Replies

CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

Relatively quiet weekend. Biggest issues have been riots/looting associated with ferals unable to control themselves on Spring Break.

Terrorism -
Ramadan begins March 11th.

This warning UPDATED as of March 18, 2024

ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.

RELATED - Israel’s National Security Council (NSC) on Wednesday issued a travel warning for Ramadan, warning of the possibility of attacks on Israeli and Western targets around the world.

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A middle eastern man caught crossing the US/mexico border illegally claims to be a member of Hezbollah and was entering the country to build a bomb and launch terror attacks.

Economy-

Markets are on edge this week as Federal Reserve officials prepare to signal whether they still believe three interest rate cuts are likely in 2024.
That new projection on Wednesday will come in the form of a so-called “dot plot,” a chart updated quarterly that shows the prediction of each Fed official about the direction of the federal funds rate.

In December, the dot plot revealed a consensus among Fed officials for three cuts for 2024, the first sign that the central bank was prepared to start loosening monetary policy.

Now that projection is in question following a string of hotter-than-expected inflation readings and cautious commentary from Fed officials.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/investors-are-about-to-find-out-whether-fed-still-expects-3-rate-cuts-in-2024-080006502.html

OBSERVATION - The major banking interests are looking for reductions to get the money supply flowing again. Others still express concerns over last month’s “spike” in inflation and may likely cause the Fed to hold off reductions.

POLITICAL FRONT –

March 22, second funding deadline
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL

***

Over the weekend the MSM totally soiled their diapers spreading the “bloodshed” lie. Pushback was swift and vicious as the fullness of the transcript proved them to be political hacks. The massive, across the board headlines unveiled the extent of the conspiracy and smear attack. Remember, it is this same class of arrogant ignoramuses that want to censor much of the interwebs to prevent “misinformation” from reaching the public.

Biden / Harris Watch –

Washington Post columnist Kathleen Parker is calling on Vice President Kamala Harris to step aside -
“The Kamala conundrum comes down to this: She was picked because she was Black and female, a combo tantamount to job security. Now that she has become a burden to the Democratic ticket, Biden can’t fire her. He can’t risk alienating his base. Full stop.”

***
After the release of the Hur report, Joe Biden decided it was a good idea to address the nation and throw a hissy fit. It was well after his bedtime, and it went really badly for him. Not only did he make some critical mistakes, he also blamed his staff for his having classified documents in the first place.

“Top aides to President Biden involved in his mishandling of classified documents were given plum promotions within 24 hours of the release of special counsel Robert Hur’s damning report,” reports the New York Post. “Annie Tomasini, a Biden staffer since his Senate days, was named a deputy White House chief of staff on Feb. 8 — and the next day Richard Ruffner moved into Tomasini’s old gig as director of Oval Office operations.”

https://pjmedia.com/matt-margolis/2024/03/17/joe-biden-promotes-staffers-he-blamed-for-mishandling-classified-docs-n4927388#google_vignette

Illegal Immigration –

More and more reports of illegals committing murder, rape and other serious crimes across the country after being allowed in by biden’s open border policy as well as being thrown back onto the streets with no jail and no bail requirements.

North/South Korea –

North Korea launches apparent ballistic missile, Japan Defense Ministry says. Likely one of their short ranged missiles, due to the lack of more specifics on the launch.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 21, 2024.

Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner but are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -

- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.

Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.

With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.

In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed. However, as seen in Avdiivka, when Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.

Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.

Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.

Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.

The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..

While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with 7 Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone.

Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.

Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer).

*****

Putin has won the presidential election in Russia with winning 87% of the vote securing his position in power until 2030 or beyond.

Economic Impact –

The recent blitz of Ukrainian drone attacks has destroyed/damaged more than 30% of Russian oil production (as reported from in 2020, although most haven’t been completely taken offline - but these could be hit again).

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-50 range. Slight chance of snow/rain showers in extended forecast.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 17 of 22 Shahed drones overnight.

Explosions were reported in Kremenchuk of Poltava region. After the explosions, a fire broke out in one of the districts of Kryvyi Rih. Unstated Russian munitions - either drones that weren’t shot down or tactical ballistic missiles.

Belgorod region continued to be hit with artillery fire. Other than that , the “Legion” was quiet in the news.

