Threat Matrix

Threats surround us on a daily basis. Being able to recognize them and react are essential. This is ongoing commentary of those threats

As we move into December, I’m going to try to recap the major trends/activity of some of the critical categories and give a rough estimate of the trends going into 2024 and what I’m expecting to see.

Economy –

New home prices have plummeted by a staggering 18%, marking the most significant annual decline on record, surpassing even the depths of the 2008 financial crisis. Mortgage demand hitting its lowest since 1994, and housing defaults soaring to levels not seen since 2013. The average selling price is down almost $90,000 from last year.

OBSERVATION - Time and again, the housing market measures the pulse of the American economy as it touches so many areas. It is the housing market that economists look to to help pull the country out of recessions. This report only shows things getting worse - fast.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

Media outlet Business Insider was criticized over the weekend after publishing an article that offered speculation regarding what would happen “if Donald Trump dies while running in the 2024 election.”

After Insider published the speculative article regarding President Trump’s death during the primary, some conservative commentators offered criticism. Some also claimed it’s part of an attempt to normalize President Trump’s death, suggesting a nefarious plot could be carried out.

“First, Levi Strauss heir Rep. Dan Goldman says Trump must be ‘eliminated,’ and now Business Insider is openly asking: What would happen if Donald Trump ‘dies while seeking reelection’ in 2024?” wrote commentator Charlie Kirk on X.

OBSERVATION - The repetitive statements ‘speculating’ on the death of Trump may well be ‘normalizing’ (preparing the mental attitude of the sheeple) the concept, laying the groundwork and base line that the left will employ to keep the right’s anger in check and hold the morale high ground. This continued ‘talk’ is very concerning - like telegraphing a punch. Even with all the lawsuits, Trump is poised in leftist leaning polls to trounce biden. Since biden can’t be improved, Trump is looking to win his court cases, the only other option to the left is to eliminate him.

To state it simply, the country is likely to blow up.

***
“I think we made the point. We came here, we disrupted the event, we canceled Christmas, so give it up for yourselves,” yelled a protester as a pro-Muslim mob stormed a Christmas tree lighting ceremony in Ypsilanti, Michigan. The mob completely ruined the celebration and terrified children. At one point the grown Muslim sympathizers chanted, “America is a terrorist state.”

RELATED - Pro-Hamas rallying to disrupt the tree lighting at Rockefeller plaza wed 29th.

OBSERVATION - The radical islamists under the pro-Hamas banner seem to be gaining traction in that they are also getting other anti-israeli leftists and Antifa related elements to come and cause trouble. It is apparent that they see themselves as reaching a demographic level - combined with favorable press - that they can start making cultural demands on Americans. NOTE - this trend has hit hard globally as a result of the Gaza war. Currently, intimidation by shear numbers is working for them, but violence underlies islamic efforts globally and the risk of violence grows.

***
Update - Jason J. Eaton has pleaded not guilty to attempted murder over the shooting of three Palestinian nationalists in Burlington, Vt. Leftists & Muslim activists have stated without evidence that it was an Islamophobic hate crime by a white supremacist. Authorities have not commented on a potential motive. Eaton’s social media shows a liberal & left political worldview. (Andy Ngo)

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics – HEIGHTENED ALERT STATUS

See China below on pneumonia issue

Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT

The Municipal Water Authority of Aliquippa said on Saturday that one of their booster stations had been hacked by an Iranian-backed cyber group.

OBSERVATION - Infrastructure like water systems has been a commonly warned about target for cyber warfare.

Illegal Immigration –

In the last fiscal year there were over 600,000 known gotaways. This is a level near that of total illegals intercepted in the Before Years. They probably represent the potentially most dangerous of the illegals, since their effort not to be caught and potentially identified by border patrol suggests that they are motivated for criminal means.

China –

China’s Zhongzhi Enterprise Group, a leading wealth manager, told investors it is heavily insolvent with up to $64 billion in liabilities, threatening to reignite concerns that the country’s property debt crisis is spilling over into the broader financial sector.

Beijing police have begun a probe into the wealth management unit of Zhongzhi Enterprise Group, the authorities said over the weekend. The announcement comes just days after the company told investors that it is “severely insolvent.”

The government is only investigating now because it helps insulate the Xi dictatorship from public anger. Freedom House’s China Dissent Monitor project tallied 1,777 demonstrations linked to the property sector between June 2022 and October 2023.

Two-thirds of these events involved homebuyers and homeowners raising issues like project delays, contract violations, alleged fraud and shoddy workmanship.

OBSERVATION - These banks are linked to the failure of Chinese real estate titans Evergrande Group and Country Garden.

***
Mystery pneumonia continues to sweep over China causing people to overwhelm hospitals. Some of this may be a fear reaction following China’s brutal zero wuhan lockdowns.

North/South Korea –

United Nations Command has confirmed that North Korean soldiers stationed at the Joint Security Area are now carrying pistols. Countermeasures are currently being considered.

North Korea and South Korea agreed to disarm the JSA as part of reconciliation efforts in 2018.

OBSERVATION - Another catastrophic foreign policy disasters of the biden regime. Trump’s more personal negotiations with Kim worked to reduce tensions on the peninsula. biden’s blundering have only made things worse.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Nov 12, 2023

Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Attacks to take Adviivka, located near occupied Donetsk has been their priority as well as further north. However, it is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine.

The Russian army has lost a considerable amount of armor/tanks and personnel in the fight to take Adviivka, causing that offensive to stall considerably and resort to “meat” attacks.

With the arrival of the muddy season, significant offensive actions by Russia are unlikely.

Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.

Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. With the onset of winter, it is believed that Russian is shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for an effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as it did last year. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.

The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s recent attacks on ships in Crimean harbors has forced the majority of the fleet to redeploying out of Crimea and to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.

Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.

*****

Winter Storm Bettina is wreaked havoc on the Crimean and Black Sea regions of Russia - see Ukraine below for details. Significant potential logistical problems for Russia in the war against Ukraine.

Kremlin spokesman Peskov threatens naval blockade of the entire EU if it passes any more sanctions against Russia.

Russian Personnel Issues –-
UK Intel notes the past 6 weeks have resulted in the highest casualty rates for Russia since the start of the war.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 30 -40 degree range with rain and/or snow across the forecast period.
Winter Storm Bettina aftereffects and recovery underway in southern Ukraine, Crimea and Russia.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The after effects of Winter Storm Bettina indicate that it strengthened when it reached the Black Sea and that the brunt of the storm hammered Crimea and coastal areas of Russia, particularly the Sochi area.

Avdiivka -
Russian forces in Ukraine have likely suffered “some of the highest” casualty rates in the past six weeks, mainly caused by Russia’s offensive against Avdiivka, the ministry reported on Nov. 27.

Russian Territory –
Last night, Ukraine attacked the Smolensk Aviation Plant with drones, the media reported, citing sources in the special service. Major fires reported.

Outlook —-
Weather and mud conditions are dictating operations. Much of eastern Ukraine was not hit as hard by the winter storm as they were in the south. In spite of heavy losses in the Adviivka front, in the range 800-1100 per day, Russian doggedly continues to press the attack, with very little to show for it.

Also expect continued drone attacks by each side.

Europe / NATO General –

A large protest against mass migration has broken out in Lyon, France
The protest is a tribute to Thomas and 17 others who were stabbed a week ago in Crépol by a gang of migrants.

Protests continue against mass migration in Spain (in conjunction with protests against the socialist govt pushing migrations), Italy, Ireland, parts of England, Germany etc. As noted under CW2, the islamic component has reached a level that they believe they can now intimidate the population into submission under islam. With this rampant crime that goes unstopped - as if the local police don’t want to make the effort for fear of more protests.

OBSERVATION - This is making the European continent into a powder keg as nationalist movements are on the grow demanding deportation of these intruders.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- 11 Israeli hostages released from Hamas captivity overnight

- Israel and Hamas agree to extend the truce in Gaza two days

- Hamas has committed to release 20 women and children over the next two days, the bare minimum to sustain the operational pause.

GENERAL ——————————-

Director of Gaza’s Shifa hospital under arrest in Israel on charges of aiding enemy during wartime, providing service to terror organization.

NOTE - There are others that should be in jail as well, representatives of NGOs, Red Cross (Crescent), WHO, etc that knew about the use of the Hospital for terror purposes but remained either silent or parroted the claim of no activity .

***
Qatari Foreign Ministry: We cannot verify the number of hostages remaining with Hamas after the twenty who will be released on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Hamas official Hisham Qasem spouted a new propaganda talking point for the terrorist group this week, claiming that Hamas terrorists had kidnapped Thai nationals “for their own protection” during their October 7 attack on Israel. Hamas released a total of 19 foreign nationals in a side deal with Thailand overnight.

Following an hours-long delay, Hamas released 11 Israelis held in the Gaza Strip on Monday, the fourth day of a truce between Jerusalem and the Palestinian terrorist organization. CNN cited an Israeli official as saying there were “a number” of problems with Monday’s lists—one being that they did not contain any mothers. Under the terms of the deal, Hamas agreed that mothers would not be separated from their children, according to Jerusalem.

Two other sources familiar with the matter said at least one mother was included, just not the full group of mothers anticipated.

It appears that Hamas has “found” at least some of the Israeli mothers being held hostage in Gaza and will release them along with their children today. Senior Israeli officials tell me the negotiations were successful and 11 hostages including 2 mothers will be released today

10 month old baby hostage Kfir Bibas, his 4 year old brother Ariel, and their mother were transferred by Hamas to PLFP terrorists in Khan Younis (southern Gaza).

Hamas and PLFP terrorists are REFUSING to release them.
Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) has been designated by the Department of State as a terror organization since October 1997.

OBSERVATION - Hamas is playing a psyop game with Israel. But there is real danger growing with hostages being held by ‘civilian’ as well as these other jihad groups that may not believe that they should follow Hamas’ command.

GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Operation pause holds, though there were reports of a brief gun battle overnight.

LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Relatively quiet

SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Relatively quiet

WEST BANK——————————-

IDF / Police continue operations to arrest Hamas related terrorists.

“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Houthi’s seem to have hit a pause in its piracy actions as international naval forces are repositioning to prevent future attacks.

