Threat Matrix 2024

Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 23nd year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.

2023 has been “historic”: Continued inflation Record illegal immigration Record crime Record housing prices and Unprecedented prime lending rate increases. Push to globalize the economy, food production and energy

- 2024 is a political year with all the deep divisions and turmoils that brings. - Political assassinations - The potential for a serious and deep recession - CBDC stripping Americans of their free use of money - Race and other ethnic wars in the US as illegals mark out territory - Continued massive increase in crime - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - - Continued combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Potential Chinese move on Taiwan – breaking analysis - Israel and Hezbollah/Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems. . And this is just a short list.

It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.

For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.

How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.

Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.

My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose and I don’t expect this to let up, only increase as the year progresses.

Will we even make it to the 2024 elections without things flying apart? Will the democrats / leftist manage a way to steal the election? Will the US find itself in the early stages of a civil war / national split up? The year promises to be very bumpy, so buckle up and prepare yourselves for what is to come.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Oct 20, 2024

The Bucks County McDonald received threatening phone calls and social media messages following Trump’s visit, Jim Worthington, the leader of Pennsylvania’s delegation at the Republican National Convention and one of the key organizers of the Trump McDonald’s visit, told the DCNF. As a precaution to protect his employees, the franchise’s owner Derek Giacomantonio has retained the private security force he’d hired in the lead up to the event, said Worthington, who was communicating on behalf of Giacomantonio.

Despite some threats, the vast majority of the community has reportedly been supportive, with Worthington telling the DCNF, “the community is really embracing it, and a lot of people have come in here since Sunday just to patronize the restaurant,” adding that, “a lot of people anticipated [a boycott] would happen, because that is typical for some Democratic supporters to do, but [the business] hasn’t been hurt.”

https://dailycaller.com/2024/10/23/scoop-swing-state-mcdonalds-threatened-after-trump-visit-owner-retains-private-security/

OBSERVATION - This is the Mickey Ds that trump was at. Take these threats and project them onto the rest of the country in the event of a trump win at the polls. The left continues to be primed to react violently - see harris’ recent comments equating trump to hitler - again. Should threats become reality, the left could awaken the silent elements of the right who just want to live their lives. The resultant push back could create a different level of political violence.
NOTE - Threats have also been made to citizens in Pennsylvania displaying pro-Trump materials - reported in previous posts.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The House of Representatives has made a significant decision that could alter the landscape of military service in America. They’ve passed an updated version of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) which includes a provision for automatic draft registration for men. This move raises critical questions about equality and the responsibilities of citizenship.

In a pivotal shift, the Senate Armed Services Committee has also backed a version of the NDAA that would extend automatic registration to women. If enacted, this legislation would require women to register for the Selective Service, placing them on the same footing as their male counterparts. This move has ignited a heated debate about gender equality and the role of women in the armed forces.

POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th

**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****

****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****

***
Warning for discernment over the next couple weeks. PR and propaganda will be spinning intensely with reports/stories of this or that in each campaign. Voter influencing and demoralizing are top of the list. Key polls to watch are state level with secondary to national polls. Common sense says they are skewed to influence as well, but are generally being forced to shift to more accurately depict what people think. Further great caution on using the betting “polls” as absolutes.

***
Election officials in Maricopa County, Arizona, announced that it will likely take 10-13 days to tabulate all the ballots cast in the upcoming presidential election next month.

“We do expect that it will take between 10 and 13 days to complete tabulation of all of the ballots that come in, but we ask for the community’s patience,” Deputy Elections Director Jennifer Liewer said, according to 12News, the local NBC affiliate.

“We want to make sure that this is a secure process, but we also want to make sure that it is an accurate process,” she continued.

A little over two million people in Maricopa County are expected to vote in the presidential election in two weeks and over 400,000 people have already voted early.

https://www.americanpartisan.org/2024/10/officials-in-maricopa-county-say-it-will-take-10-to-13-days-to-count-ballots-for-upcoming-election/

OBSERVATION - Many are saying that this is stinking to high heaven and fraught with built in vote fraud. There is absolutely no reason for such a delay in today’s modern world.

***
The Atlantic magazine (Jeffrey Goldberg - author) has ramped up its diatribes against trump by an order of magnitude this week, publishing lies that are almost instantly rebutted by the truth. The latest is a lie is trump’s help for a family of a fallen service member. The sister of the soldier immediately called BS to it.
This is a desperate Hail Mary attempt, an “October Surprise,” intended to change the course of the election .

