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CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Oct 20, 2024

MY OPINIONS AND OBSERVATIONS IN GENERAL

The harris campaign has returned to the Trump Is Hitler theme. James Carville calling democrats to arms should trump win. All this rhetoric can be seen as preparing the followers for and to increased violence after the election. At this stage it doesn’t matter who wins, as democrats are vowing retribution either way.

The biggest question I face as I wade my way through my news feeds/searches is - Will the democrats actually initiate violence after the election? My current assessment is that they are fully capable, having many resources that can be or already are radicalized. They retain power for a couple months after the election and are fully capable of initiating all kinds of mayhem.

Being capable and actually doing it are almost two different things. But this time around there are plenty of those in the party ready to call for open war, and many for all practical purposes have made that call.
Will cooler heads prevail - yes and no. Globalist forces operating within the deep state need to down grade the US in order to eliminate the greatest threat to their plans. They are isolated enough to cause trouble and stand back and watch it burn.

Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Oct 20, 2024

State dept ALERT. Worldwide Caution: Social media posts on various platforms are calling for demonstrations at U.S. and Israeli facilities on Friday, October 25, 2024. U.S. citizens should avoid demonstrations and exercise caution.

POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th

**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****

****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****

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Warning for discernment over the next couple weeks. PR and propaganda will be spinning intensely with reports/stories of this or that in each campaign. Voter influencing and demoralizing are top of the list. Key polls to watch are state level with secondary to national polls. Common sense says they are skewed to influence as well, but are generally being forced to shift to more accurately depict what people think. Further great caution on using the betting “polls” as absolutes.

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Pundits are surprised at the volume of early voting - particularly the turnout on the republican side of the house. Historically, democrats have had the advantage in early voting, but in many battle ground states this is not the case anymore. Since turnout like this has never been seen, analysts are hard pressed to make firm assessments or projections. What many are saying is that the republican turnout is foretelling good things for trump.

Biden / Harris Watch –

Yesterday harris went hard left and resumed the trump is hitler meme. How she did it is concerning. She made her statement with the US and VP flags behind her, outside of the WH. Essentially she was transmitting that the fed govt is making that charge and declaration, and not here campaign.

Russia -

*****

WSJ reveals that Russia has been providing targeting data to the Houthis for their attacks on ships in the Red Sea. Data was passed through members of Iran’s IRGC who are embedded with the Houthis

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“No concessions or compromises on Ukraine,” says Putin.
“Any outcome must favor Russia, based on the realities on the battlefield. We’re not considering any concessions or trades,” he stated directly.

RUMINT-

Now a new report claims Russia gave the Yemeni rebel group targeting data in large measure to keep the U.S. entangled in the region and draw resources and attention away from Moscow’s grinding war in Ukraine.

The Houthis began attacking shipping in October of 2023 in support of Gaza and “eventually began using Russian satellite data as they expanded their strikes,” The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday. The publication cited “a person familiar with the matter and two European defense officials.”
The data “was passed through members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), who were embedded with the Houthis in Yemen,” one of the people told the Journal.

https://www.twz.com/news-features/russians-helped-houthis-target-international-shipping-report

OBSERVATIONS -
Due largely to the gross incompetence of blinker and biden, putin has successfully navigated around US and western responses to his war with Ukraine to drive things to favor him. BRICS is one item, but his relations with China formed a backdoor to sanctions. He has successfully forced the west to backdown on allowing Ukraine to conduct deep strikes with its weapons. That lack of backbone has given him a strong position in any future cease fire / peace negotiations.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 50s with scattered showers in the forecast.

RUMINT –
According to intelligence, on 27-28 October, Russia will deploy the first North Korean military in combat zones. This is a clear escalation step by Russia that matters, unlike all the disinformation that has been circulating in Kazan these days,” Zelensky said.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

The Ukrainian Air Force reported on a Shahed attack overnight. Out of 63 drones, 36 were shot down and another 16 were taken down by electronic warfare.

Russian forces continue to press hard along the Donbas region front. Yesterday was the highest reported daily casualty count for Russia in many months.

Outlook —

Russia is pressing hard in the Pokrovskv sector.

Reported deployment of N K soldiers seems a bit early, but these may be some of the special forces types not needing much train up. Many believe that they will be used in Kursk because it is Russian territory and will not cause greater international uproar like would happen if used in the effort to secure Donbas. Numbers still ranging from 9000 - 12000 NK troops.

The ability of the NK forces to integrate and communicate with adjacent Russia forces remains to be seen. Comms for just Russia forces themselves has been one of the greatest challenges they’ve faced this war, and adding an intact, foreign military fighting force will not make matters any easier.

Belarus -

During the past week, at least 18 Russian drones of the Shahed-136/131 type flew into Belarus. Most of them returned to Ukraine. One drone was shot down in Homiel region.

ISRAEL –

——— GENERAL ——————————-

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced Thursday that it had killed a Hamas commander who led the attack on dozens of civilians on October 7, 2023, who had fled the Nova music festival and hidden in roadside shelters.In addition to being a mass murderer, the IDF said, Mohammad Abu Itiwi had also worked for the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA). On October 7th, Itiwi was involved in the murder and abduction of Israeli civilians. Abu Itiwi led the murderous attack on the bomb shelter on Route 232 in the area of Re’im in southern Israel.

https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-50/

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Reports that the leak of classified US documents forced Israel to delay its attack. Israel was reportedly concerned the leak could help Iran predict certain patterns of attack. An alternative plan development was intimated which will take time to finalize.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Activity appears to be picking up in the southern half of Gaza around Khan Younis

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

IAF hammered Hezbollah ammunition related targets in S Beirut again overnight. Also conducted dozens of CAS missions in S Lebanon.

