Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
“It’s very clear that consumers are running out of money. They’re increasingly stressed by inflation and the exhaustion of their pandemic-era savings. When you take a look over the last several years, what you see month after month, everyone talks about, the consumer’s still spending. They might be, but they’re spending less than the growth of inflation,” Storch Advisors CEO Gerald Storch told Fox Bussiness’ Maria Bartiromo on Thursday during an interview.
The longtime retail executive’s ominous warning about consumers stalling this holiday season comes after retail sales showed consumers increased their purchases at retailers last month. However, this is only because of higher prices. In other words, consumers are spending more but receiving less.
OBSERVATION - People know in their pocket books things suck and their budgets continually shrink.
***
Traditionally, the performance of the home improvement industry has been a very important economic harbinger.
And at this moment the home improvement industry is really struggling.
For example, True Value has been doing so poorly that it was finally forced to file for bankruptcy…
Home Depot has been dumping millions of square feet of warehouse space. They wouldn’t be doing this if they thought that the economy would be turning around any time soon.
Another giant in the home improvement industry, PPG, has decided the time has come for mass layoffs…
PPG — a global manufacturer of paints, coatings, and specialty materials — is laying off nearly 2,000 workers as it trims operation costs and sells off a chunk of its architectural business.
OBSERVATION - I’ve been pointing out for a number of years now that the housing industry is one of the key indicators of the health of the economy. These aspects of the housing market are not looking good and reflect the overall lack of funds available to the consumer. Contrary to regime and associated sources, the economy is not doing well.
***
Silver prices soared by over 6% last week, breaking through the crucial $33.6 per ounce mark and sending shockwaves through global markets. The surge has put five major U.S. banks at risk of massive losses, potentially in the billions, due to their heavy short positions in the precious metal.
According to data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the open interest in silver futures contracts has reached a staggering 141,580 contracts, each representing 5,000 ounces of silver. This translates to a total of 707,900,000 ounces – nearly equivalent to a year’s worth of global silver production.
With silver prices surging by $1.84 per ounce, these short positions are now underwater by an estimated $1.3 billion. Sources close to the matter report that gold futures are experiencing a similar trend, with paper shorts down over $1.5 billion.
The scale of this short position is particularly alarming given that it is reportedly concentrated among just five U.S. banks. Industry analysts are questioning how such a small group of institutions could take on a short position representing an entire year’s worth of global silver mining output.
https://www.jpost.com/business-and-innovation/precious-metals/article-825207
RELATED - With Friday’s new 12-year high closing price, silver has chewed through minor resistance at $32, a level first reached this past May. Silver is now set up to rocket higher like it did in 2020 for one all-important reason. The demand for physical metal is gaining the upper hand over the short sellers in the paper market attempting to ‘tamp down’ the price. Inevitably physical trumps paper because a real thing is more valuable and useful than just a promise to deliver a real thing at some future date
https://kingworldnews.com/james-turk-says-50-silver-is-days-or-weeks-away-not-months/
OBSERVATIONS - NOTE as of this morning, prices are continuing to climb.
I posted about the substantial jump in gold and silver prices last week. Seems that the fight between ‘paper’ metals (gold and silver) and physical metal has shifted to the physical. Still looking for a more clear explanation, but the dots I’m connecting (and would welcome other input) is the reflection that in this case, 5 major banks bet the farm on shorts, in an effort to diffuse greater effects from the economy in general and those efforts are now no longer keeping prices down.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Scale of military airlift to Israel is seen by observers to exceed the necessary for the deployment of a THAADs battery and has continued at a high pace following operational deployment of the unit. The US THAAD air-defense system is now fully operational in Israel.
SEE Israel below for more details.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****
***
Dominion Voting Systems has issued a chilling warning to conservatives just weeks before the all-important presidential election.
In a post on the X platform, the company said that it was “closely monitoring” claims that its machines may be compromised.
“Dominion is closely monitoring claims around the Nov. 2024 election and strongly encourages use of verified, credible sources of info,” the post says.
“We remain fully prepared to defend our company & our customers against lies and those who spread them.”
OBSERVATION - Company successfully launched a number of defamation lawsuits over 2020 and now is trying to bully opponents in the lead up to this election. However, if rigging comes to the forefront again, and trump wins anyway, they could find themselves in deep doo-doo as there has been a lot of other investigations over the past four years that clearly demonstrate the security claims of the machines is weak to nonexistent.
