Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
This could be pasted on several topic within this post, but overall, it seems to best fit here for now.
Campaigners are urging consumers to stop buying Tyson products amid its wave of closures of poultry- and meat-processing plants across Iowa, Virginia, Arkansas, Indiana, and Missouri.
They point to Tyson’s efforts to hire thousands of asylum seekers in New York, offering $16.50-an-hour wages and free immigration lawyers, accusing the firm of ditching US-born workers for cheaper migrant labor.Tyson foods is about to be in a world of hurt for firing Americans and hiring ‘asylum seekers’.
The meat-packer already employs about 42,000 immigrants among its 120,000-strong US workforce, and seeks to boost this by cooperating with the Tent Partnership for Refugees, a nonprofit, among other efforts.
‘We would like to employ another 42,000 if we could find them,’ Garrett Dolan, who leads Tyson’s social efforts, told Bloomberg recently.
In recent weeks, the company hired dozens of asylum seekers from Venezuela, Mexico, and Colombia at a job fair in New York City. They travelled to work at its poultry plant in Humboldt, Tennessee.
According to Dolan, asylum seekers fill the gaps at plants with a high turnover of staff — the company needs to fill 52,000 jobs this year.
Tyson Foods Quietly Partnered with Protix for more “Sustainable Protein Production”. Protix is the leading global insect ingredients company.
Last year, China-based Shandong Bao Shuan Group purchased a majority stake in Tyson Foods…
Through a direct equity investment, Tyson Foods will acquire a minority stake in Protix to help fund its global expansion.
In addition, Tyson Foods and Protix have entered a joint venture for the operation and construction of an insect ingredient facility in the continental United States.
OBSERVATION - Replacement ‘conspiracy’, globalist food control (you vill eatz de bugs and be happy), and Chinese overlords. These illegals will be far more willing to work as dirt cheap labor prices. But then again - food safety becomes an increasing concern.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
(FO) Poor People’s Economic Human Rights Campaign, who refer to themselves as the “Poor People’s Army,” are planning protests at the Democratic (DNC) and Republican National Conventions (RNC) this summer.
The reported plan is, following the 15 July RNC protest in Milwaukee, WI, the group is scheduled to march 100 miles to Chicago, IL for the 19 August DNC. The group will make stops along the march to spread their message that both Democrats and Republicans are “dead-end parties” pursuing corporatist policies at home and war abroad.
OBSERVATION - The nature and level of political based violence at both conventions is still speculatory. Numerous democrat groups in Chicago have been on record saying they will make things hot for democrats after having tens of thousands of illegals dumped on their front doors, taking away their govt goodies. Pro-hamas elements are likely to protest there as well - especially if the situation in the Gaza war spins up further.
Violence at the RNC is a certain given Trump’s selection as the presidential candidate. Anarchists and leftists will be out in force. Current assessment on my part is that both conventions will have to deal with serious rioting.
Terrorism -
Ramadan began March 11th.
This warning UPDATED as of March 3, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
RELATED - Israel’s National Security Council (NSC) on Wednesday issued a travel warning for Ramadan, warning of the possibility of attacks on Israeli and Western targets around the world.
POLITICAL FRONT –
March 22, second funding deadline
***
This will not be the final word on this soap opera, stay tuned for season 2.
“I think the result is utterly dishonest,” Harvard Law Professor Alan Dershowitz said Friday after Fulton County Georgia Superior Court Judge Scott McAfee ruled that, even though she committed several offenses, Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis can proceed with her election interference prosecution of Donald Trump.
“We all know there was an actual conflict of interest here,” Dershowitz said in an interview with Newsmax, adding that Judge McAfee “just didn’t have the guts to say it.”
“And this is a weaselly way out,” Dershowitz said.
Dershowitz said the ruling greatly compromises the nation’s legal system, because it’s obvious to anyone who followed the case that, at the very least, Willis’ affair, and money exchanged with, a prosecutor on the case displayed the appearance of impropriety required to remove her.
“Who are you going to believe, this judge or your lying eyes?” Dershowitz asked, rhetorically.