Russian Territory –
4 drones were reportedly shot down at Slavneft-Yanos refinery in Yaroslavl

Outlook —

Russia reportedly made small gains in the Avdiivka sector overnight. ISW analysts made an interesting observation on the fight reporting that a commander of a Ukrainian battalion operating near Avdiivka stated on March 15 that Russian forces near Avdiivka are innovating and changing classical Wagner Group-style infantry-led “meat assaults” with assaults using armored vehicles to increase and maintain constant pressure on Ukrainian forces.

This tactic change provides greater direct fire support, but at the same time exposed armor to destructive attacks. This likely accounts for the increase in reported destruction of tanks and APCs in recent days/weeks.

Even with the tactic change, the Russian offensive is still bearly creeping along. The only thing helping them is the critical shortage of ammunition for Ukrainian forces.

Moldova/Transnistria -

A video went sub-viral yesterday showing a MI-8 helicopter reportedly belonging to the separatist military in Transnistria being blown up by a drone. Touted as a Ukrainian attack on Transnistria forces, OSINT sleuths quickly noted that the helicopter was positioned outside of a museum and that it looked inoperative (windows broken out for example). It was also suspiciously covered by a web camera which allowed recording of the attack.

Recent calls by the breakaway region for Russian support and inclusion will likely be amplified because of this “attack”.

ISRAEL –

Now the war is in its 5th month.

Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 11 - April 8

Key overnight developments -

- IDF forces raided the Al Shifa Hospital once again, capturing potentially 80 Hamas terrorists and killing a senior Hamas leader.

- Hostage/cease fire talks continue forward in Qatar.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.

***

UN report: It is still possible to avoid the spread of famine in Gaza through a ceasefire and increased aid entry.
NOTE - more food trucks are entering Gaza than before the war.

***
The Israeli army announces the death of 250 soldiers since the start of the ground operation in the Gaza Strip

***
Israel to offer six-week Gaza truce for 40 hostages in Qatar talks, Israeli official says.

Israel will send a high-level delegation headed by its Mossad chief to Qatar on Monday for mediated talks with Hamas designed to secure the release of 40 hostages in exchange for a six-week Gaza truce, an Israeli official said.

This stage of the negotiations could take at least two weeks, the official estimated, citing difficulties that Hamas’ foreign delegates may have in communicating with the group in the besieged enclave after more than five months of war.

Sinwar now reportedly managing hostage deal negotiations. Hamas leaders abroad have no authority to make decisions, ‘every comma, every period, will take 24-36 hours,’ source says.

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza.
Israeli troops raided the compound of Gaza’s Al Shifa Hospital early on Monday in an operation that Palestinian health authorities said caused multiple casualties and set off a fierce fire in one of the buildings. Although the IDF said it achieved surprise on a group of terrorists who had returned to Shifa, it said it had both given a general warning to the medical staff there and had been following the return of terrorists for a long time.
More specifically, the IDF said it had planned the operation for a number of days, waiting for the right timing when they could most catch Hamas off guard.

During the IDF and the Shin Bet’s reinvasion of Shifa Hospital in northern Gaza on Monday, they killed Hamas’s Interior Ministry Operations Chief Faack Mabhough. Mabhough has been in charge of all of Hamas’s internal security forces both during the war and during peacetime. Israeli forces killed Mabhough during an exchange of gunfire when he resisted arrest and had been trying to hide within the Shifa complex.

IDF said it had arrested around 80 persons, some of whom are Hamas. The IDF is currently distinguishing who is among Hamas and who is a civilian or medical staff.

IDF took over Shifa in mid-November, uncovering video footage showing hostages being brought into the hospital, discovering a lot of militarily weapons and equipment as well as uncovering a significant tunnel/bunker network beneath the hospital and surrounding compound.

***
Aircraft targeting the east of the city of Rafah, south of the Gaza Strip.

Israeli Chief of Staff: We attacked senior Hamas leaders in the Nuseirat camp in Gaza, and we will continue to do so

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Israeli Airstrikes in the Qalamoun region, north of Damascus

———WEST BANK——————————-

25 Palestinians were arrested in the West Bank last night.

Confrontations broke out between rioters and security forces in the town of Arora, northwest of Ramallah.

***
Israeli Police are preparing for mass terrorist infiltration from Jenin into Jewish settlements. Israel Police’s Lowlands division conducted training exercises and security assessments throughout Israel’s Northwest in recent weeks. These precautions are due to the ongoing warnings of possible Palestinian terrorist infiltrations into Jewish settlements within the region.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Islamic Resistance in Iraq - We attacked with drones an Israeli drone base in the occupied Golan.

