Posted on 01/01/2024 5:05:22 AM PST by Godzilla
That is why Israel, for a time, was not sharing intelligence or information with the US. They know that the US will just go and blab it to Iran.
This is appalling.
Israel needs to tell the US NOTHING.
Damage to who?
Israel, or to the Democrat Presidential contender?
(American Jews often exhibit self-loathing, self-defeating behavior.)
The documents appear to reflect our spying on Israel
*sigh*
Not a good move on the part of the US.
The world's totalitarians are worried Trump might win and they need to act now - and the world's free peoples worry Kamala might win and shut down the US and throw Israel under the bus. This possible betrayal of Israel is an example of that freak out.
Afraid if I were the Iranian intel type who received this gift, I would be very very wary.
Who involved can Iran trust?
Between the lack of trust even citizens of US have in their government of late and the way Israel has been pulling coup after coup on everybody in sight ever since '48, it's entirely possible that 1) Israel leaked a bogus plan for the US pass along, 2) US intel made up the plan to paint Israel as aggressor, 3) Whatever plan got passed Israel has already changed it to trap/destroy Iranian counter moves.
...or any permutation or combination that you can imagine.
All things considered I'd vote to play a nice game of chess.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Oct 20, 2024
Maintaining MODERATE threat as there are currently no significant indicators of impending violence. This may well change after the elections, so enjoy the next few weeks.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Oct 20, 2024
Threat status up dated as the nation approaches election day. Maintaining HIGH conditions.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
The Biden administration rang up a budget deficit topping $1.8 trillion in fiscal 2024, up more than 8% from the previous year and the third highest on record, the Treasury Department said Friday.
Even with a modest surplus in September, the shortfall totaled $1.833 trillion, $138 billion higher than a year ago. The only years the U.S. has seen a great deficit were 2020 and 2021 when the government poured trillions into spending associated with the Covid-19 pandemic.
The deficit came despite record receipts of $4.9 trillion, which fell well short of outlays of $6.75 trillion.
Government debt has swelled to $35.7 trillion, an increase of $2.3 trillion from the end of fiscal 2023.
OBSERVATION - This boat anchor is going to finally come due - likely when the “Great Reset” hits and the American people will be able to do nothing about it. All deliberate by the deep state assets of the WEF/Globalists.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
**** Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****
***
At a rally for Kamala Harris, recording artist Lizzo said something that was supposed to help her chosen candidate.
“When harris wins she’ll turn the US into Detroit. “
Epic Facepalm
Biden / Harris Watch –
Harris trying to portray Trump as physically and mentally incapable of office due to their view of ‘exhaustion’ on the campaign trail However, harris was only able to remain on the stage at a rally yesterday for a little under 7 minutes. Trump OTOH put in 17 hour days actively campaigning.
Also, observers are noting harris’ behavior at rallies, suggesting that she may well be at least ‘buzzed’ if not actually drunk
Cyber attacks/warfare – Moderate ALERT as of Oct 20, 2024
RUMINT - 3 national security “sources” have reportedly confirmed that a nationwide 9/11 style cyberattack against America is widely expected by the intelligence agencies on (or near) Election Day.
OBSERVATION - A cyber attack of this nature has been warned about for many months now. I’ve not seen any further confirmation of this warning on any of my other feelers but given the current state of the politics and the global turmoil with several nations with cyber assault capable elements (Iran, China, Russia) such an attack could throw the processing of the election results into turmoil.
Illegal Immigration –
Panama’s Ministry of Public Security has revealed that the number of Venezuelan migrants crossing the Darien Gap surged by 80 percent in September following the post-election crackdown in Venezuela and the suspension of humanitarian group Doctors Without Borders (MSF).
OBSERVATION - Signs of another surge trying to form, not only from Venezuelans but others as well.
China –
China involved in brokering an palestinian agreement on ruling Gaza post war - See Israel below
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 40-60s with scattered showers in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 31 of 49 Shahed-type strike drones overnight, tracking of 13 lost, 2 drones left for Belarus. Also Russian army launched 2 Iskander-M missiles. Targeted region appears to be western Ukraine.
According to the Russian Defense Ministry, air defense destroyed 110 drones overnight. 43 over the Kursk region, 27 over Lipetsk, 18 over Oryol, 8 over Nizhny Novgorod, 7 over Belgorod, 6 over Bryansk, and one over the Moscow region (Ramenskoye). It appears there was at least one successful strike as smoke was observed rising after explosions in Dzerzhinsk of Nizhniy Novgorod region
Russia continues to press ground attacks in Kursk and the Donbas fronts, with high casualties and minimal if any advances.
Outlook —
The fight in eastern Ukraine continues as it has been. Russia eking out small gains at high personnel and equipment losses. The growing evidence of N Korean forces training for incorporation into Russian military formations now suggests NK is trying to form up several brigade sized elements in Russia.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Russia pouring a lot of money into the Moldovan elections in an effort to prevent the nation from moving more towards the EU and away from Russia.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Highly classified documents produced by US intelligence leaked to an Iranian Telegraph channel.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
CNN report: An investigation has been opened in the US following the leak of classified intelligence documents from the Pentagon regarding Israel’s preparations for a response in Iran. The leak occurred on Friday when the Middle East Spectator Telegram channel claimed it had received documents about Israel’s strike preparations from a source within the US intelligence community. This Telegram channel is known for publishing pro-Iranian propaganda, and its associated Twitter account states that its operators are based in Iran.
“Middle East Spectator” claims: We are open source news archives. We thought the documents were running on Telegram. We do not know the identity of the leaker and reject attempts by the American and Israeli media to intimidate our reporters”
The two documents released were prepared in recent days by the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, which is responsible for analyzing images and information collected by American spy satellites. The documents, which offer interpretations of satellite imagery, provide insight into a potential strike by Israel on Iran in the coming days. US officials have implied that the documents are authentic
IT SHOULD BE NOTED - that these documents are not Israeli plans for the attack, but US intel collected against Israel surveilling its preparations for the attack and the analysis of that intel.
U.S. Department of Defense and FBI is reportedly investigating to determine the source of the leaked. Unconfirmed reports suggest that it is believed the documents were likely to have been leaked by a member of the U.S. Military; similar to the leak of several documents on the war in Ukraine which occurred in April of 2023, which was linked to a Airman in the Massachusetts Air National Guard.
OBSERVATION - The leak is bad enough, but to be spying that intently on Israel is a whole other level.
***
Hamas has declared that Israeli hostages will not be released until Israel halts its military operations in Gaza and withdraws its forces from the besieged territory. Khalil Al-Hayya, deputy chief of Hamas in Gaza and the group’s chief negotiator, made the statement on Friday, as the conflict between Hamas and Israel continues to escalate.
***
More than a dozen Palestinian factions—including bitter rivals Fatah and Hamas—recently signed a national unity deal aimed at maintaining Palestinian control over the Gaza Strip after the war with Israel ends. Known as the Beijing Declaration, the deal, negotiated by China, lays the groundwork for an interim national reconciliation government to rule post-war Gaza.
