CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Oct 20, 2024
Maintaining MODERATE threat as there are currently no significant indicators of impending violence. This may well change after the elections, so enjoy the next few weeks.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Oct 20, 2024
Threat status up dated as the nation approaches election day. Maintaining HIGH conditions.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
The Biden administration rang up a budget deficit topping $1.8 trillion in fiscal 2024, up more than 8% from the previous year and the third highest on record, the Treasury Department said Friday.
Even with a modest surplus in September, the shortfall totaled $1.833 trillion, $138 billion higher than a year ago. The only years the U.S. has seen a great deficit were 2020 and 2021 when the government poured trillions into spending associated with the Covid-19 pandemic.
The deficit came despite record receipts of $4.9 trillion, which fell well short of outlays of $6.75 trillion.
Government debt has swelled to $35.7 trillion, an increase of $2.3 trillion from the end of fiscal 2023.
OBSERVATION - This boat anchor is going to finally come due - likely when the “Great Reset” hits and the American people will be able to do nothing about it. All deliberate by the deep state assets of the WEF/Globalists.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
**** Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****
***
At a rally for Kamala Harris, recording artist Lizzo said something that was supposed to help her chosen candidate.
“When harris wins she’ll turn the US into Detroit. “
Epic Facepalm
Biden / Harris Watch –
Harris trying to portray Trump as physically and mentally incapable of office due to their view of ‘exhaustion’ on the campaign trail However, harris was only able to remain on the stage at a rally yesterday for a little under 7 minutes. Trump OTOH put in 17 hour days actively campaigning.
Also, observers are noting harris’ behavior at rallies, suggesting that she may well be at least ‘buzzed’ if not actually drunk
Cyber attacks/warfare – Moderate ALERT as of Oct 20, 2024
RUMINT - 3 national security “sources” have reportedly confirmed that a nationwide 9/11 style cyberattack against America is widely expected by the intelligence agencies on (or near) Election Day.
OBSERVATION - A cyber attack of this nature has been warned about for many months now. I’ve not seen any further confirmation of this warning on any of my other feelers but given the current state of the politics and the global turmoil with several nations with cyber assault capable elements (Iran, China, Russia) such an attack could throw the processing of the election results into turmoil.
Illegal Immigration –
Panama’s Ministry of Public Security has revealed that the number of Venezuelan migrants crossing the Darien Gap surged by 80 percent in September following the post-election crackdown in Venezuela and the suspension of humanitarian group Doctors Without Borders (MSF).
OBSERVATION - Signs of another surge trying to form, not only from Venezuelans but others as well.
China –
China involved in brokering an palestinian agreement on ruling Gaza post war - See Israel below
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 40-60s with scattered showers in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 31 of 49 Shahed-type strike drones overnight, tracking of 13 lost, 2 drones left for Belarus. Also Russian army launched 2 Iskander-M missiles. Targeted region appears to be western Ukraine.
According to the Russian Defense Ministry, air defense destroyed 110 drones overnight. 43 over the Kursk region, 27 over Lipetsk, 18 over Oryol, 8 over Nizhny Novgorod, 7 over Belgorod, 6 over Bryansk, and one over the Moscow region (Ramenskoye). It appears there was at least one successful strike as smoke was observed rising after explosions in Dzerzhinsk of Nizhniy Novgorod region
Russia continues to press ground attacks in Kursk and the Donbas fronts, with high casualties and minimal if any advances.
Outlook —
The fight in eastern Ukraine continues as it has been. Russia eking out small gains at high personnel and equipment losses. The growing evidence of N Korean forces training for incorporation into Russian military formations now suggests NK is trying to form up several brigade sized elements in Russia.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Russia pouring a lot of money into the Moldovan elections in an effort to prevent the nation from moving more towards the EU and away from Russia.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Highly classified documents produced by US intelligence leaked to an Iranian Telegraph channel.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
CNN report: An investigation has been opened in the US following the leak of classified intelligence documents from the Pentagon regarding Israel’s preparations for a response in Iran. The leak occurred on Friday when the Middle East Spectator Telegram channel claimed it had received documents about Israel’s strike preparations from a source within the US intelligence community. This Telegram channel is known for publishing pro-Iranian propaganda, and its associated Twitter account states that its operators are based in Iran.
