Globalism / Great Reset –
COP28 in progress, expect a bunch of high faloouting dictates to the peasants in the coming days and weeks.
Economy –
Major banks have been closing thousands of branches across the country in a cast saving moves. Some analysts consider this to be a precursor of growing potential bank failures.
***
Shrugging off higher interest rates, America’s consumers spent enough to help drive the economy to a brisk 5.2% annual pace from July through September, the government reported Wednesday in an upgrade from its previous estimate.
The government had previously estimated that the economy grew at a 4.9% annual rate last quarter.
Wednesday’s second estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the July-September quarter confirmed that the economy sharply accelerated from its 2.1% rate from April through June. It showed that the U.S. gross domestic product — the total output of goods and services — grew at its fastest quarterly rate in nearly two years.
Consumer spending, the lifeblood of the economy, rose at a 3.6% annual rate from July through September — still healthy but a downgrade from the previous estimate of 4%. The economy also received a lift from companies building inventories in anticipation of future sales. Also driving the third quarter growth was an uptick in spending and investment by governments at all levels, federal, state and local.
https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/gdp-economic-group-third-quarter/2023/11/29/id/1144026/
OBSERVATION - I view these numbers with some suspicion. Here the regime indicates that much of the economy has been driven by consumer spending - a view that other economic measures indicate has been steadily contracting. The US govt has continued to spend like a drunken sailor and this causes some analysts to point the source of GDP numbers to it. The same note inflation levels being driven by continued high govt spending as well. This wouldn’t be the first time the govt has cooked the numbers.
One key contra indicator to this GDP is the U.S. housing market, a historical indicator of economic health, is in a deadfall.
***
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its 10 Russian-led allies – known as OPEC+ – have reached a preliminary agreement for a one million barrel per day oil production cut according to two OPEC+ sources. They are targeting to maintain a price of $88/barrel for Brent crude. The drop in global oil consumption is linked in part to China’s deepening economic woes as well as sectors of the global economy slumping towards a recession.
OBSERVATION - Gas prices here in my corner of the Redoubt have come down by a lot over the past month. As I’ve said, post-sanctions Iran oil will be hitting the market soon, driving additional over supply to the market. Though some market analysts suggest that the decrease in production will cause prices to rise, with the other factors I don’t expect much to change in the short term. This is something like the second or third production decrease in the past few months.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Pro Hamas rioters turned out in force last night in an effort to stop or disrupt the annual lighting of the Christmas tree in Rockefeller Plaza. The rioters fought with NYPD in an attempt to break through barriers to get to the site.
OBSERVATION - It seems the marxist left has finally found a cause that brings protestors back to the streets - progressive hatred for Israel. The hybrid (intersectional) mash-mash of climate change, LGBT, Transtifa, Antifa and Pro-Hamas supporters are merging onto a common enemy - Israel and any supporters there of. The largest component are the pro-Hamas islamic supporters who are flexing their muscles now by attacking Christianity and Judaism during this holiday season. Islam is completely intolerant of other religions once the moslem population reaches a critical level. Now boistered with these (I’ll say temporary allies) other groups, they are making their move to superimpose islamic standards on the US culture.
This has any ramifications, one being the major rift in the democrat party between the traditional Israel supporting moderates and the marxist progressives. Throw in the decades of brain washing in our colleges and universities for anti-Israel (and similar decolonization / CRT) thought, and we are sure to see more of this.
As we move into the 2024 campaign season in full force, this islamic movement with its straphangers will be expected to try to intimidate voters into sympathizing with their ‘cause’ or face violence. This violence will not be restricted to vandalism and burning buildings. I fully expect that they will physically go after perceived opponents, or ‘supporters’ not ideologically pure enough, and injure/kill. Our major city police forces are grossly understaffed and funded and face getting knifed in the back by the municipal leadership that has been so supportive of the defund the police / BLM movement of 2020. The potential for anarchy and lawlessness if far greater in the coming months than 2020 - and that is saying a lot!.
Also, I fully expect that based on what they would define as a ‘successful’ protest, there will be many more such protests at Christmas and Hanukkah events over the next month. Fully expect vandalism of public Christmas trees, Nativity scenes and Hanukkah lamps.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The US Army deployed some of the leadership for the 1st Security Force Assistance Brigade (SFAB) to Guyana over the weekend.
