Replies

Globalism / Great Reset –

The newly sworn-in New Zealand government intends not to be pushed around by UN resolutions or by the World Health Organization anymore. According to a coalition agreement with New Zealand First, the new government will undertake a “National Interest Test” before accepting any agreements from the United Nations or the World Health Organization’s proposed amendments to the International Health Regulations.

OBSERVATION - Growing pushback on these new WHO regulations designed to subjugate countries to the globalist narrative.

***
A lead United Nations agency overseeing food and agriculture policy is expected to issue a road map in the coming weeks which will call on the West, including America, to dramatically reduce its meat consumption.
The UN’s Food & Agriculture Organization (FAO) will publish its so-called global food systems’ road map during the upcoming COP28 climate summit in Dubai which will kick off on Thursday and extend nearly two weeks until mid-December. FAO’s first-of-its-kind document will recommend nations that “over-consume meat” to limit their consumption as part of a broader effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, Bloomberg reported.

“The failure of leading meat and dairy companies to reduce emissions underlines the urgent need for more policy focus on the food and agriculture sector,” Jeremy Coller, the chair and founder of the FAIRR Initiative, an investor network that works with financial institutions to promote climate-friendly agriculture worldwide, said in a recent statement.

“Food system emissions deserve a place at the top of the table, alongside energy and transport, as they represent an estimated third of greenhouse gas emissions and 40% of methane,” he continued. “Investors hope the first-ever publication of a food and agriculture road map at COP28 this month will catalyze the transition to 1.5 degrees and a more sustainable food system.”

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/united-nations-set-call-americans-reduce-meat-consumption

OBSERVATION - Food - a major tool used by tyranny to control the general population. It is not limited beef, they are also targeting vegetable foods - you know, the ones they want you to switch to - because of the carbon foot print they produce as well!
Starvation as a way to control behavior - not a unlikely tool but one used time and again throughout history.

Here in the US of A, it is highly unlikely that such meat consumption proposal will pass congress. So fully expect the regime to start issuing regulatory ‘law’ to force meat producers essentially out of business - forcing the issue.

BY THE WAY - The United Nations agency that is pushing wealthy nations to curb their meat consumption in the name of climate change is led by a top Chinese Communist Party official who is known for using the agency to serve Beijing.

***
Bill Gates is aggressively pushing his plan to experiment with “cashless societies” and “digital IDs” in the African nation of Nigeria.
Gates and his foundation are attempting to eliminate physical money and replace it with “digital cash” that’s linked to a global identification system.

OBSERVATION - Beta testing in a third world country. Designed to work out the bugs for eventual global deployment.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

One thing standing out larger and larger is that in many parts of the US, we have become completely lawless. Crime over the course of the year has skyrocketed, police departments have shrunk and DA’s don’t bother to even force those arrested to post bond, let alone actually go to trial.

***

Attorneys for the Justice Department have revealed documents connected to their search warrant for Donald Trump’s Twitter account, indicating that prosecutors collected a massive collection of data about the former President’s social media activity—including information on every account that liked, followed, or retweeted him.

The extensively redacted search warrant was revealed as a result of a judge’s ruling on November 17, which came after a consortium of media organizations filed an application in August for the warrant and other data to be made public.

OBSERVATION - More and more it becomes apparent that the govt is developing a list of enemies, categorizing and filtering them. Govts have this tendency to eventually use these lists to suppress opposition to the ruling regime. Remember - these same agencies have declared half the country to be domestic terrorists. Throw in a kangaroo court system and bingo - load the trains to the concentration camps.

***
Anti-Israel students were reported running around on campus at University of California Los Angeles UCLA yesterday, brandishing knives while cutting down posters of Israeli civilians kidnapped by Hamas.

OBSERVATION - Using the threat of lethal violence as a way to deter opposition. This is how things escalate to people being seriously injured or killed. Haven’t seen if the campus officials are going to take action against these students or not. If the current trend follows - they are very unlikely to do anything. This will then drive pro-Israel individuals to arm themselves for self defense purposes.