“Middle East Spectator” claims: We are open source news archives. We thought the documents were running on Telegram. We do not know the identity of the leaker and reject attempts by the American and Israeli media to intimidate our reporters”
The two documents released were prepared in recent days by the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, which is responsible for analyzing images and information collected by American spy satellites. The documents, which offer interpretations of satellite imagery, provide insight into a potential strike by Israel on Iran in the coming days. US officials have implied that the documents are authentic
IT SHOULD BE NOTED - that these documents are not Israeli plans for the attack, but US intel collected against Israel surveilling its preparations for the attack and the analysis of that intel.
U.S. Department of Defense and FBI is reportedly investigating to determine the source of the leaked. Unconfirmed reports suggest that it is believed the documents were likely to have been leaked by a member of the U.S. Military; similar to the leak of several documents on the war in Ukraine which occurred in April of 2023, which was linked to a Airman in the Massachusetts Air National Guard.
OBSERVATION - The leak is bad enough, but to be spying that intently on Israel is a whole other level.
***
Hamas has declared that Israeli hostages will not be released until Israel halts its military operations in Gaza and withdraws its forces from the besieged territory. Khalil Al-Hayya, deputy chief of Hamas in Gaza and the group’s chief negotiator, made the statement on Friday, as the conflict between Hamas and Israel continues to escalate.
***
More than a dozen Palestinian factions—including bitter rivals Fatah and Hamas—recently signed a national unity deal aimed at maintaining Palestinian control over the Gaza Strip after the war with Israel ends. Known as the Beijing Declaration, the deal, negotiated by China, lays the groundwork for an interim national reconciliation government to rule post-war Gaza.
The Beijing Declaration has several major objectives: (1) creating an interim Palestinian national unity government for Gaza and the West Bank, (2) unifying Palestinian institutions, and (3) electing a new Palestinian National Council. The agreement leaves out crucial details, including whether Hamas will recognize Israel’s right to exist.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who said the agreement was “dedicated to the great reconciliation and unity of all 14 [Palestinian] factions,” outlined a three-step plan for post-war Gaza: (1) promoting a lasting ceasefire, (2) upholding the principle of “Palestinians governing Palestine,” and (3) recognizing an independent Palestinian state. An official Chinese statement included a commitment to “the establishment of an independent Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital.” President Xi Jinping additionally called for an international peace conference aimed at achieving Palestine’s “full” membership in the United Nations.
Middle East expert Tahani Mustafa believes the Beijing Declaration will fail because Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas is opposed to sharing power with Hamas. “The biggest obstacle so far has been Mahmoud Abbas and his absolute reluctance to relinquish in any way his monopoly on power. . . . It would mean Fatah losing its hegemony over the last Palestinian political institution it controls,” she said.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Hundreds of Hamas and affiliated terrorists surrendered in N Gaza after Israel gave an ultimatum to surrender or die.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The ongoing conflict between the Iranian-backed Lebanese terrorist group and Israel has exacerbated sectarian tensions within Lebanon. This escalation has led to significant internal displacement, further straining relations between Lebanon’s diverse religious communities, which include Sunni and Shia Muslims, various Christian sects and the Druze community. As the conflict intensifies, the internal divisions within Lebanon’s fragile societal mosaic become more pronounced, creating further instability in the country.
https://allisrael.com/hezbollah-s-conflict-with-israel-fuels-rising-sectarian-tensions-in-lebanon
***
Arab sources are announcing tonight that a recent air strike IDF has killed in southern Lebanon a senior commander of the Radwan force named Bassel Mustafa Shukr. According to the publications, Bassel was one of the commanders of Hezbollah’s elite unit
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israeli raid targets Al-Mushrifah on the Lebanese-Syrian border
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Al Qaeda calls on Hamas to release the Israeli hostages.