***
Trump’s ‘work’ at a Pennsylvania McDonalds caused a melt down not only of the internet but the left in general. It totally stripped away their narrative that trump was this evil ogre set on the path to humanity’s destruction.
I had to laugh and applaud trump - the action was a political masterstroke and was the recovery of something political campaigns have lost - especially this cycle - a good dose of humor.
Of course the left melted down, they had no counter for it.
Biden / Harris Watch –
harris and the democrats are massively outspending trump, but getting very little return on their dollar. her ‘message’ keeps getting washed out by her statements in recent interviews and other speeches.
BTW, her telling Christians that they were not welcome at her rally, when similar happened at a JD Vance event - he welcomed them.
Now practicing witches are getting very vocal for their support of harris. Hmmm
Cyber attacks/warfare – Moderate ALERT as of Oct 20, 2024
(The Epoch Times)—The FBI and a federal agency dedicated to cybersecurity issued a warning on Oct. 18 about efforts by foreign actors trying to “spread disinformation” regarding the upcoming Nov. 5 election—with just over two weeks ago before the contest.
The FBI and the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) said they have “no information suggesting cyber activity against U.S. election infrastructure” that has “compromised the integrity of voter registration information, prevented an eligible voter from casting a ballot, impacted the integrity of any ballots cast, or disrupted the ability to count votes or transmit unofficial election results in a timely manner.”
But the two agencies said that foreign adversaries still might promote “false or misleading narratives” to sway the election or to undermine American confidence in its election systems and processes.
https://thelibertydaily.com/here-we-go-fbi-cyber-agency-issue-disinformation/
RELATED - The 2024 Homeland Security Critical Infrastructure Conference is planning a “large-scale cybersecurity exercise” on November 5.
OBSERVATION - Focus on disinformation / misinformation. Yep, bad guys likely to incorporate the scheme into their interference of the elections - especially with the growth in the use of AI.
The Nov 5 “exercise” is more concerning - is there something more serious afoot?
Illegal Immigration –
A small village near Cincinnati, Ohio, is being invaded by Mauritanian illegal immigrants, resulting in a 2,800 percent increase over 2022 when just 543 of them arrived in the town. Lockland Village Administrator Doug Wehmeyer said the illegal aliens have plagued the streets with fentanyl and crime. He told Fox News Digital that the illegal immigrants are siphoning resources that should otherwise be used for legal American citizens living in the community.
“You have an apartment building that’s . . . say, 80 units at four people per unit. That’s about 320 people. When you double or maybe even triple that population, the building systems aren’t designed to handle that,” Wehmeyer said. “When you use the utilities, that’s backing up. We have instances where people are going in to take a shower and feces is running out of the drains, filling the bathtubs as it comes from a floor above. That’s compounded probably by the cooking methods that they use, which is a heavy grease-laden process.”
OBSERVATION - This is Cloward and Piven directed at small towns, not the large metro areas it was originally designed for. Overload the welfare system and push for greater govt controls and resources.
China –
Chinese Communist President Xi Jinping ordered the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to ramp up its preparedness for war, as reported by Chinese state media on Saturday, according to Barrons.
Xi’s call for heightened military readiness comes just days after China conducted large-scale military drills surrounding Taiwan.
While visiting a brigade of the PLA Rocket Force on Thursday, Xi Jinping urged troops to “comprehensively strengthen training and preparation for war” and to ensure they possess “solid combat capabilities.”
This latest move demonstrates the growing intensity of China’s military ambitions and its continued focus on Taiwan, which the Chinese Communist Party views as part of its territory.
OBSERVATION - Xi has made other calls for the military to increase its preparations for war over the past couple years. He may be seeing a potential window of opportunity with political chaos breaking out as the election nears and the transition period before Trumps inauguration. Such a diversion could enable China to get a real blockade of Taiwan instigated and in place before the regime in DC can react.
North/South Korea –
Russia’s military cooperation with North Korea does not go against South Korea’s security interests: Russian envoy
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 40-60s with scattered showers in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Big Russian night for drones again. Ukrainian air defense shot down 59 of 119 Shahed-type strike drones overnight, and about 10 are still flying. Drones targeted a number of sites in Eastern Ukraine as well as the Odesa region.