FORECAST ————————-

Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - The hostages for criminals exchange may well be reaching a end. Hamas is now starting to claim that they cannot ‘find’ them or they are being held by other factions who are refusing to release them. It has been apparent that inspire the smily face Hamas has been trying to put forward, they treated the hostages very poorly, and that is creating anger in the Israeli population and not sympathy. I think that this two day extension will be the last for a while. Israel is ready to get back to killing Hamas wherever they can find them.

The response of US naval elements to the hijack attempt by Houthis seems to have put a pause to their piracy for now.

Globalism / Great Reset –

The newly sworn-in New Zealand government intends not to be pushed around by UN resolutions or by the World Health Organization anymore. According to a coalition agreement with New Zealand First, the new government will undertake a “National Interest Test” before accepting any agreements from the United Nations or the World Health Organization’s proposed amendments to the International Health Regulations.

OBSERVATION - Growing pushback on these new WHO regulations designed to subjugate countries to the globalist narrative.

***
A lead United Nations agency overseeing food and agriculture policy is expected to issue a road map in the coming weeks which will call on the West, including America, to dramatically reduce its meat consumption.
The UN’s Food & Agriculture Organization (FAO) will publish its so-called global food systems’ road map during the upcoming COP28 climate summit in Dubai which will kick off on Thursday and extend nearly two weeks until mid-December. FAO’s first-of-its-kind document will recommend nations that “over-consume meat” to limit their consumption as part of a broader effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, Bloomberg reported.

“The failure of leading meat and dairy companies to reduce emissions underlines the urgent need for more policy focus on the food and agriculture sector,” Jeremy Coller, the chair and founder of the FAIRR Initiative, an investor network that works with financial institutions to promote climate-friendly agriculture worldwide, said in a recent statement.

“Food system emissions deserve a place at the top of the table, alongside energy and transport, as they represent an estimated third of greenhouse gas emissions and 40% of methane,” he continued. “Investors hope the first-ever publication of a food and agriculture road map at COP28 this month will catalyze the transition to 1.5 degrees and a more sustainable food system.”

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/united-nations-set-call-americans-reduce-meat-consumption

OBSERVATION - Food - a major tool used by tyranny to control the general population. It is not limited beef, they are also targeting vegetable foods - you know, the ones they want you to switch to - because of the carbon foot print they produce as well!
Starvation as a way to control behavior - not a unlikely tool but one used time and again throughout history.

Here in the US of A, it is highly unlikely that such meat consumption proposal will pass congress. So fully expect the regime to start issuing regulatory ‘law’ to force meat producers essentially out of business - forcing the issue.

BY THE WAY - The United Nations agency that is pushing wealthy nations to curb their meat consumption in the name of climate change is led by a top Chinese Communist Party official who is known for using the agency to serve Beijing.

***
Bill Gates is aggressively pushing his plan to experiment with “cashless societies” and “digital IDs” in the African nation of Nigeria.
Gates and his foundation are attempting to eliminate physical money and replace it with “digital cash” that’s linked to a global identification system.

OBSERVATION - Beta testing in a third world country. Designed to work out the bugs for eventual global deployment.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

One thing standing out larger and larger is that in many parts of the US, we have become completely lawless. Crime over the course of the year has skyrocketed, police departments have shrunk and DA’s don’t bother to even force those arrested to post bond, let alone actually go to trial.

***

Attorneys for the Justice Department have revealed documents connected to their search warrant for Donald Trump’s Twitter account, indicating that prosecutors collected a massive collection of data about the former President’s social media activity—including information on every account that liked, followed, or retweeted him.

The extensively redacted search warrant was revealed as a result of a judge’s ruling on November 17, which came after a consortium of media organizations filed an application in August for the warrant and other data to be made public.

OBSERVATION - More and more it becomes apparent that the govt is developing a list of enemies, categorizing and filtering them. Govts have this tendency to eventually use these lists to suppress opposition to the ruling regime. Remember - these same agencies have declared half the country to be domestic terrorists. Throw in a kangaroo court system and bingo - load the trains to the concentration camps.

***
Anti-Israel students were reported running around on campus at University of California Los Angeles UCLA yesterday, brandishing knives while cutting down posters of Israeli civilians kidnapped by Hamas.

OBSERVATION - Using the threat of lethal violence as a way to deter opposition. This is how things escalate to people being seriously injured or killed. Haven’t seen if the campus officials are going to take action against these students or not. If the current trend follows - they are very unlikely to do anything. This will then drive pro-Israel individuals to arm themselves for self defense purposes.

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics – HEIGHTENED ALERT STATUS

The Chinese National Health Commission claims the new surge is caused by a variety of illnesses, such as influenza, rhinovirus, mycoplasma pneumoniae, respiratory syncytial virus and adenovirus, according to the South China Morning Post. Officials are now calling for a reinstatement of pandemic-era lockdown protocols to help curb the outbreak, even though these measures didn’t really do anything the first time around.

WHO has called upon China to release more information about the outbreak. As yet, it’s unclear whether the communist-run nation has provided this information, as they did not provide much of the requested information during the COVID-19 pandemic either.

RELATED - Washington DC is now seeing an uptick in hospital cases due to the mysterious illness.

MORE- The Netherlands is experiencing a bizarre uptick in pneumonia cases among children, marking the second country to report an outbreak of this type this week.

The Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research (NIVEL), a research institute in Utrecht, around 25 miles south of Amsterdam, reports that 80 of every 100,000 children between ages 5 and 14 came down with pneumonia last week.

AND MORE - Public health workers wearing full protective gear have appeared on the streets of northern China, according to footage on social media, evoking memories of the country’s stringent anti-virus measures during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The hazmat-clad personnel were seen spraying disinfectant in public spaces in Sanhe, in China’s northern Hebei Province roughly 50 miles east of capital Beijing, according to the poster of the images and video footage. It remains unclear whether this was a local government initiative or central government directive.

OBSERVATION - China claims no new pathogens have been encountered, but common ones taking advantage of weakened immune systems from the wuhan lockdowns. One is hard pressed to believe China, and they have’t been forthcoming with the WHO either. This is raising concerns that there is more to this than meets the eye. Already it has been documented in recent peer review studies that the jab with the mRNA actually degrades the human immune system on a wide number of fronts - sudden death from heart failures, reproductive issues, “turbo’ cancers, etc.

Now at a closer look, the CDC has been really pushing the jab onto the children - the demographic currently bearing the brunt of this new outbreak - coincidence? I THINK NOT.

***
Pfizer has clearly become the lead for deadly ‘vaccines’.
A recent article published in The British Medical Journal (“The BMJ”) details the debate that has broken out over whether Pfizer should have told pregnant women participating in its trial of maternal respiratory syncytial virus (“RSV”) vaccination that a trial of GSK’s similar vaccine was halted over a safety signal around pre-term birth.
Pfizer’s maternal RSV vaccine is called Abrysvo.
Not only had GSK’s RSV vaccine trials shown a risk of babies being born prematurely but Pfizer was actively studying the risk as an “adverse event of special interest” in its trials.
The BMJ article described its investigation into the safety signal of increased pre-term and neonatal deaths and whether pregnant women who participated in Pfizer’s trial were adequately informed of the risk to their babies.

OBSERVATION - Key is did Pfizer mislead participants and regulatory agencies over these many adverse affects. Given the company history, the answer is a very strong yes.

POLITICAL FRONT –

The U.S. Supreme Court is scheduled to hear oral arguments in Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) v. Jarkesy which could force federal agencies to bring civil suits in federal court instead of using in-house judges.

OBSERVATION - The folks at Forward Observer nail the implications on this one

“The Supreme Court’s affirmation of the 5th Circuit’s decision that the SEC cannot use in-house judges for civil suits could have widespread effects on federal power. Federal regulators like the SEC and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission would be required to bring civil suits in federal courts, instead of using their own in-house judges, which would require agencies to show they have standing to bring the suit in the first place. This case could also revive the “nondelegation doctrine” that Congress cannot delegate law-making authorities to federal agencies, putting another nail in the Chevron Deference coffin and becoming a thorn in the side of the Biden administration’s green energy agenda.”

I’ve noted that the regime has extensively used regulatory ‘law’ to achieve what it cannot pass through congress. Hopefully the USSC rules in favor of the people and not the bureaucrats.

Biden / Harris Watch –

The White House Christmas tree toppling over. Many are describing this as the perfect depiction of Joe Biden and the state of America. US Parks Service says tree may not be salvageable. All this before the official lighting ceremony.

OBSERVATION - I’m not one who is into reading ‘omens’, but this would fit perfectly as one.

Illegal Immigration –

Two separate incidents unfolded in DuPage County, Illinois, during the Black Friday retail rush. On Friday, police were called to a Kohl’s store in the city of Elmhurst after a trio of suspects executed multiple thefts in a short span of time.

“It is alleged that three individuals, later identified as Ledesma Zapata, Saavedra-Omona and Pineda Avendano, entered Kohl’s, selected multiple items of clothing and then left the store without paying for the merchandise,” the County of DuPage explained in a press release.
“It is further alleged that the trio then reentered the store, again selected multiple items of clothing and left the store without paying, at which time they were detained by officers with the Elmhurst Police Department.”

OBSERVATION - Individuals are in the country illegally. Illegals are also being noted in developing/participating in much larger looting organizations. Cartel crime syndicates are growing in the US as well.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Nov 12, 2023

The Russian army has lost a considerable amount of armor/tanks and personnel in the fight to take Adviivka, causing that offensive to stall considerably and resort to “meat” attacks.

With the arrival of the muddy season, significant offensive actions by Russia are unlikely.

Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.

*****

NUCLEAR THREATS –

Russia, current chair of the “Big Five” nuclear-armed states, will not convene any meetings this year but has presented the group with a schedule for 2024, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told reporters on Tuesday, according to Russian news agencies.

Russia took over coordination of the group from the U.S. in August. The “Big Five” are the veto-wielding permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, and also include China, France, and Britain.

“We have outlined our proposals on the agenda and the rough schedule, and can apparently expect to receive feedback from other members of the Five,” Ryabkov was quoted as saying.

Kerch Bridge update –

Satellite imagery shows Naval drone defensive guardrails around the Crimean Bridge built by Russia were destroyed by the storm.