The Beijing Declaration has several major objectives: (1) creating an interim Palestinian national unity government for Gaza and the West Bank, (2) unifying Palestinian institutions, and (3) electing a new Palestinian National Council. The agreement leaves out crucial details, including whether Hamas will recognize Israel’s right to exist.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who said the agreement was “dedicated to the great reconciliation and unity of all 14 [Palestinian] factions,” outlined a three-step plan for post-war Gaza: (1) promoting a lasting ceasefire, (2) upholding the principle of “Palestinians governing Palestine,” and (3) recognizing an independent Palestinian state. An official Chinese statement included a commitment to “the establishment of an independent Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital.” President Xi Jinping additionally called for an international peace conference aimed at achieving Palestine’s “full” membership in the United Nations.
Middle East expert Tahani Mustafa believes the Beijing Declaration will fail because Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas is opposed to sharing power with Hamas. “The biggest obstacle so far has been Mahmoud Abbas and his absolute reluctance to relinquish in any way his monopoly on power. . . . It would mean Fatah losing its hegemony over the last Palestinian political institution it controls,” she said.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Hundreds of Hamas and affiliated terrorists surrendered in N Gaza after Israel gave an ultimatum to surrender or die.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The ongoing conflict between the Iranian-backed Lebanese terrorist group and Israel has exacerbated sectarian tensions within Lebanon. This escalation has led to significant internal displacement, further straining relations between Lebanon’s diverse religious communities, which include Sunni and Shia Muslims, various Christian sects and the Druze community. As the conflict intensifies, the internal divisions within Lebanon’s fragile societal mosaic become more pronounced, creating further instability in the country.
https://allisrael.com/hezbollah-s-conflict-with-israel-fuels-rising-sectarian-tensions-in-lebanon
***
Arab sources are announcing tonight that a recent air strike IDF has killed in southern Lebanon a senior commander of the Radwan force named Bassel Mustafa Shukr. According to the publications, Bassel was one of the commanders of Hezbollah’s elite unit
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israeli raid targets Al-Mushrifah on the Lebanese-Syrian border
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Al Qaeda calls on Hamas to release the Israeli hostages.
The announcement was made yesterday by Abu Walid al-Masri, a senior advisor and father-in-law of Saif al-Adel, the leader of Al-Qaeda.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
The classified document leak is going to tank any remaining Israeli trust in the US govt. The leaked documents primarily focus on the Israeli preparations and exercised in preparation for the attack and are NOT documents provided by Israel to the US. They do not divulge targets or timing.
What is damaging is the identification of the attack method Israel appears to be planning to use - air launched ballistic missiles for starters. These are similar in concept to the Russian Х-47 Kinzhal hypersonic air-launched ballistic missile being used in the Ukraine. The Israeli versions of these missiles are reportedly more powerful and significantly more accurate.
Second key leakage was reporting of air refueling training to get the airframes to launch positions. These are potential warning indicators for Iran to be alerted to the start of the attack.
Some are trying to down play the leak on some low level operator in the agency, possibly military. Lets not forget that 0bama and biden have allowed Iranian sympathetic employees into the intel community, so the leaker may only be a patsy for someone higher up.
The leak gives Israel even more right to keep DC in the dark. Additionally, the dedication of US intel resources to so closely observer Israeli planning and operations doesn’t foster trust either.
IMHO, the whole affair as it is currently panning out indicates the US is not for Israel and the timing of the leak shows support towards Iran and the islamic terrorists in the region.
Big question now is what affect is this leak going to have on Israel’s target set and timing? It may now delay action against Iran until after the US elections. Some political pundits go as far as the leak was designed to delay the attack so as not to mess around with the Democrats Muslim vote in Michigan and elsewhere.
One other new factor that has popped up that will literally blow up in Iran’s face. Iran attempted to assassinate Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu by directing targeting his private residence with a drone. This attack provides Israel with all the legitimacy to target the residence of the Islamic Republic Supreme Leader’s residence or hidey hole.
N Gaza operations are accelerating the take down of Hamas et al. Hundreds of terrorists raised the white flag and surrendered yesterday after the surrender or die ultimatum. The loss os Sinwar and continued pounding by IDF forces have demoralize the terrorists.
Now big money is being offered to gazans for the release of live hostages. This may result in the freeing of many of the dozens still believed to be in captivity.
Hezbollah continues to be hammered in the south while IAF airstrikes have been reduced in the north. Beirut is still getting hammered almost daily, but not with the same intensity of a couple weeks ago when Nazarallah was taken out. I noted that the reduction in air strikes may well be associated with preparations for the assault on Iran.
Israel’s ground process appears to be very slow, but that is largely due to Israel ensuring that any Hezbollah bunker/tunnels etc are destroyed and captured military materials removed. Hezbollah is still avoiding decisive engagements, breaking contact where possible
Iran –
Iranian Foreign Minister says we have identified the targets that we will bomb in Israel if we are attacked. Israel will receive appropriate response to any attack on Iran
Misc of Note –
Gold and Silver prices skyrocketed to new highs Friday. Gold now within striking distance of $2800/oz and silver gaining over 10% ($4+ per oz) Commonly, prices increase when the dollar is weak or there are concerns over international stability. The latter is the only comment I’ve seen regarding this spike. This may be a growing concern over the pending Israeli strike on Iran combined with uncertainties in the political realm. The size of the increase was impressive.
IDK if the timing is associated with the leakage of the classified documents on Israel’s preparations to attack Iran or not. Timelines are fairly parallel.
Those in the metals markets are looking at something serious happening. We will see next week if profit taking kicks in and takes the edge off the gains, or if they will continue up.
IDK if the timing is associated with the leakage of the classified documents on Israel’s preparations to attack Iran or not. Timelines are fairly parallel.
Those in the metals markets are looking at something serious happening. We will see next week if profit taking kicks in and takes the edge off the gains, or if they will continue up.
Biden's goons leaking information against a friend - and FOR the benefit of enemies of the US is almost the act of a traitor on Biden's part - IF Biden was running the country...
What a mess.
Maybe Biden's puppet masters are trying FOR war in order to 'call off elections'? Nah, to drama queenish.. Or just destabilize the country even more? Is that part of the insane choices happening by Biden's people against Israel and for Iran, China and Russia?
I just came across this live feed from CNN.
Video says its been going on for 11 hours.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mJH7nbe3yog
Israel Vs Iran War Live | Iran Attacks Israel Live | Israel Hezbollah War Live | Iran Attack | N18G
408 am in Jerusalem now.
Thanks I’ll check it out
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
“It’s very clear that consumers are running out of money. They’re increasingly stressed by inflation and the exhaustion of their pandemic-era savings. When you take a look over the last several years, what you see month after month, everyone talks about, the consumer’s still spending. They might be, but they’re spending less than the growth of inflation,” Storch Advisors CEO Gerald Storch told Fox Bussiness’ Maria Bartiromo on Thursday during an interview.
The longtime retail executive’s ominous warning about consumers stalling this holiday season comes after retail sales showed consumers increased their purchases at retailers last month. However, this is only because of higher prices. In other words, consumers are spending more but receiving less.