(ISW) Russian forces appear to be further intensifying mechanized activity in western Donetsk Oblast amid initial reports of the start of autumnal muddy ground conditions. Russian and Ukrainian sources have recently reported worsening ground conditions throughout the frontline in Ukraine, and the arrival or the impending arrival of muddy ground conditions are likely prompting the Russian military command to intensify mechanized offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast.
Example - Russian forces attempted to seize the Oskil crossing and split the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ foothold on the left bank. The assault was repelled by joint efforts of the Achilles strike UAV battalion, the “Bureviy” brigade, “Pomsta” border guards, and the 77th Airborne Brigade.
In total, 8 BMPs, 3 tanks were destroyed, 6 BMPs damaged, 21 Russians eliminated, and 26 wounded.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced north of Sudzha in Kursk Oblast and Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Toretsk and Selydove (southeast of Pokrovsk) in Donetsk Oblast.
Outlook —
Over the weekend, Russia has managed a thin salient south of Pokrovsk, as noted above. Other than that, its the same old grind.
Increased armor assaults noted above as well. These are not the fluid, maneuver operations that allowed Ukraine to quickly capture a chunk of Kursk. These assaults are commonly pedal to the metal ‘charges’ that try to quickly drop infantry off for a ground assault. Russian forces have no concept of fire and maneuver and these charges are often foiled by very simple Ukraine defenses of hitting the lead vehicle, causing the column to stop (often bunching the vehicles together) and taking it out with drones and artillery. Often, Russian infantry flees back to get out of the kill zone as quickly as possible. Generally they are not fast enough.
Initial assessments of Russia’s offensive operations of the past year are pretty dismal. Massive losses of men and material have only resulted in an increase of less than 1% territorial gain. There is no evidence that Russia will achieve its goals in the near future either.
I expect Russia to continue the massive drone attacks - very possibly to drain ADA resources for an overdue large ballistic and cruise missile strike(s.
Moldova/Transnistria -
With more than 99 percent of the votes counted, the “yes” vote for EU membership was slightly ahead at 50.28 percent — only 8,000 votes more than the anti-EU camp.
Earlier, Moldovans appeared to have had rejected plans for the former Soviet republic to add its goal of joining the EU to the constitution, preliminary results from 70% of ballots in the country’s referendum showed on Sunday evening.
However, ballots from Moldovans living abroad were counted towards the end, giving the “yes” camp a last-minute push.
A largely agricultural country of around 2.5 million people, Moldova has sought to cut ties with Moscow and move closer to the EU since Russia’s invasion of neighboring Ukraine in 2022.
The former Soviet republic began EU membership talks in June.
Ahead of the referendum, surveys showed around 55% of Moldovans would support the move, while 34% were against it.
The turnout was close to 50%, far higher than the 33% needed for the result to be valid.
Pro-Russian parties had urged people to vote “no” or boycott the vote altogether.
OBSERVATION - Narrow victory. Russia has maintained that Moldova is Russian territory and attempted to force the issue beginning with the Transnistria breakaway. Russia’s war with Ukraine was also designed to cement Russia’s claims by establishing a ‘land bridge’ to the break away republic, setting up a future military takeover/invasion by Russian forces.
Russia stands accused in this election of massive attempts to purchase votes and influence the results.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- The US THAAD air-defense system is now fully operational in Israel.
- IAF targeted Hezbollah financial institutions in Beirut and all across Lebanon.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Israel gave the United States a document last week with its conditions for a diplomatic solution to end the war in Lebanon, Axios reported on Sunday, citing two U.S. officials and two Israeli officials. Israel has demanded its IDF forces be allowed to engage in “active enforcement” to make sure Hezbollah doesn’t rearm and rebuild its military infrastructure close to the border, Axios reported, citing an Israeli official. Israel also demanded its air force have freedom of operation in Lebanese air space, the report added.
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hkk20l7ejx#autoplay
***
The United Nations peacekeeping mission in southern Lebanon said the Israeli army had “deliberately” damaged one of their positions, the latest incident reported by the force.
***
Israel’s security cabinet convened this yesterday. A lot of speculation whether this will be the final session before the order to strike in Iran.