Logistics –

Russia has amassed a large missile stockpile ahead of winter, NATO’s Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on Wednesday.

Russia has been making new attempts to strike Ukraine’s power grid and energy infrastructure, “trying to leave Ukraine in the dark and cold,” he said.
NOTE - This assessment is supported by the absence of these missiles from recent strikes against Ukraine.

Russian Personnel Issues –-

Preliminary information came out that Russian Major General Vladimir Vasilyevich Zavadsky, (former) Commander of the Taman Division and deputy of the 14th Army Corps has been killed, reportedly blown up by a mine.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 30 -40 degree range with rain and/or snow across the forecast period.
Winter Storm Bettina aftereffects and recovery underway in southern Ukraine, Crimea and Russia.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Moderately busy, Ukrainian air defense shot down 21 of 21 Shahed drones and 2 of 3 Kh-59 missiles overnight. Otherwise, generally minor actions along all fronts.

Crimean front —
Recent storms over the Black Sea heavily damaged Russian defenses at the entrance to Sevastopol harbor in Crimea.

Outlook —-
Weather and mud conditions are dictating operations.

Damage to Russian fortifications and infrastructure in Crimea and eastern Black Sea coast is extensive. I expect the Ukraine may take advantage of the situation to strike before Russia has the chance to restore/repair them.

Europe / NATO General –

Anger over the tsunami of migrants continues to keep much of Europe on edge, with more protests ongoing as well as in the works. Absent aggressive govt actions to get serious about blocking the entry of more and aggressive deportation of those there - the tide is that the people will start taking things into their own hands.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- IDF says the 12 released hostages from Tuesday’s exchange are in Israeli territory.

- Israel confirmed that it received the list of 10 hostages that are expected to be freed on Wednesday

- Hamas is asking for a four-day extension of the ceasefire agreement

- Israel & Hamas both reported at least one violation of the temporary truce agreement in the Gaza Strip on November 28, but neither side escalated the situation to more general fighting across the strip.

GENERAL ——————————-

RUMINT - Hamas is reportedly offering all the hostages in exchange for a full ceasefire. In other words, if Israel agrees to lose the war, and accept Hamas’s survival, it will give us the hostages.

Hamas is asking for a four-day extension of the ceasefire agreement it reached with Israel on Nov. 24, AFP reported on Wednesday.
“Hamas has informed the mediators that it is willing to extend the truce for four days and that the movement would be able to release Israeli prisoners that it, other resistance movements and other parties hold during this period, according to the terms of the existing truce,” a source told the news agency.

A total of 60 Israeli women and children, plus one Israeli man, had been freed as of Wednesday, along with 17 Thais and one Filipino.
Hamas kidnapped some 240 people during its Oct. 7 assault on southern Israel

GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Operation pause holds, though there were reports of a brief gun battle overnight.

LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Relatively quiet

SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Relatively quiet

WEST BANK——————————-

Israeli forces have reportedly completely surrounded the Jenin camp and have entered it, with resulting clashes with Palestinian militants

“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

More maritime alerts of suspicious vessels south of Yemen, very possibly Houthi terrorists testing the waters for another attempt as seizing a ship.

FORECAST ————————-

Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - The hostages for criminals exchange may well be reaching a end. The minor violations yesterday by both sides as well as growing reluctance by Hamas to release hostages past women and children - to captured men and especially any captured military individuals - is growing increasingly unlikely.

Turkey –

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan on Tuesday told the United Nations (UN) Secretary General Antonio Guterres that Israel must be held accountable in international courts for what he called war crimes it committed in Gaza, the Turkish president said.

OBSERVATION - Any future rewarming of the relations between Israel and Turkey will only occur when radical islamist leaning Erdogan leaves office and Turkey returns to being a more moderate arab state.

Globalism / Great Reset –

COP28 in progress, expect a bunch of high faloouting dictates to the peasants in the coming days and weeks.

Economy –

Major banks have been closing thousands of branches across the country in a cast saving moves. Some analysts consider this to be a precursor of growing potential bank failures.

***
Shrugging off higher interest rates, America’s consumers spent enough to help drive the economy to a brisk 5.2% annual pace from July through September, the government reported Wednesday in an upgrade from its previous estimate.
The government had previously estimated that the economy grew at a 4.9% annual rate last quarter.

Wednesday’s second estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the July-September quarter confirmed that the economy sharply accelerated from its 2.1% rate from April through June. It showed that the U.S. gross domestic product — the total output of goods and services — grew at its fastest quarterly rate in nearly two years.

Consumer spending, the lifeblood of the economy, rose at a 3.6% annual rate from July through September — still healthy but a downgrade from the previous estimate of 4%. The economy also received a lift from companies building inventories in anticipation of future sales. Also driving the third quarter growth was an uptick in spending and investment by governments at all levels, federal, state and local.

https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/gdp-economic-group-third-quarter/2023/11/29/id/1144026/

OBSERVATION - I view these numbers with some suspicion. Here the regime indicates that much of the economy has been driven by consumer spending - a view that other economic measures indicate has been steadily contracting. The US govt has continued to spend like a drunken sailor and this causes some analysts to point the source of GDP numbers to it. The same note inflation levels being driven by continued high govt spending as well. This wouldn’t be the first time the govt has cooked the numbers.

One key contra indicator to this GDP is the U.S. housing market, a historical indicator of economic health, is in a deadfall.

***
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its 10 Russian-led allies – known as OPEC+ – have reached a preliminary agreement for a one million barrel per day oil production cut according to two OPEC+ sources. They are targeting to maintain a price of $88/barrel for Brent crude. The drop in global oil consumption is linked in part to China’s deepening economic woes as well as sectors of the global economy slumping towards a recession.

OBSERVATION - Gas prices here in my corner of the Redoubt have come down by a lot over the past month. As I’ve said, post-sanctions Iran oil will be hitting the market soon, driving additional over supply to the market. Though some market analysts suggest that the decrease in production will cause prices to rise, with the other factors I don’t expect much to change in the short term. This is something like the second or third production decrease in the past few months.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

Pro Hamas rioters turned out in force last night in an effort to stop or disrupt the annual lighting of the Christmas tree in Rockefeller Plaza. The rioters fought with NYPD in an attempt to break through barriers to get to the site.

OBSERVATION - It seems the marxist left has finally found a cause that brings protestors back to the streets - progressive hatred for Israel. The hybrid (intersectional) mash-mash of climate change, LGBT, Transtifa, Antifa and Pro-Hamas supporters are merging onto a common enemy - Israel and any supporters there of. The largest component are the pro-Hamas islamic supporters who are flexing their muscles now by attacking Christianity and Judaism during this holiday season. Islam is completely intolerant of other religions once the moslem population reaches a critical level. Now boistered with these (I’ll say temporary allies) other groups, they are making their move to superimpose islamic standards on the US culture.

This has any ramifications, one being the major rift in the democrat party between the traditional Israel supporting moderates and the marxist progressives. Throw in the decades of brain washing in our colleges and universities for anti-Israel (and similar decolonization / CRT) thought, and we are sure to see more of this.

As we move into the 2024 campaign season in full force, this islamic movement with its straphangers will be expected to try to intimidate voters into sympathizing with their ‘cause’ or face violence. This violence will not be restricted to vandalism and burning buildings. I fully expect that they will physically go after perceived opponents, or ‘supporters’ not ideologically pure enough, and injure/kill. Our major city police forces are grossly understaffed and funded and face getting knifed in the back by the municipal leadership that has been so supportive of the defund the police / BLM movement of 2020. The potential for anarchy and lawlessness if far greater in the coming months than 2020 - and that is saying a lot!.

Also, I fully expect that based on what they would define as a ‘successful’ protest, there will be many more such protests at Christmas and Hanukkah events over the next month. Fully expect vandalism of public Christmas trees, Nativity scenes and Hanukkah lamps.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The US Army deployed some of the leadership for the 1st Security Force Assistance Brigade (SFAB) to Guyana over the weekend.
The SFAB team met with GDF leadership in order to plan out enhanced military cooperation together.

OBSERVATION - Military advisors. Not sure how big an military force Guyana has, but I’m sure its smaller and less well equipped than Venezula.

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics – HEIGHTENED ALERT STATUS

Monitoring the rise of pneumonia cases in China and apparent spread to other countries.

While some may just poo-poo this as a scare, I’m not letting that interfere with my preparations for a potential global pan(scam)demic.

Biden / Harris Watch –
While addressing workers in Colorado biden quipped-

“Hey Nick! Hello, Marley. Now look, my Marine carries, uh, has a code to blow up the world. That doesn’t - it’s not, uh, nuclear weapons, is it?

OBSERVATION - I continue to be surprised that biden has lasted this long in the WH.

Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT

Other reports of hacking attacks on other water supply and sanitation / sewage systems.

Illegal Immigration –

DHS Mayorkis calling for congress to grant amnesty for the now nearly 30 million illegals residing in the US.

Another article of impeachment is set to go before the House again

China –

Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen said that China is too “overwhelmed” with economic problems to launch an invasion of Taiwan.

OBSERVATION - That could all change with the election of a pro-independence govt this coming January. But I think Tsai is looking at the wrong scenario. China has twice exercised what many analysts consider to be a blockade scenario, and not an invasion scenario. China now with three aircraft carriers and its other surface combatants may well have enough assets to conduct such a blockade. An given how the US govt is in disarray with a mind addled biden and two major conflicts we are supporting, our military assets necessary to break such a blockade are looking pretty thin.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Nov 12, 2023

The Russian army has lost a considerable amount of armor/tanks and personnel in the fight to take Adviivka, causing that offensive to stall considerably and resort to “meat” attacks.

With the arrival of the muddy season, significant offensive actions by Russia are unlikely.

Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.

*****
During his speech at the OSCE meeting, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov asked to ‘leave him alone”. In turn, a number of ministers during his speech decided to leave the hall so they didn’t have to listen to Lavrov any further.