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics – HEIGHTENED ALERT STATUS

The Chinese National Health Commission claims the new surge is caused by a variety of illnesses, such as influenza, rhinovirus, mycoplasma pneumoniae, respiratory syncytial virus and adenovirus, according to the South China Morning Post. Officials are now calling for a reinstatement of pandemic-era lockdown protocols to help curb the outbreak, even though these measures didn’t really do anything the first time around.

WHO has called upon China to release more information about the outbreak. As yet, it’s unclear whether the communist-run nation has provided this information, as they did not provide much of the requested information during the COVID-19 pandemic either.

RELATED - Washington DC is now seeing an uptick in hospital cases due to the mysterious illness.

MORE- The Netherlands is experiencing a bizarre uptick in pneumonia cases among children, marking the second country to report an outbreak of this type this week.

The Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research (NIVEL), a research institute in Utrecht, around 25 miles south of Amsterdam, reports that 80 of every 100,000 children between ages 5 and 14 came down with pneumonia last week.

AND MORE - Public health workers wearing full protective gear have appeared on the streets of northern China, according to footage on social media, evoking memories of the country’s stringent anti-virus measures during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The hazmat-clad personnel were seen spraying disinfectant in public spaces in Sanhe, in China’s northern Hebei Province roughly 50 miles east of capital Beijing, according to the poster of the images and video footage. It remains unclear whether this was a local government initiative or central government directive.

OBSERVATION - China claims no new pathogens have been encountered, but common ones taking advantage of weakened immune systems from the wuhan lockdowns. One is hard pressed to believe China, and they have’t been forthcoming with the WHO either. This is raising concerns that there is more to this than meets the eye. Already it has been documented in recent peer review studies that the jab with the mRNA actually degrades the human immune system on a wide number of fronts - sudden death from heart failures, reproductive issues, “turbo’ cancers, etc.

Now at a closer look, the CDC has been really pushing the jab onto the children - the demographic currently bearing the brunt of this new outbreak - coincidence? I THINK NOT.

***
Pfizer has clearly become the lead for deadly ‘vaccines’.
A recent article published in The British Medical Journal (“The BMJ”) details the debate that has broken out over whether Pfizer should have told pregnant women participating in its trial of maternal respiratory syncytial virus (“RSV”) vaccination that a trial of GSK’s similar vaccine was halted over a safety signal around pre-term birth.
Pfizer’s maternal RSV vaccine is called Abrysvo.
Not only had GSK’s RSV vaccine trials shown a risk of babies being born prematurely but Pfizer was actively studying the risk as an “adverse event of special interest” in its trials.
The BMJ article described its investigation into the safety signal of increased pre-term and neonatal deaths and whether pregnant women who participated in Pfizer’s trial were adequately informed of the risk to their babies.

OBSERVATION - Key is did Pfizer mislead participants and regulatory agencies over these many adverse affects. Given the company history, the answer is a very strong yes.

POLITICAL FRONT –

The U.S. Supreme Court is scheduled to hear oral arguments in Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) v. Jarkesy which could force federal agencies to bring civil suits in federal court instead of using in-house judges.

OBSERVATION - The folks at Forward Observer nail the implications on this one

“The Supreme Court’s affirmation of the 5th Circuit’s decision that the SEC cannot use in-house judges for civil suits could have widespread effects on federal power. Federal regulators like the SEC and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission would be required to bring civil suits in federal courts, instead of using their own in-house judges, which would require agencies to show they have standing to bring the suit in the first place. This case could also revive the “nondelegation doctrine” that Congress cannot delegate law-making authorities to federal agencies, putting another nail in the Chevron Deference coffin and becoming a thorn in the side of the Biden administration’s green energy agenda.”

I’ve noted that the regime has extensively used regulatory ‘law’ to achieve what it cannot pass through congress. Hopefully the USSC rules in favor of the people and not the bureaucrats.

Biden / Harris Watch –

The White House Christmas tree toppling over. Many are describing this as the perfect depiction of Joe Biden and the state of America. US Parks Service says tree may not be salvageable. All this before the official lighting ceremony.

OBSERVATION - I’m not one who is into reading ‘omens’, but this would fit perfectly as one.

Illegal Immigration –

Two separate incidents unfolded in DuPage County, Illinois, during the Black Friday retail rush. On Friday, police were called to a Kohl’s store in the city of Elmhurst after a trio of suspects executed multiple thefts in a short span of time.