***
At least 23 US military flights landed in Israel in recent days. Some of the early flights were associated with the THAAD air defense deployment, but activity has continued at a high tempo.
So far, 26 US Air Force C-17A Globemaster III’s have been involved in the delivery of THAAD hardware and personnel since 14 October.
Flights by origin:
16 - Fort Cavazos, TX
6 - Anniston, AL
2 - Pope AAF, NC
2 - Biggs AAF, TX
OSINT observers note the levels of activity are exceeding that normally expected from the deployment of a single battery.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah managed to fire about 200 rockets towards Israel yesterday, with very little damage reported and no deaths or injuries.
***
Israel bombed overnight Lebanese branches of an association accused of financing the Iran-backed Hezbollah movement, Lebanese state media reported late Sunday 14 financial targets were hit throughout Beirut. These were branches of Hezbollah’s economic fund - “Al Qard al-Hassan” (loans without interest), which they used to pay their fighters and other associates. Branches in other parts of Lebanon were also hit. Lebanon is largely a currency based economy, no debit or credit cards, so payments were in cash. These attacks were designed to destroy not only the facilities to operate the banks, but more specifically to physically destroy the multiple billions of dollars they had to keep in those branches. Those paper currencies and coins will be very hard to replace as much of the support has to come from Iran. Lack of pay will make many Hezbollah fighters reconsider their employment and other elements supporting the terrorists unlikely to provide goods and material ‘on credit’.
NOTE - The Israeli strike that killed Nazerallah also destroyed hundreds of million in paper currency as well as reportedly melted down a stockpile of gold.
***
IAF also hit ammo storage facilities that Hezbollah used located around the Rafic Hariri international airport in Beirut. Last night, Israel surrounded that airport with a “belt of fire” and destroyed all those weapons that Hezbollah tried to protect by placing it close to civilian airplanes.
Hezbollah warned early in the conflict not to attack those facilities.
***
IDF continues to methodically move northward. They are taking their time because as part of their mission, they are deliberately removing Hezbollah positions and installations, rendering them unusable for any future conflict. One example over the weekend was the destruction of a massive tunnel complex under Ramyeh village in south Lebanon. Village was built on a hill. The tunnels were blown up yesterday, and the village above them is now gone as well.
***
Israeli units known to be operating in S Lebanon -
- IDF 210th Division continued operations in Hasbaya District, southern Lebanon, on October 20.
- IDF 98th Division continued operations in southeastern Lebanon on October 20.
- IDF 91st Division continued operations in southeastern Lebanon on October 20.
- IDF 36th Division continued to advance in Aita al Shaab and Ramyeh in southern Lebanon on October 20.
- 146th Division continued operations in southwestern Lebanon.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Russia and Syrian forces recently completed an exercise near the Israeli border.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
A large number of drones were fired at Israel overnight by Iranian backed militias in Iraq. Most were intercepted and destroyed over Jordan and the few that made it past there were taken out over Syria.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Israel has the hair of the bear and Netanyahu has turned into a honey badger. The persecution of the war against hamas and hezbollah is likely not what the terrorist planners anticipated. They expected israel to react as in the past by succumbing to the external pressures of islamic favoring nations and the US to limit their attacks and accept some sort of a cease fire agreement that lets the terrorists gain a degree of victory. Their placement of facilities, ammo dumps etc, under and within civilian facilities (hospitals, schools, etc) deterred Israel in the past.
Hamas misjudged greatly the Israeli response from Oct 7. Hezbollah quickly repeated the same error. Israel has fought this war with the goal to destroy both entities, and the world in part stands shocked.
A further extension of this is the overnight targeting of Hezbollah’s banking network. This will seriously impair their ability to pay their soldiers as well as other supporter and bills. Not only is Israel denying Hezbollah its rockets and other arms/munitions, it is denying them their financial bloodline. This puts further pressure on Iran, who’s been funneling money into these banks to keep thing propped up. With Israeli interdiction shutting that supply down Hezbollah will be facing increasing difficulties with its fight against Israel.
Little coming out on the investigation into the leaking of two highly classified documents to Iran. I am monitoring rumors that a relatively high placed official in the US intel community of middle east heritage is under suspicion, but no external confirmation.
