Threat Matrix

Threats surround us on a daily basis. Being able to recognize them and react are essential. This is ongoing commentary of those threats

Heads up, I wont be doing a post this coming Sunday. Family fun and games will take precident (and a wonderful soak in a local hot springs).

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Globalism / Great Reset –

Word is that BlackRock and Pfizer are lobbying the Biden regime to vaccinate every US chicken against bird flu. Part of their argument is that it is going to jump to humans besides the millions of birds culled to try to get the spread under control. We saw how “successful” Pfizer’s mRNA was for wuhan .

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Wuhan virus –

Kalifornia gov newscum has come down with wuhan again, following a vacation away from the snow emergency that his the state. He is also declining to make a State of the State address, reportedly because he doesn’t play well with teleprompters.

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Economy –

Sharp losses in banking stocks led Wall Street's main indexes lower on Thursday, as turmoil at Silicon Valley Bank's parent company triggered investor fears about the stability of the financial sector. The four largest US banks -- JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup -- saw their share prices plunge between 4% and 6%, wiping $52.3 billion from their collective market capitalizations for the day

Shares of SVB Financial, which owns Silicon Valley Bank, plunged more than 60% after the company announced a sale of new shares to cover losses on the sale of government bonds.

'The Silicon Valley raise got everybody nervous about people's capital levels and what deposits are doing. A lot of institutional investors don't feel great about owning certain banks right now,' said R.J. Grant, head of trading at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods in New York.

'It just gets people freaked out because Silicon Valley, historically has been a very strong, well-run bank. If they're having issues right now, people are wondering what about other banks that are lesser quality and that don't have the reputation that Silicon Valley Bank has.'

OBSERVATION – More learned folks than I say that the SVB fallout is due to a combination of poor tech startups combined with SVB pouring much of the company's assets and deposits into US Treasuries and other government bonds. Those bonds have gone sour with the rapid rise of the Fed prime rate. But to prevent insolvency, SVB was forced to take emergency action to raise capital. The company was forced to sell those bonds as a significant loss.

Other banks apparently feeling the same pinch, the sudden loss of assets on their books as the country faces more and more the prospect for a recession in the coming months. Expect more of this as the fed continues to push the prime even higher. Some even fear a massive Lehman style bailouts in the future.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has cut its 2023 oil price forecasts. The EIA now predicts Brent crude to average $82.95 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to average 77.10 per barrel. As of this writing, Brent and WTI spot prices are $85.75 and $79.33, respectively.

OBSERVATION – these projections suggest a stable economic setting. They are countered by other projections indicating oil going north of $100/barrel. Prices will continue to be sensitive to supply and refinery disruptions. I wish I could be optimistic, but then again this is a govt agency making the predictions.

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CW2/Domestic violence –

Biden’s proposed budget for fiscal year 2024 proposes increasing funding to the FBI, Department of Justice (DOJ), and Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) to crack down on guns. The funding, which draws from a $17.8 billion “investment” in the DOJ’s federal law enforcement capacity, will be used to further regulate the firearms industry, create gun trafficking strike forces, enforce background checks and implement the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, according to the budget. The ATF alone will receive $1.9 billion, a $200 million increase from the 2023 budget.

OBSERVATION – We’ve seen these and other alphabet agencies use resources in an effort to bypass federal laws to progressively disarm Americans. This budget adds to the effort.

The FBI may have abused the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) to spy on the very congressman tasked with overseeing FISA, according to revelations at a congressional hearing Thursday.

Rep. Darin LaHood (R-IL), a member of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, said at a committee hearing that he has reason to believe that he is the unnamed congressman who, a recently declassified report from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) admitted, FBI agents wrongfully conducted a search on.

OBSERVATION – FISA abuse by the FBI continues, and no one is facing consequences. This shouldn’t be happening in a supposedly free society, but the Marxists in the swamp are converting it to the American form of the KGB and act lawlessly to keep in power. This is not going unnoticed by the right and if things get spicy, may be directly addressed.

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POLITICAL FRONT –

According to the Post Millennial, ironically, it was CNN political reporter Alayna Treene who confirmed the findings, saying that Chair of the January 6 Committee Bennie Thompson admitted that "lawmakers were never given that type of access to the footage last Congress…"

Even worse, Thomas has reportedly admitted that “I'm actually not aware of any member of the committee who had access. We had a team of employees who kind of went through the video.”

https://bonginoreport.com/top-stories/nancy-pelosis-committee-refused-to-access-footage-of-january-6th

OBSERVATION – The J6 tribunal apparently is backpedaling on the tens of thousands of hours of video being released – blaming some unnamed ‘staffers’ for editing and presenting the kangaroo court its heavily edited version of the events. The head of the swamp - from both sides of the spectrum – are continuing to explode and are throwing every accusation thinkable to deflect from the clear evidence now coming to the forefront – their report is nothing but a lie.

Biden’s budget plan, loaded with a lot of tax increases and few deficit reduction plans has not been received very favorably by congressional republicans. Many of the tax increases are repealing of Trump tax cuts that helped the middle class. The bickering over the budget is guaranteed to spill over into the debt ceiling negotiations.

AG Garland said 5 officers died on J6. This means he’s a liar - so every single thing he says in the future, assume it’s a lie.

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China –

Chinese leader Xi Jinping was awarded a third five-year term as president Friday, putting him on track to stay in power for life.

The endorsement of Xi's appointment by the ceremonial National People's Congress was a foregone conclusion for a leader who has sidelined potential rivals and filled the top ranks of the ruling Communist Party with his supporters since taking power in 2012.

The vote for Xi was 2,952 to 0 by the NPC, members of which are appointed by the ruling party.

Xi, 69, had himself named to a third five-year term as party general secretary in October, breaking with a tradition under which Chinese leaders handed over power once a decade. A two-term limit on the figurehead presidency was deleted from the Chinese constitution earlier, prompting suggestions he might stay in power for life.

OBSERVATION - this has already been a given since last year when Xi consolidated power. With this win, his move to direct the country away from the more capitalistic goals back to a party centered controlled economy are expected to move forward with little hinderance by the limping Chinese economy.

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North/South Korea –

North Korean orphanages are growing as starving parents drop off their children in the middle of the night in hopes that the kids, at least, will be able to eat, sources in the country told Radio Free Asia.

North Korea has suffered from chronic food shortages since the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s. The food situation was made worse by the coronavirus pandemic, when North Korea and China closed their border and suspended all trade.

Although rail freight has resumed, the food shortages are still worse than they were pre-pandemic.

OBSERVATION – As an intel officer during the Soviet Union era, NK was supported by the USSR as a counter balance to US threats. They kept the NK bellies full. As I’ve noted in my posts, NK is not the massive conventional military threat it once was because of near starvation of the citizenry that has spilled over into the NK military. An army of starved soldiers may fight only to stop once it hits the grocery stores of SK. This has been made worse by Kim’s diversions of resources towards nuclear deterrence. Perhaps, in his economy, it is cheaper than feeding and upgrading his conventional military.

(Reuters) - North Korean leader Kim Jong Un ordered the military to intensify drills for a "real war," state media said on Friday, after overseeing a fire assault drill that it said proved the country's capability to counter an "actual war."

This comes as the United States and South Korea were set to kick off large-scale military exercises known as the Freedom Shield drills next week. North Korea has long bristled at the allies' drills as a rehearsal for invasion.

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Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT

Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted

This offensive action is focused on several fronts – 1) the Svatove-Kreminna front, 2) Bahkmut region, 3) Donetsk region and 4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.

Russia is rapidly losing its capability to sustain offensive operations in these fronts due to the huge resource drain Bahkmut has created. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.

Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

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NUCLEAR THREATS –

"Nuclear strike has been conducted, please go to the shelter, take your calcium iodide pills" - red alert in several regions of Russia broadcasted via TV and radio in a suspected cyber attack. NOTE - such cyber attacks could trigger are real nuclear launch. For now Russia wasn’t hitting the button.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the mid 40’s – to the 50s with rain/snow over parts of the forecast period.

RUMINT –

Ukrainian military intelligence warns of possible provocation, prepared by Russia, on the border between Belarus and Ukraine

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Continued fighting at Bahkmut. Russian forces however, seem to be trying to exploit the northern envelopment of the town by pressing northwest instead along the M-03 highway that leads to Sloviansk. If successful, it could create a more dangerous pocket to Ukraine by isolating Siversk.

Russian forces appear to be working to bypass the Ukraine stronghold of Adiivka, north of Donetsk.

OUTLOOK –

Warmer temperatures have anchored the Ukrainian spring mud season. Russia will continue to press on with its assault to capture Bahkmut. This assault has Russia using some of its better trained forces – forces that are being bleed to death from the fighting.

There are indicators that Russian is beginning to simply bypass similar urban Ukrainian strong points and are pushing along major highway systems to gain as much territory as possible. This is similar to what they did a year ago and the results will likely be the same – with Ukraine attacking their logistical support and starving the units of fuel, ammo and food so that when the time comes for its offensive, those elements will quickly collapse as last spring.

However, there is a general consensus that Russia will be unable to exploit these bypasses, having expended to much to take defended positions like Bahkmut as well as mud season kicking in big time. I suspect that Ukraine is not worried about these advances and using as I’ve said before - economy of force operations – to limit the advances while allowing maximum preparation for the spring/summer offensives.

Russia seems to have frittered away much of the forces mobilized last year and is finding itself closer to being back to square one. They are using Belarus military trainers and training areas for some of its mobilized forces, but the training sessions are generally noted to be very short before troops are rotated out and sent to the front lines.

In the race where he who gets there with the mostest is generally the winner, Russia has lost its lead and appears to be fading fast.

Final note – Ukraine appears to have operational a long range (exceeds HIMARS) and accurate MLRS rocket as well as US JDAMS guided bombs. These newer weapons systems are just getting to cut their teeth and when fully exploited with cause Russian planners a great deal of headaches as the Russian rear areas will be hit harder.

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Moldova/Transnistria -

Authorities in Transnistria, breakaway region of Moldova, claim they've foiled assassination attempt against local leader. Police detained former resident of Tiraspol, claimed he was recruited and trained by SBU in Odesa. In a plot Land Rover with 8 kgs of RDX explosives and shrapnel had to be detonated in central Tiraspol. Security Service of Ukraine dismissed accusations by Transnistria authorities of an assassination plot as a provocation

Authorities in Transnistria sent a letter to UNSC asking to discuss foiled assassination plot, and asked Ukrainian Embassy to help with investigation.

OBSERVATION – Has the markings of a false flag provocation written all over it.

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Iran –

See Saudi Arabia for agreement below.

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Saudi Arabia –

Iranian government and Saudi Arabia came to agreements and China was the mediator between the countries, which decided to renew their diplomatic relations. The Saudi and Iranian foreign ministers will meet to activate the agreement, arrange the exchange of ambassadors, and discuss ways to strengthen relations.

OBSERVATION – This is relatively shocking, given the Sunni/Shia conflict that dominates the SA/Iran divide. Such an agreement IMHO must be viewed in the historic context of classical Muslim deception of an enemy. One or both parties are trying to deceive the other and a resumption of diplomatic ‘relations’ may be one way to do so.

This agreement may also complicate Israeli/SA negotiations at some degree of diplomatic and military agreement.

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Turkey -

Over a month after the February 6 earthquake the UN says parts of central and southern Turkey continue to face a humanitarian crisis. Now with national elections moving forward, things for Erdogan are not looking good. All Turkish media report the February 6 quake as the worst natural disaster in the history of modern Turkey. There are political consequences. Erdogan is facing intense criticism for his slow response to the massively destructive February.

Since the quake Erdogan’s standing in polls has dropped. Most of the opposition parties have backed a single candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu. Subsequent national polls showed that Kilicdaroglu would receive 56.8 percent of the votes compared to 43.2 percent for Erdogan.

OBSERVATION – The election could be tumultuous to say the least. Erdogan has played the middle eastern strong man and his domestic political tactics have been equally brutal. The question is how will he be able to turn the earthquake generated chaos into a victory?

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Mexico -

A secretive faction of Mexico’s notorious Gulf Cartel apologized and turned in five members who they say are responsible for the broad-daylight kidnapping that killed two Americans last week.

The cartel’s Scorpions group said it “decided to turn over those who were directly involved and responsible in the events” related to the March 3 abduction of four Americans in the border city of Matamoros, according to a letter leaked to the Associated Press by a Tamaulipas state law enforcement source.

The letter also claimed the five members “acted under their own decision-making and lack of discipline” when they attacked victims Latavia “Tay” McGee, Shaeed Woodard, Zindell Brown and Eric James Williams.

OBSERVATION – interesting development. The abductions and murder must have placed the kinpins in a very uncomfortable position. In many instances, the cartels are also the ‘law’ and acts like this reduce tourist revenue – revenue they skim off of local businesses as protection (a la mobsters). Loss of this revenue impacts their finances and degrades the cartel in the people’s eyes.

