Economy –
Aftershocks continue to reverberate globally following the SVB crash. Moody’s cut the outlook on entire U.S. banking system to negative from stable, citing a “rapidly deteriorating operating environment.” Moody’s placed First Republic Bank (FRC), Zions (ZION), Western Alliance (WAL), Comerica (CMA), UMB Financial (UMBF) and Intrust Financial on review, meaning the banks are now perceived as more risky investments by lenders.
Finger pointing on the cause of the mismanagement range from SVB spending all its time on organizing and supporting woke agenda, to bipartisan regulatory reforms, to Trump. I don’t expect to learn the full cause because of the PR maelstrom going on.
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The government said Tuesday that prices increased 0.4% last month, just below January’s 0.5% rise. Yet excluding volatile food and energy costs, so-called core prices rose 0.5% in February, slightly above January’s 0.4% gain. The Fed pays particular attention to the core measure as a gauge of underlying inflation pressures.
When measured against prices a year ago, inflation has been easing for eight months. In February, consumer prices climbed 6% from 12 months earlier, down from January’s 6.4% year-over-year increase and well below a recent peak of 9.1% in June. Yet it remains far above the Fed’s 2% annual inflation target. Core prices in February rose 5.5% from 12 months ago, down slightly from 5.6% in January.
OBSERVATION – With rising energy prices forecast for the coming months and still questionable food price stability, the Fed is not out of the woods yet. It is expected that the Fed will raise the rate a quarter of a point but hold back steeper rises because of the banking turmoil its rapid raising of rates has created.
Invasion of Illegals –
Texas is in the process of passing a law that makes illegal entry into Texas a felony and authorizes local law enforcement to arrest and even direct illegals back across the border. Included is the deputization of citizens. Democrats heads are exploding at the ramifications of the bill which could go a long way to stop the flood of illegals into the state.
Biden / Harris watch –
“Transgender kids is a really harder thing,” he began. “What’s going on in Florida is, as my mother would say, close to sinful. I mean it’s terrible what they’re doing.”
CW2/Domestic violence –
Riot police confronted Antifa rioters at UC Davis overnight who showed up to disrupt a TPUSA talk by Charlie Kirk. Antifa vandalized buildings and threatened attendees. The riot was preceded by an inflammatory address by the university chancellor as well as an out right lie tweeted by an associate opinion editor for the Sac Bee.
TPUSA’s Rebecca Brannon tweeted: “Antifa and far leftists pepper spray and hit UC Davis student with umbrellas. “
OBSERVATION – I’ve noted that Antifa seems to be spoiling more and more for a fight. The UCD protest is the latest. However, I’m also noting that a more ‘formal’ core Antifa cell is growing in the Sacramento area. Reference to last week where Antifa formed up near the capitol to protest a anti-trans event featuring those who transitioned back to their biological gender. At that event, several independent journalists were assaulted. Just a few years ago when I was still working in Sac, Antifa/BLM were not as aggressive. BLM caused more problems and most Antifa came in from the Bay Area. Looks like more of the turnout was local based Antifa.
Warning – Antifa is becoming more aggressive and violent - perhaps looking to provoke an event that they can springboard for a national level protest. Protests like UCD serve to promote recruitment of like minded thugs and miscreants.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Russia is rapidly losing its capability to sustain offensive operations in these fronts due to the huge resource drain Bahkmut has created. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
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Putin is meeting with Assad today. See Syria below.
Russian aircraft collided with U.S. drone over Black Sea. No injuries reported. Per US EUCOM, “At approximately 7:03 AM CET, a Russian Su-27 aircraft struck the propeller an MQ-9, causing U.S. forces to have to bring the MQ-9 down in international waters. Several times before the collision, the Su-27s dumped fuel on and flew in front of the MQ-9 in a reckless, environmentally unsound and unprofessional manner.”
Logistics –
Russia is reportedly reaching a critical point in their artillery supply. Intel sources note that they are being forced to use very old ammo – where the failure to explode rate is over 50%. The effects of the shell shortage are clearly visible on the front lines - the intensity of artillery fire by the Russian army has declined markedly. It is now firing about 10,000 rounds a day, down from about 20,000 rounds late last year and up to 30,000 rounds a day in the summer, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing military analysts.