OBSERVATION - People know in their pocket books things suck and their budgets continually shrink.
***
Traditionally, the performance of the home improvement industry has been a very important economic harbinger.
And at this moment the home improvement industry is really struggling.
For example, True Value has been doing so poorly that it was finally forced to file for bankruptcy…
Home Depot has been dumping millions of square feet of warehouse space. They wouldn’t be doing this if they thought that the economy would be turning around any time soon.
Another giant in the home improvement industry, PPG, has decided the time has come for mass layoffs…
PPG — a global manufacturer of paints, coatings, and specialty materials — is laying off nearly 2,000 workers as it trims operation costs and sells off a chunk of its architectural business.
OBSERVATION - I’ve been pointing out for a number of years now that the housing industry is one of the key indicators of the health of the economy. These aspects of the housing market are not looking good and reflect the overall lack of funds available to the consumer. Contrary to regime and associated sources, the economy is not doing well.
***
Silver prices soared by over 6% last week, breaking through the crucial $33.6 per ounce mark and sending shockwaves through global markets. The surge has put five major U.S. banks at risk of massive losses, potentially in the billions, due to their heavy short positions in the precious metal.
According to data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the open interest in silver futures contracts has reached a staggering 141,580 contracts, each representing 5,000 ounces of silver. This translates to a total of 707,900,000 ounces – nearly equivalent to a year’s worth of global silver production.
With silver prices surging by $1.84 per ounce, these short positions are now underwater by an estimated $1.3 billion. Sources close to the matter report that gold futures are experiencing a similar trend, with paper shorts down over $1.5 billion.
The scale of this short position is particularly alarming given that it is reportedly concentrated among just five U.S. banks. Industry analysts are questioning how such a small group of institutions could take on a short position representing an entire year’s worth of global silver mining output.
https://www.jpost.com/business-and-innovation/precious-metals/article-825207
RELATED - With Friday’s new 12-year high closing price, silver has chewed through minor resistance at $32, a level first reached this past May. Silver is now set up to rocket higher like it did in 2020 for one all-important reason. The demand for physical metal is gaining the upper hand over the short sellers in the paper market attempting to ‘tamp down’ the price. Inevitably physical trumps paper because a real thing is more valuable and useful than just a promise to deliver a real thing at some future date
https://kingworldnews.com/james-turk-says-50-silver-is-days-or-weeks-away-not-months/
OBSERVATIONS - NOTE as of this morning, prices are continuing to climb.
I posted about the substantial jump in gold and silver prices last week. Seems that the fight between ‘paper’ metals (gold and silver) and physical metal has shifted to the physical. Still looking for a more clear explanation, but the dots I’m connecting (and would welcome other input) is the reflection that in this case, 5 major banks bet the farm on shorts, in an effort to diffuse greater effects from the economy in general and those efforts are now no longer keeping prices down.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Scale of military airlift to Israel is seen by observers to exceed the necessary for the deployment of a THAADs battery and has continued at a high pace following operational deployment of the unit. The US THAAD air-defense system is now fully operational in Israel.
SEE Israel below for more details.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****
***
Dominion Voting Systems has issued a chilling warning to conservatives just weeks before the all-important presidential election.
In a post on the X platform, the company said that it was “closely monitoring” claims that its machines may be compromised.
“Dominion is closely monitoring claims around the Nov. 2024 election and strongly encourages use of verified, credible sources of info,” the post says.
“We remain fully prepared to defend our company & our customers against lies and those who spread them.”
OBSERVATION - Company successfully launched a number of defamation lawsuits over 2020 and now is trying to bully opponents in the lead up to this election. However, if rigging comes to the forefront again, and trump wins anyway, they could find themselves in deep doo-doo as there has been a lot of other investigations over the past four years that clearly demonstrate the security claims of the machines is weak to nonexistent.
***
Trump’s ‘work’ at a Pennsylvania McDonalds caused a melt down not only of the internet but the left in general. It totally stripped away their narrative that trump was this evil ogre set on the path to humanity’s destruction.
I had to laugh and applaud trump - the action was a political masterstroke and was the recovery of something political campaigns have lost - especially this cycle - a good dose of humor.
Of course the left melted down, they had no counter for it.
Biden / Harris Watch –
harris and the democrats are massively outspending trump, but getting very little return on their dollar. her ‘message’ keeps getting washed out by her statements in recent interviews and other speeches.
BTW, her telling Christians that they were not welcome at her rally, when similar happened at a JD Vance event - he welcomed them.
Now practicing witches are getting very vocal for their support of harris. Hmmm
Cyber attacks/warfare – Moderate ALERT as of Oct 20, 2024
(The Epoch Times)—The FBI and a federal agency dedicated to cybersecurity issued a warning on Oct. 18 about efforts by foreign actors trying to “spread disinformation” regarding the upcoming Nov. 5 election—with just over two weeks ago before the contest.
The FBI and the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) said they have “no information suggesting cyber activity against U.S. election infrastructure” that has “compromised the integrity of voter registration information, prevented an eligible voter from casting a ballot, impacted the integrity of any ballots cast, or disrupted the ability to count votes or transmit unofficial election results in a timely manner.”
But the two agencies said that foreign adversaries still might promote “false or misleading narratives” to sway the election or to undermine American confidence in its election systems and processes.
https://thelibertydaily.com/here-we-go-fbi-cyber-agency-issue-disinformation/
RELATED - The 2024 Homeland Security Critical Infrastructure Conference is planning a “large-scale cybersecurity exercise” on November 5.
OBSERVATION - Focus on disinformation / misinformation. Yep, bad guys likely to incorporate the scheme into their interference of the elections - especially with the growth in the use of AI.
The Nov 5 “exercise” is more concerning - is there something more serious afoot?
Illegal Immigration –
A small village near Cincinnati, Ohio, is being invaded by Mauritanian illegal immigrants, resulting in a 2,800 percent increase over 2022 when just 543 of them arrived in the town. Lockland Village Administrator Doug Wehmeyer said the illegal aliens have plagued the streets with fentanyl and crime. He told Fox News Digital that the illegal immigrants are siphoning resources that should otherwise be used for legal American citizens living in the community.
“You have an apartment building that’s . . . say, 80 units at four people per unit. That’s about 320 people. When you double or maybe even triple that population, the building systems aren’t designed to handle that,” Wehmeyer said. “When you use the utilities, that’s backing up. We have instances where people are going in to take a shower and feces is running out of the drains, filling the bathtubs as it comes from a floor above. That’s compounded probably by the cooking methods that they use, which is a heavy grease-laden process.”
OBSERVATION - This is Cloward and Piven directed at small towns, not the large metro areas it was originally designed for. Overload the welfare system and push for greater govt controls and resources.
China –
Chinese Communist President Xi Jinping ordered the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to ramp up its preparedness for war, as reported by Chinese state media on Saturday, according to Barrons.
Xi’s call for heightened military readiness comes just days after China conducted large-scale military drills surrounding Taiwan.