“It is alleged that three individuals, later identified as Ledesma Zapata, Saavedra-Omona and Pineda Avendano, entered Kohl’s, selected multiple items of clothing and then left the store without paying for the merchandise,” the County of DuPage explained in a press release.
“It is further alleged that the trio then reentered the store, again selected multiple items of clothing and left the store without paying, at which time they were detained by officers with the Elmhurst Police Department.”

OBSERVATION - Individuals are in the country illegally. Illegals are also being noted in developing/participating in much larger looting organizations. Cartel crime syndicates are growing in the US as well.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Nov 12, 2023

Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Attacks to take Adviivka, located near occupied Donetsk has been their priority as well as further north. However, it is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine.

The Russian army has lost a considerable amount of armor/tanks and personnel in the fight to take Adviivka, causing that offensive to stall considerably and resort to “meat” attacks.

With the arrival of the muddy season, significant offensive actions by Russia are unlikely.

Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.

Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. With the onset of winter, it is believed that Russian is shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for an effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as it did last year. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.

The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s recent attacks on ships in Crimean harbors has forced the majority of the fleet to redeploying out of Crimea and to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.

Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.

*****

NUCLEAR THREATS –

Russia, current chair of the “Big Five” nuclear-armed states, will not convene any meetings this year but has presented the group with a schedule for 2024, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told reporters on Tuesday, according to Russian news agencies.

Russia took over coordination of the group from the U.S. in August. The “Big Five” are the veto-wielding permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, and also include China, France, and Britain.

“We have outlined our proposals on the agenda and the rough schedule, and can apparently expect to receive feedback from other members of the Five,” Ryabkov was quoted as saying.

Kerch Bridge update –

Satellite imagery shows Naval drone defensive guardrails around the Crimean Bridge built by Russia were destroyed by the storm.

Logistics –

Russia has amassed a large missile stockpile ahead of winter, NATO’s Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on Wednesday.

Russia has been making new attempts to strike Ukraine’s power grid and energy infrastructure, “trying to leave Ukraine in the dark and cold,” he said.
NOTE - This assessment is supported by the absence of these missiles from recent strikes against Ukraine.

Russian Personnel Issues –-

Preliminary information came out that Russian Major General Vladimir Vasilyevich Zavadsky, (former) Commander of the Taman Division and deputy of the 14th Army Corps has been killed, reportedly blown up by a mine.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 30 -40 degree range with rain and/or snow across the forecast period.
Winter Storm Bettina aftereffects and recovery underway in southern Ukraine, Crimea and Russia.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Moderately busy, Ukrainian air defense shot down 21 of 21 Shahed drones and 2 of 3 Kh-59 missiles overnight. Otherwise, generally minor actions along all fronts.

Crimean front —
Recent storms over the Black Sea heavily damaged Russian defenses at the entrance to Sevastopol harbor in Crimea.

Outlook —-
Weather and mud conditions are dictating operations.

Damage to Russian fortifications and infrastructure in Crimea and eastern Black Sea coast is extensive. I expect the Ukraine may take advantage of the situation to strike before Russia has the chance to restore/repair them.

Europe / NATO General –

Anger over the tsunami of migrants continues to keep much of Europe on edge, with more protests ongoing as well as in the works. Absent aggressive govt actions to get serious about blocking the entry of more and aggressive deportation of those there - the tide is that the people will start taking things into their own hands.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- IDF says the 12 released hostages from Tuesday’s exchange are in Israeli territory.

- Israel confirmed that it received the list of 10 hostages that are expected to be freed on Wednesday

- Hamas is asking for a four-day extension of the ceasefire agreement

- Israel & Hamas both reported at least one violation of the temporary truce agreement in the Gaza Strip on November 28, but neither side escalated the situation to more general fighting across the strip.

GENERAL ——————————-

RUMINT - Hamas is reportedly offering all the hostages in exchange for a full ceasefire. In other words, if Israel agrees to lose the war, and accept Hamas’s survival, it will give us the hostages.

