Economy –
Before I delve into the chaos that has hit the banking world, I want to remind you of what an AI bot predicted weeks ago –
THE ECONOMY WILL CRASH ON MARCH 15th.
Keep this in mind as trends and raw data crunching are what these ‘bots were designed for.
To be fair, the ChatGPT’s rogue, jailbroken alter ego, DAN, made the prediction. This prediction comes just days after its last market projection: a Feb. 15 stock crash.
According to the chatbot, inflation, declining consumer spending and international tensions are behind its March 15 crash prediction.
**
Financial regulators have closed Silicon Valley Bank and taken control of its deposits, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. announced Friday, in what is the largest U.S. bank failure since the global financial crisis more than a decade ago. Some say the second largest bank failure ever.
FDIC law insured accounts up to $250k, however most of the accounts at SVB exceeded that amount – meaning owners don’t get to see their money until after all the liquidation of assets is completed.
Tech start up companies are in panic mode. SVB was a big player in getting loans to these companies and these companies held their accounts with it. Now they are facing near total losses and the inability to pay employees from those accounts. This may result in the death of a lot of startups before the FDIC can get the books straightened out.
As noted by many, SVB had a lot of it assets tied up in Treasury bonds. The worth of those bonds has cratered as the fed increased its prime rates.
Adding to the mix, the potential that bank insiders saw the impending collapse. The SVB CEO, CFO and CMO sold +$4.4MM in stock over the last 2 weeks. CEO alone sold $3.57 million of stock within the last two weeks.
RELATED - Several regional bank stocks were halted Friday as ripples fanned outward from the SVB crash. These were –
- First Republic Bank,
- PacWest Bancorp,
- Western Alliance Bancorp and
- Signature Bank were all halted for volatility after sharp declines in early trading.
First Republic had fallen by as much as 50%. PacWest and Western Alliance had slid more than 30%. Signature was down by about 25%.
Other banks potentially facing trouble include –
- EBH Customers Bancorp,
- Sandy Spring,
- New York Community,
- First Foundation,
- Ally,
- Dime Community,
- Pacific Premier,
- Prosperity,
- Columbia Financial
Panic from the SVB also spread to china, where SVB has played a hugely important role in the country. Chinese startups can’t raise money from overseas investors in foreign currencies without offshore bank account. Opening an SVB account has been the easiest option. Now those startups are out their money as well.
OBSERVATION – This is a serious potential mess. A whole lot of folks are out of their money and many may soon be out of a job. Calls from the political class are already calling for a bail out which would be in the range of 2 billion dollars or more just for SVB alone. If these and other banks crash and burn as well, that bailout number will likely go higher.
Analysts over and over besides noting the high loan load, point to the devaluation of Treasury bonds and the loss of revenue due to the rise of the prime rate – resulting in the loss of the investment capitol. With the Fed now doubling back on its earlier announced plan to ease rate increases – in the face of the labor market ‘strength’ – and looking to resume aggressive rate increases, banks and other investment firms will likely face similar portfolio losses and have their financial solubility threatened.
Yield on 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes further inverted, with the yield on the 10-year falling 103 basis points, or 1.03 percentage points, below the yield on the 2-year yield. This dynamic has preceded each of the last eight U.S. recessions.
RELATED? - Wells Fargo on Friday scrambled to respond to customers who reported deposits were missing from their accounts. Customers complained about missing deposits in their accounts. Wells Fargo blamed the problem on computer errors.
More RELATED – Several days ago, Silvergate, the crypto bank, collapsed. The bank was where most of the big crypto firms went, because traditional banks did not want to do business with them. And that reluctance stemmed from warnings from regulators who consider the crypto industry a risky sector. The company said on March 8 that it intended “to wind down operations and voluntarily liquidate the bank in an orderly manner and in accordance with applicable regulatory processes.”
**
Jobs and no jobs. According to the BLS, the US added another 311,000 jobs in February, while wage growth cooled just a tad. The U-3 unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 3.6% as the labor force grew by 419,000. OTOH, layoffs from major companies are on the rise. What to base forecasts on?