U.S. official claims that the Houthis are unable to continue escalation.

——— FORECAST ————————-

Israel continues to isolate and eliminate remaining Hamas et al cells throughout Gaza.

The Rafah operation seems to be on track and will likely start in full within the next two weeks. Military preparation and readiness for action will degrade past that time.

Meanwhile, lead by the US (biden) pressure continues to dissuade Israel from cleaning out Rafah. So far Israel has flatly rejected those efforts, and barring some unforseen event, will proceed to clear out the town in the very near future.

I question the quality of the US assessment that the Houthi’s are unable to escalate their attacks. That general thought has been echoed for several months now and every time the Houthis surprise us.

Africa general –

Niger just told the US to close down its 110 million dollar drone base & 650 U.S. soldiers to leave the country.

Al-Qaida is threatening the capital city from the West while ISIS is to the north & Boko Haram to the south.

OBSERVATION - Another example of biden’s abhorrently bad foreign policy.

... IDF forces raided the Al Shifa Hospital once again, capturing potentially 80 Hamas terrorists and killing a senior Hamas leader.

What what? No women and children killed? /s

Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024

(FO) S&P Global Vice Chair Dan Yergin said he is fundamentally concerned about the coming surge in electricity demand from the energy transition, increased data center construction, and Artificial Intelligence development.

“Is the capacity going to be there? That used to be a developing world question. Now it’s also a developed world question,” Yergin said.

OBSERVATION - Key to the WEF globalist plans is the tearing down of the ability to use power. This is contra to the parallel demand to electrify everything - especially the EV world. Cheap, abundant electricity has been one of the most effective means of enhancing longevity and industrial revolution than just about anything else in history.

IN RELATED - (FO) Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is “seriously considering” changes to the “Clean Power Plan 2.0” that will accelerate the forced shutdown of coal-fired power plants that do not install carbon capture technology.

Reportedly, Biden administration decided to change the technology standard for the emissions restrictions, no longer allowing coal-fired plants to burn hydrogen fuel and requiring carbon capture technology only.

Utilities say carbon capture technology is not viable at scale and have already opted to let coal and some LNG plants retire. This rule change will accelerate that power generation capacity loss with no likely replacement.

OBSERVATION - Killing any fossil fuel related power source. The goal of the WEF being acted upon by the marxist leftists in the WH.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

See “Central / South America General-“ below on how Haiti may replay here in the US.

****
LAPD forms a special task force to combat organized foreign gangs burglarizing homes. Increasing numbers of home breaking / thefts in rich section of the LA area have been driven by illegal gangs that take advantage of 90 day visas to enter the country and rob citizens, then returning to their country of origin with all their loot. These gangs operate a high tech operation that jams WIFI based security measures - blinding alarm systems, enabling quick penetration and exit of homes that have been pretargeted.

OBSERVATION - This is also a symptom of the overwhelmed immigration system combined with under manned law enforcement.

***
With support on the decline, observers are noting that the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), over the weekend, called for the global protest movement against Israel to intensify. The far left in the US has echoed the call.
The fervor for pro-hamas mass demonstrations have significantly declined over the past month and is not as nice and shiny to leftists of late. Here in the US i suspect that with the approaching elections, efforts will be made to more closely integrate pro-hamas based protests into anti democrat or anti Trump events - bringing with it a greater synergy and enthusiasm.

Terrorism -
Ramadan begins March 11th.

This warning UPDATED as of March 18, 2024

ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The Navy fired the commander of one of its guided missile submarines on Monday — the third submarine firing in the last seven months — according to a press release on Wednesday. The commanding officer of the USS Ohio sub’s gold crew — Capt. Kurt Balagna — was relieved by Rear Adm. Nicholas Tilbrook, the commander of Submarine Group 9, “due to a loss of confidence in his ability to command,” the Navy said. Balagna appears to be the third Navy commander relieved this year. However, since last September, Navy leaders have fired the skippers of the USS Georgia and USS Alabama as well. Navy officials have previously said that in 2023, the service relieved 15 commanding officers.