Hamas is asking for a four-day extension of the ceasefire agreement it reached with Israel on Nov. 24, AFP reported on Wednesday.
“Hamas has informed the mediators that it is willing to extend the truce for four days and that the movement would be able to release Israeli prisoners that it, other resistance movements and other parties hold during this period, according to the terms of the existing truce,” a source told the news agency.

A total of 60 Israeli women and children, plus one Israeli man, had been freed as of Wednesday, along with 17 Thais and one Filipino.
Hamas kidnapped some 240 people during its Oct. 7 assault on southern Israel

GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Operation pause holds, though there were reports of a brief gun battle overnight.

LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Relatively quiet

SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Relatively quiet

WEST BANK——————————-

Israeli forces have reportedly completely surrounded the Jenin camp and have entered it, with resulting clashes with Palestinian militants

“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

More maritime alerts of suspicious vessels south of Yemen, very possibly Houthi terrorists testing the waters for another attempt as seizing a ship.

FORECAST ————————-

Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - The hostages for criminals exchange may well be reaching a end. The minor violations yesterday by both sides as well as growing reluctance by Hamas to release hostages past women and children - to captured men and especially any captured military individuals - is growing increasingly unlikely.

Turkey –

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan on Tuesday told the United Nations (UN) Secretary General Antonio Guterres that Israel must be held accountable in international courts for what he called war crimes it committed in Gaza, the Turkish president said.

OBSERVATION - Any future rewarming of the relations between Israel and Turkey will only occur when radical islamist leaning Erdogan leaves office and Turkey returns to being a more moderate arab state.

Globalism / Great Reset –

COP28 in progress, expect a bunch of high faloouting dictates to the peasants in the coming days and weeks.

Economy –

Major banks have been closing thousands of branches across the country in a cast saving moves. Some analysts consider this to be a precursor of growing potential bank failures.

***
Shrugging off higher interest rates, America’s consumers spent enough to help drive the economy to a brisk 5.2% annual pace from July through September, the government reported Wednesday in an upgrade from its previous estimate.
The government had previously estimated that the economy grew at a 4.9% annual rate last quarter.

Wednesday’s second estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the July-September quarter confirmed that the economy sharply accelerated from its 2.1% rate from April through June. It showed that the U.S. gross domestic product — the total output of goods and services — grew at its fastest quarterly rate in nearly two years.

Consumer spending, the lifeblood of the economy, rose at a 3.6% annual rate from July through September — still healthy but a downgrade from the previous estimate of 4%. The economy also received a lift from companies building inventories in anticipation of future sales. Also driving the third quarter growth was an uptick in spending and investment by governments at all levels, federal, state and local.

https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/gdp-economic-group-third-quarter/2023/11/29/id/1144026/

OBSERVATION - I view these numbers with some suspicion. Here the regime indicates that much of the economy has been driven by consumer spending - a view that other economic measures indicate has been steadily contracting. The US govt has continued to spend like a drunken sailor and this causes some analysts to point the source of GDP numbers to it. The same note inflation levels being driven by continued high govt spending as well. This wouldn’t be the first time the govt has cooked the numbers.

One key contra indicator to this GDP is the U.S. housing market, a historical indicator of economic health, is in a deadfall.

***
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its 10 Russian-led allies – known as OPEC+ – have reached a preliminary agreement for a one million barrel per day oil production cut according to two OPEC+ sources. They are targeting to maintain a price of $88/barrel for Brent crude. The drop in global oil consumption is linked in part to China’s deepening economic woes as well as sectors of the global economy slumping towards a recession.

OBSERVATION - Gas prices here in my corner of the Redoubt have come down by a lot over the past month. As I’ve said, post-sanctions Iran oil will be hitting the market soon, driving additional over supply to the market. Though some market analysts suggest that the decrease in production will cause prices to rise, with the other factors I don’t expect much to change in the short term. This is something like the second or third production decrease in the past few months.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

Pro Hamas rioters turned out in force last night in an effort to stop or disrupt the annual lighting of the Christmas tree in Rockefeller Plaza. The rioters fought with NYPD in an attempt to break through barriers to get to the site.