The announcement was made yesterday by Abu Walid al-Masri, a senior advisor and father-in-law of Saif al-Adel, the leader of Al-Qaeda.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
The classified document leak is going to tank any remaining Israeli trust in the US govt. The leaked documents primarily focus on the Israeli preparations and exercised in preparation for the attack and are NOT documents provided by Israel to the US. They do not divulge targets or timing.
What is damaging is the identification of the attack method Israel appears to be planning to use - air launched ballistic missiles for starters. These are similar in concept to the Russian Х-47 Kinzhal hypersonic air-launched ballistic missile being used in the Ukraine. The Israeli versions of these missiles are reportedly more powerful and significantly more accurate.
Second key leakage was reporting of air refueling training to get the airframes to launch positions. These are potential warning indicators for Iran to be alerted to the start of the attack.
Some are trying to down play the leak on some low level operator in the agency, possibly military. Lets not forget that 0bama and biden have allowed Iranian sympathetic employees into the intel community, so the leaker may only be a patsy for someone higher up.
The leak gives Israel even more right to keep DC in the dark. Additionally, the dedication of US intel resources to so closely observer Israeli planning and operations doesn’t foster trust either.
IMHO, the whole affair as it is currently panning out indicates the US is not for Israel and the timing of the leak shows support towards Iran and the islamic terrorists in the region.
Big question now is what affect is this leak going to have on Israel’s target set and timing? It may now delay action against Iran until after the US elections. Some political pundits go as far as the leak was designed to delay the attack so as not to mess around with the Democrats Muslim vote in Michigan and elsewhere.
One other new factor that has popped up that will literally blow up in Iran’s face. Iran attempted to assassinate Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu by directing targeting his private residence with a drone. This attack provides Israel with all the legitimacy to target the residence of the Islamic Republic Supreme Leader’s residence or hidey hole.
N Gaza operations are accelerating the take down of Hamas et al. Hundreds of terrorists raised the white flag and surrendered yesterday after the surrender or die ultimatum. The loss os Sinwar and continued pounding by IDF forces have demoralize the terrorists.
Now big money is being offered to gazans for the release of live hostages. This may result in the freeing of many of the dozens still believed to be in captivity.
Hezbollah continues to be hammered in the south while IAF airstrikes have been reduced in the north. Beirut is still getting hammered almost daily, but not with the same intensity of a couple weeks ago when Nazarallah was taken out. I noted that the reduction in air strikes may well be associated with preparations for the assault on Iran.
Israel’s ground process appears to be very slow, but that is largely due to Israel ensuring that any Hezbollah bunker/tunnels etc are destroyed and captured military materials removed. Hezbollah is still avoiding decisive engagements, breaking contact where possible
Iran –
Iranian Foreign Minister says we have identified the targets that we will bomb in Israel if we are attacked. Israel will receive appropriate response to any attack on Iran
Misc of Note –
Gold and Silver prices skyrocketed to new highs Friday. Gold now within striking distance of $2800/oz and silver gaining over 10% ($4+ per oz) Commonly, prices increase when the dollar is weak or there are concerns over international stability. The latter is the only comment I’ve seen regarding this spike. This may be a growing concern over the pending Israeli strike on Iran combined with uncertainties in the political realm. The size of the increase was impressive.
IDK if the timing is associated with the leakage of the classified documents on Israel’s preparations to attack Iran or not. Timelines are fairly parallel.
Those in the metals markets are looking at something serious happening. We will see next week if profit taking kicks in and takes the edge off the gains, or if they will continue up.
IDK if the timing is associated with the leakage of the classified documents on Israel’s preparations to attack Iran or not. Timelines are fairly parallel.