The SFAB team met with GDF leadership in order to plan out enhanced military cooperation together.
OBSERVATION - Military advisors. Not sure how big an military force Guyana has, but I’m sure its smaller and less well equipped than Venezula.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics – HEIGHTENED ALERT STATUS
Monitoring the rise of pneumonia cases in China and apparent spread to other countries.
While some may just poo-poo this as a scare, I’m not letting that interfere with my preparations for a potential global pan(scam)demic.
Biden / Harris Watch –
While addressing workers in Colorado biden quipped-
“Hey Nick! Hello, Marley. Now look, my Marine carries, uh, has a code to blow up the world. That doesn’t - it’s not, uh, nuclear weapons, is it?
OBSERVATION - I continue to be surprised that biden has lasted this long in the WH.
Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT
Other reports of hacking attacks on other water supply and sanitation / sewage systems.
Illegal Immigration –
DHS Mayorkis calling for congress to grant amnesty for the now nearly 30 million illegals residing in the US.
Another article of impeachment is set to go before the House again
China –
Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen said that China is too “overwhelmed” with economic problems to launch an invasion of Taiwan.
OBSERVATION - That could all change with the election of a pro-independence govt this coming January. But I think Tsai is looking at the wrong scenario. China has twice exercised what many analysts consider to be a blockade scenario, and not an invasion scenario. China now with three aircraft carriers and its other surface combatants may well have enough assets to conduct such a blockade. An given how the US govt is in disarray with a mind addled biden and two major conflicts we are supporting, our military assets necessary to break such a blockade are looking pretty thin.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Nov 12, 2023
Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Attacks to take Adviivka, located near occupied Donetsk has been their priority as well as further north. However, it is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine.
The Russian army has lost a considerable amount of armor/tanks and personnel in the fight to take Adviivka, causing that offensive to stall considerably and resort to “meat” attacks.
With the arrival of the muddy season, significant offensive actions by Russia are unlikely.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. With the onset of winter, it is believed that Russian is shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for an effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as it did last year. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s recent attacks on ships in Crimean harbors has forced the majority of the fleet to redeploying out of Crimea and to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
*****
During his speech at the OSCE meeting, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov asked to ‘leave him alone”. In turn, a number of ministers during his speech decided to leave the hall so they didn’t have to listen to Lavrov any further.
He accused NATO and the European Union states of allegedly ‘destroying the military-political dimension of the OSCE with their own hands’.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 30 -40 degree range with rain and/or snow across the forecast period.
Winter Storm Bettina aftereffects and recovery underway in southern Ukraine, Crimea and Russia.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight, Russia attacked Ukraine with a total of 20 Shahed drones of which 14 were shot down. Additionally they launched 8 S-300 missiles of which the impact is being determined. Explosions were heard in the Odesa and Kherson regions - combination of shoot downs and possible impacts by the S300s.
Reports of another attempted Russian armored assault on Adviivka during the past few days. The assault was turned back with the reported loss of about a dozen Russian tanks and numerous armored vehicles and hundreds of men.
Crimean front —
Overnight, Ukraine reportedly attacked Saki air base in occupied Crimea, specifically the 43rd Aviation Regiment. Preliminary reports suggest over 30 Russian servicemen were killed. No reports on aircraft damage.
Russian Territory –
The Ukrainian SBU blew up a part of the railway track between Russia and China. The explosion happened last night on the Baikal-Amur highway, near in the Severomuysky Tunnel located in Buryatia. It is the main railway connection between Russia and China.
Reports that a warehouse in Bryansk, Russia, storing Shahed drones (Russian name: Geran-2) has been hit. Locals report that at 18:12 local time explosions rocked the city.
Outlook —-
Weather and mud conditions are dictating operations. The most significant actions will likely be in the ‘deep’ game of drones and missiles. Big drivers of these attacks will be excusable and timely intelligence. Ukraine has the edge in that field with partisans operating in the occupied territories and western intelligence feeds. Russia is harder pressed to get HUMINT in Ukraine and its own strategic intel collection platforms are not getting the job done.
This has become a war of drones, on a tactical thru strategic level the likes of which the world hasn’t seen before. It will be a while before this technology is pretty much countered and new tactics and equipment take over.