The ongoing massive airlift to Israel appears above and beyond that normally seen necessary for a THAAD batter deployment. SOMETHING has got the motivator rolling in the regime to get stuff there in a hurry. I’ve seen no word yet on an approval for a second battery, so what else is coming in?
Rumors continue that the Israeli strike is imminent, but that the document leak may have caused some delay so Israel could modify its plans. Conventional OSINT is not providing any further clues and with the leak, Israeli OPSEC is even tighter than usual.
Finally, Gaza continues to be a killing field of hamas terrorists. No clear replacement for Sinwar have been identified or announced. Hundreds of fighters are surrendering in N Gaza, the fight is closing in on the end game. Not a whole lot left intact either, as Hamas burrowed itself so deeply into its human shields and UN facilities, a lot was destroyed. More destroyed as Israel blew up portions of the tunnel networks, destroying overlying civilian buildings. The biggest remaining thing on Israel’s radar is one item that the world continually overlooks - return of the hostages.
Iran –
More threats of massive retaliation for any Israeli strike
OBSERVATION - At this stage I’m wondering just how big of a missile capability Iran has. Both in April and Oct 1, the total number of ballistic missiles seemed to be capped at around 200 range. Does Iran have the capability to launch even more in a barrage or not? While the last barrage fared better than the one in April, Israel is more prepared this time around.
Central / South America General-
CUBA - Noting that the island has faced days of power outages and now is being hit by a Cat 1 Hurricane. Ever since the fall of the Soviet Union, Cuba has been suffering from lack of external support to keep the island functioning.
The threat this poses is that Cuba will be even more desperate and China especially expand its presence on the island in exchange for support to the regime.
Thanks
The paint industry ALWAYS slows down come fall and winter. This isn't much of a surprise although you'd think that what with storm damage down south where the painting season can go on for a couple more months, it might keep going for a bit.
However, I'm sure people are worried more about pulling things together from all the storm damage than painting right now. Lots of fixing up comes first.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics
Discussions that Bill Gates has released wuhan ‘vaccines’ that contain an abortion promoting drug. Most reports coming out of Japan on this.
China –
China held a live-firing exercise from its territory closest to Taiwan one week after it launched a large-scale drill encircling the island.
Chinese military drills off the Taiwanese coast have intensified in recent years as its claims over the self-governed island have grown.
Beijing announced late on Monday that an area around Niushan - an island 105km (66 miles) from Taiwan - will be closed for drills for four hours from 09:00 local time (01:00 GMT) on Tuesday.
Taiwan’s premier Cho Jung-tai said on Tuesday that China should not be conducting such exercises given their threat to regional stability.
“No matter how large the scale of the drill is, they should not be frequent and close to Taiwan,” he told reporters. “This will only cause unnecessary tension.”
Although Taipei has called the drills routine, analysts believe China is likely sending a message given their proximity to Taiwan.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3rlrv1qewqo
OBSERVATION - Program of maintaining pressure on Taiwan while preparing for an eventual action against it.
North/South Korea –
South Korea vows to take ‘phased measures’ in response to North Korea-Russia military cooperation.
South Korea may send military and intelligence personnel to Ukraine in response to North Korea sending troops to Russia, according to Newsweek. These specialists could interrogate captured North Korean soldiers and provide tactical/operational insights.
Russia -
*****
Tuesday’s opening of the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia. For President Vladimir Putin will it will be an opportunity to personally engage with multiple world leaders, including China’s Xi Jinping, India’s Narendra Modi, Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Iran’s Masoud Pezeshkian.
The multipolarity is on, and dedollarization is on everyone’s minds.
Associated Press reported:
“They will all be in the Russian city of Kazan on Tuesday for a meeting of the BRICS bloc of developing economies, defying predictions that the war in Ukraine and an international arrest warrant against Putin would turn him into a pariah.”
Initially, the group was formed by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – but lately it started to rapidly expand.
Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia joined in January; Turkey, Azerbaijan and Malaysia also formally applied, along with a rather large number of other countries who have expressed a desire to join.