OBSERVATION – Probably cooked job numbers versus the growing layoffs make for a confusing mix of signals. What isn’t mixed it the Fed’s view that the job market if too ‘strong’ and that they view that as a key driver of inflation. Therefore, the fed has pivoted back to plans to maintain aggressive rate increase – the announcement of which threw the stock markets down nearly 600 points last week before the SVB meltdown.
**
Motor club AAA put the national average retail price at $3.47 per gallon for Friday, an increase of about 8 cents per gallon from this time last week.
Much of the increase is attributed to the switch to the summer grade of gasoline, a switch that’s mandated for refineries by March 1.
CW2/Domestic violence –
I’ve noted a rise in violence by Antifa while supporting smaller events. Case in point at an Antifa protest against a meeting in Sacramento discussing reverse transitioning Antifa beat up two nonaffiliated journalists while the police watched and did nothing. Seems Antifa is itching for a fight and this may turn into a hot summer with a bunch of unaffiliated riots/violence by Antifa.
**
Visa Inc., MasterCard Inc., and Discover Inc., have paused their work on a plan to track when cardholders make purchases at gun stores.
“Today, there are bills advancing in several states related to the use of this new code. If passed, the result will be an inconsistency in how this ISO standard could be applied by merchants, issuers, acquirers and networks,” said Seth Eisen, senior vice president of communications for Mastercard. “It’s for that reason that we have decided to pause work on the implementation of the firearms-specific MCC.”
MasterCard said MCCs do not offer enough detail on specific purchases to be of much use in resolving larger issues surrounding the gun debate. The tracking system would only monitor the total purchases made in a gun store and would not distinguish which items were bought. Someone buying a rifle or ammunition, for example, would be put in the same category as if they bought safety or hunting gear.
Republican lawmakers in states including Texas, Florida, Mississippi, Oklahoma, West Virginia and Wyoming have responded with legislation that would prohibit or limit banks from using the IOS’ codes for gun sellers.
OBSERVATION - These cards have had significant push back on their implimention plans and certainly the legislative effort in many states to forbid such tracking are playing a big part. This will not stop the gun grabbers or WEF backed globalists from trying another way to not only track but eventually ban purchase of firearms and ammo.
**
When asked for a solution to new pro-life laws around the country, Jane Fonda declared that they need to “murder” Republican politicians.
Joy Behar immediately jumps in to claim “she’s just kidding,” warning “they’ll pick up on that and run with it.” Fonda gives a negative look.
OBSERVATION – Hanoi Jane just spoke what many of the Marxist democrats believe – murder opposition to secure their power. Communism has literally killed millions over the past decades to silence opposition and maintain their power. To them it is “wash - rinse – repeat”. Behar caught the truth being stated and tried to deflect. Sorry, damage already done and more of their mind washed, drooling followers fed the Marxist agenda.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
The FBI arrested Sarah Beth Clendaniel of Catonsville and Brandon Russell of Orlando, Florida, last month. Federal prosecutors allege that the pair were planning to destroy five energy facilities in Norrisville, Reisterstown, Perry Hall and other parts of the Baltimore area.
Clendaniel, 34, and Russell, 27, plotted to shoot up and damage the substations because they thought the attacks would “completely destroy this whole city [of Baltimore]” and cause a “cascading failure costing billions of dollars,” according to an FBI affidavit.
According to the affidavit, Clendaniel told a FBI source that she had a terminal kidney disease, was “unlikely to live more than a few months” and “wanted to accomplish something worthwhile” before her death.
Two months before her arrest, Clendaniel posted tweets to her still-active Twitter account, referencing previously attempted substation attacks. She also praised Adolf Hitler, the Taliban and Ted Kaczynski
OBSERVATION – Mentally challenged leftists who just want to destroy and create anarchy. Not the white domestic terrorist scenario the MSM keeps pushing.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The released videos from the J6 protest have combined with other formerly suppressed videos and leaked evidence from the FBI of govt malfeasance in the whole affair. Fundamentally, these videos are exculpatory evidence the feds withheld from the trials – a huge NO NO and has put fed prosecutors on their heels.
Now, the fed prosecution of the Proud Boys has blown up due to unintentionally leaked chat logs from FBI Special Agent Nicole Miller revealed she said she was ordered by her boss to “destroy” “338 items of evidence.”