Those in the metals markets are looking at something serious happening. We will see next week if profit taking kicks in and takes the edge off the gains, or if they will continue up.
Biden's goons leaking information against a friend - and FOR the benefit of enemies of the US is almost the act of a traitor on Biden's part - IF Biden was running the country...
What a mess.
Maybe Biden's puppet masters are trying FOR war in order to 'call off elections'? Nah, to drama queenish.. Or just destabilize the country even more? Is that part of the insane choices happening by Biden's people against Israel and for Iran, China and Russia?
I just came across this live feed from CNN.
Video says its been going on for 11 hours.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mJH7nbe3yog
Israel Vs Iran War Live | Iran Attacks Israel Live | Israel Hezbollah War Live | Iran Attack | N18G
408 am in Jerusalem now.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
“It’s very clear that consumers are running out of money. They’re increasingly stressed by inflation and the exhaustion of their pandemic-era savings. When you take a look over the last several years, what you see month after month, everyone talks about, the consumer’s still spending. They might be, but they’re spending less than the growth of inflation,” Storch Advisors CEO Gerald Storch told Fox Bussiness’ Maria Bartiromo on Thursday during an interview.
The longtime retail executive’s ominous warning about consumers stalling this holiday season comes after retail sales showed consumers increased their purchases at retailers last month. However, this is only because of higher prices. In other words, consumers are spending more but receiving less.
OBSERVATION - People know in their pocket books things suck and their budgets continually shrink.
***
Traditionally, the performance of the home improvement industry has been a very important economic harbinger.
And at this moment the home improvement industry is really struggling.
For example, True Value has been doing so poorly that it was finally forced to file for bankruptcy…
Home Depot has been dumping millions of square feet of warehouse space. They wouldn’t be doing this if they thought that the economy would be turning around any time soon.
Another giant in the home improvement industry, PPG, has decided the time has come for mass layoffs…
PPG — a global manufacturer of paints, coatings, and specialty materials — is laying off nearly 2,000 workers as it trims operation costs and sells off a chunk of its architectural business.
OBSERVATION - I’ve been pointing out for a number of years now that the housing industry is one of the key indicators of the health of the economy. These aspects of the housing market are not looking good and reflect the overall lack of funds available to the consumer. Contrary to regime and associated sources, the economy is not doing well.
***
Silver prices soared by over 6% last week, breaking through the crucial $33.6 per ounce mark and sending shockwaves through global markets. The surge has put five major U.S. banks at risk of massive losses, potentially in the billions, due to their heavy short positions in the precious metal.
According to data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the open interest in silver futures contracts has reached a staggering 141,580 contracts, each representing 5,000 ounces of silver. This translates to a total of 707,900,000 ounces – nearly equivalent to a year’s worth of global silver production.
With silver prices surging by $1.84 per ounce, these short positions are now underwater by an estimated $1.3 billion. Sources close to the matter report that gold futures are experiencing a similar trend, with paper shorts down over $1.5 billion.
The scale of this short position is particularly alarming given that it is reportedly concentrated among just five U.S. banks. Industry analysts are questioning how such a small group of institutions could take on a short position representing an entire year’s worth of global silver mining output.
https://www.jpost.com/business-and-innovation/precious-metals/article-825207
RELATED - With Friday’s new 12-year high closing price, silver has chewed through minor resistance at $32, a level first reached this past May. Silver is now set up to rocket higher like it did in 2020 for one all-important reason. The demand for physical metal is gaining the upper hand over the short sellers in the paper market attempting to ‘tamp down’ the price. Inevitably physical trumps paper because a real thing is more valuable and useful than just a promise to deliver a real thing at some future date
https://kingworldnews.com/james-turk-says-50-silver-is-days-or-weeks-away-not-months/
OBSERVATIONS - NOTE as of this morning, prices are continuing to climb.
