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I’ll probably not post tomorrow or Christmas. Expect a big one after christmas. Plus I’m setting up for the TM 2025 edition - probably use parts of those days to get it accomplished for Jan 1.

Should something break, I’ll be on it though.

Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Oct 20, 2024
Hanukkah: Dec 26 - Jan 1
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Hanukkah is fast approaching. I expect violence at celebrations this year given the violence seen in Europe over the past month and the sudden shifts in power in the middle east.
Be situationally aware as even Christian events are at a risk.

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Dec 5, 2024

Stories on how Christmas sales are going have been pretty scarce. What I have seen suggests that spending has not increased if at all by very much - a flat Christmas. This due to loss of spending power due to inflation. Looking for further information.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Now that the CR drama has been kicked down the road three months, DC has calmed considerably. Congress critters headed home for the holidays.

INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –

Trump’s threat to retake control of the Panama canal is not a far fetched as one might think. The agreement that transferred control to Panama has a clause in it that should it not be able to operate is properly / have difficulties, the US can regain control.

Now he’s talking about buying Greenland?

Biden / Harris Watch –

More and more reports on how staff hid biden’s collapse of mental facilities essentially from day one of his term. In a real, just world, all his decisions could and should be evaluated to see if he had the mental capability to make the decisions to begin with. Sadly, those days are long gone and apart from sensational stories and congressional committees, nothing will be done.

Illegal Immigration –

President Joe Biden’s administration deported about 390,000 fewer illegal aliens over the last four years than President Donald Trump’s administration did in his first term, new Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) data reveals.

From Fiscal Year 2021 through Fiscal Year 2024, the Biden administration deported 545,252 illegal aliens from the United States — a fraction of the estimated 8 million migrants the administration is estimated to have welcomed over the same period.

At the same time it has reduced deportations, the Biden administration has overseen the largest wave of illegal immigration to the United States in American history, with more than 10 million migrants having shown up at the nation’s border over the last four years.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/12/21/biden-legacy-390000-fewer-illegals-deported-u-s-than-under-trump/

NOTE - one of those illegals biden refused to deport burned a woman alive on a NY subway yesterday. Jan 20 can’t come soon enough.

China –

The PRC announced that it “allowed” a Philippine resupply mission to the Sierra Madre in Second Thomas Shoal. The PRC’s rhetoric likely aims to bolster the credibility of its claims to sovereignty over the territory.

North/South Korea –

North Korea is ramping up its weapons deliveries to Russia, according to the WSJ. Thousands of containers filled with ammunition, including 122mm and 152mm shells, Hwasong-11 missiles, and advanced weapons like 170mm Koksan howitzers and 240mm MLRS, have been shipped by rail and sea. Train traffic at the Tumangan-Hasan border crossing has tripled this year, reaching record levels.

Around 200 factories in North Korea are running at full capacity to produce ammunition for Russia, with Pyongyang receiving oil and cash in return. Satellite imagery shows rapid expansion of missile production facilities, including those for the Hwasong-11. So far, over 5 million artillery shells and more than 100 missiles have been sent to Russia

https://www.wsj.com/world/russia-north-korea-weapons-shipment-676d7f52

Phillipines –

The Philippines ratified its Reciprocal Access Agreement with Japan on December 16 in the latest act of military cooperation between the two states amid increasing pressure from the PRC.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20 -30s with widely scattered rain and snow.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

The Ukrainian Air Force reports on a Shahed drone attack overnight. Out of 72 Shaheds launched, 47 were shot down by regular air defense. Another 25 were supressed by electronic warfare. In Khmelnytskyi and Kyiv regions, private businesses and citizens’ homes were damaged.

Russian losses per 23/12/24 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.

+1990 men
+6 tanks
+15 APVs
+29 artillery systems

Zaporizhzhia Axis -

Continued rumbling of a Russian offensive into the region using 4000 airborne/special ops troops to attempt to gain potential bridge heads for follow on attacks.

Summary —

In a broad manner, reported contacts / attacks across the eastern fronts are down, yet Russia casualties remain very much on the high side again. Over 1800 yesterday. This is becoming the new average which as I pointed out in previous posts, is running far higher than the 1000-1200 /day seen this past summer. Ukraine reports that over the past weeks Russia has returned more to the ‘meat attacks’ of throwing a lot of men at an objective over a prolonged period resulting in heavy losses for a minimal terrain gain. These attacks are being picked up earlier and earlier by Ukraine’s recon drones and decimated early, but still the numbers press on.

Continued reports of heavy N Korean casualties. The most recent numbers indicate that thousands have been killed/wounded. This is out of a force of around 10K believed to have been committed. Though there has been talk of NK sending more troops, very little info indicates that it has happened. Increased munitions production seems to be what they and the Russians are pressing for. With this is probably greater quality control - with more Russian inspectors than with the original shipments. Those shipments reflected poor quality and storage control and reportedly cost a lot of Russian lives due to mis fires.