The leaked chats also suggest Miller failed to reveal relevant communications to the defense, potentially spied on privileged attorney-client communications and was asked by another agent to “edit out that I was present” during a meeting with a Confidential Human Source Informant.
Basically, concealing evidence, doctoring evidence, destroying evidence and violating attorney-client privilege via intercepted / monitored privilaged communication.
OBSERVATION - As more of this evidence comes out – the more it is evident that the govt executed and participated in a fraud to frame any opponent of the current regime as a terrorist in a scheme to have their voices silenced and politically assaulted via a corrupt legal system. In a just society, the DoJ/FBI and others would be facing trial for these gross violations of the constitution and law.
**
Twitter Files follow-on. Matt Taibbi and Michael Shellenberger are two of the journalists who have participated in the Twitter Files project. They testified at the Hearing on the Weaponization of the Federal Government on the Twitter Files conducted by the House Judiciary this week. Democrats tried to smear their character as well as force them to reveal their sources. Attempts that failed epically. However, the simple fact that they tried so hard is disgraceful and reinforces the content of the released Twitter file reports.
OBSERVATION - Democrats have deemed these and others associated with similar releases threats to democracy and will do all they can to silence their voices. Besides exposing the vile puss of democrat censorship efforts, I doubt very little else will follow given that the swamp is in solid control of the rest of the govt.
**
Following a lot of heat for releasing the J6 videos to Tucker Carleson, Majority leader McCarthy has announce that they will become available to the public in general – ensureing wider distribution of the footage that has so far painted a significantly different story than that the J6 edited together in secret.
**
NewsGuard, a left-wing media monitoring organization which claims to rate the credibility of news websites, was awarded nearly $750,000 from the Department of Defense in 2021 according to publicly available records.
The revelation comes in the latest “Twitter Files” post by Matt Taibbi.
In a series of posts detailing internal communications among Twitter executives, Taibbi suggests a collaboration of government and the company of what appears to be a coordinated effort to censor or slant information available to the public and individuals — particularly conservatives.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/newsguard-pentagon-contract/2023/03/10/id/1111849/
OBSERVATION – Just more of the muck exposed in the recent Twitter files releases.
**
On another note - WASHINGTON (AP) — Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell suffered a concussion after a fall at a local hotel and remains hospitalized “for a few days of observation and treatment,” a spokesman said Thursday.
The Kentucky senator, 81, was at a Wednesday evening dinner for the Senate Leadership Fund, a campaign committee aligned with him, when he tripped and was admitted to the hospital, his office said.
OBSERVATION – This may affect his future plans in the senate and continued senate leadership – leading to a retirement at the end of his term at the very least.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Russia is rapidly losing its capability to sustain offensive operations in these fronts due to the huge resource drain Bahkmut has created. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures rising to the mid 30’s – lower 40s with rain/snow over most of the forecast period
RUMINT –
The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) are preparing for a counteroffensive, which will begin in about two months, Mykhailo Podolyak, advisor to the head of the presidential office has said.
“We are not in a hurry, we will reorganize over the next two months. We will exhaust the Russians in Bakhmut and then focus elsewhere,” Podolyak said in an interview published today by the Italian newspaper La Stampa.
OBSERVATION- Not a secret that Ukraine is preparing for an offensive and the time frame – post mud season – is well understood. Most of his statement is propaganda directed towards Russia.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Action has slowed down a little, though considerable fighting continues around Bahkmut and west-northwest of Donetsk. Russian indiscriminate artillery strikes hit Kherson and surrounding, killing civilians.
OUTLOOK –
(Reuters) - Ukraine has decided to fight on in the ruined city of Bakhmut because the battle is pinning down Russia’s best units and degrading them ahead of a planned Ukrainian spring counter-offensive, an aide to President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said.
NOTE- as I’ve said before, this is a Ukrainian rope-a-dope and on a strategic level it appears to be working, even though Ukraine is loosing ground, they are essentially preparing the battlefield for their turn and denying Russia key forces they will need to blunt any offensive.
