At least the Titanic went down with the lights on
Biden and his regime not so much.
Posted on 12/17/2022 9:38:35 AM PST by Kaiser8408a
Albert Collins said it best about the US economy under Joe Biden: “Lights Are On But Nobody’s Home”.
The Federal Reserve forecast for the US economy is a dismal 0.50% YoY. Do I detect a trend?
The FOMC forecast for 2023 and 2024. Core PCE YoY (inflation) is forecast to drop to 3.50%, still considerably higher than The Fed’s target rate of inflation of 2%. And unemployment is forecast to be 4.60%.
To cope with Bidenflation, US personal savings rate as of October is -67.9% YoY. The “good” news is that rents YoY are crashing. But food prices under Inflation Joe remain very high. But most everything is slowing down, not due to Biden’s policies, but a global and US economic slowdown.
With a big slowdown coming our way, you can understand why The Fed’s December Dot Plot is showing declining Fed Funds Target rate starts declining in 2024.
Even US mortgage rates are headed down.
Speaking of going down, cryptos are down across the board with Cardano leading the decline at -6.91%.
All aboard the SS Biden!
(Excerpt) Read more at confoundedinterest.net ...
At least the Titanic went down with the lights on
Biden and his regime not so much.
“US Real GDP Growth Forecast To Be Dismal 0.50% In 2023”
If correct, that’s not a recession, that’s a “soft landing”. Some other financial people are predicting that as well.
Are there no friendlies in Washington DC???
*************
Its a club and we’re not in it.
Some other financial people are predicting that as well.
**************
Some people predicted that inflation would be transitory.
Quite honestly, we should evaluate how we gauge economic activity. GDP is a relic of Keynesian economics, which anyone with an ounce of intelligence and exposure to other schools of economic thought, knows does not work. To be explicit, GDP includes government spending, as if that is a product that government makes. Government rarely makes anything other than a mess. GDP double counts. Some government spending trickles down to business producing goods and services, thus GDP counts government spending when it occurs and then double counts when a business actually produces something using government dollars. Those government dollars, or better stated taxpayer dollars, are extremely inefficient. They are taken from your paycheck, sent to Washington, then rinsed through bureaucracy, and redistributed in even more inefficient and wasteful ways.
Bottom line: government does not produce a product. Government employees don’t build anything. They are an inefficient overhead to all real domestic production. We need to make government as small as possible. That puts more workers and money into the private sector to make tangible products and services.
Is that including government spending, or actual US economy as in the private sector? Does the trend you (author) detect include the words "Hunker Down"?
Just yesterday, I made a separate trip to a 2nd grocery store to buy coffee creamer, because when my wife went to Walmart earlier in the week they were completely out the brand we use. And the price was 25% higher than a year or so ago.
It’s not a soft landing. Don’t be fooled. That predicted figure is only propped up with government spending. The Inflation Reduction Act kicks off the government spending spree on January 1. Government does not build anything. There is no real government product to contribute to the GDP. Private sector production will be negative in 2023. The writing is already on the wall. There were 100k manufacturing jobs lost in November alone according to the ADP employment report for November. That’s not expansion of private sector production. It’s the opposite.
“There were 100k manufacturing jobs lost in November alone according to the ADP employment report for November.”
**************
Lots of tech layoffs as well. Those companies know what’s coming.
Wall Street and Big Banks are laying off too.
Yes, yes and yes!
Instead of the tooth fairy "government multiplier" argument the government only does the reverse. It is a productivity decimator.
Where has government anywhere in history spurred on economic activity greater than private enterprise with the same amount of capital? It has never happened and cannot happen.
“US Real GDP Growth Forecast To Be Dismal 0.50% In 2023”
If correct, that’s not a recession, that’s a “soft landing”. Some other financial people are predicting that as well.
—
Are any of the metrics coming out of the government to be trusted?
There was just the rather dramatic revision of jobs added from March thru June of this year from 1,121,000 in the initial reporting, now revised down to just 10,500 net new jobs in Q2.
Missed it by *that* much!
“Some other financial people are predicting that as well.
**************
Some people predicted that inflation would be transitory.”
You know better than to use a jr. high level logical fallacy, try actual analysis.
“Private sector production will be negative in 2023.”
2022 Third qtr productivity down 1.4% (revised yo-yo 0.8% I think).
Can’t figure out how we can have 7%+ inflation and negative productivity? Weird!
Inflation is caused by too many dollars chasing too few goods. The government has pumped trillions of dollars in to the economy. There’s your source of too many dollars. They are either borrowed or printed. Very little comes from actual taxation. Then there is the problem that very few of those dollars actually gets used to producing anything. Add supply chain problems. Add a terrible energy policy. Add a horrendous regulator burden on business. Add a woke and dysfunctional culture that is pervasive in big business. Add a poorly educated and highly indoctrinated workforce that is generally pretty damn lazy. Shall I continue?
It’s really sick considering the natural blessings that America has compared to the rest of the world. We are squandering those blessings. We are our own worst enemy.
Anthony b sanders’ use of the term YoY is up 70% YoY because it is easier to say YoY than to say more than last year. Also to make it seem like he has more credibility YoY than last year.
True, it is easier to say YoY (Year-over-year) than to repeatedly say “since the same month last year.” I dropped him a line and suggested he explain YoY at the beginning.
I kind of expected this kind of ad hominem juvenile response from you. Not surprising at all.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.