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Black Swans

After a year and half of non-stop La Niña, the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere system has transitioned to neutral, allowing NOAA to issue its “Final La Niña Advisory”. Forecasters are noting that by late summer/early fall El Nino conditions will dominate. Just what the impacts will be are uncertain because the forecasters are still trying to unpack the dumpster fire of the rare multi-year La Nina event.

OBSERVATION - Changing weather - changing agriculture forecasts and other impacts. Need to pay attention to it.

Economy –

Before I delve into the chaos that has hit the banking world, I want to remind you of what an AI bot predicted weeks ago –

THE ECONOMY WILL CRASH ON MARCH 15th.

Keep this in mind as trends and raw data crunching are what these ‘bots were designed for.

To be fair, the ChatGPT’s rogue, jailbroken alter ego, DAN, made the prediction. This prediction comes just days after its last market projection: a Feb. 15 stock crash.

According to the chatbot, inflation, declining consumer spending and international tensions are behind its March 15 crash prediction.

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Financial regulators have closed Silicon Valley Bank and taken control of its deposits, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. announced Friday, in what is the largest U.S. bank failure since the global financial crisis more than a decade ago. Some say the second largest bank failure ever.

FDIC law insured accounts up to $250k, however most of the accounts at SVB exceeded that amount – meaning owners don’t get to see their money until after all the liquidation of assets is completed.

Tech start up companies are in panic mode. SVB was a big player in getting loans to these companies and these companies held their accounts with it. Now they are facing near total losses and the inability to pay employees from those accounts. This may result in the death of a lot of startups before the FDIC can get the books straightened out.

As noted by many, SVB had a lot of it assets tied up in Treasury bonds. The worth of those bonds has cratered as the fed increased its prime rates.

Adding to the mix, the potential that bank insiders saw the impending collapse. The SVB CEO, CFO and CMO sold +$4.4MM in stock over the last 2 weeks. CEO alone sold $3.57 million of stock within the last two weeks.

RELATED - Several regional bank stocks were halted Friday as ripples fanned outward from the SVB crash. These were –
- First Republic Bank,
- PacWest Bancorp,
- Western Alliance Bancorp and
- Signature Bank were all halted for volatility after sharp declines in early trading.

First Republic had fallen by as much as 50%. PacWest and Western Alliance had slid more than 30%. Signature was down by about 25%.

Other banks potentially facing trouble include –
- EBH Customers Bancorp,
- Sandy Spring,
- New York Community,
- First Foundation,
- Ally,
- Dime Community,
- Pacific Premier,
- Prosperity,
- Columbia Financial

Panic from the SVB also spread to china, where SVB has played a hugely important role in the country. Chinese startups can’t raise money from overseas investors in foreign currencies without offshore bank account. Opening an SVB account has been the easiest option. Now those startups are out their money as well.

OBSERVATION – This is a serious potential mess. A whole lot of folks are out of their money and many may soon be out of a job. Calls from the political class are already calling for a bail out which would be in the range of 2 billion dollars or more just for SVB alone. If these and other banks crash and burn as well, that bailout number will likely go higher.

Analysts over and over besides noting the high loan load, point to the devaluation of Treasury bonds and the loss of revenue due to the rise of the prime rate – resulting in the loss of the investment capitol. With the Fed now doubling back on its earlier announced plan to ease rate increases – in the face of the labor market ‘strength’ – and looking to resume aggressive rate increases, banks and other investment firms will likely face similar portfolio losses and have their financial solubility threatened.

Yield on 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes further inverted, with the yield on the 10-year falling 103 basis points, or 1.03 percentage points, below the yield on the 2-year yield. This dynamic has preceded each of the last eight U.S. recessions.

RELATED? - Wells Fargo on Friday scrambled to respond to customers who reported deposits were missing from their accounts. Customers complained about missing deposits in their accounts. Wells Fargo blamed the problem on computer errors.

More RELATED – Several days ago, Silvergate, the crypto bank, collapsed. The bank was where most of the big crypto firms went, because traditional banks did not want to do business with them. And that reluctance stemmed from warnings from regulators who consider the crypto industry a risky sector. The company said on March 8 that it intended “to wind down operations and voluntarily liquidate the bank in an orderly manner and in accordance with applicable regulatory processes.”

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Jobs and no jobs. According to the BLS, the US added another 311,000 jobs in February, while wage growth cooled just a tad. The U-3 unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 3.6% as the labor force grew by 419,000. OTOH, layoffs from major companies are on the rise. What to base forecasts on?

OBSERVATION – Probably cooked job numbers versus the growing layoffs make for a confusing mix of signals. What isn’t mixed it the Fed’s view that the job market if too ‘strong’ and that they view that as a key driver of inflation. Therefore, the fed has pivoted back to plans to maintain aggressive rate increase – the announcement of which threw the stock markets down nearly 600 points last week before the SVB meltdown.

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Motor club AAA put the national average retail price at $3.47 per gallon for Friday, an increase of about 8 cents per gallon from this time last week.
Much of the increase is attributed to the switch to the summer grade of gasoline, a switch that’s mandated for refineries by March 1.

CW2/Domestic violence –

I’ve noted a rise in violence by Antifa while supporting smaller events. Case in point at an Antifa protest against a meeting in Sacramento discussing reverse transitioning Antifa beat up two nonaffiliated journalists while the police watched and did nothing. Seems Antifa is itching for a fight and this may turn into a hot summer with a bunch of unaffiliated riots/violence by Antifa.

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Visa Inc., MasterCard Inc., and Discover Inc., have paused their work on a plan to track when cardholders make purchases at gun stores.

“Today, there are bills advancing in several states related to the use of this new code. If passed, the result will be an inconsistency in how this ISO standard could be applied by merchants, issuers, acquirers and networks,” said Seth Eisen, senior vice president of communications for Mastercard. “It’s for that reason that we have decided to pause work on the implementation of the firearms-specific MCC.”

MasterCard said MCCs do not offer enough detail on specific purchases to be of much use in resolving larger issues surrounding the gun debate. The tracking system would only monitor the total purchases made in a gun store and would not distinguish which items were bought. Someone buying a rifle or ammunition, for example, would be put in the same category as if they bought safety or hunting gear.

Republican lawmakers in states including Texas, Florida, Mississippi, Oklahoma, West Virginia and Wyoming have responded with legislation that would prohibit or limit banks from using the IOS’ codes for gun sellers.

OBSERVATION - These cards have had significant push back on their implimention plans and certainly the legislative effort in many states to forbid such tracking are playing a big part. This will not stop the gun grabbers or WEF backed globalists from trying another way to not only track but eventually ban purchase of firearms and ammo.

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When asked for a solution to new pro-life laws around the country, Jane Fonda declared that they need to “murder” Republican politicians.
Joy Behar immediately jumps in to claim “she’s just kidding,” warning “they’ll pick up on that and run with it.” Fonda gives a negative look.

OBSERVATION – Hanoi Jane just spoke what many of the Marxist democrats believe – murder opposition to secure their power. Communism has literally killed millions over the past decades to silence opposition and maintain their power. To them it is “wash - rinse – repeat”. Behar caught the truth being stated and tried to deflect. Sorry, damage already done and more of their mind washed, drooling followers fed the Marxist agenda.

Domestic / International Terror (modified)-

The FBI arrested Sarah Beth Clendaniel of Catonsville and Brandon Russell of Orlando, Florida, last month. Federal prosecutors allege that the pair were planning to destroy five energy facilities in Norrisville, Reisterstown, Perry Hall and other parts of the Baltimore area.

Clendaniel, 34, and Russell, 27, plotted to shoot up and damage the substations because they thought the attacks would “completely destroy this whole city [of Baltimore]” and cause a “cascading failure costing billions of dollars,” according to an FBI affidavit.

According to the affidavit, Clendaniel told a FBI source that she had a terminal kidney disease, was “unlikely to live more than a few months” and “wanted to accomplish something worthwhile” before her death.

Two months before her arrest, Clendaniel posted tweets to her still-active Twitter account, referencing previously attempted substation attacks. She also praised Adolf Hitler, the Taliban and Ted Kaczynski

OBSERVATION – Mentally challenged leftists who just want to destroy and create anarchy. Not the white domestic terrorist scenario the MSM keeps pushing.

POLITICAL FRONT –

The released videos from the J6 protest have combined with other formerly suppressed videos and leaked evidence from the FBI of govt malfeasance in the whole affair. Fundamentally, these videos are exculpatory evidence the feds withheld from the trials – a huge NO NO and has put fed prosecutors on their heels.

Now, the fed prosecution of the Proud Boys has blown up due to unintentionally leaked chat logs from FBI Special Agent Nicole Miller revealed she said she was ordered by her boss to “destroy” “338 items of evidence.”

The leaked chats also suggest Miller failed to reveal relevant communications to the defense, potentially spied on privileged attorney-client communications and was asked by another agent to “edit out that I was present” during a meeting with a Confidential Human Source Informant.

Basically, concealing evidence, doctoring evidence, destroying evidence and violating attorney-client privilege via intercepted / monitored privilaged communication.

OBSERVATION - As more of this evidence comes out – the more it is evident that the govt executed and participated in a fraud to frame any opponent of the current regime as a terrorist in a scheme to have their voices silenced and politically assaulted via a corrupt legal system. In a just society, the DoJ/FBI and others would be facing trial for these gross violations of the constitution and law.

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Twitter Files follow-on. Matt Taibbi and Michael Shellenberger are two of the journalists who have participated in the Twitter Files project. They testified at the Hearing on the Weaponization of the Federal Government on the Twitter Files conducted by the House Judiciary this week. Democrats tried to smear their character as well as force them to reveal their sources. Attempts that failed epically. However, the simple fact that they tried so hard is disgraceful and reinforces the content of the released Twitter file reports.

OBSERVATION - Democrats have deemed these and others associated with similar releases threats to democracy and will do all they can to silence their voices. Besides exposing the vile puss of democrat censorship efforts, I doubt very little else will follow given that the swamp is in solid control of the rest of the govt.

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Following a lot of heat for releasing the J6 videos to Tucker Carleson, Majority leader McCarthy has announce that they will become available to the public in general – ensureing wider distribution of the footage that has so far painted a significantly different story than that the J6 edited together in secret.

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NewsGuard, a left-wing media monitoring organization which claims to rate the credibility of news websites, was awarded nearly $750,000 from the Department of Defense in 2021 according to publicly available records.
The revelation comes in the latest “Twitter Files” post by Matt Taibbi.
In a series of posts detailing internal communications among Twitter executives, Taibbi suggests a collaboration of government and the company of what appears to be a coordinated effort to censor or slant information available to the public and individuals — particularly conservatives.

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/newsguard-pentagon-contract/2023/03/10/id/1111849/

OBSERVATION – Just more of the muck exposed in the recent Twitter files releases.

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On another note - WASHINGTON (AP) — Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell suffered a concussion after a fall at a local hotel and remains hospitalized “for a few days of observation and treatment,” a spokesman said Thursday.

The Kentucky senator, 81, was at a Wednesday evening dinner for the Senate Leadership Fund, a campaign committee aligned with him, when he tripped and was admitted to the hospital, his office said.

OBSERVATION – This may affect his future plans in the senate and continued senate leadership – leading to a retirement at the end of his term at the very least.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted

This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures rising to the mid 30’s – lower 40s with rain/snow over most of the forecast period

RUMINT –
The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) are preparing for a counteroffensive, which will begin in about two months, Mykhailo Podolyak, advisor to the head of the presidential office has said.

“We are not in a hurry, we will reorganize over the next two months. We will exhaust the Russians in Bakhmut and then focus elsewhere,” Podolyak said in an interview published today by the Italian newspaper La Stampa.

OBSERVATION- Not a secret that Ukraine is preparing for an offensive and the time frame – post mud season – is well understood. Most of his statement is propaganda directed towards Russia.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Action has slowed down a little, though considerable fighting continues around Bahkmut and west-northwest of Donetsk. Russian indiscriminate artillery strikes hit Kherson and surrounding, killing civilians.

OUTLOOK –
(Reuters) - Ukraine has decided to fight on in the ruined city of Bakhmut because the battle is pinning down Russia’s best units and degrading them ahead of a planned Ukrainian spring counter-offensive, an aide to President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said.
NOTE- as I’ve said before, this is a Ukrainian rope-a-dope and on a strategic level it appears to be working, even though Ukraine is loosing ground, they are essentially preparing the battlefield for their turn and denying Russia key forces they will need to blunt any offensive.

Looks as Ukraine is trading terrain for time, allowing Russia to overextend and expose its logistics again. It has more lethal and accurate methods of attacking command, logistics and troop concentrations than ever before and they are appear to be allowing Russia to blunder into the same mistakes they started the war with. Russian gains are not without a high loss, while Ukraine conducts an economy of force operation. I expect to see the same slogs to continue and there currently isn’t anything to indicate that Bahkmut is going to fall in the near term. That my happen only if Russia is able to fully cut logistics support to the defenders - something Ukrainian reinforcements have been preventing.