I posted about the substantial jump in gold and silver prices last week. Seems that the fight between ‘paper’ metals (gold and silver) and physical metal has shifted to the physical. Still looking for a more clear explanation, but the dots I’m connecting (and would welcome other input) is the reflection that in this case, 5 major banks bet the farm on shorts, in an effort to diffuse greater effects from the economy in general and those efforts are now no longer keeping prices down.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Scale of military airlift to Israel is seen by observers to exceed the necessary for the deployment of a THAADs battery and has continued at a high pace following operational deployment of the unit. The US THAAD air-defense system is now fully operational in Israel.
SEE Israel below for more details.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****
***
Dominion Voting Systems has issued a chilling warning to conservatives just weeks before the all-important presidential election.
In a post on the X platform, the company said that it was “closely monitoring” claims that its machines may be compromised.
“Dominion is closely monitoring claims around the Nov. 2024 election and strongly encourages use of verified, credible sources of info,” the post says.
“We remain fully prepared to defend our company & our customers against lies and those who spread them.”
OBSERVATION - Company successfully launched a number of defamation lawsuits over 2020 and now is trying to bully opponents in the lead up to this election. However, if rigging comes to the forefront again, and trump wins anyway, they could find themselves in deep doo-doo as there has been a lot of other investigations over the past four years that clearly demonstrate the security claims of the machines is weak to nonexistent.
***
Trump’s ‘work’ at a Pennsylvania McDonalds caused a melt down not only of the internet but the left in general. It totally stripped away their narrative that trump was this evil ogre set on the path to humanity’s destruction.
I had to laugh and applaud trump - the action was a political masterstroke and was the recovery of something political campaigns have lost - especially this cycle - a good dose of humor.
Of course the left melted down, they had no counter for it.
Biden / Harris Watch –
harris and the democrats are massively outspending trump, but getting very little return on their dollar. her ‘message’ keeps getting washed out by her statements in recent interviews and other speeches.
BTW, her telling Christians that they were not welcome at her rally, when similar happened at a JD Vance event - he welcomed them.
Now practicing witches are getting very vocal for their support of harris. Hmmm
Cyber attacks/warfare – Moderate ALERT as of Oct 20, 2024
(The Epoch Times)—The FBI and a federal agency dedicated to cybersecurity issued a warning on Oct. 18 about efforts by foreign actors trying to “spread disinformation” regarding the upcoming Nov. 5 election—with just over two weeks ago before the contest.
The FBI and the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) said they have “no information suggesting cyber activity against U.S. election infrastructure” that has “compromised the integrity of voter registration information, prevented an eligible voter from casting a ballot, impacted the integrity of any ballots cast, or disrupted the ability to count votes or transmit unofficial election results in a timely manner.”
But the two agencies said that foreign adversaries still might promote “false or misleading narratives” to sway the election or to undermine American confidence in its election systems and processes.
https://thelibertydaily.com/here-we-go-fbi-cyber-agency-issue-disinformation/
RELATED - The 2024 Homeland Security Critical Infrastructure Conference is planning a “large-scale cybersecurity exercise” on November 5.
OBSERVATION - Focus on disinformation / misinformation. Yep, bad guys likely to incorporate the scheme into their interference of the elections - especially with the growth in the use of AI.
The Nov 5 “exercise” is more concerning - is there something more serious afoot?
Illegal Immigration –
A small village near Cincinnati, Ohio, is being invaded by Mauritanian illegal immigrants, resulting in a 2,800 percent increase over 2022 when just 543 of them arrived in the town. Lockland Village Administrator Doug Wehmeyer said the illegal aliens have plagued the streets with fentanyl and crime. He told Fox News Digital that the illegal immigrants are siphoning resources that should otherwise be used for legal American citizens living in the community.