“If anybody believes that she (Willis) actually paid back every penny in cash (to her prosecutor-lover), I got a bridge to sell you in Brooklyn,” Dershowitz said.
People are on death row, based on weaker evidence than that against Wills, Dershowitz observed.
“There are people in prison, there are people in death row, based on evidence less strong than this.”
“This is a scandal and the judge just didn’t have the courage to do the right thing,” Dershowitz said.
***
They are still counting ballots in kalifornia to decide the Senate race for feinswines’ seat. Yep, well over a week now and they still haven’t found the boxes of ‘votes’ to put Schiff over the finish line.
***
The Republican National Committee (RNC) under new chair Lara Trump announced on Friday that they will be working closely with Scott Presler to increase voter turnout ahead of the US 2024 Presidential Election in November.
The announcement was made by the RNC’s new co-chair, Lara Trump. Scott Presler is a prominent conservative activist who has become notable for registering thousands of conservative voters and teaching at voter registration workshops across the country.
OBSERVATION - This is in addition to the jettisoning of several dozen pieces of deadwood in the RNC offices.
Illegal Immigration –
A boat carrying 25 illegal aliens from Haiti has been intercepted in waters near Florida, according to the state’s Governor, Ron DeSantis.
DeSantis told a press conference this afternoon: “They had firearms, they had drugs, they had night vision gear...That vessel was interdicted, those illegal aliens were turned over to the Coast Guard for deportation.”
Officers from the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC) were conducting a patrol near Sebastian Inlet at 7.30pm on Thursday, February 29.
They stopped a 42-foot vessel which was involved in what they described as a “human smuggling operation.”
Investigators found onboard 25 individuals, including five unaccompanied children, alongside the weapons, night vision gear and drugs.
https://www.the-express.com/news/us-news/131270/haiti-migrants-arrested-florida-guns-ron-desantis
OBSERVATION - Weapons, NVGs and drugs - just the kind of wonderful cultural enhancers biden wants for this country.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner but are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed. However, as seen in Avdiivka, when Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with 7 Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer).
*****
Russian presidential election thru March 17
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-50 range. Slight chance of snow/rain showers in extended forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The ground component of the Russian offensive appears to have stalled, combat very limited and not confirmed territorial gains. Most action was in the Avdiivka sector.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 2 of 2 Shahed drones overnight.
Ukraine drones attacked the Syzran and Novokuibyshevsky oil refineries in the Samara region, a fire broke out at both locations according to the regional governor.
Outlook —
News on the “Legion’s “ exploits have dropped off, though Bolograd remains under artillery fire.
Ukraine’s long war against Russian petroleum facilities continues with successes. As I’ve noted before, Russia is a big country with lots of targets that they are unable to cover adequately with their ADA assets. Petroleum facilities are good targets for these drones as it only takes a small amount of explosives to set off fuel storage tanks and the like, which spread damage to adjacent systems.
I’ve also been assessing reports of Russian ‘successes’ in striking key Ukrainian assets Among these are recent hits on Patriot systems, HIMARS launchers and helicopters. A lot of speculation ranging from the new national leader being less OPSEC conscience to says successfully infiltrating into Ukraine and passing time critical targeting information to dedicated Russian strategic/tactical assets.
Finally, action along the fronts is stable and on a lowered level of action. It seems that Russia has lost a serious degree of momentum and initiative. If what I’m seeing is correct, the cause may well be the massive losses Russia suffered to gain Avdiivka combined with terrible logistical support.
Belarus -
Belarus pro freedom sources are noting unusual helicopter traffic. They noted “that a camouflaged command post of the Belarusian and Russian Armed Forces is located on the territory of “Site 400. Kupol”. For the first time we told about this place on the 14th day of the war (motolko.help/en-news/is-the…). Six months later, we came to the conclusion that GPS-jamming near Minsk became a harbinger of war (motolko.help/en-news/how-gp… ). Since then, EW work near Minsk has been virtually unabated, and has only intensified in recent months.”