OBSERVATION - It seems the marxist left has finally found a cause that brings protestors back to the streets - progressive hatred for Israel. The hybrid (intersectional) mash-mash of climate change, LGBT, Transtifa, Antifa and Pro-Hamas supporters are merging onto a common enemy - Israel and any supporters there of. The largest component are the pro-Hamas islamic supporters who are flexing their muscles now by attacking Christianity and Judaism during this holiday season. Islam is completely intolerant of other religions once the moslem population reaches a critical level. Now boistered with these (I’ll say temporary allies) other groups, they are making their move to superimpose islamic standards on the US culture.

This has any ramifications, one being the major rift in the democrat party between the traditional Israel supporting moderates and the marxist progressives. Throw in the decades of brain washing in our colleges and universities for anti-Israel (and similar decolonization / CRT) thought, and we are sure to see more of this.

As we move into the 2024 campaign season in full force, this islamic movement with its straphangers will be expected to try to intimidate voters into sympathizing with their ‘cause’ or face violence. This violence will not be restricted to vandalism and burning buildings. I fully expect that they will physically go after perceived opponents, or ‘supporters’ not ideologically pure enough, and injure/kill. Our major city police forces are grossly understaffed and funded and face getting knifed in the back by the municipal leadership that has been so supportive of the defund the police / BLM movement of 2020. The potential for anarchy and lawlessness if far greater in the coming months than 2020 - and that is saying a lot!.

Also, I fully expect that based on what they would define as a ‘successful’ protest, there will be many more such protests at Christmas and Hanukkah events over the next month. Fully expect vandalism of public Christmas trees, Nativity scenes and Hanukkah lamps.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The US Army deployed some of the leadership for the 1st Security Force Assistance Brigade (SFAB) to Guyana over the weekend.
The SFAB team met with GDF leadership in order to plan out enhanced military cooperation together.

OBSERVATION - Military advisors. Not sure how big an military force Guyana has, but I’m sure its smaller and less well equipped than Venezula.

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics – HEIGHTENED ALERT STATUS

Monitoring the rise of pneumonia cases in China and apparent spread to other countries.

While some may just poo-poo this as a scare, I’m not letting that interfere with my preparations for a potential global pan(scam)demic.

Biden / Harris Watch –
While addressing workers in Colorado biden quipped-

“Hey Nick! Hello, Marley. Now look, my Marine carries, uh, has a code to blow up the world. That doesn’t - it’s not, uh, nuclear weapons, is it?

OBSERVATION - I continue to be surprised that biden has lasted this long in the WH.

Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT

Other reports of hacking attacks on other water supply and sanitation / sewage systems.

Illegal Immigration –

DHS Mayorkis calling for congress to grant amnesty for the now nearly 30 million illegals residing in the US.

Another article of impeachment is set to go before the House again

China –

Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen said that China is too “overwhelmed” with economic problems to launch an invasion of Taiwan.

OBSERVATION - That could all change with the election of a pro-independence govt this coming January. But I think Tsai is looking at the wrong scenario. China has twice exercised what many analysts consider to be a blockade scenario, and not an invasion scenario. China now with three aircraft carriers and its other surface combatants may well have enough assets to conduct such a blockade. An given how the US govt is in disarray with a mind addled biden and two major conflicts we are supporting, our military assets necessary to break such a blockade are looking pretty thin.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Nov 12, 2023

The Russian army has lost a considerable amount of armor/tanks and personnel in the fight to take Adviivka, causing that offensive to stall considerably and resort to “meat” attacks.

With the arrival of the muddy season, significant offensive actions by Russia are unlikely.

Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.

*****
During his speech at the OSCE meeting, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov asked to ‘leave him alone”. In turn, a number of ministers during his speech decided to leave the hall so they didn’t have to listen to Lavrov any further.

He accused NATO and the European Union states of allegedly ‘destroying the military-political dimension of the OSCE with their own hands’.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 30 -40 degree range with rain and/or snow across the forecast period.
Winter Storm Bettina aftereffects and recovery underway in southern Ukraine, Crimea and Russia.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight, Russia attacked Ukraine with a total of 20 Shahed drones of which 14 were shot down. Additionally they launched 8 S-300 missiles of which the impact is being determined. Explosions were heard in the Odesa and Kherson regions - combination of shoot downs and possible impacts by the S300s.

