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Threat Matrix 2024
Jan 1, 2024 | Self

Posted on 01/01/2024 5:05:22 AM PST by Godzilla

Welcome to Threat Matrix 2024

For historical reference TM2023 link is 

https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4120141/posts?page=1#1

Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 23nd year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.

2023 has been “historic”: Continued inflation Record illegal immigration Record crime Record housing prices and Unprecedented prime lending rate increases. Push to globalize the economy, food production and energy

I expect 2024 to be even worse as we are facing, among many things -

- 2024 is a political year with all the deep divisions and turmoils that brings. - Political assassinations - The potential for a serious and deep recession - CBDC stripping Americans of their free use of money - Race and other ethnic wars in the US as illegals mark out territory - Continued massive increase in crime - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - - Continued combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Potential Chinese move on Taiwan – breaking analysis - Israel and Hezbollah/Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems. . And this is just a short list.

It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.

For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.

How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.

Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.

My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose and I don’t expect this to let up, only increase as the year progresses.

Will we even make it to the 2024 elections without things flying apart? Will the democrats / leftist manage a way to steal the election? Will the US find itself in the early stages of a civil war / national split up? The year promises to be very bumpy, so buckle up and prepare yourselves for what is to come.


TOPICS: Conspiracy; Military/Veterans; Miscellaneous; Society
KEYWORDS: globalism; news; threatmatrix; threats; tm
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
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To: Godzilla
Rasmussen needs to do a poll on the percentage of American citizens who favor the death penalty for monsters killing people for political reasons. Then another for those who want the death penalty carried out within 5 months of the sentencing.

It's time for the 'normals' to have their voice represented by poll takers.

1,321 posted on 12/20/2024 10:20:47 AM PST by GOPJ (https://files.catbox.moe/rwi6a2.jpeg //files.catbox.moe/14hch9.jpg <img src="[image url]">)
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To: null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

Tis a very dark day . . . . .


Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Dec 5, 2024

The latest inflation report in the form of the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index showed a 2.4% rise in November on an annual basis, just below the 2.5% estimate of economists polled by Reuters. Consumer spending increased in November in another sign of economic resilience.
NOTE. Called Christmas shopping

https://stocks.apple.com/AaU8Uc9SsS6CUBpCARns9WA


POLITICAL FRONT –

The third spending bill has passed the House of Representatives, with Democrat support. The Senate has voted to pass the budget deal only hours after the House averting a shutdown.

OBSERVATION - I’m really ticked off how these vile swamp creatures view this as some sort of a game of coup instead of being concerned about the country. Bottom line is that even though Trump isn’t even president yet, he still got 90% of what he wanted and denied democrats of 1400 pages of pork.


INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –

Jagmeet Singh, his coalition ally in Canada, announced that he will submit a motion of no confidence in the government after the House of Commons returns from winter recess on January 27.

OBSERVATION - Trudeau is on the way out after this action. His popularity has plummeted and only remained PM in the last election due to coalition forming games. His conservative opponent is currently experiencing high favorability ratings.


Biden / Harris Watch –

Biden reportedly set to end his term on vacation (again) in Italy.

No word on what the big excitement was the other day.


Illegal Immigration –

Federal agents raided the Bronx and arrested 22 members of the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua after following… an ankle monitor.
Yep, the high-tech accessory belonged to a fugitive with 3 prior arrests, because apparently, 3rd time’s the charm.
The gang, tied to drug trafficking, robbery, and human trafficking, has been exploiting NYC’s migrant shelters to expand operations. Some suspects had criminal records in multiple states after entering the U.S. illegally.
As concerns grow about gang activity in NYC, Mayor Adams is pledging to “crack down” on violent offenders.
Sources: Fox News

https://x.com/marionawfal/status/1870142670384861503?s=61&t=Ca4dYBe3FZLWI7Zi7HkShg

OBSERVATION - The tempo of targeting TdA will accelerate in the coming year. Along with it may well be violence by TdA in retribution.
Mayor Adams may well have been red pilled due in large part to the persecution by his leftist ‘friends’ when he opened up about the advanced crime from illegals.


China –

China is in the process of setting up its own satellite constellations to challenge Starlink. China saw how critical it became for Ukraine and recognizes application for itself. Costs for China to fill out the network of satellites is expected to be high since China doesn’t have a reusable booster stage, though they are attempting to develop one.


Russia -

Logistics –

OSINT folks have been scrutinizing satellite photography of Russian mothballed tank/armor storage sites to gauge the status of Russian losses. At two of the largest, they note that there are no serviceable tanks/apcs and that what is left looks to be just shells of vehicles throughly picked over for parts. Given the sanctions induced reduction in the production of new tanks/APCs, the loss rate for Russia is soon to force replacements to hit the wall. Many are viewing 2025 as the critical year for Russia to be able to sustain the war effort at its current pace.

Other OSINT analysis of the type of equipment losses now show the predominate tanks model being lost are T62 series tanks. The losses off T54/55 series are on the increase. These are post WW2 thru Cold War vintage and to keep them running is like the reason mothball storage yards have been picked clean.


Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30s and rain and snow throughout much of the period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukraine conducted its first ground attack without infantry, using only robotic systems, - ISW.
The operation near Liptsi, Kharkiv region, saw the use of dozens of drones equipped with machine guns and mines, and reportedly successfully destroyed Russian positions.