Europe / NATO General –
London council cancels Hanukkah Menorah event over community tension concerns (i.e. they want to appease hamas supporters)
Tensions continue in Ireland where even the phrase “Irish Lives Matter” is now considered to be hate speech.
Protests continue in Spain over plans to provide amnesty to a breakaway region that will tip the parliamentary power to the socialists.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas at last minute submits list of additional hostages to be freed. Pause extended for one day.
GENERAL ——————————-
Israel & Hamas agreed to extend Gaza ceasefire for another day. This included a new list includes 8 women & children, not 10 like in previous days, the 2 Israeli Russians who were unilaterally released on Wednesday by Hamas as a gesture to [Putin] will be counted as part of Thursday’s release.”
Estimates in Israel indicate that this will be the last day of the truce in Gaza. Hamas has pretty much played the hostage game as far as it can and now must face the music again.
Israel has arrested or killed more terrorists in the West Bank than they have released for the exchange of hostages.
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Operation pause holds, though there were reports of a brief gun battles overnight.
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israeli air defenses successfully intercepted an aerial target that crossed from Lebanon into Israeli territory and activated sirens in northern Israel.
SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Relatively quiet
WEST BANK——————————-
3 Israelis waiting at a bus stop killed by 2 shooters
4 in critical condition
The terrorists were swiftly killed by 2 armed off-duty Israeli soldiers & 1 armed civilian driving past.
The Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades claims responsibility for Jerusalem attack and named attackers as the brothers Murad and Ibrahim al-Nimr.
***
Car ramming attack in Jordan Valley area, 2 soldiers in reserves were lightly injured in the ramming attack at a checkpoint
“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
US base in Syria was targeted by rocket fire this morning, per US defense official. Attempted rocket attack on Mission Support Site Euphrates led to no damage nor injuries. Too soon to say whether this was a one-off or if it signals a renewal of militia attacks
Reports of a rocket attack earlier by IRGC backed militias on the Mission Support Site at Conico where coalition forces are based . No reports of casualties
***
U.S. Navy destroyer USS Carney downed an Iranian-made KAS-04 drone over the southern Red Sea after the drone, which was launched from Yemen, was deemed a threat, according to Reuters.
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
U.N. teacher in Gaza locked up an Israeli hostage in an attic for nearly 50 days. The hostage was barely provided with food and denied medication. Teacher works for UNRWA, reports journalist Boker Almog. This has triggered a defunding of UNRWA from many nations.
The Swiss government will be terminating its support for three Palestinian-affiliated NGOs - the Palestinian Center for Human Rights (PCHR), Palestinian NGO Network (PNGO), and Al-Shabaka, according to a statement released by the Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs last week.
The FDFA’s decision comes on the heels of its suspension of the delivery of funds to eleven Palestinian NGOs in October following Hamas’s brutal attacks of October 7 that left 1,200 people dead. That move was made pending “an in-depth analysis of the compliance of these organizations’ communications with the FDFA’s Code of Conduct and anti-discrimination clause, to which external partners are subject.”
Germany announced it would be freezing funding to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), a body specifically dedicated to Palestinian refugees, amid reports it has distributed antisemitic material, incited violence, and had alumni who participated in the October 7 atrocities in Israel.
“UNRWA is not making a contribution to a peaceful solution,” Max Lucks of the Green Party said. “Not a single cent from Germany should reach teachers who glorify the terror of Hamas.”
***
Saudi Foreign Minister: We call for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza
Jordanian Foreign Minister: We call for recognition of the Palestinian state. The Israeli occupation of the Palestinian territories is the cause of the conflict.
NOTE - Jordan was designated in 1947 to be the Palestinian state. Arabs captured that area and took control when they attacked Israel after it was created.
Egyptian Foreign Minister: We must join forces to implement the internationally agreed upon solution, which is the two-state solution
Prime Minister of Qatar: We call for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip
***
Germany’s Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) on Wednesday said the danger of an Islamist terror attack on German soil had significantly increased - risk of attacks against the Jewish community or “the West as a whole”
FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - The hostages for criminals exchange may well be reaching a end. Shooting expected to begin by tomorrow’s posting.
The horror stories are starting to reach the media from the released hostages. The biggest ones are the UNRWA teacher holding a hostage, a Gazan doctor holding hostages, lack of medical treatment and physical abuse. I think the media is reporting more on this because of how they were humiliated defending hamas over the bunkers found beneath hospitals, schools, residential areas and mosques across N Gaza.