They don’t see any current threat of a repeat of an invasion as in 2022, but there are some parallels. There are no Russian forces in the area as in 2022, leaving Belarus military in the overall region.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 11 - April 8
Key overnight developments -
- Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave the green light on Friday for Israel to launch a ground invasion into Rafah.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
U.S. President Joe Biden said on Friday that Chuck Schumer made a “good speech” the previous day in which the Senate majority leader called for new elections in Israel and harshly criticized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as an obstacle to peace
***
Bipartisan group of 8 US senators, including SFRC chairman & ranking member, call for Qatar to expel Hamas if talks fail. “If Hamas refuses reasonable negotiations, there is no reason for Qatar to continue hosting Hamas’ political office or any of its members in Doha.”
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Some troop rotations ongoing, bringing in fresh forces.
Overnight, Israeli army artillery and air strikes hit throughout the strip non stop as well as heavy fighting.
Prime Minister Netanyahu has authorized plans for a military operation in Rafah. The IDF is gearing up for the operational aspect and the evacuation of the local population from the area.
***
Amid calls for more ‘food’ relief to enter Gaza, the actual count of trucks entering the strip have reportedly exceeded the average number pre-war. Hamas continues to hijack trucks, and then sell the food on the black market.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israel security forces arrested at least 20 Palestinians from the West Bank last night, including former prisoners.
Clashes broke out between youths and security forces inside the village of Arbouna, east of Jenin
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Senior figures from Hamas and Yemen’s Houthi rebels held a rare meeting to discuss coordinating their actions against Israel, according to a Western report citing Palestinian sources.
This comes as Houthi spokesman Nasr Al-Din Amer announced Hamas is holding the crew of a ship seized by Yemenite jihadis in November.
The Galaxy Leader cargo ship was hijacked the Red Sea 116 days ago with the jihadists having laid siege to the ship and taken hostage the ship’s crew of 17 Filipinos, two Bulgarians, three Ukrainians, two Mexicans and a Romanian.
***
The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), a Marxist-Leninist terrorist group based in Gaza, published a communique saying they “[hold] the American administration and the war criminal Biden responsible” for the anticipated Israeli military occupation of Rafah.
***
A shipment of weapons belonging to Iranian militias was destroyed by US strikes after arriving in Deir Ezzor.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Calls from various govts and international agencies for a ceasefire and two state solution continue to be made. Now the call for no attack on Rafah as well.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel continues to isolate and eliminate remaining Hamas et al cells throughout Gaza. IAF continues to uncover thousands and thousands of cumulative meters of tunnels and bunkers beneath northern and central Gaza. The pattern remains consistent, in that these tunnels tend to be located adjacent to or beneath civilian features. Clearing and destruction of these tunnels is a long process as they have to have booby traps neutralized, items of intelligence worth found and retrieved and explosives set to destroy them. And because Hamas located these tunnels under schools, mosques, hospitals and civilian apartments, the destruction of those tunnels damages/destroys the overlying surface features too.
With Israel apparently giving the military the go for Rafah operations, one can see the clear effort of Hamas to stall the effort with a disingenuous hostage plan. And there are no guarantees that Hamas will hold up their end of the bargain. It is all eyewash to project to the world that they are the victim. Movement of non-combatants out of Rafah have been ongoing for a while and with the GO order, the movement should increase substantially.
“Resistance” efforts in eastern Syria and Iraq continue on the quiet side. Houthis manage to shoot some drones/missiles off on a daily basis, but are also sustaining losses of equipment and munitions in pre-launch configuration. I don’t have the latest on the IRGC Beshar intel vessel believed to be supplying the targeting data to the Houthi, so my general inference is that the vessel continues to be in ‘safe’ harbor and not contributing to targeting efforts.
For now, things have calmed a little between Israel and Hezbollah. But i don’t believe that the calm will last for much longer. Ramadan hype and a move on Rafah by Israel may trigger a substantial attack by Hezbollah. Whether or not it reaches the level of a preemptive strike is unknown at this time. I still see Israel holding off the fight in the north until Rafah is subdued and forces/materials can be redirected to the north.