Ukraines Air Force reported on a shahed drone attack overnight. Out of 113 launched, 57 were shot down and 56 were suppressed by electronic warfare.

Russian losses per 21/12/24 reported by the Ukrainian general staff

+1860 men
+10 tanks
+18 APVs
+32 artillery pieces

Ukraine drones, under the influence of Russian electronic warfare, crashed into an elite residential complex in Kazan, according to Russian media. The target was likely gun powder plant in Kazan’, according to different reports at least 8 drones reached the city, most crashed into the buildings due to electronic warfare, at least one was shot down
Fires in several residential houses across Kazan, including a 5 story building at Klary Tsetkin street

Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast, near Kupyansk, within Toretsk, and in the Vuhledar direction.

Damage to residential houses in Zaporizhzhia as result of explosive drones attack.

Ukraine Kursk Offensive-

In Kursk region Ukrainian forces have repelled 50 Russian army assaults, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports

Kharkiv Front -

Ukrainian Khartiya unit had conducted fully robotised assault on the Russian positions near Lyptsi of Kharkiv region. Only unmanned ground and aerial combat vehicles used

Summary —

Russian losses returned to their seasonal highs yesterday. Minor territory losses by Ukraine, but they add up.

Russian personnel replacements to the front earlier this year was about 30,000 per month based on losses of about 1000 per day. The past few months, daily losses regularly exceeded 1500 per day and in the past few days have pushed higher. This would result in Russia needing 45,000 to 55,000 per month. Russia may be able to sustain these losses in the short term, indeed, they have been doing so for the past few months. In the long term though, Russia is either going to have to tailor its offensive focus down even more or find ways to increase conscription / volunteers to fill the losses.

As noted above in Russia - logistics, not only is Russia facing a growing shortage of people but key equipment as well. This has already been seen on the front lines with Russia trying to use motorcycles, ATVs, civilian vehicles, etc to get the troops to their jump off points for attacks.

It doesn’t seem that putin is willing to stop the overall broad offensive efforts of the army. So now the kremlin is trying to find ways to incentivize service to boost numbers.

Ukraine is struggling keeping its manning up as well, though actual numbers of losses versus recruiting are held tightly. Relative regular resupply by the West of tanks, etc help replace losses.

2025 seems to be a marathon race by both sides just to get thru another year with Russia facing potentially the greatest hurdle to sustaining combat at current levels.


Europe / NATO General –

Terrorist who attacked the Christmas market in Magdeburg, Germany is reportedly a man from Saudi Arabia, born in 1974. At least 5 people were killed, and up to 80 were injured.
Germany in the past refused to extradite the individual to Saudi Arabia on rape charges. He also had no known radicalized associations or other actions.

OBSERVATION - Moslem driving vehicle into a German Christmas market harboring no radical inclinations. . . . . .

Other investigators are suggesting that the terrorist was involved in radical islam but maintained and participated in relative levels of anti islam to maintain a cover. Germany’s insufferable excusing of radical islamists in the nation will likely keep this under wraps.


Middle East / N. Africa General -

LIBYA -
Russia’s plan to maintain presence in the Med and to counter NATO by using Libya still isn’t gaining traction, at least with some Libyan factions.

Libya remains divided, with Turkey-backed forces controlling the northwest, including Tripoli, and Kremlin-backed General Khalifa Haftar holding the northeast. This sets up the same Turkey v Russia scenario that bit Russia in Syria. Fact there was a lot of fighting a few years ago between these elements back when Wagner was at its prime and before Ukraine.

Russian flights to the region have drawn criticism from Libyan Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, who stated, “Libya is not an arena for the conjunction of international interests,” warning that more weapon transfers threaten peace and security.


ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Houthi missile penetrates Israeli defenses - strikes a play ground in Tel Aviv

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Netanyahu states that Israel will not withdraw from Gaza until Hamas is completely eliminated.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Scattered air and artillery strikes on holdout locations of Hamas et al forces.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Hezbollah has had a bad year. Israel destroyed most of its leadership with a brilliant special operations plan. Hezbollah’s missile and rocket attacks on Israel from Lebanon finally resulted in Israel crossing the border to attack Hezbollah’s ground forces and some of its launching sites.

Worse, at the end of the year the head of Sunni Islamic terror group HTS led a force of armed supporters to overrun and occupy most of Syria in less than two weeks. Syrian president Bashar al-Assad fled to Russia with his family and his armed forces fell apart. This meant Hezbollah in Lebanon could no longer receive supplies from Iran, which had for years delivered supplies via a route from Iran, through Iraq and Syria to Lebanon. Hezbollah is now isolated and facing a very angry Israel by itself. And Israeli airstrikes destroyed most of the former Syrian government weapons storage sites so those weapons are not available to a terrorist-controlled successor Syrian government.

https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htwin/articles/202412210131.aspx#gsc.tab=0

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

No IAF airstrike targeting potential supplies for Hezbollah over the past few days.

IDF has stabilized its control of the former 1974 buffer zone and does not appear to be expanding it any further.