Russia sees the meeting as a great success. 36 countries confirmed participation, and of those, more than 20 will send heads of state.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/10/multipolarity-brics-summit-kicks-tomorrow-kazan-russia-36/
OBSERVATION - BRICS is a challenge to the global dominance of the dollar. The founding countries sought other ways around the economic sanctions brought on by the US, so alternative currencies for payment agreements started. This is a growing movement, but is unlikely to replace the dollar any time soon unless there is a serious collapse of the dollar via economic crisis in the US. The US will eventually have to face the completion or the erosion of the dollar support will cause a crash here in the US as well. Rock meet hard place.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 40-60s with scattered showers in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight Russia launched about 60 Shaheds into Ukraine with 42 being shot down. Ten more were lost due to electronic warfare and four flew back to either Belarus or Russia.
Ukrainian drones hit Russian regions overnight. Explosions were reported in Tambov where a distillery (ethanol) plant was hit. Drones have also attacked a thermal power plant and a synthetic rubber plant in the Tula region.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Novosadove village in Donetsk region of Ukraine.
Another ‘large’ armor assault launched by Russia overnight. A total, 7 tanks and 11 BMPs advanced towards the positions of the 46th Air Assault Brigade. Ukrainian units destroyed 2 tanks (one T-90M) and 5 BMPs, while 2 damaged tanks retreated. 28 Russians were eliminated.
Outlook —
No real trends to report. Russia continues to claw some Ukrainian terrain at high costs of men and material. Mud season is becoming more prominent as rains start to return.
Currently the biggest issue is the trading and presence of N Korean forces in Russia and possibly into the war zone.
Europe / NATO General –
John Healey, British Defense Secretary: It is very likely that a transfer of forces from North Korea to Russia has begun
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- IDF continues to close the loop on remaining Hamas elements in N Gaza.
- Israel continued to hit Hezbollah financial resources in Lebanon and Syria.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is currently meeting with the United States Secretary of State Anthony Blinken in Jerusalem
***
Seven Jewish Israelis have been arrested for allegedly carrying out tasks for Iran, including taking photos and gathering information on Israeli army bases, the Justice Ministry says. According to a statement from the State Attorney’s Office, the seven, from Haifa and other northern towns, include a deserter soldier and two minors. The seven allegedly gathered information on the Nevatim and Ramat David airbases, the Israeli army HQ in Tel Aviv, Iron Dome batteries, the Golani training base, and other sites, per the instructions of their Iranian operators. Indictments are expected to be filed against the suspects on Friday, the ministry adds.
***
Channel 13 reports that members of the Israeli Political-Security Cabinet were informed during last night’s meeting, that Israel will soon launch a “Very Significant Attack” inside Iran, but that they would not be notified of its nature in advance; with officials believing that Iran will forcefully respond to the attack.
***
WSJ reports that Sinwar cited pressure from the Israeli opposition and the White House as reasons to reject a hostage deal and hold out for more.
The pressure to stop the war from the side of the U.S. administration and the Israeli progressive left is the reason why the hostages aren’t back!
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
IDF issuing more evacuations orders for N Gaza areas, directing individuals south toward safe areas near Khan Younis.
Palestinian civilians trying to evacuate intense fighting in the northern Gaza Strip are being shot by Hamas terrorists trying to prevent them from leaving, an Israel Defense Forces medic said on Monday.
The IDF said that thousands of Palestinian civilians have adhered to the military’s calls to evacuate Jabaliya amid a renewed military offensive aimed at preventing Hamas from regrouping in the area.
The evacuations were taking place despite the Hamas-run Interior Ministry ordering civilians earlier this month to ignore the instructions to relocate to other safer areas in the Strip.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/hamas-terrorists-shooting/2024/10/22/id/1184947/
OBSERVATIONS - This is not the first time it has been documented Hamas shooting civilians as they try to evacuate to safer areas as directed by the IDF. This war crime is continually overlooked by the UN and media sources. It is estimated that potentially thousands of Hamas et al elements are hiding among the tens of thousands of civilians in the north.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israeli army: Hezbollah fired about 170 rockets towards the country in the past 24 hours
IAF conduced air strikes across S Lebanon, the Bekaa Valley and southern Beirut including the port area.
Israel’s Northern Command reports that Hezbollah only has 30% of its rockets and launchers remaining and has lost 2,000 of its terrorists since October 8th last year. The Northern Command added that just a few more weeks of operations in Lebanon are required to accomplish goals that will allow northern Israeli residents to return home in safety.