Moldova/Transnistria -

US intel saying Russian agitators are seeking to stir up more trouble between these elements.

Israel –

Israeli leadership is recalculating its diplomatic efforts in the face of the recently announced Saudi Arabia/Iran diplomatic agreements.

Armenia/Azerbaijan –

Observers are noting that Armenia has been reinforcing its border strongpoints over the winter, apparently in anticipation of more attacks from Azerbaijan.

Misc of Note –

Monitoring the rain on snow event ongoing in Kalifornia. The focal point of the pineapple express seems to be central kalifornia/San Juaquin valley and associated Sierra Nevada mountain snow pack. Affects are being felt in N Kalifornia, but not to the same extent. N Cal flood control measures are holding. Flood control in the central regions is marginal.
.

Once again, sanity is ripped away by Daylight Savings Time. When will those wonks in congress get a clue and end it?

Globalism / Great Reset –
The Dutch military has been deployed in The Hague, in order to enforce the tractor ban in the city as Farmers Protest accelerates. Their ultimatum “No farmers, no food” against govt regulations in the name climate control.

OBSERVATION – WEF sociopath Belgium using the same game plan Canada did to shut down its trucker protests. People say the WEF has no means of forcing the world to do its bidding – yet here again a willing country/govt is doing the WEFs bidding in its war on food production and the foolishness of global warming.

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A new, radical climate amendment that will be voted on by Berliners on March 26th in a referendum that could change Berlin’s climate targets to enforceable obligations, thus clearing the way for radical CO2 reduction measures by an unelected council.
Draft amendment: carbon neutrality by 2030 instead of 2045!

The amendment would be so radical that even Berlin SPD socialists consider it dangerous and speak of an “empowerment paragraph” in the law that would transfer immense power to a small group of unelected people, namely a Climate Protection Council appointed by the Berlin Senate.
Concerning paragraph 6 of the new amendment, “Immediate program in the event of non-fulfillment of obligations”, the SPD explicitly warns that climate targets have been changed to “obligations”, which would mean the Berlin Senate probably would have to implement immediate radical measures to achieve the obligations, even by court order.

OBSERVATION - Commentators note that among the requirements this may generate may extend to the elimination of cars, reduction in air traffic at the airport, property owners forced to make major renovations for energy conservation,

Wuhan virus –

Today we remember the great toilet paper run from three years ago

**
Congress passed and sent to biden’s desk the COVID-19 Origin Act, which would require the Office of the Director of National Intelligence to declassify all information held by U.S. agencies related to potential links between the Wuhan Institute of Virology and the COVID-19 pandemic. It is uncertain if biden will sign or veto the measure.

**
The Pentagon said in a recent letter to lawmakers that it could kick out as many as 16,000 unvaccinated troops, despite its coronavirus vaccine mandate no longer being in effect.

The letter, from the Under Secretary of Defense for Military Personnel Gilbert Cisneros, said that despite the mandate no longer being in effect, military officials “continue to review cases on an individual basis to determine appropriate action” for troops who did not get vaccinated and did not request an exemption.

That would apply to approximately 16,000 unvaccinated troops, according to the letter, which revealed that approximately 69,000 troops remained unvaccinated, but 53,000 requested some kind of exemption, either religious, medical, or administrative.

The remaining 16,000 could still be subject to separation, according to the Pentagon — despite Republicans forcing the administration to rescind the mandate late last year via the 2023 National Defense Authorization Act.

OBSERVATION – The message is that the leadership does not have the back of our military. Everything continues to scream that this is a deliberate action by the wokists to harm and demoralize our military.

Economy –

NOTE – Things are happening fast this morning so this section may be missing some of the latest.

Aftershocks continued to reverberate over the weekend as the powers that be scrambled to prevent a catastrophic series of bank runs and failures. For starters U.S. Yellen ruled out a bailout of Silicon Valley Bank, we’ll see how that plays out below.

The fallout from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) is beginning to spread around the world, with Friday’s dramatic failure of the US parent bank, which focuses on tech start-ups, the biggest since the 2008 financial crisis.

On Saturday, the leaders of more than 250 tech companies sent a letter calling on UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt to intervene. “The loss of deposits has the potential to cripple the sector and set the ecosystem back 20 years,” they said in the letter. “Many businesses will be sent into involuntary liquidation overnight.”

SVB had branches in China, Denmark, Germany, India, Israel and Sweden, too. Founders are warning that the bank’s failure could wipe out start-ups around the world without government intervention.

Bank #2 went down as the Treasury announced that New York State regulators are shuttering Signature Bank - a major New York bank - adding that all depositors both at Signature Bank, and also the now insolvent Silicon Valley Bank, will have access to their money on Monday.

The Fed announced yesterday that –
“To support American businesses and households, the Federal Reserve Board on Sunday announced it will make available additional funding to eligible depository institutions to help assure banks have the ability to meet the needs of all their depositors.

The boards of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and the Federal Reserve, in consultation with President Joe Biden, approved the FDIC’s resolution of SVB, according to a joint statement from U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg on Sunday evening.

The move will not lead to losses by American taxpayers and all depositors will be made whole, the statement said.

“Today we are taking decisive actions to protect the U.S. economy by strengthening public confidence in our banking system,” the statement said. “This step will ensure that the U.S. banking system continues to perform its vital roles of protecting deposits and providing access to credit to households and businesses in a manner that promotes strong and sustainable economic growth.”

The Federal Reserve is prepared to address any liquidity pressures that may arise.
The additional funding will be made available through the creation of a new Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), offering loans of up to one year in length to banks, savings associations, credit unions, and other eligible depository institutions pledging U.S. Treasuries, agency debt and mortgage-backed securities, and other qualifying assets as collateral. These assets will be valued at par. The BTFP will be an additional source of liquidity against high-quality securities, eliminating an institution’s need to quickly sell those securities in times of stress.
With approval of the Treasury Secretary, the Department of the Treasury will make available up to $25 billion from the Exchange Stabilization Fund as a backstop for the BTF.”

Contagion is spreading and the Fed/FDIC quick fix may not be enough. First Republic Bank shares are trading down 60% in the pre-open as regional banks come under suspicion of liquidity and solvency problems. First Republic Bank is the 14th largest bank in the United States, while SVB and Signature were the 16th and 29th largest, respectively.

OBSERVATION – From what I’ve been able to figure out from all this high faloouting financial papering over of this crisis is that essentially FDIC now has no caps on insuring deposits – thus covering the billions that were in limbo, as well as working to extablish a Fed backed expanded insurance plan. This is a bail out – no doubt- but one that bypasses the congress for now.

Another component is that banks that bought low interest rate long term bond can sell them and get current rate prices – IF I’ve read the material correctly.

Many I’ve read have wonders if it is sufficient to stop the further crumbling of dozens of banks nation wide and the shut down of thousands of businesses globally that had their money in one bank. Many think this won’t be enough as the fear has hit the market and people will be scrambling to get their money out of questionably secured banks into more protected vehicles.

BTW – apparently the individual in charge of “Risk Assessment” – who was suppose to look out after the bank and avoid messes like this – devoted her time to WOKE causes.

**
February’s Consumer Price Index reading is out tomorrow morning. Another month-over-month increase may put pressure on the Fed to forge ahead with another rate increase. This will add fuel to the ongoing banking fire. If the Fed pauses rate increases, some fear this will re-ignite inflation.

**
Bank Watch - Bank shares plummeted up to 74 percent in pre-market this morning despite Biden’s efforts to calm investors after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.

First Republic Bank, whose clientele include Mark Zuckerberg, saw its shares drop as low as $21.50 from a high of $81.76 amid fears of a banking rout when Wall Street opens trading at 9.30am.
Biden is due to speak at 8am in an attempt to shore up trust in the sector after the White House yesterday guaranteed it would make SVB customers ‘whole’ and that ‘no losses will be borne by the taxpayer.’

In premarket moves, PacWest Bancorp’s stock tumbled 41 percent, Western Alliance Bancorp’s shares slid 33 percent and Bank of America’s stock fell 4 percent.

Banks across America are sitting on $620 billion of ‘unrealized losses’ - assets which have decreased in value but have not yet been sold - - the head of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation warned.

**
The Department of Interior (DOI) initiated a rulemaking process to “establish maximum protection” for 13 million acres of land across the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska. It was set aside by. Congress for resource development.
Biden added another 2.8 million acres withdrawn from oil and gas leasing in the Arctic Ocean off the northern coast of Alaska.
The DOI boasted in a statement about delivering “on the most aggressive climate agenda in American history.” They added gleefully that Biden “secured record investments in climate resilience and environmental justice.”
OBSERVATION – On going effort by the regime to harm our economy by making petroleum products more and more expensive. Remember, this doesn’t only affect gasoline - but a wide range of petroleum based products.

Invasion of Illegals –

A massive group of about 1,000 migrants have rushed a port of entry in El Paso trying to enter the U.S. Quick reaction by US border officials blocked the entry and prevented the group of largely military aged men to penetrate into the country.

OBSERVATION - Gates and riot control equipped border guards stopped it this time. Next time the illegals may well be better prepared to lethally force the gates.

**
The Daily Caller News Foundation has obtained maps and other information guides produced by the American Red Cross. They direct illegal immigrants on how to escape detection, survive the desert, obtain contraceptives, and even jump on trains safely. The Red Cross maps direct illegal aliens on how to cross into the United States safely and without getting caught.
OBSERVATION - Red Cross crossed the line back on 9/11 when they skimmed multiple millions of dollars donated to help NYC to buy office equipment (and other non-related stuff) instead. They should be charged with aiding and abetting human trafficking.

Biden / Harris watch –

Biden to talk on bank crisis soon.

Domestic / International Terror (modified)-

Texas Department of Public Safety (DPS) is urging individuals to avoid traveling to Mexico after three Texans went missing in Mexico.
“We have a duty to inform the public about safety, travel risks, and threats. Based on the volatile nature of cartel activity and the violence we are seeing there; we are urging individuals to avoid travel to Mexico at this time,” DPS Director Steven McCraw said.

Lt. Chris Olivarez from DPS especially warned Spring breakers to avoid Mexico.
“It is too dangerous with the increase in violence and kidnappings that are taking place in Mexico. So very important and I can’t stress enough to those who are thinking about traveling to Mexico, especially for Spring breakers,” Olivarez told the Fox News Network.

OBSERVATION – Drug cartels are running rampant and even the popular destinations thought to be ‘safe’ are no longer so. Add a bunch of drunk highschool/college students will FAFO in a deadly manner.

Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Big 11 day exercise with S Korea listed below.

Cyber Warfare –

Using the current banking crisis as an excuse - DHS efforts are already underway to add censorship of “financial misinformation” to CISA’s portfolio of “critical infrastructure” domains it can classify tweets as a cyber attack on, & thus censor.

China –

See Xi contacting Russia and Ukraine (see both sections below) with the goal of setting up a ceasefire of some kind.

North/South Korea –

South Korea and the United States have started the joint exercise dubbed “Freedom Shield.” The exercise will last 11 days with no breaks and will feature full-scale field exercises. The Nimitz CSG and submarines are expected to be dispatched to the Korean peninsula to partake in exercises.

North Korea’s Foreign Ministry says that the “heinous hostile acts of the US against the DPRK have reached such a grave level that we cannot stand idly by”. North Korea fired two cruise missiles from a submarine off the coastal city of Sinpo on Sunday morning, likely as a response to the planned exercise.

OBSERVATION – Expect all sorts of NK rhetoric and more missile launches over the next two weeks.

Japan –

The Japanese government is poised to set up about 130 ammunition storage facilities across the country in the next ten years, gearing toward boosting constant fighting capability to tackle the Taiwan Strait crisis.
The first four ammunition depots are expected to be constructed in 2023 in Aomori and Oita, two prefectures in the Self-Defense Force facilities, then in other areas by 2027, totaling about 70, and by 2033 build another 60, said Japanese Defense Minister Hamada Yasukazu in the Upper House budget committee on March 2.
OBSERVATION – Japan can read the tea leaves and is readying for eventual war.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

********

Putin met with Kadyrov in Kremlin, and he still was pictured firmly grasping the table in front of him – renewing health rumors.

RUMINT-
A meeting between China’s President Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin may happen as early as next week. China’s foreign ministry and Russian officials refused to comment on the potential summit, but a Reuters source says the meeting will happen in Moscow.
**

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures rising to the mid 30’s – lower 40s with rain/snow over most of the forecast period

RUMINT –
Chinese President Xi Jinping will reportedly meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky the week following Xi’s trip to Moscow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Speculation that Xi is trying to broker some kind of ceasefire

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
While fighting continues to be fierce there has been almost no Russian progress in Bakhmut in the last few days.

Fighting has picked up around Avdiyivka, north of Donetsk as it appears Russian forces are attempting to bypass that town in a similar fashion as Bahkmut.