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

Israeli security forces continue to conduct operations to arrest terrorism suspects, in some cases with the support of the PA

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

A Houthi ballistic missile appears to have struck Tel Aviv, with emergency services responding to a fire within the city. The impact site is reportedly a playground between several high-rise apartment buildings in central Tel Aviv, with 3 minor injuries all from shrapnel.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

With everything else being relatively stable, the Houthi missile that got thru last night will definitely gain a lot of Israel’s attention. Israel has already stated their next steps will be to take down Houthi leadership, as well as smart targeting of govt assets and military facilities. IMHO, the Houthi’s feel that the distance that separates them from Israel will insulate them from the same levels of destruction seen in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria and that they will fight like the Saudi’s and US. That would be a deadly assumption given that Hamas and Hezbollah had similar thoughts on Israeli response and learned the hard way. Israel may well start a more sustained series of attacks to pound that message home. If the Saudi’s are smart, they would jump on the wagon as well. The US is too close to the presidential transition to get involved more than the current self defense operations.

Other than the Houthi, other fronts in the Israeli - Iran et al conflict appear to be stable and in favor of Israel.


Lebanon -

Low on the news radar screen is the continued simmering of a potential conflict between remnants of Hezbollah and other communities in Lebanon who’ve suffered under their oppressive rule for the past decades.


Saudi Arabia –

The Foreign Ministry expresses the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s condemnation of the incident that took place in a market in the city of Magdeburg in the Federal Republic of Germany in which a car plowed into crowds, resulting in the death and injury of a number of people. The Kingdom expresses its solidarity with the German people and the families of the victims.


Syria -

Northern Syria: The SDF and SNA continued to clash along the lines of control in Aleppo Province on December 20. The head of the SDF media center reported “fierce clashes” on the Qere Qozaq bridge, which spans the Euphrates River.

Southwest Syria: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continued to operate in villages in Daraa and Quneitra provinces. Geolocated footage showed the IDF in al Rafeed, Quneitra Governorate, for the first time on December 20.



1,322 posted on 12/21/2024 7:48:07 AM PST by Godzilla (“When tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty” - Thomas Jefferson)
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To: null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

In the final countdown to Christmas . . . .

Heads up. I’ll likely take a few days off from posting between now and new years.


Globalism / Great Reset –

The United Nations and World Health Organization are tightening the noose on free speech. While the UN uses treaties, WHO is deploying a “social listening” technique in Pacific island nations.

The European Union is creating a committee specifically to tackle online “disinformation.” In the UK, Ofcom is tightening the noose through the Online Safety Act and is leading the global push for online censorship as it chairs the Global Online Safety Regulators Network for a second year.

Meanwhile, corporate media in France is using the courts to enforce French censorship globally. And Spain is proposing a law to force social media influencers to issue public corrections for “misinformation.”

In the US it’s more of a mixed bag with some wins for freedom of speech and some worrying developments, such as the Kids Online Safety Act which some Senators are attempting to rush through before the current Congress expires.

https://expose-news.com/2024/12/21/the-week-in-censorship/

OBSERVATION - Remember back to the various WEF related conferences early in the year? The major theme was the spread of ‘misinformation’ and the need to censor it and replace it with their narrative. We are now seeing the combined efforts of WEF ‘compliant’ nations and entities towards that goal. This time, there are more legal/governmental structures to enforce the ‘narrative’ versus the generally covert efforts employed during the heart of the wuhan plandemic.

This is a flow against which Trump will have to remain vigilant which desires overall to stamp his policies and goals into the dirt.

***
Unconfirmed reports that Trump will pull the US out of the WHO within days of his return to the WH. This is in light of the effort of the WHO to establish a quasi-treaty pandemic control over the world and the US via an unconstitutional scheme.

This is one reason the globalists fear him. That giant sucking sound is all that money no longer coming in to support them and the more difficult task to bring the US under more globalist controls.


CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Nov 12, 2024

The House Select Committee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government uncovered censorship, FBI whistleblower retaliation, and politicization of the nation’s top law enforcement and intelligence agencies over its nearly two-year probe into federal agencies.

On Friday, the House subcommittee housed under Chairman Jim Jordan’s Judiciary Committee, released its 17,000-page final report touting these and other findings. The broad investigation, the subcommittee says, uncovered a “two-tiered system of government—one of favorable treatment for the politically-favored class, and one of intimidation and unfairness for the rest of American citizens.”

https://justthenews.com/government/congress/weaponization-committee-shed-light-censorship-fbi-abuses-and-lawfare-nearly-2

OBSERVATION - When the govt targets its citizens in this manner several things become apparent. First, the swamp has been exposed for using Stalist / Stasi methods to subjugate the citizenry. Second rides with the first - the gross abuse of the constitution and the specific protections of citizens therein. Finally, the heavy handedness and prosecutorial bias to forcefully silence opinions and movements contrary to the swamps narrative (which also echos that of the globalists).

***
(FO) A recent revolutionary anarchist blog post argued that protests and direct action demonstrations against fascists and corporations no longer work, and that anarchist should return to assassinating their enemies.

The post argues that continued assassinations of political enemies would send a message to the capitalist class that prominent members are not “untouchable.” The post described the current situation as a “precipice,” as anarchist readers are asked to consider their willingness to commit acts of armed violence if those acts lead to desired change.

In related, A popular revolutionary anarchist media outlet encouraged anarchists to focus their efforts on recruiting those disillusioned with political solutions to intractable problems like poor economic conditions and wealthy corporations, police violence, and environmental issues.