While visiting a brigade of the PLA Rocket Force on Thursday, Xi Jinping urged troops to “comprehensively strengthen training and preparation for war” and to ensure they possess “solid combat capabilities.”
This latest move demonstrates the growing intensity of China’s military ambitions and its continued focus on Taiwan, which the Chinese Communist Party views as part of its territory.
OBSERVATION - Xi has made other calls for the military to increase its preparations for war over the past couple years. He may be seeing a potential window of opportunity with political chaos breaking out as the election nears and the transition period before Trumps inauguration. Such a diversion could enable China to get a real blockade of Taiwan instigated and in place before the regime in DC can react.
North/South Korea –
Russia’s military cooperation with North Korea does not go against South Korea’s security interests: Russian envoy
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 40-60s with scattered showers in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Big Russian night for drones again. Ukrainian air defense shot down 59 of 119 Shahed-type strike drones overnight, and about 10 are still flying. Drones targeted a number of sites in Eastern Ukraine as well as the Odesa region.
(ISW) Russian forces appear to be further intensifying mechanized activity in western Donetsk Oblast amid initial reports of the start of autumnal muddy ground conditions. Russian and Ukrainian sources have recently reported worsening ground conditions throughout the frontline in Ukraine, and the arrival or the impending arrival of muddy ground conditions are likely prompting the Russian military command to intensify mechanized offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast.
Example - Russian forces attempted to seize the Oskil crossing and split the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ foothold on the left bank. The assault was repelled by joint efforts of the Achilles strike UAV battalion, the “Bureviy” brigade, “Pomsta” border guards, and the 77th Airborne Brigade.
In total, 8 BMPs, 3 tanks were destroyed, 6 BMPs damaged, 21 Russians eliminated, and 26 wounded.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced north of Sudzha in Kursk Oblast and Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Toretsk and Selydove (southeast of Pokrovsk) in Donetsk Oblast.
Outlook —
Over the weekend, Russia has managed a thin salient south of Pokrovsk, as noted above. Other than that, its the same old grind.
Increased armor assaults noted above as well. These are not the fluid, maneuver operations that allowed Ukraine to quickly capture a chunk of Kursk. These assaults are commonly pedal to the metal ‘charges’ that try to quickly drop infantry off for a ground assault. Russian forces have no concept of fire and maneuver and these charges are often foiled by very simple Ukraine defenses of hitting the lead vehicle, causing the column to stop (often bunching the vehicles together) and taking it out with drones and artillery. Often, Russian infantry flees back to get out of the kill zone as quickly as possible. Generally they are not fast enough.
Initial assessments of Russia’s offensive operations of the past year are pretty dismal. Massive losses of men and material have only resulted in an increase of less than 1% territorial gain. There is no evidence that Russia will achieve its goals in the near future either.
I expect Russia to continue the massive drone attacks - very possibly to drain ADA resources for an overdue large ballistic and cruise missile strike(s.
Moldova/Transnistria -
With more than 99 percent of the votes counted, the “yes” vote for EU membership was slightly ahead at 50.28 percent — only 8,000 votes more than the anti-EU camp.
Earlier, Moldovans appeared to have had rejected plans for the former Soviet republic to add its goal of joining the EU to the constitution, preliminary results from 70% of ballots in the country’s referendum showed on Sunday evening.
However, ballots from Moldovans living abroad were counted towards the end, giving the “yes” camp a last-minute push.
A largely agricultural country of around 2.5 million people, Moldova has sought to cut ties with Moscow and move closer to the EU since Russia’s invasion of neighboring Ukraine in 2022.
The former Soviet republic began EU membership talks in June.
Ahead of the referendum, surveys showed around 55% of Moldovans would support the move, while 34% were against it.
The turnout was close to 50%, far higher than the 33% needed for the result to be valid.
Pro-Russian parties had urged people to vote “no” or boycott the vote altogether.
OBSERVATION - Narrow victory. Russia has maintained that Moldova is Russian territory and attempted to force the issue beginning with the Transnistria breakaway. Russia’s war with Ukraine was also designed to cement Russia’s claims by establishing a ‘land bridge’ to the break away republic, setting up a future military takeover/invasion by Russian forces.
Russia stands accused in this election of massive attempts to purchase votes and influence the results.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- The US THAAD air-defense system is now fully operational in Israel.
- IAF targeted Hezbollah financial institutions in Beirut and all across Lebanon.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Israel gave the United States a document last week with its conditions for a diplomatic solution to end the war in Lebanon, Axios reported on Sunday, citing two U.S. officials and two Israeli officials. Israel has demanded its IDF forces be allowed to engage in “active enforcement” to make sure Hezbollah doesn’t rearm and rebuild its military infrastructure close to the border, Axios reported, citing an Israeli official. Israel also demanded its air force have freedom of operation in Lebanese air space, the report added.
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hkk20l7ejx#autoplay
***
The United Nations peacekeeping mission in southern Lebanon said the Israeli army had “deliberately” damaged one of their positions, the latest incident reported by the force.
***
Israel’s security cabinet convened this yesterday. A lot of speculation whether this will be the final session before the order to strike in Iran.
***
At least 23 US military flights landed in Israel in recent days. Some of the early flights were associated with the THAAD air defense deployment, but activity has continued at a high tempo.
So far, 26 US Air Force C-17A Globemaster III’s have been involved in the delivery of THAAD hardware and personnel since 14 October.
Flights by origin:
16 - Fort Cavazos, TX
6 - Anniston, AL
2 - Pope AAF, NC
2 - Biggs AAF, TX
OSINT observers note the levels of activity are exceeding that normally expected from the deployment of a single battery.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah managed to fire about 200 rockets towards Israel yesterday, with very little damage reported and no deaths or injuries.
***
Israel bombed overnight Lebanese branches of an association accused of financing the Iran-backed Hezbollah movement, Lebanese state media reported late Sunday 14 financial targets were hit throughout Beirut. These were branches of Hezbollah’s economic fund - “Al Qard al-Hassan” (loans without interest), which they used to pay their fighters and other associates. Branches in other parts of Lebanon were also hit. Lebanon is largely a currency based economy, no debit or credit cards, so payments were in cash. These attacks were designed to destroy not only the facilities to operate the banks, but more specifically to physically destroy the multiple billions of dollars they had to keep in those branches. Those paper currencies and coins will be very hard to replace as much of the support has to come from Iran. Lack of pay will make many Hezbollah fighters reconsider their employment and other elements supporting the terrorists unlikely to provide goods and material ‘on credit’.
NOTE - The Israeli strike that killed Nazerallah also destroyed hundreds of million in paper currency as well as reportedly melted down a stockpile of gold.
***
IAF also hit ammo storage facilities that Hezbollah used located around the Rafic Hariri international airport in Beirut. Last night, Israel surrounded that airport with a “belt of fire” and destroyed all those weapons that Hezbollah tried to protect by placing it close to civilian airplanes.
Hezbollah warned early in the conflict not to attack those facilities.
