades and 14 new divisions. Very unclear where the new numbers will come from, though there are fears of a new, post-election mobilization. Here are some points to consider
Shoigu has periodically announced these types of changes in peacetime and then not staffed them (like in 2016). This is wartime, so it’s different. Keep an eye on it, but don’t take it at face value.
One mech infantry division need not less than: 160 tanks, 210 IFV/APC, 112 SP Howitzers, 80 MLRS.... so 14 divisions means not less than: 2240 tanks 2940 IFV/APC and next 16 brigades means not less than: 496 tanks 1488 IFV/APC and lots of artillery... And where are special purpose vehicles (ARV etc) trucks, Air defense equipment,etc.
As I’ve noted in the past and is also reported in the link under “logistics’ below, Russia doesn’t have the mothballed stockpile or the production capacity to equip such a force expansion. While Russia still has a surplus of men, they’ve increasingly been getting recruits via mercenary contracts from affiliated countries as well as emptying out prisons.
***
Kremlin spokesperson - “We are in the state of war now. It has became a war, when The West became a party on the side of Ukraine”
“We cannot allow existence of the state, that wants to liberate Crimea and other regions under control of Russia”
Logistics –
According to the Ukrainian Stavka. Ukraine reports that Russia had lost 6,790 tanks and 13,000 other armored vehicles. The armored vehicle losses have been catastrophic. Half these armored vehicle losses occurred during the first few months of the war. That caused Russia to withdraw its troops and remaining armored vehicles from northern Ukraine and move them to eastern Ukraine, where most of the fighting has continued ever since. The Russian tanks and other armored vehicles being used now are mostly older models, including tanks produced in the 1950s and 1960s which were put into reserve in the 1970s. These storage sites were in remote parts of Russia near rail lines so the reserve tanks could be loaded on flat cars and moved to tank restoration operations and then to Ukraine. Russia is still building new tanks but in small numbers, like hundreds a year. Three or four times as many repaired new models or refurbished older model tanks are available. As the war in Ukraine went on, there were fewer Russian tanks available. There was a similar situation with the 13,000 other armored vehicles, which include troop and supply carriers as well as self-propelled artillery.
So far Russia has lost over 10,000 artillery systems. This includes howitzers and large, usually 120mm, caliber mortars. Many towed Russian howitzers were abandoned and captured by the Ukrainians. Russia also lost about a thousand MLRS (Multiple Launcher Rocket Systems), which are usually mounted on heavy trucks. Other losses include 720 air defense systems which include systems that use missiles as well as mobile systems that use smaller missiles and 30mm autocannon.
Russian combat aircraft and helicopters have also been heavy with 347 jet fighters and ground attack aircraft lost along with 325 helicopters. The jets are difficult to replace because they include a lot of imported electronics and other components from European companies which are no longer available due to sanctions for Russia’s attacks on Ukraine. With fewer traditional jet aircraft, the Russians have turned to cheaper UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) which have become used more as expendable munitions than weapons-delivery systems. Another critical loss is the 14,000 trucks for moving supplies and, in tanker trucks, fuel. Ukrainians have, since the start of the war, been particularly eager to destroy Russian supply trucks, especially if they are carrying munitions or fuel. You can always tell when one of these are hit because their cargoes explode as well in a very visible manner.
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htatrit/articles/20240322.aspx
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Two correctional facilities in the Krasnoyarsk region of Russia will soon be closed. Almost all convicts will be transferred to the armed forces to participate in the war against Ukraine. This was announced by the Commissioner for Human Rights in the Krasnoyarsk Territory Mark Denisov, reports The Insider.
***
Russian losses in Ukraine, as of March 17th, have been horrific. Russia reports lower losses, but this estimate, compiled by the Ukrainian military general staff, or Stavka, is considered more accurate. The Ukrainians are closer to the losses than the Russian general staff 850 kilometers away in Moscow. The Russian general staff reports much lower losses but the veracity of this is undermined by reports published in Russia of the thousands of Russians with severe injuries. Left out of these press releases is that the injured are Russian soldiers and the injuries occurred in Ukraine.
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htatrit/articles/20240322.aspx
Economic Impact –
The European Union is considering imposing duties on Russian grain to deprive Moscow of a “source of revenue”
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-50 range. Slight chance of snow/rain showers in extended forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
An unbelievable night of Russian missile / drone attacks. Ukrainian air defense shot down 55 Shahed drones and 37 missiles, in total Russia attacked Ukraine with 151 missiles and drones
- Dnipro hydroelectric power plant attacked and set on fire
- There are about 12 strikes on Zaporizhzhia. There are casualties. Infrastructure facilities were affected, 7 houses were completely destroyed, 35 were damaged.
- Kharkiv electricity facilities hit by 15 ballistic missiles from Russia, plunging the city into total blackout. Water supply disrupted, no city transportation
- In Kryvyi Rih, critical infrastructure hit. Emergency blackouts have been introduced in Dnipropetrovsk region.
- There were also attacks on critical infrastructure in Vinnitsa, Mykolayiv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Odesa, Lviv and Dnipropetrovsk regions.
- Blackouts in Sumy, Shostka and Konotop districts of Sumy region
- Russian drone attacked power infrastructure in Stryi district of Lviv region
- In Khmelnytskyi infrastructure and residential houses were damaged. There are dead and injured.