OBSERVATION - Forward Observer has been monitoring the far left for a while with reliable analysis (recommend you sign up for their daily reports). Their analysis is “Left wing anarchism has a long history of political assassination, and this blog post pushes its anarchist readers to consider their movement’s heritage.”.

This flows parallel to the recent assassination of the health care CEO and inference towards other CEOs. As I’ve noted before, these leftists have historically conducted attacks like this and the concern is that in the absence of broader support for 2020 style riots and actions, they may revert to this method, doable with fewer numbers of true believers.


Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

According to U.S. Central Command; a friendly-fire incident occurred earlier tonight over the Red Sea, with a U.S. Navy F/A-18F “Super Hornet” from the USS Harry S. Truman (CVN-75) being accidentally shot-down by the Ticonderoga-Class Guided-Missile Cruiser, USS Gettysburg (CG-64). Both pilots were able to safely eject and have since been rescued; with one of the pilots suffering minor injuries.

There is a likelihood that the shoot down occurred during a time frame when Houthi cruise missiles were being engaged. Still speculation.


POLITICAL FRONT –

The democrats are running around beating their chests claiming that the CR battle was won by them. In one way they did succeed in peeling back the cover of many so-called republican ‘conservatives’ as being deeply infected by the poisons of the swamp and suddenly being tone deaf to the demands of the nation. There is no way the 1500+ page monstrosity should have ever seen the light of day in the first place.

But in reality, the democrat ‘win’ only served to place the republican in congress on notice, we won’t be putting up with this nonsense any longer. The final concession of a single 100+ page bill (versus 1500) with very limited extras shows what the people with the help of their voices being amplified by “X” can do for starters.

This has shaped up the 2025 battle lines and in much the same manner that Senators got a taste of what their constituents thought about their refusals to support Trumps picks, the representatives got a taste of the same. When DOGE is fully engaged, budget battles will become epic. What is different this time around is that the battles will no longer be constrained by the liberal MSM forcing the ‘narrative’. “X” and Rumble for starters have shaken up the social media world so much that the MSM has lost a lot of credibility as well as viewer ship.


INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –

Trump on Saturday slammed what he called unfair fees for US ships passing through the Panama Canal and threatened to demand control of the waterway be returned to Washington.

Authorities in Panama did not immediately react to Trump’s post.

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/trump-panama-canal/2024/12/22/id/1192544/

OBSERVATION - Another holdover from Carter’s disastrous presidency. He single handedly set not only the US but the whole world up for many of the ills besetting us today.

This was basically a warning shot to the leftists in Central America and Panama in particular as I don’t see serious action until later in his term. He has a lot on his plate to deal with in his first year alone. But as seen in the immigration and even the CR, he is shaping policies even before inauguration.


Biden / Harris Watch –

A new report has uncovered that the White House deliberately concealed President Joe Biden’s cognitive decline throughout his entire presidency.
The Wall Street Journal reports that the administration took extensive steps to manage the president’s health concerns, from hiring a vocal coach to downplaying his cognitive struggles.

The report highlights an ongoing effort to hide Biden’s decline, which included appointing other officials to handle tasks typically overseen by the president, canceling meetings on his “bad days,” and even avoiding calls with other political leaders.

While aides worked to downplay the issue, Biden’s cognitive decline became more evident over time, especially after Special Counsel Robert Hur’s report last year, which detailed the president’s forgetfulness and frailty.

https://resistthemainstream.com/sinister-white-house-secret-exposed-as-americans-left-in-the-dark-report/

OBSERVATION - We knew he was feeble minded even during the 2020 campaign based on his ‘basement’ campaign. This report is beyond that. The allegations need serious investigation because if he was mentally incompetent throughout his term, then the decisions he reportedly “made” are potentially illegal and overturn able. Sadly, though congress may peal things back, I seriously doubt that anyone will be held accountable for covering for this senile so called president for the 4 years of chaos we’ve experienced.


Russia -

*****

Putin rumbling about using his MIRV MRBMs against Ukraine again and may well do so soon.


Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30s and rain and snow throughout much of the period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukraine’s Air Force reports on a Shahed drone attack overnight by Russia. Out of 103 launched, 52 were shot down by regular air defense and another 44 were suppressed by electronic warfare. One more flew back to Belarus.

Russian losses per 22/12/24 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.

+1820 men
+15 tanks
+29 APVs
+32 artillery systems
+3 AD systems

Overnight, Ukrainian drones attacked an oil depot in Oryol, Russia. Drones could be heard flying and explosions were reported right after. One of the tanks caught fire. Local authorities say the fire has already been put down.

Summary —

Continued high Russian casualties and little reported terrain captured. On a subjective level, it also seems that Russian attacks across the eastern front are down. One conclusion is that though few attacks, they are suffering even higher losses. Could well be the result of poor equipment and tactics being used by Russia. One example posted was Russian forces advancing to the front in unarmored civilian vehicles. Ukraine devastated the forces as they are very susceptible to FPV drones. See pervious post on increasing reliance on such vehicles by Russia.