The ‘long’ war has been relatively quiet of late. Standard (now) 60 - 90 Shahed drones to be dealt with nightly and a few Ukraine drone efforts. Likely lowered due to winter weather / storm conditions. Drones are relatively light weight and don’t like storms very well.

ISRAEL –

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Hamas groupings being identified and taken out across Gaza, but intensity of fighting very light.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

IDF destroyed more Hezbollah underground facilities

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

Continued Israeli security force raids to arrest terror suspects

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urged Israelis on Sunday to be “patient” as Jerusalem prepares to respond forcefully to attacks by Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi terrorists.

“We will take forceful, determined and sophisticated action,” the prime minister vowed after a Houthi ballistic missile evaded the Israel Defense Forces’ aerial defense systems and hit a playground in Tel Aviv’s Jaffa quarter overnight Friday, lightly wounding 16 people.

“Even if it takes time, the result will be the same—as it has been with the other terrorist arms,” he said, in reference to previous IDF operations against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

“Just as we have acted forcefully against the terror arms of Iran’s axis of evil, so too will we act against the Houthis,” Netanyahu said. “However, in this case, we are not acting alone. Like us, the U.S. and other countries see the Houthis not only as a threat to international maritime navigation, but to the international order as well.

“what I ask of you, citizens of Israel, is to be patient, to continue showing the same resilience that you have shown up until now, and to strictly follow the [IDF] Home Front Command directives,” he said.

https://www.jns.org/netanyahu-appeals-for-patience-as-idf-prepares-to-hit-houthis-hard/

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Gaza and Lebanon are very quiet, giving Israel the break necessary to focus on the Houthi and Iran. Two different thought coming out on how Israel should handle the situation.

One thought is to do unto the Houthi’s as they have done to Hamas and Hezbollah - wage a sustained assault on the whole of the Houthi empire - military, economic and social. The Houthi are smart enough not to put all their eggs in one basket. They also benefit from the distance which prevents rapid Israeli targeting like they had against Hamas and Hezbollah. There IAF could quickly react to intelligence within minutes. Houthi controlled Yemen is some 2000 KM from Israel - several hours of travel time in which a missile TEL can set up, fire and scoot (hide) before Israeli planes can get it.

Houthi also don’t have the missile production base like Iran does, so internal production limited to simpler systems while relying on Iran for more sophisticated systems like ballistic missiles. Then Houthi, though Iranian proxies, were not an imminent threat like Iran, so the penetration of the society and military by Mossad may not be as deep and will take time to develop intelligence identifying key targets to strike.

The second thought is go for the puppet master - Iran. The Houthi threat currently consists of the ability to throw a missile or two and a few drones at Israel every day. Iran OTOH can and has fired hundreds of missiles in a barrage. Hit the head, and the support to the minions like Houthi’s will dry up as well. A former Mossad chief has been interviewed recently supporting the Iranian attack option.

Israel is full of surprises and the current rhetoric at least suggests that they are focusing on the Houthi first. The demonstrated successful meticulous planning of the military and intelligence branches in the past is being brought to bear towards Yemen. Just like it took several weeks for the attack plan against Iran, it takes time to ready a plan here. Israel has hit the low hanging fruit, now I expect they are going for more substantial, though harder to get to targets.

Iran –

Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei urges Syrian youth to rise against the new leadership, calling for resistance.

Iraq -

Iran-backed militias in Iraq have reached an agreement with the Iraqi government to stop attacks on Israel and remain silent on the situation in Syria, reports the Hezbollah-affiliated Al-Akhbar outlet.
Seemingly in exchange, the Iraqi government will not cave to international pressure to disarm and disband the Iranian proxies operating in Iraq.

Syria -

Considerable fighting continues in the north between Kurdish SDF and Turkish backed SNA.

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Israeli Broadcasting Authority: Israel is concerned about Türkiye’s intention to launch a large-scale military operation against the SDF in northern Syria

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Unconfirmed reports from the Syrian Center for Human Rights that a convoy of US military reinforcements arrived in the area of the Kurdish city of Kobani in northern Syria, near the border with Turkey. In addition, reinforcements were reported to have arrived via US cargo planes to the Harb al-Jir base in eastern Syria - amid the escalation of fighting between pro-Turkish forces and the Kurdish SDF forces.

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Russia is sending one of its newest and largest landing ships, the Ivan Gren-class RFS Ivan Gren, to assist the maritime evacuation from Syria.
h/t jr_amon_ceuta_shipspotting on insta for spotting the vessel in the Strait of Gibraltar.