- Ukrainian electrical power company DTEK confirmed severe damage to its power plants
Outlook —
Round two of the missile attacks were remarkably intercepted by Ukraine. However, missiles are difficult critters to intercept without the right kind of system - like Patriot.
No word on the kind of missiles used. Suspect that a number of Iranian made missiles were in the mix because the damage by some of the impacts was huge - and many Iranian models carry more explosive than their Russian counterparts.
Russia targeted the electrical infrastructure by and large. The most dangerous aspect was the attack on the Dnipro hydroelectric power plant. The threat to blow another dam prior to spring runoff is a severe concern.
Ground action reports got buried, but it seems that the most action continues to be along the Avdiivka front.
Finally, a lot of talk from Russia on a massive mobilization. They could force the people into service - but as noted - where do they get the equipment? But is should also be noted that this is talk to counter the growing rumbling of France and other NATO countries edging forward to deploy into Ukraine.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 11 - April 8
Key overnight developments -
- More results from the recent Shifa Hospital raid coming out.
- US to make ceasefire resolution in the UN Security Council.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
US bringing “immediate cease-fire” resolution for a vote tomorrow morning at the UN Security Council, according to a US UN spokesperson.
US State Department: We call for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza linked to the release of detainees
US State Department: We presented a proposal for a ceasefire in Gaza, but Hamas rejected it
Blinken met with Netanyahu and will later hold a meeting with the Israeli War Council
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza.
In an image released by the Israeli army earlier this evening of some of the 358 terror operatives captured by troops at Gaza City’s Shifa Hospital apparently shows that senior Hamas official Raad Saad is among those detained. Saad has been previously reported to be the chief of Hamas operations.
More and more the raid on Shifa Hospital has struck gold for the Israeli’s and has sent shockwaves thru the remaining Hamas and affiliated islamic terror organizations still in the fight.
IDF Spokesman tell us the Shifa Hospital operation, was the largest operation IDF has conducted since 10/7. We captured the entire leadership of the PIJ in Gaza and many senior Hamas members; we will only reveal their names after their questioning so as not to reveal any intel. So far, a total of 358 have been captured, and we have killed 140 Hamas and PIJ terrorists. The operation is still ongoing.
Looks like one biggie Israel has captured is Raed Saad in Shifa Hospital, he is Major Commander in al-Qassam of Hxmas.
Islamists have been decrying the tactic of returning to the Hospital to reestablish command and control - noting that it has turned out to be a catastrophe.
Operations continue at Shifa, Hamas and Islamic Jihad gunmen are holed up in the building of Al Shifa hospital’s emergency room in Gaza, where an ongoing army raid was expected to go on for a few more days, an Israeli military spokesperson said on Thursday.
“We are evacuating the patients, around 220 patients, to another building,” Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said in a televised statement, “with appropriate medical equipment so that all the patients and doctors can be safe. We continue to call on all the gunmen in the building to surrender.”
Since Monday, the IDF has been mounting a massive military operation in an attempt to root out a resurgent Hamas presence at the compound, which Israeli forces first entered in mid-November.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Overnight and this morning, more ATGMs and mortar shells were launched from Lebanon towards Israel. Israeli army retaliated with air strikes and artillery fire.
Israeli media: A missile launched from Lebanon was intercepted and another fell in an open area in the Western Galilee
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
CENTCOM: a coalition aircraft successfully engaged and destroyed one unmanned surface vessel (USV) launched by Iranian backed Houthi militants from a Houthi controlled area of Yemen. Additionally, coalition forces successfully engaged and destroyed two anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs) launched by Iranian-backed Houthi militants from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen toward the Red Sea. There were no injuries or damage reported to U.S. or coalition vessels.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
“Gaza is on the verge of famine” says EU President von der Leyen after EUCO. “A catastrophic humanitarian situation. Full, rapid, safe and unhindered humanitarian access into Gaza via all routes is essential. 500 trucks or equivalent a day need to enter by land, air and sea”
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel continues to isolate and eliminate remaining Hamas et al cells throughout Gaza.
The intel gold mine of Shifa Hospital has been matched with unprecedented silence by the pro-hamas global cheerleading section.
Now the US is ready to demand a ceasefire via the UN Scty Council. Big change in support and attitude. The resolution is linked to a hostage release already rejected by Hamas. But the fact that the US would do this indicates the radical leftists in the democrat party are gaining the upper hand in their threats of walk away during the November elections - cutting off a large support base.
Iranian backed militias have been strangely silent in eastern Syria and Iraq.
Black Swans -
I responded to Laz’s thread on what is the black swan I’m looking at. Here is my latest interation
Ok laz, here it comes.
Premise that the regime is unwilling to cede the WH at any cost.
The black flag to watch out for is the assassination of Trump and other key conservative leaders.
The swamp has shown great willingness to kill Americans via the Wuhan jab - they would have no qualms about killing others.
The resulting chaos would permit the regime the excuse to impose martial law, erasing the election and permit mass arrests of opponents.
This would generate a backlash in red areas - igniting CW2.
The regime would then turn the 10 million predominantly military aged males that illegally entered the country loose.
It all goes down hill from there, economically and globally.
https://freerepublic.com/focus/chat/4225855/posts?page=135#135