IDF continues to blow up captured Hezbollah bases as it moves further into Lebanon.

The cumulative effects of IAF hitting Hezbollah rocket sites and ammo is very apparent as generally less than a couple hundred rockets get launched on a daily basis towards Israel as compared to the thousands IDF planners were anticipating. Last estimate, after starting with around 150,000 rockets and missiles, Hezbollah is believed to have less than 50,000 remaining. And that number is falling fast as Israel hits ammo dumps throughout Lebanon.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

The Josieh border crossing between Syria and Lebanon is out of service after its surroundings were subjected to an Israeli raid

Lebanese Transport Minister: Roads on Lebanon’s eastern border with Syria closed after Israeli raid on Syrian side of border

———WEST BANK——————————-

PA President Mahmoud Abbas has “poured” forces into Tubas in the West Bank to crack down on Iranian-backed militias there. The PA effort is meant to diminish the influence of the militias in the northern West Bank.
NOTE - These ‘militias’ are likely Hamas affiliated and are sworn enemies of the PA under Abbas. Hence, they are a threat to his party’s rule.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

WSJ reveals that Russia has been providing targeting data to the Houthis for their attacks on ships in the Red Sea. Data was passed through members of Iran’s IRGC who are embedded with the Houthis

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Operations against Hamas continue to degrade and eliminate much of the remaining Hamas and affiliated forces in N Gaza. As these operations near wrapping up, similar operation appears to be developing in S Gaza near Khan Younis.

In Lebanon, Israel is continuing to clear out border areas. The initial goal of the operation is to secure ground for settlers to be able to return to N Israel. Thus, Israel is in the process of capturing and eliminating terrain that Hezbollah has historically used for direct fire into Israel by ATGMs, mortars and some rockets. Concept similar, though smaller in scale, to Israel capturing the Golan Heights. Once this phase of the operation is done - IAF says in about 2 -3 weeks - the north will gradually be opened back up and the IDF will press harder towards its second goal - pushing Hezbollah north of the Litani River IAW UN directive 1701.

Iran is not waiting for the Israeli strike to start making threats regarding about its response - see Iran below. With the US elections closing in rapidly and the apparent requirement to reconstruct its attack plans due to the leak of classified materials, it looks more and more likely that any strike will hit after the election. It further looks like Israel will still step on many of Iran’s red lines. Netanyahu knows the deal, only strength is recognized in the region and to capitulate to Iran and strike some scattered military targets that will have very little impact on Iran’s continued threat to Israel is only weakness.

Goes back to a question I raised in an earlier post - just how many missile launching assets does Iran have? The last two attacks were within a 200 missile level. That could be all the TELs (Transporter, Erector, Launcher) vehicles they have. There are some fixed silos as well. To achieve a 1000s of missiles launched threat, Iran may be counting on shorter ranged assets they would fire on Saudi Arabia, Jordan, UAE , etc.

Would Iran threaten the oil flow from the Middle East. Yes, if they suddenly viewed that the maintenance of its islamic leadership of the county is threatened. All there countries in the Persian Gulf region have vulnerable oil facilities. For Iran to attack those would be to essentially see their hundreds of billions of dollars of oil trade vanish in fireballs for countless years to come. Similar to opposing arab countries, hence the B2 warning by the US.

An oil war, with the resultant and massive hit to the US in prices, etc could be the domino that tips the economy into not only a recession but possible depression. Current domestic oil production highs could offset some of that impact by retaining oil domestically that is currently being exported. However, that would just trigger the global oil crisis to get worse.
Remember, biden drained our reserves down to something like 10%.

Ball is in Israel’s court. They have achieved a lot of surprises by not listening to the US and others and I don’t think they are done yet.

Iran –

Iran’s response to an Israeli strike would be contingent on the extent of Israel’s attack, the officials, two of whom were from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), claimed.

According to them, the Islamic Republic may choose not to respond if Israel reduces the scope of its strike to solely military warehouses and bases.

However, were the strike to cause major casualties and destruction, or were Israel to attack nuclear, oil, or energy infrastructure or carry out targeted eliminations, Iran would hit back, the officials noted.

Iran’s response scenarios
In such a case, Iran’s response scenario could include a potential barrage of up to 1,000 ballistic missiles, further attacks by Iranian proxies, and interference in energy supplies and shipping in the Persian Gulf.

https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-826033

OBSERVATION - The question is just how capable is Iran to carry out this threat? Will Israel’s strike trigger crossing some of these red lines?

In many aspects, Iran is capable of spreading attacks across the Persian Gulf region - threatening oil production and shipping. However, that action would bring greater global pressures on Iran.

Will Israel cross these red lines? Previous red lines hasn’t stopped Israel so far. The command chain of Hezbollah is gone, Hamas is losing Gaza and the Iranian mullah’s fear they are next. The fear is strong.