Biden / Harris Watch –

If harris was hoping to gain ground on the CNN town hall hosted by Anderson Cooper, she better recheck her numbers again. At best pundits considered her presentation lack luster, and with even Anderson getting frustrated with her dodging the big questions many see it as another dumpster fire.

Axelrod couldn’t even defend her performance on CNN tonight by Kamala Harris. ‘When you’ve lost David Axelrod …’

Axelrod on Kamala Harris’ town hall performance:

“When she doesn’t want to answer a question, her habit is to kind of go to word salad city”

“She would acknowledge no concerns about any of the administration’s policies and that’s a mistake”

“You do want to relate to the people in front of you. She didn’t do a lot of that. She didn’t ask them questions. She didn’t address them particularly. She was giving set pieces too much.”

https://x.com/RealSaavedra/status/1849305374299406710

Harris actually paused her campaign for TWO DAYS to ‘prepare’ for that appearance.

Cyber attacks/warfare – Moderate ALERT as of Oct 20, 2024

Hackers linked to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards are preparing for “more direct influence operations” as the US election nears, according to Microsoft. The hacking group is called Cotton Sandstorm by Microsoft, which says they are actively scouting election-related websites.

Illegal Immigration –

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has identified hundreds of migrants in the United States who may be connected to an international crime syndicate originating from Venezuela, according to NBC News.
DHS officials suspect more than 600 foreign nationals living in the U.S. have ties to Tren de Aragua, according to data obtained by NBC News. Around 100 of the 600 migrants that DHS has identified as “subjects of interest” are confirmed members of the international gang, while others could be witnesses, victims or are members themselves.

https://dailycaller.com/2024/10/23/dhs-identifies-600-suspected-tren-de-aragua/

OBSERVATION - Why are they all not in jail and being deported out of the country?

RELATED - Discussions appearing on the interwebs that Tren de Aragua and MS-13 may soon be facing off for control of some areas of the US.

China –

China’s wealthiest citizens are resorting to dubiously legal methods to get their money out of the country as economic turmoil and a failing property market loom over the nation, according to the Wall Street Journal Wednesday.

The richest in the country are using various methods to circumvent the $50,000 foreign exchange limit, such as buying cryptocurrency, paintings or overpaying for imports among other methods, according to the WSJ. From the last half of 2023 to June this year, over $250 billion in assets has left the country, according to a WSJ analysis of Census and Economic Information Center data.

https://thelibertydaily.com/chinas-richest-are-desperate-get-their-fortunes-country/

OBSERVATION - Chinese news and govt officials work hard to keep the lid on China’s economic woes, but things keep leaking out. The Evergrande and associated property crashes along with the very sluggish manufacturing sector are a thorn in Xi’s efforts to ramp up the country for eventual war over Taiwan with the west. A lot of national resources are being expended trying to hold the economy together.

***
China sailed the Liaoning Carrier Strike Group through the Taiwan Strait on Tuesday night, according to the Taiwanese Ministry of National Defense. This follows Chinese live fire drills at the northern mouth of the Strait on Tuesday morning and a U.S.-Canada Strait Transit on Sunday.

****
(FO) Taiwan continues to discuss preparations for a Chinese blockade of the island. The Defense Minister announced that the country’s has less than 14 days worth of natural gas stockpiled. The Minister expects to mitigate this by reactivating coal power plants, leaning on the much larger strategic coal stockpile, rationing, and increasing gas storage facilities.

OBSERVATION - The blockade scenario continues to be the most likely way that China will attempt to force the surrender of Taiwan.

North/South Korea –

President Yoon says South Korea could consider sending arms to Ukraine depending on North Korea-Russia military cooperation

Japan –

In addition to new frigates ordered in 2023, Japan has decided to also build a similar number of 4,800-ton New FFMs. Japan plans to build twelve new frigates in five years. Now Japan is also producing ten of the New FFMs as well.
Until 2023 Japan planned to build 24 new FFM Mogami class missile frigates. These were procured in two batches of twelve each. Japan currently has ten frigates. These 3,900-ton FFM ships are an example of successful innovation and speed in implementing new concepts. The New FFMs have similar capabilities as the Mogami’s but carry more missiles

https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htsurf/articles/20241024094.aspx#gsc.tab=0

OBSERVATION - Japan is taking its build up of naval forces very seriously and quickly in order to have an adequate deterrent against the growing Chinese naval presence in the region and the associated threats to Japanese islands being claimed by China.