Of course, arab nations are calling for a further ceasefire beyond the operational ‘pause’ of the past week. Netanyahu reiterated that Israel’s goal is still to destroy Hamas and will not stop until that goal is achieved.
Review of the remaining hostages consists primarily of military related individuals, combat aged men and some remaining elderly and infants/children. For most of this group Hamas has completely ruled out any exchanges.
One thing to see when the fighting resumes is just how rearmed and reorganized Hamas was able to accomplish. Or did they try to exfiltrate as many as possible southward into Gaza, leaving a rear guard / delaying force in the north. The ones that remain in the north will likely be those jihadists with a martyrdom death wish, especially those smaller islamic elements affiliated with Hamas like PIJ.
I am not counting on Hezbollah getting deeper involved in the fighting apart from the low level of engagements already seen. The fight in N Gaza is only a matter of time before Hamas is eliminated, so there wouldn’t be much to gain in attacking Israel at the moments. That view could change as Israel pursues Hamas into S Gaza.
The ‘resistance’ forces in eastern Syria/western iraq will continue their hit and run attacks. This was building up even before the Gaza war kicked off as a joint plan supported by Syria to rid the region of US/collation forces.
Houthi sea piracy is expected to continue, but at greater risk to their elements as anti-piracy forces that have been in the region for a while are now fully alerted to the increased efforts and ready to respond quicker.
Venezuela - Increasing
Venezuelans hold as self-evident truth that their homeland’s eastern end includes Guyana’s Essequibo region next to the Atlantic — a territory larger than Greece and rich in oil and minerals. An Exxon oil survey in 2015 which found significant oil in the territory. Caracas is gearing up for a referendum scheduled for December 3 and is making military preparations.
However, any attempt to seize the territory may be met with severe push back.
The Brazilian Armed Forces have reportedly been placed into a heightened state of readiness due to a significant movement of military equipment and personnel in eastern Venezuela on the border of Guyana which has recently been detected, with officials believing that Venezuela may soon Invade the small South American country in order to annex the “Guayana Esequiba” Region which accounts for over 60% of the nation’s territory and has been claimed by the Venezuelan government.
A Venezuelan referendum is scheduled for Dec 3d, the results could nominally decide if they will attempt to seize the territory.
OBSERVATION - There is speculation that the renewed quest to seize the territory is in part supported by recent warm relations with Russia. Brazil’s part in any invasion is not fully clear to me, ranging from a defensive alliance with Guyana to seizing the southern portions of the territory adjacent to it. Who has Venezuela starts war on their bingo card for December?
What? What? If they would lie about economic numbers does that mean they might be lying about the border being closed too? OMG it can't be.... /s
Now entering December 2023 - Where in the *((%(( has the year gone?
Running a little late, sorry.
Globalism / Great Reset –
COP 28 snippets.
- COP28 advisory board member resigns over reports of UAE fossil fuel dealmaking
- COP28 is officially the largest-ever UN climate summit, with 80,000 participants registered on a list that – for the first time – shows who they work for.
- Iranian delegates walked out of UN climate talks in the United Arab Emirates on Friday in protest over the presence of Israeli representatives, state media reported.
- United Arab Emirates President Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed announced the establishment of a $30 billion (€27.5 billion) climate fund for global climate solutions that it hopes will lead to $250 billion in investment by the end of the decade.
- King Charles III has told COP28 climate talks in Dubai must be a “critical turning point” in the fight against climate change, with “genuine transformational action”.
“I pray with all my heart that COP28 will be another critical turning point towards genuine transformational action,” Charles told assembled leaders including Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, French President Emmanuel Macron and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
- United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told world leaders that the burning of fossil fuels must be stopped outright and a reduction or abatement in their use would not be enough to stop global warming.
“We cannot save a burning planet with a fire hose of fossil fuels,” Guterres said in a speech to the COP28 summit in Dubai. “The 1.5-degree limit is only possible if we ultimately stop burning all fossil fuels. Not reduce. Not abate.”
He urged fossil fuel companies to invest in a transition to renewable energy sources and told governments to help by forcing that change, including through the use of windfall taxes on industry profits
- India doubles down on right to increase coal power and CO2 emissions
Economy –
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon issued a stark warning to Wall Street on Wednesday: Inflation could rise further and recession is not off the table.