He accused NATO and the European Union states of allegedly ‘destroying the military-political dimension of the OSCE with their own hands’.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 30 -40 degree range with rain and/or snow across the forecast period.
Winter Storm Bettina aftereffects and recovery underway in southern Ukraine, Crimea and Russia.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight, Russia attacked Ukraine with a total of 20 Shahed drones of which 14 were shot down. Additionally they launched 8 S-300 missiles of which the impact is being determined. Explosions were heard in the Odesa and Kherson regions - combination of shoot downs and possible impacts by the S300s.

Reports of another attempted Russian armored assault on Adviivka during the past few days. The assault was turned back with the reported loss of about a dozen Russian tanks and numerous armored vehicles and hundreds of men.

Crimean front —

Overnight, Ukraine reportedly attacked Saki air base in occupied Crimea, specifically the 43rd Aviation Regiment. Preliminary reports suggest over 30 Russian servicemen were killed. No reports on aircraft damage.

Russian Territory –

The Ukrainian SBU blew up a part of the railway track between Russia and China. The explosion happened last night on the Baikal-Amur highway, near in the Severomuysky Tunnel located in Buryatia. It is the main railway connection between Russia and China.

Reports that a warehouse in Bryansk, Russia, storing Shahed drones (Russian name: Geran-2) has been hit. Locals report that at 18:12 local time explosions rocked the city.

Outlook —-

Weather and mud conditions are dictating operations. The most significant actions will likely be in the ‘deep’ game of drones and missiles. Big drivers of these attacks will be excusable and timely intelligence. Ukraine has the edge in that field with partisans operating in the occupied territories and western intelligence feeds. Russia is harder pressed to get HUMINT in Ukraine and its own strategic intel collection platforms are not getting the job done.

This has become a war of drones, on a tactical thru strategic level the likes of which the world hasn’t seen before. It will be a while before this technology is pretty much countered and new tactics and equipment take over.

Europe / NATO General –

London council cancels Hanukkah Menorah event over community tension concerns (i.e. they want to appease hamas supporters)

Tensions continue in Ireland where even the phrase “Irish Lives Matter” is now considered to be hate speech.

Protests continue in Spain over plans to provide amnesty to a breakaway region that will tip the parliamentary power to the socialists.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Hamas at last minute submits list of additional hostages to be freed. Pause extended for one day.

GENERAL ——————————-

Israel & Hamas agreed to extend Gaza ceasefire for another day. This included a new list includes 8 women & children, not 10 like in previous days, the 2 Israeli Russians who were unilaterally released on Wednesday by Hamas as a gesture to [Putin] will be counted as part of Thursday’s release.”

Estimates in Israel indicate that this will be the last day of the truce in Gaza. Hamas has pretty much played the hostage game as far as it can and now must face the music again.

Israel has arrested or killed more terrorists in the West Bank than they have released for the exchange of hostages.

GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Operation pause holds, though there were reports of a brief gun battles overnight.

LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Israeli air defenses successfully intercepted an aerial target that crossed from Lebanon into Israeli territory and activated sirens in northern Israel.

SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Relatively quiet

WEST BANK——————————-

3 Israelis waiting at a bus stop killed by 2 shooters
4 in critical condition
The terrorists were swiftly killed by 2 armed off-duty Israeli soldiers & 1 armed civilian driving past.
The Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades claims responsibility for Jerusalem attack and named attackers as the brothers Murad and Ibrahim al-Nimr.

***
Car ramming attack in Jordan Valley area, 2 soldiers in reserves were lightly injured in the ramming attack at a checkpoint

“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

US base in Syria was targeted by rocket fire this morning, per US defense official. Attempted rocket attack on Mission Support Site Euphrates led to no damage nor injuries. Too soon to say whether this was a one-off or if it signals a renewal of militia attacks

Reports of a rocket attack earlier by IRGC backed militias on the Mission Support Site at Conico where coalition forces are based . No reports of casualties

***
U.S. Navy destroyer USS Carney downed an Iranian-made KAS-04 drone over the southern Red Sea after the drone, which was launched from Yemen, was deemed a threat, according to Reuters.

INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

U.N. teacher in Gaza locked up an Israeli hostage in an attic for nearly 50 days. The hostage was barely provided with food and denied medication. Teacher works for UNRWA, reports journalist Boker Almog. This has triggered a defunding of UNRWA from many nations.

The Swiss government will be terminating its support for three Palestinian-affiliated NGOs - the Palestinian Center for Human Rights (PCHR), Palestinian NGO Network (PNGO), and Al-Shabaka, according to a statement released by the Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs last week.

The FDFA’s decision comes on the heels of its suspension of the delivery of funds to eleven Palestinian NGOs in October following Hamas’s brutal attacks of October 7 that left 1,200 people dead. That move was made pending “an in-depth analysis of the compliance of these organizations’ communications with the FDFA’s Code of Conduct and anti-discrimination clause, to which external partners are subject.”

Germany announced it would be freezing funding to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), a body specifically dedicated to Palestinian refugees, amid reports it has distributed antisemitic material, incited violence, and had alumni who participated in the October 7 atrocities in Israel.
“UNRWA is not making a contribution to a peaceful solution,” Max Lucks of the Green Party said. “Not a single cent from Germany should reach teachers who glorify the terror of Hamas.”

***
Saudi Foreign Minister: We call for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza

Jordanian Foreign Minister: We call for recognition of the Palestinian state. The Israeli occupation of the Palestinian territories is the cause of the conflict.
NOTE - Jordan was designated in 1947 to be the Palestinian state. Arabs captured that area and took control when they attacked Israel after it was created.

Egyptian Foreign Minister: We must join forces to implement the internationally agreed upon solution, which is the two-state solution

Prime Minister of Qatar: We call for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip

***
Germany’s Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) on Wednesday said the danger of an Islamist terror attack on German soil had significantly increased - risk of attacks against the Jewish community or “the West as a whole”

FORECAST ————————-

Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - The hostages for criminals exchange may well be reaching a end. Shooting expected to begin by tomorrow’s posting.

The horror stories are starting to reach the media from the released hostages. The biggest ones are the UNRWA teacher holding a hostage, a Gazan doctor holding hostages, lack of medical treatment and physical abuse. I think the media is reporting more on this because of how they were humiliated defending hamas over the bunkers found beneath hospitals, schools, residential areas and mosques across N Gaza.

Of course, arab nations are calling for a further ceasefire beyond the operational ‘pause’ of the past week. Netanyahu reiterated that Israel’s goal is still to destroy Hamas and will not stop until that goal is achieved.

Review of the remaining hostages consists primarily of military related individuals, combat aged men and some remaining elderly and infants/children. For most of this group Hamas has completely ruled out any exchanges.

One thing to see when the fighting resumes is just how rearmed and reorganized Hamas was able to accomplish. Or did they try to exfiltrate as many as possible southward into Gaza, leaving a rear guard / delaying force in the north. The ones that remain in the north will likely be those jihadists with a martyrdom death wish, especially those smaller islamic elements affiliated with Hamas like PIJ.

I am not counting on Hezbollah getting deeper involved in the fighting apart from the low level of engagements already seen. The fight in N Gaza is only a matter of time before Hamas is eliminated, so there wouldn’t be much to gain in attacking Israel at the moments. That view could change as Israel pursues Hamas into S Gaza.

The ‘resistance’ forces in eastern Syria/western iraq will continue their hit and run attacks. This was building up even before the Gaza war kicked off as a joint plan supported by Syria to rid the region of US/collation forces.

Houthi sea piracy is expected to continue, but at greater risk to their elements as anti-piracy forces that have been in the region for a while are now fully alerted to the increased efforts and ready to respond quicker.

Venezuela - Increasing

Venezuelans hold as self-evident truth that their homeland’s eastern end includes Guyana’s Essequibo region next to the Atlantic — a territory larger than Greece and rich in oil and minerals. An Exxon oil survey in 2015 which found significant oil in the territory. Caracas is gearing up for a referendum scheduled for December 3 and is making military preparations.

However, any attempt to seize the territory may be met with severe push back.
The Brazilian Armed Forces have reportedly been placed into a heightened state of readiness due to a significant movement of military equipment and personnel in eastern Venezuela on the border of Guyana which has recently been detected, with officials believing that Venezuela may soon Invade the small South American country in order to annex the “Guayana Esequiba” Region which accounts for over 60% of the nation’s territory and has been claimed by the Venezuelan government.

A Venezuelan referendum is scheduled for Dec 3d, the results could nominally decide if they will attempt to seize the territory.

OBSERVATION - There is speculation that the renewed quest to seize the territory is in part supported by recent warm relations with Russia. Brazil’s part in any invasion is not fully clear to me, ranging from a defensive alliance with Guyana to seizing the southern portions of the territory adjacent to it. Who has Venezuela starts war on their bingo card for December?

Now entering December 2023 - Where in the *((%(( has the year gone?

Running a little late, sorry.

Globalism / Great Reset –

COP 28 snippets.

- COP28 advisory board member resigns over reports of UAE fossil fuel dealmaking

- COP28 is officially the largest-ever UN climate summit, with 80,000 participants registered on a list that – for the first time – shows who they work for.

- Iranian delegates walked out of UN climate talks in the United Arab Emirates on Friday in protest over the presence of Israeli representatives, state media reported.

- United Arab Emirates President Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed announced the establishment of a $30 billion (€27.5 billion) climate fund for global climate solutions that it hopes will lead to $250 billion in investment by the end of the decade.

- King Charles III has told COP28 climate talks in Dubai must be a “critical turning point” in the fight against climate change, with “genuine transformational action”.
“I pray with all my heart that COP28 will be another critical turning point towards genuine transformational action,” Charles told assembled leaders including Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, French President Emmanuel Macron and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

- United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told world leaders that the burning of fossil fuels must be stopped outright and a reduction or abatement in their use would not be enough to stop global warming.
“We cannot save a burning planet with a fire hose of fossil fuels,” Guterres said in a speech to the COP28 summit in Dubai. “The 1.5-degree limit is only possible if we ultimately stop burning all fossil fuels. Not reduce. Not abate.”
He urged fossil fuel companies to invest in a transition to renewable energy sources and told governments to help by forcing that change, including through the use of windfall taxes on industry profits

- India doubles down on right to increase coal power and CO2 emissions

Economy –

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon issued a stark warning to Wall Street on Wednesday: Inflation could rise further and recession is not off the table.