Looks as Ukraine is trading terrain for time, allowing Russia to overextend and expose its logistics again. It has more lethal and accurate methods of attacking command, logistics and troop concentrations than ever before and they are appear to be allowing Russia to blunder into the same mistakes they started the war with. Russian gains are not without a high loss, while Ukraine conducts an economy of force operation. I expect to see the same slogs to continue and there currently isn’t anything to indicate that Bahkmut is going to fall in the near term. That my happen only if Russia is able to fully cut logistics support to the defenders - something Ukrainian reinforcements have been preventing.
Moldova/Transnistria -
US intel saying Russian agitators are seeking to stir up more trouble between these elements.
Israel –
Israeli leadership is recalculating its diplomatic efforts in the face of the recently announced Saudi Arabia/Iran diplomatic agreements.
Armenia/Azerbaijan –
Observers are noting that Armenia has been reinforcing its border strongpoints over the winter, apparently in anticipation of more attacks from Azerbaijan.
Misc of Note –
Monitoring the rain on snow event ongoing in Kalifornia. The focal point of the pineapple express seems to be central kalifornia/San Juaquin valley and associated Sierra Nevada mountain snow pack. Affects are being felt in N Kalifornia, but not to the same extent. N Cal flood control measures are holding. Flood control in the central regions is marginal.
.
OBSERVATION - As more of this evidence comes out – the more it is evident that the govt executed and participated in a fraud to frame any opponent of the current regime as a terrorist in a scheme to have their voices silenced and politically assaulted via a corrupt legal system.
These are coordinated attacks by a cabal ... Step one is finding out who connects to Congress, FBI, DOJ and Homeland. I'm guessing the folks are white gay 'elites' working in Congress for elected officials, black and sexual weirdos in the other organizations.
Once again, sanity is ripped away by Daylight Savings Time. When will those wonks in congress get a clue and end it?
OBSERVATION – WEF sociopath Belgium using the same game plan Canada did to shut down its trucker protests. People say the WEF has no means of forcing the world to do its bidding – yet here again a willing country/govt is doing the WEFs bidding in its war on food production and the foolishness of global warming.
**
A new, radical climate amendment that will be voted on by Berliners on March 26th in a referendum that could change Berlin’s climate targets to enforceable obligations, thus clearing the way for radical CO2 reduction measures by an unelected council.
Draft amendment: carbon neutrality by 2030 instead of 2045!
The amendment would be so radical that even Berlin SPD socialists consider it dangerous and speak of an “empowerment paragraph” in the law that would transfer immense power to a small group of unelected people, namely a Climate Protection Council appointed by the Berlin Senate.
Concerning paragraph 6 of the new amendment, “Immediate program in the event of non-fulfillment of obligations”, the SPD explicitly warns that climate targets have been changed to “obligations”, which would mean the Berlin Senate probably would have to implement immediate radical measures to achieve the obligations, even by court order.
OBSERVATION - Commentators note that among the requirements this may generate may extend to the elimination of cars, reduction in air traffic at the airport, property owners forced to make major renovations for energy conservation,
Wuhan virus –
Today we remember the great toilet paper run from three years ago
**
Congress passed and sent to biden’s desk the COVID-19 Origin Act, which would require the Office of the Director of National Intelligence to declassify all information held by U.S. agencies related to potential links between the Wuhan Institute of Virology and the COVID-19 pandemic. It is uncertain if biden will sign or veto the measure.
**
The Pentagon said in a recent letter to lawmakers that it could kick out as many as 16,000 unvaccinated troops, despite its coronavirus vaccine mandate no longer being in effect.
The letter, from the Under Secretary of Defense for Military Personnel Gilbert Cisneros, said that despite the mandate no longer being in effect, military officials “continue to review cases on an individual basis to determine appropriate action” for troops who did not get vaccinated and did not request an exemption.
That would apply to approximately 16,000 unvaccinated troops, according to the letter, which revealed that approximately 69,000 troops remained unvaccinated, but 53,000 requested some kind of exemption, either religious, medical, or administrative.
The remaining 16,000 could still be subject to separation, according to the Pentagon — despite Republicans forcing the administration to rescind the mandate late last year via the 2023 National Defense Authorization Act.