Happy wear’in of the green to all, looking forward to corn beef and cabbage (along with many rueben sandwiches next week.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
More than 140 House Democrats are demanding that the ability to bar veterans from gun purchases/ownership under certain circumstances be added back to the Military Construction, Veterans Affairs, and Related Agencies Appropriations Act.
For decades, the VA has been reporting veterans to the National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) for mental issues, and such issues include using a fiduciary to manage one’s VA benefits. But this year, the Clinton-era gun ban was rolled back in the Senate by an amendment put forward by Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA).
Following the adoption of his amendment, Kennedy said, “Unelected bureaucrats shouldn’t be able to strip veterans of their Second Amendment rights unilaterally. The Senate did the right thing for veterans and all freedom-loving Americans by passing my amendment today.”
OBSERVATION - We are currently well in the ‘nibbling along the edges’ stage of the final attempts to establish a totalitarian society. The left views veterans as a dangerous group to their goals and have gone after cracks in the laws to force their objectives. Vets by and large are conservative, patriotic group and when the chips are down, more likely to arm up against a degenerate govt. This was at least a step in the right direction for all our rights.
***
Judicial Watch received ATF documents showing that the CIA had multiple operators at the Capitol on J6.
OBSERVATION - Just about every govt agency and their dog were in on the activities surrounding J6 false flag. What continues to concern me is the presence of CIA - who by law is forbidden to spy on US civilians (absent a few key exemptions) and monitoring by the NSA (once again, forbidden by law to collect on US citizens except for a few narrow exemptions).
Terrorism -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
This warning UPDATED as of March 3, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
RELATED - Israel’s National Security Council (NSC) on Wednesday issued a travel warning for Ramadan, warning of the possibility of attacks on Israeli and Western targets around the world.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The Bataan Amphibious Ready Group will return home on Saturday after more than eight months deployed to the Middle East and Mediterranean Sea.
The Bataan Amphibious Ready Group – USS Bataan (LHD-5), USS Carter Hall (LSD-50) and USS Mesa Verde (LPD-19) – deployed in July, with Bataan and Mesa Verde leaving from Naval Station Norfolk, Va., while Carter Hall left from Joint Expeditionary Base Little Creek-Fort Story, Va.
OBSERVATION - This leaves the Eisenhower CSG is still operating in the Red Sea, leaving the Med without a carrier strike group or ARG.
Illegal Immigration –
NYC reevaluating its mandatory housing laws for homeless (now predominantly illegals) as space available goes to zero and costs skyrocket.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner but are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed. However, as seen in Avdiivka, when Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with 7 Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer).
*****
Russian presidential election thru March 17
***
Russia accused Ukraine on Saturday of using “terrorist activities” to try to disrupt its presidential election and former President Dmitry Medvedev decried as “traitors” the scattered protesters who have tried to set fire to voting booths and pour dye into ballot boxes.
“Voting” will be ending today and putin is a given to be reelected.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-50 range. Slight chance of snow/rain showers in extended forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 14 of 16 Shahed drones. Russian army also launched 5 S-300 missiles and 2 Kh-59 missiles.
However, it is being observed that Russia has not launched a large-scale missile strike on Ukraine for 38 days. The last large-scale missile strike was on February 7th when Russia launched 31 X-101/Kalibr cruise missiles and 7 Iskander and Kh-22 missiles at Ukraine.
Some speculate it is due to the lack of A50 support. Also, Black Sea fleet assets capable of cruise missile launches have avoided entering the Black Sea for at least a couple of weeks now.
Ukraine, OTOH, kept Russia very busy overnight with about 12 different Russian ADA sites across western Russia engaging Ukraine drones, reportedly downing 35 drones altogether. Ukraine struck an oil depot in Slavyansk-on-Kuban in Russia located 300km from the frontline with at least 7 UAVs. This is the 6th or seventh oil facility hit in as many days.