OBSERVATION - Still a lot of divergence by financial institutions regarding inflation and the state of the economy’s trend into a recession or not. My gut tells me that much of the prognostication are based on economic factors from the Before Years and not current economic realities and dynamics.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

A bipartisan group of senators is quietly trying to renew Section 702 of FISA for 12 more years by slipping it into a “must-pass” defense bill, the National Defense Authorization Act. It is set to expire on Dec 31.

OBSERVATION - Once again, the govt is aligning itself against citizens in order to carry out spying and other rights violations. We’ve already seen this movie. It also shows that the enemy is in congress in a greater way.

***
With the holiday season in full swing, there are many other opportunities for the pro-hamas islamic supporters to cause troubles as there are many other events on the schedule in numerous cities across the country. Watching to see how and where they shift their attention to next.

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics – HEIGHTENED ALERT STATUS

“Mystery pneumonia” affecting kids and ripping through China and parts of Europe, is reportedly now in America. 142 child cases of “white lung syndrome” have now been recorded in Warren County, Ohio since August, meaning if true, it’s been here for months.
CDC officials are saying “nothing is out of the ordinary” but according to county health official “Not only is this above the county average, it also meets the Ohio Department of Health definition of an outbreak.”

OBSERVATION - It is being associated now with the term “White Lung “.

RELATED
Denmark is currently being hit by a surge in the same type of pneumonia that has rocked China and sparked fears of a fresh pandemic. Danish health chiefs say rates of mycoplasma pneumoniae, a bacterial infection for which some antibiotics are useless, has reached ‘epidemic’ levels.

Mycoplasma pneumoniae normally causes a mild flu-like illness, sometimes called ‘walking pneumonia’. Cases are most common in younger children.

POLITICAL FRONT –

House panel chairman says J6 videotapes of witness interviews missing. He also said he saw no need to preserve them -although House rules and law mandated they be kept and maintained.

OBSERVATION - Now the cover up of the cover up begins. Totally unfounded to misplace or destroy official congressional documents of an investigation. The powers that be don’t want us to see this material.

***
Newscum and DeSantis met in a debate moderated by Sean Hannity. I didn’t watch but news commentators indicated that newscum got backed into the corner so many times because of the facts that even his used car salesman smile couldn’t get him out.

FWIW, this could be a try out to replace biden with the faux golden kalifornian golden kid. If so, it didn’t go well and the democrat powers that be may be forced to seek out a better alternative candidate.

DeSantis did OK, but he should have given newscum’s record.

Biden / Harris Watch –

Harris is off COP28 to waste US money.

Illegal Immigration –

According to Fox News reporter Bill Melugin, there were over 9,400 encounters with illegal aliens at the US southern border in the last 24 hours. Of those, over 5,800 were released into the United States, according to CBP sources who spoke to Bill Melugin

OBSERVATION - One of the largest daily totals yet!

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Nov 12, 2023

The Russian army has lost a considerable amount of armor/tanks and personnel in the fight to take Adviivka, causing that offensive to stall considerably and resort to “meat” attacks.

With the arrival of the muddy season, significant offensive actions by Russia are unlikely.

Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.

*****

Another incident in Buryatia has been reported. According to the Russian TG channel “Mash” an IED was planted on the tracks.

“The explosive device detonated on the night of November 29-30, four kilometers from the village of Taksimo.

In total, the train contained 41 tank cars with fuel, 3 with aviation fuel and 6 with ferrous metal. No (human) casualties are reported.”

This is the same night where 100km away from this incident the other train in the Severomuysky Tunnel was struck. Kyiv Post said that a Ukrainian operation of the SBU is responsible for the strike and the SBU is certainly capable of this, but there could be also another explanation. The people of Buryatia are disproportionately used in Russia’s wars and suffered huge losses. I wouldn’t be surprised that this is the work of rebels. But that is speculation on my part.

Either way, Moscow has more problems in the Far East than it is willing to admit. Chelyabinsk suffered also a huge blow when the tractor factory was compromised some days ago.

OBSERVATION - Russia is a large country, with many vulnerabilities in its eastern areas. Infiltration of special ops into this area can cause all kinds of problems. Plus as noted, the people in this region are not too favorably disposed towards it rulers in Moscow.

Also note that the second train hit reportedly has occurred IN the tunnel, not near as I reported yesterday.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 30 -40 degree range with rain and/or snow across the forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 18 of 25 Shahed drones and Kh-59 cruise missile

Outlook —-
Weather and mud conditions are dictating operations. Ground action currently at a minimum

Europe / NATO General –

In rural communities in Ireland are setting up roadblocks to stop migrants entering the areas. The so-called ‘vigilante patrols’ ask for passports & other identification.

OBSERVATION - Meanwhile, its parliament is becoming pro-migrant and essentially criminalizing Irish citizens for opposition.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- The ‘pause’ ended overnight after Hamas failed to uphold its end of the deal for hostages and fired rockets into Israel.

GENERAL ——————————-

Israel rebuked SoS Blinken overnight -

Israel Defense Minister Yoav Gallant with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken: “We will carry on with this war until we win it - until we defeat Hamas, dismantle all its governing capabilities, and return all the hostage - I repeat - all the hostages back to their homes. We know that in terms of the goals of the operation we are united with the U.S. and we greatly appreciate this - thank you very much Mr. Secretary of State.”

Blinken was in Israel to press for an extension of the ‘pause’ and move to a ceasefire. Blinken further pushed for Israeli acceptance of a ‘two state’ solution. He further said Israel doesn’t :”I don’t think you have the credit for that.” in reference to the continuation of the war in S Gaza.

Statement by the Prime Minister’s Office: The Hamas-ISIS terrorist organization has violated the outline. It has not met its obligation to release all of the women hostages today and has launched rockets at Israeli citizens.Upon the resumption of fighting, we emphasize: The Government of Israel is committed to achieving the goals of the war: Releasing the hostages, eliminating Hamas and ensuring that Gaza never again constitutes a threat to the residents of Israel.

An Israeli official said that during the night, talks have taken place with the Qatari and Egyptian mediators, but Hamas didn’t provide any list of hostages it is willing to release.

GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Seems Israeli restart of combat is focusing on the area around Jabalia camp in the northern Gaza Strip. Israel has also bombed areas in S Gaza as well, with intense bombardment on the Rafah and Al-Qarara areas in the southern Gaza Strip

Hamas targeted Ashkelon, Sderot, and Beersheba with rocket attacks.

Israel is dropping leaflets into the southern city of Khan Younis, designating it as a ‘combat zone’ and asking people to leave to Rafah.

The Israeli army has published an interactive map splitting the Gaza Strip into hundreds of small zones, which it will use to notify Palestinian civilians of active combat zones.

LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Rocket sirens sounded in the Upper Galilee indicating that Hezbollah is resuming its attacks on border communities.

Accordingly, the Israeli army raised the state of alert on the border with Lebanon. IDF fired artillery at Hezbollah positions.

WEST BANK——————————-

More police raids to arrest Hamas affiliated terrorists.

“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

An explosion occurred at a Houthi military base near the Capital City of Sana’a in western Yemen with some claiming that it was caused by a possible airstrike; so far U.S. Defense Officials have denied any sort of strike, but there has been no comment yet by Israel. Not many details since, but the explosion is rumored to have occurred at an ammunition depot on the base.

INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Gaza truce talks with Qatari, Egyptian mediators ‘ongoing’, despite renewed fighting: source.

FORECAST ————————-

Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - Its back on again. It will be harder to convince Israel into another ‘pause’ given the games Hamas played at the very end, plus the documented abuse of hostages that were released. UN agents and hospital personnel joining the terrorists - being noted by the media in a begrudging manner - has stripped the veneer of Hamas being any kind of ‘good’ guy.

Also, since most of the women and children have been released, less heart tugs on the Israeli people. Not to be harsh or uncaring, the remaining are adults and many affiliated with the IDF. Israel may bite the lip and continue the fight knowing that these hostages are likely dead men walking anyway.

As this continues, Israel will progressively target S Gaza while finishing up cleaning up the north. North will likely take a couple more weeks. South will be more of a challenge as a substantial portion of the northern population fled south and unless Egypt or Jordan relents, they have no place to go.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Authorities in Ireland are set to be given access to private social media conversations in order to spy on anti-mass migration sentiment following the riots in Dublin.

Now Irish people who share spicy memes in WhatsApp chat groups are going to be under government surveillance should this new ‘hate speech’ legislation pass.

“Gardai will be able to access and intercept private conversations on social media sites under new legislation, as the Justice Minister promised to crack down on crime following the riots in Dublin,” reports the Irish Times.

The new legislation will also empower authorities to demand “cell site location data” from cellphone companies to help them locate dissidents.
According to the critics, the new law would create “de facto mass surveillance of the entire population.”

https://www.americanpartisan.org/2023/11/ireland-authorities-demand-access-to-private-social-media-conversations-to-spy-on-anti-mass-migration-sentiment/

OBSERVATION - Mass surveillance is one of the major keys the globalists will rely on to enforce its mandates. This is not unlike the level of surveillance those of us old enough to remember in the Soviet Union and E. Germany. This however is lightyears more invasive and broad based.

IN RELATED - I’ve noted earlier about revelations that - the White House, relying on a set of privacy loopholes, has been sidestepping the Fourth Amendment by paying AT&T to allow federal, state, and local law enforcement to access—without a warrant—the phone records of Americans who are not suspected of a crime.

This goes way beyond the NSA’s metadata collection program.
Operated during the Obama, Trump and now the Biden presidencies, this secret dragnet surveillance program (formerly known as Hemisphere and now dubbed Data Analytical Services) uses its association with the White House to sidestep a vast array of privacy and transparency laws.

https://www.americanpartisan.org/2023/11/the-white-house-goes-rogue-secret-surveillance-program-breaks-all-the-laws/

Intrusive surveillance of the public, its not just for red state conservatives any more.

***
An agreement has been forged between the European Parliament and the Council of the European Union to establish the creation of new EU Digital Identity Wallets that will include digital versions of all ID cards, driving licenses, degree certificates, and medical documentation.

For the time being, the EU’s Digital Identity Wallet will be voluntary, and the European Commission is insistent that it is 100 percent secure. Spain’s president even commented that the new platform will make the EU as a whole a digital leader at a global level for the preservation of democratic values.