OUTLOOK –
Focus of Russian efforts will continue to be Bahkmut, but some believe their efforts have essentially stalled out and absent a significant increase in men and other resources it will go not much further. The Bahkmut pocket is protected on the north and west by rivers/wetlands and the south Ukraine is conducting counter attacks.

Ukraine is admitting their losses have increased as the Russians worked their efforts to encircle the city, but the fact that they have tied down a substantial number of better quality Russian forces – and are bleeding them heavily – has effectively removed them from defending against the Ukrainian offensive.

Speaking of the Ukrainian offensive, training of Ukraine forces on new, western equipment is nearing completion, with M2 and Panther trained forces nearing graduation. Instructors indicate Ukrainian forces are quick learners. Still looking at a couple months for soil conditions to dry out – meaning more training and integration – before the optimal window for an offensive operation can open.

Moldova/Transnistria -

Situation still tense as rhetoric continues to fly between the two elements.

Israel –

The new Iran/Saudi Arabia accord is being viewed as a strategic loss for Israel.

Iran –

IRNA, is reporting that Iran has arrested more than 100 people in connection to the serial poisoning of schoolgirls in that country. Iran’s Interior Ministry released a statement that the people connected to the poisonings had been “identified, arrested, and investigated” in several cities, including the capital Tehran.

OBSERVATION – IRNA is the propaganda arm of the regime, so this report should be considered questionable

Central / South America General-

The Colombian government and the leftist guerrilla group, National Liberation Army (ELN), have closed their second cycle of peace talks in Mexico City. (FO)

OBSERVATION – They have been fighting for about 60 years now.

Armenia/Azerbaijan –

Armenian news site Lurer reports that Azerbaijan has accumulated a large number of troops and military equipment on the Artsakh/Nagorno-Karabakh border with Azerbaijan. Bayraktar drones have reportedly also been brought near the border.

OBSERVATION – With spring comes war and it appears that Azerbaijan is looking to take advantage of Russia’s pre-occupation with Ukraine to expand its fight with Armenia to regain control of more of the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh border zone.

Misc of Note –

Rain in low elevations and foothills, and snow at high elevations, from northern to central California, as well as northwest Nevada, and Oregon is expected into Monday at a slightly lower intensity.
Rain and snow will intensify late Monday into Wednesday, with considerable flooding impacts below 1.5 km (5 000 feet) elevation across much of the California coast and Central Valley, and over the southern Sierra Nevada foothills into midweek.
Heavier rain, snow, and snowmelt are likely midweek, resulting in more widespread flooding from Tuesday into Wednesday, particularly in low elevations and areas with shallow and warming snowpack. Creeks and streams will continue to be vulnerable to flooding from additional rain and snowmelt.
OBSERVATION – More hazardous conditions in Kalifornia.

Happy Pie day . . .

Economy –

The banking world continues to feel aftershock from Monday’s mad scramble to stem a broader collapse of banks. Bank stocks and indices in Asia, Australia, and Europe fell amid news of Silicon Valley Bank, and Signature Bank collapses in the United States. Germany’s Commerzbank fell 12.7%, Credit Suisse dropped 9.6% to a record low, and Japan’s banking subindex fell 6.7% to its lowest since December 2022. U.S. banks lost more than $90 billion in stock value Monday, with regional banks hit the hardest. First Republic Bank, Western Alliance Bancorp, and PacWest Bancorp lost over 60%.

Observers are noting that the “not a bailout” bailout using the FDIC will be forcing participating banking entities to up their contribution to the fund now that there are no limits to deposit insurance – those increased fees will be passed along to customers via fees and other charges.

**
The banking turmoil has caused eyes to focus more on Credit Suisse who some think could be the next big bank failure. It has been in a shakey position ever since posting an $8 billion loss for 2022.

**
Investors swarmed into U.S government bonds Monday after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and subsequent government backstop of the banking system. The rush sent Treasury yields tumbling.
The yield on the 2-year Treasury was last trading at 4.005%, down nearly 59 basis points. (1 basis point equals 0.01%. Prices move inversely to yields.)

**
Markets still expect the Fed to keep up its inflation-fighting efforts, despite high-profile bank failures that have rattled the financial system. Traders on Monday assigned an 85% probability of a 0.25 percentage point interest rate increase when the Federal Open Market Committee meets March 21-22.

**
Being underreported in the face of the banking crisis and inflationary battle is that in 2023 the Fed will post its first annual operating loss of $80 billion since 1915. It will have a negative capital of $38B. This loss does not count the $1.3 trillion unrealized loss on its portfolio.

Biden / Harris watch –

President Biden said due to quick actions taken by his administration over the weekend, Americans could have confidence that the U.S. banking system is safe. He then shuffled off the platform without answering any questions.

CW2/Domestic violence –

Biden is set to issue an executive order that aims to increase the number of background checks conducted before firearm sales.
It aims to move the US “as close to universal background checks as possible without additional legislation”.

Biden will direct the US attorney general to clarify the statutory definition of who is “engaged in the business” of dealing in firearms, to devise a plan that prevents firearms dealers whose licenses were revoked from continuing to sell, and to name and shame firearms dealers who are breaking the law.

Separately, the measure asks the Federal Trade Commission to issue a report on how gun manufacturers target civilians, especially minors.

The order includes a call for raising public awareness over “red flag” laws, also known as extreme risk protection orders. Signed in 19 states and the District of Columbia, these laws allow individuals to petition a court to temporarily confiscate guns from people with potentially violent or harmful behavior.

OBSERVATION – A key component, one that ATF has been focusing on is removal of FFLs from businesses for the very minor most infractions. This EO additionally zeros in on occasional sellers. Looks like more burocrap regulations to make sales more difficult and bogus studied on how gun manufacturers ‘target’ minors. When was the last time you saw a gun ad on TV eh?

Related - U.S. Gun Sales Pass One Million Mark for 43rd Month in a Row in February – Though sales are down from their record highs of 2020 and 2021, guns are still in hot demand based on the latest retail data and FBI background checks. According to the National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF), the firearm industry trade association, sales of firearms surpassed 1.3 million units in February – even with fewer days on the calendar.

OBSERVATION - The regime needs a disarmed America to cement its agenda as it tries to align itself with the directives of the WEF.

North/South Korea –

NK fired another short range missile into the Sea of Japan, most likely in protest of the US/SK training exercise.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

********

Yesterday, Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov continued his efforts to maintain Chechnya’s relevance in the Russian political and military sphere in his meeting with putin. I forgot to note that his shaky hands and actions caused many to observe that he wasn’t well either.

RUMINT-
Shoigu & Gerasimov are taking their long-awaited revenge on Prigozhin against the backdrop of the Battle of Bakhmut. The Russian MoD – specifically Shoigu and Gerasimov - is likely seizing the opportunity to deliberately expend both elite and convict Wagner forces in Bakhmut in an effort to weaken Prigozhin and derail his ambitions for greater influence in the Kremlin. The Russian MoD had been increasingly restricting Prigozhin’s ability to recruit convicts and secure ammunition, forcing Prigozhin to publicly recognize his dependency on the Russian MoD

Prigozhin likely convinced Putin that he would be able to seize Bakhmut if given access to the Russian MoD’s ammunition stocks and allowed to expand his existing ultranationalist recruitment campaigns to include regular Russians and prisoners. Putin’s decision to side with Prigozhin likely angered Shoigu and Gerasimov, who were then tasked with sharing limited equipment and ammunition with Wagner mercenaries.

Kremlin officials also confirmed that Putin has been increasingly preferring loyalty over competence within his inner circle, and Putin may have perceived Prigozhin’s critiques a form of disloyalty. Prigozhin likely did not intend to challenge Putin directly, but Putin likely saw Prigozhin’s aggressive self-promotion at the expense of others who had Putin’s trust as a threat. Shoigu & Gerasimov, on the other hand, have been loyal to Putin and his regime structure for years.

OBSERVATION – RUMINT, - quite the soap opera but highly likely based on the public statements and known animosity between the parties. The MoD is willing to lose battles and combat power in revenge against a political enemy.

Economic Impact –
Kazakhstan seized the property of Roscosmos of Russia. The Kazakh authorities seized the property of the main operator of Russian spaceports - the Center for the Operation of Ground-Based Space Infrastructure (TsENKI). A formal reason is a debt of 2 billion rubles.

Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures rising to the mid 30’s – lower 40s with rain/snow over most of the forecast period

RUMINT –
RUMINT. Russian sources, including those close to Wagner, report that the armed forces of Ukraine have a large strike group made up of up to 10 brigades currently in Chasiv Yar, preparing to conduct a wide counterattack in the Bakhmut direction. They claim that Ukraine will probably be using new Leopard tanks and strike drones during this attack.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting picked up overnight around Kreminna, Bahkmut and Donetsk. Russia reportedly made little to no gains.

OUTLOOK –
Contrary to the massive RUMINT from Russian milbloggers of a massive Ukranian counter offensive, I think it is too early for this. However, I think the milblogger fears are well justified in that Russia’s offensive is bogging down in the mud and Urkraine’s meat grinder defense is making conditions favorable for their eventual offensive. Now is an unlikely time because the mud will severely limit off road maneuver by armor. When things dry out later will be optimal.

Continued Bahkmut focus by Russia with increasing localized counterattacks by Ukraine. Seems Russia trying to turn up the heat in Kreminna and Donetsk, but having little success. Not expecting any major breakthrough/outs in the near term.

Moldova/Transnistria -

Situation still tense as rhetoric continues to fly between the two elements.

.
Europe / NATO General –

The Parliament of Lithuania classifies the Russian Wagner forces as a terrorist group

SERBIA / KOSOVO -

The Minister of Economy of Serbia spoke out in favor of sanctions against Russia.

“Serbia is already paying a heavy price for refusing to impose sanctions against Russia. I support the introduction of sanctions”, Rade Bashta.

OBSERVATION – this is quite the turn for Serbia, to go from attempting to create a conflict with Kosovo to divert NATO attention from Ukraine – doing Russia’s bidding – to openly against Russia. Apparently Russia isn’t coughing up the rubles and EU membership looks to be a better, more profitable goal than close friendship to Russia.

Iran –

Iran is working to establish a radar network in Syria to get early warning of Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, defense officials.

**
Anti-regime protests are reported in several parts of Tehran, capital city of Iran tonight. Iran is looking to redeploy security forces as it anticipates that protests/riots will continue and increase this week.

Saudi Arabia –

Saudi Arabia will watch Iran’s behavior during the two-month window agreed upon to restore diplomatic ties, Saudi columnists said Sunday, reflecting wariness of the rapprochement between the region’s Sunni Muslim and Shiite rival powers.

“The two-month period… is the first test of Iran’s credibility and proof of good intentions as we must see the start of real change in the regional landscape and a real correction in its dealings with the Kingdom,” Saudi columnist Hamoud Abu Taleb wrote in the Okaz daily.

OBSERVATION – Said the scorpion to the frog – you always knew I was a scorpion and will sting you – as they sank to their death in the river.

Black Swans

Yesterday was the anniversary of The Great Quebec Blackout. On March 13, 1989, the Hydro-Québec power grid failed after a solar storm, as a coronal mass ejection (CME) struck the Earth’s magnetosphere. The blackout lasted nine hours.

Dr. David Boteler, head of the Space Weather Group at Natural Resources Canada described the event: “It was the biggest geomagnetic storm of the Space Age. March 1989 has become the archetypal disturbance for understanding how solar activity can cause blackouts.”

IIRC - that was the result of a X15 rated solar flare.

Economy –

Aftershocks continue to reverberate globally following the SVB crash. Moody’s cut the outlook on entire U.S. banking system to negative from stable, citing a “rapidly deteriorating operating environment.” Moody’s placed First Republic Bank (FRC), Zions (ZION), Western Alliance (WAL), Comerica (CMA), UMB Financial (UMBF) and Intrust Financial on review, meaning the banks are now perceived as more risky investments by lenders.

Finger pointing on the cause of the mismanagement range from SVB spending all its time on organizing and supporting woke agenda, to bipartisan regulatory reforms, to Trump. I don’t expect to learn the full cause because of the PR maelstrom going on.

**
The government said Tuesday that prices increased 0.4% last month, just below January’s 0.5% rise. Yet excluding volatile food and energy costs, so-called core prices rose 0.5% in February, slightly above January’s 0.4% gain. The Fed pays particular attention to the core measure as a gauge of underlying inflation pressures.

When measured against prices a year ago, inflation has been easing for eight months. In February, consumer prices climbed 6% from 12 months earlier, down from January’s 6.4% year-over-year increase and well below a recent peak of 9.1% in June. Yet it remains far above the Fed’s 2% annual inflation target. Core prices in February rose 5.5% from 12 months ago, down slightly from 5.6% in January.

OBSERVATION – With rising energy prices forecast for the coming months and still questionable food price stability, the Fed is not out of the woods yet. It is expected that the Fed will raise the rate a quarter of a point but hold back steeper rises because of the banking turmoil its rapid raising of rates has created.