OBSERVATION - Still a lot of divergence by financial institutions regarding inflation and the state of the economy’s trend into a recession or not. My gut tells me that much of the prognostication are based on economic factors from the Before Years and not current economic realities and dynamics.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
A bipartisan group of senators is quietly trying to renew Section 702 of FISA for 12 more years by slipping it into a “must-pass” defense bill, the National Defense Authorization Act. It is set to expire on Dec 31.
OBSERVATION - Once again, the govt is aligning itself against citizens in order to carry out spying and other rights violations. We’ve already seen this movie. It also shows that the enemy is in congress in a greater way.
***
With the holiday season in full swing, there are many other opportunities for the pro-hamas islamic supporters to cause troubles as there are many other events on the schedule in numerous cities across the country. Watching to see how and where they shift their attention to next.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics – HEIGHTENED ALERT STATUS
“Mystery pneumonia” affecting kids and ripping through China and parts of Europe, is reportedly now in America. 142 child cases of “white lung syndrome” have now been recorded in Warren County, Ohio since August, meaning if true, it’s been here for months.
CDC officials are saying “nothing is out of the ordinary” but according to county health official “Not only is this above the county average, it also meets the Ohio Department of Health definition of an outbreak.”
OBSERVATION - It is being associated now with the term “White Lung “.
RELATED
Denmark is currently being hit by a surge in the same type of pneumonia that has rocked China and sparked fears of a fresh pandemic. Danish health chiefs say rates of mycoplasma pneumoniae, a bacterial infection for which some antibiotics are useless, has reached ‘epidemic’ levels.
Mycoplasma pneumoniae normally causes a mild flu-like illness, sometimes called ‘walking pneumonia’. Cases are most common in younger children.
POLITICAL FRONT –
House panel chairman says J6 videotapes of witness interviews missing. He also said he saw no need to preserve them -although House rules and law mandated they be kept and maintained.
OBSERVATION - Now the cover up of the cover up begins. Totally unfounded to misplace or destroy official congressional documents of an investigation. The powers that be don’t want us to see this material.
***
Newscum and DeSantis met in a debate moderated by Sean Hannity. I didn’t watch but news commentators indicated that newscum got backed into the corner so many times because of the facts that even his used car salesman smile couldn’t get him out.
FWIW, this could be a try out to replace biden with the faux golden kalifornian golden kid. If so, it didn’t go well and the democrat powers that be may be forced to seek out a better alternative candidate.
DeSantis did OK, but he should have given newscum’s record.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Harris is off COP28 to waste US money.
Illegal Immigration –
According to Fox News reporter Bill Melugin, there were over 9,400 encounters with illegal aliens at the US southern border in the last 24 hours. Of those, over 5,800 were released into the United States, according to CBP sources who spoke to Bill Melugin
OBSERVATION - One of the largest daily totals yet!
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Nov 12, 2023
Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Attacks to take Adviivka, located near occupied Donetsk has been their priority as well as further north. However, it is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine.
The Russian army has lost a considerable amount of armor/tanks and personnel in the fight to take Adviivka, causing that offensive to stall considerably and resort to “meat” attacks.
With the arrival of the muddy season, significant offensive actions by Russia are unlikely.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. With the onset of winter, it is believed that Russian is shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for an effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as it did last year. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s recent attacks on ships in Crimean harbors has forced the majority of the fleet to redeploying out of Crimea and to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
*****
Another incident in Buryatia has been reported. According to the Russian TG channel “Mash” an IED was planted on the tracks.
“The explosive device detonated on the night of November 29-30, four kilometers from the village of Taksimo.
In total, the train contained 41 tank cars with fuel, 3 with aviation fuel and 6 with ferrous metal. No (human) casualties are reported.”
This is the same night where 100km away from this incident the other train in the Severomuysky Tunnel was struck. Kyiv Post said that a Ukrainian operation of the SBU is responsible for the strike and the SBU is certainly capable of this, but there could be also another explanation. The people of Buryatia are disproportionately used in Russia’s wars and suffered huge losses. I wouldn’t be surprised that this is the work of rebels. But that is speculation on my part.
Either way, Moscow has more problems in the Far East than it is willing to admit. Chelyabinsk suffered also a huge blow when the tractor factory was compromised some days ago.