***
IDF continues to methodically move northward. They are taking their time because as part of their mission, they are deliberately removing Hezbollah positions and installations, rendering them unusable for any future conflict. One example over the weekend was the destruction of a massive tunnel complex under Ramyeh village in south Lebanon. Village was built on a hill. The tunnels were blown up yesterday, and the village above them is now gone as well.
***
Israeli units known to be operating in S Lebanon -
- IDF 210th Division continued operations in Hasbaya District, southern Lebanon, on October 20.
- IDF 98th Division continued operations in southeastern Lebanon on October 20.
- IDF 91st Division continued operations in southeastern Lebanon on October 20.
- IDF 36th Division continued to advance in Aita al Shaab and Ramyeh in southern Lebanon on October 20.
- 146th Division continued operations in southwestern Lebanon.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Russia and Syrian forces recently completed an exercise near the Israeli border.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
A large number of drones were fired at Israel overnight by Iranian backed militias in Iraq. Most were intercepted and destroyed over Jordan and the few that made it past there were taken out over Syria.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Israel has the hair of the bear and Netanyahu has turned into a honey badger. The persecution of the war against hamas and hezbollah is likely not what the terrorist planners anticipated. They expected israel to react as in the past by succumbing to the external pressures of islamic favoring nations and the US to limit their attacks and accept some sort of a cease fire agreement that lets the terrorists gain a degree of victory. Their placement of facilities, ammo dumps etc, under and within civilian facilities (hospitals, schools, etc) deterred Israel in the past.
Hamas misjudged greatly the Israeli response from Oct 7. Hezbollah quickly repeated the same error. Israel has fought this war with the goal to destroy both entities, and the world in part stands shocked.
A further extension of this is the overnight targeting of Hezbollah’s banking network. This will seriously impair their ability to pay their soldiers as well as other supporter and bills. Not only is Israel denying Hezbollah its rockets and other arms/munitions, it is denying them their financial bloodline. This puts further pressure on Iran, who’s been funneling money into these banks to keep thing propped up. With Israeli interdiction shutting that supply down Hezbollah will be facing increasing difficulties with its fight against Israel.
Little coming out on the investigation into the leaking of two highly classified documents to Iran. I am monitoring rumors that a relatively high placed official in the US intel community of middle east heritage is under suspicion, but no external confirmation.
The ongoing massive airlift to Israel appears above and beyond that normally seen necessary for a THAAD batter deployment. SOMETHING has got the motivator rolling in the regime to get stuff there in a hurry. I’ve seen no word yet on an approval for a second battery, so what else is coming in?
Rumors continue that the Israeli strike is imminent, but that the document leak may have caused some delay so Israel could modify its plans. Conventional OSINT is not providing any further clues and with the leak, Israeli OPSEC is even tighter than usual.
Finally, Gaza continues to be a killing field of hamas terrorists. No clear replacement for Sinwar have been identified or announced. Hundreds of fighters are surrendering in N Gaza, the fight is closing in on the end game. Not a whole lot left intact either, as Hamas burrowed itself so deeply into its human shields and UN facilities, a lot was destroyed. More destroyed as Israel blew up portions of the tunnel networks, destroying overlying civilian buildings. The biggest remaining thing on Israel’s radar is one item that the world continually overlooks - return of the hostages.
Iran –
More threats of massive retaliation for any Israeli strike
OBSERVATION - At this stage I’m wondering just how big of a missile capability Iran has. Both in April and Oct 1, the total number of ballistic missiles seemed to be capped at around 200 range. Does Iran have the capability to launch even more in a barrage or not? While the last barrage fared better than the one in April, Israel is more prepared this time around.
Central / South America General-
CUBA - Noting that the island has faced days of power outages and now is being hit by a Cat 1 Hurricane. Ever since the fall of the Soviet Union, Cuba has been suffering from lack of external support to keep the island functioning.
The threat this poses is that Cuba will be even more desperate and China especially expand its presence on the island in exchange for support to the regime.
Thanks
The paint industry ALWAYS slows down come fall and winter. This isn't much of a surprise although you'd think that what with storm damage down south where the painting season can go on for a couple more months, it might keep going for a bit.
However, I'm sure people are worried more about pulling things together from all the storm damage than painting right now. Lots of fixing up comes first.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics
Discussions that Bill Gates has released wuhan ‘vaccines’ that contain an abortion promoting drug. Most reports coming out of Japan on this.
China –
China held a live-firing exercise from its territory closest to Taiwan one week after it launched a large-scale drill encircling the island.
Chinese military drills off the Taiwanese coast have intensified in recent years as its claims over the self-governed island have grown.
Beijing announced late on Monday that an area around Niushan - an island 105km (66 miles) from Taiwan - will be closed for drills for four hours from 09:00 local time (01:00 GMT) on Tuesday.
Taiwan’s premier Cho Jung-tai said on Tuesday that China should not be conducting such exercises given their threat to regional stability.
“No matter how large the scale of the drill is, they should not be frequent and close to Taiwan,” he told reporters. “This will only cause unnecessary tension.”
Although Taipei has called the drills routine, analysts believe China is likely sending a message given their proximity to Taiwan.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3rlrv1qewqo
OBSERVATION - Program of maintaining pressure on Taiwan while preparing for an eventual action against it.
North/South Korea –
South Korea vows to take ‘phased measures’ in response to North Korea-Russia military cooperation.
South Korea may send military and intelligence personnel to Ukraine in response to North Korea sending troops to Russia, according to Newsweek. These specialists could interrogate captured North Korean soldiers and provide tactical/operational insights.
Russia -
*****
Tuesday’s opening of the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia. For President Vladimir Putin will it will be an opportunity to personally engage with multiple world leaders, including China’s Xi Jinping, India’s Narendra Modi, Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Iran’s Masoud Pezeshkian.
The multipolarity is on, and dedollarization is on everyone’s minds.
Associated Press reported:
“They will all be in the Russian city of Kazan on Tuesday for a meeting of the BRICS bloc of developing economies, defying predictions that the war in Ukraine and an international arrest warrant against Putin would turn him into a pariah.”
Initially, the group was formed by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – but lately it started to rapidly expand.
Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia joined in January; Turkey, Azerbaijan and Malaysia also formally applied, along with a rather large number of other countries who have expressed a desire to join.
Russia sees the meeting as a great success. 36 countries confirmed participation, and of those, more than 20 will send heads of state.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/10/multipolarity-brics-summit-kicks-tomorrow-kazan-russia-36/
OBSERVATION - BRICS is a challenge to the global dominance of the dollar. The founding countries sought other ways around the economic sanctions brought on by the US, so alternative currencies for payment agreements started. This is a growing movement, but is unlikely to replace the dollar any time soon unless there is a serious collapse of the dollar via economic crisis in the US. The US will eventually have to face the completion or the erosion of the dollar support will cause a crash here in the US as well. Rock meet hard place.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 40-60s with scattered showers in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight Russia launched about 60 Shaheds into Ukraine with 42 being shot down. Ten more were lost due to electronic warfare and four flew back to either Belarus or Russia.