“You have an apartment building that’s . . . say, 80 units at four people per unit. That’s about 320 people. When you double or maybe even triple that population, the building systems aren’t designed to handle that,” Wehmeyer said. “When you use the utilities, that’s backing up. We have instances where people are going in to take a shower and feces is running out of the drains, filling the bathtubs as it comes from a floor above. That’s compounded probably by the cooking methods that they use, which is a heavy grease-laden process.”
OBSERVATION - This is Cloward and Piven directed at small towns, not the large metro areas it was originally designed for. Overload the welfare system and push for greater govt controls and resources.
China –
Chinese Communist President Xi Jinping ordered the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to ramp up its preparedness for war, as reported by Chinese state media on Saturday, according to Barrons.
Xi’s call for heightened military readiness comes just days after China conducted large-scale military drills surrounding Taiwan.
While visiting a brigade of the PLA Rocket Force on Thursday, Xi Jinping urged troops to “comprehensively strengthen training and preparation for war” and to ensure they possess “solid combat capabilities.”
This latest move demonstrates the growing intensity of China’s military ambitions and its continued focus on Taiwan, which the Chinese Communist Party views as part of its territory.
OBSERVATION - Xi has made other calls for the military to increase its preparations for war over the past couple years. He may be seeing a potential window of opportunity with political chaos breaking out as the election nears and the transition period before Trumps inauguration. Such a diversion could enable China to get a real blockade of Taiwan instigated and in place before the regime in DC can react.
North/South Korea –
Russia’s military cooperation with North Korea does not go against South Korea’s security interests: Russian envoy
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 40-60s with scattered showers in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Big Russian night for drones again. Ukrainian air defense shot down 59 of 119 Shahed-type strike drones overnight, and about 10 are still flying. Drones targeted a number of sites in Eastern Ukraine as well as the Odesa region.
(ISW) Russian forces appear to be further intensifying mechanized activity in western Donetsk Oblast amid initial reports of the start of autumnal muddy ground conditions. Russian and Ukrainian sources have recently reported worsening ground conditions throughout the frontline in Ukraine, and the arrival or the impending arrival of muddy ground conditions are likely prompting the Russian military command to intensify mechanized offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast.
Example - Russian forces attempted to seize the Oskil crossing and split the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ foothold on the left bank. The assault was repelled by joint efforts of the Achilles strike UAV battalion, the “Bureviy” brigade, “Pomsta” border guards, and the 77th Airborne Brigade.
In total, 8 BMPs, 3 tanks were destroyed, 6 BMPs damaged, 21 Russians eliminated, and 26 wounded.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced north of Sudzha in Kursk Oblast and Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Toretsk and Selydove (southeast of Pokrovsk) in Donetsk Oblast.
Outlook —
Over the weekend, Russia has managed a thin salient south of Pokrovsk, as noted above. Other than that, its the same old grind.
Increased armor assaults noted above as well. These are not the fluid, maneuver operations that allowed Ukraine to quickly capture a chunk of Kursk. These assaults are commonly pedal to the metal ‘charges’ that try to quickly drop infantry off for a ground assault. Russian forces have no concept of fire and maneuver and these charges are often foiled by very simple Ukraine defenses of hitting the lead vehicle, causing the column to stop (often bunching the vehicles together) and taking it out with drones and artillery. Often, Russian infantry flees back to get out of the kill zone as quickly as possible. Generally they are not fast enough.
Initial assessments of Russia’s offensive operations of the past year are pretty dismal. Massive losses of men and material have only resulted in an increase of less than 1% territorial gain. There is no evidence that Russia will achieve its goals in the near future either.
I expect Russia to continue the massive drone attacks - very possibly to drain ADA resources for an overdue large ballistic and cruise missile strike(s.
Moldova/Transnistria -
With more than 99 percent of the votes counted, the “yes” vote for EU membership was slightly ahead at 50.28 percent — only 8,000 votes more than the anti-EU camp.
Earlier, Moldovans appeared to have had rejected plans for the former Soviet republic to add its goal of joining the EU to the constitution, preliminary results from 70% of ballots in the country’s referendum showed on Sunday evening.