Reports of another attempted Russian armored assault on Adviivka during the past few days. The assault was turned back with the reported loss of about a dozen Russian tanks and numerous armored vehicles and hundreds of men.

Crimean front —

Overnight, Ukraine reportedly attacked Saki air base in occupied Crimea, specifically the 43rd Aviation Regiment. Preliminary reports suggest over 30 Russian servicemen were killed. No reports on aircraft damage.

Russian Territory –

The Ukrainian SBU blew up a part of the railway track between Russia and China. The explosion happened last night on the Baikal-Amur highway, near in the Severomuysky Tunnel located in Buryatia. It is the main railway connection between Russia and China.

Reports that a warehouse in Bryansk, Russia, storing Shahed drones (Russian name: Geran-2) has been hit. Locals report that at 18:12 local time explosions rocked the city.

Outlook —-

Weather and mud conditions are dictating operations. The most significant actions will likely be in the ‘deep’ game of drones and missiles. Big drivers of these attacks will be excusable and timely intelligence. Ukraine has the edge in that field with partisans operating in the occupied territories and western intelligence feeds. Russia is harder pressed to get HUMINT in Ukraine and its own strategic intel collection platforms are not getting the job done.

This has become a war of drones, on a tactical thru strategic level the likes of which the world hasn’t seen before. It will be a while before this technology is pretty much countered and new tactics and equipment take over.

Europe / NATO General –

London council cancels Hanukkah Menorah event over community tension concerns (i.e. they want to appease hamas supporters)

Tensions continue in Ireland where even the phrase “Irish Lives Matter” is now considered to be hate speech.

Protests continue in Spain over plans to provide amnesty to a breakaway region that will tip the parliamentary power to the socialists.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Hamas at last minute submits list of additional hostages to be freed. Pause extended for one day.

GENERAL ——————————-

Israel & Hamas agreed to extend Gaza ceasefire for another day. This included a new list includes 8 women & children, not 10 like in previous days, the 2 Israeli Russians who were unilaterally released on Wednesday by Hamas as a gesture to [Putin] will be counted as part of Thursday’s release.”

Estimates in Israel indicate that this will be the last day of the truce in Gaza. Hamas has pretty much played the hostage game as far as it can and now must face the music again.

Israel has arrested or killed more terrorists in the West Bank than they have released for the exchange of hostages.

GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Operation pause holds, though there were reports of a brief gun battles overnight.

LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Israeli air defenses successfully intercepted an aerial target that crossed from Lebanon into Israeli territory and activated sirens in northern Israel.

SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Relatively quiet

WEST BANK——————————-

3 Israelis waiting at a bus stop killed by 2 shooters
4 in critical condition
The terrorists were swiftly killed by 2 armed off-duty Israeli soldiers & 1 armed civilian driving past.
The Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades claims responsibility for Jerusalem attack and named attackers as the brothers Murad and Ibrahim al-Nimr.

***
Car ramming attack in Jordan Valley area, 2 soldiers in reserves were lightly injured in the ramming attack at a checkpoint

“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

US base in Syria was targeted by rocket fire this morning, per US defense official. Attempted rocket attack on Mission Support Site Euphrates led to no damage nor injuries. Too soon to say whether this was a one-off or if it signals a renewal of militia attacks

Reports of a rocket attack earlier by IRGC backed militias on the Mission Support Site at Conico where coalition forces are based . No reports of casualties

***
U.S. Navy destroyer USS Carney downed an Iranian-made KAS-04 drone over the southern Red Sea after the drone, which was launched from Yemen, was deemed a threat, according to Reuters.

INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

U.N. teacher in Gaza locked up an Israeli hostage in an attic for nearly 50 days. The hostage was barely provided with food and denied medication. Teacher works for UNRWA, reports journalist Boker Almog. This has triggered a defunding of UNRWA from many nations.

The Swiss government will be terminating its support for three Palestinian-affiliated NGOs - the Palestinian Center for Human Rights (PCHR), Palestinian NGO Network (PNGO), and Al-Shabaka, according to a statement released by the Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs last week.

The FDFA’s decision comes on the heels of its suspension of the delivery of funds to eleven Palestinian NGOs in October following Hamas’s brutal attacks of October 7 that left 1,200 people dead. That move was made pending “an in-depth analysis of the compliance of these organizations’ communications with the FDFA’s Code of Conduct and anti-discrimination clause, to which external partners are subject.”