Russia’s threats to use their MIRV missile are increasing, but I think that a lot of the ‘fear’ of its use has been lessened by after strike analysis. It is not the ‘Rods from god’ weapon much propaganda has been spread about. The submunitions of the warhead, if actually deployed as a bomb, could be serious but still much of an area weapon.

Russia’s use of this missile may well be limited to the small numbers at hand and hindered by sanctioned elements necessary for its key components - like much of the rest of the high tech weapons used by Russia.

Limited supply may cause putin to employ the weapon against Kyiv, Odesa or Lviv as a terror weapon.


ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Netanyahu not to visit the 80th remembrance of the liberation of Auschwitz due to ICC arrest threats.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

An Israeli Air Force investigation into a Houthi ballistic missile that evaded Israel’s aerial defense system and hit a residential area in Jaffa overnight Friday has found that an interceptor missile malfunction caused the failure.

The IAF probe into the Jaffa missile strike also ruled out the possibility that the Iranian-backed rebels had made changes to the missile’s trajectory and range.

The Israel Defense Forces’ initial assessment had suggested the missile might have employed a different type of rocket engine, designed for activation in space, Israel’s Channel 12 News reported on Saturday. This could have altered its trajectory, complicating detection and interception. Furthermore, investigators examined whether the Houthis had reduced the warhead size to increase fuel capacity, thereby extending the missile’s range.

https://www.israeltoday.co.il/read/iaf-houthi-missile-hit-on-jaffa-caused-by-interceptor-glitch/#google_vignette

***
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will reportedly not attend the 80th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz on International Holocaust Remembrance Day next month because of fear that Poland will honor a warrant to arrest him.

According to Polish outlet Rzeczpospolita, Israeli authorities haven’t contacted their Polish counterparts about attending the event, and officials in Warsaw believe the reason is related to Poland’s stance that it will adhere to the ICC’s arrest warrant for Netanyahu over possible war crimes in the Gaza war.

https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-56/

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

IDF continues to hit identified Hamas et al gatherings across Gaza.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

More IDF destruction of Hezbollah infrastructure in occupied areas of S Lebanon.

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

Continued Israeli security forces actions across the area.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

U.S. Central Command has announced that major strikes were carried out tonight against Houthi Command-and-Control Centers and missile storage facilities in Western Yemen; with the strikes involving both U.S. Air Force and Navy Assets, including several F/A-18E “Super Hornets” from Carrier Air Wing 1 aboard the USS Harry S. Truman (CVN-75) operating in the Red Sea.

During the operation, CENTCOM forces also shot down multiple Houthi one way attack uncrewed aerial vehicles (OWA UAV) and an anti-ship cruise missile (ASCM) over the Red Sea.

NOTE - See Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments above on friendly fire incident associated with the operation.

***
The Houthis are threatening to strike the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier. The Truman is currently operating in the Red Sea region.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Relative calm across Israel as the intensity of combat remains low to very low. The biggest issue now is the resurgent Houthi attacks. Israeli and even US/coalition strikes have caused some serious damage, like other terrorists in the region, Houthi’s have spread their assets out to prevent singular destruction of stockpiles from limited strikes. It is going to take a much more prolonged campaign to significantly damage their ballistic missile capabilities and anti-shipping efforts that first believed. IMHO, again, I think that the Houthi’s are a bit over confident that they can ride out this campaign because of the lack of will to conduct such an extended campaign. Additionally, they likely have further diversified their storage locations to thwart future attacks. With the successful penetration of a missile a few days ago, they are further encouraged to keep their attacks up, maybe even increase them.

OTOH, Iran is incapable of supporting them as they were even a year ago. So Houthi operations can be expected to suffer a lot of degradation military should a serious air campaign be launched against it. Israel also has shown that they are willing to hit the Houthis economically and dry that source of power away. Should Israel get the leads on leadership hideouts, one can expect targeting on that level.

Because of the continued threat to Red Sea shipping and associated US interests, the arrival of Trump to the WH may suddenly swing the balance of power against them. If done in coordination with Israel (better likelihood than under biden), the US with its heavy bombers and BIG bombs could place a significant dent in Houthi capabilities. It may not stop them entirely, since radicalized islamic jihadists would not roll over so quickly until dead, they would attempt to continue. This in turn could expose the leadership to a greater threat.

Final note on the Houthi’s. They renewed their threats to take out a US aircraft carrier. Their hope would be to saturate the ADA capabilities of escort ships and get at least one missile thru.


Syria -

A high-level Saudi delegation arrives at the People’s Palace in Damascus and meets with Ahmed Al-Sharaa.

OBSERVATION - In spite of its radical islamic past, the leaders of Syria are putting up a very moderate front to the rest of the arab world. In part because they displayed STRENGTH against Iran and Russia (key component of regional geopolitics) as well as indicating that they wont use that strength against these arab nations.

***
IDF continues to make contacts with local leaders in the occupied buffer zone.


Turkey –

Turkey continues to attack Kurdish based forces in N Syria. They have not committed the reported large forces being set up just north of the Syrian border.


Misc of Note –

Drones, drones, drones . . . . again!

The Federal Aviation Administration has expanded its temporary flight restrictions for drones to include parts of New York state, marking an unprecedented regional-scale restriction of civilian drone operations in response to ongoing reports of unexplained aerial activity. The extension follows an earlier ban covering 22 New Jersey communities, reports The Guardian.