Invasion of Illegals –

Texas is in the process of passing a law that makes illegal entry into Texas a felony and authorizes local law enforcement to arrest and even direct illegals back across the border. Included is the deputization of citizens. Democrats heads are exploding at the ramifications of the bill which could go a long way to stop the flood of illegals into the state.

Biden / Harris watch –

“Transgender kids is a really harder thing,” he began. “What’s going on in Florida is, as my mother would say, close to sinful. I mean it’s terrible what they’re doing.”

CW2/Domestic violence –

Riot police confronted Antifa rioters at UC Davis overnight who showed up to disrupt a TPUSA talk by Charlie Kirk. Antifa vandalized buildings and threatened attendees. The riot was preceded by an inflammatory address by the university chancellor as well as an out right lie tweeted by an associate opinion editor for the Sac Bee.
TPUSA’s Rebecca Brannon tweeted: “Antifa and far leftists pepper spray and hit UC Davis student with umbrellas. “

OBSERVATION – I’ve noted that Antifa seems to be spoiling more and more for a fight. The UCD protest is the latest. However, I’m also noting that a more ‘formal’ core Antifa cell is growing in the Sacramento area. Reference to last week where Antifa formed up near the capitol to protest a anti-trans event featuring those who transitioned back to their biological gender. At that event, several independent journalists were assaulted. Just a few years ago when I was still working in Sac, Antifa/BLM were not as aggressive. BLM caused more problems and most Antifa came in from the Bay Area. Looks like more of the turnout was local based Antifa.

Warning – Antifa is becoming more aggressive and violent - perhaps looking to provoke an event that they can springboard for a national level protest. Protests like UCD serve to promote recruitment of like minded thugs and miscreants.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

********

Putin is meeting with Assad today. See Syria below.

Russian aircraft collided with U.S. drone over Black Sea. No injuries reported. Per US EUCOM, “At approximately 7:03 AM CET, a Russian Su-27 aircraft struck the propeller an MQ-9, causing U.S. forces to have to bring the MQ-9 down in international waters. Several times before the collision, the Su-27s dumped fuel on and flew in front of the MQ-9 in a reckless, environmentally unsound and unprofessional manner.”

Logistics –
Russia is reportedly reaching a critical point in their artillery supply. Intel sources note that they are being forced to use very old ammo – where the failure to explode rate is over 50%. The effects of the shell shortage are clearly visible on the front lines - the intensity of artillery fire by the Russian army has declined markedly. It is now firing about 10,000 rounds a day, down from about 20,000 rounds late last year and up to 30,000 rounds a day in the summer, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing military analysts.
NOTE – Russian strategy in Ukraine relies heavily on artillery laying down a curtain of steel behind which troops follow. The inability to suppress Ukrainian positions is leading to high causalities.

Russian Personnel Issues –-
Russian media outlet Verstka reports Russian military enlistment offices starting new mobilization campaign for war in Ukraine. Eligible men will be summoned to enlistment offices to “update personal data” and will be offered to go to Ukraine voluntarily.

Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures rising to the mid 30’s – lower 40s with rain/snow over most of the forecast period

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting continues around Bakhmut and Avdiivka. Warm, wet weather slowing operations on both sides. Ukrainian counter attacks are managing to keep supply lines to Bakhmut open but at a heavy cost to Ukraine forces.

OUTLOOK –
Nothing on my screen to indicate any significant changes to the tactical situation in eastern Ukraine. It appears that the political decision to continue holding Bahkmut is steadfast and on a strategic level - stripping Russia of key combat units they will need when the Ukraine offensive hits. The economy of force mobile defense Ukraine has been able to maintain is allowing it to organize and equip forces for a later spring offensive.

Just where that offensive will be focused is not evident, though I think the direct south assault from Zaporizhizhia towards Crimea is a prime candidate. A second would be the Kreminna-Svatove line. Any inklings now put out by Ukraine is nothing more than propaganda and misdirection.

Russia’s intercept of the US drone may result in fighter escorts of drone recce aircraft in the future. The Reaper drone was a minor collection platform. However, the US has been flying a Global Hawk drone almost daily since the start on the war in the same general region of the Black Sea. Its high altitude may deter Russian intercept, but an attempted take down of that asset may escalate the situation in the air.

Belarus -

Russian forces noted rotating in/out of training.
No offensive postures/deployments noted.

Syria -

The Kremlin confirmed Tuesday that Putin will meet with Assad on Wednesday — the anniversary of the conflict — in a statement carried by Russia’s state news agency Tass.
According to the statement, “further development of Russian-Syrian cooperation in the political, trade, economic and humanitarian spheres, as well as the prospects for a comprehensive settlement of the situation in and around Syria,” will be on the agenda.

OBSERVATION – Assad needs Russian support to maintain his efforts to regain control of the northern portions of Syria. Russia can no longer guarantee that same level of support due to Ukraine. Russian / Israeli friction of late is not helping matters either as Israel is able to strike Hezbollah / Iranian targets in Syria at will. Should Russia try to engage IAF aircraft, they will soon find their launchers a smoldering wreck and more troops killed. Russia is having challenges maintaining its own information sphere on Ukraine war losses already

Central / South America General-

Argentina’s inflation rate has soared past 100% for the first time since the end of hyperinflation in the early 90s. Inflation hit 102.5% in February, the country’s statistics agency said, meaning the price of many consumer goods has more than doubled since 2022.

OBSERVATION – Inflation and associated economic woes plague central/south America. It is one of the drivers of illegals northward to the US.

Globalism / Great Reset –

See Credit Suisse in Economy below

**
See New York Quarantine lawsuit in Wuhan below

**
The Department of Energy is conducting this gas stove grab through a rule that would impose extreme energy performance standards on residential cooktops. The department’s proposed rule sets requirements for gas cooktops at the maximum technologically feasible or “max-tech” level. Based on the Department of Energy’s own analysis, gas cooktops at the max-tech level represent just 4% of current market share and exclude all conventional free-stand ranges.
Any rule that causes 96% of the products available today to be eliminated from the market is an extreme regulation. In fact, it is essentially an outright ban on gas stoves

OBSERVATION – Been following this for a while. Thwarted by backlash for a complete ban of gas stoves, they are now coming at it from a regulatory level – and achieving a 96% ban. I don’t remember the American people clammoring for such action, but this is just continuing evidence that the US is subordinate to the WEF and its goals.

**
More related energy control grabs – can also link to Economy below
“The Biden administration is strengthening the ‘Good Neighbor’ rule, to cut pollution from power plants and factories in the West and Midwest that wafts east.”

According to our long-suffering environmental journalist at the NY Times, Coral Davenport: “The Biden administration on Wednesday finalized a rule forcing factories and power plants in 23 Western and Midwestern states to sharply cut smog-causing pollution that is released from their smokestacks and fouls the air in Eastern states.”

“Known as the “good neighbor” rule, the new regulation strengthens and expands an earlier interstate air pollution standard that was enacted during the Obama administration. While that rule directed power plants to clean up their emissions, the revised rule enforces similar controls on mills, factories and other industrial facilities.”

“The good neighbor rule holds that states should take measures to ensure that their pollution doesn’t affect downwind states. It directs coal-burning power plants and industrial facilities such as iron, steel, cement and concrete manufacturers in the Western and Midwestern states to reduce their emissions of nitrogen dioxide, a pollutant that causes smog and is linked to asthma, lung disease and premature death.”

“Soot and exhaust belched from those industrial facilities is carried by prevailing winds toward Eastern states, causing high levels of pollution in states with fewer industries.”

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/03/16/e-p-a-tells-states-clean-up-your-smokestacks/

OBSERVATION – Essentially EPA is grabbing more authority to regulate and change America’s primary energy production – and to force the politically motivated shift away from fossil fuels in both power production and industry towards the unicorn and rainbows of ‘green energy’. Meanwhile, they turn a blind eye to the disaster at East Palistine Ohio.

Wuhan virus –

Late in the day on Monday March 13, 2023, just hours before the deadline, New York Attorney General, Letitia James, filed an appeal to try to overturn our successful lawsuit that struck down Governor Hochul’s unconstitutional “Isolation and Quarantine Procedures” regulation.
The case, Borrello v. Hochul, which we won last July, was brought against the Governor and her Department of Health, on behalf of a group of NYS Legislators, Senator George Borrello, Assemblyman Chris Tague, Assemblyman (now Congressman) Mike Lawler, together with our citizens’ group, Uniting NYS.
The main premise of the case was breach of Separation of Powers – meaning the Governor and her Department of Health did not have the authority to make their dystopian “Isolation and Quarantine Procedures” regulation.

The Regulation:
For anyone unfamiliar with this regulation, it allowed the Department of Health to pick and choose which New Yorkers they could lock up or lock down, with no proof that you were ever even exposed to, let alone actually sick with, a communicable disease. They could have locked you down in your home, or they could have removed you from your home and forced you to quarantine in a facility of their choosing.
There was no time restriction, so you could have been quarantined for however long they required – days, weeks, months. There was no age restriction, so they could have done this to you, to your child, to your grandchild, etc. In the true fashion of a totalitarian regime, they could have told you what you could and could not do while in quarantine. They literally could have controlled your every move.

The regulation allowed them to use law enforcement to enforce their orders of isolation or quarantine, which means you could have received a knock at the door from your local police or sheriff telling you that you had to go with them… by order of the Health Department.

Furthermore, the regulation had no procedure by which you could be released from quarantine, no way for you to try to negotiate your way out. And it was not COVID19 specific. There was a laundry list of “communicable diseases” that could have triggered this nightmare loss of freedom – diseases such as Lyme, Toxic Shock Syndrome, COVID19 and so many others.

https://brownstone.org/articles/governor-hochul-files-appeal-in-quarantine-camp-lawsuit/

OBSERVATION – Article cited at length. This also put wuhan infected into nursing homes – killing untold seniors already suffering from ailments. This also shows the extreme medical tyranny that the powers that be want to maintain over the population – and just how willing the sheeple are to bow to any edict. Should the WHO get it way – similar edicts may come into effect globally – even here in the USA as a whole.

Economy –

More nasty facts are coming out about SVB and its activities that certainly contributed to its failure. SVB execs may have failed to hedge against interest rate risk, they did signal $73.45 million in virtue donating to Black Lives Matter and related entities, according to a database maintained by the Claremont Institute which lists nearly $83 billion in donations to the Marxist organization.

ALSO – CA gov Newscum likely violated the law in pushing for a bail out of SVB, given that three of his wineries accounts were held in the bank as well as a lot of other intermingling of interests. Newsom also didn’t mention his wife Jennifer Siebel’s professional ties to the bank. In 2021, Silicon Valley Bank gave $100,000 to the charity founded by Siebel, the California Partners Project, at the request of Newsom. John China, president of SVB Capital and responsible for SVB’s funds management, is himself a founding member of the California Partners Project’s board of directors.

OBSERVATION – Follow the money, SVB now appears to be up to its eyebrow in questionable actions and accounting.

**
Tyson Foods has announced plans to lay off nearly 1,700 employees. Tyson will be closing two chicken plants in May, one in Arkansas and one in Virginia.
In a statement, Tyson said it will be closing down the facilities and focusing on optimizing operations by utilizing full capacity at existing plants.

OBSERVATION – This will not help poultry prices in near or long term.

**
Yesterday, chaos increased with Credit Suisse shares dropped by as much as 30.8%, leading a 7% fall in the European banking index, while five-year credit default swaps (CDS) for the flagship Swiss bank hit a new record high, reviving fears of a broader threat to the financial system. Switzerland is under pressure from at least one major government to intervene quickly on Credit Suisse, a source familiar with the situation told Reuters, after the Swiss bank led a rout of European bank stocks on Wednesday.

Later last night, Credit Suisse announces $53.7 billion loan from Swiss central bank. Before that it was estimated that Credit Suisse had a probability of default of 47%.

OBSERVATION – The combination of a too fast rising Fed (and other govt) lending rates combined with poor management and shakey economic conditions left over from the wuhan plandemic will lead to more of these banks coming to the edge and some falling over in the coming months. These actions, like those for SVB, are only wallpaper over much broader banking problems. Please note – the WEF will leverage these crises as part of their economic ‘reset’. You don’t ‘reset’ unless the system gets completely broken.

RELATED - European Central Bank raised interest rates by 0.50% to 3.50% overnight.
This is doing the same to European banks as the fed increases to US banks. More evidence of potentially maneuvering for a global take down?

**
Fears of further meltdowns of smaller, regional banks like SVB has caused a lot of money transfers by individuals/companies out of such banks and into the bigger ones like BoA and Chase.