However, ballots from Moldovans living abroad were counted towards the end, giving the “yes” camp a last-minute push.
A largely agricultural country of around 2.5 million people, Moldova has sought to cut ties with Moscow and move closer to the EU since Russia’s invasion of neighboring Ukraine in 2022.
The former Soviet republic began EU membership talks in June.
Ahead of the referendum, surveys showed around 55% of Moldovans would support the move, while 34% were against it.
The turnout was close to 50%, far higher than the 33% needed for the result to be valid.
Pro-Russian parties had urged people to vote “no” or boycott the vote altogether.
OBSERVATION - Narrow victory. Russia has maintained that Moldova is Russian territory and attempted to force the issue beginning with the Transnistria breakaway. Russia’s war with Ukraine was also designed to cement Russia’s claims by establishing a ‘land bridge’ to the break away republic, setting up a future military takeover/invasion by Russian forces.
Russia stands accused in this election of massive attempts to purchase votes and influence the results.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- The US THAAD air-defense system is now fully operational in Israel.
- IAF targeted Hezbollah financial institutions in Beirut and all across Lebanon.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Israel gave the United States a document last week with its conditions for a diplomatic solution to end the war in Lebanon, Axios reported on Sunday, citing two U.S. officials and two Israeli officials. Israel has demanded its IDF forces be allowed to engage in “active enforcement” to make sure Hezbollah doesn’t rearm and rebuild its military infrastructure close to the border, Axios reported, citing an Israeli official. Israel also demanded its air force have freedom of operation in Lebanese air space, the report added.
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hkk20l7ejx#autoplay
***
The United Nations peacekeeping mission in southern Lebanon said the Israeli army had “deliberately” damaged one of their positions, the latest incident reported by the force.
***
Israel’s security cabinet convened this yesterday. A lot of speculation whether this will be the final session before the order to strike in Iran.
***
At least 23 US military flights landed in Israel in recent days. Some of the early flights were associated with the THAAD air defense deployment, but activity has continued at a high tempo.
So far, 26 US Air Force C-17A Globemaster III’s have been involved in the delivery of THAAD hardware and personnel since 14 October.
Flights by origin:
16 - Fort Cavazos, TX
6 - Anniston, AL
2 - Pope AAF, NC
2 - Biggs AAF, TX
OSINT observers note the levels of activity are exceeding that normally expected from the deployment of a single battery.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah managed to fire about 200 rockets towards Israel yesterday, with very little damage reported and no deaths or injuries.
***
Israel bombed overnight Lebanese branches of an association accused of financing the Iran-backed Hezbollah movement, Lebanese state media reported late Sunday 14 financial targets were hit throughout Beirut. These were branches of Hezbollah’s economic fund - “Al Qard al-Hassan” (loans without interest), which they used to pay their fighters and other associates. Branches in other parts of Lebanon were also hit. Lebanon is largely a currency based economy, no debit or credit cards, so payments were in cash. These attacks were designed to destroy not only the facilities to operate the banks, but more specifically to physically destroy the multiple billions of dollars they had to keep in those branches. Those paper currencies and coins will be very hard to replace as much of the support has to come from Iran. Lack of pay will make many Hezbollah fighters reconsider their employment and other elements supporting the terrorists unlikely to provide goods and material ‘on credit’.
NOTE - The Israeli strike that killed Nazerallah also destroyed hundreds of million in paper currency as well as reportedly melted down a stockpile of gold.
***
IAF also hit ammo storage facilities that Hezbollah used located around the Rafic Hariri international airport in Beirut. Last night, Israel surrounded that airport with a “belt of fire” and destroyed all those weapons that Hezbollah tried to protect by placing it close to civilian airplanes.
Hezbollah warned early in the conflict not to attack those facilities.