Domodedovo Airport in Moscow filled up with smoke after several Ukrainian drone strikes. It’s Moscow’s second-largest airport. Also Operation of Vnukovo, and Zhukovsky airports have been in limited operations due to the drone threat
The “Legion” reported in with Russian volunteers announcing the seizure of the administration building of the Gorkovsky settlement in the Belgorod Region.
Avdiivka -
Russia continues to press the attacks, using tank/APC formations but reports indicate that they’ve seen no success.
Outlook —
Ukraine’s prolific production of long range drones is to say the least very impressive. Its use of these drones is equally impressive. The selection of petroleum refinery facilities is particularly well chosen in that there are many of them and Russia cannot cover every one and provide coverage for the many other potential targets as well. Ukraine is also accurately hitting the fracking towers - the part of the refinery where different grades of fuel are separated. These are complex and will take a considerable time to repair. This also places stress on the Russian civilian population, both thru fear of the attacks and shortages of fuel and related products.
I’m sure Ukraine is watching closely the redeployment of Russian ADA assets to see what other openings have been created for future exploitation.
This may have a backlash thought. As noted it has been over a month since Russia’s last big missile barrage. If Ukraine is down Patriot units, they will be very suspect able to hits from the more modern Russian missiles. Why there has been such a delay is not certain. OSINT bean counters note that Russia does have limited supplies and limited production, but this in its self shouldn’t be that big a factor - unless production and stockpiles have been underestimated. I think a more critical matter may be the loss of 2 A50 AWAC platforms (potential more damaged on the ground in recent days). These aircraft would be monitoring Ukraine ADA as well as other air forces over the target areas as well as controlling Russian strategic bombers carrying cruise missiles. The Black Sea fleet has been a non-player for a longer period and probably expects substantial swarm attacks by Ukraine drone boats if they venture out to launching locations.
Russian ground operations have slowed to a virtual halt, inspire of critical ammo shortages of Ukraine forces. I still see evidence that poor tactical maneuvering, lacking logistical trains and poor leadership at the small unit level being causes that allow the Ukraine defensive positions to take these company and battalion sized assaults out before they can penetrate.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 11 - April 8
Key overnight developments -
- Israeli leaders keep preparing military and public for incursion into Rafah.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant convened a “special meeting” on the efforts to return the hostages held in the Gaza Strip this evening, his office says. Attending the meeting were senior officials in the Israeli army, Mossad, Shin Bet, and representatives of the negotiations, the Defense Ministry adds.
***
After a week of speculations, Israeli security officials confirmed on Friday that all signs indicate that Marwan Issa, Hamas’ third-most important commander, died in an Israeli airstrike on March 9, Israeli media reported. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu praised the security officials’ estimation as “a great achievement for Israel” and added, “they will all die, we will reach them all.”
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Some troop rotations ongoing, bringing in fresh forces.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The Israeli Army reports that the IAF bombed Hezbollah targets in 4 locations in southern Lebanon.
After a meeting with the head of Iran’s Quds Forces, Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah declared that his terror group would be prepared to fight alone in a full-scale war with Israel, as reported by Reuters. Nasrallah and Iran’s Quds chief discussed the damage an all-out war would do to Hezbollah and the effects a war would have on Iran.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Syrian Military sources report that IAF stuck targets in the Syrian Golan region.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israel security forces arrested at least 20 Palestinians from the West Bank last night, including former prisoners.
Israeli security forces stormed the eastern area in the city of Nablus and town of Al-Ram, north of Jerusalem
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Sec State Blinken met with Bahraini Crown Prince Salman bin Khalifa to reaffirm our shared commitment to freedom of navigation in the Red Sea and discuss U.S. efforts to secure a ceasefire of at least six weeks in Gaza
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel continues to isolate and eliminate remaining Hamas et al cells throughout Gaza.
The Rafah operation seems to be on track and will likely start in full within the next two weeks. Military preparation and readiness for action will degrade past that time.
I don’t see the hostage negotiations coming to any agreement. Hamas has too many unacceptable conditions that they are unwilling to compromise on and Israel has little patience for the delays, for they can see the end of Gaza operations in sight and can next prepare to pivot to the major threat posed by Hezbollah.