**
It is estimated that there is $620 billion unrealized potential loss remaining in the banking system – due largely to the rapid prime rate increases and corresponding jump in short term bonds versus long term bonds (which these banks invested heavily in). This is placing the Fed between a rock and a hard place. Though slightly lower, inflation is still far above the fed’s goals. However to continue increasing the rate will lead to more stress on the banking system. To back off rate increase, the fed sees the potential of inflation taking off again. This potential bomb was quietly acknowledged by the Federal Reserve’s emergency loan program that may have to inject as much as $2 trillion of funds into the US banking system and ease the liquidity crunch, according to JPMorgan Chase

**
USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack announced that $3 billion in grants had been requested across 47 states to build or expand domestic fertilizer production facilities. The USDA recently distributed $29 million to projects that can ramp up fertilizer production in 2023 or 2024.

OBSERVATION – It will take years and a maze of regulations to navigate through before this increased production actually hits the farm. There are not too many facilities that can ramp up short term production.

China –

According to Taiwanese authorities, defense spending is set to focus on a “total blockade” scenario by China. This is one of the most likely scenarios that China will use to force Taiwan to capitulate to its demands. It is the least risky to China but could force a confrontation sooner with the US and other nations that will force the blockaide to supply Taiwan.

North/South Korea –

A North Korean missile was launched at a high angle and flew for about 1,000 km and reached an altitude of roughly 6,000km before splashing into the Sea of Japan, outside the Japanese Economic Exclusion Zone.

With just over an hour of flight time, definitely within ICBM territory, Hwasong-15 or Hwasong-17 perhaps.

OBSERVATION – These high angle flight tests serve to help test reentry vehicles for eventual warheads. Because NK doesn’t have the assets to receive telemetry from the rocket, high angle shots are done. In contrast, US Minutemen ICBS are launched from the US and into US controlled areas of the Pacific.

**
Been noted for most of a year now, rumblings of a NK nuclear test are increasing given the current rhetoric from NK towards the south and US joint exercises. I expect such a test to be of a miniaturized warhead capable of being placed on their Hwasong-15 or Hwasong-17 ICBM or the rumored solid fuel ICBM under development.

Japan –

The Japanese Prime Minister has called an Emergency National Security Meeting following the ICBM launch by North Korea.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

********

It is being estimated that Russia has managed to increase the amount of territory it controls in Ukraine by 0.039% in February—the equivalent of around 233.94 sq km (90.3 sq mi). This at the cost of about 30,000 Russian lives.

**
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu following drone incident. This is the second time the two have spoken since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. -FOX

**
The Pentagon has released footage of what it says is a Russian aircraft conducting an unsafe intercept of a US Air Force surveillance drone in international airspace over the Black Sea.
The 42-second video shows a Russian Su-27 approaching the back of the MQ-9 drone and beginning to release fuel as it passes, the Pentagon said.
The US military said it ditched the MQ-9 Reaper in the sea Tuesday after the Russian fighter jet poured fuel on the unmanned aerial vehicle and then struck its propeller.

Economic Impact –
Putin urged Russia’s billionaires and business elite to invest in new technology, production facilities and enterprises to help Russia overcome what he said were Western attempts to destroy its economy. Putin told the business leaders that Russia was facing a “sanctions war” but was swiftly reorienting its economy towards countries that had not imposed sanctions on Russia, and thanked them for working to help the Russian state.

Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures rising to the mid 30’s – lower 40s with rain/snow over most of the forecast period

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting continues around Bakhmut and Avdiivka with minor gains by Russian forces. Heavy propaganda war by both sides over the significance of the fight for Bakhmut.

Russian Territory –
A fire tore through offices of the security services in a southern region of Russia bordering Ukraine, the emergency services said, according to Russian news agencies.
Images circulating on social media showed a massive blaze tearing through a building in a built-up urban area with a huge plume of black smoke billowing over the fire.
NOTE – Suspicious fires have been reported at significant facilities across Russia. Uncertain if related to espionage but this one definitely fits the bill for such.

OUTLOOK –
Russia is running out of time to achieve its goal of capturing Donbas. Since the start of its offensive, approximately 233.94 sq km (90.3 sq mi) of Ukraine territory has been seized – all at heavy losses in men and material. Russian forces are rapidly finding itself in a very weak position that Ukraine can exploit later in the spring. It will have to decide if continuing the fight for Bahkmut are worth the potential disaster a Ukrainian offensive can cause to overstretched and weakened forces.

US-RUSSIA ruffle over the drone downing may escalate if the US resumes flights in the near future. Further escalation if Turkey allows US naval forces into the Black Sea to recover the downed drone. Russian naval operations are already reported at the crash site, so it is unlikely that the US will get elements there soon enough to do any good, but may get forces there for future efforts – i.e. the next time Russia downs a drone or any related aircraft.

In order to have forces to blunt the Ukrainian offensive, Russia needs to push a new mobilization now as it takes multiple months of training to bring conscripts up to speed on equipment and organize units for battle. Some of the conscripts from last summer’s mobilization are getting training in Belarus, but Russia is behind the power curve to man-up for Ukraine’s turn.

Right now Russia’s defensive plans are to protect Crimea at all costs while trying to fix Ukrainian units in the east. Ukraine OTOH has a lot of options with the concentrated application of new equipment and trained soldiers in a combined arms strike anywhere along the front.

Finally, rumors of increased naval activity by Russian cruise missile capable ships deploying out into the Black Sea. I don’t think Russia has rebuilt the stock pile of missiles enough yet for a strike so soon after the last. Intervals have grown from less than a week to now nearly a month between barrages.

Poland –

Polish authorities have broken up a Russian espionage network and arrested a number of those involved who were planning sabotage operations inside the country. Minister of National Defense Mariusz Blaszczak described the effort as a “great success” and said additional details would be released later today.

OBSERVATION - These operations were likely directed to interrupting the supply lines into Ukraine from Poland.

.
Europe / NATO General –

Finnish president Sauli Niinisto will travel on Friday to Turkey to meet Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in a bid to seal the Finish application to join NATO. Ankara has signaled that it is ready to approve Finland’s bid to join NATO after months of hold ups from Erdogan, who is seeking reelection this year.

OBSERVATION - Economics may be starting to drive Erdogan’s move to ok Finland (and eventually Sweden) as economic conditions in Turkey – especially following the earthquakes – are in a tailspin and he can’t afford losing NATO and EU related trade.

Iran –

The Chinese Ministry of Defense this morning announced joint naval drills with Russia and Iran in the Gulf of Oman. The drills start today and run through 19 March.

OBSERVATION – More critical to Iran, but force projection by China. The Gulf of Oman is the key access point to the Persian Gulf and oil traffic. Exercise is more symbolic than tactical at this stage.

Syria -

Syria recognizes the self proclaimed ‘new borders’ of Russia which include Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzia regions ‘based on historical facts’, says Syrian President Al-Assad.

OBSERVATION – Assad in his meeting with putin yesterday had little to offer except to cheerlead.

Turkey -

“Turkey is ready to let US warships pass through the Bosphorus, because of the “incident” with the MQ-9 and Su-27” - Turkish Defense Minister

OBSERVATION - This in the context of ships to recover the remains of the drone Russia knocked down a couple days ago.

**
See NATO/Europe above on Finland and Sweden admittance to NATO above

A little more abbreviated today – busy day ahead.

Globalism / Great Reset –

The Federal Reserve Bank of the United States has announced that it is launching an instant payment transfer service called “FedNow Service,” which has features of a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) and some analysts believe is the first big step towards a “digital dollar.”
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced that the U.S. is rolling out the FedNow instant payment transfer service in July.
“The Federal Reserve announced that the FedNow Service will start operating in July and provided details on preparations for launch,” the announcement read.
https://beckernews.com/the-federal-reserve-announces-its-first-big-step-towards-a-digital-dollar-49617/

OBSERVATION – Incramentalism at its best.

Wuhan virus –

Remember - “15 Days to Slow the Spread” (March 16, 2020)

Economy –

The elephant in the room no one is talking about as banks wobble and crash are derivative holdings.

“The sticking point, at least at the outset of this mess, will be Credit Default Swaps (CDSes.) Those are derivative contracts. The counterparty risk for banks, trading partners, and customers engaged with Credit Suisse is now off the charts. But that may be the case with the majority of European banks, within a few days. (BNP-Parabas, HSBC, Barclays, Société Générale SA, Banco Santander, Deutsche Bank, Lloyds Banking Group PLC, ING Bank, Standard Chartered, UBS, Rabobank, Commerzbank, Svenska Handelsbanken, Bayerische Landesbank, et cetera.)

In 2002, mega-investor Warren Buffett wrote that derivatives were “financial weapons of mass destruction.” At that time, their total “notional” value (the value of the underlying assets from which the “derivatives” were “derived”) was estimated at $56 trillion. Investopedia reported in May 2022 that the derivatives bubble had reached an estimated $600 trillion according to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), and that the total is often estimated at over $1 quadrillion. No one knows for sure, because most of the trades are done privately.

As of the third quarter of 2022, according to the “Quarterly Report on Bank Trading and Derivatives Activities” of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (the federal bank regulator), a total of 1,211 insured U.S. national and state commercial banks and savings associations held derivatives, but 88.6% of these were concentrated in only four large banks: J.P. Morgan Chase ($54.3 trillion), Goldman Sachs ($51 trillion), Citibank ($46 trillion), Bank of America ($21.6 trillion), followed by Wells Fargo ($12.2 trillion). A full list is here. Unlike in 2008-09, when the big derivative concerns were mortgage-backed securities and credit default swaps, today the largest and riskiest category is interest rate products.”

https://www.unz.com/article/the-looming-quadrillion-dollar-derivatives-tsunami/

OBSERVATION – With challenging and rapidly changing economic conditions, this derivatives could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.

**
The chances of the United States falling into a recession in the next twelve months have increased to 35 percent because of the “near-term uncertainty around the economic effects of small bank stress,” Goldman Sachs warned Thursday.

After the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, which has placed pressure on additional institutions, such as Credit Suisse in recent days, Goldman Sachs’ outlook on the U.S. economy has soured amid numerous crises under the Biden administration.

The banking stress is expected to be felt by local community banks. According to Barron’s, “The stress will lead to small banks with a low-share of deposits covered by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) reducing lending by 40%, they estimated, with others cutting lending by 15%.”

OBSERVATION – More at play in this economy than simple, raw inflation.

**
The Philly Fed said that its index for current general activity rose one point to a minus 23.2, the seventh consecutive negative reading. While that is an improvement from the minus reading of 24.3 in February, any reading below zero indicates a contraction in activity from the previous month. Economists had forecast the index to come in at minus 15.8, so the reading is worse than expected.

OBSERVATION – A regional analysis that has shown to be somewhat reflective of the country in general.

**
First Republic Bank will receive $30 billion from some of the top U.S. banks in a bid to stabilize the troubled firm, the banks confirmed in a March 16 joint statement.

The banks that will provide deposits include Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, BNY-Mellon, PNC Bank, State Street, Truist, and U.S. Bank. Those deposits will be uninsured, the statement said.

OBSERVATION – More bandaids and hopium that they can sneak through this without a major collapse.

Biden / Harris watch –

House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer revealed Thursday that subpoenaed bank records indicate President Biden’s daughter-in-law Hallie was the previously unknown family recipient of Chinese cash in 2017, The Post can exclusively reveal.

President Biden, who allegedly was the “big guy” mentioned in communications about the same Chinese venture, dined at Hallie Biden’s residence last Friday during his regular weekend trip home to Delaware. It’s unclear if they discussed the looming bombshell, which Comer (R-Ky.) publicly teased Monday night on Fox News’ “Hannity.”
The records show Hallie Biden received $35,000 over two transfers in 2017 from Biden family associate John “Rob” Walker after he received $3 million on March 1, 2017, from the Chinese State Energy HK Limited, a firm affiliated with CEFC China Energy.
The first transfer to Hallie from Robinson Walker LLC was for $25,000 on March 20 of that year, Comer wrote in a Thursday morning memo to committee members.

In 2017 Hallie Biden opened up about her romance with Hunter Biden.

OBSERVATION – This is a serious accusation - potentially the fire behind all the smoke of the highly questionable biden family income stream. Were it to be just about anyone else, the walls of justice would be quickly moving in.

CW2/Domestic violence –

In 2018, California voters approved Proposition 12, which banned the sale of meats raised in confinement. At issue is the law’s requirement for Midwestern farmers to submit to inspections from California regulators before being allowed to sell pork in California. Midwestern farmers are already subject to their own state and federal regulations. This case will clarify the Interstate Commerce Clause of the U.S. Constitution. (FO)

OBSERVATION – kalifornia was using leverage against midwestern farmers because the sheer mass of state’s population caused it to be a major buyer of poultry products. Thus extending its regulations to other states to conform. Part of kalifornia’s argument has also been for the producers to sell their products elsewhere. Unfortunately those farmers are linked to food production companies that sell the products to kalifornia – leaving them with few choices. I hope the USSC rules against kalifornia just like they did when kalifornia added a clean air fee on cars purchased out of state but licensed in kalifornia. I got several hundred dollars back in the late 90’s when that scam was overturned.
But as noted – this regulatory overstepping is a classic red/blue divide that needs to be put in its place.