Russia -

*****
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping have discussed the Ukraine war and other global issues at a meeting on the sidelines of the 16th annual BRICS Summit being held in the Russian city of Kaza, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has confirmed. Peskov hailed the bilateral meeting as “very open” and “constructive.”

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres calls on Russian President Putin for a “just peace” in Ukraine, during the BRICS summit in the Russian city of Kazan

Russian Personnel Issues –-

According to the Financial Times, Putin is betting that North Korean troops will help retake the Kursk region from Ukrainian control. Around 12,000 soldiers from North Korea will reportedly be sent to Russia for this purpose, aiming to reclaim territories held by Ukrainian forces since August.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 50s with scattered showers in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight, Russia attacked Ukraine with both missiles and drones.

Shot down:
0/2 Kh-22 cruise missiles
0/2 Kh-59 cruise missiles
40/50 Shahed drones
Another 7 Shahed drones were taken down by electronic warfare. Two drones returned to Russia. One drone is still within Ukraine.

Intense fighting being reported in the villages of Serebrianka and Mykolaivka in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region.

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Ukraine reports that heavy fighting has gripped towns on the approach to Pokrovsk, the next key logistical town in the Russian military’s westward push in Donetsk.

The situation in Selydove was worsened for Ukrainian troops. With a high possibility that the extent of Russia’s advance is deeper. Russians planted their flag close to the central part of Selydove, south of the Solona River. Although still marked as a gray zone, the area south of this location is high likely Russian controlled. This follows ongoing Russian attacks, mainly coming from the south and east.

Outlook —

Russia is pressing hard towards Pokrovsk, a key town that could help anchor its efforts in Donbas and inhibit Ukraine counter attacks. They have a limited window of opportunity.

Poland –

South Korea, Poland agree to bolster joint response against North Korea’s troop dispatch to Russia

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- IAF selectively targeted a building next to the Iranian embassy in Beirut where it was believed that Iranian and Hezbollah were working together to coordinate the drone and missile attacks on Israel.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Authorities in Tehran released a blood-splattered mural depicting photos of Israeli hostages abducted by Hamas on October 7 with the text “no hostage will be released” in Hebrew, Iran International and local media reported. The mural was reportedly put up in Tehran’s Palestine Square on Tuesday, according to Tehran Times.

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told his Israeli counterpart on Wednesday that Washington had concerns about strikes against the Lebanese armed forces while urging Israel to take steps to ensure the safety of the Lebanese army and the U.N. peacekeeping mission in Lebanon, the Pentagon said.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

IDF reports the apprehension overnight of 200 terrorists from the N Gaza strip area, in addition to the dozens reportedly killed.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Lebanese Christian Member of Parliament Nadim Gemayel:
Calls for the total disarming of Lebanon’s Hezbollah before elections are held in Lebanon

Reports of a targeted strike hitting the second floor of a supermarket building in Al-Janah, near the Iranian Embassy in Lebanon, just hours after the IDF spokesperson claimed Iranian advisors were stationed at the embassy aiding Hezbollah forces with missile and drone attacks on Israel.

Overnight, IAF struck 160 Hezbollah targets throughout Lebanon, with Beirut Hezbollah related sites particularly hard, many being ammo storage and manufacturing facilities.

The IDF said that Hezbollah launched at least 90 rockets from Lebanon into Israel over the past day.

IDF soldiers raided several underground bases belonging to Hezbollah’s special unit, the Radwan Forces, the military announced on Thursday. The bases were intended for use by the Radwan Forces as part of Hezbollah’s “Conquer the Galilee” plan.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

The Israeli Air Force carried out a raid a short while ago on the Orontes River Bridge in the town of Arjoun, Al-Qusayr countryside, Homs Governorate

Syria’s state-run SANA news agency, citing a military source, says a soldier was killed and seven others were wounded in Israeli airstrikes early this morning. The report says two sites were struck in the Kafr Sousa neighborhood of the capital Damascus, and another military site was hit in the Homs area. The strikes also caused “material damage,” SANA adds.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Initial reports of U.S. air strikes against Houthi sites in the area around Hodeida International Airport in Western Yemen.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

China’s Xi calls for ceasefire in Gaza, stop to ‘spread of war in Lebanon’ in address to BRICS leaders