OBSERVATION - Of note again, the whole combined digital ‘wallet’ containing ID, vaccination status, financial data, etc.

NOTE - Again, the theme of ‘surveillance’ is very present with this digital ‘wallet’ scheme, for any time it is used, the state is notified.
Also note - Spain’s president is an avowed socialist and is under fire by Spanish citizens for his back door deal to try to stay in power.

***
The Biden administration has pledged millions of dollars to a de facto international “climate reparations” fund at the United Nations (UN) climate summit in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

The fund, referred to by its proponents as a “loss and damage fund,” is intended to have developed countries transfer money to the developing world as compensation for the impacts of climate change. The U.S. promised more than $17 million to the fund on Thursday, according to Axios.

OBSERVATION - This is simply a renamed “climate reparations” program to redistribute wealth from the West to the third world.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

The latest push to curb Second Amendment rights comes in the form of a Democrat-led bill that seeks to impose a sweeping firearms ban with exceptions that gun rights groups say are so fuzzy that the prohibition could prohibit nearly all semi-automatic handguns.

Generally, the key idea of the bill is to ban firearms that can be fired quickly (along with accessories that increase firing speed) and have the ability to accept magazines with a capacity of 10 rounds or more, all in a bid to limit “a firearm’s ability to inflict maximum harm in a short amount of time.”

OBSERVATION - The left’s press to destroy the 2d amendment has grown over the past few years - above that of the historical trend. It is important to note that should the democrats regain control of congress and maintain control of the WH, this bill will be passed and signed. The govt that demands its citizenry be disarmed is a govt poised to commit atrocities in the so called names of freedom and democracy.

Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.

The federal investigation into the illegal Chinese sponsored biolab in kalifornia has gotten no where fast. In testimony, not a single container has been tested to confirm its contents, nor any significant criminal actions/investigations into the owners, operators or funders of the facility.
The money trail has been traced back to China, but so far the intermediaries are still walking.

***
More than a dozen synagogues in New York received bomb threats on Friday, according to reports in Jewish media. Synagogues have commonly received such threats, but the recent spat seem to have a more sinister angle to them in the light of the Gaza war.

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics – HEIGHTENED ALERT STATUS

The White Lung Syndrome has hit or has countries on high alert status -

- Denmark,
- Sweden,
- UK,
- Netherlands,
- Vietnam,
- Taiwan,
- Nepal,
- India,
- Thailand,
- Singapore,
- Indonesia,
- Switzerland and
- US

POLITICAL FRONT –

Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa., said Friday that after the House expelled Rep. George Santos, R-N.Y., the Senate needs to boot Sen. Bob Menendez, D-N.J., whose criminal allegations are “more sinister” than what Santos faces.

OBSERVATION - I’m rather shocked at some of the very common sense things Fetterman has done recently, from his support of Israel to this. He is 100% right on this issue.

Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT
A ransomware infection at a cloud IT provider has disrupted services for 60 or so credit unions across the US, all of which were relying on the attacked vendor. …

This is according to the National Credit Union Administration, which on Friday told The Register it is fire-fighting the situation with the credit unions downed this week by the intrusion. The NCUA regulates and insures these financial orgs.

“I can confirm that approximately 60 credit unions are currently experiencing some level of outage due to a ransomware attack at a third-party service provider,” the NCUA spokesperson said. “Member deposits at affected federally insured credit unions are insured by the National Credit Union Share Insurance Fund up to $250,000.”

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/60-us-credit-unions-offline-after-ransomware-infects-backend-cloud-outfit/ar-AA1kRVhA?rc=1&ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=4afe9389c9c944d6bb7328e216470974&ei=12

Illegal Immigration –

A federal appeals court ruled Friday that Texas must take down its buoy barrier in the Rio Grande, citing threats to navigation and human life. It’s a win for the Biden administration and a setback for Texas, which has maintained it must take unilateral action to stem the flow of illegals in the absence of a coherent immigration plan from the White House.

RELATED - U.S. District Judge Alia Moses issued an emergency order in October that prevented Border Patrol agents from cutting razor wire in Eagle Pass, except in emergencies. On Wednesday, she ruled that the state had not met the requirements for a wider preliminary injunction. She said that the razor wire has proved to be an effective deterrent against illegal immigrants all along the Texas border.

“The law may be on the side of the Defendants and compel a resolution in their favor today, but it does not excuse their culpable and duplicitous conduct,” Moses wrote. “The evidence presented amply demonstrates the utter failure of the Defendants to deter, prevent, and halt unlawful entry into the United States.”

On Thursday, Texas filed an appeal with the conservative-leaning 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals.

“I am disappointed that the federal government’s blatant and disturbing efforts to subvert law and order at our State’s border with Mexico will be allowed to continue,” Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton said in a statement.

OBSERVATION - Basically, the Border Patrol can declare there to be a “medical emergency” and cut the wire to help the ‘sick’ individual - meanwhile letting hundreds of his compadres into the country illegally.

China –

Thitu Island is another disputed spot in the Spratly Islands which China claims as its own but which the Philippines has occupied for some time. Today the Philippines announced it was building a new station on the island designed to monitor the movement of Chinese ships.

The coastguard station would be equipped with “advanced systems”, including radar, satellite communication, coastal cameras and vessel traffic management, Ano said.

The station has been built and is expected to be operational early next year.

Even as this announcement was made, China declared the island to be its territory and 18 suspected Chinese militia ships scattered off Thitu, including a Chinese navy vessel.

OBSERVATION - A direct challenge to China and may result in Chinese attempting a blockade of sorts has it has on other Philippine islands to force them off.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Nov 12, 2023

The Russian army has lost a considerable amount of armor/tanks and personnel in the fight to take Adviivka, causing that offensive to stall considerably and resort to “meat” attacks.

With the arrival of the muddy season, significant offensive actions by Russia are unlikely.

Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.

*****

Follow up on the two trains and rail lines attacked earlier this week. I noted that one hit the train when it was transiting a critical tunnel. I see reports now that the second train was hit on a strategic bridge that is the alternate route made necessary because of the tunnel closure - causing significant damage to the bridge. This was a well thought out operation if this is the case.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 30 -40 degree range with rain and/or snow across the forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 10 of 11 Shahed drones and Kh-59 cruise missiles. Several associated explosions were reported in Dnipro city.
Ground action in Bakhmut, Adviivka and Krynky increased overnight. No significant territory changes though.

Outlook —-
Weather and mud conditions are dictating operations. Ground action currently at a minimum

Europe / NATO General –

Anti-migrant views continue to boil in many European nations with some of those nations siding with the lawless immigrants, causing further enragement.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- IAF stuck targets throughout Gaza. Hamas managed some rocket fire.

GENERAL ——————————-

Hamas has no regrets over October 7, ‘war of liberation’ is coming - official Osama Hamden, a senior official in Hamas, insisted that Hamas did not regret the October 7 attack and that a larger “war of liberation is coming.

***
To date, 110 people have returned to Israel. Eighty-six are Israelis and 24 foreign citizens. According to the latest numbers, 137 remain in captivity. Of those, 20 are women and 117 are men. They include 126 Israelis and 11 foreigners.

Israel army says 6 Gaza hostages confirmed dead. Israel did not say how or when the six died but said they perished while being held in Gaza.

***
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken returned to the Mideast this week pressing for agreements to extend the Gaza cease-fire, step up the release of hostages held by Hamas, and limit Palestinian civilian casualties if fighting with Israel resumed. He left Friday with his goals largely unfulfilled.

OBSERVATION - It is pretty clear that the biden regimen is attempting to dictate how Israel is to fight this war. Israel pushed back and in someways told blinken to pound sand. Hamas abuse of the released hostages, and the overwhelming likelihood that the remaining ones are receiving the same if not more, is steeling Israeli resolve.

***
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has ordered the Mossad and other intelligence agencies to hunt down and kill Hamas leaders in Lebanon, Turkey and Qatar in the coming years once the current war in Gaza tapers off, the WSJ reported, citing Israeli officials. In the past, Israel has avoided targeting members of the Palestinian-based group in other countries to preclude diplomatic crises.

“I have instructed the Mossad to act against the heads of Hamas wherever they are,” Netanyahu said in a televised address on Nov. 22, according to the WSJ.

OBSERVATION - After the Munich Olympics terror attack on the Israeli athletes, the Mossad conducted similar operations. Dubbed “Operation Wrath of God” it was a covert operation directed by Mossad to assassinate individuals they accused of being involved in the 1972 Munich massacre. The targets were members of the Palestinian armed militant group Black September and operatives of the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO).

GAZA FRONT ———————————-

The Israel Defense Forces said Saturday morning that it struck over 400 terror sites in the Gaza Strip in the past 24 hours, as the war against Hamas resumed following a week-long ceasefire.

Airstrikes overnight Friday included an “extensive” wave of more than 50 attacks on Hamas infrastructure in the Khan Yunis area in southern Gaza, according to the military.

LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Israel struck Hezbollah / Hamas affiliated sites all along the border with artillery and air strikes.

SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

See SYRIA below for IAF strike on Iranian related facilities in the Damascus area.

WEST BANK——————————-

More police raids to arrest Hamas affiliated terrorists.

FORECAST ————————-

Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - Israel resumes the methodical elimination of Hamas forces in the north, while beginning to shape the battlefield in the south. The world seems a lot quieter since the conditions the hostages were and still are being held were revealed along with the smackdown global media got regarding Hamas establishing military bases under Hospitals and other recognized ‘off limits’ facilities. Included in this is the active participation of UN personnel in the Hostage holding.

The process will take weeks in the north and like many months in the south. There is some scuttlebutt that some arab countries/leaders are secretly rooting for Israel as they see Hamas as a boil on the global arab movement in general. Ever wonder why no arab state wants to take them in?

Syria -

Local sources claim that an HQ of the IRGC-affiliated militias was targeted near Sayyidah Zaynab, Damascus Syria

Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -

Venezuela - Increasing

Tomorrow a referendum is scheduled to be voted on as to whether or not invade neighboring Guyana and seize territory it claims to be its own.

Globalism / Great Reset –

The Biden Administration is forging ahead with its green agenda by committing the United States to not building any new coal plants and phasing out existing plants.