Strategic Activity / Deployments –

U.S. – Philippine “Balikatan” war games began this week, one month after Manila granted extensive new base access to the U.S. military. The war games will involve 3000 troops from the Philippine and U.S. military and are set to scenarios where the joint force will simulate sinking a hostile vessel in Philippine waters and then defend the island nation with HIMARS and Patriot missile air-defense systems. In a first for the annual exercise, Japan sent observers as part of a new tripartite Japan-Philippine-U.S. alliance.

North/South Korea –

North Korea says it fired a Hwasong-17 ICBM on Thursday.

Japan –

On Thursday, Japan deployed several hundred Japanese Self-Defense Force (JSDF) troops, including anti-ship and anti-air units, to a new garrison on Ishigaki island. This is the latest step in a general defensive build-up of Japan’s southern islands.

OBSERVATION – Chinese aggression in the region isn’t limited to Taiwan. China has disputed territorial claims of numerous islands in the S China Sea region.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

********

Logistics –
Chinese companies are shipping rifles, body armor to Russia, Politico reported. Customs data obtained by the newspaper reveals direct shipments of Chinese assault rifles, as well as drone shipments and body armor routed via Turkey and the UAE.

Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures rising to the mid 30’s – lower 40s with rain/snow over most of the forecast period

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting continues around Bakhmut and Avdiivka with minor gains by Russian forces. Some observers/OSINT folk suggesting that the information on those battles indicates Russia is running out of steam.

OUTLOOK –
No significant change in the outlook. Russia appears to be trying to consolidate gains while continuing to pressure Ukraine while Ukraine continues it economy of force operation to bleed Russian forces.

Reports that Wagner is committing more of its better, more experienced forces in order to press the attack in Bahkmut. Result are high losses and little gains.

Moldova/Transnistria -

The Moldovan Parliament has voted in favor of officially changing the name of the state language from “Moldovan” to Romanian.
“Moldovan” was a concept invented by the Soviets in an attempt to justify its annexation of Bessarabia (Moldova) from Romania in 1940.

OBSERVATION - Tensions continue in Moldova as the pro-Russian Transnistria region creates pushback for the Romanian majority to reach back to their roots.

Poland –

Poland set to turn over a dozen Mig – 27 fighter/bombers to Ukraine.

.
Europe / NATO General –

Macron invokes Article 49.3 of the French Constitution, which allows the government to unilaterally pass any law without a vote. Rioting broke out at the Place de la Concorde tonight as tens of thousands gathered to oppose the French government’s steps to raise the retirement age from 62 to 64.

FYI, these posts are used by myself to maintain alertness to the actions on many areas to my home and family. I try to look at trends and actions - though many appear at a high level - I’ve found them to quickly cascade down to where i live. This explains why i don’t touch on every issue or item. It is critical to be situationally alert IMHO to strategic level events and not just local.

Globalism / Great Reset –

The revolt of Dutch farmers against unreasonable nitrogen pollution regulations has succeeded, with their Farmer Citizen Movement (BBB) party winning big in regional elections to become the biggest bloc in the Senate.

OBSERVATION – This is a set back for the globalists in Belgium who thought they could roll the farmers. The farmers set forth a good case to the people and received the support.

Wuhan virus –

More buried studies/reports keep coming out as a result of FOIA and other legal efforts. Latest I’ve seen indicates the mRNA doing nasty stuff to kidneys and linked to kidney failures – known to Pfizer before the EUA was given .

Remember – if fraud can be proven, Pfizer and Moderna’s protection from lawsuits can be broken.

Economy –

First Republic Bank stock continued its free fall on Friday despite an unprecedented rescue deal announced the previous day by nearly a dozen of the nation’s biggest banks. That freefall caused major hit to the dow with a loss of 384 points

The $30 billion cash infusion initially brought some relief to shares of the San Francisco-based lender, but that investor optimism appears to be short-lived.
First Republic saw its shares plummet about 24% in the first few hours of trading on Friday, leading losses among regional banks. The stock – which hovered around $115 per share on March 8 – was trading around $26 per share on Friday, the lowest level in a decade and down about 77% from just one week ago.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/first-republic-shares-continue-slide-despite-cash-infusion

OBSERVATION – Rough week for banks, and next week doesn’t appear to be getting any better as the band aids applied this week are insufficient in the long run and only appear to have the potential to make matters worse.

**
SVB Financial, the parent of failed Silicon Valley Bank, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy one week after regulators seized control of the company’s Santa Clara-based lender.
The filing Friday in a New York bankruptcy court does not include the bank, SVB Financial’s venture capital arm SVB Capital or broker-dealer SVB Securities. The company said in a statement that it intends to use the bankruptcy process to “evaluate strategic alternatives” for SVB Capital and SVB Securities as well as other assets and investments. In its filing it listed as much as $10 billion in assets and liabilities.

Invasion of Illegals –

More illegals were caught entering the country in biden’s FY 2022 than the entire 4 years under Trump.

Biden / Harris watch –

Harris boo’d at a basketball game.

CW2/Domestic violence –

The potential arrest of Trump could trigger actions by supporters against NY Da and associated law enforcement. If Trump will not just be arrested, but handcuffed and perp-walked for maximum media effect, things could come unglued. This would cascade into confrontations by Antifa et al and could cause local real violence.

**
The Washington Senate Law & Justice Committee is scheduled to vote on House Bill 1240 next week, which seeks to establish a state definition of “assault weapon” that could be applied to most firearms, according to the Gun Owners of America (GOA).

The proposed law aims to prohibit the manufacture, distribution, and sale of assault weapons, with exemptions for licensed firearm manufacturers and dealers for sale to law enforcement agencies and armed forces branches, sale or transfer outside the state, and inheritors.

OBSERVATION – This law would ban about 90% of the guns in Washington. The state is already known for its leftist tyrrany and the next step by the Marxists is a disarmed citizenry.

**
Around 20 percent of Americans, equivalent to 66 million people, support the idea of a “national divorce” that was recently floated by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), according to a new Ipsos poll.

The idea is far more popular among Republicans than Democrats, with 25 percent of GOP voters wanting to break away and form a conservative nation, compared to just 16 percent of Democrats.

https://redstate.com/benkew/2023/03/17/new-poll-66-million-americans-support-idea-of-national-divorce-n717948

OBSERVATION – The concept of a ‘national divorce’ is not new and has been floating around in various forms since the 0bama terms. With the increasing divide between the red and blue this idea of a peaceful divorce is gaining notice. The only other alternative is the more violent separation from a hot civil war.

**
On Thursday, DeSantis announced that he had formed an alliance with the governors of AL, AK, AR, GA, ID, IA, MS, MO, MT, NE, NH, ND, OK, SD, TN, VT, WV, & WY to take a number of actions to interpose against Biden’s ESG agenda.

OBSERVATION – One item that some who are better educated on the development of civil wars is the creation of parallel govt entities to oppose the main govt. These are created to counter the perceived oppressive policies of that govt. This has been increasingly developed cooperation between red states versus the feds. Continued and growing cooperation could form the foundation of a coalition to more directly oppose the Marxist rule coming out of DC.

POLITICAL FRONT –

In a post on Truth Social, Donald Trump revealed that he expects to be arrested on Tuesday. The arrest would come as part of a trial in New York that alleges he paid hush money to a porn star ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

Trump said “the far & away leading Republican candidate & former President of the United States of America, will be arrested on Tuesday of next week. Protest, take our nation back!”

OBSERVATION – The “arrest” better be handled properly and not ham handed as may high profile ‘arrests’ by the left have been conducted in associated Trump cases. If that is the case, the call to ‘protest’ will be amplified.

Further point of confrontation is between the Secret Service and NY agents. Reportedly Secret Service will take the lead in what they will allow or will not allow and they are not going to leave him.

If the reports of Secret Service protection are correct, this should stop any kind of foolish ‘show’. But it is certain that the left will try to make as big a show out of this as possible.

Among more ‘neutral’ legal analysis, the NY DA has a nothing burger on the grill and will likely lose the case on many points. However, the goal is political show and not real justice.

China –

Xi will be meeting with Russian and Ukraine leaders this next week.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

********

ICC issued a warrant for the arrest of putin on war crimes charges. Spokesperson of Russian Foreign Ministry says warrant by ICC is void in Russia.
Putin is scheduled to be in South Africa next week, SA is signatory to the ICC, but it is unlikely they will make any effort to arrest putin.

NUCLEAR THREATS –
Russia is having problems with the test launches of its new RS-29 Sarmat ICBM. The latest test launch in February 2023 failed. The 200-ton missile carries multiple Avangard hypersonic warheads. The 220-ton RS-28 is having similar reliability problems which have delayed efforts to declare the missile operational. Some of the problems are with the firm that manufactures the missiles. There have been accusations of corruption involving theft of money and substandard work. Russia has been having similar problems with aircraft production and military procurement in general.

https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/hticbm/articles/20230317.aspx

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures rising to the mid 30’s – lower 40s with rain/snow over most of the forecast period

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting continues around Bakhmut and Avdiivka with minor gains by Russian forces.

Russia found some Iranian drones in storage and launched them overnight. Air defense reportedly shot down 11 of 16 drones. Some of the drones targeted areas in Western Ukraine near Lviv.

OUTLOOK –
No significant change to the ongoing fighting in Bakhmut and Avdiivka. Seeing Russia (Wagner) trying to conduct river crossing on the city’s eastern margin – and they are getting slaughtered.

The Russians may have started figuring out gaps in the Ukraine ADA coverage judging from the much lowered percentage of Iranian drones shot down over night. No firm evidence as why, though some are thinking Russia is getting better at using EW to blind radar warning networks as well as identifying sectors with weaker defenses. Also a change in targeting potentially being developed with targets closer to the actual combat zones rather than spread all across the country. Exception to this were the targeting of western Ukraine – most likely associated with the effort to disrupt supplies from entering the country from Poland.

Europe / NATO General –

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Friday that his government would move forward with ratifying Finland’s NATO application, paving the way for the country to join the military bloc ahead of Sweden.

Commenting on Turkey’s willingness to consider ratifying Sweden’s accession to NATO, Erdogan said it would “depend on the solid steps Sweden will take.”
Explaining the difference between the Nordic countries from Ankara’s viewpoint, Erdogan claimed that Sweden had “embraced terrorism,” and cited demonstrations by supporters of Kurdish militants on the streets of Stockholm. “Such demonstrations do not take place in Finland,” he said. “For that reason we had to consider (Finland) separately from Sweden.”

OBSERVATION – Some expect Turkey to eventually give in to Sweden’s application as it receives pushback from the EU and faces economic retribution in a particularly sensitive election period.

Armenia/Azerbaijan –

Conflict between Armenia-Azerbaijan will much likely derail by the end of this month or mid-April, preparations ongoing by both sides.

OBSERVATION – I’ve noted some increasing aggressiveness by Azerbaijan over the past few months and with Russia being fully occupied in Ukraine, the Azeri’s look to take advantage and settle some more scores with the Armenians. This could start a regional conflict as Iran has sided with the Armenians over Azeri’s and has almost come to war with them in the past months. Iran considers the Azeri’s being too “jew friendly” and worthy of a smack down on that alone.

This week may prove to be one of the most significant and serious of all our lifetimes. I urge all to check their preparedness supplies of all categories.

Globalism / Great Reset –

A series of climate bills now before the Oregon legislature could devastate rural communities and further fuel inflation, according to detractors.
The bills would phase out petroleum-based diesel fuel, levy sweeping new taxes on tires and off-road agriculture equipment, and place a moratorium on new and existing dairy and poultry farms, the majority of which are family owned and operated.

https://redwave.press/farm-moratorium-democrats-are-intentionally-destroying-our-food-supply-over-climate-change/

OBSERVATION – Complacent useful fools at all levels of govt working to implement the WEF’s global assault on food production (all in the name of global warming). Here is just another variant of it. Remember, in the WEF’s eyes we don’t need the food production because they plan on culling a huge percentage of the global population.

Economy –

Wall Street Journal – Economists are now estimating that 186 US banks may be prone to the same risks as Silicon Valley Bank. This number is likely higher as the pressures that regional banks are facing are ramping up. This number comes from a recent economic study published on March 13.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told the US Senate on Thursday that not all uninsured deposits would be protected in future bank failures, ONLY those banks that pose systemic risks.
Medium-sized banks now asking for two year protection as well.

OBSERVATION – The potential for continued damage to the banking industry continues to be high.

CW2/Domestic violence –

Calls have gone out on Saturday for President Trump to be held without bail because they say he is a danger to the country over his call for supporters to protest should he be arrested. The liberals are saying this is an incitement to another January 6 and therefore Trump should be kept behind bars where he could not post calls for protests on social media.

OBSERVATION – Any attempt to perp walk Trump or to be held without bail may very likely result in violence of some sort. As I note under Political Front – the left essentially craves some event to justify dropping the hammer on the right. Trump (and constitution supporters in general) will not receive the same treatment BLM/Antifa have received. These are dangerous times – and time to stock up on some more ammo – but seeking to keep my ammo dry and ready.