Guterres: Israel’s targeting of UNIFIL forces is unacceptable and amounts to a war crime. An immediate ceasefire must be established in Lebanon, resolution 1701 must be implemented, and its sovereignty must be respected

Putin: Iran-Israel confrontation puts Middle East on brink of war

A senior member of Hamas, the Palestinian terrorist group that controls Gaza, Mousa Abu Marzouk has arrived in Moscow on a planned visit, Russian state-run news agency RIA Novosti reported on Wednesday, citing a diplomatic source. Hamas politburo member, Abu Marzouk, intends to hold a series of meetings with Russian officials, RIA said without providing any further details.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Operations against Hamas continue to degrade and eliminate much of the remaining forces in N Gaza.

In Lebanon, Israel continues to methodically advance into the southern areas, taking a lot of time to destroy in detail Hezbollah bunkers and other facilities in the border area. The IAF continues to hit major ammo related sites in and around Beirut, areas at the start of the war Hezbollah warned Israel not to touch. Hezbollah is only able to shoot off fewer and fewer rockets on a daily basis. This is a combination of poor coordination as well as a reflection of the decimation of Hezbollah’s rocket / missile stockpiles, now estimated to be less than one third of their initial levels.

Political ruptures are growing between Hezbollah and other, smaller groups that have been generally kept under thumb since the Lebanese civil war. With Hezbollah’s loss of combat capability and strategic reserves, these other parties are becoming bolder in their demands to minimize and exclude Hezbollah from its essential rulership of Lebanon.

Clock is ticking on Israel’s strike on Iran. At this stage, keeping Iran on edge for this long has an effect of overall lowering their readiness for an attack and may result in making mistakes and becoming complacent which an Israeli strike will take advantage of.

Lebanon -

Lebanon’s caretaker PM Mikati: Lebanon could deploy 8,000 additional troops in south as part of ceasefire agreement.

OBSERVATION - Combined with the demands for a demilitarized / disarmed Hezbollah, the Lebanese govt is becoming bolder.

Turkey –

Turkish Defense Minister announces bombing of 47 sites in “northern Iraq and Syria”

The Turkish air and artillery strikes on civilian infrastructure in Northern Syria continue. Since the early morning hours the Turkish military carried out airstrikes on: - Kobane city center; Bakery in Amude; Train station in the Assyrian/Christian neighbourhood in Qamishli; 3 airstrikes in Rmelan, one of the airstrikes targeted the electricity power station, and Rmelan is now without electricity and heavy artillery strikes on the rural areas of Al Shahba. Numbers of civilian casualties being reported.

OBSERVATIONS - Turkey’s attacks are clearly indiscriminate and reflect the hypocrisy of their stance towards Israel’s response to Hamas/Hezbollah’s terrorism.

Mexico -

Reports that immigrants are beginning to surge thru Mexico in an effort to make it into the US in light of uncertainty of the election.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Oct 20, 2024

MY OPINIONS AND OBSERVATIONS IN GENERAL

The harris campaign has returned to the Trump Is Hitler theme. James Carville calling democrats to arms should trump win. All this rhetoric can be seen as preparing the followers for and to increased violence after the election. At this stage it doesn’t matter who wins, as democrats are vowing retribution either way.

The biggest question I face as I wade my way through my news feeds/searches is - Will the democrats actually initiate violence after the election? My current assessment is that they are fully capable, having many resources that can be or already are radicalized. They retain power for a couple months after the election and are fully capable of initiating all kinds of mayhem.

Being capable and actually doing it are almost two different things. But this time around there are plenty of those in the party ready to call for open war, and many for all practical purposes have made that call.
Will cooler heads prevail - yes and no. Globalist forces operating within the deep state need to down grade the US in order to eliminate the greatest threat to their plans. They are isolated enough to cause trouble and stand back and watch it burn.

Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Oct 20, 2024

State dept ALERT. Worldwide Caution: Social media posts on various platforms are calling for demonstrations at U.S. and Israeli facilities on Friday, October 25, 2024. U.S. citizens should avoid demonstrations and exercise caution.

POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th

**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****

***
Pundits are surprised at the volume of early voting - particularly the turnout on the republican side of the house. Historically, democrats have had the advantage in early voting, but in many battle ground states this is not the case anymore. Since turnout like this has never been seen, analysts are hard pressed to make firm assessments or projections. What many are saying is that the republican turnout is foretelling good things for trump.