OBSERVATION - Russia is a large country, with many vulnerabilities in its eastern areas. Infiltration of special ops into this area can cause all kinds of problems. Plus as noted, the people in this region are not too favorably disposed towards it rulers in Moscow.
Also note that the second train hit reportedly has occurred IN the tunnel, not near as I reported yesterday.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 30 -40 degree range with rain and/or snow across the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 18 of 25 Shahed drones and Kh-59 cruise missile
Outlook —-
Weather and mud conditions are dictating operations. Ground action currently at a minimum
Europe / NATO General –
In rural communities in Ireland are setting up roadblocks to stop migrants entering the areas. The so-called ‘vigilante patrols’ ask for passports & other identification.
OBSERVATION - Meanwhile, its parliament is becoming pro-migrant and essentially criminalizing Irish citizens for opposition.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- The ‘pause’ ended overnight after Hamas failed to uphold its end of the deal for hostages and fired rockets into Israel.
GENERAL ——————————-
Israel rebuked SoS Blinken overnight -
Israel Defense Minister Yoav Gallant with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken: “We will carry on with this war until we win it - until we defeat Hamas, dismantle all its governing capabilities, and return all the hostage - I repeat - all the hostages back to their homes. We know that in terms of the goals of the operation we are united with the U.S. and we greatly appreciate this - thank you very much Mr. Secretary of State.”
Blinken was in Israel to press for an extension of the ‘pause’ and move to a ceasefire. Blinken further pushed for Israeli acceptance of a ‘two state’ solution. He further said Israel doesn’t :”I don’t think you have the credit for that.” in reference to the continuation of the war in S Gaza.
Statement by the Prime Minister’s Office: The Hamas-ISIS terrorist organization has violated the outline. It has not met its obligation to release all of the women hostages today and has launched rockets at Israeli citizens.Upon the resumption of fighting, we emphasize: The Government of Israel is committed to achieving the goals of the war: Releasing the hostages, eliminating Hamas and ensuring that Gaza never again constitutes a threat to the residents of Israel.
An Israeli official said that during the night, talks have taken place with the Qatari and Egyptian mediators, but Hamas didn’t provide any list of hostages it is willing to release.
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Seems Israeli restart of combat is focusing on the area around Jabalia camp in the northern Gaza Strip. Israel has also bombed areas in S Gaza as well, with intense bombardment on the Rafah and Al-Qarara areas in the southern Gaza Strip
Hamas targeted Ashkelon, Sderot, and Beersheba with rocket attacks.
Israel is dropping leaflets into the southern city of Khan Younis, designating it as a ‘combat zone’ and asking people to leave to Rafah.
The Israeli army has published an interactive map splitting the Gaza Strip into hundreds of small zones, which it will use to notify Palestinian civilians of active combat zones.
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Rocket sirens sounded in the Upper Galilee indicating that Hezbollah is resuming its attacks on border communities.
Accordingly, the Israeli army raised the state of alert on the border with Lebanon. IDF fired artillery at Hezbollah positions.
WEST BANK——————————-
More police raids to arrest Hamas affiliated terrorists.
“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
An explosion occurred at a Houthi military base near the Capital City of Sana’a in western Yemen with some claiming that it was caused by a possible airstrike; so far U.S. Defense Officials have denied any sort of strike, but there has been no comment yet by Israel. Not many details since, but the explosion is rumored to have occurred at an ammunition depot on the base.
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Gaza truce talks with Qatari, Egyptian mediators ‘ongoing’, despite renewed fighting: source.
FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - Its back on again. It will be harder to convince Israel into another ‘pause’ given the games Hamas played at the very end, plus the documented abuse of hostages that were released. UN agents and hospital personnel joining the terrorists - being noted by the media in a begrudging manner - has stripped the veneer of Hamas being any kind of ‘good’ guy.
Also, since most of the women and children have been released, less heart tugs on the Israeli people. Not to be harsh or uncaring, the remaining are adults and many affiliated with the IDF. Israel may bite the lip and continue the fight knowing that these hostages are likely dead men walking anyway.
As this continues, Israel will progressively target S Gaza while finishing up cleaning up the north. North will likely take a couple more weeks. South will be more of a challenge as a substantial portion of the northern population fled south and unless Egypt or Jordan relents, they have no place to go.