U.S. Special Envoy for Climate John Kerry announced at the annual United Nations climate change summit, known as COP28 and which is being held in Dubai, although no date was given for when the existing plants would have to go.

“We will be working to accelerate unabated coal phase-out across the world, building stronger economies and more resilient communities,” Kerry said in a statement.

OBSERVATION - Alarm bells are ringing across America and around the world that the shut down of these plants will endanger human lives because the green solutions being pushed do not have the capability to replace the reliant and steady power from coal/natural gas plants. Britain and India have already seen that light.

***
King Charles has demanded that taxpayers around the globe cough up $5 trillion every year in order to advance the globalist “Net Zero” agenda. He said that “they” needed $4.5 to $5 trillion per year to drive the transformation that’s needed because of “climate change.”

OBSERVATION - This move towards some sort of global tax will likely be one of the lead items over the course of the next year.

Economy –

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday kept the possibility of another interest rate hike in play this year, despite cooling inflation.

“It would be premature to conclude with confidence that we have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance, or to speculate on when policy might ease,” Powell said in remarks prepared for delivery at Spelman College in Atlanta. “We are prepared to tighten policy further if it becomes appropriate to do so.”
Powell’s comments come shortly after the Fed voted to hold interest rates steady at a range of 5.25% to 5.5%, the highest level in 22 years.

OBSERVATION - Continued high rates are a cancer eating the body of the economy and in some ways just as bad as inflation.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

Hundreds of Big Apple supermarket and bodega owners are arming themselves as the epidemic of violent theft continues to plague their businesses.
Over the past year, the United Bodegas of America and the Bodega and Small Business Group said they’ve helped at least 230 store owners apply for their gun licenses, connecting them with concealed-carry classes required by the state to obtain a permit.

The National Supermarket Association, which represents roughly 600 independent grocers, estimated a quarter of its members in the city are packing heat, compared to 10% pre-pandemic.

OBSERVATION - Our country (and world) is drifting deeper and deeper into lawlessness - and deliberately so as guided by the powers that be. Law enforcement cannot provide security and where they do, the Soros-backed DA’s and blue leadership have stripped the courts of any action - tossing violent criminals back onto the streets without even a slap on the hand. This trend now only portends the shift to vigilantism - and more violence.

***
Pro-Palestinian protesters chanting for “intifada revolution” in the heart of New York City just before they stormed a shopping center.

OBSERVATION - The MO is clearly shifted to one of intimidation and vandalism of the general public.

Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.

Las Vegas’ KLAS reported Friday that “Las Vegas police and the FBI thwarted a potential terror plot involving a 16-year-old.”

Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department (LVMPD) held a press conference Friday to give the details of the investigation. An LVMPD official displayed a message that the teen had posted on a social media platform, which said: “Peace be upon all brothers who see this. I am here to announce that I will be starting lone wolf operations in Las Vegas against the enemies of Allah. I ask you to make Dua [prayers] for victory. I am a supporter of the Islamic State, and I will make sure the Zionists in this city know it.” Along with this message, the post featured an image of the flag of the Islamic State (ISIS).

This message was, the Vegas police explained, the handiwork of a local 16-year-old whom they said was “a recent convert to Islam.” When they arrested this boy, police “found components for building an improvised explosive device along with bomb-making recipes and instructions.” As if that weren’t enough, they also found “terrorism propaganda, a handmade ISIS flag, a headband and patches.”

OBSERVATION - An example of the growing threat from ‘lone wolf’ attacks. See also Europe for recent similar lone wolf attacks.

Biden / Harris Watch –
HARRIS - “We have to revitalize the Palestinian Authority”

IMHO the only ‘revitalization’ that will work is one of extermination.

Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT

US federal agencies have warned that an Iran-linked hacking group is targeting Israeli-made devices used in multiple US industries, including water systems.
The agencies that issued the warning include the FBI, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), and the National Security Agency (NSA), with the Israel National Cyber Directorate (INCD) joining the U.S. agencies in the advisory.

The Iranian IRGC-linked cyberattack groups involved are known variously as CyberAv3ngers, CyberAveng3rs, or Cyber Avengers.

OBSERVATION - These groups are only a portion of the numerous groups - some state sponsored - trying our cybersecurity on key infrastructure systems. Most penetrations are still the result of stupid moves by individuals at the targeted operation allowing these groups to gain back doors into the operating systems.

Illegal Immigration –

Border Patrol agents encountered nearly 190,000 migrants in November who crossed the southwest border between ports of entry, according to unofficial Border Patrol reports reviewed by Breitbart Texas. The November migrant apprehensions bring the total encounters for the first two months of the new fiscal year to approximately 379,000 migrants.

OBSERVATION - Conditions continue to worsen along the border

***
The Veterans Administration is receiving well deserved heat for delaying processing of veterans medical needs and handling about 169,000 illegals medical claims.

North/South Korea –

North Korea has announced that any interference with its satellite operations will be considered an act of war, provoking the “mobilization of its deterrent potential”. As reported by the official KCNA agency, this would result in the “elimination of the survival capability” of U.S. spy satellites.

“If the United States tries to infringe upon the rights of a sovereign state, we will exercise our international and national rights to diminish and eradicate the survival abilities of U.S. spy satellites,” says the message relayed by the KCNA, a statement from the spokesperson of the Pyongyang defense ministry.

OBSERVATION - This is language that goes back to the pre-Trump era.

Phillipines –

Four people have been killed in an explosion at a Catholic Mass in the southern Philippines on Sunday morning. The incident occurred at the gymnasium of Mindanao State University in Marawi, the country’s largest Muslim city. Masses on Sunday drew larger crowds than usual across the Philippines as it is the start of Advent, the Catholic Church’s four-week vigil to Christmas Day.

The Daulah Islamiyah-Maute Group could be behind Sunday’s bombing, said Brig Gen Allan Nobleza, the police commander in the region.

OBSERVATION - The Philippines has had islamic problems for decades and this latest is likely a response to the Gaza war where islamists across the world have protested not only Israel but the countries they are residing in.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Nov 12, 2023

The Russian army has lost a considerable amount of armor/tanks and personnel in the fight to take Adviivka, causing that offensive to stall considerably and resort to “meat” attacks.

With the arrival of the muddy season, significant offensive actions by Russia are unlikely.

Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.

*****

The net and boom defenses are reportedly back in place at the Sevastopol harbor entrance.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 30 -40 degree range with rain and/or snow across the forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia launched a renewed assault on Avdiivka, taking very heavy casualties in both men and equipment.

Outlook —-
Weather and mud conditions are dictating operations. Ground action currently at a minimum but is expected to increase as precipitation decreases.

Europe / NATO General –

1 killed and 2 wounded in suspected terror attack in Paris. Witnesses say the attacker shouted “Allahu Ahkbar” and started stabbing people at random on the street.

An Islamist terror against a German Christmas market has been foiled. Police arrested 2 migrants suspected of planning to “burn infidels” and drive a truck into a Christmas market in Cologne.

OBSERVATION - Two more examples of growing movement towards ‘lone wolf’ terror attacks.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Hamas et al manages to launch several large barrages into Israel.

- Israel conduction battlefield shaping strikes in S Gaza

- Hamas refuses to consider any father hostage releases until the war is ‘over’.

GENERAL ——————————-

The deputy leader of the Hamas political executive Saleh al-Arouri stated Saturday that “there is currently no negotiation regarding a ceasefire, nor release of captives until war ends.”

In an interview with Al Jazeera al-Arouri added “The remaining prisoners in Gaza include soldiers and civilians serving in the occupying army. We’ve stated that we are capable of exchanging bodies for bodies in the hands of the Israelis, but it will take time. From our perspective, the elderly Israeli captives are considered soldiers since some of them are still in reserves.

OBSERVATION - Hamas fired its only significant ‘hostage’ bullet and it didn’t have the ability to stop Israel. Israel’s resolve is far different from their last fights, and Hamas is out of the ability to milk that beast.

***
Israel recently informed Egypt, Jordan, and the United Arab Emirates of its post-war plan, according to Reuters. Egypt signed a peace treaty with Israel in 1979, and the UAE normalized its relationship with the Jewish state in 2020.
The report noted that Israel also informed Saudi Arabia of its post-war plan. Saudi Arabia and Israel’s goal of normalization suddenly fell through on October 7, which was set to be mediated by the U.S. Turkey was another country informed of Israel’s plan.

OBSERVATION - One clear Israeli goal is to try to establish some kind of demilitarized zone to prevent new rocket launching sites to be constructed in N Gaza that could strike heavily populated areas in the N Israel.

***
The United Nations has yet to condemn Hamas, although it has been quite free in its condemnations of Israel’s response to the vicious attacks of October 7. It took 55 days before UN Women condemned Hamas attacks. UN Women is the United Nations entity dedicated to gender equality and the empowerment of women.

GAZA FRONT ———————————-

IDF continued to pound N Gaza while increasing the number and intensity of attacks in S Gaza.

The operational ‘pause’ clearly allowed Hamas et al to bring some of its rocket launching capabilities back on line and have launched several large barrages. These attacks had very little impact on areas targeted.

The IDF revealed Saturday that it had found dozens of rockets in a private home in Gaza City underneath boxes labeled for the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), the institution devoted solely to Palestinian refugees.

***
Israeli forces have found 800 shafts leading to Hamas’ vast subterranean network of tunnels and bunkers since a Gaza ground operation began on Oct 27, and have destroyed more than half of them, the military said on Sunday.

***
Israel’s military on Sunday ordered more areas in and around Gaza’s second-largest city of Khan Younis to evacuate. This indicates that Israel is increasingly readying its forces to move into Hamas strongholds in the south.

LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Lebanese sources report spotting Israeli F-15s in the skies of Beirut.

Hezbollah continues to target Israeli border positions with ATGMs, rockets and mortars. Fire is concentrated in the northern most tips of Israel.

IDF hits back with air and artillery strikes. IDF hitting targets all along the border - an expansion of its efforts.

SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Overnight, a rocket was fired from Syria at northern Israel, landing in an open area. The Israeli army says it shelled the source of fire with artillery.