Ukrainian drones hit Russian regions overnight. Explosions were reported in Tambov where a distillery (ethanol) plant was hit. Drones have also attacked a thermal power plant and a synthetic rubber plant in the Tula region.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Novosadove village in Donetsk region of Ukraine.
Another ‘large’ armor assault launched by Russia overnight. A total, 7 tanks and 11 BMPs advanced towards the positions of the 46th Air Assault Brigade. Ukrainian units destroyed 2 tanks (one T-90M) and 5 BMPs, while 2 damaged tanks retreated. 28 Russians were eliminated.
Outlook —
No real trends to report. Russia continues to claw some Ukrainian terrain at high costs of men and material. Mud season is becoming more prominent as rains start to return.
Currently the biggest issue is the trading and presence of N Korean forces in Russia and possibly into the war zone.
Europe / NATO General –
John Healey, British Defense Secretary: It is very likely that a transfer of forces from North Korea to Russia has begun
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- IDF continues to close the loop on remaining Hamas elements in N Gaza.
- Israel continued to hit Hezbollah financial resources in Lebanon and Syria.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is currently meeting with the United States Secretary of State Anthony Blinken in Jerusalem
***
Seven Jewish Israelis have been arrested for allegedly carrying out tasks for Iran, including taking photos and gathering information on Israeli army bases, the Justice Ministry says. According to a statement from the State Attorney’s Office, the seven, from Haifa and other northern towns, include a deserter soldier and two minors. The seven allegedly gathered information on the Nevatim and Ramat David airbases, the Israeli army HQ in Tel Aviv, Iron Dome batteries, the Golani training base, and other sites, per the instructions of their Iranian operators. Indictments are expected to be filed against the suspects on Friday, the ministry adds.
***
Channel 13 reports that members of the Israeli Political-Security Cabinet were informed during last night’s meeting, that Israel will soon launch a “Very Significant Attack” inside Iran, but that they would not be notified of its nature in advance; with officials believing that Iran will forcefully respond to the attack.
***
WSJ reports that Sinwar cited pressure from the Israeli opposition and the White House as reasons to reject a hostage deal and hold out for more.
The pressure to stop the war from the side of the U.S. administration and the Israeli progressive left is the reason why the hostages aren’t back!
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
IDF issuing more evacuations orders for N Gaza areas, directing individuals south toward safe areas near Khan Younis.
Palestinian civilians trying to evacuate intense fighting in the northern Gaza Strip are being shot by Hamas terrorists trying to prevent them from leaving, an Israel Defense Forces medic said on Monday.
The IDF said that thousands of Palestinian civilians have adhered to the military’s calls to evacuate Jabaliya amid a renewed military offensive aimed at preventing Hamas from regrouping in the area.
The evacuations were taking place despite the Hamas-run Interior Ministry ordering civilians earlier this month to ignore the instructions to relocate to other safer areas in the Strip.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/hamas-terrorists-shooting/2024/10/22/id/1184947/
OBSERVATIONS - This is not the first time it has been documented Hamas shooting civilians as they try to evacuate to safer areas as directed by the IDF. This war crime is continually overlooked by the UN and media sources. It is estimated that potentially thousands of Hamas et al elements are hiding among the tens of thousands of civilians in the north.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israeli army: Hezbollah fired about 170 rockets towards the country in the past 24 hours
IAF conduced air strikes across S Lebanon, the Bekaa Valley and southern Beirut including the port area.
Israel’s Northern Command reports that Hezbollah only has 30% of its rockets and launchers remaining and has lost 2,000 of its terrorists since October 8th last year. The Northern Command added that just a few more weeks of operations in Lebanon are required to accomplish goals that will allow northern Israeli residents to return home in safety.
***
IAF revealed intelligence on a Hezbollah financial site that has not been hit—where Hezbollah has a much as a half billion dollars in gold and cash—in Hassan Nasrallah’s bunker. The bunker is located directly under Al-Sahel Hospital in the heart of Beirut.
In spite of Israel stating that it will not attack the bunker, IAF spokesman said the Israeli Air Force is keeping an eye on the facility, and he urged Lebanese authorities and international organizations to stop Hezbollah from utilizing “the money for terror and to attack Israel.”
Lebanese have begun to evacuate the hospital.
***
The Saudi Al-Hadath channel, citing its “sources,” reports that officials at the Iranian embassy in Beirut were involved in the assassination attempt on Prime Minister Netanyahu. According to the sources, the Israeli investigation has revealed Iranian involvement in launching a drone targeting Netanyahu’s residence.
(Open Source Intel on X)
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
The Israeli army spokesperson Daniel Hagari confirmed that Israel carried out the airstrike in Syria today, saying it targeted “the head of Hezbollah’s financial arm responsible for funneling cash from Iran to Hezbollah.” Syrian media are reporting a car explosion in Al-Mezzah neighborhood of Damascus, where the Iranian embassy is located
***
According to Israeli Media; Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has been talks over the last few weeks with both Iranian and Hezbollah officials, urging them not to launch further attacks from Syrian Territory or commit any action which could lead to additional Israeli strikes. Al-Assad fears that a war between Israel and Iran could result in his removal from power.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Evidence that Sinwar/Hamas exploited US and international opposition to Israeli attacks and leveraged that along with hostages in the war is not unexpected. Understand - the US state dept knew full well it was contributing to this. Honey Badger Netanyahu knew this tactic well and ignored it - throwing Hamas (and later Hezbollah) plans into a tail spin.
Lebanon has been experiencing a financial crisis over the past couple years, and the exposing of the vast stores of wealth in Hezbollah bunkers is bound to exacerbate the tensions between Hezbollah and other ethnic/religions groups who view Hezbollah as the primary cause of the troubles. Half billion in dollar equivalents would go a long way to keep the power on in the country for instance. This financial divide will only get worse as Lebanon begins to face rebuilding after the war is over, with hundreds of millions of dollars in damage.
I’ve noted the potential and now growing internal resistance to Hezbollah. Exposing a half billion sitting in a vault may just trigger the Lebanese govt to confiscate it for the nation and deny Hezbollah’s use. Since it is under a civilian hospital, there is plenty of justification for the action as Hezbollah’s only action to prevent it is to attack the Lebanese govt - triggering more internal hostility towards it.
Syria’s Assad is apparently getting cold feet in his support of Iran and Hezbollah. He already has his hands full between the ongoing civil war, ISIS resurgence and Iranian militias staring up US/coalition forces in the east.
Finally, the world is still waiting for the big show of the Israeli response to Iran’s Oct 1 missile attack. Iran’s attempted assassination of netanyahu may well have put nuclear and oil facilities back on the target list. The US response still suggests Israel is going after some pretty sensitive targets. Nations in the region are already looking at Iranian responses. The region is bracing for Iran’s expanding the conflict. Time will tell as will the extent and success of the Israeli operation.
Iran –
Iran will hold the United States accountable for the coming Israeli attack.