***
IAF revealed intelligence on a Hezbollah financial site that has not been hit—where Hezbollah has a much as a half billion dollars in gold and cash—in Hassan Nasrallah’s bunker. The bunker is located directly under Al-Sahel Hospital in the heart of Beirut.
In spite of Israel stating that it will not attack the bunker, IAF spokesman said the Israeli Air Force is keeping an eye on the facility, and he urged Lebanese authorities and international organizations to stop Hezbollah from utilizing “the money for terror and to attack Israel.”
Lebanese have begun to evacuate the hospital.
***
The Saudi Al-Hadath channel, citing its “sources,” reports that officials at the Iranian embassy in Beirut were involved in the assassination attempt on Prime Minister Netanyahu. According to the sources, the Israeli investigation has revealed Iranian involvement in launching a drone targeting Netanyahu’s residence.
(Open Source Intel on X)
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
The Israeli army spokesperson Daniel Hagari confirmed that Israel carried out the airstrike in Syria today, saying it targeted “the head of Hezbollah’s financial arm responsible for funneling cash from Iran to Hezbollah.” Syrian media are reporting a car explosion in Al-Mezzah neighborhood of Damascus, where the Iranian embassy is located
***
According to Israeli Media; Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has been talks over the last few weeks with both Iranian and Hezbollah officials, urging them not to launch further attacks from Syrian Territory or commit any action which could lead to additional Israeli strikes. Al-Assad fears that a war between Israel and Iran could result in his removal from power.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Evidence that Sinwar/Hamas exploited US and international opposition to Israeli attacks and leveraged that along with hostages in the war is not unexpected. Understand - the US state dept knew full well it was contributing to this. Honey Badger Netanyahu knew this tactic well and ignored it - throwing Hamas (and later Hezbollah) plans into a tail spin.
Lebanon has been experiencing a financial crisis over the past couple years, and the exposing of the vast stores of wealth in Hezbollah bunkers is bound to exacerbate the tensions between Hezbollah and other ethnic/religions groups who view Hezbollah as the primary cause of the troubles. Half billion in dollar equivalents would go a long way to keep the power on in the country for instance. This financial divide will only get worse as Lebanon begins to face rebuilding after the war is over, with hundreds of millions of dollars in damage.
I’ve noted the potential and now growing internal resistance to Hezbollah. Exposing a half billion sitting in a vault may just trigger the Lebanese govt to confiscate it for the nation and deny Hezbollah’s use. Since it is under a civilian hospital, there is plenty of justification for the action as Hezbollah’s only action to prevent it is to attack the Lebanese govt - triggering more internal hostility towards it.
Syria’s Assad is apparently getting cold feet in his support of Iran and Hezbollah. He already has his hands full between the ongoing civil war, ISIS resurgence and Iranian militias staring up US/coalition forces in the east.
Finally, the world is still waiting for the big show of the Israeli response to Iran’s Oct 1 missile attack. Iran’s attempted assassination of netanyahu may well have put nuclear and oil facilities back on the target list. The US response still suggests Israel is going after some pretty sensitive targets. Nations in the region are already looking at Iranian responses. The region is bracing for Iran’s expanding the conflict. Time will tell as will the extent and success of the Israeli operation.
Iran –
Iran will hold the United States accountable for the coming Israeli attack.
The Iranian Embassy at the United Nations in New York City said this afternoon, “President Biden’s remarks in Berlin on Friday, stating he knows “when and how” Israel will attack Iran, amount to “tacit approval and explicit support” for Israel’s “illegal aggressive actions” against Iran.
They added, “The United States will bear full responsibility for its role in any Israeli act of aggression against Iran.”
OBSERVATION - Not the first threat by Iran towards the US. However, this threat comes after the US lit the houthi’s up with the big bombs dropped by B2. The threat to hit all U.S. Bases in the Middle East is a serious on and would likely cause a US counter strike. Iran may see itself soon fighting a two (or more) front war and may find out it wasn’t too smart to poke the bear. Additionally, threats continue to spill out to other gulf nations - particularly against their oil production assets. Some, like the saudi’s have missiles of their own that they may fire towards Iran as well as air force strike capabilities. Should Iran go down the road of attacking locations in the region, things could tailspin out of control rapidly. FAFO in play here.
Iraq -
Iraq has announced it has killed the leader of ISIS in Iraq. I’ve not seen further details.