Biden / Harris Watch –

Yesterday harris went hard left and resumed the trump is hitler meme. How she did it is concerning. She made her statement with the US and VP flags behind her, outside of the WH. Essentially she was transmitting that the fed govt is making that charge and declaration, and not here campaign.

Russia -

*****

WSJ reveals that Russia has been providing targeting data to the Houthis for their attacks on ships in the Red Sea. Data was passed through members of Iran’s IRGC who are embedded with the Houthis

***
“No concessions or compromises on Ukraine,” says Putin.
“Any outcome must favor Russia, based on the realities on the battlefield. We’re not considering any concessions or trades,” he stated directly.

RUMINT-

Now a new report claims Russia gave the Yemeni rebel group targeting data in large measure to keep the U.S. entangled in the region and draw resources and attention away from Moscow’s grinding war in Ukraine.

The Houthis began attacking shipping in October of 2023 in support of Gaza and “eventually began using Russian satellite data as they expanded their strikes,” The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday. The publication cited “a person familiar with the matter and two European defense officials.”
The data “was passed through members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), who were embedded with the Houthis in Yemen,” one of the people told the Journal.

https://www.twz.com/news-features/russians-helped-houthis-target-international-shipping-report

OBSERVATIONS -
Due largely to the gross incompetence of blinker and biden, putin has successfully navigated around US and western responses to his war with Ukraine to drive things to favor him. BRICS is one item, but his relations with China formed a backdoor to sanctions. He has successfully forced the west to backdown on allowing Ukraine to conduct deep strikes with its weapons. That lack of backbone has given him a strong position in any future cease fire / peace negotiations.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 50s with scattered showers in the forecast.

RUMINT –
According to intelligence, on 27-28 October, Russia will deploy the first North Korean military in combat zones. This is a clear escalation step by Russia that matters, unlike all the disinformation that has been circulating in Kazan these days,” Zelensky said.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

The Ukrainian Air Force reported on a Shahed attack overnight. Out of 63 drones, 36 were shot down and another 16 were taken down by electronic warfare.

Russian forces continue to press hard along the Donbas region front. Yesterday was the highest reported daily casualty count for Russia in many months.

Outlook —

Russia is pressing hard in the Pokrovskv sector.

Reported deployment of N K soldiers seems a bit early, but these may be some of the special forces types not needing much train up. Many believe that they will be used in Kursk because it is Russian territory and will not cause greater international uproar like would happen if used in the effort to secure Donbas. Numbers still ranging from 9000 - 12000 NK troops.

The ability of the NK forces to integrate and communicate with adjacent Russia forces remains to be seen. Comms for just Russia forces themselves has been one of the greatest challenges they’ve faced this war, and adding an intact, foreign military fighting force will not make matters any easier.

Belarus -

During the past week, at least 18 Russian drones of the Shahed-136/131 type flew into Belarus. Most of them returned to Ukraine. One drone was shot down in Homiel region.

ISRAEL –

——— GENERAL ——————————-

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced Thursday that it had killed a Hamas commander who led the attack on dozens of civilians on October 7, 2023, who had fled the Nova music festival and hidden in roadside shelters.In addition to being a mass murderer, the IDF said, Mohammad Abu Itiwi had also worked for the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA). On October 7th, Itiwi was involved in the murder and abduction of Israeli civilians. Abu Itiwi led the murderous attack on the bomb shelter on Route 232 in the area of Re’im in southern Israel.

https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-50/

****
Reports that the leak of classified US documents forced Israel to delay its attack. Israel was reportedly concerned the leak could help Iran predict certain patterns of attack. An alternative plan development was intimated which will take time to finalize.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Activity appears to be picking up in the southern half of Gaza around Khan Younis

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

IAF hammered Hezbollah ammunition related targets in S Beirut again overnight. Also conducted dozens of CAS missions in S Lebanon.

IDF continues to blow up captured Hezbollah bases as it moves further into Lebanon.