OBSERVATION - We are seeing the possible combination of two forces at play. The first one being poor training of commanders due to the overlay of CRT/DEI race and gender inclusive training. The second could be a purge of politically unreliable senior officers. Both are concerning.

POLITICAL FRONT –

March 22, second funding deadline
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL

***

Trump unable to get $464m bond in New York fraud case. The former president must either pay the full amount in cash or secure a bond to continue his appeal.

***
Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson is concerned that the First Amendment is “hamstringing the Government” when it comes to censoring speech on social media. She made the comment during a hearing a lawsuit against the US govt for pressuring social sites to censor ‘misinformation’ (which has since been proven to be factual information). Uh, well, yeah, that’s literally the entire reason it was created.

OBSERVATION - She speaks the brainless concept of what the progressive left think of how the constitution does or does not operate. You can take her ‘thoughts’ and multiply it by millions of mind numbed democrats. If the government can stop what you say, why not stop who you are allowed to pray to or who you are allowed to meet or any type of protest against the government at all?

IN RELATED - USSC observers note that the court is inclined to side with the Biden administration, allowing federal agencies to restart what is effectively government censorship of online political speech just in time for the 2024 election.

***
(FO) The White House objected to House Republicans’ proposed continuing resolution (CR) to fund the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) through 30 September and requested an additional $1.56 billion in “border-related” resources. A GOP Congressional leadership aide said the additional money is a “blank check to simply ‘manage’ people into the country and bail out sanctuary cities,” and the new demand “has placed us on the brink of a shutdown.”

OBSERVATION - biden has ZERO intentions of closing the border, but intends to use as much money as possible to ACCELERATE the tidal wave of illegals into the country and plant them here under the maze of ‘regulations’ and executive orders made over the past three years.

***
Obama arrived at 10 Downing Street to meet with senior UK political and security officials. This unannounced trip comes just days after a bombshell report revealed he involved the UK’s intel agencies along with the CIA to spy on the Trump campaign and administration.

OBSERVATION - A very public entrance to 10 Downing Street. Leads credence to the rumor that he is the one pulling the strings in the biden camp.

Biden / Harris Watch –

biden has new shoes that are suppose to help his balance. OMG.

Illegal Immigration –

Supreme Court indefinitely blocks Texas from enforcing immigration law. Gov. Abbott’s response to the SCOTUS decision to indefinitely block Texas from enforcing a law to allow state officials to arrest and detain people they suspect of entering the country illegally:

“SCOTUS temporarily halted enforcement of SB 4 but Texas is still using its authority to arrest illegal immigrants for criminal trespass and other violations of law.
We continue building the wall, use NG to erect razor wire barriers to repel migrants & buoys remain in river.”

OBSERVATION - A setback for TX and America, but as Abbott notes, will not stop the arrests on other laws.

China –

Struggling Chinese property giant Evergrande and its founder, Hui Ka Yan, have been accused of inflating revenues by $78bn (£61.6bn) in the two years before the firm defaulted on its debt.
The country’s financial markets regulator has fined the company’s mainland business Hengda Real Estate $583.5m.
Mr Hui also faces being banned for life from China’s financial markets.
In January, Evergrande was ordered to liquidate by a Hong Kong court.
The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) laid much of the blame on Mr Hui, who was once China’s richest man, for allegedly instructing staff to “falsely inflate” Hengda’s annual results in 2019 and 2020.
Mr Hui was also fined $6.5m, according to a filing by the company to the Shenzhen and Shanghai stock exchanges.
Evergrande did not immediately respond to a BBC request for comment.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-68603195

OBSERVATION - The Evergrande saga is just the tip of the iceberg for China’s troubled markets as there are many other similar companies on the edge of the abyss as well.

Japan –

Japan’s central bank has raised the cost of borrowing for the first time in 17 years.
The Bank of the Japan (BOJ) increased its key interest rate from -0.1% to a range of 0%-0.1%. It comes as wages have jumped after consumer prices rose.
In 2016, the bank cut the rate below zero in an attempt to stimulate the country’s stagnating economy.

In a statement announcing the decision, the BOJ said it will keep buying “broadly the same amount” of government bonds as before and ramp up purchases in case yields rise rapidly.
Expectations that the BOJ would finally raise rates had been growing since governor Kazuo Ueda took office in April last year.
The latest official figures showed that even though the rate of price rises has been slowing, Japan’s core consumer inflation held at the bank’s 2% target in January.