***
IDF continues to methodically move northward. They are taking their time because as part of their mission, they are deliberately removing Hezbollah positions and installations, rendering them unusable for any future conflict. One example over the weekend was the destruction of a massive tunnel complex under Ramyeh village in south Lebanon. Village was built on a hill. The tunnels were blown up yesterday, and the village above them is now gone as well.
***
Israeli units known to be operating in S Lebanon -
- IDF 210th Division continued operations in Hasbaya District, southern Lebanon, on October 20.
- IDF 98th Division continued operations in southeastern Lebanon on October 20.
- IDF 91st Division continued operations in southeastern Lebanon on October 20.
- IDF 36th Division continued to advance in Aita al Shaab and Ramyeh in southern Lebanon on October 20.
- 146th Division continued operations in southwestern Lebanon.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Russia and Syrian forces recently completed an exercise near the Israeli border.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
A large number of drones were fired at Israel overnight by Iranian backed militias in Iraq. Most were intercepted and destroyed over Jordan and the few that made it past there were taken out over Syria.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Israel has the hair of the bear and Netanyahu has turned into a honey badger. The persecution of the war against hamas and hezbollah is likely not what the terrorist planners anticipated. They expected israel to react as in the past by succumbing to the external pressures of islamic favoring nations and the US to limit their attacks and accept some sort of a cease fire agreement that lets the terrorists gain a degree of victory. Their placement of facilities, ammo dumps etc, under and within civilian facilities (hospitals, schools, etc) deterred Israel in the past.
Hamas misjudged greatly the Israeli response from Oct 7. Hezbollah quickly repeated the same error. Israel has fought this war with the goal to destroy both entities, and the world in part stands shocked.
A further extension of this is the overnight targeting of Hezbollah’s banking network. This will seriously impair their ability to pay their soldiers as well as other supporter and bills. Not only is Israel denying Hezbollah its rockets and other arms/munitions, it is denying them their financial bloodline. This puts further pressure on Iran, who’s been funneling money into these banks to keep thing propped up. With Israeli interdiction shutting that supply down Hezbollah will be facing increasing difficulties with its fight against Israel.
Little coming out on the investigation into the leaking of two highly classified documents to Iran. I am monitoring rumors that a relatively high placed official in the US intel community of middle east heritage is under suspicion, but no external confirmation.
The ongoing massive airlift to Israel appears above and beyond that normally seen necessary for a THAAD batter deployment. SOMETHING has got the motivator rolling in the regime to get stuff there in a hurry. I’ve seen no word yet on an approval for a second battery, so what else is coming in?
Rumors continue that the Israeli strike is imminent, but that the document leak may have caused some delay so Israel could modify its plans. Conventional OSINT is not providing any further clues and with the leak, Israeli OPSEC is even tighter than usual.
Finally, Gaza continues to be a killing field of hamas terrorists. No clear replacement for Sinwar have been identified or announced. Hundreds of fighters are surrendering in N Gaza, the fight is closing in on the end game. Not a whole lot left intact either, as Hamas burrowed itself so deeply into its human shields and UN facilities, a lot was destroyed. More destroyed as Israel blew up portions of the tunnel networks, destroying overlying civilian buildings. The biggest remaining thing on Israel’s radar is one item that the world continually overlooks - return of the hostages.
Iran –
More threats of massive retaliation for any Israeli strike
OBSERVATION - At this stage I’m wondering just how big of a missile capability Iran has. Both in April and Oct 1, the total number of ballistic missiles seemed to be capped at around 200 range. Does Iran have the capability to launch even more in a barrage or not? While the last barrage fared better than the one in April, Israel is more prepared this time around.
Central / South America General-
CUBA - Noting that the island has faced days of power outages and now is being hit by a Cat 1 Hurricane. Ever since the fall of the Soviet Union, Cuba has been suffering from lack of external support to keep the island functioning.
The threat this poses is that Cuba will be even more desperate and China especially expand its presence on the island in exchange for support to the regime.