The cumulative effects of IAF hitting Hezbollah rocket sites and ammo is very apparent as generally less than a couple hundred rockets get launched on a daily basis towards Israel as compared to the thousands IDF planners were anticipating. Last estimate, after starting with around 150,000 rockets and missiles, Hezbollah is believed to have less than 50,000 remaining. And that number is falling fast as Israel hits ammo dumps throughout Lebanon.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

The Josieh border crossing between Syria and Lebanon is out of service after its surroundings were subjected to an Israeli raid

Lebanese Transport Minister: Roads on Lebanon’s eastern border with Syria closed after Israeli raid on Syrian side of border

———WEST BANK——————————-

PA President Mahmoud Abbas has “poured” forces into Tubas in the West Bank to crack down on Iranian-backed militias there. The PA effort is meant to diminish the influence of the militias in the northern West Bank.
NOTE - These ‘militias’ are likely Hamas affiliated and are sworn enemies of the PA under Abbas. Hence, they are a threat to his party’s rule.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

WSJ reveals that Russia has been providing targeting data to the Houthis for their attacks on ships in the Red Sea. Data was passed through members of Iran’s IRGC who are embedded with the Houthis

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Operations against Hamas continue to degrade and eliminate much of the remaining Hamas and affiliated forces in N Gaza. As these operations near wrapping up, similar operation appears to be developing in S Gaza near Khan Younis.

In Lebanon, Israel is continuing to clear out border areas. The initial goal of the operation is to secure ground for settlers to be able to return to N Israel. Thus, Israel is in the process of capturing and eliminating terrain that Hezbollah has historically used for direct fire into Israel by ATGMs, mortars and some rockets. Concept similar, though smaller in scale, to Israel capturing the Golan Heights. Once this phase of the operation is done - IAF says in about 2 -3 weeks - the north will gradually be opened back up and the IDF will press harder towards its second goal - pushing Hezbollah north of the Litani River IAW UN directive 1701.

Iran is not waiting for the Israeli strike to start making threats regarding about its response - see Iran below. With the US elections closing in rapidly and the apparent requirement to reconstruct its attack plans due to the leak of classified materials, it looks more and more likely that any strike will hit after the election. It further looks like Israel will still step on many of Iran’s red lines. Netanyahu knows the deal, only strength is recognized in the region and to capitulate to Iran and strike some scattered military targets that will have very little impact on Iran’s continued threat to Israel is only weakness.

Goes back to a question I raised in an earlier post - just how many missile launching assets does Iran have? The last two attacks were within a 200 missile level. That could be all the TELs (Transporter, Erector, Launcher) vehicles they have. There are some fixed silos as well. To achieve a 1000s of missiles launched threat, Iran may be counting on shorter ranged assets they would fire on Saudi Arabia, Jordan, UAE , etc.

Would Iran threaten the oil flow from the Middle East. Yes, if they suddenly viewed that the maintenance of its islamic leadership of the county is threatened. All there countries in the Persian Gulf region have vulnerable oil facilities. For Iran to attack those would be to essentially see their hundreds of billions of dollars of oil trade vanish in fireballs for countless years to come. Similar to opposing arab countries, hence the B2 warning by the US.

An oil war, with the resultant and massive hit to the US in prices, etc could be the domino that tips the economy into not only a recession but possible depression. Current domestic oil production highs could offset some of that impact by retaining oil domestically that is currently being exported. However, that would just trigger the global oil crisis to get worse.
Remember, biden drained our reserves down to something like 10%.

Ball is in Israel’s court. They have achieved a lot of surprises by not listening to the US and others and I don’t think they are done yet.

Iran –

Iran’s response to an Israeli strike would be contingent on the extent of Israel’s attack, the officials, two of whom were from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), claimed.

According to them, the Islamic Republic may choose not to respond if Israel reduces the scope of its strike to solely military warehouses and bases.

However, were the strike to cause major casualties and destruction, or were Israel to attack nuclear, oil, or energy infrastructure or carry out targeted eliminations, Iran would hit back, the officials noted.

Iran’s response scenarios
In such a case, Iran’s response scenario could include a potential barrage of up to 1,000 ballistic missiles, further attacks by Iranian proxies, and interference in energy supplies and shipping in the Persian Gulf.

https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-826033

OBSERVATION - The question is just how capable is Iran to carry out this threat? Will Israel’s strike trigger crossing some of these red lines?

In many aspects, Iran is capable of spreading attacks across the Persian Gulf region - threatening oil production and shipping. However, that action would bring greater global pressures on Iran.

Will Israel cross these red lines? Previous red lines hasn’t stopped Israel so far. The command chain of Hezbollah is gone, Hamas is losing Gaza and the Iranian mullah’s fear they are next. The fear is strong.

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