POLITICAL FRONT –

My overall observation regarding the NY DA and Trump. Trump is situationally aware (in most conditions) and this is clearly one of them. When the NY DA’s plans on indictment were leaked out, Trump wasted no time seizing the advantage and put the DA on notice – sucking the oxygen out of the left’s desire for a made-for-tv perp march and docudrama. His post trigger a massive pushback by heavy weight lefty attorneys and many republicans. His preemptive announcement has placed the spotlight on a very problematical DA and we’ll see if he’ll fish or cut bait.

What is disturbing is the broad silence from the eGOP – their willingness to accept the two-tiered, banana republic form of ‘justice’ via silence is more than disturbing. This is nothing but capitulation to the tyrannical left under the adage of “the enemy of my enemy is my friend”. This inaction tells me that they’ve made an under the table agreement not to rock the boat as long as they can continue to get their perks from office. They forget the story of the frog and the scorpion.

Dems and eGOP don’t realize that they have pushed the right even closer to a very strong response – or perhaps that is what they desire – I can’t read their dark hearts. What I do realize is that the left desires an event that they can ‘justify’ martial law and heavy handed crackdowns on regime opponents. More on this under CW2.

**
Dershowitz, Harvard Law professor emeritus, cannot fathom the concocting of this case against Trump.
“I taught law for 50 years, I have no idea how you can combine a federal statute about campaign contributions with a state misdemeanor statute about other things and come up” with something to charge Trump with, Dershowitz told host Tom Basile.
“You know, it’s 1 and 1 equal 11 here — not 1 and 1 equals 2. It’s just wrong.”
The timing is also suspect, Dershowitz noted, as allegations of influence peddling against the Biden family has reached a crescendo.

“This purely, purely political,” Dershowitz said. “Look, the attorney general of New York ran on a campaign to get Trump; Bragg essentially the same thing. This is 100% political.
“There is no basis for this prosecution; but with the judiciary in New York, you never know. The courts could uphold it.”
Efforts to “get Trump” have effectively tossed the ethics of prosecution out the window, Dershowitz warned. “That’s the problem,” he said. “The problem is every part of the judicial system has become politicized: Get Trump. This get Trump business idea, about which I wrote this book, ‘Get Trump,’ has permeated every aspect of our legal system.
“Normally a person has a guarantee at least that the courts will free him. Here there’s no assurance that the courts of New York will. It may have to go to the United States Supreme Court.”
This is an age-old example of “show me the man and I will find the crime,” according to Dershowitz.

https://www.newsmax.com/newsmax-tv/alan-dershowitz-indictment-donald-trump/2023/03/18/id/1112627/

OBSERVATION – Though liberal Dershowitz is honest in his assessment – as he has on numerous occasions to the chagrin of the progressive left. Like the other made-up scandals they’ve attacked Trump over for the past nearly 8 years, short a corrupt judge, this will not stick either and the backlash will propel Trump even higher.
NOTE - See also CW2 for other components of this developing situation.

China –

Xi has come out of China and is acting as the world’s superpower – a position abdicated by biden – as he is traveling to many countries, Russia and Ukraine in the forefront, to leverage China’s newly found leadership into global conditions that favor it and pushes down the US.

Russia better not feel too good about their new ‘friend’ China either - Russia will soon be owned by China.

North/South Korea –

NK fired a short ranged missile overnight.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

********

Kremlin: The mission of the drones in the Black Sea is not peaceful and their operators are somehow involved in the conflict.

**
Russian President Vladimir Putin conducted a Visit to the Occupied-Territory of Crimea today for the 9-Year-Anniversary of the “Treaty on the Admission of the Republic of Crimea to the Russian Federation”, which subsequently Annexed the Crimean Territory from Ukraine.

Putin also visited the occupied Ukrainian city of Mariupol, a defiant gesture after an international court issued a warrant for his arrest.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures rising to the mid 30’s – lower 40s with rain/snow over most of the forecast period

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting continues around Bakhmut and Avdiivka with minor gains by Russian forces. Ground attacks by Russia seem to be stalling in these area as well as all across the front lines in the east.

OUTLOOK –
No significant change to the ongoing fighting in Bakhmut and Avdiivka. Seem like Russia is either executing a tactical pause or they are running out of steam. Estimates continue to have the Russian / Ukraine losses at 3:1. Increased hurt to Ukraine, but the Russian losses are in their better quality units – units that will be hard to replace with equally trained troops.

Great deal of RUMINT that mobilized Russian forces are refusing to fight. I’ve seen these reports since almost day 1 of the invasion. Haven’t seen full impact on the action but may be why general Russian forces are almost constantly on the losing end of the stick. Probably a lot of propaganda involved against Russia.

With Poland and Slovakia(?) looking to deliver a couple dozen Mig-29 multirole jets, the strategic/tactical balance may soon shift again toward Ukraine. In one of the epic failures by Russia in this war, it has failed to establish air superiority over Ukraine. Russian air craft fear to go into challenged airspace – sticking close to Russian controlled areas. Russian bombers are afraid to get any where near Ukraine and launch cruise missiles from a considerable distance away. Ukraine continues to fly CAS against Russian targets. With these additional jets, Ukraine could potentially start exerting air superiority over Russia. Time will tell on how effective the jet infusion will be to the war, but given Ukrainian ingenuity and resolve displayed so far I see a lot of unpleasantness for Russia.

Syria -

Arab leaders are reportedly offering Syrian President Bashar al-Assad a deal that includes billions of dollars for reconstruction efforts and a pledge to lobby the west to lift sanctions in exchange for “[asking] Iran to stop expanding its footprint in the nation,” according to Arab and European officials that spoke with the Wall Street Journal.

OBSERVATION – The arab world is increasingly concerned about Iran establishing greater control in the region. Assad only cares about crushing the rebellion and will accept what ever Iran offers – blind to Iran’s overarching plans for Israel and eventually the rest of the region.

Running late today, sorry

Wuhan virus –

Hat tip TIK - - “A study published in The Lancet found “no clinical benefit” from the use of remdesivir in hospitalized patients.”
“Furthermore, hospitals receive an upcharge of 20% on the entire hospital bill when remdesivir is used.”
(From the article):” John Beaudoin is calling for a criminal investigation into remdesivir, citing data that it may have killed 100,000 people in the U.S.”
“Beaudoin received all the death certificates in Massachusetts from 2015 to 2022, finding 1,840 excess deaths from acute renal failure from Jan. 1, 2021, to Nov. 30, 2022, which he believes may be due to remdesivir. A study published in The Lancet found “no clinical benefit” from the use of remdesivir in hospitalized patients.”
“The U.S. government pays hospitals a 20% upcharge on the entire hospital bill when remdesivir is used.”
“The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) authorized the experimental antiviral drug remdesivir, brand name Veklury, for emergency use against COVID-19 in May 2020.” “By October 2020, it had received full approval. It remains a primary treatment for COVID-19 in hospitals, despite research showing it lacks effectiveness and can cause high rates of organ failure.”

OBSERVATION – “Procedure” mandating remdesvir is the likely cause of many wuhan deaths.

Economy –

The U.S. Federal Reserve on Sunday said it had joined with the Bank of Canada, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, and Swiss National Bank in a coordinated action to enhance the provision of liquidity through the standing U.S. dollar swap line arrangements.
The move came on the heels of a deal brokered by Swiss authorities to have UBS buy rival Swiss bank Credit Suisse to prevent its disorderly collapse and signals the depth of concern central bankers have over the recent turmoil in the financial system on both sides of the Atlantic.
“To improve the swap lines’ effectiveness in providing U.S. dollar funding, the central banks currently offering U.S. dollar operations have agreed to increase the frequency of seven-day maturity operations from weekly to daily,” the Fed said in a statement issued alongside announcements from the other five central banks.

Operations will commence on Monday and will continue at least through the end of April, the Fed said.
Swap lines, according to the The Balance, are arrangements between two central banks to have currency available for each country’s member banks.
“These agreements stabilize markets when markets become stressed,” according to the financial website. “They reassure banks that there won’t be a run on a specific currency that they won’t be able to meet. Swap lines keep plenty of currency available during times of stress.”

https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/federal-reserve-central-banks/2023/03/19/id/1112699/

Related - UBS Group will acquire rival Credit Suisse for 3 billion Swiss Francs ($3.23 billion) the companies said on Sunday.
Under the terms of the all-share deal, Credit Suisse shareholders will receive 1 UBS share for every 22.48 Credit Suisse shares held for a total consideration of 3 billion francs. ($1 = 0.9280 Swiss francs)
The deal includes 100 billion Swiss francs ($108 billion) in liquidity assistance for UBS and Credit Suisse from the Swiss central bank. A price wasn’t given.

OBSERVATION – Not out of the woods yet.

**
In an interview, Yellen let the cat out of the bag over the potential weaponization of the banking bailouts

Q - Will the deposits in every community bank in Oklahoma, regardless of their size, be fully insured now? Are they fully covered, every bank, every community bank in Oklahoma, regardless of the size of the deposit? Will they get the same treatment that SVBP [Silicon Valley Bank] just got or Signature Bank just got?

Please look very closely at Yellen’s terrifying answer:

A bank only gets that treatment if a majority of the FDIC board, a super majority of the Fed board and I, in consultation with the president, determine that the failure to protect uninsured depositors, would create systemic risk and significant economic and financial consequences.

In other words, if the FDIC likes your bank, the depositors are insured. If not, the depositors are not insured over $250,000, which means what?

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2023/03/17/nolte-janet-yellen-admits-government-choosing-bank-bailout-winners-losers/

OBSERVATION – During the crash of the auto industry, 0bama picked and chose which dealerships were to close or remain open. Most cases, dealerships owned by conservatives were ordered closed.

CW2/Domestic violence –

Stonestown Mall is ground zero for juvenile violence and chaos over the weekend. Videos of mobs savagely beating individuals.

**
Police are responding to Numerous reports of unmanageable crowds of Spring Breakers in Miami Beach, which have resulted in altercations and instances of individuals jumping on vehicles. Miami Beach Orders midnight curfew and State Of Emergency over shootings that left 2 people dead And ‘unruly’ spring break crowds.

OBSERVATION – Civility is gone in society – particularly among the youth.

**
NYC is barricading the municipal court building Trump is expected to be arraigned at tomorrow. Police are expecting considerable violence to break out between pro-and anti Trump elements. FL Gov DeSantes has capitulated to the swamp and will not interfer with what he calls a political indictment and will allow NY law enforcement to execute the arrest warrant in Florida with out a hitch.

Domestic / International Terror (modified)-

Seattle-Tacoma International Airport underwent a temporary closure due to a hazardous package left unattended on the ticketing level. Multiple specialized units, including the bomb squad, were immediately mobilized to respond to the situation. As a precaution, a bomb disposal robot was utilized to navigate the area, and a controlled explosion was carried out.

OBSERVATION – I’ve seen no updates this yet.

North/South Korea –

The North Korean newspaper Rodong Sinmun says 800,000 students and workers signed up to fight the U.S. on Friday, just one day after North Korea fired a ballistic missile into the sea between South Korea and Japan. The total number included many North Koreans who sought to re-enlist, the paper noted.

OBSERVATION – A lot of this is simple propaganda. NK doesn’t have the structure in its current military to absorbe 800K on short notice – short of all out war.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

********
Chinese President Xi arrived in Moscow to meet with the Russian President Putin. Chinese President Xi Jinping is welcomed by…. the Deputy Prime Minister Chernyshenko. He is the minister for tourism, sport, culture and communication.

They met for about 4 hours today.

Putin didn’t want to be in a predetermined place outside due to fear of assassination.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures rising to the mid 30’s – lower 40s with rain/snow over most of the forecast period

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting continues around Bakhmut and Avdiivka with minor gains by Russian forces. Ukrainian forces stabilizing the northern and southern flanks – pushing Russian forces back in some instances.
Attacks in the Avdiivka area were large and better supported than Bakhmut today – a reversal from the recent trend. Russian forces made gains north of Avdiivka.

Zaporizhizhia Front ———
Ukraine’s military conducted limited probing attacks along Russia’s lines in Zaporizhzhya Oblast in southern Ukraine over the weekend. Russian media said the Ukrainian armored attacks were repelled with anti-tank guided missiles and artillery. Ukrainian losses were reportedly heavy.

OUTLOOK –
It appears Russia may be pressing Avdiivka as the battle wains around Bahkmut. Have to see just how long this change occurs and if there will be any success.

Otherwise, just more of the same for the immediate future.

Poland –

“If today Ukraine does not defend its independence and sovereignty, we will be forced to enter into a conflict with Russia, as the basic principles on which our civilization is built will be in danger,” - the ambassador of Poland in France.

Armenia/Azerbaijan –

Armenia claiming that Azerbaijan is building up forces along the entire line of contact in Nagorno-Karabakh, especially in the direction of Vardenis.

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