The new restrictions encompass sections of Brooklyn and Queens, as well as multiple Long Island communities, specifically targeting areas around 30 critical infrastructure sites, primarily electrical power stations. Governor Kathy Hochul characterized the measure as “purely precautionary,” emphasizing the absence of specific threats to these facilities.

The technical characteristics reported by witnesses – including extended flight times and advanced maneuverability – raise questions about the nature of the observed aircraft. These descriptions appear inconsistent with typical consumer drone capabilities, particularly regarding battery life limitations and speed parameters common to civilian platforms.

https://dronexl.co/2024/12/20/faa-drone-flight-restrictions-ny-nj-region/

OBSERVATION - We use drones in my SAR unit, and the FAA restrictions on use are already strict - even for first responders.

Flight ‘restrictions’ sound nice on headlines and from govt mouthpieces, but that will only apply to those legally operating them. Potential hostile foreign agents and care free ‘hobbyists’ will by and large ignore these restrictions. Until these drones start being taken down and their operators tracked down will these ‘restrictions’ have any teeth. So far, not a single report of a valid downing of any of these drones have occurred. Further, officials have been both reluctant and unable to even try.

The reports of exceptional “technical characteristics” is hard to judge, particularly by untrained observers who may never seen the maneuverability of drones before. That said, there are some reports that push thru the static that suggest some credibility to them as well. The technology of drones has accelerated since the adaptation to war by Ukraine and has caused a lot of out of the box thinking by many on modifications and uses. Both hostile agents and zealous ‘hobbyists’ have the capability to apply this growing knowledge and technology to create advanced drones.

Again, until we start downing some of these things, we won’t even be able to start to understand what is going on.


1,323 posted on 12/22/2024 7:30:54 AM PST by Godzilla (“When tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty” - Thomas Jefferson)
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To: Godzilla
Unconfirmed reports that Trump will pull the US out of the WHO within days of his return to the WH. ... one reason the globalists fear him. That giant sucking sound is all that money no longer coming in to support them...

Trump will either keep them in line or pull us out. It's going to be a great four years.

-----------------------------

This flows parallel to the recent assassination of the health care CEO and inference towards other CEOs. As I’ve noted before, these leftists have historically conducted attacks like this...

Just like good people work together - bad people also work together. Anarchists/commies/cartels/sexual weirdos/wokesters/progressives/white liberal global 'elites' - same team.

1,324 posted on 12/22/2024 11:08:26 AM PST by GOPJ (https://files.catbox.moe/rwi6a2.jpeg //files.catbox.moe/14hch9.jpg <img src="[image url]">)
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To: Godzilla

Wishing you and yours a Blessed Christmas and a very happy, healthy and prosperous .2025


1,325 posted on 12/22/2024 10:16:42 PM PST by Silentgypsy (In my defense, I was left unsupervised.)
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To: null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

I’ll probably not post tomorrow or Christmas. Expect a big one after christmas. Plus I’m setting up for the TM 2025 edition - probably use parts of those days to get it accomplished for Jan 1.

Should something break, I’ll be on it though.


Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Oct 20, 2024
Hanukkah: Dec 26 - Jan 1
***
Hanukkah is fast approaching. I expect violence at celebrations this year given the violence seen in Europe over the past month and the sudden shifts in power in the middle east.
Be situationally aware as even Christian events are at a risk.


Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Dec 5, 2024

Stories on how Christmas sales are going have been pretty scarce. What I have seen suggests that spending has not increased if at all by very much - a flat Christmas. This due to loss of spending power due to inflation. Looking for further information.


POLITICAL FRONT –

Now that the CR drama has been kicked down the road three months, DC has calmed considerably. Congress critters headed home for the holidays.


INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –

Trump’s threat to retake control of the Panama canal is not a far fetched as one might think. The agreement that transferred control to Panama has a clause in it that should it not be able to operate is properly / have difficulties, the US can regain control.

Now he’s talking about buying Greenland?


Biden / Harris Watch –

More and more reports on how staff hid biden’s collapse of mental facilities essentially from day one of his term. In a real, just world, all his decisions could and should be evaluated to see if he had the mental capability to make the decisions to begin with. Sadly, those days are long gone and apart from sensational stories and congressional committees, nothing will be done.


Illegal Immigration –

President Joe Biden’s administration deported about 390,000 fewer illegal aliens over the last four years than President Donald Trump’s administration did in his first term, new Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) data reveals.

From Fiscal Year 2021 through Fiscal Year 2024, the Biden administration deported 545,252 illegal aliens from the United States — a fraction of the estimated 8 million migrants the administration is estimated to have welcomed over the same period.

At the same time it has reduced deportations, the Biden administration has overseen the largest wave of illegal immigration to the United States in American history, with more than 10 million migrants having shown up at the nation’s border over the last four years.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/12/21/biden-legacy-390000-fewer-illegals-deported-u-s-than-under-trump/

NOTE - one of those illegals biden refused to deport burned a woman alive on a NY subway yesterday. Jan 20 can’t come soon enough.


China –

The PRC announced that it “allowed” a Philippine resupply mission to the Sierra Madre in Second Thomas Shoal. The PRC’s rhetoric likely aims to bolster the credibility of its claims to sovereignty over the territory.