NOTE – Russian strategy in Ukraine relies heavily on artillery laying down a curtain of steel behind which troops follow. The inability to suppress Ukrainian positions is leading to high causalities.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Russian media outlet Verstka reports Russian military enlistment offices starting new mobilization campaign for war in Ukraine. Eligible men will be summoned to enlistment offices to “update personal data” and will be offered to go to Ukraine voluntarily.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures rising to the mid 30’s – lower 40s with rain/snow over most of the forecast period
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting continues around Bakhmut and Avdiivka. Warm, wet weather slowing operations on both sides. Ukrainian counter attacks are managing to keep supply lines to Bakhmut open but at a heavy cost to Ukraine forces.
OUTLOOK –
Nothing on my screen to indicate any significant changes to the tactical situation in eastern Ukraine. It appears that the political decision to continue holding Bahkmut is steadfast and on a strategic level - stripping Russia of key combat units they will need when the Ukraine offensive hits. The economy of force mobile defense Ukraine has been able to maintain is allowing it to organize and equip forces for a later spring offensive.
Just where that offensive will be focused is not evident, though I think the direct south assault from Zaporizhizhia towards Crimea is a prime candidate. A second would be the Kreminna-Svatove line. Any inklings now put out by Ukraine is nothing more than propaganda and misdirection.
Russia’s intercept of the US drone may result in fighter escorts of drone recce aircraft in the future. The Reaper drone was a minor collection platform. However, the US has been flying a Global Hawk drone almost daily since the start on the war in the same general region of the Black Sea. Its high altitude may deter Russian intercept, but an attempted take down of that asset may escalate the situation in the air.
Belarus -
Russian forces noted rotating in/out of training.
No offensive postures/deployments noted.
Syria -
The Kremlin confirmed Tuesday that Putin will meet with Assad on Wednesday — the anniversary of the conflict — in a statement carried by Russia’s state news agency Tass.
According to the statement, “further development of Russian-Syrian cooperation in the political, trade, economic and humanitarian spheres, as well as the prospects for a comprehensive settlement of the situation in and around Syria,” will be on the agenda.
OBSERVATION – Assad needs Russian support to maintain his efforts to regain control of the northern portions of Syria. Russia can no longer guarantee that same level of support due to Ukraine. Russian / Israeli friction of late is not helping matters either as Israel is able to strike Hezbollah / Iranian targets in Syria at will. Should Russia try to engage IAF aircraft, they will soon find their launchers a smoldering wreck and more troops killed. Russia is having challenges maintaining its own information sphere on Ukraine war losses already
Central / South America General-
Argentina’s inflation rate has soared past 100% for the first time since the end of hyperinflation in the early 90s. Inflation hit 102.5% in February, the country’s statistics agency said, meaning the price of many consumer goods has more than doubled since 2022.
OBSERVATION – Inflation and associated economic woes plague central/south America. It is one of the drivers of illegals northward to the US.
Globalism / Great Reset –
See Credit Suisse in Economy below
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See New York Quarantine lawsuit in Wuhan below
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The Department of Energy is conducting this gas stove grab through a rule that would impose extreme energy performance standards on residential cooktops. The department’s proposed rule sets requirements for gas cooktops at the maximum technologically feasible or “max-tech” level. Based on the Department of Energy’s own analysis, gas cooktops at the max-tech level represent just 4% of current market share and exclude all conventional free-stand ranges.
Any rule that causes 96% of the products available today to be eliminated from the market is an extreme regulation. In fact, it is essentially an outright ban on gas stoves
OBSERVATION – Been following this for a while. Thwarted by backlash for a complete ban of gas stoves, they are now coming at it from a regulatory level – and achieving a 96% ban. I don’t remember the American people clammoring for such action, but this is just continuing evidence that the US is subordinate to the WEF and its goals.
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More related energy control grabs – can also link to Economy below
“The Biden administration is strengthening the ‘Good Neighbor’ rule, to cut pollution from power plants and factories in the West and Midwest that wafts east.”
According to our long-suffering environmental journalist at the NY Times, Coral Davenport: “The Biden administration on Wednesday finalized a rule forcing factories and power plants in 23 Western and Midwestern states to sharply cut smog-causing pollution that is released from their smokestacks and fouls the air in Eastern states.”
“Known as the “good neighbor” rule, the new regulation strengthens and expands an earlier interstate air pollution standard that was enacted during the Obama administration. While that rule directed power plants to clean up their emissions, the revised rule enforces similar controls on mills, factories and other industrial facilities.”