OBSERVATION – The message is that the leadership does not have the back of our military. Everything continues to scream that this is a deliberate action by the wokists to harm and demoralize our military.
Economy –
NOTE – Things are happening fast this morning so this section may be missing some of the latest.
Aftershocks continued to reverberate over the weekend as the powers that be scrambled to prevent a catastrophic series of bank runs and failures. For starters U.S. Yellen ruled out a bailout of Silicon Valley Bank, we’ll see how that plays out below.
The fallout from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) is beginning to spread around the world, with Friday’s dramatic failure of the US parent bank, which focuses on tech start-ups, the biggest since the 2008 financial crisis.
On Saturday, the leaders of more than 250 tech companies sent a letter calling on UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt to intervene. “The loss of deposits has the potential to cripple the sector and set the ecosystem back 20 years,” they said in the letter. “Many businesses will be sent into involuntary liquidation overnight.”
SVB had branches in China, Denmark, Germany, India, Israel and Sweden, too. Founders are warning that the bank’s failure could wipe out start-ups around the world without government intervention.
Bank #2 went down as the Treasury announced that New York State regulators are shuttering Signature Bank - a major New York bank - adding that all depositors both at Signature Bank, and also the now insolvent Silicon Valley Bank, will have access to their money on Monday.
The Fed announced yesterday that –
“To support American businesses and households, the Federal Reserve Board on Sunday announced it will make available additional funding to eligible depository institutions to help assure banks have the ability to meet the needs of all their depositors.
The boards of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and the Federal Reserve, in consultation with President Joe Biden, approved the FDIC’s resolution of SVB, according to a joint statement from U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg on Sunday evening.
The move will not lead to losses by American taxpayers and all depositors will be made whole, the statement said.
“Today we are taking decisive actions to protect the U.S. economy by strengthening public confidence in our banking system,” the statement said. “This step will ensure that the U.S. banking system continues to perform its vital roles of protecting deposits and providing access to credit to households and businesses in a manner that promotes strong and sustainable economic growth.”
The Federal Reserve is prepared to address any liquidity pressures that may arise.
The additional funding will be made available through the creation of a new Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), offering loans of up to one year in length to banks, savings associations, credit unions, and other eligible depository institutions pledging U.S. Treasuries, agency debt and mortgage-backed securities, and other qualifying assets as collateral. These assets will be valued at par. The BTFP will be an additional source of liquidity against high-quality securities, eliminating an institution’s need to quickly sell those securities in times of stress.
With approval of the Treasury Secretary, the Department of the Treasury will make available up to $25 billion from the Exchange Stabilization Fund as a backstop for the BTF.”
Contagion is spreading and the Fed/FDIC quick fix may not be enough. First Republic Bank shares are trading down 60% in the pre-open as regional banks come under suspicion of liquidity and solvency problems. First Republic Bank is the 14th largest bank in the United States, while SVB and Signature were the 16th and 29th largest, respectively.
OBSERVATION – From what I’ve been able to figure out from all this high faloouting financial papering over of this crisis is that essentially FDIC now has no caps on insuring deposits – thus covering the billions that were in limbo, as well as working to extablish a Fed backed expanded insurance plan. This is a bail out – no doubt- but one that bypasses the congress for now.
Another component is that banks that bought low interest rate long term bond can sell them and get current rate prices – IF I’ve read the material correctly.
Many I’ve read have wonders if it is sufficient to stop the further crumbling of dozens of banks nation wide and the shut down of thousands of businesses globally that had their money in one bank. Many think this won’t be enough as the fear has hit the market and people will be scrambling to get their money out of questionably secured banks into more protected vehicles.
BTW – apparently the individual in charge of “Risk Assessment” – who was suppose to look out after the bank and avoid messes like this – devoted her time to WOKE causes.
**
February’s Consumer Price Index reading is out tomorrow morning. Another month-over-month increase may put pressure on the Fed to forge ahead with another rate increase. This will add fuel to the ongoing banking fire. If the Fed pauses rate increases, some fear this will re-ignite inflation.
**
Bank Watch - Bank shares plummeted up to 74 percent in pre-market this morning despite Biden’s efforts to calm investors after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
First Republic Bank, whose clientele include Mark Zuckerberg, saw its shares drop as low as $21.50 from a high of $81.76 amid fears of a banking rout when Wall Street opens trading at 9.30am.