North/South Korea –

North Korea is ramping up its weapons deliveries to Russia, according to the WSJ. Thousands of containers filled with ammunition, including 122mm and 152mm shells, Hwasong-11 missiles, and advanced weapons like 170mm Koksan howitzers and 240mm MLRS, have been shipped by rail and sea. Train traffic at the Tumangan-Hasan border crossing has tripled this year, reaching record levels.

Around 200 factories in North Korea are running at full capacity to produce ammunition for Russia, with Pyongyang receiving oil and cash in return. Satellite imagery shows rapid expansion of missile production facilities, including those for the Hwasong-11. So far, over 5 million artillery shells and more than 100 missiles have been sent to Russia

https://www.wsj.com/world/russia-north-korea-weapons-shipment-676d7f52


Phillipines –

The Philippines ratified its Reciprocal Access Agreement with Japan on December 16 in the latest act of military cooperation between the two states amid increasing pressure from the PRC.


Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20 -30s with widely scattered rain and snow.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

The Ukrainian Air Force reports on a Shahed drone attack overnight. Out of 72 Shaheds launched, 47 were shot down by regular air defense. Another 25 were supressed by electronic warfare. In Khmelnytskyi and Kyiv regions, private businesses and citizens’ homes were damaged.

Russian losses per 23/12/24 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.

+1990 men
+6 tanks
+15 APVs
+29 artillery systems

Zaporizhzhia Axis -

Continued rumbling of a Russian offensive into the region using 4000 airborne/special ops troops to attempt to gain potential bridge heads for follow on attacks.

Summary —

In a broad manner, reported contacts / attacks across the eastern fronts are down, yet Russia casualties remain very much on the high side again. Over 1800 yesterday. This is becoming the new average which as I pointed out in previous posts, is running far higher than the 1000-1200 /day seen this past summer. Ukraine reports that over the past weeks Russia has returned more to the ‘meat attacks’ of throwing a lot of men at an objective over a prolonged period resulting in heavy losses for a minimal terrain gain. These attacks are being picked up earlier and earlier by Ukraine’s recon drones and decimated early, but still the numbers press on.

Continued reports of heavy N Korean casualties. The most recent numbers indicate that thousands have been killed/wounded. This is out of a force of around 10K believed to have been committed. Though there has been talk of NK sending more troops, very little info indicates that it has happened. Increased munitions production seems to be what they and the Russians are pressing for. With this is probably greater quality control - with more Russian inspectors than with the original shipments. Those shipments reflected poor quality and storage control and reportedly cost a lot of Russian lives due to mis fires.

The ‘long’ war has been relatively quiet of late. Standard (now) 60 - 90 Shahed drones to be dealt with nightly and a few Ukraine drone efforts. Likely lowered due to winter weather / storm conditions. Drones are relatively light weight and don’t like storms very well.


ISRAEL –

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Hamas groupings being identified and taken out across Gaza, but intensity of fighting very light.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

IDF destroyed more Hezbollah underground facilities

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

Continued Israeli security force raids to arrest terror suspects

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urged Israelis on Sunday to be “patient” as Jerusalem prepares to respond forcefully to attacks by Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi terrorists.

“We will take forceful, determined and sophisticated action,” the prime minister vowed after a Houthi ballistic missile evaded the Israel Defense Forces’ aerial defense systems and hit a playground in Tel Aviv’s Jaffa quarter overnight Friday, lightly wounding 16 people.

“Even if it takes time, the result will be the same—as it has been with the other terrorist arms,” he said, in reference to previous IDF operations against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

“Just as we have acted forcefully against the terror arms of Iran’s axis of evil, so too will we act against the Houthis,” Netanyahu said. “However, in this case, we are not acting alone. Like us, the U.S. and other countries see the Houthis not only as a threat to international maritime navigation, but to the international order as well.

“what I ask of you, citizens of Israel, is to be patient, to continue showing the same resilience that you have shown up until now, and to strictly follow the [IDF] Home Front Command directives,” he said.

https://www.jns.org/netanyahu-appeals-for-patience-as-idf-prepares-to-hit-houthis-hard/

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Gaza and Lebanon are very quiet, giving Israel the break necessary to focus on the Houthi and Iran. Two different thought coming out on how Israel should handle the situation.

One thought is to do unto the Houthi’s as they have done to Hamas and Hezbollah - wage a sustained assault on the whole of the Houthi empire - military, economic and social. The Houthi are smart enough not to put all their eggs in one basket. They also benefit from the distance which prevents rapid Israeli targeting like they had against Hamas and Hezbollah. There IAF could quickly react to intelligence within minutes. Houthi controlled Yemen is some 2000 KM from Israel - several hours of travel time in which a missile TEL can set up, fire and scoot (hide) before Israeli planes can get it.

Houthi also don’t have the missile production base like Iran does, so internal production limited to simpler systems while relying on Iran for more sophisticated systems like ballistic missiles. Then Houthi, though Iranian proxies, were not an imminent threat like Iran, so the penetration of the society and military by Mossad may not be as deep and will take time to develop intelligence identifying key targets to strike.

The second thought is go for the puppet master - Iran. The Houthi threat currently consists of the ability to throw a missile or two and a few drones at Israel every day. Iran OTOH can and has fired hundreds of missiles in a barrage. Hit the head, and the support to the minions like Houthi’s will dry up as well. A former Mossad chief has been interviewed recently supporting the Iranian attack option.