Israeli airstrikes near Damascus early Saturday killed two Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Generals. Iran said Mohammad Ali Atai Shoorcheh and Panah Taghizadeh were “martyred” while advising the Syrian military, and blamed “Zionists” for their deaths.

WEST BANK——————————-

Israeli security forces stormed Askar camp, east of Nablus.

“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

The Syrian Observatory reports that rockets targeted an American base in the Hasakah countryside.

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq targeted the Kharab al-Jir base in the Hasakah countryside with a large missile salvo.

INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Pro-Hamas ‘protests’ continue in major cities around Europe.

FORECAST ————————-

Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - Israel resumes the methodical elimination of Hamas forces in the north, while beginning to shape the battlefield in the south. The possibility of any further hostage exchange ‘pauses’ was pretty well closed out by Hamas. The only card they have left in their hand is the poor civilian ‘victims’. Post ‘pause’ that card hasn’t been playing well either. That may be in part due to the revelations that UNRWA and other NGOs have been playing a greater role in the support of Hamas than global media was originally admitting.

I suspect that once the current COP is ended, more pressure on Israel will resume to try to force a cease fire. I don’t see that being successful in the near term, Israel is pretty well set at finishing this fight on their own terms.

Venezuela - Increasing

Voting today on a referendum whether or not to seize the western 2/3 of Guyana. Since the govt wants to do so, it is pretty well certain that the vote results will be fixed to that end.

I’m not commenting of a lot of today’s post. Got a SAR callout last night and didn’t get home until oh dark thirty this morning. Most of the snippets speak for themselves though.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Dissension in the ranks!!! - COP28 president Sultan Al Jaber says there is “no science” behind demands for phase-out of fossil fuels “unless you want to take the world back into caves.

***
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has announced a digital agreement with the European Union (EU) to advance the implementation of a digital identification system and to counter online “disinformation.”

Under the agreement, both Canada and the EU will “work jointly in building on respective bilateral and multilateral cooperation fora such as the G7, G20, OECD, UN and WTO.”

Trudeau has repeatedly shown his loyalty to both EU and United Nation (UN) goals, apparently placing them above the well-being of Canadians.

Economy –

Qualcomm has revealed plans to chop scores of jobs in the Bay Area, cutbacks that have brought the region’s tech layoffs to a grim economic benchmark. …During 2022 and so far in 2023, tech companies have revealed plans to eliminate more than 30,000 jobs in the Bay Area, With the new job cuts the Bay Area has now passed a forbidding milestone for tech layoffs.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

Tulsi Gabbard. on X posted -

“By claiming ‘Trump will be like Hitler,’ neocons & Dem establishment rationalize their weaponizing of govt agencies, embolden those in power to further abuse their power, and may encourage a lone wolf to do what people say should have been done to Hitler before he took power. We must send a very direct & clear message at the voting booth that we completely reject these anti-Americans.”

OBSERVATION - Kinda what Ive been saying about the left’s labeling of the right across the spectrum. Preparing the information and the mental/propaganda battlefield.

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics – HEIGHTENED ALERT STATUS

Multiple lawsuits are looming over Pfizer after the vaccine manufacturer allegedly failed to disclose a specific DNA sequence in their COVID vaccine. Fraud

Biden / Harris Watch –

Harris tells world leaders they “must do more” to fight against those who “deny climate science.”

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Nov 12, 2023

The Russian army has lost a considerable amount of armor/tanks and personnel in the fight to take Adviivka, causing that offensive to stall considerably and resort to “meat” attacks.

With the arrival of the muddy season, significant offensive actions by Russia are unlikely.

Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 30 -40 degree range with rain and/or snow across the forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian Air defense shot down 18 of 23 Shahed drones and Kh-59 missile.

Russian Territory –
3 explosions were reported near Rostov on Don

Outlook —-
Weather and mud conditions are dictating operations. Ground action currently at a minimum but is expected to increase as precipitation decreases and the ground starts to dry or freeze. Also seems that Russia has been able to restore some of their artillery capabilities and focusing on the eastern and southern fronts.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- The Israeli military says it’s expanding its ground operation into “all areas” of the Gaza Strip

- Houthi attack two commercial ships and a US Destroyer in the Red Sea.

GENERAL ——————————-

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pledged not to repeat the mistakes made under the Oslo Accords by allowing the Palestinian Authority to return to Gaza after its military campaign to oust Hamas from that enclave is over. “One thing for sure I am not doing. I am not ready to delude myself to say that the defective act that took place under Oslo through a terrible error” must now take place a second time with the return of a “hostile entity” to Gaza and the West Bank, he told reporters on Saturday night.

GAZA FRONT ———————————-

The Israeli army began to operate on the ground using ground forces also in the south of the Gaza Strip, north of Khan Yunis. There are armored forces in the area that have already begun to operate and attack Hamas targets.

Israel Defense Forces (IDF) launched the ground operation in southern Gaza, as combat against Hamas jihadists continues in the northern part of the Strip, Chief of General Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi confirmed on Sunday.

Speaking to troops in southern Israel, Halevi said “yesterday, today, we wiped out Hamas battalion commanders and operatives. Yesterday morning we launched the same type of ground operation in the south of the Gaza Strip.”

“It will be no less powerful than in northern Gaza, it will produce comparable results,” Halevi added. “The Hamas commanders will face IDF everywhere they go.”

Reports that an armor brigade has penetrated from Israel into the central portion of the S Gaza section- essentially cutting S Gaza in half. The tip of the penetration is the eastern portions of Khan Yunis.

LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Eleven IDF soldiers and one Israeli civilian were wounded by a Hezbollah anti-tank missile on Sunday that struck a vehicle in the Beit Hillel area. IDF artillery hit the source of the fire, while other Hezbollah locations were struck by the air force.

SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Syrian reports that Israel attacked a location in the Quneitra countryside earlier today following rocket fire into Israeli territory

WEST BANK——————————-

Israeli security forces stormed Askar camp, east of Nablus.

“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Iranian Sources are reporting that at least 5 Members of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq have been Killed as a result of a U.S. Airstrike near Kirkuk in Northern Iraq; the Islamic Resistance is Responsible for almost 100 Attacks on U.S. Forces in Iraq and Syria since October 7th.

Iranian militia targeted the Al-Omar Oil Field military base & the Green Village east of Deir ez-Zur

***
US Central Command: We will discuss with partners all ways to respond to Houthi attacks.

Destroyer USS Carney (DDG-64) shot down three drones in the Red Sea on Sunday while responding to distress calls from several commercial vessels that were attacked by missiles originating in Yemen, according to U.S. Central Command.

“At approximately 9:15 a.m. Sanaa time, Carney detected an anti-ship ballistic missile attack fired from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen toward the M/V Unity Explorer, impacting in the vicinity of the vessel,” CENTCOM said in a statement.
Several hours later, Carney downed a drone originating from a Houthi-controlled part of Yemen.

“The drone was headed toward Carney although its specific target is not clear. We cannot assess at this time whether the Carney was a target of the UAVs. There was no damage to the U.S. vessel or injuries to personnel,” the statement continued.

About a half hour after Carney shot down the first drone, Unity Explorer put out a distress call, saying a missile originating from Houthi-controlled Yemen hit the bulk carrier. While evaluating damage to Unity Explorer, Carney shot down another drone. There was no damage to the destroyer and no injuries on either ship, but Unity Explorer sustained “minor damage” in the earlier missile strike, according to the CENTCOM statement.

About three hours later, a missile from a Houthi-controlled part of Yemen hit a second commercial ship, M/V Number 9. The ship sustained some damage, but did not experience any casualties.

One hour after the attack on M/V Number 9, bulk carrier M/V Sophie II put out a distress call after getting hit by a missile while operating in the Red Sea.

The Israelis reportedly will deploy several navy vessels and a submarine to the Red Sea, in light of the strikes against shipping in the region by the Houthi.

FORECAST ————————-

Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - Israel resumes the methodical elimination of Hamas forces in the north while expanding ground operations in S Gaza.

Israel has likely caught Hamas flat footed with the armor incursion into S Gaza. While the IDF announces that it is a large as the effort north, this appears to be a strong recon in force. This is similar to initial operations in N Gaza. This action is a lot sooner than many had expected.

How quickly IDF will transition from recon in force to full out invasion of the south remains to be seen, but if it follows the pattern in the north, that could easily be by the end of this week.

Clean up operations in the north progress. Hamas still has limited capabilities to launch rockets but after the several barrages after the fighting resumed, their attacks have greatly diminished.

IDF continues to hit a broad range of Hezbollah targets along the border region and is refraining from going after deeper targets. Much of the Hezbollah attacks are essentially harassment fire utilizing ATGMs.

Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have gotten bolder and the time is come to bloody their nose. About 10% of global shipping goes thru the Red Seat to/from the Suez canal and any escalation in attacks could cause shippers to divert around the horn of Africa, increasing shipping time and costs. A ‘proportionate’ retaliatory strike would not be enough to dissuade the Houthi’s continued attacks.

Finally, globally, the call to minimize civilian casualties in Gaza is the key bleat to try to muzzle Israeli attacks throughout Gaza. So far the reverberations from the testimony of the released hostages and the Hamas attitude towards the remaining have dampened a lot of the PR campaign against Israel, IMHO. This will not last long as the drum beat of lies will cycle up. One example has been the use of dolls by Hamas PR to represent dead children from IDF attacks.

Venezuela - Increasing

Venezuelans have approved a referendum called by the government of President Nicolás Maduro to claim sovereignty over an oil- and mineral-rich piece of neighbouring Guyana, the country’s electoral authority announced.

Few voters could be seen at voting centres, but the National Electoral Council claimed more than 10.5 million ballots were cast in the country of 20 million eligible voters.

Venezuela has long argued the territory, which comprises two-thirds of Guyana, was stolen when the border was drawn more than a century ago. But Guyana considers the referendum a step toward annexation, and the vote has its residents on edge.

OBSERVATION - Key drivers - weak US foreign policy but perhaps even bigger is the recent large oil deposits found off shore of the now disputed territory. Maduro is looking to expand Venezuela’s power in the region and this is likely his first step.

OTOH, this action may instigate other territorial ‘expansions’ by other countries in Central and S America - potentially creating a number of local/regional conflicts.

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