“The good neighbor rule holds that states should take measures to ensure that their pollution doesn’t affect downwind states. It directs coal-burning power plants and industrial facilities such as iron, steel, cement and concrete manufacturers in the Western and Midwestern states to reduce their emissions of nitrogen dioxide, a pollutant that causes smog and is linked to asthma, lung disease and premature death.”
“Soot and exhaust belched from those industrial facilities is carried by prevailing winds toward Eastern states, causing high levels of pollution in states with fewer industries.”
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/03/16/e-p-a-tells-states-clean-up-your-smokestacks/
OBSERVATION – Essentially EPA is grabbing more authority to regulate and change America’s primary energy production – and to force the politically motivated shift away from fossil fuels in both power production and industry towards the unicorn and rainbows of ‘green energy’. Meanwhile, they turn a blind eye to the disaster at East Palistine Ohio.
Wuhan virus –
Late in the day on Monday March 13, 2023, just hours before the deadline, New York Attorney General, Letitia James, filed an appeal to try to overturn our successful lawsuit that struck down Governor Hochul’s unconstitutional “Isolation and Quarantine Procedures” regulation.
The case, Borrello v. Hochul, which we won last July, was brought against the Governor and her Department of Health, on behalf of a group of NYS Legislators, Senator George Borrello, Assemblyman Chris Tague, Assemblyman (now Congressman) Mike Lawler, together with our citizens’ group, Uniting NYS.
The main premise of the case was breach of Separation of Powers – meaning the Governor and her Department of Health did not have the authority to make their dystopian “Isolation and Quarantine Procedures” regulation.
The Regulation:
For anyone unfamiliar with this regulation, it allowed the Department of Health to pick and choose which New Yorkers they could lock up or lock down, with no proof that you were ever even exposed to, let alone actually sick with, a communicable disease. They could have locked you down in your home, or they could have removed you from your home and forced you to quarantine in a facility of their choosing.
There was no time restriction, so you could have been quarantined for however long they required – days, weeks, months. There was no age restriction, so they could have done this to you, to your child, to your grandchild, etc. In the true fashion of a totalitarian regime, they could have told you what you could and could not do while in quarantine. They literally could have controlled your every move.
The regulation allowed them to use law enforcement to enforce their orders of isolation or quarantine, which means you could have received a knock at the door from your local police or sheriff telling you that you had to go with them… by order of the Health Department.
Furthermore, the regulation had no procedure by which you could be released from quarantine, no way for you to try to negotiate your way out. And it was not COVID19 specific. There was a laundry list of “communicable diseases” that could have triggered this nightmare loss of freedom – diseases such as Lyme, Toxic Shock Syndrome, COVID19 and so many others.
https://brownstone.org/articles/governor-hochul-files-appeal-in-quarantine-camp-lawsuit/
OBSERVATION – Article cited at length. This also put wuhan infected into nursing homes – killing untold seniors already suffering from ailments. This also shows the extreme medical tyranny that the powers that be want to maintain over the population – and just how willing the sheeple are to bow to any edict. Should the WHO get it way – similar edicts may come into effect globally – even here in the USA as a whole.
Economy –
More nasty facts are coming out about SVB and its activities that certainly contributed to its failure. SVB execs may have failed to hedge against interest rate risk, they did signal $73.45 million in virtue donating to Black Lives Matter and related entities, according to a database maintained by the Claremont Institute which lists nearly $83 billion in donations to the Marxist organization.
ALSO – CA gov Newscum likely violated the law in pushing for a bail out of SVB, given that three of his wineries accounts were held in the bank as well as a lot of other intermingling of interests. Newsom also didn’t mention his wife Jennifer Siebel’s professional ties to the bank. In 2021, Silicon Valley Bank gave $100,000 to the charity founded by Siebel, the California Partners Project, at the request of Newsom. John China, president of SVB Capital and responsible for SVB’s funds management, is himself a founding member of the California Partners Project’s board of directors.
OBSERVATION – Follow the money, SVB now appears to be up to its eyebrow in questionable actions and accounting.
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Tyson Foods has announced plans to lay off nearly 1,700 employees. Tyson will be closing two chicken plants in May, one in Arkansas and one in Virginia.
In a statement, Tyson said it will be closing down the facilities and focusing on optimizing operations by utilizing full capacity at existing plants.
OBSERVATION – This will not help poultry prices in near or long term.