Germany announced it would be freezing funding to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), a body specifically dedicated to Palestinian refugees, amid reports it has distributed antisemitic material, incited violence, and had alumni who participated in the October 7 atrocities in Israel.
“UNRWA is not making a contribution to a peaceful solution,” Max Lucks of the Green Party said. “Not a single cent from Germany should reach teachers who glorify the terror of Hamas.”

***
Saudi Foreign Minister: We call for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza

Jordanian Foreign Minister: We call for recognition of the Palestinian state. The Israeli occupation of the Palestinian territories is the cause of the conflict.
NOTE - Jordan was designated in 1947 to be the Palestinian state. Arabs captured that area and took control when they attacked Israel after it was created.

Egyptian Foreign Minister: We must join forces to implement the internationally agreed upon solution, which is the two-state solution

Prime Minister of Qatar: We call for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip

***
Germany’s Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) on Wednesday said the danger of an Islamist terror attack on German soil had significantly increased - risk of attacks against the Jewish community or “the West as a whole”

FORECAST ————————-

Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - The hostages for criminals exchange may well be reaching a end. Shooting expected to begin by tomorrow’s posting.

The horror stories are starting to reach the media from the released hostages. The biggest ones are the UNRWA teacher holding a hostage, a Gazan doctor holding hostages, lack of medical treatment and physical abuse. I think the media is reporting more on this because of how they were humiliated defending hamas over the bunkers found beneath hospitals, schools, residential areas and mosques across N Gaza.

Of course, arab nations are calling for a further ceasefire beyond the operational ‘pause’ of the past week. Netanyahu reiterated that Israel’s goal is still to destroy Hamas and will not stop until that goal is achieved.

Review of the remaining hostages consists primarily of military related individuals, combat aged men and some remaining elderly and infants/children. For most of this group Hamas has completely ruled out any exchanges.

One thing to see when the fighting resumes is just how rearmed and reorganized Hamas was able to accomplish. Or did they try to exfiltrate as many as possible southward into Gaza, leaving a rear guard / delaying force in the north. The ones that remain in the north will likely be those jihadists with a martyrdom death wish, especially those smaller islamic elements affiliated with Hamas like PIJ.

I am not counting on Hezbollah getting deeper involved in the fighting apart from the low level of engagements already seen. The fight in N Gaza is only a matter of time before Hamas is eliminated, so there wouldn’t be much to gain in attacking Israel at the moments. That view could change as Israel pursues Hamas into S Gaza.

The ‘resistance’ forces in eastern Syria/western iraq will continue their hit and run attacks. This was building up even before the Gaza war kicked off as a joint plan supported by Syria to rid the region of US/collation forces.

Houthi sea piracy is expected to continue, but at greater risk to their elements as anti-piracy forces that have been in the region for a while are now fully alerted to the increased efforts and ready to respond quicker.

Venezuela - Increasing

Venezuelans hold as self-evident truth that their homeland’s eastern end includes Guyana’s Essequibo region next to the Atlantic — a territory larger than Greece and rich in oil and minerals. An Exxon oil survey in 2015 which found significant oil in the territory. Caracas is gearing up for a referendum scheduled for December 3 and is making military preparations.

However, any attempt to seize the territory may be met with severe push back.
The Brazilian Armed Forces have reportedly been placed into a heightened state of readiness due to a significant movement of military equipment and personnel in eastern Venezuela on the border of Guyana which has recently been detected, with officials believing that Venezuela may soon Invade the small South American country in order to annex the “Guayana Esequiba” Region which accounts for over 60% of the nation’s territory and has been claimed by the Venezuelan government.

A Venezuelan referendum is scheduled for Dec 3d, the results could nominally decide if they will attempt to seize the territory.

OBSERVATION - There is speculation that the renewed quest to seize the territory is in part supported by recent warm relations with Russia. Brazil’s part in any invasion is not fully clear to me, ranging from a defensive alliance with Guyana to seizing the southern portions of the territory adjacent to it. Who has Venezuela starts war on their bingo card for December?