The Iranian Embassy at the United Nations in New York City said this afternoon, “President Biden’s remarks in Berlin on Friday, stating he knows “when and how” Israel will attack Iran, amount to “tacit approval and explicit support” for Israel’s “illegal aggressive actions” against Iran.
They added, “The United States will bear full responsibility for its role in any Israeli act of aggression against Iran.”
OBSERVATION - Not the first threat by Iran towards the US. However, this threat comes after the US lit the houthi’s up with the big bombs dropped by B2. The threat to hit all U.S. Bases in the Middle East is a serious on and would likely cause a US counter strike. Iran may see itself soon fighting a two (or more) front war and may find out it wasn’t too smart to poke the bear. Additionally, threats continue to spill out to other gulf nations - particularly against their oil production assets. Some, like the saudi’s have missiles of their own that they may fire towards Iran as well as air force strike capabilities. Should Iran go down the road of attacking locations in the region, things could tailspin out of control rapidly. FAFO in play here.
Iraq -
Iraq has announced it has killed the leader of ISIS in Iraq. I’ve not seen further details.
Thanks, Godzilla.
There's a reason our enemies are working to destabilize the US - using everything from endless government corruption or flooding our borders with illegals... to dumbing down government employees with WOKE/DEI idiots.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Oct 20, 2024
Russia, China and Iran are intent on fanning divisive narratives to divide Americans ahead of the Nov. 5 U.S. elections and may consider fomenting violence after voters go to the polls, U.S. intelligence officials said on Tuesday.
The officials, briefing reporters on U.S. election security, said foreign actors could consider physical threats and violence, and are highly likely to conduct disinformation operations to create uncertainty and undermine the election process.
“Foreign actors, particularly Russia, Iran and China, remain intent on fanning divisive narratives to divide Americans and undermine Americans’ confidence in the U.S. democratic system. These activities are consistent with what these actors perceive to be in their interests, even as their tactics continue to evolve,” said one official from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI)
That official said influence actors, “particularly from Russia, Iran and China,” have learned from previous U.S. elections and are better prepared to exploit opportunities to stoke unrest.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/election/2024/10/22/id/1185040/
OBSERVATION - This warning, combined with the hundreds of thousands (millions) of illegals from the ME and China suggests that there is huge potential for mega disruptions beyond the Antifa/BLM riots of 2020. The potential for pre election actions is waning since there is now less than two weeks left to go. Post election action is a greater concern, potentially triggering regime efforts that could utilize violence provoked from hostile nations to essentially overturn the election if trump wins.
***
(FO) Stop Cop Nation’s “day of action” is scheduled for today. The movement seeks “to bring an end to police violence against Black and brown communities and to stop the construction of cop city projects all across the so-called United States.”
Organizers are publicizing the shift from “Stop Copy City” in Atlanta, Georgia to “Stop Cop Nation,” a nationwide direct action movement to stop the construction of law enforcement training facilities.
Stop Cop Nation seeks to bring Black Lives Matter, the Palestine liberation movement, and other indigenous and liberation movements together to protest law enforcement militarization and capitalist oppression.
OBSERVATION - Forward Observer assesses the action today saying this “day of action” looks mostly like protests, panel discussions, and education events, as opposed to violent direct action that happened during the Atlanta, Georgia-based Stop Cop City campaign
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) conducted a second set of drills with the Italian carrier ITS Cavour (CVH-550), this time in U.S. Central Command on Friday.
Meanwhile, USS Harry S. Truman (CVN-75) is in the North Sea and conducting drills with Standing NATO Maritime Group 1 (SNMG1), will soon conduct joint drills with the Royal Navy’s Prince of Wales Carrier Strike Group, formally known as the U.K. Carrier Strike Group and the Norwegian Armed Forces.
OBSERVATIONS - With tensions in the ME one has to question having our CSGs out playing elsewhere.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****
***
Warning for discernment over the next couple weeks. PR and propaganda will be spinning intensely with reports/stories of this or that in each campaign. Voter influencing and demoralizing are top of the list. Key polls to watch are state level with secondary to national polls. Common sense says they are skewed to influence as well, but are generally being forced to shift to more accurately depict what people think. Further great caution on using the betting “polls” as absolutes.
***
Labour activists from Britain have come to the US to campaign for harris.
Trump’s campaign has made a complaint to the FEC saying the “illegal foreign assistance” is a “another feeble attempt in a long line of anti-American election interference”
Prime Minister Keir Starmer has tried to play down the row, telling the BBC Labour has long sent volunteers to US elections
OBSERVATION - Some of the brits claim that they’ve done this in the past. So, what. This is foreign assistance and interference in OUR election and they have no inherent rights to be here campaigning for anyone.
Biden / Harris Watch –
While harris tries to bash trump over schedule changes - claiming exhaustion - harris has dropped off the radar for couple days to “prepare” for some media interviews. This has left some scratching their heads - with the campaigns coming into the final stretch she is isolating for interview preps?
China –
The Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Higgins (DDG 76) and Royal Canadian Navy Halifax-class frigate HMCS Vancouver (FFH 331) conducted a routine Taiwan Strait transit on Oct. 20 (local time) through waters where high-seas freedom of navigation and overflight apply in accordance with international law.
NOTE - this transit seems to be timed as a response to recent Chinese efforts to intimidate Taiwan via ‘blockade’ exercise and live fire events.
North/South Korea –
Reports suggest North Korea has sent fighter pilots to Russia to potentially assist in the Ukraine war, amid shortages of Russian pilots according to Newsweek. South Korean media indicated that North Korean pilots were dispatched to Vladivostok ahead of ground troop deployment.
S Korea has also sent a message to Moscow encouraging them to stop the effort to integrate NK troops into the fight in Ukraine.
SK has also warned that should the integration of NK forces continue, they may start sending Ukraine military aid and assistance.
Russia -
*****
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping have discussed the Ukraine war and other global issues at a meeting on the sidelines of the 16th annual BRICS Summit being held in the Russian city of Kaza, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has confirmed. Peskov hailed the bilateral meeting as “very open” and “constructive.”
***
(ISW). Georgia’s Oct. 26 parliamentary elections will likely be one of the country’s most significant elections since its independence and present the Kremlin opportunities to derail Georgia’s long-term Euro-Atlantic integration efforts and reestablish Russian influence.
The election outcome will likely determine whether Georgia abandons its longstanding policy of aligning with the West and instead deepens economic and political ties with the Kremlin in line with the pro-Kremlin positions the ruling Georgian Dream party has increasingly taken.
The Kremlin will likely attempt to leverage the ruling Georgian Dream party’s increasingly pro-Russian narratives that justify Russian violence against the sovereignty and territorial integrity of post-Soviet countries such as Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine. Georgian Dream has increasingly positioned itself as favoring the Kremlin, explicitly promoting enhanced Russia-Georgia bilateral ties while gradually distancing the country from its long-standing pro-Western trajectory.
Economic Impact –
Next week, the U.S. will tighten anti-Russian sanctions, according to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. The new measures will target intermediaries in third countries supplying critical military components to Russia.