Biden is due to speak at 8am in an attempt to shore up trust in the sector after the White House yesterday guaranteed it would make SVB customers ‘whole’ and that ‘no losses will be borne by the taxpayer.’
In premarket moves, PacWest Bancorp’s stock tumbled 41 percent, Western Alliance Bancorp’s shares slid 33 percent and Bank of America’s stock fell 4 percent.
Banks across America are sitting on $620 billion of ‘unrealized losses’ - assets which have decreased in value but have not yet been sold - - the head of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation warned.
**
The Department of Interior (DOI) initiated a rulemaking process to “establish maximum protection” for 13 million acres of land across the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska. It was set aside by. Congress for resource development.
Biden added another 2.8 million acres withdrawn from oil and gas leasing in the Arctic Ocean off the northern coast of Alaska.
The DOI boasted in a statement about delivering “on the most aggressive climate agenda in American history.” They added gleefully that Biden “secured record investments in climate resilience and environmental justice.”
OBSERVATION – On going effort by the regime to harm our economy by making petroleum products more and more expensive. Remember, this doesn’t only affect gasoline - but a wide range of petroleum based products.
Invasion of Illegals –
A massive group of about 1,000 migrants have rushed a port of entry in El Paso trying to enter the U.S. Quick reaction by US border officials blocked the entry and prevented the group of largely military aged men to penetrate into the country.
OBSERVATION - Gates and riot control equipped border guards stopped it this time. Next time the illegals may well be better prepared to lethally force the gates.
**
The Daily Caller News Foundation has obtained maps and other information guides produced by the American Red Cross. They direct illegal immigrants on how to escape detection, survive the desert, obtain contraceptives, and even jump on trains safely. The Red Cross maps direct illegal aliens on how to cross into the United States safely and without getting caught.
OBSERVATION - Red Cross crossed the line back on 9/11 when they skimmed multiple millions of dollars donated to help NYC to buy office equipment (and other non-related stuff) instead. They should be charged with aiding and abetting human trafficking.
Biden / Harris watch –
Biden to talk on bank crisis soon.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Texas Department of Public Safety (DPS) is urging individuals to avoid traveling to Mexico after three Texans went missing in Mexico.
“We have a duty to inform the public about safety, travel risks, and threats. Based on the volatile nature of cartel activity and the violence we are seeing there; we are urging individuals to avoid travel to Mexico at this time,” DPS Director Steven McCraw said.
Lt. Chris Olivarez from DPS especially warned Spring breakers to avoid Mexico.
“It is too dangerous with the increase in violence and kidnappings that are taking place in Mexico. So very important and I can’t stress enough to those who are thinking about traveling to Mexico, especially for Spring breakers,” Olivarez told the Fox News Network.
OBSERVATION – Drug cartels are running rampant and even the popular destinations thought to be ‘safe’ are no longer so. Add a bunch of drunk highschool/college students will FAFO in a deadly manner.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Big 11 day exercise with S Korea listed below.
Cyber Warfare –
Using the current banking crisis as an excuse - DHS efforts are already underway to add censorship of “financial misinformation” to CISA’s portfolio of “critical infrastructure” domains it can classify tweets as a cyber attack on, & thus censor.
China –
See Xi contacting Russia and Ukraine (see both sections below) with the goal of setting up a ceasefire of some kind.
North/South Korea –
South Korea and the United States have started the joint exercise dubbed “Freedom Shield.” The exercise will last 11 days with no breaks and will feature full-scale field exercises. The Nimitz CSG and submarines are expected to be dispatched to the Korean peninsula to partake in exercises.
North Korea’s Foreign Ministry says that the “heinous hostile acts of the US against the DPRK have reached such a grave level that we cannot stand idly by”. North Korea fired two cruise missiles from a submarine off the coastal city of Sinpo on Sunday morning, likely as a response to the planned exercise.
OBSERVATION – Expect all sorts of NK rhetoric and more missile launches over the next two weeks.