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Yesterday, chaos increased with Credit Suisse shares dropped by as much as 30.8%, leading a 7% fall in the European banking index, while five-year credit default swaps (CDS) for the flagship Swiss bank hit a new record high, reviving fears of a broader threat to the financial system. Switzerland is under pressure from at least one major government to intervene quickly on Credit Suisse, a source familiar with the situation told Reuters, after the Swiss bank led a rout of European bank stocks on Wednesday.
Later last night, Credit Suisse announces $53.7 billion loan from Swiss central bank. Before that it was estimated that Credit Suisse had a probability of default of 47%.
OBSERVATION – The combination of a too fast rising Fed (and other govt) lending rates combined with poor management and shakey economic conditions left over from the wuhan plandemic will lead to more of these banks coming to the edge and some falling over in the coming months. These actions, like those for SVB, are only wallpaper over much broader banking problems. Please note – the WEF will leverage these crises as part of their economic ‘reset’. You don’t ‘reset’ unless the system gets completely broken.
RELATED - European Central Bank raised interest rates by 0.50% to 3.50% overnight.
This is doing the same to European banks as the fed increases to US banks. More evidence of potentially maneuvering for a global take down?
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Fears of further meltdowns of smaller, regional banks like SVB has caused a lot of money transfers by individuals/companies out of such banks and into the bigger ones like BoA and Chase.
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It is estimated that there is $620 billion unrealized potential loss remaining in the banking system – due largely to the rapid prime rate increases and corresponding jump in short term bonds versus long term bonds (which these banks invested heavily in). This is placing the Fed between a rock and a hard place. Though slightly lower, inflation is still far above the fed’s goals. However to continue increasing the rate will lead to more stress on the banking system. To back off rate increase, the fed sees the potential of inflation taking off again. This potential bomb was quietly acknowledged by the Federal Reserve’s emergency loan program that may have to inject as much as $2 trillion of funds into the US banking system and ease the liquidity crunch, according to JPMorgan Chase
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USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack announced that $3 billion in grants had been requested across 47 states to build or expand domestic fertilizer production facilities. The USDA recently distributed $29 million to projects that can ramp up fertilizer production in 2023 or 2024.
OBSERVATION – It will take years and a maze of regulations to navigate through before this increased production actually hits the farm. There are not too many facilities that can ramp up short term production.
China –
According to Taiwanese authorities, defense spending is set to focus on a “total blockade” scenario by China. This is one of the most likely scenarios that China will use to force Taiwan to capitulate to its demands. It is the least risky to China but could force a confrontation sooner with the US and other nations that will force the blockaide to supply Taiwan.
North/South Korea –
A North Korean missile was launched at a high angle and flew for about 1,000 km and reached an altitude of roughly 6,000km before splashing into the Sea of Japan, outside the Japanese Economic Exclusion Zone.
With just over an hour of flight time, definitely within ICBM territory, Hwasong-15 or Hwasong-17 perhaps.
OBSERVATION – These high angle flight tests serve to help test reentry vehicles for eventual warheads. Because NK doesn’t have the assets to receive telemetry from the rocket, high angle shots are done. In contrast, US Minutemen ICBS are launched from the US and into US controlled areas of the Pacific.
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Been noted for most of a year now, rumblings of a NK nuclear test are increasing given the current rhetoric from NK towards the south and US joint exercises. I expect such a test to be of a miniaturized warhead capable of being placed on their Hwasong-15 or Hwasong-17 ICBM or the rumored solid fuel ICBM under development.
Japan –
The Japanese Prime Minister has called an Emergency National Security Meeting following the ICBM launch by North Korea.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Russia is rapidly losing its capability to sustain offensive operations in these fronts due to the huge resource drain Bahkmut has created. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
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It is being estimated that Russia has managed to increase the amount of territory it controls in Ukraine by 0.039% in February—the equivalent of around 233.94 sq km (90.3 sq mi). This at the cost of about 30,000 Russian lives.
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US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu following drone incident. This is the second time the two have spoken since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. -FOX
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The Pentagon has released footage of what it says is a Russian aircraft conducting an unsafe intercept of a US Air Force surveillance drone in international airspace over the Black Sea.
The 42-second video shows a Russian Su-27 approaching the back of the MQ-9 drone and beginning to release fuel as it passes, the Pentagon said.
The US military said it ditched the MQ-9 Reaper in the sea Tuesday after the Russian fighter jet poured fuel on the unmanned aerial vehicle and then struck its propeller.