European diplomats plan to resume discussions on tightening economic sanctions against Russian energy, once the EU presidency passes from Hungary to Poland in January 2025.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 40-60s with scattered showers in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia launched 1767 Shahed-type strike drones in last 30 days.
Also for the first time Ukrainian General staff reported 165 glide bombs(KAB, FAB with gliding module) were dropped on a single day, with 117 daily average since the beginning of September
Russia has launched a series of large attacks south of Pokrovsk to capture key terrain and highway access. This is building into one of the biggest fights in months.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
According to several sources, Ukrainian units have conducted counterattacks near Zelenyi Shlyakh in the Kursk region, and encircled a group of Russian forces that likely overstretched their attacks.
Bakhmut / Chasiv Yar -
Chaziv Yar months ago was one of the biggest battlefields as Russia was able to seize on poorly coordinated troop rotations in and around Bakhmut to press forward with a breakthrough. Now, many many months later, Chaziv Yar is still under Ukraine control and Russia attacks have failed to exploit their initial successes.
Outlook —
Russia increasing armored attacks as earlier indicated, stressing Ukraine defenses on the southern/western flank of the Russian Pokrovsk salient/axis. If captured, Russia could place even greater stress on the defense of Pokrovsk.
Continued growth in the use of Shahed drones and glide bombs is being noted. Of the two, glide bombs have had the most devastating effect where used. However, it appears that Russia is using them in secondary areas more than along their primary attack zones. Kharkiv has received the brunt of these bombs while their offensive actions have stalled out and show no evidence of regaining any traction soon.
Watching Russian efforts in the Pokrovsk region.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- SoS Blinken met with Netanyahu yesterday.
- Growing internet rumblings that the source of the classified document leaks is Ariane Tabatabai.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
According to Ynet; during his visit yesterday to Israel, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken asked Prime Minister Netanyahu to “Decrease the Scale” of their planned retaliatory strike against Iran, with Defense Minister Gallant stating that U.S. support following the strike will provide a boost to regional deterrence.
Israeli media: “The army has completed its preparations for an attack on Iran and raised the alert level in air defense systems.”
Unconfirmed reports that Israel estimates that Iran will respond immediately if attacked.
Israel has refused to release Yahya Sinwar’s body until the hostages have been returned.
According to a U.S. Defense Official; the deployment of a second Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) Battery to Israel is being considered, alongside the stationing of additional American troops and defensive assets in the country.
***
RUMINT. The FBI and Defense Intelligence Agency are reported to be Investigating the Office of Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations. Two suspects that are floating around the inter webs are Christopher Maier and even more strongly, Ariane Tabatabai who is the chief of staff of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations.
Pentagon Press Secretary, Major General Pat Ryder has officially denied reports from several media outlets yesterday that Ariane Tabatabai, was a “Subject of Interest”. However, that hasn’t dropped her off the radar screen. In Oct. 2023, she faced credible allegations she was spying for Iran. She is of Iranian descent and has close personal and family ties to the IRGC. She has had documented communications prior to her job in the govt with IRGC leaders.
OBSERVATION - Tabatabai is one of many Iranian linked govt employees that are burrowed deeply into the DoD and intelligence alphabet agencies. Congressional republicans have raised red flags over their appointments and security access over the past year, but were summarily ignored by the regime. The fact that she has such access to Sr IRGC leadership by itself should be disqualifying for her to hold her position.
RELATED - National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby said the Biden administration does not expect further leaks, after classified documents analyzing Israeli military preparations were leaked on Telegram. Kirby said the Biden administration has spoken to Israel about the leaked classified documents.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
IDF continuing to tighten the loop around Hamas in N Gaza.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah’s biggest Christian ally has broken ties with the terrorist organization. This division could also create new political equations within the Christian community, as the Christian leadership will now have the opportunity to pursue its own agenda independent of Hezbollah. Along with this, Hezbollah’s relations with other religious groups such as Shia, Sunni and Druze communities may also weaken, which is likely to increase political instability in the country.
Following a request yesterday by the director of the Al-Sahel General Hospital, who called on reporters to come to the hospital for a tour to prove that a Hezbollah bunker was not beneath the Hospital; a large group of Lebanese reporters arrived at the hospital yesterday, but found that a door which was referred to by the Arab spokesman for the Israel Defense Force, as an entrance to the bunker, was locked and being guarded by several armed men. Several reporters from LBCI sent a message to Hezbollah’s media representative, requesting entry through the door, but were denied.
IAF continued to dismantle Hezbollah ammo dumps, rocket facilities and financial institutions across lebanon with particularly heavy strikes on Beirut and Tyre.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
An Israeli raid targeted the town of Tfail overnight with reports of casualties
———WEST BANK——————————-
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The Islamic Resistance in Iraq: We attacked for the second time a vital target in the Golan Heights using drones
Israeli army spokesman: Air force intercepts drone in Syrian airspace launched from east
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
The Saudi Al-Hadath channel, citing its “sources,” reports that officials at the Iranian embassy in Beirut were involved in the assassination attempt on Prime Minister Netanyahu. According to the sources, the Israeli investigation has revealed Iranian involvement in launching a drone targeting Netanyahu’s residence.
(Open Source Intel on X)
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Israel’s attacks on Hezbollah financial network is being assessed as causing substantial difficulties for the terrorists. Israel is also playing the Hezbollah has all the money angle as a way to turn Lebanese people against them. The reveal of the bunker under the hospital, now apparently confirmed to the extent that there is a guarded metal door right where Israel said there would be is not playing well for Hezbollah. Lebanon is needing money to handle the basics for the country, now facing additional costs with fall out from the war. A half billion in currency and gold would go a long way towards filling that need. So the question is how long will the Lebanese govt wait before confiscating those assets?
Blinken continued the losing talk to Netanyahu - please don’t bomb Iran, stop destroying hezbollah and Hamas and allow Hamas to rebuild their forces. I don’t know why he wasted the jet fuel flying to Israel to pass that message.
With the campaign against Hamas and Hezbollah moving forward, the spotlight remains focused on Israel’s response to the Oct 1 missile attack by Iran. With the Iranian supported assassination attempt via a drone strike on Netanyahu, it appear that all is back in play. Timing is up to Netanyahu and the closer it gets to the election day in the US, the greater the political computations come in.
The reports of an ‘immediate’ response from Iran may have some legitimacy given the rapid deployment of a THAAD battery and the potential deployment of a second. But just how immediate is immediate? For both previous attacks, the delay was measured in weeks. For them to respond in the days time frame, it means that rockets are present and ready to fire almost as I type. This would be a risky posture given that Israel is likely to target missile launch and related facilities in the strike - disrupting the ‘immediate’ nature of any response.
For now, it is a waiting game.
Iraq -
Iraqi Prime Minister Muhammad al-Sudani announced the assassination of the leader of ISIS in Iraq
Syria -
Iran-backed militias targeted the Conoco military base in Deir ez-Zur, eastern Syria, with several rockets
In response to the attack, the international coalition aircraft targeted militia sites near the town of Khasham, east of Deir Ezzor, with a raid.
Thanks, Godzilla.
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