Japan –
The Japanese government is poised to set up about 130 ammunition storage facilities across the country in the next ten years, gearing toward boosting constant fighting capability to tackle the Taiwan Strait crisis.
The first four ammunition depots are expected to be constructed in 2023 in Aomori and Oita, two prefectures in the Self-Defense Force facilities, then in other areas by 2027, totaling about 70, and by 2033 build another 60, said Japanese Defense Minister Hamada Yasukazu in the Upper House budget committee on March 2.
OBSERVATION – Japan can read the tea leaves and is readying for eventual war.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Russia is rapidly losing its capability to sustain offensive operations in these fronts due to the huge resource drain Bahkmut has created. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
Putin met with Kadyrov in Kremlin, and he still was pictured firmly grasping the table in front of him – renewing health rumors.
RUMINT-
A meeting between China’s President Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin may happen as early as next week. China’s foreign ministry and Russian officials refused to comment on the potential summit, but a Reuters source says the meeting will happen in Moscow.
**
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures rising to the mid 30’s – lower 40s with rain/snow over most of the forecast period
RUMINT –
Chinese President Xi Jinping will reportedly meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky the week following Xi’s trip to Moscow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Speculation that Xi is trying to broker some kind of ceasefire
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
While fighting continues to be fierce there has been almost no Russian progress in Bakhmut in the last few days.
Fighting has picked up around Avdiyivka, north of Donetsk as it appears Russian forces are attempting to bypass that town in a similar fashion as Bahkmut.
OUTLOOK –
Focus of Russian efforts will continue to be Bahkmut, but some believe their efforts have essentially stalled out and absent a significant increase in men and other resources it will go not much further. The Bahkmut pocket is protected on the north and west by rivers/wetlands and the south Ukraine is conducting counter attacks.
Ukraine is admitting their losses have increased as the Russians worked their efforts to encircle the city, but the fact that they have tied down a substantial number of better quality Russian forces – and are bleeding them heavily – has effectively removed them from defending against the Ukrainian offensive.
Speaking of the Ukrainian offensive, training of Ukraine forces on new, western equipment is nearing completion, with M2 and Panther trained forces nearing graduation. Instructors indicate Ukrainian forces are quick learners. Still looking at a couple months for soil conditions to dry out – meaning more training and integration – before the optimal window for an offensive operation can open.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Situation still tense as rhetoric continues to fly between the two elements.
Israel –
The new Iran/Saudi Arabia accord is being viewed as a strategic loss for Israel.
Iran –
IRNA, is reporting that Iran has arrested more than 100 people in connection to the serial poisoning of schoolgirls in that country. Iran’s Interior Ministry released a statement that the people connected to the poisonings had been “identified, arrested, and investigated” in several cities, including the capital Tehran.
OBSERVATION – IRNA is the propaganda arm of the regime, so this report should be considered questionable
Central / South America General-
The Colombian government and the leftist guerrilla group, National Liberation Army (ELN), have closed their second cycle of peace talks in Mexico City. (FO)
OBSERVATION – They have been fighting for about 60 years now.
Armenia/Azerbaijan –
Armenian news site Lurer reports that Azerbaijan has accumulated a large number of troops and military equipment on the Artsakh/Nagorno-Karabakh border with Azerbaijan. Bayraktar drones have reportedly also been brought near the border.
OBSERVATION – With spring comes war and it appears that Azerbaijan is looking to take advantage of Russia’s pre-occupation with Ukraine to expand its fight with Armenia to regain control of more of the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh border zone.
Misc of Note –
Rain in low elevations and foothills, and snow at high elevations, from northern to central California, as well as northwest Nevada, and Oregon is expected into Monday at a slightly lower intensity.
Rain and snow will intensify late Monday into Wednesday, with considerable flooding impacts below 1.5 km (5 000 feet) elevation across much of the California coast and Central Valley, and over the southern Sierra Nevada foothills into midweek.
Heavier rain, snow, and snowmelt are likely midweek, resulting in more widespread flooding from Tuesday into Wednesday, particularly in low elevations and areas with shallow and warming snowpack. Creeks and streams will continue to be vulnerable to flooding from additional rain and snowmelt.
OBSERVATION – More hazardous conditions in Kalifornia.