Israel is full of surprises and the current rhetoric at least suggests that they are focusing on the Houthi first. The demonstrated successful meticulous planning of the military and intelligence branches in the past is being brought to bear towards Yemen. Just like it took several weeks for the attack plan against Iran, it takes time to ready a plan here. Israel has hit the low hanging fruit, now I expect they are going for more substantial, though harder to get to targets.


Iran –

Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei urges Syrian youth to rise against the new leadership, calling for resistance.


Iraq -

Iran-backed militias in Iraq have reached an agreement with the Iraqi government to stop attacks on Israel and remain silent on the situation in Syria, reports the Hezbollah-affiliated Al-Akhbar outlet.
Seemingly in exchange, the Iraqi government will not cave to international pressure to disarm and disband the Iranian proxies operating in Iraq.


Syria -

Considerable fighting continues in the north between Kurdish SDF and Turkish backed SNA.

***
Israeli Broadcasting Authority: Israel is concerned about Türkiye’s intention to launch a large-scale military operation against the SDF in northern Syria

***
Unconfirmed reports from the Syrian Center for Human Rights that a convoy of US military reinforcements arrived in the area of ​​the Kurdish city of Kobani in northern Syria, near the border with Turkey. In addition, reinforcements were reported to have arrived via US cargo planes to the Harb al-Jir base in eastern Syria - amid the escalation of fighting between pro-Turkish forces and the Kurdish SDF forces.

***
Russia is sending one of its newest and largest landing ships, the Ivan Gren-class RFS Ivan Gren, to assist the maritime evacuation from Syria.
h/t jr_amon_ceuta_shipspotting on insta for spotting the vessel in the Strait of Gibraltar.



1,326 posted on 12/23/2024 5:41:39 AM PST by Godzilla (“When tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty” - Thomas Jefferson)
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To: Godzilla
More and more reports on how staff hid biden’s collapse of mental facilities essentially from day one of his term. In a real, just world, all his decisions could and should be evaluated to see if he had the mental capability to make the decisions to begin with.

I want to know WHO wrote all of Biden's executive orders on day one of Biden's presidency... You know the orders that undid everything Trump had done on the border... and ended the Keystone pipeline etc. etc. etc...

1,327 posted on 12/23/2024 5:52:00 AM PST by GOPJ (https://files.catbox.moe/rwi6a2.jpeg //files.catbox.moe/14hch9.jpg <img src="[image url]">)
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To: Godzilla

>Now he’s talking about buying Greenland?

There was some talk on that towards the end of Trump45.


1,328 posted on 12/23/2024 6:08:12 AM PST by FreedomPoster (Islam delenda est)
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To: Godzilla

Thanks Godzilla


1,329 posted on 12/23/2024 7:07:32 AM PST by PGalt (Past Peak Civilization?)
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To: Godzilla

Have a great Christmas.


1,330 posted on 12/23/2024 8:56:15 AM PST by metmom (He who testifies to these things says, “Surely I am coming soon." Amen. Come, Lord Jesus)
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To: Godzilla

Thank you for all the work you put into your reports.

Have a Merry Christmas!


1,331 posted on 12/23/2024 9:49:11 AM PST by Rusty0604 (W looking for new conspiracy theories as all the old ones have come true)
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To: null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

Merry Christmas to all out there.

Be back tomorrow.


1,332 posted on 12/25/2024 3:38:54 AM PST by Godzilla (“When tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty” - Thomas Jefferson)
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To: Godzilla

Merry Christmas !!!!!


1,333 posted on 12/25/2024 3:39:57 AM PST by no-to-illegals (The enemy has US surrounded. May God have mercy on them.)
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To: null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

1,334 posted on 12/25/2024 3:44:15 AM PST by Godzilla (“When tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty” - Thomas Jefferson)
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To: Godzilla

Merry Christmas bro!


1,335 posted on 12/25/2024 5:08:00 AM PST by Lazamataz (The BEST birthday present I ever got WAS DONALD TRUMP WINNING IN 2024!!!)
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To: Godzilla

Merry Christmas!
🙏❤️


1,336 posted on 12/25/2024 5:11:08 AM PST by PGalt (Past Peak Civilization?)
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To: Godzilla

Thanks and Merry Christmas to you Godzilla. Great photo.


1,337 posted on 12/25/2024 6:48:30 AM PST by Oorang (Politicians:-a feeble band of lowly reptiles who shun the light and who lurk in their own dens. )
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To: Godzilla

Nothing captures the true meaning of Christmas quite like Godzilla Santa!

Merry Christmas. :)


1,338 posted on 12/25/2024 8:40:55 AM PST by Diana in Wisconsin (I don't have, 'Hobbies.' I'm developing a robust Post-Apocalyptic skill set.)
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To: Godzilla

🎄C H R I S T M A S G I F T🎄


1,339 posted on 12/25/2024 8:44:11 AM PST by lyby ("Mathematics is the language with which God has written the universe." ~ Galileo Galilei)
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To: Godzilla

Merry Christmas and thank you for all that you do!


1,340 posted on 12/25/2024 11:05:57 AM PST by Silentgypsy (In my defense, I was left unsupervised.)
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