Economic Impact –
Putin urged Russia’s billionaires and business elite to invest in new technology, production facilities and enterprises to help Russia overcome what he said were Western attempts to destroy its economy. Putin told the business leaders that Russia was facing a “sanctions war” but was swiftly reorienting its economy towards countries that had not imposed sanctions on Russia, and thanked them for working to help the Russian state.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures rising to the mid 30’s – lower 40s with rain/snow over most of the forecast period
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting continues around Bakhmut and Avdiivka with minor gains by Russian forces. Heavy propaganda war by both sides over the significance of the fight for Bakhmut.
Russian Territory –
A fire tore through offices of the security services in a southern region of Russia bordering Ukraine, the emergency services said, according to Russian news agencies.
Images circulating on social media showed a massive blaze tearing through a building in a built-up urban area with a huge plume of black smoke billowing over the fire.
NOTE – Suspicious fires have been reported at significant facilities across Russia. Uncertain if related to espionage but this one definitely fits the bill for such.
OUTLOOK –
Russia is running out of time to achieve its goal of capturing Donbas. Since the start of its offensive, approximately 233.94 sq km (90.3 sq mi) of Ukraine territory has been seized – all at heavy losses in men and material. Russian forces are rapidly finding itself in a very weak position that Ukraine can exploit later in the spring. It will have to decide if continuing the fight for Bahkmut are worth the potential disaster a Ukrainian offensive can cause to overstretched and weakened forces.
US-RUSSIA ruffle over the drone downing may escalate if the US resumes flights in the near future. Further escalation if Turkey allows US naval forces into the Black Sea to recover the downed drone. Russian naval operations are already reported at the crash site, so it is unlikely that the US will get elements there soon enough to do any good, but may get forces there for future efforts – i.e. the next time Russia downs a drone or any related aircraft.
In order to have forces to blunt the Ukrainian offensive, Russia needs to push a new mobilization now as it takes multiple months of training to bring conscripts up to speed on equipment and organize units for battle. Some of the conscripts from last summer’s mobilization are getting training in Belarus, but Russia is behind the power curve to man-up for Ukraine’s turn.
Right now Russia’s defensive plans are to protect Crimea at all costs while trying to fix Ukrainian units in the east. Ukraine OTOH has a lot of options with the concentrated application of new equipment and trained soldiers in a combined arms strike anywhere along the front.
Finally, rumors of increased naval activity by Russian cruise missile capable ships deploying out into the Black Sea. I don’t think Russia has rebuilt the stock pile of missiles enough yet for a strike so soon after the last. Intervals have grown from less than a week to now nearly a month between barrages.
Poland –
Polish authorities have broken up a Russian espionage network and arrested a number of those involved who were planning sabotage operations inside the country. Minister of National Defense Mariusz Blaszczak described the effort as a “great success” and said additional details would be released later today.
OBSERVATION - These operations were likely directed to interrupting the supply lines into Ukraine from Poland.
Finnish president Sauli Niinisto will travel on Friday to Turkey to meet Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in a bid to seal the Finish application to join NATO. Ankara has signaled that it is ready to approve Finland’s bid to join NATO after months of hold ups from Erdogan, who is seeking reelection this year.
OBSERVATION - Economics may be starting to drive Erdogan’s move to ok Finland (and eventually Sweden) as economic conditions in Turkey – especially following the earthquakes – are in a tailspin and he can’t afford losing NATO and EU related trade.
Iran –
The Chinese Ministry of Defense this morning announced joint naval drills with Russia and Iran in the Gulf of Oman. The drills start today and run through 19 March.
OBSERVATION – More critical to Iran, but force projection by China. The Gulf of Oman is the key access point to the Persian Gulf and oil traffic. Exercise is more symbolic than tactical at this stage.
Syria -
Syria recognizes the self proclaimed ‘new borders’ of Russia which include Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzia regions ‘based on historical facts’, says Syrian President Al-Assad.
OBSERVATION – Assad in his meeting with putin yesterday had little to offer except to cheerlead.
Turkey -
“Turkey is ready to let US warships pass through the Bosphorus, because of the “incident” with the MQ-9 and Su-27” - Turkish Defense Minister
OBSERVATION - This in the context of ships to recover the remains of the drone Russia knocked down a couple days ago.
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See NATO/Europe above on Finland and Sweden admittance to NATO above